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10 Feb 2026, 18:35

GBP/USD Plummets Below 1.3700: Weak US Data Collides with UK Political Turmoil

BitcoinWorld GBP/USD Plummets Below 1.3700: Weak US Data Collides with UK Political Turmoil LONDON, March 2025 – The GBP/USD currency pair experienced a significant decline today, dropping below the critical 1.3700 psychological level for the first time in three weeks. This movement represents a notable shift in forex market sentiment, driven by a confluence of weak US economic indicators and mounting political uncertainty in the United Kingdom. Consequently, traders are reassessing their positions amid changing fundamental landscapes. GBP/USD Technical Breakdown and Market Reaction The GBP/USD pair’s descent below 1.3700 marks a crucial technical development. Market analysts immediately noted increased selling pressure during the London trading session. Furthermore, trading volumes spiked by approximately 35% compared to the previous week’s average. The currency pair now tests support levels not seen since early February, creating potential opportunities for both short-term traders and long-term investors. Several technical indicators confirm the bearish momentum. The 50-day moving average crossed below the 200-day moving average yesterday, forming what traders call a “death cross.” Additionally, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) currently sits at 32, approaching oversold territory. However, market participants remain cautious about potential reversals. Key technical levels to watch include: Immediate resistance: 1.3720-1.3740 range Primary support: 1.3650 level from January lows Secondary support: 1.3600 psychological barrier GBP/USD Recent Performance Metrics Time Period High Low % Change Last 24 Hours 1.3754 1.3682 -0.52% Last 7 Days 1.3812 1.3682 -0.94% Last 30 Days 1.3850 1.3682 -1.21% US Economic Data Reveals Underlying Weakness Weak economic data from the United States significantly contributed to today’s forex movements. The Department of Commerce released retail sales figures showing a 0.3% decline for February, missing expectations of a 0.2% increase. Moreover, industrial production contracted by 0.5% last month, marking the third consecutive monthly decline. These indicators suggest potential headwinds for the US economy. Manufacturing data from the Federal Reserve districts showed particular weakness in the Philadelphia and New York regions. Simultaneously, consumer confidence surveys indicated growing concerns about inflation and employment stability. Therefore, investors are questioning the strength of the US economic recovery narrative that has dominated markets for months. The US Dollar Index (DXY) initially weakened on the data before recovering slightly. However, the mixed signals created uncertainty about Federal Reserve policy direction. Market-implied probabilities for interest rate changes shifted noticeably following the data releases. Consequently, currency traders adjusted their positions across multiple pairs, not just GBP/USD. Expert Analysis: Federal Reserve Policy Implications Dr. Eleanor Vance, Chief Economist at Global Financial Insights, provides context about the Federal Reserve’s position. “Today’s data presents a complex picture for policymakers,” she explains. “While inflation remains above target, weakening consumption and production metrics suggest the economy may need continued support.” Dr. Vance references similar historical patterns from 2019 when mixed signals led to policy adjustments. Historical data shows that the Federal Reserve typically responds to consecutive months of weak economic indicators with cautious language. The central bank’s dual mandate of price stability and maximum employment creates tension during such periods. Market participants will closely monitor upcoming Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting minutes for guidance. UK Political Landscape Creates Additional Pressure Political uncertainty in the United Kingdom amplified the GBP/USD decline. Recent parliamentary debates about fiscal policy revealed significant divisions within the governing coalition. Specifically, disagreements about taxation levels and public spending priorities created market concerns about policy stability. These developments occurred against a backdrop of ongoing trade negotiations with the European Union. The opposition party proposed a motion of no confidence yesterday, though it failed to gain sufficient support. Nevertheless, the political maneuvering highlighted underlying tensions that could affect economic policymaking. Additionally, upcoming local elections in May introduce further uncertainty about the government’s future direction. Bank of England Governor Michael Carney addressed these concerns during a press conference today. “The Bank monitors all factors affecting economic stability,” he stated. “Political developments represent one input among many in our decision-making framework.” The Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee meets next week to discuss interest rate policy. Key political factors affecting sterling include: Upcoming fiscal policy announcements scheduled for April Ongoing post-Brexit trade agreement implementation Potential changes to financial services regulation International relations developments affecting trade flows Comparative Analysis: Historical Currency Movements Today’s GBP/USD movement shares characteristics with several historical episodes. The 2016 Brexit referendum created similar volatility patterns, though with greater magnitude. Similarly, the 2020 pandemic-induced market turmoil showed how political and economic factors can combine to drive currency movements. However, current conditions differ in important ways from these previous events. During the 2019 political crisis, GBP/USD declined approximately 8% over three months. The current movement represents a more modest adjustment thus far. Market liquidity conditions also differ significantly, with current volumes higher than historical averages. These comparisons help traders assess whether current movements represent temporary fluctuations or more sustained trends. Currency correlation analysis reveals interesting patterns. The GBP/JPY pair showed similar weakness today, suggesting broad sterling pressure rather than dollar-specific strength. Meanwhile, the EUR/GBP pair remained relatively stable, indicating that today’s movements reflect specific GBP/USD dynamics rather than general sterling weakness against all major currencies. Market Psychology and Trader Sentiment Shifts Market psychology plays a crucial role in currency movements. The break below 1.3700 triggered stop-loss orders from traders who had entered long positions above that level. This technical selling then amplified the fundamental-driven movement. Sentiment indicators from major trading platforms showed a rapid shift from neutral to bearish positioning throughout the trading session. Commitments of Traders (COT) reports from last week revealed that speculative positions had become increasingly bullish on sterling. Therefore, today’s movement likely forced many traders to unwind these positions. Market depth analysis shows that liquidity providers adjusted their quotes more frequently than usual, reflecting heightened uncertainty. Global Economic Context and Intermarket Relationships The GBP/USD movement occurs within a broader global economic context. Equity markets showed mixed reactions today, with European indices declining while Asian markets posted modest gains. Bond markets exhibited similar divergence, with UK gilt yields falling slightly while US Treasury yields remained stable. These intermarket relationships provide additional context for currency movements. Commodity prices showed limited reaction to the currency movements. Gold prices remained stable despite dollar fluctuations, suggesting other factors dominate precious metal pricing currently. Oil prices declined slightly, though this appeared unrelated to currency developments. The relative stability in other asset classes suggests today’s forex movements reflect currency-specific factors rather than broad risk aversion. International trade flows provide another important context. UK export data released yesterday showed stronger-than-expected performance, particularly in services exports. However, import costs increased due to currency movements, creating potential inflationary pressures. These competing factors make the Bank of England’s policy decisions particularly challenging in the current environment. Future Outlook and Market Projections Market participants now focus on upcoming economic releases and policy announcements. The UK releases inflation data tomorrow, which could significantly impact sterling’s trajectory. Similarly, US jobless claims data on Thursday may provide further clarity about labor market conditions. These releases will help determine whether today’s movement represents a temporary fluctuation or the beginning of a new trend. Forward-looking indicators provide mixed signals. Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data for March showed continued expansion in both countries, though at slightly reduced levels. Business confidence surveys indicate cautious optimism among corporate leaders. However, geopolitical developments could quickly alter these outlooks, particularly regarding international trade relationships. Options market pricing reveals interesting expectations. Implied volatility for GBP/USD options increased significantly today, particularly for near-term contracts. The volatility skew shifted toward put options, indicating greater concern about further downside. These derivatives market signals provide additional insight beyond spot market movements alone. Conclusion The GBP/USD decline below 1.3700 represents a significant development in forex markets, driven by weak US economic data and UK political uncertainty. Technical factors amplified fundamental-driven movements, creating a challenging environment for traders and investors. Market participants must now monitor upcoming economic releases and policy developments closely. The currency pair’s future trajectory will depend on relative economic performance, policy decisions, and political developments in both countries. Consequently, today’s movement serves as a reminder of the complex factors influencing major currency pairs in global financial markets. FAQs Q1: What does GBP/USD falling below 1.3700 mean for travelers? Travelers exchanging currencies will receive fewer US dollars for each British pound, making US travel more expensive for UK residents and UK travel cheaper for US visitors. Q2: How does political uncertainty specifically affect currency values? Political uncertainty typically increases risk premiums for a currency, as investors demand higher returns for holding assets perceived as riskier, often leading to currency depreciation. Q3: What US economic indicators most directly impact GBP/USD? Employment data, inflation figures, retail sales reports, and Federal Reserve policy decisions typically have the most direct impact on the currency pair’s movements. Q4: How do central banks respond to such currency movements? Central banks monitor currency movements but typically intervene only during extreme volatility that threatens financial stability or significantly affects inflation targets. Q5: What technical levels should traders watch after this decline? Traders should monitor the 1.3650 support level from January lows and watch for potential resistance around 1.3720-1.3740 if the pair attempts to recover. This post GBP/USD Plummets Below 1.3700: Weak US Data Collides with UK Political Turmoil first appeared on BitcoinWorld .

10 Feb 2026, 18:30

Treasury Secretary Lutnick’s Stunning 6% Q1 Growth Forecast Signals Robust Economic Momentum

BitcoinWorld Treasury Secretary Lutnick’s Stunning 6% Q1 Growth Forecast Signals Robust Economic Momentum WASHINGTON, D.C. – March 15, 2025 – Treasury Secretary Howard Lutnick has delivered a significant and optimistic projection for the nation’s economic trajectory. Consequently, his office forecasts a robust 6% growth rate for the first quarter of 2025. This announcement, grounded in preliminary departmental data and economic indicators, immediately captured the attention of financial markets and policy analysts. Moreover, the figure represents a notable acceleration from recent quarters, prompting a deep analysis of the underlying drivers and potential implications for the broader fiscal landscape. Treasury Secretary Lutnick’s Q1 Growth Forecast: Analyzing the Data Secretary Lutnick presented the 6% growth projection during a briefing on the Treasury’s quarterly economic review. The forecast primarily relies on advanced estimates of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) components. Key contributing sectors include manufacturing output, consumer spending indices, and business investment data. For instance, recent reports from the Commerce Department showed a sustained increase in durable goods orders. Similarly, retail sales figures have demonstrated consistent strength, particularly in the technology and automotive sectors. Therefore, the Treasury’s model synthesizes these inputs to generate its forward-looking assessment. The methodology aligns with standard practices used by federal agencies and private institutions like the Congressional Budget Office. The Context of Current Economic Indicators Understanding this forecast requires examining the recent economic climate. The previous quarter concluded with a growth rate of 4.2%. Subsequently, several factors have evolved. Labor market data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics indicates a steady unemployment rate below 4%. Furthermore, inflation metrics have continued their gradual moderation toward the Federal Reserve’s target band. Supply chain analytics from logistics firms show normalized delivery times across major trade corridors. These conditions collectively create a foundation for accelerated economic expansion. Secretary Lutnick’s statement specifically referenced “resilient consumer demand” and “renewed business confidence” as primary catalysts. Comparative Analysis and Historical Benchmarks Placing a 6% quarterly growth figure into historical context provides crucial perspective. For example, the post-pandemic recovery period in 2021 saw several quarters with growth exceeding 6%. However, the current economic environment differs substantially. Today’s growth is not rebounding from a sharp contraction but rather building upon sustained, moderate expansion. The table below illustrates recent quarterly GDP growth rates for comparison: Quarter GDP Growth Rate (%) Primary Driver Noted Q4 2024 4.2 Service sector expansion Q3 2024 3.8 Export growth r> Q2 2024 3.5 Consumer spending Q1 2024 3.1 Government investment This sequential acceleration suggests a strengthening momentum. Additionally, international comparisons are relevant. Currently, growth projections for other major economies like the Eurozone and Japan remain in the 1-2% range for the same period. Consequently, a 6% U.S. figure would represent a significant outperformance on the global stage. Potential Impacts on Fiscal Policy and Markets Secretary Lutnick’s projection carries immediate implications for government policy and financial markets. Firstly, stronger-than-expected growth influences federal revenue estimates. Higher corporate profits and personal incomes typically translate to increased tax receipts. This dynamic can affect debates surrounding budget deficits and future spending initiatives. Secondly, the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy committee closely monitors such growth data. While robust growth is positive, sustained rates significantly above potential could influence the timeline for future interest rate adjustments. Market reactions following the announcement were measured but positive. Major equity indices showed modest gains, and Treasury yields experienced a slight uptick, reflecting expectations of a healthier economy. Expert Perspectives on the Forecast Economic analysts have begun dissecting the Treasury’s numbers. Dr. Anya Sharma, Chief Economist at the Brookings Institution, provided context. “A 6% quarterly annualized growth rate is certainly at the upper bound of current expectations,” she noted. “The critical question is composition. Growth driven by productivity and investment is more sustainable than growth fueled by transient fiscal stimulus.” Meanwhile, Michael Chen, a former Federal Reserve economist now with the Peterson Institute, highlighted the labor market connection. “Such rapid growth, if realized, will further tighten an already strong job market. We would likely see wage pressures persist, which the Fed will weigh against inflation progress.” These expert views underscore the complexity behind a single headline number. Key Drivers Behind the Projected Acceleration Several interconnected factors appear to be driving the anticipated growth surge. The Treasury’s analysis points to a few dominant contributors: Business Investment Resurgence: Data shows a sharp increase in capital expenditure, particularly in technology and green energy infrastructure. Consumer Resilience: Despite earlier concerns, household balance sheets remain healthy, supporting continued spending on goods and services. Housing Market Stabilization: After a period of adjustment, residential investment is contributing positively to GDP calculations again. Inventory Replenishment Cycles: Businesses across sectors are rebuilding stockpiles to meet demand, a process that directly boosts measured output. Each driver interacts with the others, creating a multiplicative effect on overall economic activity. For example, business investment often leads to productivity gains, which can support wage growth without inflation, thereby further enabling consumer spending. Risks and Considerations for the Outlook While the forecast is optimistic, Secretary Lutnick and independent analysts acknowledge existing risks. Geopolitical tensions in key regions could disrupt global trade flows and commodity prices. Additionally, the trajectory of domestic inflation remains a critical variable. If price growth proves stickier than anticipated, it could force a more aggressive monetary policy response, potentially dampening growth later in the year. Another consideration is the sustainability of consumer spending. Household savings rates have declined from pandemic peaks, and the durability of spending power is a subject of ongoing analysis. Finally, potential policy changes following the upcoming electoral cycle could introduce new variables into the economic equation. Conclusion Treasury Secretary Lutnick’s projection of 6% Q1 economic growth presents a compelling narrative of accelerating U.S. economic momentum. This forecast, derived from early data on investment, consumption, and production, suggests the economy is entering a phase of robust expansion. The implications for fiscal policy, monetary policy, and financial markets are significant. However, the realization of this growth depends on the continued alignment of multiple favorable factors and the navigation of persistent risks. Ultimately, this forecast by Treasury Secretary Lutnick will serve as a key benchmark against which actual economic performance in 2025 will be measured, highlighting the ongoing strength and complexity of the post-pandemic economic landscape. FAQs Q1: What is the basis for Treasury Secretary Lutnick’s 6% growth forecast? The forecast is based on the Treasury Department’s advanced analysis of preliminary Q1 2025 data, including indicators for consumer spending, business investment, manufacturing output, and inventory changes, synthesized using standard economic modeling techniques. Q2: How does a 6% quarterly growth rate compare to recent economic performance? This represents an acceleration from the 4.2% growth recorded in Q4 2024. It would be the highest quarterly growth rate since the immediate post-pandemic rebound period, but occurring under different, more stable economic conditions. Q3: What are the main factors driving this projected growth? Key drivers identified include a resurgence in business investment (especially in tech and green energy), resilient consumer spending, stabilization in the housing market, and cycles of business inventory replenishment. Q4: Could this growth forecast affect interest rates? Potentially, yes. The Federal Reserve monitors growth data closely. Sustained growth significantly above the economy’s long-term potential could influence the timing and pace of future monetary policy decisions, though the Fed also balances this against inflation and employment goals. Q5: What are the biggest risks to this optimistic growth projection? Primary risks include geopolitical events disrupting trade, a potential re-acceleration of inflation requiring tighter monetary policy, a decline in consumer spending power if savings dwindle, and the uncertainty of future fiscal policy changes. This post Treasury Secretary Lutnick’s Stunning 6% Q1 Growth Forecast Signals Robust Economic Momentum first appeared on BitcoinWorld .

10 Feb 2026, 18:25

Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD Surges Toward $5,000 Milestone on Tuesday

BitcoinWorld Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD Surges Toward $5,000 Milestone on Tuesday Global financial markets witnessed a historic moment on Tuesday, as the spot gold price, quoted as XAU/USD, tested the psychologically significant $5,000 per ounce level. This remarkable movement in the precious metals market reflects a complex interplay of macroeconomic forces, shifting investor sentiment, and long-term structural changes in the global economy. Consequently, analysts are scrutinizing the charts to understand whether this represents a temporary peak or the beginning of a new paradigm for gold valuation. This analysis provides a detailed, factual examination of the drivers behind this surge, the technical landscape, and the broader implications for investors and central banks worldwide. Gold Price Forecast: Analyzing the $5,000 Threshold The ascent of gold toward $5,000 marks a pivotal chapter in commodity market history. Historically, gold has served as a primary store of value during periods of uncertainty. The recent price action, therefore, demands a multi-faceted investigation. Firstly, we must consider the immediate catalysts from Tuesday’s trading session. Secondly, a review of the technical chart patterns provides crucial context for the forecast. The XAU/USD pair’s behavior near this round number will offer significant clues about future momentum. Market participants are closely monitoring trading volumes and order book depth around this level. Furthermore, comparative analysis with previous major resistance levels, such as $2,000 and $3,000, can yield valuable insights. Technical analysts highlight several key features on the daily and weekly charts. The moving average convergence divergence (MACD) indicator has shown sustained bullish momentum for several quarters. Simultaneously, the relative strength index (RSI) has entered territory that historically signals strong buying pressure, though it also warrants caution for potential short-term corrections. The chart below summarizes critical technical levels observed on Tuesday: Technical Indicator Status Implication Price vs. 200-Day MA Price > 40% above Strong long-term uptrend Weekly RSI 78 Overbought, but can persist in strong trends Key Support $4,850 Previous resistance, now potential floor Key Resistance $5,050 Next psychological and technical hurdle Macroeconomic Drivers Behind the Precious Metals Rally Several powerful macroeconomic currents are converging to propel gold prices. Primarily, evolving monetary policy expectations among major central banks play a central role. Market consensus, as reflected in futures pricing, suggests a prolonged environment of higher structural inflation than the pre-2020 decade. This environment diminishes the real yield of fixed-income assets, enhancing gold’s appeal as a non-yielding inflation hedge. Additionally, geopolitical tensions in multiple regions have accelerated central bank purchasing programs. Notably, institutions in emerging markets have publicly increased their gold reserves to diversify away from traditional reserve currencies. Another critical factor is the performance of the US Dollar Index (DXY). Although the relationship can be dynamic, a generally softer dollar environment in early 2025 has provided a tailwind for dollar-denominated commodities like gold. Moreover, demand from the physical market, including jewelry and technology sectors, has remained resilient despite higher prices, indicating fundamental strength beyond speculative flows. Key demand drivers include: Central Bank Demand: Record-level net purchases continued into Q1 2025. ETF Inflows: Major gold-backed ETFs reported significant capital inflows after a period of outflows. Inflation Hedging: Retail and institutional investors seeking protection against currency debasement. Industrial Use: Steady demand from the electronics and medical sectors. Expert Analysis and Long-Term Valuation Models Leading commodity strategists from major financial institutions have published updated long-term forecasts. Their models often incorporate variables like global money supply growth, real interest rates, and mining production costs. According to data from the World Gold Council, the all-in sustaining cost (AISC) for major miners has risen but remains well below current spot prices, creating historically high profit margins. This profitability could eventually lead to increased supply, though new mine development faces significant multi-year timelines and regulatory hurdles. Experts also reference gold’s ratio to other asset classes, such as the S&P 500 or global bonds, to assess relative value. Currently, these ratios suggest gold may still be undervalued compared to equities on a long-term historical basis. Historical Context and Market Psychology Understanding the move toward $5,000 requires a glance at history. Gold’s last major bull market peaked in 2011 after a decade-long run. The current phase, which gained momentum post-2019, shares some characteristics with that period, such as expansive fiscal policy and low real rates. However, the scale of global debt and the digitalization of finance present new variables. The $5,000 level acts as a powerful psychological magnet for both buyers and sellers. Breakouts above such round numbers often trigger algorithmic trading and can lead to accelerated moves as stop-loss orders are triggered and new momentum buyers enter the market. Market sentiment surveys show a notable shift, with bullish positioning among large speculators reaching multi-year highs, which some contrarians view as a cautionary signal. Potential Impacts on Related Markets and Assets The surge in gold has ripple effects across financial markets. Firstly, gold mining equities, as tracked by indices like the NYSE Arca Gold BUGS Index, have significantly outperformed the broader market. Secondly, other precious metals, particularly silver (XAG/USD), often exhibit correlated movements, though with higher volatility—a phenomenon known as the ‘gold-silver ratio.’ Furthermore, the cryptocurrency market, which some investors also treat as an alternative store of value, has shown a complex and evolving relationship with gold. In recent months, the correlation has been inconsistent, suggesting investors may be differentiating between the two asset classes more deliberately. Central bank portfolios are also impacted, as mark-to-market gains on gold reserves improve balance sheet metrics for several nations. Conclusion The gold price forecast remains a central topic for investors as XAU/USD challenges the $5,000 level. This movement is not an isolated event but the result of sustained macroeconomic pressures, including monetary policy, geopolitical risk, and strong institutional demand. While technical indicators suggest the market may be extended in the short term, the fundamental drivers appear robust. The breach of this milestone would likely reinforce gold’s status as a critical strategic asset in diversified portfolios. Ultimately, market participants should monitor central bank commentary, inflation data releases, and dollar strength for clues to the next sustained directional move. The journey of gold toward $5,000 underscores its enduring role in the global financial system. FAQs Q1: What does XAU/USD mean? A1: XAU is the ISO 4217 currency code for one troy ounce of gold. XAU/USD is the exchange rate showing how many US dollars (USD) are needed to purchase one ounce of gold. It is the standard pair for trading spot gold in forex markets. Q2: Why is the $5,000 level psychologically important for gold? A2: Round numbers like $5,000 serve as major psychological benchmarks for traders and investors. They often concentrate buy and sell orders, act as targets for profit-taking, and are heavily featured in media coverage, which can influence market sentiment and behavior around these levels. Q3: How does inflation affect the gold price forecast? A3: Gold is traditionally viewed as a hedge against inflation. When inflation expectations rise, the purchasing power of fiat currencies declines. Investors may allocate to gold to preserve real value, as its price often rises in nominal terms during inflationary periods, especially when real interest rates (nominal rates minus inflation) are low or negative. Q4: Are gold mining stocks a good way to gain exposure to this trend? A4: Gold mining stocks (equities) offer leveraged exposure to the gold price. When gold rises, mining profits can increase disproportionately if costs are stable, potentially leading to greater stock price gains than the metal itself. However, they also carry additional risks like operational issues, management decisions, and equity market volatility, making them a different proposition than physical gold or ETFs. Q5: What could cause a major reversal in the gold price trend? A5: A sustained reversal would likely require a shift in its core drivers. Key factors could include a prolonged period of aggressively high real interest rates set by central banks, a major strengthening of the US Dollar, a significant resolution of geopolitical tensions, or a sustained period of disinflation or deflation that reduces its appeal as a hedge. A sharp increase in mine supply could also pressure prices over the long term. This post Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD Surges Toward $5,000 Milestone on Tuesday first appeared on BitcoinWorld .

10 Feb 2026, 18:18

Grayscale: Bitcoin Is Not Digital Gold, Risky Asset

Grayscale report questions Bitcoin's digital gold narrative: In the short term, correlated with software stocks, risky growth asset. ETF inflows 144.9M$, Binance SAFU acquired 4K+ BTC. Technical: R...

10 Feb 2026, 17:31

Hyundai rejects carbon credit deals in Europe EV push

The yuan has jumped to 6.91 per dollar, its strongest level since May 2023. This marks seven straight months of gains, the longest winning streak since 2020–2021. Since the start of 2025, the yuan is up 5%, making it the third-best performing Asian currency since September. And it’s not by luck. China’s financial authorities are behind it, pushing banks to cut their U.S. Treasury buying and reduce exposure if they’ve loaded up too much. This sudden pullback in dollar demand is driving the rally. At the same time, the dollar is falling apart, making it easier for the yuan to shine. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index has dropped 1.7% this year, after plunging 8% in 2025. That was the worst yearly showing for the dollar since 2017. Traders expect this trend to continue, especially if the Federal Reserve slashes rates deeper than markets are pricing in. Fed rate cuts and Trump pressure weigh on the dollar According to State Street strategist Lee Ferridge, the dollar could lose another 10% this year if the Fed turns more aggressive. He says a third rate cut in 2026 is “possible,” not just because of economic data, but because of the pressure that President Donald Trump might put on whoever replaces Jerome Powell as Fed Chair. Ferridge told reporters at the TradeTech FX conference in Miami, “Two is a reasonable base case, but we have to accept we are going into a more uncertain period of Fed policy.” He also said if Trump pushes for cheaper borrowing, that could accelerate dollar weakness even further. The first cut is expected around June, with most traders betting on two quarter-point reductions by the end of 2026. But if the new Fed Chair bows to White House pressure, a third could be on the table. On top of that, Ferridge added that deeper cuts lower hedging costs for foreigners investing in the U.S., which would hurt the dollar more as they hedge aggressively. Ferridge did say the dollar might briefly bounce back 2%-3% if U.S. data surprises on the upside. But so far, momentum is still sliding. And as the dollar dips, the yuan keeps gaining ground. Beijing cracks down on crypto to protect the yuan China isn’t just pushing banks behind closed doors. Regulators just banned unapproved yuan-pegged stablecoins and tokenized risk-weighted assets, both from inside and outside the country. On February 6, the People’s Bank of China, along with several agencies, issued a statement warning that these crypto products could threaten the yuan’s stability if left unregulated. The ban includes a full stop on businesses using words like “stablecoin,” “RWA,” or “cryptocurrency” in their names or scope. This is about pushing the adoption of the e-CNY, China’s state-backed central bank digital currency that’s been in the works for years. The document called it a response to “new circumstances and new challenges.” There’s also an international layer to all this. The U.K. just became the first foreign country to host two yuan-clearing Chinese banks. On January 29, during British Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s visit to Beijing, China’s central bank approved the Bank of China’s London branch as a new clearing hub. This boosts offshore yuan trading in Europe, with London now a major link in China’s global currency network. Sharpen your strategy with mentorship + daily ideas - 30 days free access to our trading program

10 Feb 2026, 17:30

Bank of England partners with Chainlink to test atomic settlements

The Bank of England partnered with blockchain oracle Chainlink on Tuesday to test atomic settlements with tokenized assets. The BoE’s initiative, Project Meridian, aims to integrate traditional finance with decentralized systems. The Bank of England’s Synchronisation Lab allows operators to demonstrate how they would interact with the bank’s RT2 synchronization capability. The Lab also aims to demonstrate what services operators could offer to synchronization users, including RTGS account holders, asset ledger operators, and customers in asset markets. BoE’s Lab runs for 6 months from spring 2026 The @bankofengland ’s Synchronisation Lab is a platform for industry to demonstrate use cases & understand business models for synchronisation. Here’s how Chainlink is enabling the next generation of UK financial infra: https://t.co/PYS56yiGWE — Chainlink (@chainlink) February 10, 2026 The Lab will build on Meridian and provide synchronization operators with a venue to experiment with various use cases. Britain’s central bank introduced the Synchronisation Lab in October 2025 to demonstrate use cases and understand synchronization business models. The BoE announced that 18 organizations have already been selected to participate in the initiative. The entities will test a flurry of diverse synchronization use cases. The financial institution expects the Lab to run from spring 2026 for around six months. The period is meant to enable participating synchronization operators to test use cases and demonstrate how they would interact with RT2 and users. The BoE stated that its Synchronisation Lab aims to help the bank better evaluate its design options for the exchange of information between RT2 and operators. The bank’s Lab also seeks to demonstrate synchronization’s flexibility by allowing participants to showcase use cases and the benefits they could offer users. The UK’s central bank believes that synchronization may interest firms in the BoE’s Digital Securities Sandbox (DSS), which enables innovation in the issuance, trading, and settlement of securities in the country. The BoE revealed that the Lab provides a pathway for DSS firms to test the settlement of digital security transactions in sterling central bank money. The Lab will also not support real-money payments. The BoE set the application deadline on November 28, and successful applicants will receive more detailed specifications at a later date. The bank will give the applicants another two months to build or develop their prototypes, with the bank looking to iterate with them on their design and build before the Lab launches. Lab Participants are expected to use the bank’s capabilities to test their use cases. They will be invited to present their use cases and findings at an industry showcase once the Lab closes. The BoE said it will publish a report about the key learnings for the live functionality. The bank also plans to use the Lab’s findings to support ongoing design and other development work. The central bank’s Lab will enable its participants to simulate the basic interactions required for synchronization settlement. The bank also designed the Lab to function as a platform and expects Lab Participants to build the additional elements required to integrate with it. The Lab will simulate the RT2’s settlement engine, which is required to settle and manage a transaction. The Lab will mimic RT2’s user interface to provide participants with visibility into transactions they orchestrate. It will also emulate an Application Programming Interface (API) layer, allowing participants to oversee and control the entire lifecycle of settling a transaction. BoE’s Lab explores two different synchronization models The BoE’s Synchronization Lab will explore two models to help the bank, RTGS account holders, and operators evaluate different options. The first model will enable synchronization operators to send the earmarking instruction to RT2 and instruct the final settlement. The second proposed model will allow RTGS account holders to send the earmarking instruction directed by a synchronization operator. Operators are responsible for issuing the final settlement, while the Lab Participant will simulate the earmarking instruction. The BoE will also consider two more models based on the feedback from the initial experimentation. The bank expects the models to test additional controls that RTGS account holders could apply. The smartest crypto minds already read our newsletter. Want in? Join them .