hodler

8 May 2026, 16:10

USD/CAD Rises as Canadian Jobs Data Misses Expectations, Pressuring the Loonie

BitcoinWorld USD/CAD Rises as Canadian Jobs Data Misses Expectations, Pressuring the Loonie The Canadian dollar weakened against its U.S. counterpart on Friday after the latest employment report from Statistics Canada came in well below market expectations. The USD/CAD pair climbed to session highs as traders priced in a higher probability of further monetary easing by the Bank of Canada. Employment Data Disappoints Canada’s economy added only 1,100 jobs in March, a sharp miss compared to the consensus forecast of 20,000 new positions. The unemployment rate edged up to 6.2%, signaling softness in the labor market that could influence the Bank of Canada’s next policy decision. The previous month’s strong gains were partially revised lower, adding to the bearish sentiment around the loonie. Market Reaction and BoC Outlook Following the release, USD/CAD jumped from the 1.3640 area to above 1.3700, reflecting immediate selling pressure on the Canadian dollar. The move was amplified by broad U.S. dollar strength, which also benefited from safe-haven flows amid ongoing trade uncertainty. For the Bank of Canada, the soft jobs report strengthens the case for a rate cut at the next meeting in June. Governor Tiff Macklem has previously signaled that the central bank is prepared to adjust policy if economic conditions deteriorate. Money markets are now pricing in a roughly 60% probability of a 25-basis-point cut, up from 45% before the data. Implications for Traders and Importers The weaker Canadian dollar has immediate implications for businesses and consumers. Importers of U.S.-denominated goods will face higher costs, potentially feeding into domestic inflation. Exporters, however, may benefit from improved competitiveness in U.S. markets. For forex traders, the key level to watch is the 1.3750 resistance zone; a break above that could open the door to the 1.3800 handle, while support sits near 1.3640. Broader Context The Canadian labor market has shown signs of cooling after a period of resilience. Wage growth, while still elevated, has moderated, and the services sector has been particularly weak. The data adds to a growing narrative that the Canadian economy is losing momentum, which could keep the loonie under pressure in the near term. Conclusion The March employment miss is a clear downside surprise for the Canadian dollar and reinforces expectations of a Bank of Canada rate cut. USD/CAD is likely to remain bid as long as the data continues to weaken, but traders should watch for any upward revisions or positive surprises in upcoming releases that could reverse the trend. FAQs Q1: Why did USD/CAD rise after the Canadian jobs data? The employment report missed expectations, suggesting the Canadian economy is weaker than anticipated. This raises the likelihood of a Bank of Canada interest rate cut, which tends to weaken the Canadian dollar relative to the U.S. dollar. Q2: What is the next key level for USD/CAD? The immediate resistance is around 1.3750. A sustained break above that level could target 1.3800. On the downside, support is seen near 1.3640, the level before the data release. Q3: How might this affect Canadian consumers? A weaker Canadian dollar makes imported goods more expensive, which could contribute to higher consumer prices. However, it benefits Canadian exporters by making their products cheaper in foreign markets. This post USD/CAD Rises as Canadian Jobs Data Misses Expectations, Pressuring the Loonie first appeared on BitcoinWorld .

8 May 2026, 15:36

ECB’s Lagarde Pushes Back on Euro Stablecoins, Warns of ‘Structural Weaknesses’

The European Central Bank chief says Europe "knows which port it is sailing to,” and it's not towards a euro stablecoin.

8 May 2026, 15:28

Bitcoin price reclaims $80K as traders defend key support zone

Bitcoin (BTC) price managed to reclaim the $80,000 mark ahead of the upcoming US inflation data releases after buyers stepped in near a key support zone during a sharp market selloff tied to geopolitical tensions and ETF outflows. According to TradingView data, Bitcoin recovered above $80,000 on Friday after briefly falling to an intraday low near $79,250, while CoinGlass data showed more than $289 million in liquidations hit leveraged crypto positions during the decline. The pullback came after reports of renewed tensions involving the US and Iran unsettled risk markets and pushed the S&P 500 away from recent record highs. Spot Bitcoin ETFs in the US also recorded $277.5 million in net outflows on Thursday, ending a five-day inflow streak worth nearly $1.7 billion, according to SoSoValue data. Farside Investors figures showed Fidelity’s Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund led the redemptions with $129 million in outflows, while BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust lost another $98 million. Despite the pressure, buyers defended the $78,000 to $79,000 range that several market analysts had identified as an important support area. According to crypto analyst Ted Pillows, Bitcoin needed to hold the zone for another bounce-back attempt, warning that a breakdown below it could trigger a deeper correction. https://twitter.com/TedPillows/status/2052672100381712876?s=20 Bitcoin later stabilised above that level as trading moved into the European and US sessions. Exchange supply trends added support to the recovery narrative. Market data cited by analysts showed nearly 100,000 BTC moved into private custody over the past 90 days, reducing exchange balances while institutional spot demand continued to absorb available supply. Analysts watch support levels as volatility risks remain The rebound came as traders processed April’s US Employment Situation report, which showed the economy added 115,000 jobs, above consensus estimates tracked by economists . The unemployment rate remained at 4.3%, according to Bureau of Labor Statistics data. QCP Capital said in its weekly report that perpetual swap markets are now pricing more than a 50% probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike by April 2027, while expectations for early rate cuts have been pushed further out despite Treasury yields easing slightly. Analysts at the firm tied the Fed outlook to persistent energy-driven inflation concerns following renewed uncertainty around the Strait of Hormuz and Middle East ceasefire negotiations. Nansen senior research analyst Jake Kennis said Bitcoin’s recovery above $81,000 had been driven largely by institutional spot buying and short liquidations rather than retail participation. Kennis added that funding rates remained relatively soft during the rally, while trading activity on HyperLiquid ahead of the payrolls report showed only modest positioning. Meanwhile, Bitget Wallet research analyst Lacie Zhang said pullbacks toward the $75,000 to $78,000 area remain possible if retail demand fails to strengthen. Technical analysts are continuing to monitor Bitcoin’s long-term structure after the latest bounce. Michaël van de Poppe said the recent retracement was not unexpected after several strong sessions higher and maintained that the trend could still support additional upside in the coming weeks as long as support levels remain intact. Van de Poppe later pointed to $76,000 as a key level that needed to hold. Fellow analyst, Rekt Capital, however, pointed out that Bitcoin was still trading between its 21-month and 50-month exponential moving averages after staging a relief rally from the lower macro support band. BTC/USD 1-month price chart. Source: Rekt Capital on X. The analyst noted that earlier market cycles saw Bitcoin spend extended periods between those levels before establishing a clearer trend direction. Investors are now watching upcoming US inflation readings, including the Consumer Price Index and Producer Price Index reports due next week, for further clues on interest rate expectations and risk appetite across crypto markets. The post Bitcoin price reclaims $80K as traders defend key support zone appeared first on Invezz

8 May 2026, 15:25

USD Under Pressure as Fed’s Focus Shifts to Inflation Path, Says TD Securities

BitcoinWorld USD Under Pressure as Fed’s Focus Shifts to Inflation Path, Says TD Securities The U.S. dollar’s recent trajectory is facing renewed scrutiny as analysts at TD Securities highlight a subtle but significant shift in the Federal Reserve’s communication priorities. According to the financial institution, the central bank’s focus is moving away from employment metrics and toward the path of inflation, a recalibration that could have notable implications for currency markets. Decoding the Fed’s New Emphasis TD Securities’ assessment comes amid a period of mixed economic data and evolving market expectations. The firm suggests that while the labor market remains a key variable, Fed officials are increasingly framing their policy decisions around the persistence and direction of price pressures. This pivot, they argue, is critical for understanding the central bank’s next moves and, consequently, the dollar’s valuation. For months, the narrative surrounding the Fed was dominated by the strength of the U.S. job market. However, with inflation proving stickier than anticipated in certain sectors, policymakers are now signaling that the path back to the 2% target will dictate the pace and timing of any policy easing. This subtle change in rhetoric could lead to a more hawkish stance if inflation does not continue to moderate. Implications for the Dollar From a currency market perspective, this shift is significant. A Fed that is more attentive to inflation risks is likely to keep interest rates higher for longer, which typically supports the dollar. However, TD Securities notes that the market may have already priced in a significant portion of this hawkish outlook. The real impact, they suggest, will come from the data itself. If upcoming inflation reports show signs of easing, the dollar could weaken as the market anticipates a more accommodative Fed. Conversely, stubbornly high inflation would reinforce the new focus and potentially strengthen the greenback. Market Context and Forward Guidance The analysis arrives as traders are closely watching for any deviations in Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s language during upcoming speeches. The market is currently pricing in a series of rate cuts starting later this year, but this timeline is heavily contingent on the inflation trajectory. TD Securities’ report serves as a reminder that the Fed’s reaction function is dynamic, and the primary variable has shifted. For investors, this means that inflation data releases will likely carry more weight for USD volatility than employment reports in the near term. Conclusion The Federal Reserve’s evolving focus, as highlighted by TD Securities, marks a critical juncture for the U.S. dollar. The currency’s direction will be increasingly tied to the path of inflation, making upcoming CPI and PCE reports key catalysts. While the labor market remains important, the primary narrative is now centered on price stability. Market participants should adjust their expectations accordingly, understanding that the Fed’s commitment to taming inflation could keep the dollar supported, but only as long as data warrants a cautious approach. FAQs Q1: What did TD Securities say about the Fed and the USD? TD Securities noted that the Federal Reserve’s focus is shifting from the labor market to the inflation path, which will be a key driver for the U.S. dollar’s future direction. Q2: How does a focus on inflation affect the dollar? A stronger focus on inflation typically suggests the Fed will keep interest rates higher for longer to combat price pressures, which can support a stronger U.S. dollar. Q3: Why is this shift in Fed focus important for traders? It means that future volatility in the USD will be more closely tied to inflation data releases (like CPI) rather than employment reports, changing how traders position themselves. This post USD Under Pressure as Fed’s Focus Shifts to Inflation Path, Says TD Securities first appeared on BitcoinWorld .

8 May 2026, 15:15

RBC: Canada’s Labour Market Headed for Gradual Improvement

BitcoinWorld RBC: Canada’s Labour Market Headed for Gradual Improvement Royal Bank of Canada (RBC) economists have signaled that Canada’s labour market is on a path toward gradual improvement, offering a measured but cautiously optimistic outlook for employment trends in the coming months. The assessment, based on recent employment data and economic indicators, suggests that while challenges remain, the trajectory is positive. What the Data Shows Canada’s job market has experienced a period of softening, with employment growth slowing and the unemployment rate edging higher over the past year. However, RBC’s analysis points to underlying strength in certain sectors, including professional services, healthcare, and construction. The bank’s economists note that wage growth has remained steady, providing support for consumer spending and overall economic activity. Why This Matters for Workers and Policymakers The labour market is a critical barometer of economic health. For Canadian workers, a gradual improvement means more stable job prospects and potential for wage gains. For the Bank of Canada, the trajectory of employment will be a key factor in determining the pace of interest rate adjustments. A stronger labour market could reduce the urgency for rate cuts, while persistent weakness might prompt further easing. Key Factors Driving the Outlook RBC’s forecast is underpinned by several factors: a resilient U.S. economy supporting Canadian exports, easing inflationary pressures, and a rebound in consumer confidence. However, risks remain, including elevated household debt, geopolitical uncertainties, and potential disruptions in global trade. The bank emphasizes that the improvement will likely be gradual rather than rapid, reflecting the cautious mood among businesses and consumers. Conclusion RBC’s analysis provides a balanced perspective on Canada’s labour market outlook. While the path to improvement is expected to be gradual, the direction is positive. For readers, this signals a period of steady, if unspectacular, economic recovery. Policymakers and investors will be watching upcoming employment reports closely for confirmation of this trend. FAQs Q1: What does ‘gradual improvement’ mean for Canadian workers? A1: It suggests that job growth will continue but at a moderate pace. Workers may see more stable employment opportunities and modest wage increases, but significant gains are unlikely in the near term. Q2: How does this affect the Bank of Canada’s interest rate decisions? A2: A gradually improving labour market reduces pressure on the Bank of Canada to cut rates aggressively. However, if the improvement stalls, the bank may consider easing policy to support employment. Q3: Which sectors are driving the improvement? A3: Professional services, healthcare, and construction are showing relative strength. Manufacturing and retail are more mixed, reflecting broader economic conditions. This post RBC: Canada’s Labour Market Headed for Gradual Improvement first appeared on BitcoinWorld .

8 May 2026, 15:05

GBP/USD Rises as US Dollar Weakens Despite Strong NFP Data

BitcoinWorld GBP/USD Rises as US Dollar Weakens Despite Strong NFP Data The British pound advanced against the US dollar on Friday, as the greenback slipped despite a stronger-than-expected US nonfarm payrolls (NFP) report. The GBP/USD pair climbed to session highs near 1.2700, reflecting a market that chose to focus on downward revisions to prior data and softer wage growth figures rather than the headline jobs number. Market Reaction to NFP Data The US economy added 272,000 jobs in May, significantly above the consensus estimate of 185,000, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. However, the unemployment rate ticked up to 4.0% from 3.9%, and average hourly earnings rose 0.4% month-over-month, slightly above expectations. The initial dollar strength faded quickly as traders parsed the details. Revisions to the previous two months’ payroll figures subtracted a net 15,000 jobs from the earlier reported totals, dampening some of the enthusiasm around the headline beat. The market interpreted the data as consistent with a gradual cooling in the labor market, which reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve could begin cutting interest rates later this year. Pound Resilience Amid Mixed Signals The pound’s resilience also reflected domestic factors. The Bank of England has maintained a cautious stance on rate cuts, with policymakers emphasizing persistent inflation pressures in the services sector. Markets are pricing in a first rate cut from the BoE in August or September, later than the Fed’s expected timeline, providing a relative yield advantage for sterling. Additionally, the UK economy has shown signs of recovery from the mild recession recorded in the second half of 2023. Recent PMI data and retail sales figures have beaten expectations, supporting the narrative that the UK is emerging from its economic slump faster than previously anticipated. Technical Levels and Trader Sentiment From a technical perspective, GBP/USD is testing resistance near the 1.2700 level, a zone that has capped upside attempts in recent weeks. A decisive break above this level could open the path toward 1.2800, while support sits at 1.2600 and then 1.2550. The pair remains within a broader range that has held since mid-April. CFTC data showed speculative net long positions on the pound have increased modestly, indicating that traders are cautiously bullish. However, positioning remains well below the extremes seen earlier in the year, suggesting room for further upside if fundamental catalysts align. Conclusion The GBP/USD pair’s advance despite a strong NFP report highlights the nuanced market reaction to labor market data that shows a mixed picture. The dollar’s inability to hold gains suggests that the market is increasingly focused on the direction of Fed policy rather than a single data point. For the pound, the combination of a relatively hawkish Bank of England and improving UK economic data provides a supportive backdrop. Traders will watch next week’s US CPI release and the Bank of England meeting for further direction. FAQs Q1: Why did the US Dollar weaken after a strong NFP report? The dollar initially rose but then weakened as traders focused on downward revisions to prior months’ jobs data and a slight uptick in the unemployment rate. These details suggested the labor market is cooling, reinforcing expectations that the Fed may cut rates later this year. Q2: What is supporting the British pound currently? The pound is supported by the Bank of England’s cautious stance on rate cuts, improving UK economic data including PMI and retail sales, and a relative yield advantage over the US dollar as markets expect the Fed to cut rates before the BoE. Q3: What key levels should traders watch in GBP/USD? Key resistance is at 1.2700, with a break above targeting 1.2800. Support levels are at 1.2600 and 1.2550. The pair has been trading in a range since mid-April. This post GBP/USD Rises as US Dollar Weakens Despite Strong NFP Data first appeared on BitcoinWorld .