Invest ideasNews
24 Mar 2026, 13:00
Bitcoin Bear Trend Remains Unchanged, But A Break Of This Trendline Could Change Everything
Bitcoin (BTC) is currently trading above $70,000 again, after a slight recovery from its ongoing downtrend that pushed its price to $68,000 last week. Despite the brief bounce, market analysts suggest that Bitcoin’s bear trend is not over and remains broadly unchanged. The analyst believes that the world’s largest cryptocurrency could still go much lower unless it breaks a key trendline that could change its trajectory. Why The Bitcoin Bear Trend Remains Unchanged Market expert CrypFlow has released a fresh Bitcoin price analysis on X this week, maintaining a largely bearish outlook for the cryptocurrency unless it can break out of a critical trendline. According to the analyst, Bitcoin recently faced another rejection from the Relative Strength Index (RSI) downtrend on the three-day timeframe. CrypFlow observed that each minor bounce into key resistance areas continues to be sold off quickly, underscoring a weak price structure . The analyst explained that Bitcoin’s continued downward trend, despite occasional relief rallies , stems from its consistent adherence to a distinct bearish structure. Within this structure, Bitcoin forms a Bear Flag , encounters a rejection at key resistance levels, and then resumes its decline toward lower levels. CrypFlow’s accompanying chart offers further clarity on this bearish pattern. The overall narrative is that the market has remained in a sustained bear trend since Bitcoin reached its peak. Based on the chart, the analyst identified BTC’s cycle top around October 2025, when the price skyrocketed above $126,000 . From that high, a clear descending channel formed, represented by two converging red trendlines that slope downward from upper left to lower right. As Bitcoin continued to decline within the descending channel, the cryptocurrency formed two distinct Bear Flag patterns. The first appeared around November to December 2025, where the price consolidated sideways within a rectangular range after a sharp drop, before breaking down violently again. The second and more recent Bear Flag is forming right now in March 2026. During this phase, BTC rebounded from levels below $65,000 and has since been consolidating within a rising wedge pattern. The emergence of a new Bear Flag continuation pattern suggests that CrypFlow anticipates another downward move if the price breaks below the current structure. The analyst highlighted a strong horizontal support zone around $62,650, noting that this level currently supports Bitcoin’s entire structure. This support level represents a critical line in the sand for bulls and bears, and a breakdown below it could signal serious further downside. On the bullish side, CrypFlow added that a decisive break above the descending trendline, potentially pushing Bitcoin’s price beyond $73,000, could invalidate the ongoing bearish trend and open the door to renewed momentum. Negative RSI Indicators Signal Further Downtrend At the bottom of his Bitcoin price chart, CrypFlow highlighted movements in both the RSI and the Stochastic RSI . At the time of the analysis, Bitcoin’s RSI stood at 41.59, confirming its dominant bearish momentum. The analyst also identified two “Oversold” RSI readings, one in December 2025 and the other around February 2026, both of which coincided with sharp price drops. Notably, a descending red trendline across the RSI indicates that each bounce has been weaker than the last, a major bearish signal. In addition, the Stoch RSI recorded readings of 79.57 and 89.51, placing the indicator in overbought territory. CrypFlow marked two separate “Bearish Cross” events on the Stoch RSI, one in December 2025 and the other recently in March 2026. A significant price drop followed the earlier bearish cross, and the current one forming now suggests that selling pressure may be building again, potentially signaling a stronger correction in the near term.
24 Mar 2026, 13:00
Bitcoin: What's Really Happening Despite The Bear Market
Summary The Bitcoin rice has reset far more than its adoption, with institutional and corporate demand broadening meaningfully. BTC’s supply is increasingly held by strong hands, with corporate balance sheets and regulated products like IBIT and STRC driving incremental demand. STRC, Strategy’s $5B preferred stock, channels yield-seeking capital into BTC, expanding the marginal buyer pipeline beyond direct crypto investors. BTC trades near historical on-chain fair value; catalysts include corporate adoption, CME’s 24/7 derivatives, and potential Basel regulatory relief. I think Bitcoin offers a rather favorable setup today because the price has reset far more than the adoption has. Bitcoin no longer trades like a euphoric asset, yet the buyer base keeps getting broader. What Drives Bitcoin Today Bitcoin still comes down to scarce new supply meeting variable but growing demand. 21 million BTC will ever exist. Less than a million are left to be mined over the next century. Demand is no longer confined to niche exchanges and retail speculation. Traditional brokers are offering BTC and other crypto, and even including the option to withdraw to self custody. The SEC approved spot Bitcoin ETPs on January 10, 2024, and the product set has since matured into a large pool of regulated access. IBIT’s current size on its own is enough to show that this is not a passing experiment. What’s even more remarkable is that IBIT’s options market has started to surpass Deribit in open interest and volume. Deribit is the offshore crypto options exchange that has dominated the crypto options scene for years. Combine this with the growth of CME futures on BTC and we see that the U.S. regulated derivatives complex for Bitcoin is signaling increased demand by more traditional institutions. Corporate balance sheets are now part of that demand stack too, and this is perhaps the most underappreciated even though it is the most important. Strategy remains the main case, but it is no longer alone. Over 2025 , the number of new public companies holding BTC doubled. Number of Bitcoin-Holding Companies (Bitcoin for Corporations) Almost half a million BTC—equivalent to half the remaining supply to be released over the next century— was purchased by public corporations in 2025 . This does not include private companies or institutional investors. Corporate Bitcoin Holdings (Bitcoin for Corporations) The important thing is Bitcoin does not need every public company to become MicroStrategy. A widening corporate buyer universe is enough to drive the price much higher. The question of course is why BTC still dropped 13% in 2025 even with so much buying. The answer is that a lot of early Bitcoin buyers were selling into this demand. Ultimately, price is set by supply and demand, and we saw an episode where the selling was stronger than the buying. What makes Bitcoin different is that there is a hard limit to how much the early BTC investors can sell, and some of the largest corporate buyers do not intend to ever sell (more on this in the next section), so the supply and demand dynamic is constantly one of moving BTC from weak hands into strong hands, which will likely lead to a supply shock. What the Market is Missing I think the most underappreciated near-term demand lever is Strategy’s preferred-stock machine, especially STRC. STRC is now a $5 billion asset even though it launched several months ago with a $2.5 billion IPO. Strategy issued another $2.5 billion in recent months via its ATM program, signaling the demand for this preferred stock. But what exactly is STRC and why is it so interesting to investors? First, I wrote a long article about it a few months ago. To keep it short, it's a preferred stock that adjusts its dividend monthly to keep the price stable at about $100 per share. There’s obviously lots of caveats to this and economic reflexivity we don’t have to get into, but the main point is that because the dividend is meant to hold the price stable, it pays a pretty high dividend. Currently 11.5%. Furthermore, due to Strategy’s negative taxable earnings and profits, the dividends are treated as return of capital, which means they go towards lowering your cost basis, effectively deferring the tax liability until you sell the stock. Something that pays 11.5% tax-deferred while maintaining a generally stable price is clearly interesting to people. This is why they were able to double STRC’s notional value outstanding after the IPO (which was also the largest IPO in 2025). The bottom line is that when Strategy sells STRC, it takes the money to buy BTC. So from this alone, we have a good way to think about Bitcoin buy side demand: How much do people want something like STRC? How much of the STRC acquisition will be met by Strategy selling it rather than an existing holder selling it? How much STRC can Strategy sell? Note that I do not assume all STRC buying translates one-for-one into future Bitcoin buying by Strategy, but it is enough to say the marginal-buyer pipeline is now larger than most investors appreciate. STRC buyers are basically “partial” Bitcoin buyers that buy BTC by proxy via Strategy. And the extent of the word “partial” depends on how much STRC is being sold by Strategy vs existing holders of STRC. Consider that in June 2025 there was no STRC. Today, $5 billion has been sold, so another $5 billion of BTC has been bought by Strategy. Without STRC, much of that $5 billion would have gone into other assets. This, I feel, is a good abstract model to understand the relationship between STRC and Bitcoin demand. STRC is part of a broader pattern of what is increasingly being referred to as “Digital Credit”. A company will endeavor to buy BTC and then issue credit instruments against it to buy more BTC. If BTC appreciates at a faster rate than the coupon paid on the credit, then the company is creating shareholder value. The credit instrument is called “Digital Credit” because it is backed by Bitcoin, which is considered “Digital Capital.” For Digital Credit issuers, the goal is to never sell BTC. If over a multi-year time horizon, BTC continues to outperform, then it is possible to issue Digital Credit forever against an increasing NAV in Digital Capital. The proceeds from issuance are used to buy more BTC. Eventually, if Digital Credit issuers buy up almost all the BTC that people are willing to sell, then each additional purchase will continue to drive the price higher, which enables more credit to be issued. There’s some valid arguments for the weaknesses of this theory, but it's important to note that all the issuers today are heavily overcollateralized. They own multiples more BTC than their outstanding credit. Some even have large cash reserves to instill confidence in their ability to cover dividends for an extended stretch of Bitcoin market weakness. So to summarize, I view the development and scale of STRC and other digital credit instruments as a very important development that has grown the pipeline into BTC. In the medium term, this will likely be more important than brokers offering BTC. And here is what I mean: If people do not want to buy BTC, they are unlikely to change their mind in the near future. But people are interested in fixed income and yield. Digital Credit is about channeling BTC through a corporate structure to deliver that fixed income or yield in a regulated form that people recognize. Today, STRC is the most liquid preferred stock in the world. On-Chain Signals The on-chain setup is good. Bitbo’s MVRV metric says Bitcoin has traded below 1.0 only about 15% of trading days, while values above 2.4 have historically occupied the hotter part of the cycle. Today’s 1.268 MVRV means the average holder is sitting on roughly a 27% unrealized gain, not the kind of broad speculative excess that usually defines a final top. Bitbo’s realized price is about $54,342, so a full reset to 1.0x realized value would point to the mid-$50,000s, while a move back to the 2.4x band would point to roughly $130,000. In other words, Bitcoin is much closer to fair-value support than anything else. Realized Price and MVRV (Bitbo) That is why I still like the long side here. By my reading, Bitcoin sits in the cheaper end of its historical on-chain range. Bitcoin has repriced sharply lower from its October 6, 2025 all-time high, yet the institutional channels that matter most have remained, if not strengthened. Other Catalysts I think it is interesting to discuss other catalysts. This gives the reader a broader view of what else is happening. The first catalyst is continued corporate adoption. I do not think the market has fully internalized the second-order effect of boardrooms treating Bitcoin treasury policy as repeatable. Consider how Square has rolled out Bitcoin merchant infrastructure to its U.S. customer base. This could cause a lot more smaller businesses and upper-middle class individuals to consider BTC. The second catalyst is market structure. CME said its regulated crypto futures and options will move to 24/7 trading beginning May 29 , pending regulatory review. It also said 2026 year-to-date crypto derivatives volume reached 407,200 contracts of ADV, up 46% year over year. This really matters because weekend gap risk and hedging frictions have always limited how traditional firms engage with BTC. CME’s new direction will ameliorate this issue. The third catalyst is regulatory capital treatment. The Basel Committee’s current crypto standard, implemented from January 1, 2026, still leaves most bitcoin exposures in a conservative bucket, including a 1% Tier 1 exposure threshold for Group 2 and punitive 1250% risk-weight examples for Group 2b. But Basel also said in February 2026 that it has expedited a targeted review of the cryptoasset standard and will provide an update later this year. I would not build a BTC thesis on a Basel rewrite, but even incremental relief would widen the buyer base inside banks and bank-adjacent intermediaries. Risks I think the biggest short-term risk is that the old four-year cycle still dominates. Bitcoin’s last all-time high was October 6, 2025. If that was the cycle peak, and if the usual post-peak bear phase again lasts around a year, then the more painful part of the downside would not end until roughly October 2026. The on-chain support zone I mentioned gives a framework to understand that we are currently in a relatively safer buy zone, but there is no guarantee that this region is the true bottom. A retest of realized price would imply the mid-$50,000s, and a deeper washout toward the kind of undervaluation 0.85 MVRV would point to the mid-$40,000s. The second risk is that the Strategy funding flywheel slows before the Bitcoin repricing arrives. STRC looks stronger than many skeptics expected, but the entire mechanism still depends on capital markets access. If demand for these instruments fades, then a meaningful marginal buyer disappears. The thesis can survive without Strategy, but the near-term torque is probably much lower. Conclusion I think the balance of evidence still favors upside from here. I rate BTC a Strong Buy. The network looks healthy, corporate and ETF adoption remain real, and Strategy’s STRC complex has matured into a meaningful conduit for incremental Bitcoin demand.
24 Mar 2026, 13:00
Solana Foundation taps Mastercard, Western Union, Worldpay for institutional developer platform
The platform is a toolkit that lets enterprises create and scale financial applications on Solana without deep crypto infrastructure expertise.
24 Mar 2026, 13:00
Solana lands Mastercard, Western Union on new dev platform
Solana is aiming to attract enterprises and financial institutions to its ecosystem through a new unified developer platform, which is focused on tokenization and stablecoins.
24 Mar 2026, 12:58
Bitcoin, gold correlation hits 3-year low, signalling end of bear market
For the first time in three years, the correlation between Bitcoin and gold has dropped to nearly -0.9. This is a dramatic decoupling, showing that Bitcoin and gold have been moving in opposite directions recently. While gold has weakened , Bitcoin has held strong around $70,000, signalling a potential shift in market dynamics. Historically, such extreme negative correlations have coincided with major Bitcoin bottoms and align with a long-term trend where Bitcoin is gradually separating from gold’s traditional safe-haven behaviour. Diverging performance sparks investor interest Over the past weeks, gold has lost ground while Bitcoin has shown resilience, trading above short-term moving averages. Analysts like Wise Crypto note that the BTC/Gold ratio has fallen about 70%, a level that in previous cycles has corresponded to bottoming zones. https://twitter.com/WiseCrypto_/status/2036322148923613638?s=20 This divergence has caught the attention of larger holders, with reports indicating that whale accumulation is increasing. When large investors build positions while broader sentiment remains mixed, it often signals confidence that the market is preparing for an upswing. Such accumulation supports the idea that Bitcoin’s bearish phase could be ending. Technically, Bitcoin sits above the 10 and 20-day exponential moving averages, but it remains below the longer-term 50, 100, and 200-day EMAs. This suggests that short-term bullish momentum is emerging, but the overall trend still needs confirmation from higher levels. According to analysts , the resistance levels at $71,645, $73,687, and $75,930 will be important to watch, while support levels at $69,423 and $67,167 provide potential floors for price action. Signs pointing to a possible market shift Experts highlight that the current decoupling is not random. When Bitcoin separates sharply from gold, it often marks a regime change in market perception. Some see this as a shift in how the market views Bitcoin, from a risk asset to a form of digital hard money. Macro and geopolitical factors also support this narrative. Bitcoin’s resilience during periods of global uncertainty has strengthened the idea that it may function as a store of value in a modern portfolio. If history repeats, Bitcoin could not only stabilise but also outperform gold in the months ahead. While caution is always advised, the combination of technical stability, declining BTC/Gold ratios, and increased accumulation suggests that the bear market may be behind us. For traders, the current signals paint a promising picture. The three-year low in correlation, along with other market indicators, could mark the turning point. If these patterns hold, Bitcoin might be gearing up for a new phase of growth while redefining its relationship with gold. The post Bitcoin, gold correlation hits 3-year low, signalling end of bear market appeared first on Invezz
24 Mar 2026, 12:51
QCP Capital Highlights Bitcoin’s Resilience as Geopolitical Tensions Shape Crypto Markets
QCP Capital sees Bitcoin showing resilience against escalating geopolitical risks and monetary uncertainty. US debt concerns and stagflation fears may position crypto as a global “escape valve.” Talks regarding Iran and evolving energy payment models could affect cryptocurrency demand this year. Continue Reading: QCP Capital Highlights Bitcoin’s Resilience as Geopolitical Tensions Shape Crypto Markets The post QCP Capital Highlights Bitcoin’s Resilience as Geopolitical Tensions Shape Crypto Markets appeared first on COINTURK NEWS .
