hodler

29 Jan 2026, 05:22

First gold and silver, now oil's starting to rally and that's bad news for bitcoin

Higher oil prices could add to inflation, making it harder for the Fed to cut rates rapidly.

29 Jan 2026, 05:00

Tether’s Endgame? Ardoino Says It’ll Become A ‘Gold Central Bank’

Tether is rapidly expanding its physical gold footprint, with CEO Paolo Ardoino casting the stablecoin issuer less like a fintech and more like a central bank. “We are soon becoming basically one of the biggest, let’s say, gold central banks in the world,” Ardoino said in an interview with Bloomberg, as the company disclosed buying and storing bullion at a scale rarely seen outside banks and sovereigns. Tether’s Gold Strategy The remarks land as bullion keeps rewriting the macro playbook. Gold pushed to fresh records above $5,200 an ounce this week after President Donald Trump said he was not concerned about a weaker dollar, reinforcing the “debasement trade” that has pulled flows out of sovereign bonds and currencies and into hard assets. Tether’s gold push is physical, not just balance-sheet accounting. More than a ton of bullion is hauled into a high-security vault in Switzerland every week, according to the report, with the hoard described as the largest known stash outside banks and nation states. Ardoino framed the accumulation as an ongoing policy decision rather than a one-off allocation. “Maybe we are going to reduce, we don’t know yet. We are going to assess on a quarterly basis our demand for gold,” he said, suggesting Tether intends to manage the position dynamically as the macro backdrop evolves. The cash engine is USDT. With roughly $186 billion in circulation, Tether takes in dollars for its stablecoin issuance and invests reserves across assets including Treasuries and gold , generating interest and trading profits that can be recycled into further purchases. Ardoino’s comments also point to a shift in posture, from an accumulator of bullion to an active participant in the market’s plumbing. He said the company needs “the best trading floor for gold in the world” to keep buying at scale and to exploit inefficiencies, adding that whatever strategies it adopts would be structured so the firm “remains very long physical gold.” “Our goal is to have a steady, stable, long-term access to gold,” Ardoino said, describing logistics that look more like commodities trading than crypto treasury management. “Because one to two tons per week is a very sizable amount,” he added, as Tether looks to make the acquisition process more efficient, buying directly from Swiss refiners and also sourcing from major financial institutions, with large orders sometimes taking months to arrive. The buildout is already reflected in staffing . Tether has hired two senior gold traders from HSBC, and Ardoino said the firm is evaluating opportunities to trade around dislocations between futures and physical pricing. Ardoino’s broader argument is explicitly monetary. “Gold is ‘logically a safer asset than any national currency,’” he said in an earlier Bloomberg interview. “Every single central bank in the BRICS countries is buying gold.” This week, he tied that demand to the user base that made USDT a dominant offshore dollar proxy: “Exactly the people that love gold and have been using gold as to protect themselves from their own government that have been debasing their currency for a long time,” he said. “We believe that the world is going towards darkness. We believe that there is a lot of turmoil.” That thesis feeds directly into Tether Gold (XAUT), the company’s token redeemable for bullion. Tether has issued XAUT equivalent to about 16 tons of gold, or roughly $2.7 billion, and Ardoino said there is a “good chance” it ends the year with $5 billion to $10 billion in circulation. “The way I see it, is that there are foreign countries that are buying a lot of gold, and we believe that these countries will soon launch tokenized version of gold as a competitive currency to the US dollar,” he said. For now, Tether’s own messaging is that it’s already operating on sovereign-like scale. “We are operating at a scale that now places the Tether Gold Investment Fund alongside sovereign gold holders, and that carries real responsibility,” Ardoino said. At press time, XAUT traded at $5,283.

29 Jan 2026, 05:00

Bitcoin Supply In Loss Begins To Rise, Raising Early Bear Market Concerns

Crypto research firm CryptoQuant has flagged a potentially troubling development for Bitcoin (BTC) and the wider digital asset market, pointing to an early warning signal that has historically appeared ahead of prolonged downturns. In a report released Wednesday, the firm noted that Bitcoin’s supply in loss metric has begun to rise again, a shift that has often marked the early stages of past bear markets. Possible Shift Toward Bear Market Structure According to analysis by CryptoQuant contributor Woominkyu, increases in supply held at a loss tend to signal that market weakness is spreading beyond short‑term traders and gradually affecting longer‑term holders. In previous market cycles, including 2014, 2018, and 2022, this indicator started trending upward well before prices reached their eventual lows. Related Reading: Bitcoin Price Braces For FOMC Volatility As History Shows Major Post‑Fed Sell‑Offs During those periods, Bitcoin prices continued to decline even after the metric turned higher, with true market bottoms forming only once supply in loss expanded much further and broader capitulation set in. At present, CryptoQuant notes that Bitcoin’s supply in loss remains well below levels typically associated with full market capitulation. However, the change in direction itself is significant. The analysts say it suggests the market may be shifting into a bearish structural phase, rather than experiencing a brief correction within an ongoing bull market. Bitcoin’s recent price action appears to reflect that uncertainty. The asset is currently trading around $89,700 and has struggled to reclaim the key $90,000 level as support. This follows a steady decline from earlier yearly-highs near $98,000, where upward momentum faded as buying pressure weakened and gains recorded at the start of the year were fully erased. US Dollar Tests Historic Zone For Bitcoin Rallies Despite these cautionary signals, not all analysts believe the outlook is entirely negative. Analysts at Bull Theory have highlighted a potentially bullish catalyst that could emerge in the months ahead, centered on movements in the US dollar. In a recent post on social media platform X (previously Twitter) the firm pointed out that the US Dollar Index is testing the same zone that preceded major Bitcoin bull runs in both 2017 and 2021. According to their analysis, the Dollar Index has broken below a long‑term trendline that has held for roughly 16 years and is now hovering around the critical level of 96. Historically, periods when the DXY fell below 96 and remained there coincided with strong Bitcoin rallies. Related Reading: Crypto Funds Funneled To Money Launderers Hit $82 Billion, According To Chainalysis As seen in the chart below, in mid‑2017, the index dropped under that level, after which Bitcoin surged nearly eightfold over the following five to six months. A similar pattern played out during the 2020 pandemic era. When a wave of liquidity entered financial markets at the time, the DXY again slipped below 96, and Bitcoin went on to rise roughly seven times over the next seven to eight months. During that same period, Ethereum (ETH) and many altcoins posted gains of tenfold or more. For now, the market sits at a crossroads. On‑chain data points to early bear‑market dynamics, while macro signals linked to the US dollar offer a counter‑narrative that could favor renewed strength. Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com

29 Jan 2026, 04:30

Asian Currencies Remain Cautious as Dollar Weakens After Fed’s Crucial Rate Decision; Yen Intervention Looms

BitcoinWorld Asian Currencies Remain Cautious as Dollar Weakens After Fed’s Crucial Rate Decision; Yen Intervention Looms Asian financial markets displayed cautious trading patterns on Thursday as regional currencies showed muted reactions to the U.S. dollar’s decline following the Federal Reserve’s decision to maintain interest rates. The Japanese yen remained under particular scrutiny amid growing speculation about potential intervention by Japanese authorities to support the struggling currency. Market participants across Tokyo, Singapore, and Hong Kong monitored developments closely, with trading volumes reflecting the uncertainty surrounding global monetary policy divergence. Federal Reserve Decision Triggers Dollar Decline The Federal Open Market Committee concluded its two-day meeting on Wednesday with a unanimous decision to keep the benchmark federal funds rate unchanged at 5.25%-5.50%. Consequently, the U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback against six major currencies, declined 0.4% to 104.20 in Asian trading hours. This marked the dollar’s weakest level in three weeks. Fed Chair Jerome Powell emphasized during the press conference that recent inflation data had not provided sufficient confidence to begin rate cuts. However, he acknowledged that further rate hikes remained unlikely unless inflation accelerated unexpectedly. Market analysts immediately noted several key factors from the Fed statement. First, the central bank maintained its projection for three rate cuts in 2025. Second, policymakers upgraded their economic growth forecast while keeping inflation projections largely unchanged. Third, the Fed announced a slower pace of balance sheet reduction beginning in June. These developments collectively contributed to dollar weakness as traders adjusted their expectations for U.S. monetary policy trajectory. Asian Currency Reactions Vary Across Regions Asian currencies demonstrated varied responses to the dollar’s decline. The Japanese yen traded at 155.85 against the dollar, remaining near its 34-year low. Meanwhile, the Chinese offshore yuan strengthened slightly to 7.2450 per dollar. South Korea’s won gained 0.3% to 1,375 per dollar. Additionally, the Singapore dollar appreciated 0.2% against the greenback. However, the Indonesian rupiah and Philippine peso showed minimal movement. Regional central banks maintained their usual market operations without extraordinary measures. Asian Currency Performance Against USD (Thursday Morning) Currency Rate vs USD Daily Change Key Level Japanese Yen 155.85 -0.1% 155.00-156.00 Chinese Yuan 7.2450 +0.15% 7.2400-7.2500 South Korean Won 1,375 +0.3% 1,370-1,380 Singapore Dollar 1.3520 +0.2% 1.3500-1.3550 Indonesian Rupiah 16,225 +0.05% 16,200-16,250 Yen Intervention Speculation Intensifies Japanese authorities faced mounting pressure to intervene in currency markets as the yen hovered near critical levels. Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki stated that the government would respond appropriately to excessive currency movements. Furthermore, Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda emphasized that monetary policy would not directly target exchange rates. Market participants closely monitored the 155.00 level, which many analysts identified as a potential intervention trigger point. Japan last intervened in October 2022 when the yen approached 152 per dollar. Several factors complicated Japan’s intervention decision. First, U.S. Treasury officials traditionally oppose currency intervention unless volatility becomes extreme. Second, Japan’s foreign exchange reserves stood at $1.29 trillion as of March 2024. Third, the interest rate differential between Japan and the United States remained substantial at 5.25 percentage points. Fourth, speculative positioning in yen futures showed net short positions at their highest level since 2007. These conditions created a challenging environment for Japanese policymakers. Regional Central Banks Maintain Cautious Stance Other Asian central banks adopted wait-and-see approaches following the Fed decision. The People’s Bank of China maintained its daily yuan fixing at 7.0996 per dollar, slightly stronger than market expectations. Bank Indonesia kept its benchmark rate unchanged at 6.00% for the eighth consecutive meeting. Similarly, the Bank of Korea maintained its policy rate at 3.50% while monitoring won volatility. These decisions reflected regional concerns about currency stability amid divergent global monetary policies. Market analysts identified several key considerations for Asian policymakers. First, stronger regional currencies could hurt export competitiveness. Second, imported inflation pressures might ease with local currency appreciation. Third, foreign capital flows remained sensitive to interest rate differentials. Fourth, regional foreign exchange reserves provided substantial buffers against volatility. Fifth, coordinated intervention remained unlikely without extreme market conditions. Global Economic Context and Historical Parallels The current currency dynamics occur against a complex global economic backdrop. The International Monetary Fund projected global growth at 3.1% for 2025 in its April World Economic Outlook. Meanwhile, inflation in advanced economies averaged 2.3% in March 2025. These figures represented significant improvements from the 2023-2024 period. However, geopolitical tensions and supply chain reconfiguration continued creating uncertainty. Additionally, commodity price volatility added another layer of complexity to currency markets. Historical analysis reveals several relevant precedents. The 2013 taper tantrum triggered substantial emerging market currency volatility. Similarly, the 1997 Asian financial crisis demonstrated how currency pressures could spread regionally. More recently, the 2022 synchronized global tightening cycle created unprecedented challenges for policymakers. These historical episodes inform current market analysis and policy responses. Consequently, central banks now maintain larger foreign exchange reserves and employ more sophisticated monitoring tools. Interest Rate Differentials: The gap between U.S. and Japanese rates remains at multi-decade highs Inflation Dynamics: U.S. core inflation at 2.8% versus Japan’s 2.2% Growth Outlook: U.S. economy expanding at 2.5% versus Japan’s 0.8% Policy Divergence: Fed maintaining restrictive policy while BOJ remains accommodative Market Positioning: Speculative yen shorts at extreme levels Expert Analysis and Market Implications Currency strategists from major financial institutions offered nuanced perspectives. Goldman Sachs analysts noted that yen intervention might provide temporary relief but would not alter fundamental drivers. Meanwhile, Morgan Stanley strategists emphasized that Asian central banks had sufficient reserves to manage volatility. Additionally, UBS economists highlighted that currency movements reflected real interest rate differentials more than policy statements. These analyses suggested that sustained currency trends would require fundamental economic convergence. The market implications extended beyond spot currency trading. First, currency volatility affected multinational corporate earnings and hedging strategies. Second, emerging market debt servicing costs fluctuated with dollar strength. Third, commodity prices in local terms impacted inflation trajectories. Fourth, tourism flows responded to exchange rate movements. Fifth, foreign direct investment decisions considered currency stability. These interconnected factors demonstrated why currency markets attracted such intense scrutiny. Technical Analysis and Key Levels Technical analysts identified several critical levels across major currency pairs. For USD/JPY, resistance emerged at 156.00 while support existed at 154.50. The pair’s 200-day moving average stood at 148.50. Meanwhile, the dollar index faced resistance at 105.00 with support at 103.80. The Chinese yuan’s trading band remained between 7.2000 and 7.3000 against the dollar. These technical levels provided frameworks for assessing potential breakout scenarios and intervention triggers. Market participants monitored several technical indicators closely. First, relative strength indices showed whether currencies approached overbought or oversold conditions. Second, moving average convergence divergence signals indicated momentum shifts. Third, Bollinger Bands highlighted volatility regimes. Fourth, Fibonacci retracement levels identified potential reversal points. Fifth, volume analysis confirmed whether price movements reflected broad participation. These technical tools complemented fundamental analysis in forming comprehensive market views. Conclusion Asian currencies demonstrated muted reactions to the dollar’s decline following the Federal Reserve’s rate decision, reflecting cautious market sentiment amid ongoing monetary policy divergence. The Japanese yen remained under particular pressure, with intervention speculation intensifying as the currency approached critical levels. Regional central banks maintained watchful stances while managing competing priorities of inflation control, growth support, and currency stability. Market participants will continue monitoring several key developments including U.S. economic data, Japanese policy responses, and broader risk sentiment. The Asian currency landscape therefore remains delicately balanced between domestic economic fundamentals and global monetary policy trajectories. FAQs Q1: Why did Asian currencies show muted reactions to the dollar’s decline? The muted reactions reflected several factors including cautious market sentiment, ongoing monetary policy divergence between the U.S. and Asia, concerns about potential intervention, and wait-and-see approaches by regional central banks monitoring broader economic implications. Q2: What level might trigger Japanese yen intervention? Market analysts identify the 155.00-156.00 range as a potential intervention trigger zone, though Japanese authorities consider multiple factors including volatility, speculative positioning, and economic impact rather than specific numerical levels alone. Q3: How does the Fed’s decision affect Asian economies? The Fed’s maintenance of higher rates sustains dollar strength pressure, affects capital flows to emerging Asia, influences import/export competitiveness through exchange rates, and constrains regional central banks’ policy flexibility amid inflation management challenges. Q4: What tools do Asian central banks have to manage currency volatility? Asian central banks employ multiple tools including foreign exchange intervention using substantial reserves, interest rate adjustments, verbal guidance, capital flow management measures, and macroprudential policies to maintain currency stability. Q5: How might sustained yen weakness affect other Asian currencies? Sustained yen weakness could create competitive devaluation pressures across Asia, particularly for export-oriented economies, potentially triggering broader regional currency adjustments and coordinated policy responses to maintain stability. This post Asian Currencies Remain Cautious as Dollar Weakens After Fed’s Crucial Rate Decision; Yen Intervention Looms first appeared on BitcoinWorld .

29 Jan 2026, 04:17

Gold tops $5,600 per ounce, extending weekly gains over 10%

Gold hit a new record above $5,600, jumping 4% Friday after already soaring 4.6% the day before, its biggest daily spike since March 2020. Spot gold is now up 28% on the year, while silver has gained nearly 65%, with both rallies draining market liquidity and making prices more volatile. Bitcoin dipped to $88,000, ETH fell under $3,000, and SOL dropped over 3%, as flows shifted to metals.

29 Jan 2026, 03:00

Famous Analyst Says Altcoin Holders Will Be Disappointed, Bitcoin Rotation Not Coming?

The long-awaited altcoin season may fail to meet expectations, according to comments shared by well-known market analyst Ted Pillows. In a recent post on X, Pillows pushed back against the popular belief that gains from Bitcoin and traditional safe-haven assets will naturally rotate into alts. This outlook is based on the analyst’s reconciliation with the fact that the structure of today’s crypto market is very different from past cycles. Why Bitcoin Gains Have Not Flowed Into Altcoins Many crypto market participants have been waiting for many months for a capital rotation from Bitcoin into altcoins, a trend that played out in previous market cycles, most especially in 2021. However, this has yet to play out as expected, as the crypto industry’s dynamics have matured from speculative inflows from investors since then. Particularly, Pillows pointed to the current 2024/2025 market cycle as a clear example of misplaced expectations among altcoin holders. According to his assessment, the rotation into alts never materialized because the dominant buyers of Bitcoin were institutions, not retail traders. Institutional participants, he noted, tend to accumulate Bitcoin as a long-term asset and do not actively rotate capital into altcoins the way retail investors did in previous cycles. This market behavior from the new cohort of investors has contributed to a strong Bitcoin dominance even during periods of corrections. According to CoinMarketCap’s dominance index, Bitcoin’s dominance is currently at 58.9%. The analyst extended this logic to current expectations around gold and silver. Right now, gold and silver are trading near record highs, with social media interest in these precious metals also at remarkable highs. Gold is currently trading above $5,270 per ounce and is steadily pushing to new highs. Silver is also pushing to new highs, currently trading around $113 per ounce. Some market participants believe that strength in these precious metals could eventually translate into Bitcoin inflows and then into altcoins. However, according to Pillows, this won’t happen again, which might leave altcoin holders disappointed. He pointed to the fact that the primary buyers of gold and silver today are central banks, not retail investors. What Needs To Change Before An Alt Rally Despite the skeptical outlook, Pillows did not claim that altcoins are permanently sidelined. Instead, he outlined conditions he believes are necessary for a widespread altcoin rally to take shape. One is meaningful regulatory clarity, particularly through the approval of the Clarity Act, which could improve institutional confidence across the digital asset space. The Clarity Act, however, is currently facing delays in Congress. The other condition for an altcoin rally is a return to aggressive liquidity expansion similar to the quantitative easing environment witnessed during the 2020/2021 cycle. Without those conditions in place, only a small subset of altcoins will manage to perform well, while many others will gradually lose relevance and slowly dump to zero.