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25 May 2026, 09:20

Fed’s Warsh Ambiguity Clouds Dollar Outlook, Says DBS

BitcoinWorld Fed’s Warsh Ambiguity Clouds Dollar Outlook, Says DBS The US dollar’s near-term trajectory remains clouded by uncertainty surrounding Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Warsh’s policy stance, according to a recent analysis from DBS Group Research. The ambiguity has introduced fresh volatility into currency markets, leaving traders reassessing their dollar positions. Warsh’s Influence on Market Sentiment Christopher Warsh, a prominent figure in Fed policy discussions, has not offered clear forward guidance in recent public appearances. DBS strategists note that this lack of clarity is contributing to a murky outlook for the greenback, as markets struggle to price in the Fed’s next moves on interest rates. The ambiguity is particularly notable given Warsh’s reputation as a hawkish voice on inflation control. “Without a clearer signal from Warsh, the dollar lacks a directional catalyst,” the DBS report states. “The market is left to parse mixed signals from other Fed officials, which is keeping the dollar range-bound against major peers.” Broader Dollar Dynamics The dollar index has been fluctuating in recent weeks, pressured by shifting expectations for US rate cuts and mixed economic data. DBS points out that while the Fed’s overall stance remains data-dependent, Warsh’s ambiguity adds an extra layer of uncertainty that could delay any sustained dollar rally. Key factors weighing on the dollar include: Mixed signals from other Fed officials on the pace of rate normalization. Resilient US economic data that complicates the case for rate cuts. Geopolitical tensions that drive safe-haven flows but also create risk-off headwinds. Implications for Forex Traders For forex traders, the lack of a clear Fed narrative means heightened sensitivity to any new commentary from Warsh or other policymakers. DBS advises clients to watch for any clarification from the Fed governor, as it could trigger a sharp move in the dollar. Until then, the currency may remain trapped in a narrow trading range against the euro and yen. Conclusion The dollar’s outlook remains heavily dependent on Fed communication. As DBS highlights, ambiguity from key figures like Warsh is preventing the market from establishing a clear direction. Traders and investors should monitor upcoming Fed speeches for any shift in tone that could break the current impasse. FAQs Q1: Why does Christopher Warsh’s stance matter for the dollar? Warsh is a key Fed governor whose views on inflation and interest rates influence market expectations for US monetary policy. Ambiguity from him creates uncertainty about future rate moves, which directly impacts the dollar’s value. Q2: What did DBS specifically say about the dollar outlook? DBS analysts stated that Warsh’s lack of clear guidance is clouding the dollar’s near-term trajectory, keeping it range-bound and without a strong directional bias until more clarity emerges. Q3: How should forex traders respond to this uncertainty? Traders should remain cautious and avoid large directional bets on the dollar until the Fed provides clearer signals. Watching for any new statements from Warsh or the FOMC could offer entry points for trades. This post Fed’s Warsh Ambiguity Clouds Dollar Outlook, Says DBS first appeared on BitcoinWorld .

25 May 2026, 09:15

Japanese Yen Intervention Needs Active BoJ Support, Says HSBC

BitcoinWorld Japanese Yen Intervention Needs Active BoJ Support, Says HSBC HSBC has issued a note to clients arguing that any future intervention by Japanese authorities to support the yen will require active backing from the Bank of Japan (BoJ) to be sustainable. The analysis comes as the yen continues to trade near multi-decade lows against the US dollar, raising speculation about another round of official action. Why BoJ support matters for intervention HSBC strategists point out that unilateral intervention by the Ministry of Finance, without corresponding monetary policy adjustments, has historically provided only temporary relief. In the current environment of elevated global interest rates, the gap between US and Japanese yields remains wide, making it expensive for Tokyo to defend the currency through direct market operations alone. The bank argues that for intervention to have a lasting impact, the BoJ must signal a credible path toward policy normalization, including potential rate hikes or a reduction in its bond-buying program. Without such signals, market participants are likely to view intervention as a stopgap measure rather than a structural shift. Market context and recent history Japan spent roughly ¥9.2 trillion ($60 billion) intervening in the currency market in September and October 2022, when the yen fell past 145 against the dollar. Those operations temporarily stabilized the currency, but the yen resumed its decline as the BoJ maintained its ultra-loose policy stance. In early 2025, the yen briefly weakened beyond 160 per dollar, prompting further verbal warnings from Finance Ministry officials. However, no large-scale intervention has been confirmed since late 2022, as authorities have shifted toward more cautious, measured rhetoric. What this means for traders and policymakers HSBC’s analysis suggests that the effectiveness of future intervention hinges on coordination between fiscal and monetary authorities. If the BoJ raises its policy rate or adjusts its yield curve control framework, the yen could gain sustained support. Without such moves, intervention risks being overwhelmed by market forces. For forex traders, the key takeaway is that yen strength may remain limited unless the BoJ delivers concrete policy changes. Verbal intervention alone is unlikely to reverse the trend, especially while the Federal Reserve maintains relatively high rates. Conclusion HSBC’s report underscores a critical reality for Japan: currency intervention is not a standalone tool. In a high-rate global environment, the BoJ’s policy stance will determine whether official action can meaningfully support the yen. Markets will watch closely for any shift in BoJ communication at upcoming meetings. FAQs Q1: Why does HSBC say BoJ support is needed for yen intervention? HSBC argues that without monetary policy adjustments, such as rate hikes or reduced bond buying, intervention by the Ministry of Finance provides only temporary relief. The BoJ’s policy stance determines the underlying interest rate differential, which is the primary driver of yen weakness. Q2: Has Japan intervened in the currency market recently? Japan intervened heavily in September and October 2022, spending around ¥9.2 trillion. Since then, authorities have issued verbal warnings but have not confirmed large-scale intervention, though the yen has tested new lows. Q3: What could make yen intervention more effective? According to HSBC, coordination between the Ministry of Finance and the Bank of Japan is key. A credible BoJ signal toward policy normalization would strengthen the impact of any direct market intervention by addressing the root cause of yen depreciation. This post Japanese Yen Intervention Needs Active BoJ Support, Says HSBC first appeared on BitcoinWorld .

25 May 2026, 09:14

Bitcoin demand falls to its most bearish level in 2026

Bitcoin’s ( BTC ) apparent demand has fallen to the lowest level in more than a year, showing that retail sentiment is cooling drastically. More precisely, the metric is approaching -160,000 BTC, which is a reading not seen since late April 2025, citing CryptoQuant data as of May 25. For comparison, the figure was approaching a yearly record high of 229,000 on May 27, 2025, meaning the current levels represent a roughly 30% decrease in more or less twelve months. Bitcoin apparent demand. Source: CryptoQuant Notably, the apparent demand has been in the negative for nearly the entirety of 2026 so far, with only a few brief positive periods in late February. What does negative Bitcoin apparent demand mean? Apparent demand is an on-chain metric used to measure whether Bitcoin buying pressure is strong enough to absorb newly available supply. In short, when the indicator falls deep into negative territory, it tends to signal that incoming demand is failing to keep pace with the amount of BTC entering circulation. Understandably, the drop in apparent demand reflects a broader shift in market behavior. After all, spot purchases represent direct capital inflow into Bitcoin and usually translate into more sustainable growth compared to, for instance, leveraged futures. Overall, then, the deepening negative reading shows that long-term holders are making more moves, which is adding supply-side pressure that current spot demand is struggling to absorb. What’s next for Bitcoin? At press time, BTC was trading at $77,260, up 0.69% over the previous 24 hours, thanks to news of a potential U.S.–Iran agreement, which sparked some relief across risk assets. 24-hour BTC price. Source: Finbold The latest uptick was also amplified by a large short squeeze in derivatives markets, with hundreds of millions in liquidations the day prior, alongside a rotation of capital out of altcoins. Given the setup discussed above, traders are most likely to keep a close eye on whether spot demand can stabilize further. However, spot Bitcoin ETF outflows remain a key headwind, continuing to offset bullish momentum from short-term catalysts as BlackRock alone offloads more than $1 billion worth of ‘digital gold.’ Looking ahead, the upcoming macro data, especially U.S. inflation (Core PCE) scheduled for May 28, remains the next key benchmark, as it could determine whether the rally extends or reverses. Featured image via Shutterstock The post Bitcoin demand falls to its most bearish level in 2026 appeared first on Finbold .

25 May 2026, 09:10

Forex Today: Risk Appetite Surges as Markets Bet on US-Iran Deal Progress

BitcoinWorld Forex Today: Risk Appetite Surges as Markets Bet on US-Iran Deal Progress Risk appetite dominated currency markets on Monday as traders reacted to growing expectations of a potential diplomatic breakthrough between the United States and Iran. The prospect of eased geopolitical tensions spurred a broad shift away from safe-haven assets, with the US dollar retreating against major peers and commodity-linked currencies gaining ground. Dollar Under Pressure as Geopolitical Risk Premium Fades The US dollar index (DXY) edged lower during the Asian and European trading sessions, extending losses from late last week. Market participants interpreted signals from both Washington and Tehran as indicating a possible framework for renewed nuclear talks, reducing the immediate geopolitical risk premium that had supported the greenback in recent weeks. The euro rose to a fresh two-week high near 1.0950, while the British pound tested resistance above 1.2700. The Japanese yen, traditionally a safe haven, weakened against the dollar as risk appetite improved, with USD/JPY climbing back above 149.50. Commodity Currencies Rally on Demand Outlook The Australian and New Zealand dollars were among the top performers, supported by a combination of improved risk sentiment and expectations that a US-Iran deal could lower oil price volatility and support global trade flows. The Australian dollar rose 0.6% to 0.6570, while the kiwi advanced to 0.6020. The Canadian dollar also strengthened, with USD/CAD falling to 1.3640, as oil prices stabilized on the prospect of reduced supply disruption fears. Emerging market currencies broadly gained, with the Mexican peso and South African rand leading the rally. Market Implications and Forward Outlook While the moves reflect a clear shift in sentiment, analysts caution that the situation remains fluid. No formal agreement has been announced, and negotiations could still face significant hurdles. If a deal materializes, the dollar could face further downside as safe-haven flows reverse, potentially pushing EUR/USD toward the 1.1000 handle. Conversely, a breakdown in talks could quickly reignite demand for the greenback and the yen. Traders are also watching for comments from Federal Reserve officials later this week for additional cues on the interest rate outlook. Conclusion Monday’s forex action underscores how quickly geopolitical developments can reshape market dynamics. The prospect of a US-Iran deal has injected a fresh wave of optimism into currency markets, weighing on the dollar and boosting risk-sensitive pairs. However, with negotiations still in flux, volatility is likely to remain elevated. Traders should stay attuned to headlines from diplomatic channels, as any shift in tone could trigger rapid repositioning. FAQs Q1: Why does a US-Iran deal affect forex markets? A US-Iran agreement could reduce geopolitical tensions, lower oil price volatility, and diminish demand for safe-haven currencies like the US dollar and Japanese yen, while boosting risk-sensitive currencies such as the Australian dollar and emerging market currencies. Q2: Which currencies benefit most from increased risk appetite? Commodity-linked currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD), emerging market currencies (MXN, ZAR), and high-beta currencies like the British pound tend to rally when risk appetite improves, while safe havens like USD, JPY, and CHF typically weaken. Q3: How long could the risk-on mood last? The duration depends on the pace and credibility of diplomatic progress. If concrete steps toward a deal are announced, the rally could extend for weeks. If talks stall or break down, risk appetite could reverse quickly, leading to a sharp dollar rebound. This post Forex Today: Risk Appetite Surges as Markets Bet on US-Iran Deal Progress first appeared on BitcoinWorld .

25 May 2026, 09:06

Bitcoin slips below $78K as Warsh-led Fed rattles rate-cut hopes

Bitcoin has remained under pressure below $78,000 even after Kevin Warsh took over as Federal Reserve chairman, as traders continue to focus on rising Treasury yields and low chances of short-term rate cuts. According to data from CoinGecko, Bitcoin (BTC) dropped to $74,190 on Saturday before recovering toward the $77,000 range, though buyers have struggled to reclaim the $78,000 level over the past several sessions. The decline came less than a day after Warsh, who has previously voiced support for Bitcoin and criticised central bank digital currencies, was sworn in as the new Fed chair. At the same time, bond markets moved sharply in a direction that analysts said could create problems for risk assets, including cryptocurrencies. The 2-year US Treasury yield climbed to 4.14%, its highest level since February 2025, despite the Fed’s benchmark rate currently sitting between 3.50% and 3.75%. Because the 2-year yield often tracks expectations for future monetary policy, traders interpreted the move as a sign that markets no longer expect aggressive easing under Warsh. CME FedWatch data showed that futures markets are now pricing in the possibility of a 25-basis-point rate hike by December, while expecting rates to remain largely unchanged through most of 2026. Historical data cited by BCA Research showed the Federal Reserve has frequently raised rates when the 2-year Treasury yield moved above the federal funds rate, as investors anticipated tighter monetary policy ahead. In previous cycles, yields falling below the Fed funds rate often pointed to expectations for future easing instead. Higher yields typically weaken Bitcoin’s liquidity-driven narrative because elevated borrowing costs and stronger real returns on government debt can reduce demand for speculative assets. Hawkish policy concerns offset crypto optimism Although Warsh has been viewed favorably within parts of the crypto industry due to his stance on financial innovation and opposition to CBDCs, analysts warned that his policy approach may still create headwinds for digital assets. In a Saturday post on X, analyst Crypto Patel said Warsh remains “a known inflation hawk,” adding that geopolitical risks tied to Iran and continued labor-market pressure may prevent the Fed from easing policy aggressively. Patel argued that support for crypto regulation should not automatically be interpreted as support for lower interest rates, a distinction some traders may have overlooked after Warsh’s appointment. Past Fed leadership transitions have also coincided with extended Bitcoin downturns, according to Lucky, an analyst. In a Saturday post, the analyst noted that Bitcoin fell 84% after Janet Yellen became Fed chair in 2014, dropped 73% after Jerome Powell took office in 2018, and declined 60% following Powell’s second term in 2022. Fresh macro concerns have also added pressure to market sentiment this week. Crypto markets entered a shortened US trading week with investors closely watching possible developments in US-Iran negotiations, upcoming inflation data, and revised GDP figures. The Kobeissi Letter described the setup as a “short but busy week ahead,” identifying updates surrounding a possible US-Iran agreement as one of the first major catalysts for risk assets. As previously noted on Invezz, Bitcoin briefly stabilised near $78,000 after President Donald Trump said negotiations with Iran were nearing completion, easing fears of a prolonged disruption in the Strait of Hormuz. Risk appetite improved across traditional markets as well, with US equities reportedly adding roughly $400 billion in value at Friday’s open following the headlines. A confirmed agreement could reduce energy-related inflation pressure and improve sentiment across crypto and equities, while stalled negotiations or renewed tensions may revive concerns over oil prices and consumer inflation. Elsewhere, traders are also preparing for Thursday’s release of April PCE inflation data and the second estimate of Q1 2026 GDP from the Bureau of Economic Analysis. According to Kiplinger, BofA Securities expects headline PCE inflation to rise 0.4% month over month, while core PCE is forecast to increase 0.3%. Stronger inflation readings could further reduce expectations for Fed rate cuts and support Treasury yields and the US dollar, conditions that have historically pressured Bitcoin and altcoins. Softer data, however, may improve the outlook for risk assets if markets begin pricing in easier monetary policy later this year. Bitcoin price analysis On the daily chart, Bitcoin continues to trade below all major exponential moving averages, keeping the larger market structure tilted to the downside despite the recent rebound from the $74,000 area. BTC/USD 1-D price chart. Source: TradingView. The 20-day EMA sat near $77,816 at the time of writing, while the 50-day and 100-day EMAs remained lower around $76,761 and $76,859, respectively. Overhead resistance from the 200-day EMA near $81,483 has also capped upside momentum throughout May. After failing to hold above the $82,000 region earlier this month, BTC slipped back under the short-term moving averages before finding support near the $74,000 to $75,000 zone. Buyers have since pushed price back toward $77,000, though the recovery remains weak as long as Bitcoin stays below the 20-day EMA and the psychological $78,000 level. Volume profile data on the daily timeframe also showed a heavy concentration of historical trading activity around the $67,700 region, suggesting that area remains a major long-term support zone if macro pressure intensifies further. Meanwhile, repeated rejection below the 200-day EMA points to hesitation among traders to rebuild aggressive long positions ahead of key inflation and GDP data later this week. On the 4-hour chart, short-term momentum has started to improve modestly after Bitcoin defended the recent lows near $74,000. BTC/USD 4H price chart. Source: TradingView. The RSI climbed back above 56 after briefly falling near oversold territory earlier in the week, indicating buyers have regained some short-term control. At the same time, the RSI moving average remained lower near 45, showing momentum recovery is still developing rather than fully established. Price action on the lower timeframe has also begun forming a series of higher lows since the weekend sell-off, with Bitcoin attempting to stabilise above the $77,000 area. Volatility, however, remains elevated. The average true range indicator stayed near 744, suggesting traders should still expect sharp intraday swings while macro headlines continue to drive sentiment. For bulls, reclaiming the $78,000 to $80,000 region could open the door for another test of the May highs near $82,000, where the 200-day EMA continues to act as a major resistance barrier. On the downside, losing the $76,000 area again may expose Bitcoin to another retest of the recent $74,000 low, especially if Treasury yields continue climbing or upcoming PCE inflation data strengthens the case for tighter monetary policy. The post Bitcoin slips below $78K as Warsh-led Fed rattles rate-cut hopes appeared first on Invezz

25 May 2026, 09:05

Gold retains intraday bullish bias as Iran peace deal hopes weigh on USD

BitcoinWorld Gold retains intraday bullish bias as Iran peace deal hopes weigh on USD Gold prices are holding a firm intraday bullish bias during Thursday’s Asian session, supported by renewed hopes for a diplomatic resolution to tensions with Iran that is keeping the US dollar under pressure. The precious metal is trading near recent highs, with buyers maintaining control as geopolitical risk premiums adjust. Market drivers: Peace deal hopes and dollar weakness Reports of potential progress in US-Iran negotiations have dampened safe-haven demand for the greenback, creating a tailwind for gold. The US Dollar Index (DXY) slipped below the 104.00 mark, making dollar-denominated commodities more attractive for international buyers. While a full peace deal remains unconfirmed, any easing of Middle East tensions tends to reduce demand for the dollar as a safe haven, indirectly boosting gold. Technical outlook: Bulls eye key resistance levels From a technical perspective, XAU/USD has maintained a positive trajectory since bouncing off support near the $2,350 region earlier this week. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains in bullish territory, suggesting momentum is on the side of buyers. Immediate resistance is seen near the $2,400 psychological level, with a sustained break above this zone potentially opening the door toward the $2,420 area. On the downside, support is firm around $2,370, with a deeper pullback likely finding bids near $2,350. What this means for traders and investors For market participants, the current setup underscores the interplay between geopolitical developments and currency markets. A confirmed peace deal could lead to a sharper dollar decline, providing further upside for gold. Conversely, any breakdown in talks or renewed hostilities could reverse the trend, boosting the dollar and capping gold’s gains. Traders should watch for headlines from diplomatic channels, as these will likely drive near-term volatility. Conclusion Gold’s intraday bullish bias is well-supported by a softer US dollar amid Iran peace deal optimism. While the technical picture favors further upside, the market remains highly sensitive to geopolitical news flow. Investors should monitor both diplomatic developments and key technical levels for directional cues. FAQs Q1: Why does an Iran peace deal affect gold prices? An Iran peace deal reduces geopolitical tensions, which typically weakens demand for the US dollar as a safe-haven asset. A weaker dollar makes gold cheaper for foreign buyers, supporting higher gold prices. Q2: What is the key support level for gold right now? The immediate support for gold is near the $2,370 level, with stronger support at $2,350. A break below these levels could signal a shift in short-term momentum. Q3: How long can this bullish bias last? The bullish bias is likely to persist as long as peace deal hopes remain in focus and the dollar stays under pressure. However, any negative headlines or a stronger-than-expected US economic data release could quickly reverse the trend. This post Gold retains intraday bullish bias as Iran peace deal hopes weigh on USD first appeared on BitcoinWorld .