5 Aug 2025, 07:29

HTX：Macro Dislocation and Crypto Re-Pricing – How Fed Revaluation and “Project Crypto” Are Resetting the Playing Field

The Federal Reserve’s latest rate decision jolted global markets—but it was the unexpected collapse in U.S. job growth that truly reshaped investor expectations. This week, Chloe (@ ChloeTalk1 ) from HTX Research offers insights into recent macro surprises and the regulatory pivot reshaping crypto’s policy landscape. Soft Jobs Data Resets Market Expectations After the July FOMC meeting, the Fed left the funds rate at 5.25%-5.50% and offered no timeline for rate cuts, stoking fears of a “higher-for-longer” regime. The 10-year Treasury yield jumped to 4.24% , the U.S.-Dollar Index reclaimed the 100 handle, gold slipped below $3,270 , and Bitcoin retreated to the $116,000 area as on-chain activity cooled. Three days later, the macro narrative flipped: July non-farm payrolls “collapsed,” with only 73k jobs versus the 180k consensus, while May–June gains were revised down by roughly 129k (-90 %). The sudden chill forced an aggressive rate reset—CME FedWatch showed the probability of a September cut surging from 38% to 82% , with two cuts by year-end now priced at 64% . The 10-year yield slid below 4.10% , gold bounced $40 to $3,363/oz , and Bitcoin briefly spiked before recession angst pushed it to an intraday low near $112,000 . Yet the broader economy still resembles a growth-slowdown rather than a full-blown recession. By 2025 Q2, household debt stood at 98% of disposable income —well below the 2008 peak of 133%. Credit-card delinquencies eased from 2.7% to 2.5% ; retail sales are holding a 2.8%-3.1% YoY band. America’s richest 10% control 72% of household wealth and finance nearly half of total consumption, providing a sturdy demand floor. On the corporate side, JPMorgan and Bank of America report commercial-loan growth of 5%-7% YoY , with no material uptick in loss reserves. Historically, a mix of softer payrolls and sticky-but-easing inflation marks the Fed’s turn toward accommodation, ushering in a “high-volatility liquidity window” where BTC and gold attract hedging flows while leveraged alt-coins face valuation and deleveraging pressure. Regulatory Shift Opens Up DeFi and RWA Momentum The truly disruptive catalyst comes from regulation. On 31 July , SEC Chair Paul Atkins unveiled “Project Crypto,” pledging to put U.S. finance “fully on-chain” via deregulation, innovation safe-harbors and exemptions. Atkins stated that most crypto assets should not be defaulted into securities status and that AMMs and on-chain lending are “non-intermediated financial activity” deserving legal recognition. The signal unlocks huge upside for DeFi protocols such as Uniswap , Aave and Lido , long suppressed by the “securities overhang.” According to data from HTX, DeFi tokens including UNI and AAVE have recorded notable gains in August. Atkins also floated a “Super-App” license for brokers to aggregate equities, crypto, staking and lending. The draft further names ERC-3643 —with its ONCHAINID permission layer—as the reference standard for tokenized RWA, paving a compliant path for real estate, private equity and other trillion-dollar markets. Crucially, the SEC will revise the decades-old Howey Test , introducing clear disclosure waivers and safe harbors for airdrops, ICOs and staking, ending the era where founders had to “flee to Cayman” or geo-block U.S. users; venture capital could now re-shore, reigniting an on-chain startup cycle in America. Outlook and Structural Signals Bitcoin and Ethereum remain central to market structure, with BTC dominance and stablecoin basis offering key signals for capital rotation. High-beta altcoins and leveraged products may remain under pressure, particularly if the U.S. dollar strengthens or long-term yields rebound above 4.40%. Tokens with clear compliance paths—especially DeFi governance assets and RWA tokens built on ERC-3643—are increasingly positioned to benefit from evolving policy support and real-world adoption narratives. With macro softening, liquidity conditions easing, and regulatory upgrading now converging, Bitcoin’s role as a global inflation hedge and policy-beta asset is hardening, while on-chain finance enjoys its first genuine policy tail-wind—setting the stage for the next structural up-cycle in crypto markets. *The above content is not an investment advice and does not constitute any offer or solicitation to offer or recommendation of any investment product. To learn more about HTX, please visit https://www.htx.com/ or HTX Square , and follow HTX on X , Telegram , and Discord . The post HTX：Macro Dislocation and Crypto Re-Pricing – How Fed Revaluation and “Project Crypto” Are Resetting the Playing Field first appeared on HTX Square .

5 Aug 2025, 07:07

Bitcoin's Long-Term Bullishness Evaporates From Options Market as Inflation Concern Rises

The bitcoin (BTC) bull, once confidently gazing into the future, is reconsidering its long-term bullish conviction. That's evident from the 180-day skew, measuring the difference in implied volatility (pricing) between Deribit-listed out-of-the-money call and put options. The metric has recently retreated to zero, according to data source Amberdata, indicating that long-term market sentiment has shifted from bullish to neutral. The shift comes as some analysts warn of a bear market in 2026. A similar reset occurred at the onset of the previous bitcoin bear market, according to Griffin Ardern, head of options trading and research at crypto financial platform BloFin. "I've noticed a rather worrying sign with the recent market pullback. Bitcoin's bullish sentiment for the far-month options has vanished, and it is now firmly neutral," Ardern told CoinDesk. "This means the options market believes it's difficult for BTC to establish a long-term uptrend, and the likelihood of new highs in the coming months is decreasing." "A similar situation last occurred in Jan and Feb 2022," he added. A put option offers insurance against price drops in the underlying asset, while a call provides an asymmetric bullish exposure. A positive skew implies a bias towards calls, indicating bullishness in the market, whereas a negative skew suggests the opposite. The neutral shift in the 180-day skew could be partly driven by structured products selling higher strike call options to generate additional yield on top of the spot market holdings. The popularity of the so-called covered call strategy could be driving the call implied volatility lower relative to puts. Macro jitters BTC fell over 4% last week, nearly testing its former record high of $11,965, as the core PCE, the Fed's preferred inflation measure, rose in June, while nonfarm payrolls disappointed, stoking concerns about the economy. The price drop has pushed short-term skews below zero, a sign of traders seeking downside protection through puts. According to Ardern, the inflationary effects of "supply chain impulses" are already showing up in economic data. "Although falling auto prices in the last CPI report offset rising prices for other goods, one thing is undeniable: the impulse from the West Coast of the Pacific has reached the East Coast, and retailers are already trying to pass on tariffs and a host of associated costs to consumers. While wholesalers and commodity trading firms are working to smooth supply chains, price increases will still occur, albeit more moderately or "delayed by several months," Ardern noted, explaining the renewed neutrality of the long-term BTC options. According to JPMorgan, President Donald Trump's tariffs are likely to elevate inflation in the second half of the year. "Global core inflation is projected to increase to 3.4% (annualized rate) in the second half of 2025, largely due to a tariff-related U.S. spike," analysts at the investment bank noted, adding that cost pressures will likely be concentrated in the U.S. An uptick in inflation could make it harder for the Fed to cut rates. Trump has repeatedly criticized the central bank for keeping rates elevated at 4.25%. Traders will receive the ISM non-manufacturing PMI later Tuesday, providing insights into inflation in the service sector, which accounts for a significant portion of the U.S. economy. It will be followed by July CPI and PPI releases later this week. Read more: Bitcoin Still on Track for $140K This Year, But 2026 Will Be Painful: Elliott Wave Expert

5 Aug 2025, 07:02

Capital B Acquires 62 Bitcoin, Boosting Total Holdings to 2,075 BTC

Capital B (The Blockchain Group), an artificial intelligence and bitcoin treasury company listed on Euronext Growth Paris, has confirmed the acquisition of 62 BTC for approximately $7.2 million (about €6.2 million). Following this acquisition, the company now holds a total of 2,075 BTC. Additionally, Capital B reported a remarkable Bitcoin yield of 1,446.3% year-to-date (YTD),

5 Aug 2025, 06:51

Bitcoin Struggles to Hold $115K; Solana, Dogecoin Show Relative Strength as Risk-Off Sentiment Lingers

Bitcoin (BTC0 remains stuck below $115,000 after a sharp weekend drop that erased nearly $6,000 from local highs and triggered over $1 billion in liquidations across leveraged long positions. While markets have stabilized somewhat since Monday, sentiment remains fragile amid a fresh round of Donald Trump-issued tariffs and another week of choppy ETF flows. BTC traded near $114,200 in the Asian afternoon hours on Tuesday, remaining flat on the day but still below the key $115,000 – $118,000 range that had acted as short-term support over the past two weeks. Ether (ETH) fared slightly better, recovering toward $3,650 after dipping under $3,550 over the weekend, supported by sustained institutional interest and resilient flows. “Although Bitcoin has not managed to regain ground past $115,000, Ethereum has nearly recovered this week’s dip,” said Nick Ruck, director at LVRG Research, in a note to CoinDesk. “Treasury strategies, IPOs, and the hunt for the next MicroStrategy are fueling demand. We remain positive the bull run can continue,” Ruck said. Altcoin season over? Altcoins, meanwhile, have struggled. Solana (SOL) is down nearly 20% from last week’s highs, and XRP (XRP) is flatlining near $3 despite broader market stabilization. A colloquial narrative that “altseason” is imminent has weakened, with traders rotating capital back into majors or moving to the sidelines entirely. Part of the risk-off tone stems from Friday’s U.S. jobs report, which came in weaker than expected, and a fresh round of trade tensions from Washington. The result is a broad flight to safety in global markets, with crypto caught in the crossfire. Friday also marked the second-largest outflow day for bitcoin spot ETFs, and the fourth-largest for ether, dimming hopes that institutional flows would offer short-term price support. Still, not all desks are turning bearish. QCP Capital noted in a Monday note that the broader structure remains bullish. “The recent drawdown appears more corrective than capitulatory,” the firm said in a client note. It highlighted growing activity in BTC options markets — specifically 29AUG25 call flys targeting $124,000 — as a sign that sophisticated players are positioning for a rebound. Put skew remains elevated but is not yet flashing panic. A move back above $115,000, combined with a rebound in ETF inflows and compressing implied volatility, could flip sentiment quickly, QCP said. Until then, traders are closely monitoring ETF flow data. If institutional demand stabilizes and macro jitters subside, this week’s consolidation could set the stage for a renewed push toward new highs. However, if outflows persist and risk appetite continues to fade, especially in alternative assets, markets may face another wave of de-risking before finding a true floor. Read more: Bitcoin's Long-Term Bullishness Evaporates From Options Market as Inflation Concern Rises

5 Aug 2025, 06:38

Bitcoin Asia 2025 Assembles Most Influential Voices in Hong Kong​

BitcoinWorld Bitcoin Asia 2025 Assembles Most Influential Voices in Hong Kong​ HONG KONG – July 21, 2025 – Bitcoin Asia 2025 after its stellar announcement of keynote by Eric Trump is set to deliver its most compelling speaker lineup yet, gathering regional leaders from government, finance, media, tech, and culture in the heart of Asia’s financial capital. Following a sold-out debut in 2024, Bitcoin Asia returns to Hong Kong and its Convention and Exhibition Center on August 28-29, 2025 to showcase the depth and diversity of Asia’s growing Bitcoin movement—amplifying voices that are shaping policy, redefining capital markets, and building the decentralized future. Policymakers and Regulators Signal Growing Institutional Support With Hong Kong’s ambition to become a global digital asset hub, Bitcoin Asia is proud to welcome Dr. The Hon Johnny NG, Kit Chong MH, JP , Member of the HKSAR Legislative Council , a leading voice in advancing virtual asset policy. Dr. Eric Yip , Executive Director of the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission , brings invaluable insights into how Asia’s most important regulatory body is shaping compliant, secure frameworks for financial innovation. From across the border, Jeremy Tan , the first Bitcoin-aligned candidate in Singapore’s national elections , joins the stage to share his vision for digital sovereignty and electoral reform in Southeast Asia’s leading tech state. Bitcoin as Culture: Media, Music, and Meaning Asia’s Bitcoin scene isn’t just financial—it’s cultural. Bonnie Chang , creator of Bonnie Blockchain 邦妮區塊鏈 , commands the largest Chinese-language Bitcoin YouTube audience in the world. With over 330,000 subscribers, she makes Bitcoin accessible to millions seeking clarity in uncertain times. Chan Baek , Korean musician and music producer, explores Bitcoin through music and philosophy, weaving themes of sovereignty, neutrality, and freedom into his art and message. Michael Guo , founder of Bitcoin TV , leads one of the most influential Web3 content platforms in Asia, broadcasting daily across seven languages to over 50,000 viewers. A veteran of traditional media and a DAO governance pioneer, Guo bridges past and future in digital storytelling. Bitcoin Builders from Across the Region At the infrastructure layer, Jack Yang of LTP , and Stephen Duan , CTO of GOAT Network and former Baidu Blockchain co-founder, will explore technical innovations powering Bitcoin’s next chapter. Jademont Zheng , founder of Waterdrip Capital , and Jason Fang of Sora Ventures will unpack investment strategies driving institutional adoption across Asia, including “microstrategy” plays reshaping treasury models in Japan and Hong Kong. Representing the frontier of Bitcoin education, Jimmy Kostro of Bitcoin Chiang Mai will share his work with city governments and universities to create a pan-Asian Bitcoin learning network centered in Thailand. Japan’s Teruko Neriki , who launched Tokyo Bitcoin Base and translated foundational Bitcoin texts, will spotlight grassroots growth in Satoshi’s homeland. Corporate Bitcoin Strategy and the Asian Treasury Pivot Metaplanet , title sponsor of Bitcoin Asia, leads the charge in institutional Bitcoin adoption across the region. As the first public company in Japan to implement a Bitcoin treasury reserve strategy, Metaplanet is setting a precedent in a market traditionally known for financial conservatism. CEO Simon Gerovich will speak to the company’s bold vision—positioning Bitcoin not as a speculative asset, but as strategic money fueling a new era of conviction-led corporate finance. They’ll be joined by Moon Inc. (HKG:1723), the first publicly traded company on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange to add Bitcoin to its balance sheet. CEO John Riggins and Head of Bitcoin Strategy Jesse Myers will offer an inside look into the mechanics of institutional Bitcoin integration in the financial capital of Asia. Also on the roster is Ted Kim , CEO of K Wave Media , who will share plans for a newly announced $1B Bitcoin Strategic Reserve rollout in 2025 , reinforcing the region’s accelerating momentum behind sovereign balance sheet diversification. Visionaries Guiding the Future of Digital Property Rights Finally, Bitcoin Asia welcomes Yat Siu , Co-Founder and Executive Chairman of Animoca Brands , whose pioneering work in blockchain gaming and digital property rights has reshaped what ownership means in the open metaverse. With over 540 portfolio companies and deep conviction in decentralization, Yat represents Asia’s vision for an equitable digital future. For preliminary speaker lineup visit: asia.b.tc/speakers About The Bitcoin Conference The Bitcoin Conference, organised by BTC Media, the parent company of Bitcoin Magazine , is a global event series, featuring notable industry speakers, workshops, exhibitions, and entertainment. These events serve as vital platforms for Bitcoin industry leaders, developers, investors, and enthusiasts to gather, network, and exchange ideas. The flagship event took place in 2025 in Las Vegas. Bitcoin 2026 is announced to be held in Las Vegas in April 2026. Its international events include Bitcoin Asia (Hong Kong, August 2025), Bitcoin Amsterdam (Amsterdam, November 2025) and Bitcoin MENA (Abu Dhabi, December 2025). This post Bitcoin Asia 2025 Assembles Most Influential Voices in Hong Kong​ first appeared on BitcoinWorld and is written by Keshav Aggarwal

5 Aug 2025, 06:25

Japan’s top negotiator, Akazawa visiting Washington today

Ryosei Akazawa, the head of Japan’s trade negotiating team, said he was leading his cavalry back to Washington starting today, August 5, to press for swift action on the auto tariff cut. Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshimasa Hayashi also called for quicker issuance of Trump’s executive order to reduce auto tariffs from 27.5% to 15%. The Economic Revitalization Minister said his team “will push” the U.S. to ensure the executive order is prioritized and “the agreed tariff on automobiles and automotive components” is effected “as soon as possible.” Akazawa also mentioned that Japan was trying to avoid the “stacking” problem, where multiple tariffs could impact its goods. Last week, Prime Minister Ishiba said Japan exported nearly 4.318K products to the U.S. He added that his country was preparing necessary measures to cushion the effects of the high auto tariffs. Japan initially wanted those tariffs removed, but the U.S. stood its ground, leading Japan to agree to lower taxes. However, Akazawa was quoted last week saying it could take time for the 15% auto tariff rate to be effected. He hopes his team will succeed and seal the deal, similar to the auto tariff agreement recently entered into by the U.S. and Britain. Hayashi says the executive order will reduce uncertainty The Chief Cabinet Secretary recently said President Trump’s executive order to cut tariffs on Japanese automobile exports to the U.S. would reduce the uncertainty over “U.S. trade policy.” It would also mitigate the “downside risks” likely to affect Japan’s economy. If successful, the revised tariffs will be implemented from August 7. They were initially expected to take effect on August 1. Hayashi disclosed that Japan would continue to call on the U.S. to implement the revised bilateral agreement as soon as possible. He added that his country “will closely monitor” the progress on these talks on cars and auto parts. According to Hayashi and other Japanese officials, higher tariffs on Japanese cars dealt a massive blow to carmaking companies like Honda Motor Co. and Toyota Motor Corp . The U.S. market is critical for both companies’ bottom lines. “We will continue to call for the United States to take measures to implement the bilateral agreement swiftly, including reductions in tariffs on cars and auto parts.” – Yoshimasa Hayashi , Chief Cabinet Secretary of Japan Akazawa also emphasized that Japanese exports to the U.S. with a more than 15% levy should be exempted from the additional 15%. However, the head of the Democratic Party for the People, Yuichiro Tamaki, worried that the revised deal would not be enough to minimize the negative impact of tariffs on Japan’s economy. Noda believes the new deal should be formalized The head of the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan, Yoshihiko Noda, preferred the U.S.-Japan trade deal to be formalized in writing. He added that the signing should be a public event, like a bilateral summit. The former Prime Minister also stressed the need for the Japanese government to “draw up” an economic stimulus package to address any “tariff fallout.” However, he pointed out that Prime Minister Ishiba had not mentioned a supplementary budget for the 2025/26 fiscal year. Ishiba recently urged officials who attended a government task force meeting to “take all possible steps” to ease the impact of Trump’s tariffs. He claimed that the country’s economists had predicted things would be slow in the “export-driven economy.” However, just a day after the U.S.-Japan deal, the U.S. announced that Japan would buy $8 billion worth of U.S. farm and food products, such as bioethanol, fertilizers, corn, and soybeans. It also said Japan would buy more U.S.-made defense equipment worth billions of dollars annually. The Asian U.S. ally is also expected to buy about 100 Boeing planes. Get seen where it counts. Advertise in Cryptopolitan Research and reach crypto’s sharpest investors and builders.