hodler

12 Feb 2026, 04:45

Bitcoin risks revisit to $60,000 as liquidity gap widens and sentiment shifts

Bitcoin fell to $65,800 on Wednesday, slipping below short-term trend lines and keeping a retest of $60,000 in play as liquidity thins beneath current levels, according to Cointelegraph’s analysis of market data. Although at the time of writing, it has recovered to $67,326. Traders say repeated failures near $70,000–$72,000 have weakened momentum, and a quick reclaim above $68,000 may be needed to steady the outlook as risk builds toward lower support zones. Price action and key levels Bitcoin formed lower highs after multiple rejections around $70,000–$72,000, with the relative strength index trending toward oversold and price holding below the 50- and 100-period exponential moving averages, Cointelegraph reported. During the New York session on Wednesday, price faded from intraday highs near $69,800 and printed a swing failure pattern, trapping breakout longs and accelerating declines. An order block sits around $60,800–$61,000, an area where buyers previously stepped in after the yearly low at $59,800. If $64,000 gives way, traders see that zone as a likely liquidity target. Liquidity maps highlight a vulnerable gap Liquidity heatmaps show stacked orders above $72,000 but a “liquidity void” from $66,000 to $60,500, suggesting price can travel quickly through that area to reach stops below, per CoinGlass’s data. A final stack of leveraged longs worth over $350 million sits near $60,500, leaving the downside exposed despite higher visible liquidity. Trader Husky noted Bitcoin is slipping below the anchored VWAP from last week’s $59,800 low and warned that without a swift recovery above $68,000, the risk of further downside toward supports near $65,000 increases. For now, Husky expects a broad $60,000 to $72,000 range. Market analyst EliZ observed BTC consolidating near $66,500 inside a descending channel. A break lower could send the price toward the $63,400–$64,600 support band and raise the odds of a revisit to $60,000. Sentiment splits as institutions and pundits weigh in Beyond near-term charts, opinions on the asset’s trajectory remain divided, according to Benzinga’s roundup of recent commentary. Ark Invest’s Cathie Wood has trimmed her 2030 price target from $1.5 million to $1.2 million, acknowledging that stablecoins are “snatching the crypto payments industry away from Bitcoin.” By contrast, Bernstein analysts called the current slide the “weakest bear case in history” and reiterated a year-end target of $150,000, arguing “nothing has actually blown up.” Michael Burry contended the asset has been exposed as a speculative vehicle that failed as a debasement hedge, warning it could enter a death spiral and harm companies tied to it. Risk management voices remain cautious. Financial advisor Carolyn McClanahan recommends limiting any single asset to no more than 5% of a portfolio, while Jim Cramer questioned its reliability as a means of exchange and pointed to missed upside timelines. Flows also appear to be shifting. Citing CryptoQuant data, Benzinga reported that US exchange-traded funds which bought 46,000 units last year are selling in large quantities in 2026. Interactive Brokers’ Steve Sosnick summarized the moment as “Crypto is now for normies,” noting some investors are rotating to gold, which CNBC has reported climbed above $5,100 an ounce. Meanwhile, high-profile holders remain resolute. Michael Saylor said he would keep buying even at $1, describing the asset as a “swarm of cyber hornets.” JPMorgan analysts set a $266,000 long-term target based on comparisons to gold but called that level unrealistic for this year and noted it trades below an estimated production cost of $87,000, per Benzinga. The post Bitcoin risks revisit to $60,000 as liquidity gap widens and sentiment shifts appeared first on Invezz

12 Feb 2026, 03:55

Gold Price Plummets: Strong US Jobs Data Crushes March Fed Rate Cut Hopes

BitcoinWorld Gold Price Plummets: Strong US Jobs Data Crushes March Fed Rate Cut Hopes NEW YORK, February 7, 2025 – The price of gold experienced a sharp and significant reversal today, abruptly ending its recent rally. The precious metal retreated decisively from a two-week high after the United States Bureau of Labor Statistics released a surprisingly robust Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report. Consequently, this strong employment data has dramatically tempered financial market expectations for an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve at its March policy meeting. The immediate reaction saw spot gold drop over 1.5%, erasing gains built on earlier speculation of imminent monetary policy easing. Gold Price Reversal Driven by US Labor Market Strength The January 2025 Non-Farm Payrolls report delivered a powerful shock to markets. The US economy added a substantial 353,000 jobs, significantly surpassing economist forecasts. Furthermore, the unemployment rate held steady at a low 3.7%. Wage growth also accelerated, with average hourly earnings rising 0.6% month-over-month. This collective strength signals persistent inflationary pressures within the labor market. As a result, traders swiftly recalibrated their outlook for the Federal Reserve’s next move. The CME FedWatch Tool, a key market gauge, showed the probability of a March rate cut plummeting from nearly 65% to below 30% following the data release. This rapid shift in expectations directly triggered the sell-off in non-yielding assets like gold. Gold’s initial rally to a two-week high was predicated on a different economic narrative. Previously, softer manufacturing data and moderating consumer inflation had fueled bets that the Fed would act quickly to lower borrowing costs. Lower interest rates typically weaken the US dollar and reduce the opportunity cost of holding gold, making the metal more attractive. However, the NFP report fundamentally challenged that premise. It provided clear evidence that the world’s largest economy remains resilient. Therefore, the Fed has less immediate impetus to pivot its restrictive monetary policy stance. This environment of “higher for longer” interest rates creates headwinds for gold prices in the near term. Federal Reserve Policy and Its Direct Impact on Precious Metals The relationship between Federal Reserve policy and gold prices is well-established and multifaceted. Primarily, gold is priced in US dollars globally. When the Fed signals higher interest rates, it often strengthens the dollar. A stronger dollar makes gold more expensive for holders of other currencies, dampening international demand. Additionally, higher US Treasury yields, which rise with rate expectations, offer investors a competitive, income-generating alternative to gold, which pays no interest. The table below illustrates the typical correlation: Fed Policy Signal Typical USD Impact Typical Treasury Yield Impact Resulting Pressure on Gold Hawkish (Rate Hikes/Holds) Strengthens Rises Downward Dovish (Rate Cuts) Weakens Falls Upward Following the NFP data, commentary from Fed officials reinforced the market’s reassessment. Several voting members of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) emphasized the need for continued patience. They stated that more consistent evidence of inflation trending sustainably toward the 2% target is required before considering rate reductions. This official rhetoric further solidified the view that March is likely too early for a policy shift. Consequently, the market’s focus has now shifted to the Fed’s May or June meetings as the potential starting point for the easing cycle. Expert Analysis on Market Dynamics and Future Trajectory Market analysts and seasoned economists point to the historical precedent of gold reacting sharply to labor market surprises. “The NFP report was a classic ‘data-dependent’ moment for the Fed,” noted Dr. Anya Sharma, Chief Economist at Global Markets Insight. “Gold had priced in a dovish pivot that the data simply did not support. The sell-off was a necessary correction to align prices with the new, reduced probability of a March cut.” Sharma further explained that while the near-term path is challenging, structural support for gold remains from other sources. These supportive factors include: Central Bank Demand: Institutions like the People’s Bank of China continue to be consistent net buyers of gold, diversifying reserves away from the US dollar. Geopolitical Uncertainty: Ongoing conflicts and global tensions sustain a baseline of safe-haven demand. Inflation Hedge: Despite moderating, inflation remains above pre-pandemic levels, preserving gold’s long-term appeal as a store of value. Technical analysts are now watching key support levels for gold. The $2,015 per ounce zone, which held firm in late January, is seen as critical. A breach below this level could signal a deeper correction toward $1,980. Conversely, a rebound above $2,065 would be needed to restore the short-term bullish technical structure. Trading volume during the sell-off was notably high, confirming the conviction behind the move. Broader Market Implications and Global Context The reverberations from the strong US jobs data and shifting Fed expectations extended far beyond the gold market. The US Dollar Index (DXY) surged to its highest level in over a month, gaining against a basket of major currencies. Simultaneously, major US equity indices experienced volatility, with rate-sensitive technology stocks facing particular pressure. In the bond market, the yield on the benchmark 10-year US Treasury note jumped over 15 basis points. This interconnected reaction underscores the dominant role US monetary policy plays in global capital allocation. Internationally, the dynamics create a complex environment for other central banks. The European Central Bank and the Bank of England, for instance, may now feel less pressure to front-run the Fed with aggressive rate cuts of their own. This could lead to a broader period of monetary policy stability across major economies. For commodity markets, a stronger dollar generally weighs on prices priced in that currency, including oil and industrial metals. However, gold’s unique status as a financial asset often sees it react more directly to real interest rate expectations than to broad commodity trends. Looking ahead, the next major data points that will influence the gold price and Fed bets include the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) reports for January. Any sign of re-accelerating inflation would further delay rate cut expectations, potentially extending pressure on gold. Conversely, a significant cooling in price pressures could revive the narrative for earlier Fed action, providing a catalyst for gold to recover its recent losses. The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, the Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, will be the final critical piece of data before the March FOMC meeting. Conclusion The retreat in the gold price from its two-week high serves as a potent reminder of the precious metal’s acute sensitivity to US monetary policy expectations. The unexpectedly strong January Non-Farm Payrolls report acted as the definitive catalyst, forcing markets to dramatically scale back bets on a March Federal Reserve rate cut. This reassessment triggered a classic reaction: a stronger US dollar, higher Treasury yields, and a sell-off in non-yielding gold. While structural supports from central bank buying and geopolitical risk remain, the near-term trajectory for the gold price will be predominantly dictated by incoming US economic data and the evolving signals from the Federal Reserve. The path forward hinges on the ongoing tension between a resilient labor market and the broader goal of returning inflation to the central bank’s 2% target. FAQs Q1: Why does strong jobs data make gold prices fall? A1: Strong jobs data, like the NFP report, suggests a resilient economy with potential wage-driven inflation. This makes the Federal Reserve less likely to cut interest rates quickly. Higher expected rates boost the US dollar and Treasury yields, making non-yielding gold less attractive by comparison, which triggers selling pressure. Q2: What is the ‘Fed rate cut bet’ mentioned in the article? A2: This refers to the probability or expectation that traders and investors assign to the Federal Reserve lowering its benchmark interest rate at an upcoming meeting. These bets are tracked via tools like the CME FedWatch Tool and shift constantly based on new economic data, like jobs reports and inflation figures. Q3: Does this mean the rally in gold is over? A3: Not necessarily. While the strong NFP data has delayed expectations for near-term Fed rate cuts, creating a headwind, other factors support gold. Sustained central bank purchases, geopolitical uncertainty, and its role as a long-term inflation hedge can provide a price floor and drive future rallies, especially if economic data softens. Q4: How does the US dollar’s strength affect gold? A4: Gold is globally traded in US dollars. When the dollar strengthens, it takes more of other currencies (like euros or yen) to buy the same ounce of gold. This makes gold more expensive for international buyers, often reducing demand and putting downward pressure on its dollar-denominated price. Q5: What should investors watch next for clues on gold’s direction? A5: Investors should closely monitor the next US Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Core PCE inflation reports. Additionally, any speeches from Federal Reserve officials will be scrutinized for hints on the timing of rate cuts. Geopolitical developments and data on central bank gold reserves will also be key factors influencing the market. This post Gold Price Plummets: Strong US Jobs Data Crushes March Fed Rate Cut Hopes first appeared on BitcoinWorld .

12 Feb 2026, 03:45

EUR/USD Analysis: Divergent Fed-ECB Expectations Offer Crucial Support Below 1.1900

BitcoinWorld EUR/USD Analysis: Divergent Fed-ECB Expectations Offer Crucial Support Below 1.1900 The EUR/USD currency pair, a critical benchmark for global financial markets, continues to trade in a consolidated range below the psychologically significant 1.1900 level. This stability, observed in early 2025 trading sessions, masks a deeper fundamental struggle. The primary driver providing a floor for the euro against the dollar is the growing divergence in monetary policy expectations between the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank. Consequently, traders are carefully weighing the trajectory of interest rates on both sides of the Atlantic, leading to a period of cautious equilibrium. EUR/USD Technical Landscape and Immediate Catalysts Recent price action shows the EUR/USD pair exhibiting limited directional momentum. Market participants have encountered strong resistance near the 1.1900 handle, a level that has acted as a pivot point throughout the first quarter of 2025. Several technical factors contribute to this consolidation. Firstly, moving averages have converged, indicating a lack of strong trend. Secondly, trading volumes have moderated from earlier peaks, suggesting a period of reassessment. The immediate catalyst for any breakout will likely stem from macroeconomic data releases, particularly inflation prints and employment figures from the United States and the Eurozone. Key technical levels to monitor include: Immediate Resistance: 1.1900 – 1.1920 zone Primary Support: 1.1800 – 1.1820 area 200-Day Moving Average: Currently acting as dynamic support near 1.1850 This technical setup reflects the market’s indecision. Traders are awaiting clearer signals from central bank communications before committing to a sustained directional move. The Core Fundamental Driver: Monetary Policy Divergence The underlying support for the euro stems directly from shifting expectations for the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank. In late 2024, the narrative began to change. The Federal Reserve, having aggressively tightened policy to combat inflation, signaled a potential pause or even a pivot toward rate cuts as price pressures showed signs of moderating. Conversely, the European Central Bank maintained a more cautious stance, with policymakers emphasizing the persistence of core inflation and the need for restrictive policy to remain in place for longer. Expert Analysis on Central Bank Trajectories This divergence creates a complex dynamic for the EUR/USD pair. Historically, narrowing interest rate differentials between the US and the Eurozone tend to weaken the US dollar, all else being equal. Market pricing, as derived from futures contracts, now implies a different path for each central bank. The Fed is widely expected to begin an easing cycle in mid-2025, while the ECB is projected to hold rates steady for a more extended period, with cuts potentially delayed until late 2025 or early 2026. This expectation gap provides a fundamental cushion for the euro, preventing a more severe decline despite other headwinds like relative economic growth differentials. The following table summarizes the key policy expectations as priced in by financial markets for Q1 2025: Central Bank Current Policy Rate Market Expectation (Next 6 Months) Primary Concern Federal Reserve (Fed) 4.50% – 4.75% 25-50 bps of rate cuts Balancing inflation control with economic growth European Central Bank (ECB) 3.75% Hold steady, possible late 2025 cut Persistent core inflation and wage growth Broader Market Context and Risk Sentiment Beyond direct central bank policy, the EUR/USD pair remains sensitive to global risk sentiment. The US dollar often functions as a safe-haven currency during periods of market stress or geopolitical uncertainty. However, in the current environment, a measured improvement in global economic forecasts has tempered demand for the dollar’s safe-haven properties. Furthermore, energy market stability, particularly in European natural gas prices, has removed a significant headwind that plagued the euro throughout 2022 and 2023. This stability reduces a key import cost for the Eurozone, improving its terms of trade and providing another layer of support for the currency. Institutional flow data also reveals nuanced positioning. Hedge funds and asset managers have reduced extreme short positions on the euro accumulated during the previous hiking cycle. This repositioning reduces selling pressure and creates a more balanced market. Meanwhile, corporate hedging activity ahead of expected currency volatility later in the year has increased, adding liquidity but also creating pockets of resistance and support at key technical levels. Conclusion The EUR/USD pair’s consolidation below 1.1900 represents a market in equilibrium, balancing competing fundamental forces. While technical resistance is evident, the pair finds crucial underlying support from the divergent monetary policy expectations between the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank. The market’s current pricing, which anticipates earlier Fed easing relative to ECB action, acts as a buffer for the euro. Moving forward, the trajectory of the EUR/USD will hinge on incoming inflation and growth data, which will either confirm or challenge these policy divergence expectations. Traders should monitor central bank communication closely, as any shift in rhetoric from either the Fed or the ECB will likely catalyze the next significant move in this pivotal currency pair. FAQs Q1: What does “divergent Fed-ECB expectations” mean for EUR/USD? It refers to the market anticipating different future interest rate paths. If the Fed is expected to cut rates before or more aggressively than the ECB, it typically weakens the US dollar relative to the euro, providing support for the EUR/USD exchange rate. Q2: Why is the 1.1900 level psychologically important? Major round numbers like 1.1900 often act as mental barriers for traders. They concentrate liquidity, serve as targets for profit-taking, and can trigger automated trading orders, making them key levels for technical analysis and market sentiment. Q3: What economic data most impacts EUR/USD direction? Inflation reports (CPI/HICP), employment data (Non-Farm Payrolls, EU Unemployment), and GDP growth figures from both the US and Eurozone are primary drivers. Central bank meeting minutes and speeches by officials like the Fed Chair and ECB President are also critical. Q4: How does risk sentiment affect the pair? The US dollar is often seen as a safe-haven asset. During market turmoil or geopolitical stress, demand for USD typically rises, putting downward pressure on EUR/USD. In calm or optimistic market environments, the pair may find it easier to rise. Q5: What is the main risk to the current supportive outlook for EUR/USD? The key risk is a shift in central bank messaging. If US inflation proves more persistent, forcing the Fed to delay cuts, or if Eurozone growth deteriorates sharply, prompting the ECB to signal earlier easing, the current policy divergence supporting the euro could quickly unravel. This post EUR/USD Analysis: Divergent Fed-ECB Expectations Offer Crucial Support Below 1.1900 first appeared on BitcoinWorld .

12 Feb 2026, 03:15

USD/JPY Forecast: Critical 200-Day EMA Looms as Bears Maintain Relentless Pressure Below 153.00

BitcoinWorld USD/JPY Forecast: Critical 200-Day EMA Looms as Bears Maintain Relentless Pressure Below 153.00 In global forex markets today, the USD/JPY currency pair presents a compelling technical narrative as it approaches a pivotal long-term indicator. The pair’s price action shows bears firmly in control below the psychologically significant 153.00 level, steering it toward a consequential test of the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA). This movement occurs against a complex backdrop of shifting monetary policy expectations and geopolitical crosscurrents affecting both the US dollar and Japanese yen. USD/JPY Technical Forecast: Bears Dominate Below 153.00 The USD/JPY pair’s failure to sustain momentum above 153.00 represents a notable shift in market sentiment. Throughout recent sessions, sellers have consistently emerged near this level, creating a formidable resistance zone. Consequently, the pair has embarked on a gradual descent toward its 200-day EMA, a benchmark widely monitored by institutional and retail traders alike for determining the primary trend’s health. This bearish pressure manifests through a series of lower highs on the daily chart, a classic technical pattern signaling weakening bullish conviction. Market analysts point to several contributing factors for this dynamic. Firstly, interventions by Japanese monetary authorities have historically clustered around the 152-155 zone, creating an invisible ceiling for the pair. Secondly, shifting expectations regarding the Federal Reserve’s interest rate path have introduced volatility into dollar-denominated pairs. Meanwhile, the Bank of Japan’s gradual moves away from its ultra-accommodative stance provide underlying, long-term support for the yen. These fundamental drivers interact directly with the technical picture unfolding on the charts. Understanding the 200-Day EMA’s Significance The 200-day Exponential Moving Average is not merely another line on a chart; it serves as a critical barometer of long-term market sentiment. Institutional asset managers frequently use this indicator to define bull and bear markets. A sustained price position above the 200-day EMA typically suggests a healthy long-term uptrend. Conversely, a break below it, especially on a closing basis, can trigger automated selling from trend-following systems and signal a potential trend reversal to fundamental traders. For the USD/JPY, the proximity to this moving average therefore elevates current price action from routine fluctuation to a potentially trend-defining moment. Historical data reveals that previous tests of this average during the pair’s multi-year uptrend have resulted in significant bounces, making the current approach a high-stakes technical event. The market’s reaction here will offer crucial evidence about the durability of the broader dollar-yen trend that has prevailed for much of the past two years. Fundamental Context Driving Yen Fluctuations Beyond the charts, real-world economic forces exert constant pressure on the currency pair. The interest rate differential between the United States and Japan remains the dominant fundamental driver, though its influence is evolving. While the Fed has signaled a potential pause in its hiking cycle, the Bank of Japan has cautiously begun dismantling its yield curve control policy. This policy convergence, however gradual, narrows the yield advantage that has fueled the dollar’s strength against the yen for an extended period. Furthermore, Japan’s Ministry of Finance and the Bank of Japan have repeatedly expressed concern over excessive yen weakness, which increases import costs and inflation for the resource-poor nation. Verbal interventions often precede actual market interventions, creating an asymmetric risk environment for traders attempting to push the USD/JPY substantially higher. This creates a “ceiling effect” around levels like 153.00, where speculative longs become wary of official action. Global risk sentiment also plays a key role. The Japanese yen traditionally acts as a safe-haven currency. Therefore, during periods of market stress or geopolitical tension, flows tend to move into the yen, pressuring USD/JPY lower. The current bearish control below 153.00 may partially reflect a cautious, risk-off undertone in broader financial markets, alongside the specific technical and policy factors. Comparative Analysis: Key USD/JPY Resistance and Support Levels The following table outlines the major technical levels traders are monitoring, based on recent price action and historical pivots. Level Type Significance 153.00 – 153.50 Resistance Zone Recent highs and intervention watch zone; key bull/bear battleground. 200-day EMA (~151.20) Dynamic Support Primary long-term trend indicator; break could signal deeper correction. 150.00 Psychological Major Support Round number and previous consolidation area; likely to attract strong buying interest if tested. 148.00 – 148.50 Historical Support Region of multiple daily closes from Q4 2023; a break below would invalidate the near-term bullish structure. Market Impact and Trader Positioning The current technical setup has tangible implications for different market participants. For trend followers, a decisive break below the 200-day EMA would likely trigger stop-loss orders and new short positions, potentially accelerating downward momentum. For longer-term value investors and corporate treasurers, such a dip may present a hedging or accumulation opportunity, based on the view that the fundamental interest rate divergence, while narrowing, persists. Commitments of Traders (COT) report data, which tracks speculative positioning, will be scrutinized for clues. A reduction in net long yen positions by leveraged funds could indicate that the bearish pressure is running out of fuel. Conversely, an increase in net shorts would confirm the strength of the current downward move. This data provides a reality check against the pure price action shown on the chart. Volatility expectations, as measured by options markets, also tend to rise as the pair approaches these technically significant levels. This reflects the market’s anticipation of larger price swings and the binary outcome of the upcoming test. Traders adjust their strategies accordingly, often employing options for defined risk or reducing outright exposure until the technical conflict resolves. Expert Insight on Policy and Price Interplay Financial strategists emphasize the feedback loop between price levels and policy. A weaker yen alleviates deflationary pressures in Japan but hurts consumers via import prices. The Bank of Japan must balance these effects. If USD/JPY decline accelerates through the 200-day EMA, it reduces the urgency for further aggressive policy normalization from the BOJ. Conversely, a strong rebound from the EMA back toward 153.00 would keep inflation imported via a weak yen on the policy agenda. This creates a complex environment where technical analysis and fundamental policy analysis are deeply intertwined. The price action around the 200-day EMA will therefore be interpreted not just by chartists, but also by central bank watchers and macroeconomic analysts as a signal of market-imposed discipline on currency valuations. Conclusion The USD/JPY forecast hinges on the impending interaction between price and the 200-day Exponential Moving Average. While bears currently demonstrate control by capping rallies below the 153.00 resistance, the true test of their conviction will be a sustained break below the long-term average. This technical event unfolds within a nuanced fundamental landscape defined by converging central bank policies and geopolitical sensitivities. Traders should monitor this confluence of factors closely, as the resolution of this technical tension will likely set the directional tone for the USD/JPY pair in the weeks ahead. The critical 200-day EMA level now serves as the focal point for determining whether the current pullback is a healthy correction within a ongoing uptrend or the precursor to a more significant trend reversal. FAQs Q1: What does the 200-day EMA represent for USD/JPY? The 200-day Exponential Moving Average is a widely followed long-term trend indicator. For USD/JPY, a sustained position above it generally confirms a bullish trend, while a break below can signal a potential bearish reversal or deep correction. Q2: Why is the 153.00 level so significant for USD/JPY? The 153.00 level has acted as a major resistance zone, often coinciding with verbal or actual intervention warnings from Japanese authorities concerned about excessive yen weakness. It has repeatedly capped bullish advances in recent months. Q3: What fundamental factors are supporting the yen against the dollar currently? Key factors include the market’s perception of a nearing peak in US interest rates, the Bank of Japan’s slow but steady move away from ultra-loose policy, and the yen’s traditional role as a safe-haven asset during periods of global uncertainty. Q4: How do traders typically react to a test of the 200-day EMA? A test often increases volatility. Trend-following algorithms may sell on a break below, while value-oriented and contrarian traders might look for buying opportunities at what they perceive as a long-term support level, leading to a clash of strategies. Q5: What would a confirmed break below the 200-day EMA signal for the USD/JPY trend? A confirmed daily and weekly close below the 200-day EMA would be a strong technical signal that the multi-year uptrend is under severe threat, potentially opening the path for a deeper correction toward the next major support levels near 150.00 and 148.00. This post USD/JPY Forecast: Critical 200-Day EMA Looms as Bears Maintain Relentless Pressure Below 153.00 first appeared on BitcoinWorld .

12 Feb 2026, 03:12

Malaysia tests Shariah-compliant tokenization as stablecoin pilots expand

Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM), the nation’s central bank, has launched an expanded digital asset regulatory sandbox under its Digital Asset Innovation Hub (DAIH) to pilot stablecoins and tokenized financial products. The program would enable the bank to explore how the digital equivalent of the Malaysian ringgit and other tokenized financial products could operate in the real world. Bank Negara Malaysia said the sandbox would focus on ringgit-backed stablecoins, digital tokens that maintain a fixed value tied to the Malaysian currency, as well as tokenized bank deposits. These experiments will inform the bank on how these types of digital assets could enable faster cross-border payments and, perhaps, inform the creation of a central bank digital currency (CBDC). “The testing will allow BNM to assess the implications for monetary and financial stability and inform our policy direction in these specified areas. Notably, BNM intends to provide greater clarity on the use of ringgit stablecoins and tokenised deposits by the end of 2026,” part of the statement read. A CBDC is a form of money created and held in circulation by a central bank through digital means. Several of the world’s biggest banks have joined the trials. Standard Chartered Bank, CIMB Group Holding, Maybank, and investment company Capital A are also among the banks’ plans to assess Shariah-related considerations, which are rules from Islamic law that guide financial practices and must be maintained in compliance with Islamic finance products. According to BNM, lessons learned from the sandbox programs will help shape the country’s policy around digital assets and tokenization. Globally, governments are racing to explore digital currencies and tokenized assets to keep pace with the growing digital economy. Malaysia tests Shariah-compliant tokenization as stablecoin pilots expand In November 2025, Bank Negara Malaysia published a three-year roadmap for testing tokenization across several sectors. As previously reported by Cryptopolitan, it is establishing a Digital Asset Innovation Hub and an industry working group to solicit feedback on use cases, including supply chain finance and Islamic financing solutions. The central bank stated in their report that it plans to conduct proofs of concepts and pilot studies in 2026 and then expand the scope the following year. The roadmap highlights potential uses in supply chain management, Shariah-compliant finance, access to credit, programmable finance, and round-the-clock cross-border settlements. Malaysia’s central bank will also assess “Shariah-related considerations,” which refers to the Islamic code of law governing social, financial, and political customs. Tokenization allows real-world assets, such as property, bonds, or commodities, to be represented digitally on a blockchain. A significant event took place in December, when Ismail Ibrahim, the eldest son of Malaysia’s current king, introduced a ringgit-pegged stablecoin called RMJDT . The token, issued by Ibrahim’s telecom company, Bullish Aim, is also being tested in a sandbox and has not been used in public trades. The same month, Standard Chartered Bank and Capital A unveiled plans of their own to study ringgit-backed stablecoins for wholesale settlement. These stablecoins are built for large-scale transactions among financial institutions, central banks, and governments, not for everyday retail use. BNM tests tokenized finance in controlled sandbox BNM’s sandbox provides a protected environment to test new digital financial products and does not introduce new risks to the general public. They aim to educate regulators on the technical, operational, and legal nuances of tokenized assets with help from banks and private companies. The approach also highlights how tokenized bank deposits could function, such as through automated cross-border settlements and interfacing with programmable financial contracts. As tokenized assets and digital currencies continue to grow in importance, BNM’s sandbox positions Malaysia to explore the potential benefits of these technologies and adapt its regulations to a rapidly changing financial landscape. Claim your free seat in an exclusive crypto trading community - limited to 1,000 members.

12 Feb 2026, 03:05

US Dollar Index Defies Gravity: Holds Losses Below 97.00 Despite Stunning NFP Report

BitcoinWorld US Dollar Index Defies Gravity: Holds Losses Below 97.00 Despite Stunning NFP Report NEW YORK, March 2025 – In a move that defied conventional market logic, the US Dollar Index (DXY) stubbornly held its losses below the critical 97.00 level last Friday. This persistence came even after the Bureau of Labor Statistics released a significantly stronger-than-expected Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report. Typically, robust employment data bolsters the dollar by fueling expectations of tighter Federal Reserve policy. Consequently, this divergence has sent analysts scrambling to decode the underlying signals within global currency markets. The event underscores a complex interplay of macroeconomic forces currently shaping forex trends. US Dollar Index Holds Steady Against Economic Headwinds The US Dollar Index, which measures the dollar’s strength against a basket of six major currencies, closed the trading session virtually unchanged. It remained entrenched in negative territory for the week. Market participants had widely anticipated a sharp dollar rally following the NFP data. However, the price action told a different story. This resilience suggests other powerful factors are currently outweighing traditional fundamental drivers. For instance, shifting global capital flows and evolving central bank policies elsewhere are creating countervailing pressures. Furthermore, technical analysis indicates strong support levels just below 97.00 that have held firm on multiple tests. Several key data points from the March 7th report failed to ignite bullish dollar sentiment. The economy added a substantial 275,000 jobs, soundly beating consensus estimates. Additionally, the unemployment rate ticked down to 3.7%. Wage growth, however, showed a moderated increase of 0.2% month-over-month. This mixed signal on inflation may have tempered aggressive Fed hike expectations. Historical data reveals that the DXY does not always move in lockstep with a single data release. Instead, it synthesizes a broader range of global financial conditions. Decoding the Stronger-Than-Expected NFP Report The March Nonfarm Payrolls report presented a paradox of strength and nuance. The headline job creation figure was undoubtedly robust, pointing to enduring labor market tightness. Sectors like healthcare, government, and leisure & hospitality led the gains. This strength traditionally supports the argument for the Federal Reserve to maintain a restrictive monetary stance. However, deeper analysis of the report’s components provides critical context for the dollar’s muted reaction. Wage Growth Moderation: Average hourly earnings rose by a cooler-than-expected 4.1% year-over-year. This slowdown suggests inflationary pressures from the labor market may be peaking. Participation Rate Stability: The labor force participation rate held steady, indicating supply is gradually meeting demand. Revisions: Notable downward revisions to previous months’ job totals slightly offset the strong headline print. Market interpretation focused on this ‘goldilocks’ scenario: strong hiring without runaway wage inflation. Consequently, traders priced out some probability of additional Federal Reserve rate hikes. This recalibration directly undermined a primary pillar of dollar strength. Simultaneously, bond yields exhibited a muted response, failing to provide the typical lift for the currency. Expert Analysis on Divergent Market Signals Financial strategists point to external dynamics as the primary culprits for the dollar’s weakness. “The market is looking beyond U.S. shores,” noted a chief currency strategist at a major investment bank. “While the NFP was solid, concurrent signals from the European Central Bank and Bank of Japan about potential policy shifts are creating powerful crosscurrents. Capital is seeking opportunities where relative yield differentials are expected to narrow.” This global perspective is crucial for understanding the DXY’s performance. Furthermore, technical analysts highlight that the DXY has been in a defined downtrend channel since late 2024. Resistance near the 98.50 level has proven formidable. The failure to rally on positive news often signals underlying bearish sentiment and can precede further declines. Chart patterns suggest the index is testing a major support zone between 96.50 and 97.00. A decisive break below this level could open the path toward 95.00. The Global Context and Impact on Currency Markets The dollar’s isolated performance cannot be viewed in a vacuum. Major currency pairs like EUR/USD and USD/JPY exhibited significant volatility. The Euro gained ground as ECB officials hinted at a slower pace of balance sheet reduction. Meanwhile, the Japanese Yen found bids on suspected intervention rhetoric from Japanese authorities. These moves naturally weigh on the dollar-index basket. A comparative table illustrates the immediate reaction across major pairs: Currency Pair Pre-NFP Level Post-NFP Level (1 Hour) Change (%) EUR/USD 1.0920 1.0955 +0.32% USD/JPY 147.80 147.30 -0.34% GBP/USD 1.2780 1.2810 +0.23% USD/CHF 0.8830 0.8810 -0.23% This table clearly shows broad-based dollar weakness following the data release. The reaction underscores a market narrative shifting away from pure U.S. exceptionalism. Investors are increasingly factoring in a convergence of global monetary policies. As other central banks potentially halt their easing cycles, the dollar’s yield advantage diminishes. This dynamic represents a fundamental shift from the trends that dominated early-2020s forex trading. Conclusion The US Dollar Index’s failure to rally after a strong NFP report provides a compelling case study in modern market dynamics. It demonstrates that singular data points, no matter how positive, are now filtered through a complex global lens. Factors like relative central bank policy, technical positioning, and cross-currency flows are exerting unprecedented influence. For traders and economists, the event signals that the era of straightforward dollar dominance driven solely by U.S. data may be evolving. Moving forward, monitoring the DXY’s hold below 97.00 will be critical. It will indicate whether this represents a temporary anomaly or the beginning of a sustained recalibration of the US Dollar Index’s valuation paradigm. FAQs Q1: What is the US Dollar Index (DXY)? The US Dollar Index is a geometric weighted average that measures the value of the United States dollar relative to a basket of six major world currencies: the Euro, Japanese Yen, British Pound, Canadian Dollar, Swedish Krona, and Swiss Franc. Q2: Why does a strong NFP report usually strengthen the dollar? A strong Nonfarm Payrolls report suggests a healthy, tightening labor market. This can lead to higher wage inflation, prompting the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates or maintain a hawkish stance. Higher interest rates typically attract foreign capital into dollar-denominated assets, increasing demand for the currency. Q3: What other factors could have caused the dollar to stay weak despite good data? Potential factors include stronger simultaneous economic data from other regions (e.g., the Eurozone), shifting expectations for other central banks’ policies, pre-existing heavy long-dollar positioning (a “sell the news” event), or broader risk-on sentiment in markets reducing safe-haven demand for the USD. Q4: What is the significance of the 97.00 level for the DXY? In technical analysis, round numbers like 97.00 often act as psychological support or resistance levels. A sustained break below can trigger automated selling and shift market sentiment from neutral to bearish, potentially targeting the next major support zone. Q5: How does wage growth within the NFP report affect the Fed’s decision-making? The Federal Reserve closely monitors wage growth as a leading indicator of inflationary pressure. Moderating wage growth, even amid strong job creation, can signal that inflation is cooling. This may allow the Fed to pause or slow its rate-hiking cycle, which is generally negative for the dollar’s yield appeal. This post US Dollar Index Defies Gravity: Holds Losses Below 97.00 Despite Stunning NFP Report first appeared on BitcoinWorld .