Invest ideasNews
22 Apr 2026, 15:55
Coinbase: The 16x EV/Adjusted Ebitda Valuation Remains Attractive
Summary Coinbase remains a Buy, supported by resilient Subscription and Services growth and a fair EV/adjusted EBITDA multiple of 16.3x. COIN's transaction revenues contracted 55% YoY in Q4 2025, reflecting Bitcoin price cyclicality, but I expect a moderate rebound in 2026. Subscription and Services revenue grew 23% to $2.83B in 2025, now 41% of net revenues, justifying a SaaS-like valuation approach. Risks include prolonged Bitcoin price weakness and competitive threats from traditional financial institutions entering the crypto market. This is my second coverage of Coinbase ( COIN ), following my previous article published about a year ago. In that article I analyzed Coinbase, arguing that transaction revenues peaked and would potentially retreat due to the cyclicality of the Bitcoin price. The second argument was that Subscription and services would continue to consistently grow and provide predictable SaaS revenue. Based on the 2025 financial results, I conclude that both of my projections have fully panned out. In this update, I will discuss these projections and what I expect for the foreseeable future. Additionally, I will analyze their recent Q4 earnings release, the GAAP losses, and lastly, I will provide my valuation estimates to justify the continued "Buy" rating. Contraction in Transaction Revenue In my previous 2025 article, I noted that Q4 2024 was an exceptionally strong quarter due to Bitcoin being near its peak and the hype surrounding cryptocurrencies being sky-high. I estimated that once the Bitcoin price dropped, the hype would subside, consequently lowering the transaction revenues, similarly to the 2021-2022 crypto period, after which the revenues contracted sharply. Q4 2025 further validated my thesis, as the transaction revenues contracted approx. 55% compared to Q4 2024. This was to be expected as the Bitcoin price dropped significantly in the second half of 2025. Although the management didn’t give any specific transaction revenue guidance, I am optimistic and believe that the Bitcoin price is likely to reverse in the near term. My reasoning is based on the technical analysis of the Bitcoin price and also the macro uncertainty surrounding the Iran war attracting investors to relatively safe assets like Bitcoin and gold. A rise in the Bitcoin price would in turn impact transaction revenues. I strongly believe we will see transaction revenues return to growth in 2026 at a moderate pace of low double digits. Subscription and Services Revenue The second main pillar of my previous thesis was the projected growth in the Subscription and Services segment. In 2024 it amounted to $2.3 billion. For the full year 2025, the segment grew approx. 23% to $2.83 billion. In the same year, subscription and services revenue accounted for 41% of net revenues. Therefore, I would argue Coinbase should trade closer to a SaaS company due to the revenue predictability of the segment. I will use this assumption in the valuation chapter. I would also like to point out that stablecoin revenue was the fastest expanding subsegment, with revenues reaching $1.35 billion. In late 2025, the Federal Reserve cut rates, but growth remained strong due to sheer volume growth, driven by the popularity of USDC. Any further rate cuts could present a headwind for the segment. Still, as long as USDC holdings are consistently reaching new highs, I remain bullish, and potential rate cuts are just a temporary headache. Valuation In this update, I will use the EV/Adjusted EBITDA valuation metric. I cannot use the GAAP P/E multiple the same way I used it in the last article because of the large unrealized net loss in Q4. In the earnings presentation, Coinbase stated that "Q4 net loss was $667 million driven by a $718 million loss on our crypto asset investment portfolio which was largely unrealized, and $395 million loss on our strategic investments (which include our investment in CRCL)." I believe it is best not to consider such noise, as it might give an improper picture of the profitability. According to Seeking Alpha , TMM GAAP EBITDA multiple is approx. 31x, but this includes the aforementioned Q4 GAAP net loss. Thus, we have to do the calculation ourselves. At the time of writing, Coinbase’s market cap is $51.4 billion. In Q4 the company had $11.6 billion in cash & cash equivalents and $5.9 billion in long-term debt. This results in Coinbase’s enterprise value of $45.7 billion. According to the shareholder presentation, 2025 adjusted EBITDA was approx. $2.8 billion, making the EV/adjusted EBITDA multiple 16.3x. To consider if such a number is reasonable, we must consider expected growth. Analysts estimate that FY2026 revenues will be roughly the same compared to FY 2025, before reaccelerating to 20% YoY growth in 2027. For easier calculation, let’s use an annual growth of roughly 10-15%. I am estimating a bit higher annual growth due to their history of frequently beating analysts' estimates and a potential rebound of the Bitcoin price. I believe that accounting for the projected growth and a large part of revenues being SaaS-like, Coinbase's fair valuation should be somewhere between a 12-18x EV/adjusted EBITDA multiple. The current 16.3x multiple is near the high end, but there is still some upside. As such, I believe the fair valuation is still a "Buy." Risks The main risk to my bullish thesis is if the Bitcoin price remains depressed for longer, delaying the potential rebound in revenue growth. Still, I believe the macro uncertainty around the Iranian war and the possibility of persistent inflation could provide a basis for Bitcoin's price reversal. The second risk is competitive uncertainty. If traditional financial institutions, like large banks and stock brokers, continue to expand their operations into the crypto market, this could create fear of increased competition, negatively impacting Coinbase’s moat and the stock price. Plan I believe that Coinbase is not significantly undervalued but is instead in the fair value range. For the investors who agree the current macroeconomic uncertainty will provide the basis for Bitcoin price appreciation, this stock is a "Buy." I count myself among such investors and plan to open small positions on dips.
22 Apr 2026, 15:32
Bitcoin tops $79,000 as crypto rally gathers steam; Circle, Coinbase, Strategy lead
BTC pushed to an 11-week high with dynamics for a short squeeze building, one analyst noted.
22 Apr 2026, 15:26
Shiba Inu Stalls as Zero Netflows Clash With Rising Memecoin Market Momentum
Shiba Inu trades in a neutral zone amid a broader memecoin rally. Market participants continue to assess unclear signals from on-chain exchange flows. Speculative interest builds across high-risk digital asset segments. Traders now evaluate whether SHIB will follow sector momentum or remain sideways. At the time of writing, Shiba Inu was trading at $0.000006258, up by 2.63% for the past 24 hours. Memecoin Market Surges as Capital Rotates from Bitcoin Market data shows the memecoin sector expanding rapidly over the past 30 days. The report shows 15.58% rise in total market capitalization to about $35.6 billion. Trading activity also increased sharply, with volume reaching roughly $3.79 billion, up 56.14%. Comparative data shows Bitcoin market capitalization rising by 14.06% over the same period. This pattern reflects capital rotation into higher-risk assets. They added that investors are increasingly favoring speculative exposure in crypto markets. Despite this broader strength, Shiba Inu has not kept pace with the sector’s momentum. SHIB remains less responsive compared to leading memecoins. This divergence highlights uneven participation across the sector during the current rally phase. Shiba Inu Exchange Netflows Stay Flat amid Weak Price Structure On-chain data shows SHIB exchange netflows hovering close to zero. This reading signals no clear dominance between inflows and outflows. The market shows no strong accumulation or distribution behavior at present. Price action remains constrained after a prolonged decline. SHIB continues trading within a narrow range near recent lows. The asset also remains below key moving averages, which confirms a still-intact bearish structure. Market data suggests early stabilization signals, but no confirmed trend reversal. Zero net flows often indicate indecision among market participants. In contrast, strong negative netflows would suggest accumulation, while positive readings typically indicate selling pressure. At the same time, activity metrics show gradual improvement. Data indicates rising active addresses and steady exchange engagement. This trend has renewed speculative interest across memecoins. They added that SHIB sits within the broader memecoin revival but does not lead it. Timing remains critical as lagging assets often follow stronger peers during sustained inflows. However, upside moves may lack durability without a clear accumulation phase developing first. Whether this neutral state resolves into accumulation will determine the next stage for SHIB. Until then, it continues to be a passive player in an otherwise active market.
22 Apr 2026, 15:09
International Finance Bank Confirms XRP as a Payment Rail Within ILP Stream Protocol
IFB Presentation Reveals XRP’s Role as a Bank Payment Rail in ILP STREAM Protocol A newly surfaced internal presentation from International Finance Bank (IFB), highlighted by crypto researcher SMQKE, is reinforcing a growing narrative that XRP goes beyond theory, positioning it as a live payment rail within the Interledger Protocol (ILP) rather than just a conceptual banking framework. The document, prepared for IFB’s technical and risk teams, details how banks can integrate with Ripple’s ILP framework. It highlights the STREAM protocol as a core layer enabling real-time value and data transfer across disparate ledgers. Notably, XRP is explicitly identified as the settlement mechanism powering that exchange of value. This distinction is important because ILP is built to be asset-agnostic, routing value across different currencies and networks. Nevertheless, IFB’s implementation points to a more specific role for XRP within STREAM, functioning as the bridge asset that moves value between systems. In practice, it serves as the liquidity layer that enables fast, efficient settlement across otherwise disconnected networks. IFB’s Multi-Rail Payment Strategy Reveals XRP’s Real Institutional Role Even more revealing is how IFB frames its payment architecture as a multi-rail system, where different networks are used depending on need, much like choosing between PayPal, Apple Pay, or a bank transfer. Within this setup, RippleNet, ILP, and Mojaloop sit alongside legacy rails such as SWIFT and SEPA. Rather than a one-size-fits-all approach, IFB applies selective routing. RippleNet—and by extension XRP, is deployed only where counterparties are already within Ripple’s ecosystem or where it offers clear FX and settlement efficiency. The takeaway is straightforward that XRP isn’t used universally, but strategically, wherever it delivers measurable economic advantage. Interoperability is also of the essence and IFB confirms that ILP can run alongside SWIFT gpi Instant, underscoring a broader reality that blockchain isn’t replacing traditional finance overnight, but embedding itself within it. The result is a hybrid infrastructure where legacy rails and blockchain networks increasingly work in parallel rather than in opposition. This convergence narrative is reinforced by estimates suggesting that 60% of SWIFT-connected banks already have some level of exposure to Ripple-related technology. Looking forward, some within the XRP Ledger community see XRP expanding beyond cross-border payments into decentralized finance (DeFi) applications. If that trajectory continues, its role could shift from a liquidity bridge to a core component of emerging financial infrastructure. In conclusion, IFB’s documentation stands out for its practical framing of XRP as a functional infrastructure within institutional payment systems.
22 Apr 2026, 14:50
Trump Iran Talks: Historic Diplomatic Breakthrough May Begin This Friday
BitcoinWorld Trump Iran Talks: Historic Diplomatic Breakthrough May Begin This Friday WASHINGTON, D.C. – March 14, 2025 – President Donald Trump has signaled that formal talks between the United States and Iran could commence as soon as this Friday, according to sources familiar with the matter. This potential diplomatic engagement represents a significant shift in Middle East relations following years of heightened tensions. The development follows months of behind-the-scenes negotiations and could dramatically alter global energy markets and regional security dynamics. Trump Iran Talks Signal Major Policy Shift The New York Post first reported the potential Friday timeline for US-Iran negotiations. Consequently, diplomatic circles have reacted with cautious optimism. Previously, the Trump administration maintained a maximum pressure campaign against Tehran. However, recent economic indicators and regional stability concerns appear to have prompted this diplomatic overture. Furthermore, European allies have consistently advocated for renewed dialogue. The potential talks would mark the first direct high-level engagement between the two nations since the 2018 US withdrawal from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). Several factors contribute to this timing. First, global oil markets remain volatile. Second, regional proxy conflicts have shown signs of escalation. Third, domestic economic pressures in both countries create incentives for negotiation. Additionally, the upcoming election cycle in the United States may influence diplomatic timelines. Experts note that successful talks could stabilize energy prices significantly. Conversely, failure might trigger renewed sanctions and military posturing. Historical Context of US-Iran Relations US-Iran relations have experienced dramatic fluctuations since the 1979 Iranian Revolution. The relationship reached a low point following the Trump administration’s 2018 withdrawal from the nuclear accord. Subsequently, tensions escalated through a series of confrontations. These included the 2019 attack on Saudi oil facilities and the 2020 assassination of Iranian General Qasem Soleimani. However, recent months have seen quiet diplomatic channels reopening through intermediaries in Oman and Switzerland. Expert Analysis on Negotiation Prospects Middle East analysts highlight several critical issues for potential negotiations. The primary concerns include Iran’s nuclear program, regional influence, and ballistic missile development. Additionally, the status of American prisoners in Iran remains a humanitarian priority. Dr. Sarah Jenkins, a senior fellow at the Center for Strategic Studies, explains the complexity. “Any successful negotiation must address both security concerns and economic incentives,” she states. “The framework likely involves phased sanctions relief in exchange for verifiable nuclear limitations.” The following table outlines key potential negotiation points: US Priorities Iranian Priorities Potential Compromises Nuclear program limitations Sanctions relief Phased approach with verification Regional proxy influence Security guarantees Regional dialogue framework Ballistic missile development Economic normalization Range limitations with monitoring Prisoner releases Asset unfreezing Simultaneous humanitarian exchange Global Market and Regional Impact Financial markets have already responded to the diplomatic news. Oil prices dropped approximately 3% following the initial report. Meanwhile, defense stocks showed slight declines. Regional allies have expressed mixed reactions. Israel has traditionally opposed negotiations with Iran. Conversely, Gulf Arab states have increasingly pursued their own diplomatic channels with Tehran. The potential talks could reshape Middle East alliances substantially. Key regional impacts include: Energy Security: Stabilized oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz Proxy Conflicts: Potential de-escalation in Yemen, Syria, and Iraq Arms Control: Possible regional missile limitation agreements Economic Development: Increased foreign investment in post-sanctions Iran Diplomatic Process and Verification Mechanisms Successful negotiations require robust verification systems. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) would likely play a central monitoring role. Previous agreements utilized advanced surveillance technology. These included electronic seals and continuous centrifuge monitoring. Additionally, commercial satellite imagery provides independent verification capabilities. The potential Friday talks would establish working groups for technical discussions. These groups would address specific implementation details over subsequent weeks. Political Considerations and Domestic Reactions Domestic politics in both nations influence negotiation dynamics. In the United States, congressional approval may be necessary for certain sanctions relief measures. Meanwhile, Iranian hardliners traditionally oppose engagement with America. However, economic pressures have created new political realities. Recent protests in Iran have focused on economic hardship. Consequently, the government may seek sanctions relief to address domestic discontent. The potential Friday talks represent a calculated political risk for both administrations. Public opinion data reveals interesting patterns. According to recent polling: 52% of Americans support diplomatic engagement with Iran 67% prioritize preventing nuclear proliferation 48% believe sanctions should continue without concessions 59% support prisoner exchanges as confidence-building measures Conclusion The potential Trump Iran talks beginning this Friday represent a pivotal moment in international diplomacy. These negotiations could transform Middle East security architecture and global energy markets. However, significant challenges remain regarding verification and implementation. The diplomatic process will require careful navigation of complex technical and political issues. Ultimately, successful engagement could reduce regional tensions substantially. Conversely, failure might exacerbate existing conflicts. The international community watches closely as this diplomatic opportunity unfolds. FAQs Q1: What prompted the potential Trump Iran talks? The talks appear driven by multiple factors including volatile oil markets, regional security concerns, domestic economic pressures in both countries, and European diplomatic encouragement toward renewed engagement. Q2: What are the main obstacles to successful negotiations? Primary obstacles include verification of nuclear limitations, addressing Iran’s regional influence through proxies, ballistic missile development concerns, domestic political opposition in both nations, and establishing trust after years of hostility. Q3: How would successful talks affect global oil prices? Successful negotiations would likely stabilize and potentially lower global oil prices by reducing geopolitical risk premiums and ensuring consistent Iranian oil exports to international markets. Q4: What role would the IAEA play in any agreement? The International Atomic Energy Agency would provide essential monitoring and verification of any nuclear-related commitments, using advanced surveillance technology and regular inspections of Iranian facilities. Q5: How have regional allies reacted to the potential talks? Reactions have been mixed with Israel expressing traditional concerns about engagement with Iran, while Gulf Arab states have shown more openness following their own recent diplomatic outreach to Tehran. This post Trump Iran Talks: Historic Diplomatic Breakthrough May Begin This Friday first appeared on BitcoinWorld .
22 Apr 2026, 14:10
Kraken files 56 million crypto tax forms with IRS for 2025
🚨 Kraken sent 56 million tax forms on crypto trades to the IRS for 2025. Most forms recorded very small amounts, many under $1 in $BTC and other coins. 💡 Key point: Even tiny crypto purchases in the US must be reported, raising filing costs for users. Continue Reading: Kraken files 56 million crypto tax forms with IRS for 2025 The post Kraken files 56 million crypto tax forms with IRS for 2025 appeared first on COINTURK NEWS .
