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13 Aug 2025, 11:30
Circle: My Bull Case Is Now Broken (Q2 Earnings Review)
Summary Despite Circle's revenue beat in Q2, my previous bull thesis seems to be broken. Shrinking profitability, a huge EPS miss, and declining margin guidance signal significant trouble ahead. The primary growth engine, USDC circulation, missed consensus estimates for the first time, challenging the narrative of frictionless, explosive growth for the company. Insider-heavy secondary offering post-earnings signals lack of confidence, with 80% of shares sold by existing holders, pressuring the stock. My operating leverage thesis might have vanished. Costly revenue-sharing deals with partners are eroding profitability and clouding the company's future earnings visibility. With profitability and growth momentum now in question, future earnings estimates are at high risk, making the stock's current valuation look extremely precarious. Intro & Thesis In my previous and only article on Circle Internet Group ( CRCL ) stock, which was published last month, I argued that Circle wasn't just a crypto company - it looked like a strong stablecoin pure play, which was profitable, and whose financials looked quite strong to justify the forward valuation multiples. The firm recently released its Q2 FY2025 earnings, and while they managed to beat the top-line revenue estimates, I don't like the fact that they missed on the key USDC circulation metric. In addition to that, just a few hours ago, the news broke that Circle is running a new public offering with massive insider selling, which is not a good sign, in my view. I decided to downgrade the stock to "Hold", waiting for the building pressure following the offering and probably a series of earnings estimates revisions. Why Am I Downgrading? At first glance, it looks like CRCL's Q2 print came stronger than expected, with total revenue of $658 million beating the $644.7 million consensus, but because of the IPO they held in June, and the subsequent SBC non-cash expenses, CRCL's GAAP EPS amounted to -$4.48, and it came in at a much lower figure than expected (the consensus was $0.34). We know that growth firms can miss because of SBC-related expenses with no market reaction, as most market participants understand the temporariness of such misses. But in this case, the SBC expense was close to $435 million, and the firm's net loss was at ~$482 million, which means that the profitability is kind of shrinking even without the SBC drag. So, one of the theses that I had in July - Circle's status as a unique profitable crypto play - isn't there anymore (at least for now). The management shared some guidance metrics to focus on, and we still see that ~40% CAGR for "USDC in Circulation", with RLDC margin at ~37%. If they do reach it, this will mark a decline from the 40% margin we saw in Q1 2025 (and from the 42% in the same quarter last year). Seeking Alpha, CRCL My July bullish thesis has weakened amid this expectation, as the "powerful operating leverage" I was referring to has vanished. Circle's high costs of partnering with distributors like Coinbase ( COIN ), and now others like Bybit, are clearly eating into profitability, and it can't help but raise questions regarding its future EPS visibility, in my opinion. The company's largest expense is revenue sharing with Coinbase, where Circle splits earnings on USDC held on the exchange. This arrangement means Circle's profits decrease as more of its $61 billion in circulating USDC gets stored on Coinbase rather than other platforms. This dynamic illustrates a common challenge for fintech companies: dependence on key distribution partners can create structural margin constraints that persist even as the business scales successfully. Source: Tech in Asia Also, it's hard to ignore the fact that the primary engine of Circle's growth - USDC in circulation - showed signs of a slowdown, because although this metric was up by 90% on a YoY basis, it actually fell short of the consensus expectations (albeit by What I couldn't pass by was the event that CRCL launched a new offering, selling 10 million shares, with 80% of those shares coming from the stockholders, according to Seeking Alpha News: Seeking Alpha News There's no problem in selling shares for future expansion, but in this case, when 80% of the offering is coming from the earlier investors, it looks like a sign of them simply cashing out. The timing looks weird as well - the Q2 earnings release had been published just a few hours before that new offering announcement. It's unsurprising to me that the stock is falling by over 6% after-hours (see the screenshot above) - an offering where insiders are selling four times as many shares as the company is raising sends a clear signal about their view on the stock's current valuation. By the way, speaking of the stock's valuation, it's hard to see the analysts' factual reaction on Q2, as there's no earnings revisions made just yet (all recent IPOs lack the timing on this kind of thing). Anyway, we still see that the consensus suggests a continued YoY expansion in EPS for quarters to come as the firm's revenue follows the "USDC in circulation" metric's growth. Seeking Alpha, CRCL's EPS revisions With the drag on Circle's profitability, which I think might continue further, there's a chance that Circle's EPS consensus figures get adjusted sooner or later. I'm cautious about how it can press the valuation multiple, although the FY2026-2027 ratios look reasonable to me. Seeking Alpha, CRCL's revenue forecasts On a positive note, I should say that Circle is still very likely to experience superior top-line growth rates in the next few years, thanks to the passage of the GENIUS Act in July, which brought in the much-needed regulatory clarity for the stablecoin industry. The question is, "How high can the margins stay?", with all those new revenue-sharing agreements between Circle and crypto players. The Bottom Line Overall, I can't say that I was impressed by the company's beat on the top line this quarter: While it's always great to see a beat, the post-IPO drag couldn't fully explain the massive EPS miss, and it seems to be masking the real reasons behind that miss. Among the main reasons, I see Circle's inability to maintain high margins with all those revenue-sharing partnerships. In addition to that, the new offering announced just a few hours ago came in as a bitter pill to anyone who bought the stock after its IPO. While I don't want to belittle the firm's future potential in revenue expansion and its prominent place in the stablecoin industry in the years to come, I believe the consensus estimates regarding its forward EPS figures can be hit hard. The FWD valuation looks reasonable as of today, but again, with lower growth rates in the future, the stock price can stay under pressure for longer. I'm downgrading the stock to "Hold". Probably you have a different opinion about Circle; please, let me know in the comments section below. Thank you for reading!
13 Aug 2025, 11:30
Top Altcoin Gainers: ETH, SOL, LINK, SUI & LTC Lead Market Rally
Ethereum and Solana drive market rally, breaking key resistance on strong volume Chainlink and Litecoin post double-digit gains, eyeing higher breakout targets SUI nears $4 resistance as altcoin momentum signals shift in market sentiment The crypto market is surging today, and if you’re watching the altcoin space, you’re seeing a wave of impressive double-digit gains backed by some serious trading volume. So let’s break down what’s happening with some of the biggest movers: Ethereum, Solana, Chainlink, SUI, and Litecoin, and see which of these rallies have real strength behind them. Ethereum and Solana Lead the Pack Ethereum climbed to $4,631.10 , gaining 7.57% in a single day as trading volume jumped nearly 44%. The move pushed ETH through the $4,500 resistance, turning it into a support zone. Source: CoinMarketCap Consolidation near $4,631 suggests buyers are willing to defend recent gains. A decisive break above $4,670 could open the door to the $4,700–$4,750 region. If the rally stalls, $4,500 and $4,330 remain crucial downside levels. Source: CoinMarketCap Meanwhile, Solana surged 12.66% to $198.07 , fueled by a near-doubling in trading v… The post Top Altcoin Gainers: ETH, SOL, LINK, SUI & LTC Lead Market Rally appeared first on Coin Edition .
13 Aug 2025, 11:30
Top Altcoins Under $0.50 to Watch in 2025
With the crypto market heading into a bull run, investor attention is shifting towards sub-$0.50 altcoins that are dominating the headlines. Leading the charts at the moment is Mutuum Finance (MUTM) and Dogecoin (DOGE). Mutuum Finance (MUTM) is at $0.035 in stage 6 of presale. Initial investors in the project will enjoy at least 400% gains once MUTM can be accessed on the open market. Mutuum Finance has already made over $14.3 million in sales and has over 15150 buyers for its tokens. Apart from Mutuum Finance, Dogecoin (DOGE) are still culturally relevant and resolute in the market. Dogecoin Holds a Niche in Meme Currency Market Dogecoin (DOGE) is priced at $0.23797 currently, recording modest intraday movement in a range of roughly $0.23 to $0.24. On-chain metrics suggest the institutional or large-wallet purchases are patiently building DOGE on recent declines, even as technical indicators show resistance within the $0.24–$0.25 area. As interest within the market expands to include fresh sub-$0.50 altcoins and meme tokens, DOGE is still in the conversation to some degree. However, new platforms like Mutuum Finance (MUTM) are stealing the show. Mutuum Finance Enters Presale Phase 6 Mutuum Finance is going great in presale. The project is currently priced at $0.035 as phase 6 gains momentum. Mutuum Finance is changing how DeFi operates by developing a financial system that has real-world uses. The presale has gained more than 15150 token holders with more than $14.3 million value of funds already locked in. $100K Worth of Tokens to Be Won Mutuum Finance has also started a $100,000 giveaway . 10 lucky people will receive a prize of $10,000 in Mutuum Finance tokens. The giveaway is an indication of the level of dedication that the project has towards having a long-term fan base and a dedicated fan base. Stepping further towards security and openness, Mutuum Finance (MUTM) has unveiled an Official Bug Bounty Program together with CertiK. The project team will be paying the participants a maximum of $50,000 USDT for finding bugs in the project. The goal of the bounty program is to gain a good coverage of all the classes of vulnerabilities. The program is categorized into the four classes of vulnerabilities in terms of severity, i.e., critical, major, minor, and low. Mutuum Finance is a P2C and P2P lending protocol. It is an end-to-end complete DeFi experience to exactly meet the consumers’ needs and relatively safer, more transparent, and diversified compared to the products of traditional centralized finance. High-Performance Lending Protocol Mutuum Finance is one of the top DeFi protocols in which assets are under users’ full control. It is a dual model of lending protocol that makes lending and borrowing highly flexible and efficient similar to Peer-to-Contract and Peer-to-Peer models. Peer-to-Contract involves a smart automated contract in which no human intervention is involved at any stage. Peer-to-Peer model avoids intermediaries and therefore lenders are directly risk-exposed to borrowers. Mutuum Finance’s presale sales of $14.3 million, over 15,150 token holders, and a $0.035 phase 6 price of entry identify it as one of the most anticipated sub-$0.50 altcoins in 2025. Coupled with Dogecoin’s $0.23797 market presence and ongoing institutional demand, both assets are generating high levels of investor attention. With a $100,000 giveaway and a $50,000 CertiK-backed bug bounty encouraging participation and confidence, Mutuum Finance is breaking new ground in DeFi innovation. Get your stake early and become part of an increasing community that is poised for substantial returns over the coming year. For more information about Mutuum Finance (MUTM) visit the links below: Website: https://mutuum.com/ Linktree: https://linktr.ee/mutuumfinance
13 Aug 2025, 11:29
Crypto Market Cap Hits $4 Trillion
The global crypto market has reached $4 trillion USD for the first time, with a daily jump of $48.6 billion (+1.21%) This surge, fueled by both Bitcoin and altcoin gains since the 2022 FTX collapse recovery, marks a major milestone. Bitcoin’s market dominance has climbed from 40% in late 2022 to 66% by mid-2025, showing its growing influence over the entire sector and challenging the idea of altcoin-led growth. Although ETH price might signal a change. Historical trends suggest events like the December 2024 post-U.S. election rally, possibly driven by macroeconomic shifts, played a key role.
13 Aug 2025, 11:25
Ethereum ICO Whale’s Crucial $10.42M ETH Move to Kraken Sparks Market Talk
BitcoinWorld Ethereum ICO Whale’s Crucial $10.42M ETH Move to Kraken Sparks Market Talk A notable event recently unfolded in the cryptocurrency world, drawing significant attention from investors and analysts alike. An Ethereum ICO whale , holding a substantial amount of ETH from the network’s early days, made a colossal transfer. Specifically, 2,283 ETH, valued at approximately $10.42 million, was deposited onto the Kraken Exchange. This substantial ETH to Kraken transfer, reported by the on-chain analytics firm Onchain Lens, immediately sparked discussions about its potential implications for the broader Ethereum market . Such large movements from long-dormant wallets are often interpreted as crucial instances of crypto whale activity , signaling a potential sell signal or a strategic repositioning. What’s Behind the Ethereum ICO Whale’s Significant Move? The recent deposit from an ICO-era wallet highlights the movements of early adopters. These wallets belong to individuals or entities who acquired Ethereum during its Initial Coin Offering (ICO) phase, often at significantly lower prices. Therefore, any movement from these wallets, especially large ones, garners immense scrutiny. The specific wallet involved in this instance has been inactive for a considerable period, making its sudden reawakening and transfer to a major exchange like Kraken particularly noteworthy. Understanding the motivations behind such a substantial ETH to Kraken deposit is key to assessing its potential impact. Decoding Crypto Whale Activity: Is It a Potential Sell Signal? When a large amount of cryptocurrency is moved from a private wallet to an exchange, it is frequently viewed as a potential sell signal . The logic is straightforward: funds need to be on an exchange to be sold into fiat currency or traded for other cryptocurrencies. However, this interpretation is not always definitive. Consider these alternative reasons for such a deposit: Portfolio Rebalancing: The whale might be diversifying their holdings, moving ETH to an exchange to acquire other assets. Over-the-Counter (OTC) Deals: Large transactions sometimes occur off-exchange through OTC desks, where the exchange acts as an intermediary for settlement. Staking or Lending: While less common for such large, direct exchange deposits, some platforms offer staking or lending services directly from exchange wallets. Therefore, while the deposit is a strong indicator of potential intent, it does not guarantee an immediate sale. The market watches for subsequent transactions. How Does This Impact the Ethereum Market? Any significant crypto whale activity can influence market sentiment and, consequently, price. A $10.42 million ETH deposit, particularly from an early investor, introduces a considerable amount of supply onto the market if it were to be sold. This potential influx could exert downward pressure on Ethereum’s price in the short term. Moreover, the news itself can trigger a psychological reaction among other investors. Fear of a large sell-off might lead some to preemptively sell their holdings, further amplifying any negative price action. However, the resilience of the Ethereum market often depends on broader trends and fundamental developments, not just individual whale movements. On-Chain Analytics: Tracking Significant ETH to Kraken Transfers The transparency of blockchain technology allows for detailed tracking of transactions, a practice known as on-chain analytics. Tools like Onchain Lens provide invaluable insights into large movements, including this recent ETH to Kraken transfer. By monitoring these data points, investors can gain a clearer picture of supply dynamics and potential shifts in market liquidity. Key aspects of on-chain analysis include: Wallet Tracking: Identifying and monitoring wallets associated with large holders or specific events (like ICOs). Exchange Flows: Observing the net flow of assets into and out of exchanges, which can indicate buying or selling pressure. Transaction Volume: Analyzing the overall volume of transactions to gauge network activity and interest. This data empowers market participants to make more informed decisions, rather than relying solely on speculation. What Should Investors Consider? While the transfer of 2,283 ETH by an Ethereum ICO whale is a notable event, it serves as a reminder of the inherent volatility and speculative nature of the crypto space. Investors should: Stay Informed: Follow reliable on-chain analytics reports and reputable news sources. Avoid Panic: A single large deposit does not definitively predict a market crash. Conduct Your Own Research: Understand the broader market context and Ethereum’s fundamentals. Manage Risk: Never invest more than you can afford to lose, and consider diversification. The cryptocurrency market is dynamic, and while whale movements offer clues, they are just one piece of a complex puzzle. Always prioritize a well-researched approach. In conclusion, the significant ETH to Kraken deposit from an Ethereum ICO whale is a development worth monitoring. While it carries the weight of being a potential sell signal , the actual impact on the Ethereum market will depend on subsequent actions and the broader economic landscape. Staying informed through tools like on-chain analytics remains paramount for navigating these intriguing market dynamics. Frequently Asked Questions About Ethereum Whale Activity Q1: What is an Ethereum ICO whale? A1: An Ethereum ICO whale refers to an individual or entity that acquired a very large amount of Ethereum during its Initial Coin Offering (ICO) phase, typically at a very low price. These holders possess significant influence due to the sheer volume of their ETH holdings. Q2: Why is a large ETH deposit to Kraken significant? A2: A large deposit of ETH to an exchange like Kraken is significant because it indicates that the holder might be preparing to sell or trade their assets. Cryptocurrencies generally need to be on an exchange to be liquidated into fiat or exchanged for other digital assets. Q3: Does this guarantee a price drop for Ethereum? A3: No, a large deposit does not guarantee a price drop. While it is often viewed as a potential sell signal, the ETH could be moved for various reasons, such as rebalancing a portfolio, facilitating an over-the-counter (OTC) deal, or even for staking/lending services offered by the exchange. The actual sale is what would directly impact the price. Q4: How can I track crypto whale activity? A4: You can track crypto whale activity using on-chain analytics platforms and services like Onchain Lens, Whale Alert, or similar blockchain explorers. These tools monitor large transactions and provide alerts or reports on significant movements of cryptocurrencies to and from exchanges or between large wallets. Q5: What is an ICO-era wallet? A5: An ICO-era wallet is a digital wallet that received cryptocurrency during its initial coin offering. In the context of Ethereum, it refers to wallets that obtained ETH directly from the Ethereum Foundation during its crowd sale in 2014, making them some of the earliest and often largest holders of the cryptocurrency. Did you find this analysis of the recent Ethereum whale movement insightful? Share this article with your friends and fellow crypto enthusiasts on social media to keep them informed about the latest developments in the crypto market! To learn more about the latest Ethereum market trends, explore our article on key developments shaping Ethereum price action. This post Ethereum ICO Whale’s Crucial $10.42M ETH Move to Kraken Sparks Market Talk first appeared on BitcoinWorld and is written by Editorial Team
13 Aug 2025, 11:23
Cardano (ADA) Shows Bullish Potential as Price Eyes $1 Amid Golden Cross Formation
Cardano (ADA) is currently experiencing a bullish trend, marked by a golden cross formation. This technical indicator suggests that ADA could soon reach the $1 milestone as market momentum builds.
