Invest ideasNews
22 Jan 2026, 08:30
Circle Brings Stablecoins Into the United Nations Aid System
The goal of the grant is to improve how funds move across UN agencies and make aid payments faster, cheaper, and more transparent. UN officials have said digital payments can reduce administrative costs and stretch limited humanitarian budgets. Meanwhile, Elliptic reported that the Central Bank of Iran accumulated approximately $507 million in Tether USDT during a period when Iran’s rial sharply declined in value. The firm said the stablecoins may have been used to support the currency or facilitate trade, with funds moving through domestic exchange Nobitex before being shifted across blockchains. Stablecoins Gain Ground in Global Aid Stablecoin issuer Circle expanded its involvement in global humanitarian finance by issuing a new grant to help support the rollout of digital financial infrastructure across the United Nations system. The initiative was announced during the World Economic Forum in Davos, and it is designed to make humanitarian aid payments faster, more transparent, and more cost-efficient by modernizing how funds move across UN agencies. The grant, delivered through the Circle Foundation, will support the UN’s Digital Hub of Treasury Solutions (DHoTS), a program focused on improving how monetary value is transferred within the UN ecosystem. While Circle did not reveal the size or structure of the grant, it explained that the funding will help streamline payment flows and reduce friction caused by legacy financial systems that still dominate humanitarian finance. According to Circle , tens of billions of dollars in annual humanitarian funding currently rely on slow and costly infrastructure, limiting the overall effectiveness of aid delivery. This latest effort builds on Circle’s earlier collaboration with the UN Refugee Agency, UNHCR, and DHoTS in 2022. That pilot program facilitated stablecoin-based aid payments using USDC to support displaced Ukrainians. The success of that initiative helped lay the groundwork for experimentation with blockchain-based payment rails inside the UN system. Announcement from Circle Officials in the UN have framed stablecoins as a practical tool for maximizing limited resources. UN Development Programme administrator Alexander De Croo said digital payment infrastructure can help the organization “make every dollar work harder” at a time when humanitarian budgets are under pressure. By reducing settlement delays and administrative overhead, stablecoins could allow more aid to reach recipients directly. Barham Salih said that the use of modern financial technology is not only about efficiency, but also about preserving dignity and choice for people forced to flee their homes. He believes that digital payments can empower recipients by giving them more control over how and when aid is used, while still ensuring accountability for donor funds. Circle’s support for the UN comes shortly after the company formally launched the Circle Foundation in December. Iran’s Central Bank Quietly Accumulates USDT Meanwhile, blockchain analytics firm Elliptic reported that the Central Bank of Iran accumulated more than half a billion dollars’ worth of Tether USDT. Evidence suggests that the stablecoins were used to support Iran’s collapsing national currency and facilitate international trade. According to a report that was released on Wednesday, Elliptic estimates that Iran’s central bank held approximately $507 million in USDT, the US dollar-pegged stablecoin issued by Tether. The analytics firm said the accumulation coincided with a period of severe economic turmoil, during which the Iranian rial lost roughly half its value in just eight months, hitting record lows against the US dollar. Elliptic believes the central bank may have used USDT to conduct de-facto open market operations, purchasing rials through crypto markets in an effort to slow the currency’s decline. This is an approach that would traditionally rely on foreign exchange reserves. (Source: Elliptic) Elliptic explained that much of the central bank’s USDT activity was routed through Nobitex, one of Iran’s largest cryptocurrency exchanges. This was the case until June of 2025, when Nobitex suffered a major security breach. After that incident, the report suggests the central bank adjusted its strategy, moving its USDT through a cross-chain bridge to shift funds from the TRON network to Ethereum, before exchanging the assets and distributing them across other blockchains and platforms. Despite the opaque movement of funds, Elliptic said that Tether has the technical ability to freeze wallets holding USDT. The firm pointed to a June 2025 incident in which several wallets linked to the central bank were blacklisted, which resulted in the freezing of roughly $37 million in stablecoins. The report also shed some light on a surge in crypto usage across Iran. Data from Chainalysis shows that Iran’s cryptocurrency ecosystem exceeded $7.8 billion in activity in 2025, as citizens turned to digital assets like Bitcoin to protect savings amid inflation, sanctions, and economic instability.
22 Jan 2026, 07:46
What Are the Crypto Tax Expectations for the Indian Union Budget 2026-27?
BitcoinWorld What Are the Crypto Tax Expectations for the Indian Union Budget 2026-27? The Indian Union Budget 2026-27 , set to be presented on Sunday, February 1, 2026 , is a critical event for digital asset investors hoping for relief from one of the world’s most stringent tax regimes. While the industry is heavily lobbying for tax rationalization and a reduction in Tax Deducted at Source (TDS) to boost domestic liquidity, market analysts anticipate that the government will likely maintain the status quo to discourage speculative trading. This guide outlines the current tax framework, industry demands, and the government’s probable stance on Virtual Digital Assets (VDAs) for the upcoming fiscal year. What Is the Current Crypto Tax Framework in India as of 2026? Since the introduction of specific VDA tax laws, India has maintained a rigorous taxation structure designed to track transactions and limit speculative participation. As of January 2026 , the following rules apply to all Indian crypto investors: Flat 30% Tax Rate: Income generated from the transfer of VDAs is taxed at a flat rate of 30% , plus applicable surcharge and cess, regardless of the individual’s income tax slab. No Expense Deductions: Investors cannot claim deductions for any expenses (such as internet costs, advisory fees, or platform charges) other than the cost of acquisition . No Set-off or Carry Forward: Losses incurred from one VDA transaction cannot be set off against gains from another VDA transaction, nor can they be carried forward to subsequent assessment years. 1% TDS Liability: A 1% Tax Deducted at Source (TDS) is levied under Section 194S on the total consideration paid for VDA transfers, ensuring that every transaction leaves a footprint for tax authorities. What Are the Key Industry Demands vs. Government Stance? The narrative leading up to the 2026 Budget is defined by a tug-of-war between industry stakeholders seeking survival and a government focused on financial stability and revenue collection. Tax Rationalization vs. Status Quo: Industry Demand: Exchanges and bodies like the Bharat Web3 Association are requesting a review of the 30% tax rate , arguing it should align with other capital assets like equities. Government Stance: Providing tax relief is unlikely, as the government views crypto as a speculative asset class similar to gambling or lottery winnings, rather than a developmental financial instrument. TDS Reduction vs. Tracking Mechanism: Industry Demand: There is a strong push to lower the 1% TDS to 0.01% or 0.1% . Industry leaders argue this would restore liquidity to Indian exchanges and discourage users from moving to non-compliant offshore platforms. Government Stance: The Finance Ministry maintains that the 1% TDS is essential for tracking transaction trails and preventing money laundering, making a reduction improbable. Loss Set-off Provisions: Industry Demand: Investors seek fairness in allowing VDA losses to be set off against gains, similar to stock market regulations. Government Stance: The “ring-fencing” of VDA losses is intentional to discourage retail participation in volatile assets, suggesting no relaxation in this area. How Will the Government Approach Crypto Regulation and CBDCs in 2026? Beyond taxation, the 2026 Budget is expected to reinforce the government’s broader strategy regarding the digital economy and compliance. Focus on Compliance: The government aims to formalize the sector by enforcing strict reporting standards. This includes the mandatory disclosure of VDA holdings in the “Schedule VDA” of Income Tax Return (ITR) forms. Promotion of Digital Rupee (CBDC): The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) will likely continue to receive policy support to promote the e-Rupee (CBDC) as the only safe, sovereign-backed digital currency, positioning it as a stable alternative to private cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin or Ethereum . International Collaboration: Rather than introducing a standalone “Crypto Bill” immediately, India is expected to continue advocating for a globally coordinated regulatory framework, a stance reiterated during its G20 presidency discussions. Frequently Asked Questions Will the crypto tax be reduced in the Indian Budget 2026? It is highly unlikely that the crypto tax will be reduced in the Union Budget 2026-27 . Most experts predict that the Finance Ministry will maintain the current flat 30% tax rate on VDA income to discourage speculative trading and ensure revenue stability, despite industry lobbying. Can I set off crypto losses against gains in India in 2026? No, under current laws expected to persist through 2026 , you cannot set off losses from one virtual digital asset against gains from another. For example, if you lose money on Bitcoin but make a profit on Ripple , you must pay a flat 30% tax on the Ripple profits without deducting the Bitcoin losses. What is the TDS rate for crypto transfers in India? The TDS rate for crypto transfers is currently 1% under Section 194S of the Income Tax Act. This is deducted from the total transaction value (consideration) whenever a transfer takes place on an Indian exchange, serving primarily as a transaction tracking mechanism for the government. Conclusion As the Indian Union Budget 2026-27 approaches on February 1, 2026 , crypto investors should prepare for continuity rather than change. While the industry presents a compelling case for tax rationalization and TDS reduction to curb capital flight, the government’s priority remains strict compliance and the promotion of the Digital Rupee . Consequently, the stringent tax regime—characterized by a 30% flat tax and 1% TDS —is expected to remain the reality for Indian crypto participants for the coming fiscal year. This post What Are the Crypto Tax Expectations for the Indian Union Budget 2026-27? first appeared on BitcoinWorld .
22 Jan 2026, 07:30
Younger Americans Trust Crypto Far More Than Banks, OKX Survey Finds
OKX survey shows Gen Z and Millennials far more trusting of crypto platforms than Baby Boomers. OKX released survey results in the United States on January 21, 2026 showing 40% of Gen Z and 41% of Millennials give crypto platforms high trust scores (7+), versus just 9% of Baby Boomers, while 74% of Boomers rate
22 Jan 2026, 07:00
Asian Currencies Stumble as Trump’s Soothing Tariff Comments Ease Trade Fears; Australian Dollar Soars on Jobs Surge
BitcoinWorld Asian Currencies Stumble as Trump’s Soothing Tariff Comments Ease Trade Fears; Australian Dollar Soars on Jobs Surge Asian financial markets experienced divergent currency movements on Thursday, February 13, 2025, as former President Donald Trump’s measured comments on trade policy eased immediate tariff concerns while unexpectedly strong Australian employment data propelled the Aussie dollar to its highest level in fifteen months. This development highlights the complex interplay between geopolitical rhetoric and fundamental economic indicators in shaping regional forex dynamics. Asian Currencies Face Mixed Pressures Amid Evolving Trade Landscape Most Asian currencies weakened against the U.S. dollar during Thursday’s trading session, despite Trump’s surprisingly conciliatory tone regarding potential tariffs. Market analysts immediately noted that Trump’s comments represented a significant departure from his previous aggressive trade rhetoric. Consequently, regional currencies including the Chinese yuan, South Korean won, and Japanese yen all registered modest declines ranging from 0.3% to 0.8%. Several factors contributed to this seemingly counterintuitive movement. First, investors interpreted Trump’s softened stance as reducing immediate trade war risks, which paradoxically diminished the safe-haven appeal of some Asian currencies. Second, the U.S. dollar found support from revised Federal Reserve interest rate projections for 2025. Third, underlying concerns about regional economic growth trajectories continued to weigh on currency valuations. Trump’s Evolving Trade Rhetoric: From Confrontation to Negotiation During a campaign event in Ohio, former President Trump addressed international trade policy with unexpected nuance. “We need smart tariffs, not just big tariffs,” Trump stated, emphasizing that any future trade measures would prioritize American economic interests while considering global supply chain realities. This marked contrast to his 2018-2019 trade war approach, which featured sweeping tariffs and escalating tensions. Market participants quickly analyzed the implications of this rhetorical shift. “Trump’s comments suggest a more targeted, sector-specific approach to trade policy rather than blanket tariffs,” noted Dr. Evelyn Chen, Senior Asia Economist at Standard Chartered. “This reduces the probability of immediate, disruptive trade measures but introduces longer-term uncertainty about which sectors might face restrictions.” The table below illustrates the immediate impact on major Asian currencies: Currency Change vs USD Key Driver Chinese Yuan (CNY) -0.5% Reduced safe-haven demand Japanese Yen (JPY) -0.8% Dollar strength, yield differentials South Korean Won (KRW) -0.3% Export sector concerns Indian Rupee (INR) -0.4% Oil price movements Australian Dollar Defies Regional Trend with Employment-Driven Surge While most Asian currencies weakened, the Australian dollar demonstrated remarkable strength, climbing 1.2% to reach 0.6820 against the U.S. dollar—its highest level since November 2023. This impressive performance directly resulted from unexpectedly robust employment data released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics earlier in the session. The February 2025 employment report revealed several positive developments: Employment Change: +45,300 jobs added (consensus: +20,000) Unemployment Rate: Steady at 3.9% despite labor force expansion Participation Rate: Increased to 67.2% Full-time Employment: Rose by 38,700 positions These figures significantly exceeded market expectations and reinforced confidence in Australia’s economic resilience. “The employment data demonstrates remarkable labor market tightness,” observed Michael Richardson, Head of Asia-Pacific Macro Strategy at Mizuho Bank. “This strengthens the case for the Reserve Bank of Australia to maintain its current policy stance, supporting currency appreciation.” Diverging Monetary Policy Trajectories Shape Currency Movements The contrasting performances of Asian currencies and the Australian dollar reflect deeper monetary policy divergences across the Asia-Pacific region. While most Asian central banks maintain accommodative stances to support economic growth, the Reserve Bank of Australia faces different considerations due to persistent inflation pressures and labor market strength. Several key factors explain this policy divergence: Inflation Dynamics: Australia’s consumer price index remains above target at 3.4%, while many Asian economies experience more moderate inflation Growth Outlook: Australia benefits from diversified trade relationships and commodity exports External Vulnerabilities: Some Asian economies remain more exposed to global trade fluctuations Fiscal Positions: Varying government debt levels influence monetary policy flexibility These fundamental differences create distinct currency trajectories. Meanwhile, the Australian dollar’s strength against both the U.S. dollar and Asian peers suggests shifting capital flows toward economies with favorable growth-inflation dynamics. Historical Context: Comparing 2025 Trade Policy Environment to Previous Periods The current market reaction to Trump’s trade comments differs significantly from responses during his presidency. In 2018-2019, aggressive tariff announcements typically triggered: Sharp Asian currency depreciation Increased market volatility Safe-haven flows to Japanese yen and Swiss franc Disruptions to regional supply chains By contrast, the 2025 response features more nuanced market behavior. Investors now possess greater experience with trade policy uncertainty and have developed more sophisticated hedging strategies. Additionally, regional economies have implemented structural adjustments since the previous trade tensions, including: Diversified export markets Enhanced domestic consumption Regional trade agreements (RCEP) Improved currency swap arrangements These developments have reduced vulnerability to U.S. trade policy shifts. Consequently, markets now focus more on fundamental economic indicators like Australia’s employment data, which provide clearer signals about underlying economic health. Expert Analysis: Long-Term Implications for Asian Forex Markets Financial institutions have begun assessing the longer-term implications of these developments. According to research from Goldman Sachs, Asian currencies may face continued pressure from several structural factors: Diverging interest rate trajectories between the U.S. and Asia Persistent capital outflows to higher-yielding markets Gradual reduction of pandemic-era stimulus measures Demographic challenges in some regional economies However, analysts also identify potential supportive factors. “Asian central banks have accumulated substantial foreign exchange reserves,” noted Priya Sharma, Chief Investment Officer for Asia at BlackRock. “These reserves provide buffers against excessive currency volatility and enable more measured policy responses to external shocks.” The Australian dollar’s performance offers additional insights. Its strength reflects not only domestic employment data but also broader commodity market dynamics. Australia benefits from its position as a major exporter of: Iron ore (critical for global infrastructure) Natural gas (energy transition fuel) Lithium (battery production) Agricultural products (food security) These export categories align with long-term global economic trends, providing structural support for the currency beyond cyclical employment data. Conclusion Asian currency markets on February 13, 2025, demonstrated the complex interplay between geopolitical developments and economic fundamentals. While Trump’s moderated tariff rhetoric eased immediate trade fears, it paradoxically contributed to Asian currency weakness by reducing safe-haven demand. Conversely, the Australian dollar surged to a fifteen-month high following unexpectedly strong employment data, highlighting the importance of domestic economic indicators in currency valuation. These divergent movements underscore the multifaceted nature of modern forex markets, where political rhetoric, monetary policy, and economic data collectively shape currency trajectories. As 2025 progresses, investors will continue monitoring both trade policy developments and fundamental economic indicators across the Asia-Pacific region. FAQs Q1: Why did Asian currencies weaken despite Trump’s less aggressive tariff comments? A1: Asian currencies weakened because Trump’s conciliatory tone reduced immediate trade war risks, diminishing the safe-haven appeal of some regional currencies. Additionally, the U.S. dollar gained support from revised Federal Reserve interest rate projections, while underlying concerns about regional economic growth persisted. Q2: What specific factors drove the Australian dollar’s strong performance? A2: The Australian dollar surged due to unexpectedly robust employment data showing 45,300 jobs added in February 2025, significantly exceeding consensus estimates. This reinforced confidence in Australia’s labor market strength and reduced expectations of near-term monetary policy easing by the Reserve Bank of Australia. Q3: How does the current market reaction to Trump’s trade comments differ from responses during his presidency? A3: The 2025 reaction is more nuanced than during 2018-2019. Markets now have greater experience with trade policy uncertainty, regional economies have implemented structural adjustments, and investors focus more on fundamental economic indicators alongside political rhetoric. Q4: What long-term factors might support Asian currencies despite current weakness? A4: Long-term supportive factors include substantial foreign exchange reserves accumulated by Asian central banks, diversified export markets through agreements like RCEP, enhanced domestic consumption in regional economies, and improved currency swap arrangements that reduce vulnerability to external shocks. Q5: How might these currency movements impact regional trade and investment flows? A5: Currency movements influence regional trade competitiveness and investment allocations. A weaker Asian currency complex could enhance export competitiveness but increase import costs, while Australian dollar strength might attract capital inflows but potentially challenge some export sectors. These dynamics will shape corporate investment decisions and regional economic integration throughout 2025. This post Asian Currencies Stumble as Trump’s Soothing Tariff Comments Ease Trade Fears; Australian Dollar Soars on Jobs Surge first appeared on BitcoinWorld .
22 Jan 2026, 05:22
The Federal Reserve is expected to keep interest rates unchanged at its January meeting.
The US Federal Reserve is set to hold its key interest rates steady through this quarter and potentially lasting until the Fed chair Jerome Powell completes his term in May. This forecast was based on Polymarket results showing that traders anticipated a 98% likelihood that the Federal Reserve would keep interest rates unchanged at its January meeting, scheduled for January 27-28. Notably, this finding illustrates a significant shift from December’s prediction, when several individuals anticipated at least one reduction by March. Analysts weighed in on the situation. They explained that these recent predictions resulted from the moderate to solid growth currently experienced in the US. Therefore, many believe that economic growth will soon strengthen, reducing the likelihood of immediate cuts, particularly because inflation remains above the Fed’s 2% target. On the other hand, several economists believe that at least two cuts may occur in the coming months. Several individuals anticipate no change in interest rates from the Fed’s decision this January The Federal Reserve faces significant challenges in setting interest rates. Some of these problems include political interference and a split among Fed officials in their outlook for the future, sparking worries among policymakers and the financial markets as a whole. Following this discovery, sources noted that Powell has consistently faced backlash from US President Donald Trump for his overly cautious, slow rate cuts. They also noted that this situation intensified when the Justice Department warned of impending criminal proceedings against Powell regarding a multi-billion-dollar renovation project at the Fed’s headquarters. Reports indicate that Trump’s efforts to terminate Lisa Cook, a Member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors of the United States, from her position are also pending a final Supreme Court ruling. Meanwhile, from January 16-21, a survey was conducted, with results indicating that all 100 economists anticipated the Fed would keep rates steady in a range of 3.50% to 3.75% at its January meeting. Notably, 58% forecasted that this trend will remain unchanged throughout this quarter. Jeremy Schwartz, a senior US economist at Nomura and one of the top forecasters for the US economy according to LSEG StarMine calculations, decided to comment on this survey. Based on his argument, the country’s economic prospects suggest the Fed needs to keep interest rates steady, further indicating the likelihood that the central bank will raise rates later this year or next year. “However,” he added, “we believe that the Fed will hold rates steady for the rest of Powell’s term until May but expect that new leadership could manage to implement another 50 basis points of cuts later this year.” Trump set to announce his preferred choice for the Fed chair position next week During a survey on the Fed’s decision on interest rates, sources noted that individuals were divided on the fate of interest rates beyond this quarter, with only 55 of 100 people involved expecting a rate reduction after Powell’s term. At this time, Scott Bessent, the United States Secretary of the Treasury, asserted that Trump might appoint his preferred choice to replace Powell as the next Fed chair as early as next week. However, Bernard Yaros, the lead US economist at Oxford Economics, noted that, “There will be more resistance than ever regarding who becomes the next chair because of the criminal investigation… I don’t think Trump will manage to appoint people at the Fed who will lower interest rates.” Meanwhile, economic reports indicate that the United States experienced strong economic growth of around 4.3% in the third quarter. This year, growth is predicted to surge by 2.3%, reflecting a rise from the 2.2% recorded in 2025. Moreover, the 2.3% increase was revised up from 2% projected in December and has surpassed the Fed’s forecasted non-inflationary growth rate of 1.8%. Claim your free seat in an exclusive crypto trading community - limited to 1,000 members.
22 Jan 2026, 02:00
Is Bitcoin Selling Off On Quantum Fears? A Reality Check
Bitcoin’s Tuesday slide to $87,895 has revived a familiar market habit: attaching a single, clean narrative to messy positioning, flows, and reflexive price action. This time, the culprit making the rounds is quantum computing, a potentially “existential threat” that’s supposedly explaining Bitcoin’s underperformance versus gold which has printed a new all-time high at $4,888. The quantum angle picked up steam after a post by Nic Carter, a partner at Castle Island Ventures. Carter wrote: “Bitcoin’s “mysterious” underperformance (due to quantum) is the only story that matters this year. The market is speaking the devs aren’t listening,” and shared a tweet about the news that Wall Street strategist Christopher Wood removed a 10% Bitcoin allocation from a model portfolio due to concerns that quantum computing could undermine Bitcoin’s long-term value proposition. Is Bitcoin Falling On Quantum Fears? Not everyone buying the premise is buying the price-action conclusion. Well-known Bitcoin advocate Vijay Boyapati, while acknowledging quantum computing as a real issue, pushed back on using it as the primary explanation for why Bitcoin is stalling and selling off. Related Reading: Bitcoin Whale Panic Fades: Sell Pressure On Binance Falls Off A Cliff “While I agree QC is a legitimate concern… I think the price stalling invites narratives to fill the explanatory void when, imo, the real explanation is really just the unlocking of an enormous supply once we hit a magic number for a lot of whales (100k),” Boyapati wrote. “Prices increasing are like waves hitting a glacier – eventually a chunk of supply breaks off and crashes onto the order books.” Boyapati’s broader point is that market structure can do plenty of damage on its own once a big level triggers distribution and confidence cracks. “Given the path dependent nature and feedback loops involved in a bull run sustained on narratives… the price stalling then causes people to doubt that Bitcoin will continue to go up and this then results in more selling until you get an equilibrium of supply and demand at some lower price point,” he added. “This is what happens during Bitcoin bear markets – and I think we’re in one.” James Check, a prominent Bitcoin on-chain analyst, co-founder of Check on Chain, and former Lead Analyst at Glassnode, largely sided with the view that quantum risk may be a background constraint on some capital, but not the dominant driver of the gold-versus-Bitcoin divergence. Related Reading: Tom Lee Still Sees Bitcoin At $250,000 But Warns 2026 Gets ‘Jagged’ “QC keeps some capital away, but this argument that gold is up and Bitcoin is down because of it just isn’t it,” he wrote. “Gold has a bid because sovereigns are buying it in place of treasuries. The trend has been in place since 2008, and accelerates after Feb-22.” He also highlighted the supply-side pressure Bitcoin has already absorbed. “Bitcoin saw sell-side from HODLers in 2025 which would have killed every prior bull thrice over, and then once more,” Checkmate said. The policy takeaway, in his view, is practical but limited: quantum preparedness matters, but attributing every downturn to it doesn’t help traders understand what’s actually clearing the market. In a short market update posted via Checkmate’s analytics brand Checkonchain, the immediate trigger for the move was described in leverage terms rather than existential risk. Bitcoin “sold back down into the high $80ks,” with “the bears taking a bunch of leveraged long traders out to the woodshed,” the note said, estimating that around $260 million in leveraged long exposure was wiped. Technically, the desk framed the structure as still resembling a bear flag, with a “clear supply air-pocket” between $70,000 and $81,000, language that points to thin bid support if sellers regain control. At press time, BTC traded at $88,890. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
