Invest ideasNews
26 Jan 2026, 19:23
Ethereum Price Prediction: Gold Like Setup Meets Rising Channel Test
Ethereum traded near $3,007 on the two week chart and near $2,954 on the weekly chart in two TradingView posts on X. Both setups point to a key decision zone, as ETH holds trend support while it sits below repeated resistance. Ethereum chart mirrors gold’s base, while breakout risk builds A side by side TradingView snapshot from X user apugeneral compares Ethereum on a two week chart with gold on an 18 day chart and argues the two markets share the same rhythm: a big peak, a long rounded bottom, then repeated tests under a rising ceiling. In the image, ETH last trades near $3,007, while gold prints near $4,832 after a steep run. Ethereum vs Gold Long Term Structure Comparison. Source: apugeneral on X On both charts, the curved white markings frame a similar cycle. First, each market tops and sells off. Next, each drifts through a broad, rounded basing phase that stretches for years. After that, both recover into a choppy range, where price keeps tagging a slightly rising resistance line. The yellow dots on each chart highlight those repeated touches, suggesting sellers keep defending the same zone, even as the floor trends up. However, the key difference sits on the right chart. Gold already broke above that resistance line and then accelerated into a near vertical move. Meanwhile, ETH still trades below its own rising ceiling, with the most recent swing failing to clear that marked barrier. If ETH follows the gold analogue, the “tell” becomes a clean two week close above the dotted resistance area, followed by price holding that line on a retest. In that scenario, the chart implies a higher probability of a fast expansion move toward the prior peak zone, because the range would shift from repeated rejection to acceptance. If ETH fails again and slips back into the middle of the range, then the comparison weakens, and the chart points to more sideways action before any decisive trend resumes. Ethereum stays inside rising weekly channel as price resets near mid range Meanwhile, A weekly TradingView chart from X user Crypto TheBoss shows Ethereum trading inside a long running ascending channel that has guided price since mid 2022. At the time of capture, ETH trades near $2,954, sitting close to the channel’s midpoint after pulling back from the upper boundary. Ethereum Weekly Ascending Channel Structure. Source: Crypto TheBoss on X The chart highlights a repeating structure. ETH rallies toward the upper band, fails to hold the highs, then corrects back toward the lower half of the channel before turning up again. The blue zigzag overlays emphasize that rhythm, with each downswing finding support above the channel floor rather than breaking the broader trend. As a result, the structure continues to define higher lows on a multi year basis. For now, price holds above the lower channel boundary, which remains the key technical reference. If ETH stabilizes above that rising support and reclaims momentum along the dashed midline, then the chart keeps the path open for another advance toward the upper band later in the cycle. However, a decisive weekly close below the lower boundary would mark the first structural failure of the channel since 2022 and signal a shift away from the established trend.
26 Jan 2026, 19:01
Gold Smashes $5,100 Record as Trump Tariff Threat Looms; ETH Slides Under $2,900
Gold climbed to a fresh all-time high, crossing $5,100 an ounce on Monday, extending its record-breaking run as investors seek shelter amid rising geopolitical tensions and global fiscal risks. Spot gold prices gained 2.4%, trading at $5,102 an ounce, before paring gains to $5,086. The surge comes days after President Donald Trump warned Canada that the U.S. would impose a 100% tariff on goods sold in the U.S. if the country strikes a trade deal with China. “If Canada makes a deal with China, it will immediately be hit with a 100% Tariff against all Canadian goods and products coming into the U.S.A.,” Trump wrote in a Truth Social post . However, Ethereum is moving in the opposite direction, trading at $2,877.15 with a 24-hour trading volume of $24.69 billion. The token now sits 36% below its $4,953.73 peak. The $5K Race Ends The “Gold versus ETH: Which hits $5K first?” market on Myriad has reached a resolution, with gold hitting the $5k mark first. The precious metal jumped 7.28% on the week and was recently priced at $4,938 before Monday’s breakout. Source: Myriad While gold is typically compared to Bitcoin, predictors on Myriad favored ETH for months, betting on its volatile upward mobility, but they’ve become less confident as crypto markets slide. The prediction market opened in October 2025. Institutional Flows Tell the Story Western ETF holdings have climbed by about 500 tonnes since the start of 2025. Goldman Sachs lifted its December 2026 gold price forecast to $5,400 an ounce, up from $4,900, arguing that hedges against global macro and policy risks have become “sticky.” Central bank purchases remain robust as Goldman estimates central-bank purchases are averaging around 60 tonnes a month, far above the pre-2022 average of 17 tonnes. “While this rally in gold has not, and will not, be linear, we believe the trends driving this rebasing higher in gold prices are not exhausted,” Natasha Kaneva, head of Global Commodities Strategy at J.P. Morgan, stated . “The long-term trend of official reserve and investor diversification into gold has further to run.” Ethereum saw $630 million in outflows last week, reflecting bearish sentiment as investors withdraw funds. A whale that had been dormant for nine years transferred 50,000 ETH, worth $145 million, to a Gemini wallet, a move often associated with liquidation intent. According to @EmberCN monitoring, a dormant 9-year ETH whale address activated in the last 12 hours, transferring 50,000 ETH (worth $145 million) to Gemini exchange. The address withdrew 135,000 ETH ($12.17 million) from Bitfinex 9 years ago when ETH was priced ~$90, representing… pic.twitter.com/akGYWcKoVC — Wu Blockchain (@WuBlockchain) January 26, 2026 Geopolitical Catalyst The precious metal’s surge comes as flashpoints from Greenland and Venezuela to the Middle East reflect higher geopolitical risk. Trump’s tariff threat follows tensions that mounted after Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney delivered an address at the World Economic Forum in Davos that was widely seen as a rebuke of the Trump administration’s policies. Earlier this month, Carney announced that Canada and China reached a preliminary deal to remove trade barriers. Under the tentative agreement, Beijing cut tariffs on some Canadian agricultural products, while Ottawa increased quotas for imports of Chinese electric vehicles. Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney said on Sunday that Ottawa has no plans to pursue a free trade deal with China, noting that the recent agreement only reduces tariffs on select sectors. Carney’s remarks came a day after President Trump threatened a 100% tariff on Canadian goods. What Desks Are Watching The gold-crypto divergence indicates a broader risk recalibration. Following a record-breaking 2025, gold entered 2026 with momentum intact as geopolitical tensions, falling real interest rates, and efforts by investors and central banks to diversify away from the dollar reinforce its safe-haven role. ETH failed to reclaim its “digital gold” narrative during peak macro stress. Analysts note that if ETH maintains support around the $2,500 level, it could reach an all-time high of $6,000 by 2026, but that thesis requires risk appetite to return. In August 2025, Trump raised the tariff on Canadian goods to 35%. A 100% tariff threat marks a major escalation. Markets are pricing in two interest-rate cuts by the Federal Reserve later this year. Traders await this week’s FOMC meeting, where the central bank is widely expected to hold rates steady. The post Gold Smashes $5,100 Record as Trump Tariff Threat Looms; ETH Slides Under $2,900 appeared first on Cryptonews .
26 Jan 2026, 18:47
Will Winter Storms Deter the Crypto Legislation?
Bitcoin lingers below $88,000 as gold and silver set new records. A winter storm delayed cryptocurrency law hearings in the Senate. Continue Reading: Will Winter Storms Deter the Crypto Legislation? The post Will Winter Storms Deter the Crypto Legislation? appeared first on COINTURK NEWS .
26 Jan 2026, 18:40
Stablecoin Market Cap Plummets $2.24B in 10-Day Liquidity Exodus
BitcoinWorld Stablecoin Market Cap Plummets $2.24B in 10-Day Liquidity Exodus Global cryptocurrency markets witnessed a significant liquidity drain in early May 2025, as the combined stablecoin market cap for the top 12 assets plunged by a staggering $2.24 billion in just ten days. This sharp contraction, reported by on-chain analytics firm Santiment, coincided with an 8% drop in Bitcoin’s price, signaling a potential broader shift in investor sentiment and capital allocation. The movement suggests funds are exiting the digital asset ecosystem, potentially flowing toward traditional safe havens like gold and silver, which have recently achieved record highs. Stablecoin Market Cap Signals Broader Capital Flight Analysts closely monitor the aggregate stablecoin market cap as a critical liquidity indicator for the entire cryptocurrency sector. Essentially, stablecoins act as the primary on-ramp and off-ramp for capital, functioning as digital dollars within crypto exchanges and decentralized finance (DeFi) protocols. Consequently, a shrinking supply typically indicates that investors are redeeming their stablecoin holdings for traditional fiat currency and withdrawing from the market. This process directly reduces the available capital for purchasing other cryptocurrencies, thereby exerting downward pressure on prices and limiting buying power. Santiment’s data provides a quantifiable measure of this exit, offering a clear snapshot of changing risk appetites. Historically, periods of expanding stablecoin supply have often preceded bullish market movements, as the dry powder sits ready for deployment. Conversely, the current contraction suggests a reversal of that trend. Market participants are seemingly opting for preservation over growth, a behavior commonly observed during times of macroeconomic uncertainty or market stress. This ten-day outflow represents one of the most pronounced short-term liquidity withdrawals observed since the market recovery began, prompting analysts to scrutinize its implications for the medium-term trajectory. The Mechanics of a Liquidity Drain The process is mechanical and visible on-chain. Investors sell volatile assets like Bitcoin or Ethereum for stablecoins such as Tether (USDT) or USD Coin (USDC). Subsequently, they initiate a redemption process with the stablecoin issuer, exchanging the digital token for an equivalent amount of U.S. dollars held in reserve. Finally, they withdraw these dollars from the crypto ecosystem entirely. Each step is recorded on public blockchains, allowing firms like Santiment to track the net movement. This transparency provides a real-time, albeit lagging, indicator of capital flows that traditional equity markets often lack. Parallel Trends in Traditional Safe Havens The liquidity drain from stablecoins did not occur in a vacuum. Simultaneously, traditional assets perceived as stores of value experienced significant inflows. Gold prices broke above $2,800 per ounce, setting a new all-time high, while silver also rallied strongly. This inverse correlation strengthens the hypothesis of a sector-wide rotation. Investors, facing potential volatility in both crypto and equity markets, appear to be reallocating capital toward assets with centuries-long histories as inflation hedges and crisis shelters. Several macroeconomic factors likely contributed to this dual trend. Persistent inflation data, shifting interest rate expectations from central banks, and geopolitical tensions have increased market volatility across all asset classes. In such an environment, the perceived risk of holding speculative digital assets rises relative to the stability offered by precious metals. The following table contrasts the performance of key assets during the same 10-day period reported by Santiment: Asset Class Representative Asset 10-Day Performance Implied Sentiment Cryptocurrency Bitcoin (BTC) -8% Risk-Off Stablecoin Supply Top 12 Aggregate Market Cap -$2.24B Liquidity Exit Precious Metals Gold (XAU) All-Time High Safe-Haven Demand Precious Metals Silver (XAG) Strong Rally Safe-Haven Demand This coordinated movement underscores the interconnectedness of modern financial markets. Capital is highly fluid and seeks the optimal balance of risk and reward, often moving swiftly between digital and traditional realms based on prevailing narratives and economic data. Implications for Cryptocurrency Market Structure The immediate impact of a shrinking stablecoin market cap is reduced market liquidity. Lower liquidity typically leads to: Increased Volatility: With less capital available to absorb large buy or sell orders, price swings can become more pronounced. Slower Recoveries: Any rebound from a market downturn requires fresh capital inflows. A depleted stablecoin supply means less readily available buying power, potentially prolonging consolidation phases. Pressure on DeFi: Decentralized finance protocols, which rely heavily on stablecoins for lending, borrowing, and yield generation, may experience reduced activity and higher borrowing costs as the primary medium of exchange contracts. However, it is crucial to contextualize this drawdown. The total stablecoin market cap remains above $150 billion, a figure substantially higher than during previous market cycles. This suggests a more mature and deeper market, even after accounting for the recent outflow. The event may represent a healthy deleveraging or profit-taking phase rather than a systemic flight. Seasoned analysts often view such contractions as necessary resets that can create stronger foundations for future growth by flushing out excessive leverage and speculative excess. Expert Analysis and Historical Precedent Market strategists often compare current liquidity flows to previous cycles. For instance, significant stablecoin outflows preceded the major market bottom in late 2022, indicating peak capitulation. The current withdrawal, while notable, is not yet of that magnitude. The key metric to watch will be the duration and total volume of the outflow. A short, sharp exit may indicate transient fear, while a prolonged drain could signal a more profound loss of confidence. Santiment’s role is to provide this data neutrally, allowing institutional and retail investors alike to make informed decisions based on on-chain reality rather than sentiment alone. Conclusion The $2.24 billion drop in the stablecoin market cap over ten days serves as a powerful on-chain signal of shifting capital flows. It highlights a current preference for traditional safe havens like gold and silver amid broader financial uncertainty. This liquidity drain directly impacts the cryptocurrency market’s buying pressure and may contribute to heightened volatility in the short term. Monitoring the stabilization and eventual regrowth of the stablecoin supply will be critical for gauging the return of investor confidence and the next phase of market momentum. Ultimately, this data point reinforces the importance of stablecoins as the lifeblood of crypto liquidity and a vital barometer for overall market health. FAQs Q1: What does a decreasing stablecoin market cap mean? A shrinking stablecoin market cap generally means investors are redeeming their stablecoins for traditional fiat currency and withdrawing that capital from the cryptocurrency ecosystem, reducing overall market liquidity. Q2: Why is the stablecoin supply considered a key indicator? Stablecoins function as the primary settlement layer and source of buying power within crypto markets. Their aggregate supply represents readily deployable capital, making its expansion or contraction a leading indicator of market sentiment and potential price direction. Q3: How does this relate to Bitcoin’s price drop? The drop in Bitcoin’s price and the stablecoin outflow are likely related. As investors exit to fiat, selling pressure increases on assets like Bitcoin, while simultaneously, the pool of available capital to buy the dip decreases, exacerbating downward moves. Q4: Could this liquidity drain be a positive sign long-term? Potentially. Sharp liquidity withdrawals can flush out weak leverage and excessive speculation, leading to healthier market foundations. It often indicates a capitulation phase, which historically has sometimes preceded market bottoms. Q5: What should investors watch for next? Investors should monitor for a stabilization and eventual increase in the total stablecoin market cap, which would signal renewed capital inflows and returning confidence. Additionally, watching for decoupling between crypto prices and safe-haven asset performance will be important. This post Stablecoin Market Cap Plummets $2.24B in 10-Day Liquidity Exodus first appeared on BitcoinWorld .
26 Jan 2026, 18:36
Evening digest: Nvidia’s bet CoreWeave, gold breaks $5,100, Bitcoin teeters at $88K
Markets opened the week with nerves on edge as Nvidia doubled down on CoreWeave in a $2 billion vote for AI infrastructure, even as sceptics questioned whether chipmakers’ funding customers signals late-cycle froth. Risk sentiment also turned defensive as gold blasted through $5,100 and silver hit fresh records on tariff threats and geopolitical strain. In US courts, Meta, TikTok, and YouTube faced a landmark addiction lawsuit with broader liability risks. Bitcoin, meanwhile, hovered near a critical support zone as shutdown odds rose. Nvidia’s $2 billion CoreWeave bet Nvidia poured another $2 billion into CoreWeave on Monday , acquiring 23 million shares at $87.20 each to become the second-largest shareholder and cementing its strategy beyond chip sales into infrastructure dominance. The neocloud builder now banks an additional $6 billion from Nvidia’s prior 2032 services commitment, with both firms racing to construct 5 gigawatts of AI data center capacity by 2030, roughly equivalent to powering 4 million US households. CoreWeave will deploy Nvidia’s forthcoming CPU and storage systems first, gaining early-mover advantage on breakthrough tech. CEO Jensen Huang framed this as foundational infrastructure for the “AI industrial revolution,” but Wall Street increasingly questions whether Nvidia funding its own customers signals an AI bubble or calculated vertical integration. CoreWeave stock surged 12%, though recent volatility over massive debt levels, $14.2 billion to Meta, $22.4 billion to OpenAI, keeps bears circling. Meta, TikTok, YouTube face lawsuit over addiction claims Meta, TikTok, and YouTube face their first courtroom gauntlet on Tuesday in Los Angeles as a 19-year-old plaintiff known as K.G.M. alleges the platforms deliberately engineered addictive features driving her depression, self-harm, and suicidal ideation. Mark Zuckerberg will testify; Snap already settled for undisclosed terms last week. The bellwether case could trigger over 1,000 pending personal injury lawsuits, representing 1,500+ claims across the MDL, far exceeding tobacco litigation in scope. K.G.M. claims infinite scrolling, algorithmic recommendations, and sextortion enabled by Instagram’s lax moderation (taking two weeks to address exploitation) produced clinical mental health deterioration. YouTube argues it differs fundamentally from social media; TikTok remains silent on strategy. Tech companies countered Tuesday morning by highlighting parental control investments and teen safety features, hiring opioid-litigation veteran lawyers from Covington & Burling to draw parallels to corporations denied addiction liability previously. Gold vaults past $5,100 Spot gold pierced the $5,100 barrier Monday , hitting $5,110.50 intraday as investors capitulated into the ultimate fear asset amid Trump’s 100% Canada tariff threats and escalating global tensions. The 2.2% surge extends an unprecedented 64% 2025 rally, the largest annual gain since 1979, and prices have already climbed 18% year-to-date. Central banks remain relentless buyers, with Goldman Sachs calculating monthly acquisitions at 60 tonnes versus pre-2023 averages of 17 tonnes, while China notched its 14th consecutive month of buying in December. The “debasement trade” increasingly dominates: investors fleeing currencies and Treasuries amid advanced-economy debt spirals and fiscal deterioration see gold as inflation-proof wealth preservation. Silver exploded to a record $112+ an ounce, up 147% in 2025, and platinum touched $2,897. Bitcoin caught between $88K support and $74K capitulation Bitcoin clung to $87,000–$88,500 Monday as US shutdown odds surged to 78% , triggering a classic risk-off rotation that punished leveraged longs and widened the CME gap from weekend trading. The structure is deteriorating: spot ETFs bled $1.3 billion in two sessions; liquidation heatmaps show dense long traps around $88,000–$89,000, making the current level a “hair-trigger zone” where momentum breaks either way. Technical layers reveal a four-stage downside map if macro stress persists. First target: $82,000–$85,000 completes a two-month consolidation test (3–6% down). If breached decisively, April 2025 lows at $74,000 represent the medium-term objective, a 15.6% decline that would signal the current bounce failed. Catastrophic break at $68,000 (200-week EMA) opens $53,000 terminal flushing if broader credit stress hits. The post Evening digest: Nvidia's bet CoreWeave, gold breaks $5,100, Bitcoin teeters at $88K appeared first on Invezz
26 Jan 2026, 18:28
Carry trades in emerging markets up in 2026, as currencies hit multi-year highs
People who moved their money from the dollar into emerging market currencies are seeing strong profits at the start of 2026, and financial experts at major banks think this winning streak will keep going after last year’s impressive gains. These investment approaches, known as carry trades, have already climbed 1.3% in 2026. A Bloomberg index that tracks returns from eight emerging markets shows these strategies are continuing their momentum from 2023, when they jumped 18%, the best performance since 2009. Carry trades work by buying currencies from countries with high interest rates using borrowed money from countries where borrowing costs are cheaper. On Monday, the Bloomberg index stood above 291, coming within 5% of the record set back in 2011. Currencies ranging from South Africa’s rand to Colombia’s peso are trading at their highest levels in years. Analysts at Morgan Stanley, Bank of America Corp., and Citigroup Inc. all expect these gains to continue building. Beyond just currency values going up, these strategies are also making money because real interest rates remain high across the developing world. High interest rates drive strategy success Central banks in many emerging countries are only slowly cutting interest rates, even though inflation numbers show prices are rising more slowly. “For carry trades, we are looking at countries where monetary policy is tight and central banks are considered credible,” said James Lord, who leads emerging market strategy at Morgan Stanley. He pointed to Brazil’s real, Turkey’s lira, and the Czech koruna as his top picks for 2026. Latin American currencies are doing particularly well. Brazil’s real has already delivered returns of 4.3% so far this year, adding to last year’s gain of 23.5%. The country keeps interest rates at 15% even though inflation has moved closer to what the central bank wants. Citi strategists are also suggesting investors buy the real against the dollar, along with the Turkish lira. However, not all emerging currencies are succeeding. As reported by Cryptopolitan previously, India’s rupee, which was the worst performer last year, continues to lose ground with a drop of about 2% in carry trade terms this year. Indonesia’s rupiah has also caused losses for investors. The Bloomberg index shows the record year for carry strategies was 2003, with a 25% return. For investors to see similar big gains this time, the dollar needs to keep weakening, and emerging currency swings must stay small. Traders are watching JPMorgan Chase & Co’s volatility gauge closely, which hit a three-week high recently after a long period of calm. President Donald Trump’s policies are playing a major role in pushing down the dollar’s value. Recently, Trump threatened to impose 10% tariffs on European countries in a dispute over Greenland, which rattled markets and added to concerns about the dollar. Financial markets see this as increasing political risk around the US currency. Dollar’s reserve currency status under question There are also growing worries about the dollar’s position as the world’s main reserve currency. With US policy becoming less predictable, European Union countries that hold $8 trillion in US assets may have leverage in trade disputes. Trump’s tariffs represent the biggest US tax increase since 1993 , equal to 0.55% of the country’s economic output, according to analysts. Fears of a wider trade war are building as these policies take shape. Bank of America strategist Alex Cohen thinks carry trades will keep doing well, but only if market volatility stays low. “That’s a big ‘if’ as we sit here today,” Cohen said, pointing to possible conflicts around the world that could shake things up. Despite these risks, the current environment of high emerging market interest rates combined with dollar weakness continues to favor investors willing to take on emerging market currencies. Whether this trend can match the historic returns of 2003 remains uncertain, but major banks are betting the conditions are in place for continued gains throughout 2026. Emerging markets have shown surprising strength against expectations that trade tensions would hurt them most. With central banks in developing countries maintaining credibility and keeping tight monetary policy, the fundamentals appear solid for now. However, any sudden spike in volatility or major geopolitical event could quickly reverse these gains. The success of carry trades in 2026 will depend on whether the current calm in currency markets can hold, and whether Trump’s unpredictable policy moves continue to weaken the dollar without triggering a broader financial crisis. The smartest crypto minds already read our newsletter. Want in? Join them .
