hodler

21 Jan 2026, 13:32

Central banks vs. Bitcoin: Who deserves the public’s trust?

At the World Economic Forum in Davos, the French central bank governor and Coinbase CEO clashed over whether trust in money comes from institutions or decentralized Bitcoin.

21 Jan 2026, 13:22

Blockchain technology can accelerate global GDP growth, Citizens says

The bank said the technology is shifting from experimentation to real-world deployment, with implications for capital markets, governments and global GDP.

21 Jan 2026, 12:30

USD/TWD Forecast: UBS Reveals Why Taiwan’s Regulatory Shifts Won’t Spark Currency Surge

BitcoinWorld USD/TWD Forecast: UBS Reveals Why Taiwan’s Regulatory Shifts Won’t Spark Currency Surge TAIPEI, TAIWAN – March 2025: Financial markets closely monitor Taiwan’s evolving regulatory landscape, yet UBS analysts deliver a crucial insight – these policy adjustments appear unlikely to trigger a sustained uptrend in the USD/TWD exchange rate. This comprehensive analysis examines the underlying economic fundamentals that continue to anchor the Taiwan dollar’s stability despite shifting regulatory winds. USD/TWD Stability Amid Regulatory Evolution UBS Global Research published its latest assessment this week, indicating Taiwan’s regulatory modifications will probably not drive significant USD/TWD appreciation. The Swiss financial giant bases this conclusion on multiple structural factors supporting Taiwan’s economic resilience. Furthermore, the island’s robust export sector and substantial foreign exchange reserves provide substantial buffers against currency volatility. Taiwan’s central bank maintains a consistent approach to currency management, prioritizing stability over aggressive intervention. This policy framework creates predictable conditions for international investors and trading partners. Consequently, short-term regulatory adjustments rarely translate into lasting currency movements without accompanying shifts in core economic indicators. Analyzing Taiwan’s Regulatory Environment Recent months witnessed several regulatory developments across Taiwan’s financial and technology sectors. These changes include updated fintech guidelines, enhanced cross-border transaction monitoring, and revised foreign investment protocols. However, UBS economists emphasize that these adjustments represent evolutionary rather than revolutionary transformations. The regulatory modifications primarily aim to modernize existing frameworks rather than fundamentally alter Taiwan’s economic direction. This measured approach minimizes disruptive impacts on currency markets. Additionally, Taiwan’s regulators consistently coordinate with major trading partners to ensure policy alignment, reducing unexpected cross-border financial effects. Expert Perspective from UBS Economists UBS analysts highlight Taiwan’s strong macroeconomic fundamentals as the primary currency stabilizer. The research note specifically references Taiwan’s persistent current account surplus, which reached approximately $90 billion in 2024. This surplus creates natural support for the Taiwan dollar by generating consistent foreign currency inflows. The analysis also notes Taiwan’s inflation remains well-contained compared to many developed economies, with core inflation averaging 2.1% through early 2025. This price stability reduces pressure on the central bank to implement aggressive monetary policies that might weaken the currency. Moreover, Taiwan’s semiconductor and electronics exports continue demonstrating remarkable resilience despite global demand fluctuations. Comparative Currency Analysis in Asian Markets UBS places Taiwan’s currency situation within broader regional context. The table below illustrates key differences between Taiwan and neighboring economies regarding regulatory impacts on currencies: Economy Regulatory Change Impact Currency Volatility Central Bank Response Taiwan Low to Moderate Below Regional Average Gradual and Predictable South Korea Moderate Moderate Sometimes Interventionist Japan High Moderate to High Highly Active Singapore Low Very Low Basket-Based Management This comparative perspective reveals Taiwan occupies a unique position with its balanced approach. The island’s regulatory framework evolves gradually while maintaining strong institutional continuity. Consequently, currency traders typically price regulatory developments efficiently without creating sustained momentum shifts. Structural Factors Supporting TWD Stability Multiple structural elements contribute to the Taiwan dollar’s resilience against regulatory changes. First, Taiwan maintains one of the world’s largest foreign exchange reserves, exceeding $560 billion as of February 2025. This substantial buffer enables the central bank to smooth volatility without resorting to drastic measures. Second, Taiwan’s export composition provides natural currency support. The island specializes in high-value technology products with relatively inelastic demand. Major export categories include: Semiconductors : Taiwan produces over 60% of global advanced chips Electronic Components : Critical inputs for global supply chains Precision Machinery : High-margin manufacturing equipment Information Technology : Servers, networking gear, and storage systems Third, Taiwan’s corporate sector maintains conservative financial practices with limited foreign currency debt exposure. This reduces vulnerability to sudden exchange rate movements that sometimes follow regulatory changes in other economies. Historical Precedents and Current Context UBS researchers examined Taiwan’s regulatory history since 2010, identifying fourteen significant policy adjustments during this period. The analysis reveals only three instances produced measurable USD/TWD movements exceeding 2%, with all corrections occurring within six trading weeks. This historical pattern suggests markets efficiently incorporate regulatory information without generating prolonged trends. The current global economic context further supports currency stability. Global central banks generally maintain cautious monetary policies as inflation gradually moderates worldwide. This synchronized approach reduces disruptive capital flows that sometimes amplify regulatory impacts on emerging market currencies. Future Outlook and Monitoring Points While UBS anticipates limited USD/TWD impact from current regulatory shifts, analysts identify several monitoring points for 2025-2026. First, Taiwan’s presidential administration continues implementing its digital transformation agenda, potentially introducing additional fintech regulations. Second, cross-strait economic relations warrant observation, though current patterns show remarkable stability. Third, global semiconductor demand cycles could influence currency dynamics more substantially than domestic regulations. Fourth, major central bank policies, particularly the Federal Reserve’s interest rate trajectory, will likely affect USD/TWD more significantly than Taiwan’s regulatory environment. Finally, Taiwan’s demographic transition toward an aging society may eventually influence long-term currency fundamentals. Conclusion UBS delivers a clear assessment regarding USD/TWD dynamics – Taiwan’s regulatory evolution appears unlikely to drive sustained currency appreciation against the US dollar. This conclusion rests upon Taiwan’s strong economic fundamentals, substantial foreign exchange reserves, and measured policy implementation. The USD/TWD exchange rate will probably continue reflecting global monetary conditions and semiconductor demand cycles more than domestic regulatory adjustments. Market participants should therefore focus on these broader factors when formulating currency strategies involving the Taiwan dollar. FAQs Q1: What specific regulatory changes is Taiwan implementing? Taiwan recently updated fintech regulations, enhanced cross-border transaction monitoring systems, and revised certain foreign investment procedures. These changes aim to modernize financial infrastructure while maintaining economic stability. Q2: Why does UBS believe these changes won’t affect USD/TWD significantly? UBS analysts point to Taiwan’s strong economic fundamentals, including large foreign exchange reserves, consistent current account surpluses, and stable inflation. These factors outweigh regulatory impacts on currency valuation. Q3: What factors influence USD/TWD more than Taiwan’s regulations? Global semiconductor demand cycles, US Federal Reserve policies, cross-strait economic relations, and broader Asian currency movements typically exert greater influence on USD/TWD than Taiwan’s domestic regulatory adjustments. Q4: How does Taiwan’s central bank typically respond to currency volatility? The Central Bank of the Republic of China (Taiwan) generally employs gradual, predictable interventions to smooth excessive volatility while allowing market forces to determine the exchange rate’s fundamental direction. Q5: What should investors monitor regarding Taiwan’s currency outlook? Investors should watch global semiconductor demand indicators, US interest rate decisions, Taiwan’s export performance data, and any significant changes in cross-strait economic engagement patterns. This post USD/TWD Forecast: UBS Reveals Why Taiwan’s Regulatory Shifts Won’t Spark Currency Surge first appeared on BitcoinWorld .

21 Jan 2026, 12:10

Scott Bessent dismisses Denmark’s $100 million Treasury selloff as irrelevant

U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent looked dead at the cameras today and said, “Denmark’s investment in U.S. Treasury bonds, like Denmark itself, is irrelevant.” Scott is of course in Davos and was asked about AkademikerPension, a Danish pension fund, dumping $100 million worth of Treasurys. His answer made it clear he couldn’t care less. This happened as markets were already going haywire. President Donald Trump, now in his second term, had just threatened tariffs on eight European countries. He said 10% duties would start February 1, and could rise to 25%. His reason? Europe won’t back off Greenland . Stocks dropped, bond prices fell, and yields spiked. Everyone scrambled. And then Denmark made its little bond sale. Bessent downplays Europe’s bond threats and hits Deutsche Bank AkademikerPension’s chief investor, Anders Schelde, said they sold the Treasurys because of “poor government finances” in the U.S. But Scott wasn’t having it.“That is less than $100 million,” he said. “They’ve been selling Treasuries for years. I’m not concerned at all.” Scott reminded reporters that the U.S. is still seeing “record foreign investment” in its Treasurys. He also pointed to Japan’s snap election. That news triggered a bond sell-off in Tokyo, and Scott said that “spilled over to other markets,” possibly explaining some of the panic selling outside the U.S. too. As for the theory that European governments might start dumping U.S. assets , Scott had a name: Deutsche Bank. “The notion that Europeans would be selling U.S. assets came from a single analyst at Deutsche Bank,” he said, adding that “the fake news media” made it sound bigger than it is. That analyst was George Saravelos, head of FX research at the bank. His January 18 note warned that the U.S. has one big weakness: “it relies on others to pay its bills via large external deficits.” He wrote that European governments had $8 trillion in U.S. bonds and stocks. His point was that if Europe’s faith in U.S. stability broke, they could start pulling money fast. Saravelos also mentioned that Danish funds were “one of the first” to cut back on dollar exposure last year. With the way things have gone over the last few days, he said the chances of more of that happening are “high.” But Scott had more ammo. He said Deutsche Bank’s CEO called him personally and said the firm didn’t stand by that research. Trump’s Greenland tariffs, security push spark global reaction This whole thing is about Greenland. Trump wants it. Europe doesn’t. And Denmark technically owns it.“We are asking our allies to understand that Greenland needs to be part of the United States,” Scott said. The Arctic is warming. Russia and China are circling. New trade routes are opening. Trump wants to stop them. But Greenlanders aren’t thrilled. Their business minister, Naaja Nathanielsen, told CNBC they are “bewildered” by Trump’s push. “We have always considered ourselves as an ally of the U.S. and have tried to accommodate the needs from the U.S. over the years and done so happily,” she said. She added that Trump’s actions feel like “acquiring us like a product or a property.” She didn’t stop there. She mentioned actual “threats of military action and an occupation of our country.” Leaders on the island say Greenland is open for business, but it’s not for sale. Scott brought up history. He said the U.S. had already bought the Virgin Islands from Denmark during the First World War because they “understood” their value. He also said this is about America’s position in the world. “President Trump has made it clear that we will not outsource our national security or our hemispheric security to any other countries,” he said. Then he called out the U.K. “Our partner, the U.K., is letting us down with the base on Diego Garcia,” he said. “They want to turn it over to Mauritius.” That, he said, is proof that America needs to act alone. He ended with this: “Take a deep breath. Do not have this reflexive anger we’ve seen. Why don’t they sit down and wait for President Trump to get here and listen to his argument, because I think they are going to be persuaded.” Join a premium crypto trading community free for 30 days - normally $100/mo.

21 Jan 2026, 12:01

Legendary Trader Peter Brandt: Bitcoin Hater Peter Schiff Winning For Now

Peter Brandt admits Bitcoin is losing to gold thus far, and gold bug Schiff is rubbing his hands.

21 Jan 2026, 11:52

Bitcoin Advocate Urges Federal Reserve to Add BTC to Stress Tests

Pierre Rochard, CEO of The Bitcoin Bond Company, has formally requested that the Federal Reserve include Bitcoin as an explicit variable in its 2026 supervisory stress tests, arguing the asset’s extreme volatility and growing institutional adoption warrant standalone treatment in banking risk assessments. The letter , submitted January 20 to the Federal Reserve Board, challenges the practice of grouping Bitcoin with other cryptocurrencies and proposes quantitative calibration based on the asset’s historical behavior dating back to 2015. Rochard’s submission arrives as the US government navigates conflicting policies on Bitcoin holdings, amid recent confusion over whether forfeited assets from the Samourai Wallet case violated Executive Order 14233, which requires seized Bitcoin to be transferred to the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve rather than liquidated. However, the Department of Justice later confirmed , through White House crypto advisor Patrick Witt, that the 57.5 BTC had “ not been liquidated and will not be liquidated, ” resolving speculation after blockchain analysts flagged a November transfer to a Coinbase Prime address. It is in the United States national interest to become the Bitcoin Superpower. To that end, the Federal Reserve should begin integrating bitcoin into its stress tests and scenarios. I've sent in a comment letter explaining what I believe to be reasonable path forward. ( 1/3) pic.twitter.com/rDILZMpFv5 — Pierre Rochard (@BitcoinPierre) January 20, 2026 Extreme Volatility Demands Separate Treatment Rochard’s letter presents a detailed analysis showing Bitcoin’s 73.3% annualized realized volatility over the 2015-2026 sample period, compared to just 18.1% for the S&P 500 over the same timeframe. The analysis documents a maximum drawdown of 83.8% from peak to trough, with daily return tails ranging from -10.0% at the 1st percentile to 10.7% at the 99th percentile, far exceeding typical asset behavior. Source: X/@BitcoinPierre “ Bitcoin’s risk profile is unusually idiosyncratic and materially non-linear: it has experienced repeated, deep peak-to-trough drawdowns and sustained periods of very high realized volatility ,” Rochard wrote. He argued these properties affect valuations, margin requirements, counterparty exposures, and liquidity demands “ in ways that cannot be reliably inferred from other scenario variables. “ The submission includes rolling correlation analysis demonstrating Bitcoin’s unstable dependence structure with macro-financial variables, with correlation between Bitcoin and S&P 500 returns ranging from negative to strongly positive across 90-observation windows. Source: X/@BitcoinPierre Rochard warned that “ a fixed ‘beta’ mapping from equities (or risk sentiment) to bitcoin will understate risk in some regimes and overstate it in others, ” making explicit scenario variables essential for consistent stress testing across banks. Implementation Would Reduce Model Divergence Rochard recommends that the Federal Reserve provide quarterly Bitcoin price paths for baseline, adverse, and severely adverse scenarios, with optional daily paths for global-market-shock datasets. He suggests three calibration methods: Historical feature matching tied to peak-to-trough drawdowns and realized-volatility percentiles Regime-switching time-series models with different volatilities for bull and bear markets Jump-diffusion frameworks with stochastic volatility explicitly representing tail risk “ The calibration goal is not to forecast bitcoin, but to supply a consistent and severe, but plausible, path that stress tests can translate into market and counterparty outcomes, ” Rochard explained. He emphasized that firms without Bitcoin exposure could simply ignore the variable, while those with direct or indirect exposure would gain “ transparency, reproducibility, and consistent scenario translation ” rather than relying on inconsistent proxy assumptions. The timing coincides with broader market stress, as Bitcoin plunged to $88,000 amid $1.07 billion in liquidations over 24 hours while gold surged past $4,800 per ounce . The divergence has renewed debate over Bitcoin’s role as either a risk asset or a strategic reserve, particularly after President Trump’s threats to impose tariffs on Greenland triggered a flight from US assets. CEO of Galaxy, Mike Novogratz, noted “ the gold price is telling us we are losing reserve currency status at an accelerating rate, ” adding that Bitcoin “ is disappointing as it is still being met with selling .” The gold price is telling us we are losing reserve currency status at an accelerating rate. The long bond selling off is not a good sign either. $BTC is disappointing as it is still being met with selling. I will reiterate it has to take out 100-103k to regain its upward… — Mike Novogratz (@novogratz) January 20, 2026 The Federal Reserve’s comment period for the 2026 stress test scenarios closes February 21. Senator Cynthia Lummis, who previously criticized potential government Bitcoin sales as squandering “ strategic assets while other nations are accumulating bitcoin, ” has proposed legislation to acquire up to 1 million Bitcoin over five years through budget-neutral methods, including tariff revenue and revalued gold reserves. The post Bitcoin Advocate Urges Federal Reserve to Add BTC to Stress Tests appeared first on Cryptonews .