Invest ideasNews
7 Mar 2026, 07:00
Bitcoin May Hit $180,000 This Year, But Only If This Scenario Plays Out: Amber Data
Bitcoin (BTC) began the week with a sharp rebound that briefly lifted the world’s largest cryptocurrency back toward the $74,000 mark on Wednesday for the first time in more than a month. However, as the week comes to a close, that momentum has faded, with BTC sliding back to roughly $68,260. Even with the choppy price action, on-chain analytics firm Amber Data argues that the broader outlook for Bitcoin remains constructive. In its latest market report, the firm suggests that new all-time highs are still possible this year. Post-Liquidation Reset Amber Data describes Bitcoin as entering 2026 in an unusual position. The market, it says, has been “de-risked” following October’s liquidation event, which they assert flushed out excessive leverage from the market. In the report, they contend that open interest had climbed to “unsustainable levels,” the basis trade had become overcrowded, and funding rates reflected stretched positioning. Related Reading: Bank Resistance Puts 2026 Passage Of Crypto Market Structure Bill In Doubt, Reuters When headlines surrounding President Donald Trump’s tariff policies hit the market, the overleveraged structure was unable to withstand the selling pressure. The result was a cascade of liquidations that wiped out weak hands and reset positioning. While painful, the correction served a purpose. Valuations have since normalized, leverage has been largely cleared from the system, and the Bitcoin market structure appears healthier, Amber Data noted. Yet the recovery remains fragile. Liquidity is still impaired, and the carry trade — once a major driver of activity — is no longer especially attractive. In Amber Data’s view, the market is now structurally sound but lacks a clear catalyst to define its next major move. ‘Muddle Through’ Phase In its base case, which it assigns a 50% probability, Bitcoin trades between $90,000 and $120,000. This outcome envisions extended consolidation until a meaningful macro catalyst emerges. Under this “muddle through” scenario, conditions neither worsen dramatically nor improve significantly. Volatility compresses, enthusiasm cools, and both bullish breakout expectations and bearish collapse predictions are repeatedly frustrated. Early signs supporting this scenario would include basis annual percentage rates recovering to 8–10%, spot Bitcoin ETF inflows turning consistently positive, order book depth returning toward pre-crash conditions, and funding rates stabilizing in positive territory. 25% Chance Bitcoin Breakout To $180,000 Amber Data assigns a 25% probability to a more optimistic outcome, with Bitcoin climbing between $120,000 and $180,000. In this bull case, institutional participation accelerates alongside sovereign adoption, creating a feedback loop of expanding flows. Early confirmation signals would include weekly Bitcoin ETF inflows exceeding $1 billion, basis rates expanding beyond 15% as leverage demand surges, and new accumulation cohorts appearing in HODL wave data, indicating fresh capital entering at scale. Bear Case Targets $60,000 On the downside, Amber Data assigns a 20% probability to a bearish scenario in which Bitcoin trades between $60,000 and $80,000. This would occur if macroeconomic conditions deteriorate more sharply than currently expected and global markets shift decisively into risk-off mode. Warning signs would include sustained ETF outflows exceeding $1 billion per week, basis yields collapsing below 3%, widespread stablecoin redemptions signaling capital flight, and a potential test of the $80,000 ETF cost basis level. Related Reading: XRP Faces High Risk Of Breakdown Below $1.30, Expert Flags Bitcoin As Main Threat Finally, the firm outlines a 5% probability “volatility and chop” scenario, in which Bitcoin trades between $75,000 and $110,000 with no sustained directional trend. Indicators would include sharply fluctuating funding rates, repeated spikes and collapses in open interest as positions are liquidated on both sides, and inconsistent ETF flows alternating between inflows and outflows without a clear pattern. Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com
7 Mar 2026, 06:25
Spot Gold in Dubai Plummets: $30 Discount Reveals Critical Logistics Crisis
BitcoinWorld Spot Gold in Dubai Plummets: $30 Discount Reveals Critical Logistics Crisis DUBAI, UAE – A significant $30 per ounce discount on spot gold in Dubai has exposed severe fractures in the global precious metals supply chain, according to a report from the Chinese financial news agency Cailian Press. This unprecedented price dislocation stems directly from a logistics paralysis triggered by escalating military conflict in the Middle East. Consequently, the city’s status as a premier hub for gold refining and trade now faces immediate strain. While the global benchmark gold price hovers above $5,000, its rally has stalled this week, pressured by a resurgent U.S. dollar and broader geopolitical uncertainty. Spot Gold in Dubai Faces Unprecedented Discount The emergence of a $30 discount for physical gold in Dubai marks a dramatic departure from typical market premiums. Normally, major trading hubs command a small premium over the London fix to cover refining, certification, and immediate availability. However, current conditions have inverted this logic completely. The primary driver is a near-complete breakdown in regional logistics networks. Military actions, including ongoing U.S. and Israeli strikes, have severely disrupted air and sea routes critical for moving bullion. Furthermore, insurance underwriters have sharply increased premiums for cargo traversing the region. Storage facilities within Dubai are also reportedly nearing capacity as outbound shipments stall. This confluence of factors has created a localized glut of physical metal that cannot reach its intended destinations. Anatomy of a Logistics Paralysis The conflict’s impact on supply chains is multifaceted and profound. Key transport corridors through the Persian Gulf and surrounding airspace are experiencing significant delays and heightened security protocols. Major shipping lines are rerouting vessels, adding weeks to delivery times and skyrocketing freight costs. For gold, a high-value, dense commodity, these disruptions are particularly acute. The cost of secure armored transport has escalated in parallel. Additionally, secure vaulting space in transit zones is becoming scarce and more expensive. Market analysts note that these rising local costs for transportation, insurance, and storage are not just a Dubai issue. They are fueling legitimate concerns over impending physical supply shortages in major gold-importing nations like India and China, which rely on Dubai-refined metal. Expert Analysis on Market Mechanics Commodities experts explain that the spot price divergence highlights the difference between paper and physical markets. The global benchmark price, set in futures trading, reflects macroeconomic sentiment, dollar strength, and investment flows. In contrast, local physical prices are dictated by immediate supply and demand logistics. The current disconnect shows that while investors may be buying gold ETFs, the actual metal cannot move efficiently. This creates arbitrage opportunities in theory, but in practice, the cost and risk of executing them are prohibitive. Historical data shows similar dislocations during periods of extreme stress, such as the initial COVID-19 lockdowns, but rarely of this magnitude in a core refining hub. The Ripple Effects on Global Gold Trade Dubai is not just a market; it is a central node in the global gold ecosystem. The emirate imports doré bars from Africa and other mining regions, refines them to the high-purity London Good Delivery standard, and then re-exports the finished bars. This paralysis therefore disrupts the entire chain. Mines may struggle to sell their output. Refineries could face operational slowdowns. Ultimately, end-users, from central banks to jewelry manufacturers, may encounter delays and higher final costs. The strong U.S. dollar, which makes dollar-priced gold more expensive for other currencies, is compounding the demand-side pressure. This dual shock of high dollar prices and physical unavailability presents a unique challenge for the market. Comparative Impact on Other Assets This event also underscores gold’s dual role as both a financial asset and a physical commodity. While gold ETFs and futures can be traded digitally, industrial and jewelry demand requires the metal itself. The table below contrasts the current behavior of different gold instruments: Instrument Price Driver Current Status Gold Futures (COMEX) Macro sentiment, USD, rates Stalled near $5,000/oz Dubai Physical Spot Local logistics, supply glut Trading at a $30 discount Gold ETFs (e.g., GLD) Investment flows Tracking futures price closely Indian Physical Premium Local demand, import delays Expected to rise sharply The situation reveals a market under stress. Key points of concern for traders and analysts include: Supply Chain Vulnerability: The event highlights over-reliance on specific geographic chokepoints. Cost Inflation: Soaring insurance and freight costs will be passed through the chain. Market Segmentation: The gap between paper and physical markets can lead to volatility. Historical Context and Future Trajectory Regional conflicts have disrupted commodity flows before, but the scale of Dubai’s discount is notable. Past incidents, like tensions in the Strait of Hormuz, caused brief premia, not sustained discounts. This indicates the current blockage is more severe. The timeline of the crisis is crucial. Initial shipping delays began several weeks ago, escalating with recent military strikes. The market now watches for signs of resolution or further escalation. A prolonged disruption could trigger a structural shift, with buyers seeking alternative refining hubs in Singapore or Switzerland, though building that capacity takes time. For now, the market remains in a holding pattern, weighing geopolitical headlines against hard logistics data. Conclusion The $30 discount on spot gold in Dubai serves as a stark, real-time indicator of how geopolitical conflict translates into tangible economic disruption. It transcends a simple price anomaly, revealing critical vulnerabilities in the global movement of high-value physical assets. The situation underscores that even a safe-haven asset like gold is not immune to logistics paralysis. While the broader gold price contends with a strong dollar, the physical market in a key hub is sending a distinct distress signal. The resolution of this spot gold discount in Dubai will depend heavily on de-escalation in the region and the restoration of reliable transport corridors. FAQs Q1: Why is gold cheaper in Dubai right now? The discount is due to a physical oversupply in Dubai caused by severe logistics paralysis. Gold cannot be shipped out efficiently due to regional conflict, rising insurance costs, and transport delays, creating a local glut. Q2: Does this mean gold is losing its safe-haven status? Not necessarily. The global benchmark price remains high, reflecting its safe-haven demand. The Dubai discount is a specific physical supply chain issue, not a reflection of falling investment demand for gold as an asset class. Q3: How does this affect gold prices in other countries like India? It could lead to higher prices and shortages. India imports significant refined gold from Dubai. If shipments are delayed, Indian buyers may face supply shortages, potentially driving up local premiums despite the discount at the source. Q4: What are the main causes of the logistics problems? The primary causes are ongoing military strikes in the region disrupting air and sea routes, massively increased insurance premiums for cargo, limited secure vault space, and soaring costs for armored transport. Q5: How long might this discount last? The duration is directly tied to geopolitical developments. The discount will likely persist as long as the current level of conflict and associated transport risks remain elevated. A ceasefire or de-escalation would be needed to restart normal trade flows. This post Spot Gold in Dubai Plummets: $30 Discount Reveals Critical Logistics Crisis first appeared on BitcoinWorld .
7 Mar 2026, 05:00
Bitcoin Could Outshine Gold Through 2029, Macroeconomist Predicts
The gap between how investors feel about gold and Bitcoin has rarely been this wide. Gold’s fear and greed index sat at 72 out of 100 — deep in greed territory — while the top crypto’s equivalent reading hit 18 out of 100, a level classified as extreme fear. For macroeconomist Lyn Alden, that gap tells a story worth paying attention to. A Contrarian Bet On Bitcoin’s Next Two To Three Years Alden, speaking on the New Era Finance podcast this week, said that if she had to choose between the two assets for the period ahead, she’d pick Bitcoin . “Gun to my head, if I had to say which one I think outperforms, I would say Bitcoin,” she said. Gold has climbed hard. Bitcoin has fallen far. She sees a pendulum between the two, and right now it has swung well in gold’s favor. That, she argued, sets up a potential reversal. Gold reached a record high of around $5,608 per ounce in January. Bitcoin, by contrast, is sitting roughly 44% below its own peak of $126,000, reached last October. The divergence in price performance mirrors the divergence in investor mood. Alden acknowledged gold’s run but stopped short of calling it a bubble. Sentiment around it is “somewhat euphoric,” she said, while the mood around Bitcoin has turned what she described as unfairly negative. She was careful not to overclaim. Both assets can rise at the same time. Both can fall. She does not treat the relationship between them as fixed or predictable with certainty. But pressed to make a call, she made one. Gold’s Strength Could Be Bitcoin’s Opportunity The backdrop to Alden’s comments is a broader debate about which asset deserves the title of reliable store of value. Billionaire investor Ray Dalio has come down firmly on gold’s side. Speaking publicly this week, Dalio described gold as the most established form of money and pointed to its standing as the second-largest reserve asset held by central banks worldwide. He raised concerns about Bitcoin’s limitations around privacy and its vulnerability to quantum computing advances — a technological threat that remains years away but is drawing increasing attention as construction begins on large-scale quantum facilities. I think Bitcoin could reach $1M by ~2030 based on current conditions and progress. Think long-term. pic.twitter.com/6MKqrjojAP — Brian Armstrong (@brian_armstrong) September 24, 2025 Dalio’s position and Alden’s are not entirely at odds. Neither dismissed either asset outright. The question is about which performs better over a defined window, not which survives long-term. Related Reading: Stablecoins Pose Fresh Risk To Eurozone Lending, ECB Says
7 Mar 2026, 04:00
From Ban Threats To Bank Licenses: Russia’s New Crypto Play
The Bank of Russia has proposed letting banks and brokerage firms obtain licenses to operate crypto exchanges. A New Crypto Play A report published by Interfax on March 5 states that The Central Bank of Russia (CBR) Governor Elvira Nabiullina has proposed to allow banks and brokers to obtain crypto exchange licenses via a notification process, as based on their current licenses. This statement was made at the annual meeting of lending institutions with the Central Bank. According to Nabiullina, the proposal aims to leverage the banking sector’s infrastructure for fighting money laundering and countering the financing of terrorism and fraud in order to better protect digital assets market clients. In what appears to be a conciliatory move between regulators and digital asset’s traders, Nabiullina directly addresses some of the main concerns typically raised by TradFi when arguing against crypto assets: We hope that your extensive banking experience in AML/CFT [anti-money laundering and countering the financing of terrorism], as well as your experience in countering fraud, will help protect your clients in the crypto market once it is legalized. The Crypto Proposal The exchange permissions being notification‑based means that institutions could bolt cryptocurrency services onto existing financial licenses instead of going through a separate, standalone approval process. Under the draft rules, crypto and stablecoins would be treated as “currency valuables”: Russians could own and trade them but using them as a domestic means of payment would remain restricted. Regarding the risk level, Naibullina remain cautious. She clarified that there would be a temporary threshold for banks’ involvement in the asset class: However, we would still like to limit the level of risk a bank takes in this area to one percent of capital. Let’s start by seeing how banks operate within the one percent cap, and then see whether we need to move forward. According to the Interfax report, qualified investors may acquire crypto assets without restrictions, while non-qualified investors are limited to purchasing up to 300,000 rubles per year through a single intermediary. The proposal effectively turns banks into the primary regulated gateways for digital asset trading. Russia’s Back-And-Forth Since 2020, Russia has recognized digital assets as property but banned them as a means of payment. Russia flirted with a full ban in 2022 and then shifted to “regulate, don’t ban.” By 2024–2025 , Russia allowed limited cross‑border use, legalized mining, and opened the market only to banks and “super qualified” investors, keeping retail, P2P, and foreign platforms in a gray zone. A Change In The Tide Russia has slowly but surely moved from hostility to tightly managed acceptance: the new push to license banks and brokers as cryptocurrency intermediaries is about pulling activity onshore, taxing it, preserving capital controls, and sidelining unlicensed foreign exchanges rather than outlawing crypto itself. The central bank is pushing to finish the broader legal framework by mid‑2026, after which penalties for unlicensed intermediaries and offshore platforms that do not localize in Russia are expected to kick in. Cover image from ChatGPT, BTCUSD chart from Tradingview
7 Mar 2026, 00:40
Bitcoin’s Inevitable Triumph: Saylor Predicts Digital Currency Will Replace Legacy Finance Through Survival of the Fittest
BitcoinWorld Bitcoin’s Inevitable Triumph: Saylor Predicts Digital Currency Will Replace Legacy Finance Through Survival of the Fittest In a recent interview that has sparked significant discussion across financial and technological circles, MicroStrategy co-founder Michael Saylor made a bold prediction about the future of global finance. He argued that Bitcoin will inevitably replace the existing financial system through what he describes as a Darwinian process of survival of the fittest. This perspective comes at a pivotal moment when digital assets are increasingly intersecting with traditional financial infrastructure. Bitcoin as the Standard-Bearer for Financial Evolution Michael Saylor, whose company holds approximately 226,331 Bitcoin worth billions of dollars, described the cryptocurrency as the standard-bearer for what he terms the digital financial revolution. During his interview, he presented a compelling comparison between traditional financial markets and Bitcoin’s operational framework. Traditional systems, he noted, operate within constrained hours, observe numerous holidays, and face significant regulatory barriers across jurisdictions. Conversely, Bitcoin functions as a global network operating continuously without interruption. The cryptocurrency facilitates value transfer across borders 24 hours a day, seven days a week. Saylor emphasized that this constant availability represents a fundamental evolutionary advantage in an increasingly interconnected world economy. The Technical Superiority of Digital Capital Saylor’s argument centers on what he identifies as technical and operational superiority. He stated that money will eventually move at the speed of light, a capability he believes traditional systems cannot match efficiently. The Bitcoin network, with its decentralized architecture and cryptographic security, enables value transfer with significantly lower costs compared to conventional banking and financial transfer systems. Industry analysts have documented the growing efficiency of cryptocurrency transactions. According to blockchain data providers, the average Bitcoin transaction fee has decreased substantially during periods of network optimization, while settlement times remain consistently faster than many traditional international transfers. Comparative Analysis of Financial Systems The table below illustrates key operational differences between traditional finance and Bitcoin: Feature Traditional Finance Bitcoin Network Operating Hours Market hours with closures 24/7 continuous operation Cross-Border Settlement 1-5 business days typically 10 minutes to 1 hour average Global Accessibility Geographic restrictions apply Permissionless global access Transaction Costs Varies by service and amount Network-determined fees Financial technology experts note that these technical differences have practical implications. For instance, businesses operating internationally face challenges with traditional banking hours across time zones. Additionally, compliance requirements create friction in cross-border transactions that decentralized networks potentially reduce. The Darwinian Framework for Financial Systems Saylor’s use of Darwinian theory applies evolutionary principles to financial technology development. In biological evolution, organisms best adapted to their environment tend to survive and reproduce. Similarly, Saylor suggests that financial systems demonstrating superior efficiency, accessibility, and resilience will naturally prevail in the competitive landscape of global finance. Historical precedents exist for such technological displacement in finance. The transition from physical gold to paper currency, then to digital banking, demonstrates how monetary systems evolve toward greater efficiency. Each transition reduced friction in value storage and transfer, much as cryptocurrency advocates claim digital assets do today. Several factors contribute to this evolutionary pressure: Globalization: Increasing international trade requires efficient cross-border settlement Digitalization: Economic activities migrate to digital platforms needing native financial systems Financial Inclusion: Billions remain underserved by traditional banking infrastructure Security Advances: Cryptographic techniques offer new approaches to financial security Real-World Context and Current Developments The discussion about Bitcoin replacing legacy systems occurs alongside significant institutional adoption. Major financial institutions, including BlackRock and Fidelity, have launched Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs). These products bridge traditional investment vehicles with cryptocurrency exposure, potentially accelerating integration between systems. Furthermore, several countries have adopted Bitcoin as legal tender or are developing central bank digital currencies (CBDCs). These developments suggest that digital currency concepts are gaining formal recognition within existing financial frameworks rather than operating entirely outside them. Regulatory developments also shape this evolutionary landscape. The European Union’s Markets in Crypto-Assets (MiCA) regulation establishes comprehensive rules for cryptocurrency markets. Similarly, the United States is developing clearer regulatory frameworks through legislative proposals and agency guidance. Expert Perspectives on Financial Evolution Financial historians note that monetary systems have undergone multiple transformations throughout human history. The move from commodity money to representative money to fiat currency represents previous evolutionary steps. Some economists suggest digital assets might represent the next phase in this progression, though debate continues about which specific technologies will prevail. Technology analysts emphasize that network effects play a crucial role in such transitions. Bitcoin’s first-mover advantage, brand recognition, and substantial network security contribute to its position in discussions about financial system evolution. However, other cryptocurrencies and blockchain networks also compete in this space with different technical approaches and use cases. Potential Impacts on Global Financial Infrastructure The transition Saylor describes would have profound implications for financial systems worldwide. Traditional banking functions like clearing, settlement, and custody might undergo fundamental changes. Payment systems could become more efficient but might also face disintermediation challenges. Monetary policy implementation might require adaptation if digital currencies gain substantial adoption. Central banks worldwide are researching how digital assets affect their ability to manage inflation, employment, and economic stability. International organizations like the International Monetary Fund and Bank for International Settlements are studying these implications extensively. For consumers and businesses, potential benefits include: Reduced transaction costs for cross-border payments Increased financial access for unbanked populations Enhanced transparency in financial transactions Greater individual control over financial assets Potential challenges also exist, including: Regulatory compliance across jurisdictions Price volatility management Cybersecurity considerations Technological literacy requirements Conclusion Michael Saylor’s prediction that Bitcoin will replace legacy finance through survival of the fittest presents a compelling vision of financial system evolution. His argument emphasizes technical superiority, operational efficiency, and adaptive advantages as drivers of this potential transition. While the complete replacement of existing systems remains speculative, the growing integration of cryptocurrency concepts into mainstream finance suggests evolutionary pressures are indeed reshaping the financial landscape. The ongoing dialogue between traditional institutions and emerging technologies will likely determine the pace and nature of any such transformation, with Bitcoin positioned as a significant participant in this Darwinian process of financial evolution. FAQs Q1: What exactly did Michael Saylor predict about Bitcoin and legacy finance? Michael Saylor predicted that Bitcoin will eventually replace the existing financial system through a process he compares to Darwinian survival of the fittest. He argues that Bitcoin’s technical advantages—including 24/7 global operation, lower transaction costs, and the ability to move value at digital speeds—will make it prevail over slower, more constrained traditional financial systems. Q2: How does Bitcoin’s operational model differ from traditional finance? Bitcoin operates as a decentralized global network available 24/7 without holidays or geographic restrictions. Traditional financial markets have specific trading hours, observe national holidays, and face regulatory barriers between jurisdictions. Bitcoin transactions typically settle faster than many international bank transfers, especially across borders. Q3: What does “money moving at the speed of light” mean in practical terms? This phrase refers to the near-instantaneous settlement capability of digital currencies compared to traditional systems. While not literally at light speed, Bitcoin transactions can confirm within minutes globally, whereas international bank transfers often require multiple business days due to intermediary banks, time zones, and compliance checks. Q4: Are there real-world examples of financial systems evolving in this way? Yes, financial systems have evolved throughout history from commodity money (like gold) to representative money (paper backed by commodities) to fiat currency (government-issued without commodity backing). Each transition increased efficiency and reduced friction. The potential move toward digital assets represents a possible next phase in this evolutionary progression. Q5: What are the main challenges to Bitcoin replacing legacy finance? Significant challenges include regulatory frameworks that vary globally, price volatility that complicates its use as a stable medium of exchange, scalability limitations during high network demand, energy consumption concerns, and the need for broader technological adoption and understanding among the general population and institutions. This post Bitcoin’s Inevitable Triumph: Saylor Predicts Digital Currency Will Replace Legacy Finance Through Survival of the Fittest first appeared on BitcoinWorld .
6 Mar 2026, 23:17
Oil has rallied by the most in history this week as US stocks crash the most in a year
Oil went crazy this week. That is the story. U.S. crude posted the biggest weekly gain in the history of its futures contract, while U.S. stocks dropped hard as traders dealt with war risk, weaker jobs data, and a growing threat to global fuel supply. By Friday, West Texas Intermediate closed at $90.90 a barrel after rising 12.21%, or $9.89, in one session. Brent crude settled at $92.69 after climbing 8.52%, or $7.28. For the week, U.S. crude soared 35.63%, the biggest weekly gain since the contract began trading in 1983. Brent jumped about 28%, its biggest weekly gain since April 2020. The reason was simple and ugly. The war between the United States and Iran entered its seventh day on Friday, and the fight has already hit one of the most important shipping lanes in the world. Traffic in the Strait of Hormuz nearly stopped, raising fears that a wider supply shock could slam the oil and gas market. America’s Donald Trump raised those fears further on Friday when he demanded unconditional surrender from Iran. That pushed traders to price in a longer conflict, more shipping trouble, and more lost barrels from the Gulf. War disrupts Gulf supply and drives oil to a record weekly gain The supply problems did not stop at shipping delays. Saad al-Kaabi, Qatar’s energy minister, told the Financial Times on Friday that crude could reach $150 a barrel in the coming weeks if tankers cannot pass through the Strait. Saad said, “This could bring down the economies of the world.” He also warned that exporters in the Gulf may soon have no real choice but to declare force majeure if the disruption keeps going. Saad told the paper, “Everybody that has not called for force majeure we expect will do so in the next few days that this continues.” He added, “All exporters in the Gulf region will have to call force majeure. If they don’t, they are at some point going to pay the liability for that legally, and that’s their choice.” Washington tried to step in, but the market did not calm down. The Trump administration announced a $20 billion insurance program for oil tankers in the Persian Gulf on Friday. Traders still kept buying crude , thanks to real supply losses were already showing up. Two Iraqi officials told Reuters on Tuesday that Iraq shut down 1.5 million barrels per day of production. The Wall Street Journal reported Friday that Kuwait also started cutting production after it ran out of storage space. The war language stayed hard as well.At a Thursday press conference, U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said the U.S. had “only just begun to fight.” Pete also told reporters, “Iran is hoping that we cannot sustain this, which is a really bad miscalculation.” Stocks fall as weak jobs data and higher energy prices hit traders at once Stocks had a rough Friday and an even rougher week. oil was flying, but equities were sinking. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 453.19 points, or 0.95%, to close at 47,501.55. Earlier in the day, the Dow was down nearly 950 points, or almost 2%. The S&P 500 lost 1.33% and ended at 6,740.02. The Nasdaq Composite dropped 1.59% to 22,387.68. At their lowest points of the day, the S&P 500 was down 1.7% and the Nasdaq was down 1.9%. The labor report made the selling worse. The Bureau of Labor Statistics said nonfarm payrolls fell by 92,000 in February. That was a sharp break from the revised January gain of 126,000. It was also far below the 50,000 increase expected by economists polled by Dow Jones. The unemployment rate rose to 4.4% from 4.3%. So traders had two problems at the same time: a war that pushed oil higher and jobs data that showed the labor market weakening. The U.S. dollar index also headed for its best week since August. The gauge, which tracks the greenback against a basket of currencies, rose 1.4% since Monday. It was on track for its biggest one-week gain since the week ended Aug. 1, when it rose more than 1.5%. Other markets were busy too. Gold ended Friday up 1.58% at 5,158.7, but it still fell 1.7% for the week. That was its first weekly loss in five weeks. Silver gained 2.59% on Friday to close at 84.311, yet it lost 9.63% for the week, its first weekly drop in four weeks. Aluminum climbed 9.75% during the week, its biggest weekly gain since January 2023, and it is now up nearly 15% in 2026. Drivers felt the pressure too. The average price for a gallon of regular gasoline rose nearly 27 cents in the last week through Thursday to $3.25, based on data from AAA. That is what happens when war hits supply, oil jumps, and the rest of the market starts scrambling at the same time. If you're reading this, you’re already ahead. Stay there with our newsletter .
