hodler

26 Jan 2026, 17:45

Polymarket Traders Weigh Silver’s Ceiling and Gold’s Staying Power Into 2026

At the time of writing, gold is changing hands at $5,079.30 per ounce, while silver is trading at $113.24—levels that currently make today’s prediction market wagers look less like fringe curiosities and more like forward-looking scoreboards. Gold and Silver Prediction Markets Favor Strength, Not Moonshots Polymarket’s metals contracts offer a rare window into crowd expectations,

26 Jan 2026, 17:36

Bitcoin in Focus as Yen Surges on NY Fed Rate Check: What's Next?

Bitcoin remains range-bound as the New York Fed’s intervention in the yen triggers a global carry trade unwind and sparks a flight to gold.

26 Jan 2026, 17:30

Bitcoin Price Enters Next Parabolic Phase, Analysts Set New Targets

The recent market downturn has not deterred analysts from maintaining a bullish outlook on the Bitcoin price. New reports from these market watchers suggest Bitcoin may be entering a new parabolic phase , potentially signaling the end of its prolonged correction. While one analyst points to BTC’s correlation with gold as a signal of a possible ATH, another applies an Elliott Wave analysis to set a new price target for the leading cryptocurrency. Bitcoin Price Prepares For $245,000 Parabolic Move A recent technical analysis by Crypto Tice suggests that gold has taken the lead , while Bitcoin currently stands at a transition point. The analyst presented a weekly price chart tracking both assets, and showing how gold’s price movement could be used to determine Bitcoin’s next parabolic move to a $245,000 all-time high. The chart tracks gold and Bitcoin’s price action from 2016 through projected moves into 2026, showing a repeating pattern where uncertainty peaks in gold first. After which, capital flows into the precious metal, its price then breaks out and ranges, and then money rotates into BTC . Crypto Tice has said that this rotation phase has repeated in every market cycle. In the first cycle, from July 2017 to Q4 2018, gold climbed to an all-time high before trading in a narrow range, signaling broader trend exhaustion rather than a breakdown. Shortly afterward, Bitcoin launched a strong rally, reflecting a rotation of capital from the precious metal into a higher-risk asset. The same pattern appeared during the 2020-2021 cycle. Gold reached a new peak and stalled in a tight range, while Bitcoin followed with a powerful breakout to the upside. That surge aligned with another green profit rotation zone on the analyst’s price chart. On the far right side of the chart, Crypto Tice has revealed that gold has once again reached a record high in the current cycle and is consolidating inside a red range. At the same time, Bitcoin has already moved sharply higher and is now experiencing a modest pullback . The analyst calls this overlap a “transfer window” between the two assets. Crypto Tice noted that this recent pause mirrors the same pattern seen in past cycles before Bitcoin staged a major price rally. The analyst has predicted that if BTC continues to follow this historical trend, it could soon enter a new parabolic phase, potentially triggering a price surge above $245,000. Elliott Wave Analyst Shares Next BTC Price Target In a separate analysis, crypto market expert Merlijn the Trader has shared a video chart analysis showing a repeating Elliott wave structure that could indicate Bitcoin’s next potential bullish target. From late 2024 to mid 2025, BTC formed a five-wave pattern, creating higher lows and building a base that led to a significant price rally. According to Merlijn the Trader, Bitcoin is repeating this five-wave pattern in the current cycle. Waves 1 through 3 are already complete, showing higher lows, while Waves 4 and 5 are forming a base following a massive price crash. Once this stage completes, the analyst predicts BTC could rally strongly from its current price above $87,900 toward $124,000.

26 Jan 2026, 17:05

Here’s Why Gold Is Beating Bitcoin in a Weak-Dollar Market

Bitcoin (BTC) fell to $86,000 on Sunday as global markets turned defensive, even while the U.S. dollar weakened on fears of currency intervention and bond market stress in Japan. The move has challenged the common view that a falling dollar automatically lifts Bitcoin, with capital instead flowing into gold and silver. The split matters because it shows where investors are seeking protection during the current bout of uncertainty and why BTC is trading more like a risk asset than a hedge as confidence in fiat currencies wavers. Weak Dollar, Risk-Off Mood Keeps Pressure on BTC Market observers note that the dollar’s recent decline has not propelled Bitcoin higher. Instead, capital has flowed decisively into traditional safe havens. In a January 26 analysis, CryptoQuant contributor GugaOnChain argued that dollar weakness only supports Bitcoin in specific cases, such as high inflation or easy liquidity. However, investors tend to favor assets with long-established roles as stores of value when fear and capital preservation drive currency moves. This perspective may help explain the present split. The dollar’s softness appears linked to rumors of yen intervention and broader geopolitical stress, including renewed U.S. tariff threats against Europe. “If the devaluation stems from a crisis of confidence and extreme risk aversion – as now, with the dollar weakening on rumors of yen intervention – cryptos tend to fall alongside stocks,” the analyst wrote. In this environment, investors are looking for proven stores of value. “People are not chasing returns; they are protecting purchasing power because confidence elsewhere is dying fast,” posted market observer Daniel Tschinkel. He added that physical gold is trading at high premiums in parts of Asia, indicating strong real demand beyond paper markets. Gold and Silver Attract Flows as Bitcoin Lags The scale of the move into precious metals is extraordinary. As of this writing, gold’s market cap had reached a record $35 trillion, and silver’s had hit $6 trillion, according to data from The Kobeissi Letter. This increase has coincided with notable capital rotation away from crypto assets. On-chain analytics firm Lookonchain noted that an unnamed investor, who lost $18.8 million on Ethereum (ETH) in two weeks, has since spent over $36 million since December 13 to buy a gold-backed token and is now sitting on an unrealized profit of more than $2 million. The performance gap is also stark. A comparison posted on X by analyst Ash Crypto shows that a $100,000 investment one year ago would now be worth $180,000 in gold and $342,000 in silver, but only $85,900 in BTC. Additionally, trader Ted Pillows pointed out that the number one cryptocurrency is down 56% against gold since December 2024, with the monthly relative strength index for the pair at its lowest level ever. All said, the current landscape suggests that until the macroeconomic fear driving investors into physical metals subsides, Bitcoin’s established narrative as a digital safe haven faces a serious test. As GugaOnChain stated, “For BTC to thrive, the weakness of the American currency must come from risk appetite, not from fear.” The post Here’s Why Gold Is Beating Bitcoin in a Weak-Dollar Market appeared first on CryptoPotato .

26 Jan 2026, 16:50

Crypto Misses the Macro Trade as Retail Dives Into Gold, Stocks

Gold is topping $5,000. Stocks keep booming. The dollar is falling again. Yet Bitcoin — hailed as both a momentum and “debasement” trade — is sitting out the action. Its price is stalling, volumes are limp, and longtime believers are drifting toward more dependable markets like equities and precious metals.

26 Jan 2026, 16:00

Bitcoin Bulls Eye Dollar Weakness As Yen Intervention Rumors Build

Bitcoin traders are once again anchoring to FX, after intervention rumors around USD/JPY revived a familiar tug-of-war: short-term shock risk from a strengthening yen versus the longer-horizon bid that typically follows a softer dollar and easier global liquidity. The spark over the weekend was a viral X thread (2.9 million views) from Bull Theory (@BullTheoryio), which framed reported “rate checks” by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York as a prelude to coordinated action. “The New York Fed has already done rate checks, which is the exact step taken before real currency intervention,” the account wrote. “That means the US is preparing to sell dollars and buy yen. This is rare. And historically, when this happens, global markets surge.” Bitcoin In The Crosshairs Bull Theory pointed to the macro backdrop in Japan , years of yen weakness, Japanese bond yields at multi-decade highs, and a still-hawkish Bank of Japan, as the pressure cooker forcing officials toward more aggressive signaling. In the thread’s telling, the key variable is coordination: Japan acting alone “does not work,” while joint US-Japan action “does,” citing 1998 and the Plaza Accord era as historical reference points. A Bloomberg report cited by the account described the yen’s sharp jump on speculation that Japanese authorities could be preparing intervention to arrest the currency’s slide, after traders reported the New York Fed had conducted rate checks with major banks. The story said the yen rallied as much as roughly 1.6% to around 155.90 per dollar, marking its strongest level since December in that session. THE FED IS PREPARING TO SELL U.S. DOLLARS AND BUY JAPANESE YEN FOR THE FIRST TIME THIS CENTURY. The New York Fed has already done rate checks, which is the exact step taken before real currency intervention. That means the U.S. is preparing to sell dollars and buy yen. This… pic.twitter.com/7xFReOFoDo — Bull Theory (@BullTheoryio) January 25, 2026 The fight in the replies was less about whether markets moved and more about what a “rate check” actually signals. Daniel Kostecki (@Dan_Kostecki) dismissed the viral framing outright, arguing the mechanism is often misread. “The Japanese asked the NY Fed to act as their agent in the American market,” Kostecki wrote. “NY Fed employees then started calling banks in New York to perform the ‘rate check’—strictly at the Japanese’s request. If officials from Tokyo had called New York banks, traders might have ignored it as a ‘local Japanese problem.’ But when the Fed calls, banks treat it as a signal that a joint intervention (USA + Japan) might be coming.” That distinction matters for crypto because the thread’s “bull case” leans heavily on the idea that selling dollars to buy yen mechanically weakens the dollar and expands liquidity , conditions many macro-focused crypto traders associate with risk-asset upside. Ted (@TedPillows) echoed the liquidity-first interpretation while flagging the path dependency. “The Fed is preparing for a possible yen intervention,” he wrote, before laying out the causal chain: dollars sold, yen bought, dollar weaker, liquidity higher, risk assets helped, then warning that “a strengthening yen could first cause a similar crash like in August 2024.” After that, he added, markets could stabilize and rally. Michael A. Gayed (@leadlagreport), Portfolio Manager of The Free Markets ETF, offered a different rationale for why Washington would care, suggesting the Fed is acting to prevent a scenario where Japan would need to sell US Treasuries to raise dollars to intervene—“It’s not that Japan will panic. It’s the Fed that will panic,” he wrote. Bull Theory’s most concrete crypto claim was that the setup contains both a near-term trap and a medium-term tailwind. The account argued there are “hundreds of billions of dollars tied into the yen carry trade ,” meaning abrupt yen strength can force deleveraging in the very assets, stocks and crypto, funded with cheap yen borrowing. As an example, the account pointed to August 2024, claiming a small BoJ rate hike pushed the yen higher and “Bitcoin crashed from $64K to $49K in six days,” with crypto losing “$600B in value.” Bull Theory framed that episode as the template for the “catch” in 2026: yen strength can be toxic in the first act, even if sustained dollar weakness ultimately improves the liquidity backdrop for Bitcoin. LondonCryptoClub (@LDNCryptoClub) leaned into that lagged-liquidity framing, arguing that a weaker dollar tends to filter into risk assets with a delay, while also introducing an additional US liquidity variable. “Continued and accelerated breakdown of the dollar will be good for Bitcoin and broad risk over the next few months,” the account wrote, adding that the dollar “tends to act with a 3 months lag” outside of “knee jerk reactions.” It also warned that a potential US government shutdown and subsequent Treasury General Account rebuild could offset some of the positive liquidity impulse. At press time, Bitcoin traded at $87,926.