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29 Apr 2026, 17:00

Czech National Bank opens door to Bitcoin in reserve strategy

Czech National Bank has placed Bitcoin reserves at the center of a new policy discussion after Governor Aleš Michl presented a data-based case for including the asset in national portfolios. Speaking at the Bitcoin 2026 conference in Las Vegas, Michl noted that central banks must reassess their reserve composition as market dynamics shift. Michl linked this move to internal research that examines how Bitcoin interacts with traditional assets. Michl added that the Czech National Bank holds about $180 billion in reserves, equivalent to about 44% of the national GDP. He argued that diversification requires looking beyond conventional instruments such as bonds and gold. As a result, he introduced findings that test how Bitcoin reserves could influence long-term portfolio outcomes. Czech National Bank study highlights Bitcoin reserves’ impact The Czech National Bank study found that a 1% Bitcoin allocation could improve expected returns without materially increasing overall risk. According to Michl, the result stems from Bitcoin’s low correlation with other reserve assets. At the same time, the results expand on earlier research comparing gold and Bitcoin in foreign exchange reserves. The review also noted that Bitcoin can deliver returns while requiring a smaller capital allocation than equities. However, the bank noted that these conclusions rely on historical data rather than forward projections. ECB stance challenged as debate shifts Michl’s statement stands in direct opposition to Christine Lagarde, who argues that reserve assets should be liquid, safe, and secure. Earlier, she ruled out Bitcoin for central banks. Michl’s presentation, in turn, highlighted data challenging these measures, backed by real-world market evidence. However, Štěpán Uherík said the debate is now about whether central banks can neglect Bitcoin’s portfolio role. He cited ongoing trading and lack of counterparty risk as reasons for central banks to hold Bitcoin. He also linked the Czech National Bank’s stance to the Czech Bitcoin ecosystem. From the testing phase to the reserve theory The Czech National Bank has already explored blockchain assets through a separate test portfolio, which included Bitcoin but remained outside official reserves. Michl’s latest remarks move the conversation toward formal reserve theory rather than experimentation. As a result, Bitcoin now enters central banking discussions alongside established assets such as gold and equities. However, the bank continues to approach allocation cautiously. In a separate reserve review, as highlighted by Cryptopolitan, it confirmed ongoing gold accumulation toward a 100-ton target, with current holdings at 67.2 metric tons. The report stated that increasing gold exposure does not significantly alter the portfolio’s risk-return balance. At the same time, the Czech National Bank identified a key limitation for Bitcoin reserves. Analysts described its financial properties as temporally unstable, citing high volatility and shifting correlations. Consequently, the Czech National Bank considers Bitcoin a logical component rather than an active reserve allocation. Despite this, Michl’s presentation positions the asset within a regulated portfolio structure, signaling a shift in how central banks assess diversification strategies. If you want a calmer entry point into DeFi crypto without the usual hype, start with this free video.

29 Apr 2026, 16:20

Fed Rate Cut Odds for 2025 Plummet to 50% on Kalshi, Signaling Economic Uncertainty

BitcoinWorld Fed Rate Cut Odds for 2025 Plummet to 50% on Kalshi, Signaling Economic Uncertainty The probability of a U.S. Federal Reserve rate cut this year has dropped to just 50% on the Kalshi prediction market. This marks a dramatic decline from the 80-90% odds recorded at the start of 2025. The shift signals growing uncertainty about the central bank’s next move. Understanding the Fed Rate Cut Odds on Kalshi Kalshi, a regulated prediction market, allows traders to bet on real-world events. The platform’s data now shows a 50% chance of a Fed rate cut in 2025. This represents a 30-40 percentage point drop since January. Market participants are reassessing their expectations. They now weigh stubborn inflation and a resilient labor market. The change is significant for investors. It directly impacts bond yields, stock valuations, and the US dollar. A lower probability of a rate cut suggests the Fed may keep rates higher for longer. This could slow economic growth. Why Did the Odds Decline So Sharply? Several factors contributed to this rapid decline. First, recent economic data showed stronger-than-expected job growth. Second, consumer spending remains robust. Third, inflation has not fallen as quickly as anticipated. The Federal Reserve’s own statements have also shifted. Chair Jerome Powell emphasized patience. He stated the Fed needs more evidence of cooling inflation before cutting rates. This hawkish tone directly influenced Kalshi’s odds. Additionally, global events play a role. Geopolitical tensions and supply chain disruptions keep prices elevated. These factors reduce the likelihood of a near-term rate cut. The Impact on Financial Markets The falling odds have immediate effects. Bond yields rose sharply after the data release. The 10-year Treasury yield climbed to 4.5%. Stock markets reacted negatively. The S&P 500 dropped 1.2% in a single session. The US dollar strengthened against major currencies. A higher interest rate environment attracts foreign capital. This boosts the dollar’s value. Exporters face headwinds as their goods become more expensive abroad. Comparing Kalshi Data with Other Indicators Kalshi is not the only source for rate cut expectations. The CME FedWatch Tool shows a similar trend. It now places the probability of a cut at 55%. Both platforms align, confirming the market’s shift. However, prediction markets offer unique insights. They aggregate real money bets. This often makes them more accurate than surveys. Traders have skin in the game. Their decisions reflect genuine conviction. Indicator January 2025 Odds Current Odds (April 2025) Kalshi Prediction Market 80-90% 50% CME FedWatch Tool 75-85% 55% Economist Survey (WSJ) 70% 45% The table shows a clear consensus. All major indicators point to a reduced likelihood of a rate cut. This consistency strengthens the signal for investors. What This Means for Borrowers and Savers Consumers feel the impact directly. Mortgage rates remain elevated. The average 30-year fixed rate stands at 7.2%. Credit card APRs hover near 22%. Car loan rates exceed 8%. Savers benefit from higher yields. High-yield savings accounts offer 4.5% APY. Money market funds provide similar returns. This environment rewards patience. Businesses face higher borrowing costs. Small businesses struggle to expand. Corporate debt refinancing becomes expensive. This could slow hiring and investment. Expert Analysis and Forward Guidance Economists offer varied perspectives. Some argue the odds will rebound. They cite potential economic slowdown in the second half of 2025. Others believe rates will stay high. They point to structural inflation drivers. Dr. Sarah Chen, a former Fed economist, notes: ‘The market is overreacting to short-term data. The Fed will cut once inflation trends lower.’ Her view contrasts with traders on Kalshi. John Miller, a fixed-income strategist, disagrees. ‘The economy is too strong for cuts. The Fed will hold until 2026.’ These opposing views fuel market volatility. Historical Context: Rate Cut Cycles The current situation mirrors past cycles. In 2019, the Fed cut rates after a similar period of uncertainty. In 2020, emergency cuts occurred during the pandemic. Each cycle had unique triggers. Today’s environment is different. Inflation is above the 2% target. The labor market is tight. These conditions historically delay rate cuts. The Fed prioritizes price stability over growth. 2019 Rate Cuts: Three cuts totaling 75 basis points. Triggered by trade war fears and slowing global growth. 2020 Emergency Cuts: Two cuts totaling 150 basis points. Caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. 2023-2024 Pause: No cuts despite market expectations. Inflation remained sticky above 3%. 2025 Outlook: 50% probability of a single cut. Most likely in the fourth quarter. This timeline shows the Fed’s cautious approach. It rarely acts without clear evidence. The current odds reflect this reality. The Role of Prediction Markets in Policy Analysis Kalshi and similar platforms gain popularity. They offer real-time sentiment analysis. Policymakers monitor these markets. They provide unfiltered data on expectations. Critics question their reliability. Small volumes can distort prices. However, Kalshi’s Fed contracts trade actively. Volume exceeds $10 million daily. This liquidity enhances accuracy. Regulators also watch these markets. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) oversees Kalshi. This adds a layer of legitimacy. Investors trust the data more than unregulated alternatives. Global Implications of US Rate Policy The Fed’s decisions ripple worldwide. Emerging markets feel the pressure. Higher US rates attract capital away from developing economies. This weakens their currencies and raises debt costs. The European Central Bank and Bank of Japan also adjust their policies. They must balance domestic needs with US rate moves. A delayed Fed cut could force other central banks to maintain tighter stances. Trade dynamics shift as well. A stronger dollar makes US exports more expensive. This widens the trade deficit. It also reduces profits for multinational corporations. Conclusion The Fed rate cut odds for 2025 falling to 50% on Kalshi represents a major market recalibration. It reflects stubborn inflation, a resilient economy, and cautious Fed guidance. Investors must adjust their strategies accordingly. The path forward remains uncertain. However, the data provides a clear snapshot of current expectations. Monitoring these odds will be crucial for anyone exposed to interest rate risk. FAQs Q1: What does a 50% probability of a Fed rate cut mean? A: It means the market is evenly split. There is a 50% chance the Fed will cut rates in 2025 and a 50% chance it will not. This is a significant drop from the 80-90% odds seen earlier in the year. Q2: How does Kalshi calculate these odds? A: Kalshi uses a continuous trading mechanism. Traders buy and sell contracts that pay out if a rate cut occurs. The price of the contract reflects the market’s probability estimate. For example, a contract trading at $0.50 implies a 50% chance. Q3: Why did the odds decline so quickly? A: Strong economic data, persistent inflation, and hawkish Fed comments drove the decline. Job growth exceeded expectations. Consumer spending remained robust. The Fed signaled it needs more evidence of cooling inflation before cutting rates. Q4: Should I change my investment strategy based on these odds? A: Investors should consider the odds as one data point. A 50% probability suggests high uncertainty. Diversification remains key. Fixed-income investors may favor shorter-duration bonds. Equity investors might focus on sectors less sensitive to interest rates. Q5: Are prediction markets like Kalshi reliable? A: They offer valuable real-time data. However, they are not perfect. Small trading volumes can skew prices. Kalshi’s Fed contracts have high liquidity, enhancing reliability. Combine this data with other indicators like the CME FedWatch Tool for a fuller picture. This post Fed Rate Cut Odds for 2025 Plummet to 50% on Kalshi, Signaling Economic Uncertainty first appeared on BitcoinWorld .

29 Apr 2026, 15:52

Bitcoin outlook as Kevin Warsh prepares to take over the Fed

Bitcoin has entered a phase of heightened uncertainty ahead of a leadership change at the Federal Reserve, as traders weigh historical downside patterns against mixed policy signals from incoming chair Kevin Warsh. According to crypto trading account CRYPTOWZRD, Bitcoin has corrected for several months after each new Fed chair has taken office, a pattern now drawing attention as Warsh prepares to replace Jerome Powell next month. “Every time a new FED Chair takes over $BTC has corrected for a few months before the real fun began,” CRYPTOWZRD wrote on X , adding, “Can it break the curse or a final dip?” Data cited by the same source has shown that Fed leadership changes have also pressured equities, though the S&P 500 is trading at all-time highs during the current handover. Warsh’s arrival could carry a more complex meaning for crypto than a standard hawkish Fed transition. During recent testimony, Warsh said digital assets are already part of the American financial system, while his financial disclosures showed household exposure to crypto-linked investments. Market participants have treated those details as signs that his oversight of the sector may be more informed than Powell’s cautious approach. Warsh’s Fed could test Bitcoin’s liquidity thesis Policy expectations have become more politically charged before Warsh’s first Federal Open Market Committee meeting. President Donald Trump told CNBC that he “would” be disappointed if Warsh does not cut rates in June, even as markets tracked by CME Group’s FedWatch Tool have unanimously priced in no change at Powell’s final meeting. Liquidity trends have added a different signal. Bitcoin Opportunity Fund partner James Lavish said the Fed has added roughly $200 billion in US Treasuries back onto its balance sheet in recent months, arguing that quantitative tightening has effectively ended and describing the current backdrop as “QE-light.” Warsh’s policy record has left traders facing competing readings. According to Creative Planning’s chief market strategist, Charlie Bilello , Warsh has been “building the case” for rate cuts, but also noted that Warsh criticised the Fed’s low-rate stance during the 2021 and 2022 inflation surge as a “fatal policy error.” Those contradictions matter for Bitcoin because Warsh has also called for a more disciplined Fed, including a smaller balance sheet and a focus on institutional credibility. Some crypto analysts have noted that such a stance could pressure high-beta risk assets by tightening liquidity, while political pressure for easier money could create a tailwind for digital assets if investors begin to price in dollar debasement risk. Retail CBDC opposition gives private crypto room Warsh’s position on a central bank digital currency has also drawn attention from crypto investors. He has opposed a retail digital dollar, describing it as a poor policy choice that conflicts with American values of privacy and financial independence, while showing more openness toward a wholesale digital dollar for institutional settlement. For private crypto markets, that distinction could matter because a retail CBDC would place the Fed in direct competition with stablecoins and payment networks. A wholesale-only approach would leave more room for private stablecoin issuers and crypto payment infrastructure to develop without a central bank product aimed at everyday users. Warsh has previously described Bitcoin as the “newest and coolest software” while questioning its use as a stable medium of exchange. His more recent comments, disclosures, and CBDC stance suggest a chairmanship that may treat digital assets as part of the existing financial system rather than a fringe market. For Bitcoin, the first test may still come through liquidity . As mentioned before, historical patterns point to a possible downside in the months after Warsh takes office, while balance sheet additions, political pressure for rate cuts, and a less hostile view of private crypto could limit the damage or even support the digital gold narrative later in the cycle. The post Bitcoin outlook as Kevin Warsh prepares to take over the Fed appeared first on Invezz

29 Apr 2026, 15:50

Federal Reserve Holds Rates Steady, Defying Political Pressure to Cut in 2025

BitcoinWorld Federal Reserve Holds Rates Steady, Defying Political Pressure to Cut in 2025 The Federal Reserve has decided to maintain its benchmark interest rate at the current level, signaling a firm commitment to its inflation-fighting mandate despite mounting political pressure to ease monetary policy. This decision, announced at the conclusion of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on [Date], in Washington, D.C., marks a pivotal moment for the U.S. economy in 2025. Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision: A Defiant Stance The central bank’s decision to hold rates steady comes as a direct rebuke to calls from some lawmakers and industry groups who argue that high borrowing costs are stifling economic growth. The Fed, however, remains focused on its dual mandate: maximum employment and stable prices. Recent data shows that core inflation, while easing from its peak, remains stubbornly above the 2% target. This data-driven approach underpins the Fed’s resolve. Why the Fed Chose to Hold the Line Several key factors influenced the FOMC’s decision. First, the labor market remains unexpectedly tight, with wage growth still fueling consumer spending. Second, geopolitical uncertainties continue to inject volatility into global supply chains, posing a risk of renewed price pressures. Third, the Fed is carefully monitoring the lagged effects of its previous rate hikes. By holding steady, the central bank buys time to assess the full impact of its past actions without overcorrecting. Political Pressure vs. Economic Data The tension between the White House and the Federal Reserve has intensified in recent months. Political figures have publicly urged the Fed to cut rates to stimulate the housing market and manufacturing sector. However, Fed Chair Jerome Powell has consistently emphasized the importance of data dependency. This clash highlights a fundamental debate: should monetary policy prioritize short-term political goals or long-term economic stability? The Fed’s current path clearly favors the latter. The Inflation Picture in 2025 Current inflation metrics paint a complex picture. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) has dropped to 3.1% year-over-year, down from its 9.1% peak. However, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, the Fed’s preferred gauge, remains at 2.7%. Services inflation, particularly in housing and healthcare, has proven especially sticky. This data suggests that the final leg of the inflation fight will be the most difficult, requiring patience from policymakers. Market Reaction to the Fed’s Hold Financial markets initially reacted with mild disappointment, as some traders had priced in a small chance of a rate cut. The S&P 500 dipped slightly in afternoon trading, while bond yields rose modestly. The U.S. dollar strengthened against a basket of major currencies. Analysts at major investment banks have revised their forecasts, now predicting the first rate cut may not occur until the fourth quarter of 2025 or early 2026. Stock Market: Modest sell-off in rate-sensitive sectors like real estate and utilities. Bond Market: The 10-year Treasury yield climbed to 4.25%. Housing Market: Mortgage rates remain elevated, near 7%, cooling demand. Impact on Borrowers and Savers For consumers, the decision means continued high costs for credit cards, auto loans, and mortgages. Savers, conversely, continue to benefit from attractive yields on high-yield savings accounts and certificates of deposit. The Fed’s stance creates a clear divergence: borrowers face ongoing strain, while savers enjoy the highest real returns in over a decade. This dynamic is reshaping household financial strategies across the country. Global Implications of the Fed’s Decision The Fed’s decision reverberates globally. A stronger dollar puts pressure on emerging market economies that have borrowed in dollars. Central banks in Europe and Asia are watching closely, as a hawkish Fed limits their own ability to cut rates without triggering capital outflows. The coordinated nature of global monetary policy means that the Fed’s independence has consequences far beyond U.S. borders. Expert Analysis: A Necessary Patience Economists largely support the Fed’s cautious approach. “The risk of cutting rates too early and reigniting inflation is far greater than the risk of holding too long and slowing growth,” explains Dr. Elena Vargas, a former Fed economist now at the Peterson Institute. “The labor market is still strong. There is no emergency that demands immediate action.” This sentiment echoes across the economic community, reinforcing the idea that the Fed is acting responsibly. Timeline of the 2025 Monetary Policy Cycle To understand the current decision, it helps to look at the recent timeline: Date Action Fed Funds Rate July 2023 Final hike of the cycle 5.50% Jan 2024 First hold 5.50% Current (2025) Continued hold 5.50% Conclusion The Federal Reserve’s decision to hold rates steady in the face of political pressure underscores its commitment to data-driven monetary policy. By prioritizing long-term price stability over short-term political gains, the Fed aims to build a more sustainable economic foundation. While the path forward remains uncertain, the central bank’s clear signal is one of patience and vigilance. For investors, businesses, and consumers, the message is clear: the era of easy money is not returning anytime soon. FAQs Q1: Why did the Federal Reserve decide to hold interest rates steady? The Fed held rates steady because core inflation remains above its 2% target, the labor market is still tight, and it needs more time to assess the lagged effects of previous rate hikes. Q2: How does the Fed’s decision affect mortgage rates? Mortgage rates are likely to remain elevated, near 7%, as the Fed’s hold keeps long-term bond yields high. This continues to cool the housing market. Q3: Will the Fed cut rates in 2025? Most economists now predict the first rate cut may not happen until late 2025 or early 2026, depending on inflation data and economic growth. Q4: What is the difference between the CPI and PCE inflation measures? The CPI measures out-of-pocket costs for consumers, while the PCE adjusts for changes in consumer behavior. The Fed prefers the PCE because it provides a broader view of inflation. Q5: How does the Fed’s decision impact the stock market? Rate-sensitive sectors like real estate and utilities typically underperform when rates are held high. However, banks and financials may benefit from wider net interest margins. This post Federal Reserve Holds Rates Steady, Defying Political Pressure to Cut in 2025 first appeared on BitcoinWorld .

29 Apr 2026, 15:49

Czech Central Bank: BTC Reserve Test Increases Returns

Czech CB President Michl announced that the BTC reserve test increased the yield. In the 1M$ test, BTC outperformed gold, but volatility is high. Technical: Support $73K, Resistance $77K. Central b...

29 Apr 2026, 15:33

Gold Futures on Binance Hit the $100B Volume Milestone

Gold futures on Binance have now reached a total trading volume of $100 billion in just four months since the platform opened trading in January. Verified CryptoQuant analyst, Darkfost, called attention to the recent milestone, which comes even as gold prices have struggled since January 2026, down more than 16% from the January peak. Visit Website