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4 Feb 2026, 20:45

Same Macro Tape, Different Bid – Gold Absorbs Flows as Bitcoin Swings

Gold is currently trading at $4,906/oz as macro desks keep paying for convexity in the oldest hedge, while Bitcoin is trading at $72,639 after a bounce to $78,376. Same tape. Different bid. Gold Flows Tell the Story The “receipt” for gold’s new regime sits in flow math, not slogans. World Gold Council data for full-year 2025 shows global gold ETF holdings of +801 tonnes (second-strongest year on record) and Q4 ETF inflows of 175 tonnes, alongside Q4 bar-and-coin demand of 420 tonnes, the strongest Q4 in 12 years. In the U.S., WGC reports U.S. gold demand of 679 tonnes in 2025 (+140% y/y) and U.S. gold-backed ETF demand of 437 tonnes, bringing holdings to 2,019 tonnes (about $280bn in AUM as of Dec. 31, 2025). That’s known as allocation-scale buying. JP Morgan pushed the forward curve higher, as a Reuters-reported note set a $6,300/oz target for end-2026 and penciled in 800 tonnes of central-bank buying for 2026. JPMorgan predicts gold will surge to $6,300 per ounce by year-end. Analyst Gregory Shearer remains bullish, citing robust demand from central banks. https://t.co/YFCCFq9K5O — Business Insider (@BusinessInsider) February 2, 2026 Positioning mechanics have also amplified the move. CME raised margin requirements for Comex gold futures to 8% from 6% for non-heightened risk profiles (and to 8.8% from 6.6% for heightened-risk), with silver margins to 15% from 11%, tightening the noose on leveraged metals books after violent daily ranges. Bitcoin did not print the same “forced buyer” profile in this drawdown. CoinMarketCap’s tape shows BTC is still ~40% below its ATH of $126,198 , which keeps systematic vol-control and risk-parity style sizing mechanically smaller than in trend regimes. The market cleared risk by selling what trades like a high-beta liquidity proxy. How Desks Treat Gold vs. Bitcoin A gold bid backed by ETF balance-sheet absorption (801t in 2025) and central-bank flow expectations (800t in 2026) trades through rate scares and margin hikes because allocators can average in with low tracking error against benchmarks. Bitcoin’s “hedge” bid behaves like a risk-budget inventory on desks that fund it through liquidity. When margins rise, real yields reprice, or equity vol spikes, those desks cut BTC first because BTC sizing keys off VAR, not a quarterly asset-allocation committee memo. The post Same Macro Tape, Different Bid – Gold Absorbs Flows as Bitcoin Swings appeared first on Cryptonews .

4 Feb 2026, 20:32

Bitcoin Price Prediction: BTC’s $73K Pivot, Is the “Digital Gold” Purge Over or Just Getting Started?

The digital asset market is currently navigating a period of intense structural realignment. As of February 4, 2026, Bitcoin (BTC) is trading at around $73,350, reflecting a modest 24-hour decline of over 1.50% Although Bitcoin’s price is moving slowly right now, two main trends are shaping the market. First, there is a cautious mood as AI changes the tech sector. Second, more institutional-level Bitcoin infrastructure is emerging. The “Morning Bid” Effect: AI Winners and Losers Reuters’ latest “Morning Bid” notes that the AI boom is becoming more selective. Anthropic’s new AI “agents” have shaken up the software and data services industries, as investors start to see which companies will benefit from AI and which could be replaced. Software giants like Microsoft and AMD have faced recent ups and downs, even with strong earnings. Meanwhile, Walmart became the first retailer to reach a $1 trillion market value, showing that traditional companies using AI to cut costs are now favored by the market. This uncertainty has made Bitcoin’s market slow, and the asset is having trouble gaining strength after reaching its lowest point since before the 2024 US election. Bitcoin (BTC/USD) Technical Analysis: Navigating the “Three Black Crows” Bitcoin price prediction seems bearish as BTC’s technical indicators show the market is going through a needed correction. The weekly chart shows a “Three Black Crows” candlestick pattern, which points to ongoing selling pressure. Bitcoin Price Chart – Source: Tradingview Key Technical Levels to Watch: Support: The 200-week Exponential Moving Average (EMA) near $68,400 remains the critical floor. Resistance: A reclamation of the $83,598 level (the previous support-turned-resistance) is required to invalidate the current bearish bias. Momentum: The RSI (Relative Strength Index) is around 30, which means the market is oversold. This could mean a bounce is coming, but experienced traders want to see RSI divergence before calling a bottom. RWA and DeFi: The Fundamental Bull Case Even though Bitcoin’s price is flat in the short term, its uses are growing quickly. Mercado Bitcoin, a top digital asset company in Latin America, has issued over $20 million in tokenized private credit on the Rootstock Bitcoin sidechain and aims for $100 million by April. This helps connect traditional private debt with Bitcoin-backed liquidity. At the same time, Fireblocks announced it will add the Stacks layer to bring institutional-level DeFi to Bitcoin. This change cuts transaction times to about 29 seconds, much faster than Bitcoin’s usual 10-minute blocks, and lets institutions use BTC for lending and earning yield. Right now, about $5.5 billion is locked in Bitcoin DeFi, providing a strong base for the next phase of growth. 2026 Forecast: The Road to Recovery The “Path Tool” on the chart suggests a period of re-accumulation between $68,000 and $72,000 for the remainder of Q1. If Bitcoin can maintain its position above the 200-week EMA, a double bottom could act as the springboard for a move back toward $83,000 and eventually a rally toward psychological resistance at $100,000. For long-term investors, the current drop is a “quantum-ready” transition. As AI keeps changing traditional software, Bitcoin’s appeal as a decentralized and independent settlement system is growing. The combination of RWA tokenization and faster DeFi shows that even though prices are calm now, the groundwork for the next bull run is quietly being put in place. Bitcoin Hyper: The Next Evolution of BTC on Solana? d for security, Bitcoin Hyper adds what it always lacked: Solana-level speed. The result: lightning-fast, low-cost smart contracts, decentralized apps, and even meme coin creation, all secured by Bitcoin. Audited by Consult , the project emphasizes trust and scalability as adoption builds. And momentum is already strong. The presale has surpassed $31.2 million, with tokens priced at just $0.013675 before the next increase. As Bitcoin activity climbs and demand for efficient BTC-based apps rises, Bitcoin Hyper stands out as the bridge uniting two of crypto’s biggest ecosystems. If Bitcoin built the foundation, Bitcoin Hyper could make it fast, flexible, and fun again. Click Here to Participate in the Presale The post Bitcoin Price Prediction: BTC’s $73K Pivot, Is the “Digital Gold” Purge Over or Just Getting Started? appeared first on Cryptonews .

4 Feb 2026, 20:16

Evening digest: AMD’s crash, US-Iran tensions, Bitcoin may slump to $66K level

Markets are ending the day on edge as sharp moves ripple across stocks, commodities, and crypto. AMD slumped despite an earnings beat, underscoring how unforgiving investors have become around AI expectations. Oil prices jumped as US–Iran tensions flared back into focus, while gold and silver staged a violent rebound after last week’s washout. In crypto, bitcoin slid deeper into correction territory, with traders eyeing key support levels amid heavy liquidations. AMD stock crashes despite earnings beat AMD CEO Lisa Su moved to calm nerves after the chipmaker’s shares slumped , insisting AI demand is running far hotter than its latest outlook suggests. Speaking to CNBC a day after AMD beat fourth‑quarter estimates but issued what investors saw as cautious guidance, Su said orders for data‑center chips and CPUs have “exploded” over the past two to three months. AMD forecast first‑quarter revenue of about 9.8 billion dollars, slightly above Wall Street’s consensus, but below the hype that had built around AI. Su argued the company is still early in a multi‑year growth cycle as new AI systems ramp up. Oil prices soar on US-Iran tensions Oil prices jumped on Wednesday after a report said planned US-Iran nuclear talks were on the verge of collapsing, reigniting fears of supply disruptions in the Middle East. US West Texas Intermediate crude climbed about 3% to trade near 65 dollars a barrel, while Brent pushed toward 69 dollars. The move reversed Monday’s pullback, when hopes of negotiations had briefly eased tension premiums. The Axios report said Washington and Tehran were deadlocked over the venue and format of this week’s meeting, just days after the US military shot down an Iranian drone near a US aircraft carrier. Gold, silver extend rebound Gold and silver extended their dramatic rebound on Wednesday as bargain hunters and short‑covering piled in after last week’s crash, but traders are still bracing for wild swings. Spot gold jumped more than 2% to trade back above 5,000 dollars an ounce, while silver rallied nearly 6% toward the 90‑dollar mark, clawing back a chunk of Friday’s 30% plunge. Analysts say the move looks more like a technical snapback than the start of a fresh vertical leg higher. With the dollar, bond yields, and Fed expectations all in flux, few expect the recent, nerve‑shredding volatility to disappear quickly. Bitcoin looks at the $66,000 support level Bitcoin is back under pressure after a sharp 19% slide over the past month, dropping from a local peak near $95,000 to about $75,000. That level is crucial support, but leverage is still unwinding. CoinGlass data show more than $6 billion of positions have been liquidated in recent days, including a single-session hit of $2.4 billion in longs on January 30. Futures open interest has climbed even as prices fell, pointing to increasingly one‑sided bearish bets. If $75,000 gives way, chart watchers flag $66,000 as the next obvious downside target before any durable bottom can form. The post Evening digest: AMD's crash, US-Iran tensions, Bitcoin may slump to $66K level appeared first on Invezz

4 Feb 2026, 18:02

Peter Schiff says Bitcoin is in a long-term bear market against gold

Peter Schiff argues that Bitcoin is in a long-term bear market when priced in gold. This statement from Schiff comes after gold has rebounded back to over $5,000 and BTC has fallen under $74,000 for the first time since late 2024. Bitcoin collapsed to a new low of under $73,000 this Wednesday as the larger cryptocurrency market continues to experience a downward spiral. Veteran investor Peter Schiff took to X shortly after the news broke to share his opinion on the matter, stating that BTC is in a long-term bear market if priced in gold. He went on to say that it is now worth only 15 ounces of the precious metal after falling below $76,000. Schiff has been a long-term critic of Bitcoin, rejecting comparisons between it and gold as he believes cryptocurrency does not hold intrinsic value. He has remained very adamant in his opposition to BTC despite the surge in institutional adoption that has been seen in the past year. Regardless, his stance does hold a new weight, as Bitcoin continues to plunge in value while gold has rebounded above $5,000 after falling to around $4,650 yesterday. The asset is up over 15% since the beginning of the new year, while Bitcoin, on the other hand, is down by over 20% and is showing no sign of recovery in the near term. Digital gold vs physical gold The debate of Bitcoin versus gold has emerged as a topic of hot debate once again as crypto prices are in freefall while gold surges in value. The gap in performance between gold and BTC was very pronounced in 2025, with gold prices appreciating by 65% while BTC price lost 6% of its value. This scenario has given quite a bit of ammunition to someone like Peter Schiff, who has long criticized cryptocurrencies while being a strong advocate of gold. However, the question of whether BTC or gold is a better investment is not an easy question to answer and comes with a lot of nuances. One must consider various factors like personal risk preference, historical returns, and price volatility to get a better picture of the issue. Between 2011 and 2025, Bitcoin had a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of over 90% compared to roughly 6% for gold, with an individual standard deviation of around 150%, roughly ten times higher than gold. This shows that while Bitcoin has been a much better-performing asset since 2011, it has also shown a great deal more price volatility. While this has decreased over the years as Bitcoin matures, gold still proves to be a more stable asset that provides relatively predictable and consistent returns. Gold is also tangible, while Bitcoin is not, although this does not seem to be as much of a decisive issue anymore for potential investors of BTC as it once was due to the growing legitimization of the asset. Why Gold is currently outperforming BTC Ark Investment Management published a report in January 2026 examining why gold has been outperforming Bitcoin recently. They stated that the long-term ascent of gold prices is largely due to its supply being outpaced by global wealth creation. This is contrary to the idea that gold’s strong performance in 2025 is due to fears of inflation. Gold supply has also been increasing at a modest pace, which creates a supply-demand imbalance, ushering in higher prices. Conversely, Bitcoin has a fixed supply schedule that does not respond to price increases. While Ark’s Cathie Wood claims that this makes the asset more structurally scarce, it also means that its price performance is much more reliant on investor demand rather than supply-side constraints. Additionally, current global economic uncertainty has created a risk-off environment, which historically drives investors away from risk assets like cryptocurrency and into historically safe assets like gold. The macro environment right now is simply more favorable to precious metals like gold, and until risk appetite shifts, this means it will continue to outperform BTC. The smartest crypto minds already read our newsletter. Want in? Join them .

4 Feb 2026, 17:45

Strategic Bitcoin Reserve: Treasury Secretary’s Bold Proposal for Government Crypto Assets

BitcoinWorld Strategic Bitcoin Reserve: Treasury Secretary’s Bold Proposal for Government Crypto Assets WASHINGTON, D.C. — In a significant development for national financial strategy, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has publicly advocated for the formal establishment of a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve (SBR), framing the cryptocurrency not merely as seized property but as a legitimate government asset. This proposal follows the Treasury’s retention of approximately $500 million in Bitcoin from law enforcement seizures, a holding that public reports indicate has appreciated to a value exceeding $15 billion. The potential institutionalization of Bitcoin marks a pivotal moment in the relationship between sovereign states and decentralized digital assets. The Genesis of the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve Proposal Secretary Bessent’s comments, initially highlighted in a report by Bitcoin Magazine on the social media platform X, center on a pragmatic reassessment of seized cryptocurrency assets. Traditionally, government agencies like the U.S. Marshals Service have auctioned seized Bitcoin to convert it into U.S. dollars. However, Bessent’s advocacy suggests a strategic shift toward long-term holding. This perspective is grounded in the substantial appreciation witnessed in the Treasury’s experimental retention. The move from a $500 million book value to a $15 billion market valuation provides a compelling, data-driven argument for reconsidering asset management protocols. Furthermore, this proposal did not emerge in a vacuum. It arrives amid broader global discussions about central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) and the role of crypto in sovereign wealth funds. Nations like El Salvador have already adopted Bitcoin as legal tender, while others explore adding it to national reserves. The U.S. Treasury’s deliberation, therefore, represents a potentially more conservative yet impactful middle path—treating Bitcoin as a strategic financial asset rather than a circulating currency. Operational and Legal Framework for a Government Bitcoin Vault Establishing a formal Strategic Bitcoin Reserve would necessitate a complex new operational framework. Currently, seized cryptocurrencies fall under the jurisdiction of several agencies, including the Department of Justice and the Internal Revenue Service. A dedicated SBR would require clear legislation or executive action to define its purpose, management structure, and custody solutions. Experts point to the need for unparalleled security measures, likely involving a combination of cold storage hardware, multi-signature protocols, and rigorous audit trails to mitigate the risks of theft or loss. Legally, the government would need to clarify the asset’s status. Is it a commodity, a security, or a new class of strategic reserve? This classification affects accounting standards, tax implications, and congressional oversight. The precedent set by the Treasury holding gold in Fort Knox provides a conceptual model, but the technological and regulatory differences are profound. A 2024 report by the Congressional Research Service already questioned the legal authorities for long-term crypto holdings, indicating that Bessent’s proposal would likely spark significant legislative debate. Expert Analysis on Reserve Management and Market Impact Financial analysts and former policy makers have begun weighing the implications. “The sheer scale of the appreciation on the seized Bitcoin is a powerful economic signal,” notes Dr. Anya Petrova, a Georgetown University professor of financial technology. “It forces a conversation about opportunity cost. Selling an appreciating asset for immediate fiat may not align with long-term fiscal strategy.” However, skeptics highlight volatility. Bitcoin’s price history shows dramatic drawdowns following peaks, which could expose the government’s balance sheet to significant paper losses and public scrutiny. The market impact of a U.S. Strategic Bitcoin Reserve could be substantial. Institutional validation from the Treasury might reduce perceived regulatory risk for other large investors. Conversely, the knowledge that the U.S. government holds a massive, potentially sellable position could create a persistent overhang in the market, influencing trader psychology. The proposal also raises questions about the government’s role in the crypto ecosystem—would it become a passive holder, or could its actions be viewed as market manipulation? Historical Context and International Precedents The concept of a strategic reserve is deeply rooted in U.S. history, most notably with the Strategic Petroleum Reserve established in the 1970s. That reserve was created as a buffer against geopolitical supply shocks. A Strategic Bitcoin Reserve could be viewed through a similar lens—a hedge against potential disruptions in the traditional financial system or against the devaluation of fiat currencies. However, the comparison is imperfect, as oil is a consumable physical commodity with direct industrial utility, whereas Bitcoin’s value is purely monetary and belief-based. Internationally, several approaches offer precedent. As mentioned, El Salvador holds Bitcoin on its national balance sheet. More recently, reports suggest the sovereign wealth funds of nations like Norway and Singapore have allocated small percentages to digital asset funds. China, while banning public cryptocurrency trading, has been actively developing its digital yuan. The U.S. approach, as suggested by Bessent, appears distinct: leveraging assets obtained through law enforcement to build a position, rather than allocating taxpayer funds to purchase coins on the open market. Potential Economic and Policy Ramifications The creation of an SBR would have wide-ranging ramifications. From a fiscal perspective, it could create a new, non-tax revenue stream. The government could, in theory, spend Bitcoin appreciation by selling portions of its holdings, though this would require careful management to avoid market disruption. It also introduces Bitcoin as a potential tool in foreign policy, such as in sanctions regimes where traditional dollar-based systems are circumvented. On the regulatory front, the government becoming a direct stakeholder in Bitcoin’s success could create conflicts of interest. Would it regulate the asset class neutrally if its own portfolio’s health depended on its adoption? This “too big to fail” dynamic could influence future legislation like the fitful progress of comprehensive crypto market structure bills. The proposal inherently blurs the line between regulator and participant. Conclusion Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s advocacy for a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve represents a profound evolution in official U.S. engagement with cryptocurrency. Moving from viewing Bitcoin solely as a subject of law enforcement to a potential strategic government asset acknowledges its growing stature in the global financial landscape. The staggering appreciation of the Treasury’s retained Bitcoin provides a powerful financial rationale. However, implementing such a reserve would demand navigating a thicket of legal, operational, and ethical challenges. Whether this proposal gains political traction will be a critical story to watch, as it could fundamentally alter the relationship between the world’s largest economy and the pioneering digital asset. FAQs Q1: What is a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve (SBR)? A Strategic Bitcoin Reserve is a formal proposal for the U.S. government to hold Bitcoin as a long-term asset on its balance sheet, similar to strategic reserves of commodities like oil, rather than immediately auctioning seized cryptocurrencies. Q2: How much Bitcoin does the U.S. government currently hold? According to public reports cited by Bitcoin Magazine, the U.S. government retained roughly $500 million worth of Bitcoin from seizures. That holding has reportedly appreciated to a market value of over $15 billion. Q3: Why would the government create a Bitcoin reserve? Proponents argue it could serve as a strategic financial asset, a hedge against systemic risk, and a way to capture value from appreciating seized property. The massive unrealized gains on current holdings provide a economic incentive. Q4: What are the biggest challenges to creating an SBR? Key challenges include establishing a legal framework, ensuring ultra-secure custody, managing the asset’s extreme price volatility, and navigating potential conflicts of interest between being a regulator and a market participant. Q5: Have other countries done this? El Salvador holds Bitcoin as a national asset. Other nations’ sovereign funds have small exposures. The U.S. proposal is unique in suggesting a reserve built significantly from law enforcement seizures rather than direct purchases. This post Strategic Bitcoin Reserve: Treasury Secretary’s Bold Proposal for Government Crypto Assets first appeared on BitcoinWorld .

4 Feb 2026, 17:08

Is Bitcoin seeing the end of the ‘Tinkerbell effect?' – Deutsche Bank

More on Bitcoin USD Risk-Off Flows And A Tech/AI Panic - Market Reactions Bitcoin Breaks $80,000; Altcoins Suffer - BTC, ETH And SOL Outlook How U.S. Trade Policy Could Delay Bitcoin's Reversal Bitcoin falls again as the selloff looks to deepen Bitcoin holds steady after huge selloff