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13 May 2026, 11:25

Arkham Publishes On-Chain Tracking Map for Suspected Iran Central Bank Crypto Wallets

BitcoinWorld Arkham Publishes On-Chain Tracking Map for Suspected Iran Central Bank Crypto Wallets Blockchain analytics firm Arkham Intelligence has released a publicly accessible on-chain tracking map for cryptocurrency wallets believed to be linked to the Central Bank of Iran. The move follows the U.S. Treasury Department’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) designation of two Tron (TRX) TRC-20 addresses on April 24, which were added to the Specially Designated Nationals (SDN) list. The map is designed to help law enforcement agencies, compliance teams, and the general public monitor connected addresses and trace fund flows in real time. Background of the Sanctions OFAC’s decision to blacklist the two Tron addresses marks a significant step in targeting Iran’s use of cryptocurrency to bypass international financial sanctions. At the time of the designation, U.S. authorities announced that they had frozen over $344 million in Tether (USDT) held in these wallets, working in coordination with Tether’s compliance team. The action underscores the growing collaboration between regulators and stablecoin issuers to enforce sanctions in the digital asset space. Arkham’s Tracking Tool and Its Implications Arkham’s platform aggregates blockchain data from multiple sources, including Tron, to provide a visual representation of wallet connections and transaction histories. By publishing this map, Arkham aims to increase transparency and enable faster identification of related addresses that may be used to move funds covertly. The tool is particularly relevant given the scale of Iran’s crypto market: estimates suggest Iran’s total cryptocurrency trading volume reached approximately $11.4 billion in 2024 and around $10 billion in 2025, according to industry data. Why This Matters for the Crypto Ecosystem The release of this tracking map highlights the dual role of blockchain analytics in both facilitating legitimate financial oversight and raising privacy concerns. For regulators and law enforcement, it provides a powerful tool to combat illicit finance. For the broader crypto community, it reinforces the reality that public blockchains are not anonymous and that sanctioned entities face increasing scrutiny. The case also demonstrates how stablecoin issuers like Tether are actively cooperating with authorities to freeze assets, a trend that could influence future regulatory frameworks. Conclusion Arkham’s decision to publish an on-chain map of suspected Iranian central bank wallets represents a notable development in the intersection of blockchain transparency and international sanctions enforcement. By making this data publicly available, the firm is contributing to ongoing efforts to monitor and disrupt financial networks that may be used to evade sanctions. As the U.S. government continues to target crypto-related sanctions evasion, tools like Arkham’s map are likely to become increasingly important for both compliance and public accountability. FAQs Q1: What is the purpose of Arkham’s on-chain tracking map? The map is designed to help law enforcement and the public track cryptocurrency wallet addresses believed to be linked to the Central Bank of Iran, following OFAC sanctions. It visualizes connections and fund flows to aid in monitoring and compliance. Q2: Which blockchain addresses are being tracked? The map is based on two Tron (TRX) TRC-20 addresses that OFAC added to its Specially Designated Nationals (SDN) list on April 24. These addresses are suspected of being used by Iran’s central bank. Q3: How much crypto was frozen in connection with these wallets? U.S. authorities, in cooperation with Tether, froze over $344 million in USDT held in the sanctioned wallets at the time of the designation. This post Arkham Publishes On-Chain Tracking Map for Suspected Iran Central Bank Crypto Wallets first appeared on BitcoinWorld .

13 May 2026, 11:20

GBP/USD Nears Key Moving Averages, Societe Generale Warns of Potential Inflection

BitcoinWorld GBP/USD Nears Key Moving Averages, Societe Generale Warns of Potential Inflection The British pound is approaching critical technical levels against the US dollar, with Societe Generale analysts highlighting that the currency pair is nearing key moving averages that could signal a turning point. The French bank’s latest note suggests traders should watch for a potential breakout or reversal as the exchange rate tests these thresholds. Technical Crossroads for Cable Societe Generale’s technical strategy team points out that GBP/USD, often referred to as “cable,” is currently trading in close proximity to its 50-day and 200-day moving averages. These widely monitored indicators often act as dynamic support or resistance levels. A decisive move above or below these averages could set the tone for the pair’s direction in the coming weeks. The analysis comes as the dollar has been under pressure from shifting expectations around US interest rate cuts, while the pound has been supported by relatively hawkish signals from the Bank of England. What This Means for Traders For market participants, the proximity to these moving averages creates a technically significant zone. A sustained break above the 200-day moving average, for instance, could be interpreted as a bullish signal, potentially opening the door to further gains. Conversely, a failure to hold above the 50-day moving average might suggest renewed bearish momentum. Societe Generale’s report does not provide a directional call but emphasizes the importance of these levels for short-term trading strategies. The analysis is particularly relevant given the broader macroeconomic backdrop of divergent central bank policies and ongoing geopolitical uncertainties. Broader Market Context The pound’s recent performance has been shaped by a mix of domestic and global factors. UK inflation data has remained sticky, keeping pressure on the Bank of England to maintain a cautious stance on rate cuts. Meanwhile, the US dollar has weakened as markets price in a potential pivot from the Federal Reserve. This dynamic has created a tug-of-war for GBP/USD, making technical levels like moving averages even more critical for traders seeking clarity. Societe Generale’s note adds to a growing chorus of analysts watching these technical thresholds as a barometer for the pair’s next major move. Conclusion GBP/USD’s approach toward key moving averages represents a technically significant moment for the currency pair. Societe Generale’s analysis underscores the importance of these levels in determining near-term direction, but the broader outcome will depend on evolving central bank policies and economic data. Traders should monitor these technical zones closely while remaining aware of the fundamental factors that could drive a breakout or reversal. FAQs Q1: What are moving averages and why do they matter for GBP/USD? Moving averages are technical indicators that smooth out price data to identify trends. The 50-day and 200-day moving averages are particularly important because they are widely watched by traders as dynamic support and resistance levels. When a currency pair approaches these averages, it often signals a potential inflection point. Q2: Is Societe Generale predicting a specific direction for the pound? No, the bank’s note focuses on the technical significance of the current price action near key moving averages. It highlights the levels to watch rather than making a directional forecast. The outcome will depend on whether the pair breaks above or below these thresholds. Q3: How do central bank policies affect GBP/USD technical levels? Central bank decisions on interest rates directly influence currency valuations. The Bank of England’s stance on inflation and the Federal Reserve’s outlook on rate cuts create fundamental pressure that can either reinforce or break through technical levels like moving averages. Traders must consider both technical and fundamental factors. This post GBP/USD Nears Key Moving Averages, Societe Generale Warns of Potential Inflection first appeared on BitcoinWorld .

13 May 2026, 11:18

ETF Flows Anchor Bitcoin As On-Chain Profits Return

Bitcoin crossed the midweek over $81,000 and the STRC ex-dividend date still hovering around $80,000, holding within a tight range since the weekend, after reclaiming the two cost-basis levels that defined resistance: the True Market Mean (TMM) at $79,200 and the Short-Term Holder cost basis (STHRP) at $79,500. Spot flows suggest the projected buying pressure expected around 15 May was pulled forward, and the lack of follow-through now, after reclaiming those resistance levels, is concerning. It could be an early sign of a retracement over the next few days. Bitcoin price is around $80,500 by the time of publication. The TMM and STHRP are dynamic levels that act as support or resistance respectively, representing the average cost basis across a varied cohort of participants who typically transact around their cost basis. Continuously retesting those levels as support, and failing to expand even with strong ETF buying and reduced miner distribution, places the market in a neutral region. The corporate-treasury channel that powered the prior leg has stepped back materially. The institutional bid is narrowing toward a single channel (ETFs), and that shift is the behavioural story of the week so far. Macroeconomic Backdrop The current economic environment is restrictive. On Tuesday, the US 10-year Treasury yield rose to a peak of 4.42 percent, pushing expectations for rate cuts further into the second half of 2026. While nominal yields are rising, the Dollar Index has held steady at 97.88 and the S&P 500 gained 0.84 percent to reach 7,398.93. Investors still have an appetite for risk. These conditions are not yet a major obstacle, but they do place constraints on bitcoin that influence positioning in perpetual futures. The year-on-year trend in energy costs ran higher through April, supporting the view that primary inflation gauges likely firmed beyond core price levels. High interest rates are capping price growth in assets that do not provide a yield. The positive correlation between bitcoin and equities also suggests the current recovery is being driven by a general move into risk assets and not a shift toward bitcoin as a stable form of money. That distinction matters for the derivatives market: while rallies in risk assets are usually supported by direct buying, this recovery shows more signs of leverage. Options: Skew Flattens, Gamma Tightens The options market is behaving differently from the perpetual market. On Deribit, call options make up nearly 57 percent of total open interest. The most concentrated contract is the $80,000 call for late May. A cluster of put options has also formed at the $85,000 level, worth over $1.2 billion, likely a way for traders to hedge exposure to the underlying. However, the skew is becoming more neutral as traders move away from the heavy hedging that defined April. The reduction in short-term protection is a notable trend this week. Implied volatility has risen significantly from its late-April lows and currently sits near 45 percent. Dealers are preparing for more price movement than we have seen recently. The most significant data point is gamma positioning. A concentrated short gamma cluster of roughly $2 billion has built up around the $82,000 level. In this environment, dealers must buy as prices rise and sell as prices fall, which can accelerate moves. Recent options activity has favoured call buying, so dealers have been forced to buy to manage their risk. A move between $82,000 and $85,200 could be very volatile, while a drop below $79,000 could be equally fast. The market is positioned to break sharply rather than stay in a quiet range. On-Chain Data and Challenges On-chain data is more constructive now than at any point since early February. Total realised profit and loss has turned positive for the first time in three months. The shift is small, but the change in direction is important. Long-term holders have started taking some profits, selling about $180 million per day. That is a moderate amount compared with past cycles and suggests current selling is controlled. The concern lies in daily realised losses, which are still averaging $479 million. In quieter periods, this figure sits closer to $200 million. Until losses drop back to that level, the on-chain recovery is not fully confirmed. Price has returned to average levels, but seller behaviour has not yet normalised. The market is improving but is not yet stable, which leaves room for the price moves outlined in the options section. Key Metric: Treasury Bid Composite (TBC) Through much of 2024 and 2025, two groups of institutional buyers supported the market: The ETF channel: US spot bitcoin ETFs, representing demand from traditional funds. The DAT channel: Digital Asset Treasuries, such as public companies that buy bitcoin for their balance sheets. Both groups being active provided stability. If one stepped back, the other could maintain the price. This week, only the ETF channel is active. Average monthly flows for ETFs have been positive, with significant buying recorded through March and April. Corporate buyers, by contrast, have gone quiet. Major players bought very little bitcoin last week, and one key asset has seen an 80 percent drop in purchase volume compared with last month. Alternative Viewpoint The most common view this week is that negative funding combined with a price recovery sets up a short squeeze, with a target of $85,200. An alternative reading is that the same factors supporting a squeeze also act as a cap on the price. Dealers may chase prices higher initially, but their behaviour shifts once price clears a certain level. At that point, their hedging starts to slow the move rather than accelerate it. Given the high level of realised losses still in the market, a direct push to $85,200 looks less likely. A quick jump to the $82,000 to $84,000 range, followed by a period of neutralisation, seems more probable. In that scenario, the squeeze is a temporary trigger rather than a durable trend. Key Events to Watch The following events will offer more information before the full report on Saturday. Wednesday 13 May: BitGo Q1 earnings will provide the first read on institutional storage trends and help confirm whether more large investors are entering the market. Thursday 14 May: The performance of specific corporate assets will indicate whether large companies are still interested in using bitcoin for their treasuries. Friday 15 May: STRC dividend payment occurs. A stable rate would be a positive signal for the market. Through 16 May: Watch for reports of large bitcoin sales by major companies, which could weigh on the market. Ongoing: Monitor whether realised losses drop below $200 million per day, which would confirm the recovery is sustainable. Ongoing: Watch for funding to turn positive. If it rises too high, it could signal crowded positioning on one side of the trade. The current range for bitcoin is $79,100 to $85,200. The question for the rest of the week is whether retail demand through ETFs can hold the price up, or whether larger corporate buyers will need to return. The post ETF Flows Anchor Bitcoin As On-Chain Profits Return appeared first on Bitfinex blog .

13 May 2026, 11:15

US Dollar: Hot CPI Keeps Fed Cautious, Says Danske Bank

BitcoinWorld US Dollar: Hot CPI Keeps Fed Cautious, Says Danske Bank The US dollar remains supported after a hotter-than-expected inflation report reinforces the Federal Reserve’s cautious stance on interest rate cuts, according to analysts at Danske Bank. Inflation Data Reinforces Fed Patience The latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) data came in above consensus estimates, signaling that inflationary pressures in the US economy are proving stickier than many had anticipated. The core CPI reading, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, rose 0.3% month-over-month, while the annual rate held steady at 3.3%. For the Federal Reserve, this report provides further justification for maintaining a patient approach to monetary easing. Danske Bank strategists note that the data reduces the likelihood of near-term rate cuts, as the central bank continues to prioritize bringing inflation down to its 2% target. Market Implications for the US Dollar The immediate market reaction saw the US dollar index (DXY) edge higher, as traders repriced the probability of a rate cut at the next Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. According to CME Group’s FedWatch Tool, the implied probability of a 25-basis-point cut in September fell to around 45%, down from nearly 60% before the CPI release. Danske Bank’s view aligns with this repricing. The bank expects the dollar to remain firm in the near term, supported by a hawkish Fed and resilient US economic data. However, they caution that the trajectory could shift if upcoming data shows signs of a sharper slowdown in growth. What This Means for Investors For currency markets, the key takeaway is that the dollar’s strength is likely to persist as long as the Fed remains on hold. This has implications for emerging market currencies, which often face pressure when US interest rates stay elevated. Additionally, the euro and yen could remain under pressure against the dollar, given the relatively more dovish stances of the European Central Bank and Bank of Japan. Conclusion The hot CPI print serves as a reminder that the battle against inflation is not yet won. The Federal Reserve’s cautious posture, as highlighted by Danske Bank, suggests that the US dollar will retain its strength in the near term, barring a significant deterioration in the economic outlook. Investors should watch upcoming data releases, particularly the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, for further clues on the Fed’s next move. FAQs Q1: Why does a hot CPI report affect the US dollar? A hot CPI report suggests inflation is not cooling as quickly as expected, which reduces the likelihood of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates. Higher interest rates or the expectation of them makes the US dollar more attractive to investors, supporting its value. Q2: What is Danske Bank’s outlook for the US dollar? Danske Bank expects the US dollar to remain firm in the near term, supported by a cautious Federal Reserve and resilient US economic data. They believe the dollar will stay strong until there is clearer evidence that inflation is sustainably moving toward the Fed’s 2% target. Q3: How does the Fed’s cautious stance affect other currencies? A cautious Fed that keeps rates higher for longer tends to strengthen the US dollar against other major currencies, particularly those from economies with more dovish central banks, such as the eurozone and Japan. This can lead to depreciation pressure on the euro and yen. This post US Dollar: Hot CPI Keeps Fed Cautious, Says Danske Bank first appeared on BitcoinWorld .

13 May 2026, 11:10

Euro Extends Losses Below 1.1700 as Eurozone Economic Data Disappoints Markets

BitcoinWorld Euro Extends Losses Below 1.1700 as Eurozone Economic Data Disappoints Markets The euro extended its recent decline against the US dollar on Wednesday, slipping below the 1.1700 threshold as a fresh batch of Eurozone economic data fell short of market expectations. The common currency struggled to regain momentum, reflecting growing concerns over the region’s economic recovery pace. Disappointing Data Weighs on Sentiment Eurozone industrial production figures for the latest month came in weaker than forecast, with several key member states reporting a slowdown in manufacturing output. The data reinforced the view that the region’s post-pandemic rebound is losing steam, particularly as supply chain disruptions and elevated energy costs continue to pressure businesses. Separately, consumer confidence indicators also dipped, suggesting that household spending — a critical driver of Eurozone growth — may face headwinds in the coming quarters. Analysts noted that the European Central Bank’s cautious policy stance has done little to bolster the currency amid a strengthening US dollar. Market Reaction and Technical Outlook The EUR/USD pair broke decisively below the 1.1700 support level in early European trading, a move that traders viewed as a bearish signal. The next key support level is seen around 1.1650, with a break below that opening the door to a test of the 1.1600 region. From a fundamental perspective, the divergence between the ECB’s accommodative monetary policy and the Federal Reserve’s tightening cycle continues to weigh on the euro. The Fed’s more aggressive interest rate hikes have boosted US Treasury yields, making dollar-denominated assets more attractive to investors. What This Means for Traders and Businesses For forex traders, the sustained move below 1.1700 suggests that bearish momentum may persist in the near term. Importers and exporters dealing in euros and dollars should closely monitor the exchange rate, as further weakness in the euro could impact profit margins and pricing strategies. Businesses with exposure to currency fluctuations may consider hedging strategies to mitigate risk. The current environment underscores the importance of staying informed about macroeconomic data releases and central bank communications. Conclusion The euro’s slide below 1.1700 reflects a combination of disappointing Eurozone economic data and persistent dollar strength driven by Federal Reserve policy. While the currency may find temporary support at key technical levels, the broader outlook remains tilted to the downside unless Eurozone data shows a meaningful improvement or the ECB signals a more hawkish stance. Traders and businesses should remain vigilant as the situation develops. FAQs Q1: Why did the euro fall below 1.1700? The euro fell after Eurozone industrial production and consumer confidence data disappointed market expectations, reinforcing concerns about the region’s economic recovery. Additionally, the US dollar strengthened on expectations of further Federal Reserve rate hikes. Q2: What are the key support levels for EUR/USD now? The next key support level is around 1.1650, followed by the 1.1600 region. A break below these levels could open the door to further declines toward 1.1500. Q3: How might this affect European businesses? A weaker euro makes European exports cheaper for foreign buyers, which can benefit exporters. However, it also increases the cost of imported goods and raw materials, potentially squeezing profit margins for businesses that rely on imports. This post Euro Extends Losses Below 1.1700 as Eurozone Economic Data Disappoints Markets first appeared on BitcoinWorld .

13 May 2026, 11:04

Bitcoin reclaims $81K as traders await Trump-Xi China talks

The cryptocurrency market is recording improved performance on Wednesday following a poor start to the week. Bitcoin, the leading cryptocurrency by market cap, is trading above $81,000 on Wednesday amid accelerating US inflation risks driven by the Iran war and US President Donald Trump’s travel to China. Traders are focusing on the trip to China as diplomatic talks between the two countries could be key to the market’s performance in the coming days. All focus on Trump’s visit to China Bitcoin has reclaimed the $81,000 level on Wednesday after briefly dropping below $80,000 the previous day. The positive performance comes as US President Donald Trump will visit China to meet President Xi Jinping. Trump will be accompanied by industry leaders, including Elon Musk and Jensen Huang, CEO of NVIDIA . Trump said the discussion will mainly focus on trade and not the Iran war. The president added that, “We’re either going to make a deal, or they’re going to be decimated one way or the other,” clarifying his stance on Iran. On Tuesday, the US Consumer Price Index came in hot, with a 3.81% Year-on-Year (YOY) rise and a 2.75% rise in CPI ex-food and energy (YoY). The data indicates that rising oil prices linked to the US-Iran war and the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz are causing inflation in the country. While altcoin ETFs recorded inflows on Tuesday, Bitcoin ETFs recorded outflows, suggesting that institutional investors are adopting a wait-and-see approach. Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded an outflow of $233 million on Tuesday, resulting in Bitcoin’s temporary dip below $80,000. Bitcoin price forecast The BTC/USD 4-hour chart remains bullish as Bitcoin has reclaimed the $81,000 level. At press time, BTC is trading at $81,200, above the 50-day and 100-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), clustered in the mid-$76,000s. However, the rally remains capped by the 200-day EMA near $82,037, which is acting as the overhead supply zone. Bitcoin is also trading above the 50% retracement at roughly $78,962, indicating that the dips remain supported. The momentum indicators are flashing bullish signals thanks to the latest buys. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily chart around 62 hints at firm but not yet overbought upside momentum. Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) has slipped slightly into negative territory, suggesting that there could be a pause or shallow consolidation before the rally continues. If the rally persists, bulls would see immediate resistance at the 200-day EMA around $82,037, with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement near $83,437 next. A daily candle close above these levels would bring the more substantial resistance at $84,410 into focus in the near term. On the downside, initial support lies at the psychological $80,000 level. Failure to defend this level would see sellers push BTC lower towards the 50% retracement at $78,962. The 100-day and 50-day EMAs are near $76,735 and $76,421, respectively, and could also serve as support levels if the selling pressure persists. The post Bitcoin reclaims $81K as traders await Trump-Xi China talks appeared first on Invezz