hodler

11 May 2026, 05:12

Can Bitcoin Price Remain Above $81K as Russia-Ukraine War End Odds Hit 99%?

Bitcoin price has traded near $81,300 today as buyers weighed on improving on-chain signals, cautious derivatives positioning, and renewed geopolitical developments tied to Russia, Ukraine, and Iran. At press time, the bulls were still in control trading at $81,357, up about 0.7% to 1% over 24 hours. According to Coincodex, in the last 24 hours, it has fluctuated between roughly $80,552 and $81,489, keeping price action inside a narrow band above the closely watched $80,000 level. The move came as Polymarket odds for a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by the end of 2026 showed a probability above 99%, up 49%. Concurrently, Russian President Vladimir Putin also said he believed the war was “coming to an end” while broader negotiations remained unresolved. Source: Polymarket Bitcoin traders are watching whether the asset can remain above the $80,000 to $81,000 zone. Analysts have described this range as a short-term decision area after Bitcoin failed to hold a recent move toward $83,000. Bitcoin Price Holds Above Key Support Zone Technical analysts continue to focus on the low-$80,000 area. A sustained hold above this range could support another attempt toward higher resistance, while a clean loss may trigger a retest of support below $80,000. Some traders are watching the bull market support band, made up of two moving averages sitting just below $80,000. That zone has acted as a reversal area during recent pullbacks. Cryptic Trades said a short-term pullback toward the support band remains possible after Bitcoin rejected near higher-timeframe resistance. The analyst said the bullish case remains valid as long as Bitcoin holds above that support and the broader $75,000 region, which aligns with the April bottoming structure. Source: X Subsequently, Bitcoin’s recent move above the support band was not yet a clean breakout. Analysts note the price would need to clear the low-$80,000 area and hold there for one to two weeks to confirm stronger momentum. On-Chain Data Shows Capital Returning On-chain data also points to improving capital flows. Analyst Darkfost said Bitcoin’s realized cap has moved back into positive monthly growth at about 0.25%, after falling 2.6% in February. The realised cap tracks the value of coins based on their last movement price. It is often used to assess whether capital is entering or leaving the Bitcoin market. During the earlier correction, investors who bought at higher prices realized losses, pushing the realized cap lower. Darkfost said the recent recovery suggests capital is beginning to return, though the signal is still early. Source: X Other market data shows mixed trader positioning. Binance top traders remain bearish overall, according to analyst CW, but the long-position ratio has been rising quickly. CW also pointed to a possible golden cross between Bitcoin’s MVRV ratio and its 200-day EMA, describing it as a bullish trend-reversal signal. Geopolitical Shifts Add Macro Pressure to Bitcoin Bitcoin’s move above $81,000 is unfolding as markets monitor two major geopolitical tracks. The first is the Russia-Ukraine war, where Putin’s latest comments have added attention to ceasefire odds and possible risk-on flows. Putin said he believes the war may be nearing an end, but broader negotiations remain unresolved. Russia and Ukraine continue to report attacks, and disputes remain over territory, NATO membership and security guarantees. The second track is Iran. Tehran has formally submitted its final response to the U.S. proposal through Pakistan, according to IRNA. The negotiations are focused on ending the war, while Iran has said nuclear issues are not part of the current talks. Iran has maintained that nuclear matters would need a separate agreement after the conflict ends. President Masoud Pezeshkian, however, has said dialogue does not mean surrender or retreat, adding that Iran would defend national interests while engaging in talks. President Donald Trump has insisted the war will not end without a nuclear deal, according to the provided reports. He also warned Iran against refusing the current proposal, raising market attention around the risk of renewed escalation. The Strait of Hormuz remains a major concern for traders because of its role in global energy flows. Any fresh disruption could raise oil prices, keep inflation concerns active and pressure risk assets. For Bitcoin, the geopolitical backdrop is mixed. A clearer path toward peace in Ukraine could support demand for risk assets, while tension around Iran and Hormuz could keep markets defensive.

11 May 2026, 05:05

EUR/JPY Price Forecast: Testing Key 50-day EMA Barrier Near 185.00

BitcoinWorld EUR/JPY Price Forecast: Testing Key 50-day EMA Barrier Near 185.00 The EUR/JPY currency pair is currently testing a significant technical barrier as it approaches the 50-day exponential moving average (EMA) near the 185.00 level. This development has drawn the attention of forex traders and analysts, as the 50-day EMA often acts as a dynamic support or resistance point, influencing short- to medium-term trends. Technical Context and Key Levels The 50-day EMA near 185.00 has historically served as a pivotal zone for EUR/JPY. A sustained break above this level could signal a shift toward bullish momentum, potentially opening the path toward the next resistance at 186.50 or higher. Conversely, a rejection from this level may reinforce the current bearish bias, with initial support found at the 184.00 psychological mark and further downside toward the 200-day EMA near 182.50. Volume and price action in recent sessions suggest that the market is consolidating around this key moving average. Traders are closely watching for a decisive close above or below the 50-day EMA to confirm the next directional move. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is hovering near neutral territory, indicating that there is room for movement in either direction without being overbought or oversold. Fundamental Drivers and Market Implications The test of the 50-day EMA comes amid a mixed fundamental backdrop. The euro has been influenced by European Central Bank policy expectations, while the yen remains sensitive to Bank of Japan monetary stance and broader risk sentiment. Diverging interest rate outlooks between the Eurozone and Japan continue to be a primary driver for the pair. For forex traders, the 185.00 area represents a decision point. A break higher could encourage further euro buying, while a failure to break through may lead to renewed yen strength. This level is particularly important for those trading range-bound strategies or looking for breakout opportunities. What This Means for Traders The current technical setup requires careful risk management. Traders should watch for confirmation signals such as a daily close above or below the 50-day EMA, accompanied by an increase in trading volume. False breakouts are common around major moving averages, so patience is advised. The broader trend remains mixed, and the 185.00 level will likely determine the pair’s direction in the coming sessions. Conclusion EUR/JPY is at a critical juncture as it tests the 50-day EMA near 185.00. The outcome of this test will provide important clues about the pair’s next major move. Traders should monitor price action closely around this level, as a confirmed breakout or rejection could set the tone for weeks ahead. As always, combining technical analysis with an awareness of fundamental developments will be key to navigating this market. FAQs Q1: Why is the 50-day EMA important for EUR/JPY? The 50-day EMA is a widely followed technical indicator that smooths out price data to show the average price over the last 50 days. It often acts as a dynamic support or resistance level, and a break above or below it can signal a change in trend momentum. Q2: What happens if EUR/JPY breaks above 185.00? A sustained break above 185.00 could indicate bullish momentum, with the next resistance levels around 186.50 and potentially higher. It would also suggest that buyers are in control in the short term. Q3: What factors could cause EUR/JPY to reverse from this level? A reversal could be triggered by a rejection at the 50-day EMA, a strengthening yen due to safe-haven demand, or unexpected policy shifts from the European Central Bank or Bank of Japan. Traders often wait for a daily close below 184.00 to confirm a bearish reversal. This post EUR/JPY Price Forecast: Testing Key 50-day EMA Barrier Near 185.00 first appeared on BitcoinWorld .

11 May 2026, 04:30

Bitcoin wallet dormant since 2013 moves 500 BTC worth $40 million

A Bitcoin wallet that hadn’t been used for 12.5 years transferred 500 BTC last Sunday, May 10, amounting to around $40 million in crypto for the first time since November 2013. A #BitcoinOG (1KAA8G) moved 500 $BTC ($40.62M) out 4 hours ago after 12+ years of inactivity. This OG received the 500 $BTC 12 years ago, when $BTC was ~$914. He is now sitting on a profit of $40.17M — an 88x return. https://t.co/kN1yipYyIP pic.twitter.com/6PmdSigRp9 — Lookonchain (@lookonchain) May 10, 2026 The wallet was created on November 27, 2013. It moved its full balance at block height 948,822. Bitcoin traded at about $923 when the coins were received. The stash was worth about $461,500 at the time. With Bitcoin now trading between $80,500 and $82,458, its value has risen roughly 87-fold. The transfer was not isolated This transaction is a component of a larger pattern of dormant wallets becoming active again. On May 10, between blocks 948,694 and 948,822, wallets created between 2013 and 2017 transferred 859.13 BTC, equivalent to roughly $69.47 million in total. There were six transactions totaling 319.13 BTC from wallets that received funds way back in 2017. There were also four transactions totaling 10 BTC each carried out by wallets created in 2014. This suggests a larger trend of old Bitcoin stock coming alive in 2026. As Cryptopolitan reported in October, Bitcoin’s revived supply hit roughly $2.9 billion per day, the second-highest level ever, with the average age of spent coins rising from 26 days in early 2023 to about 100 days by October 2025. Bitcoin prices did not show signs of panic selling after the transfer became public. Also, Blockchain data has not yet shown the recent 500 BTC entering any known exchange deposit address. Why dormant wallet movements matter In January, Cryptopolitan reported that a 2010-era miner wallet moved 2,000 BTC, worth nearly $200 million, to Coinbase. In September 2025 , another wallet that had been dormant for 12 years moved 1,000 BTC, worth about $116 million, ahead of a Federal Reserve rate decision. A wallet linked to early Bitcoin investor Owen Gunden sold about 11,000 BTC across multiple transactions, The Block reported in March. The sales were worth more than $1 billion. For the May 10 wallet, the next transaction will be the most important one. If the coins stay in private wallets, then the transaction might only be about custody changes. However, should they go to an exchange, it might be interpreted by traders as potential selling pressure. Don’t just read crypto news. Understand it. Subscribe to our newsletter. It's free .

11 May 2026, 04:15

US Dollar Index Advances as Trump and Iran Dismiss Latest Peace Initiatives

BitcoinWorld US Dollar Index Advances as Trump and Iran Dismiss Latest Peace Initiatives The US Dollar Index (DXY) moved higher on Wednesday after both former President Donald Trump and Iranian officials publicly dismissed the latest round of peace initiatives aimed at de-escalating tensions in the Middle East. The diplomatic setback triggered a renewed flight to safe-haven assets, with the greenback gaining ground against a basket of major currencies. Geopolitical Stalemate Fuels Safe-Haven Demand The dollar’s advance came after reports emerged that indirect talks mediated by Oman had failed to produce a breakthrough. Trump, in a statement, described the proposals as “unacceptable,” while Iranian Foreign Ministry spokespersons characterized the conditions as “non-starters.” The lack of progress rekindled uncertainty over energy supply routes and broader regional stability, prompting investors to rotate out of risk-sensitive currencies like the euro and the Australian dollar. Analysts noted that the DXY, which measures the dollar against six major peers, rose approximately 0.3% in afternoon trading, recovering from earlier losses. The index has remained sensitive to headline risk from the Middle East, where any sign of escalation typically strengthens the dollar’s safe-haven appeal. Market Implications and Broader Context The failed peace initiatives come at a time when global currency markets are already navigating a complex environment of divergent central bank policies and slowing economic growth in China. The dollar’s strength could add pressure on emerging market currencies, many of which have already weakened against the greenback in recent weeks. “The market was pricing in a small chance of a diplomatic breakthrough, and when that didn’t materialize, we saw a quick repositioning,” said a senior currency strategist at a London-based investment bank. “The dollar remains the primary beneficiary of geopolitical uncertainty, especially when energy markets are involved.” What This Means for Traders and Investors For traders, the immediate takeaway is that the dollar is likely to remain supported as long as diplomatic channels remain closed. The DXY’s next resistance level is around 105.50, a threshold it has tested multiple times in recent months. A break above that could signal further gains, particularly if oil prices also rise in response to the geopolitical backdrop. Investors with exposure to international equities or emerging market debt should monitor the dollar’s trajectory closely, as a sustained rally could reduce returns on foreign assets when converted back to local currencies. Conclusion The dismissal of peace initiatives by both the Trump camp and Iran has removed a key source of potential stability in the Middle East, reinforcing the dollar’s position as a safe-haven currency. While the immediate market reaction was measured, the underlying geopolitical risk remains elevated, and the DXY is likely to stay sensitive to further diplomatic developments—or the lack thereof. FAQs Q1: What is the US Dollar Index (DXY)? The US Dollar Index (DXY) is a measure of the value of the US dollar relative to a basket of six major foreign currencies: the euro, Japanese yen, British pound, Canadian dollar, Swedish krona, and Swiss franc. It is widely used as a benchmark for the dollar’s overall strength in global markets. Q2: Why does geopolitical tension strengthen the US dollar? During periods of geopolitical uncertainty, investors tend to move capital into assets perceived as safe havens, such as US Treasury bonds and the US dollar. The dollar benefits from the size and liquidity of the US financial system, making it a preferred store of value when risks rise elsewhere. Q3: How might the failed peace initiatives affect oil prices? The Middle East is a critical region for global oil production and transit. When peace initiatives fail and tensions remain high, markets often price in a higher risk of supply disruptions. This can push oil prices higher, which in turn can support the dollar through increased demand for US energy exports and broader risk aversion. This post US Dollar Index Advances as Trump and Iran Dismiss Latest Peace Initiatives first appeared on BitcoinWorld .

11 May 2026, 04:10

USD/CHF Rises to 0.7785 as Prospects for US-Iran Truce Diminish

BitcoinWorld USD/CHF Rises to 0.7785 as Prospects for US-Iran Truce Diminish The USD/CHF pair extended its upward move on Wednesday, trading near 0.7785, as market expectations for a near-term truce between the United States and Iran weakened. The Swiss franc, traditionally a safe-haven currency, lost ground against the US dollar as geopolitical tensions resurfaced, prompting investors to favor the greenback. Geopolitical Uncertainty Fuels Dollar Demand Reports from diplomatic channels suggest that negotiations aimed at de-escalating tensions between Washington and Tehran have stalled in recent days. The lack of progress has reduced hopes for a swift resolution, leading to renewed risk aversion in global markets. The US dollar benefited from this shift, gaining across the board, while the Swiss franc—often bought during times of stability—saw reduced demand. Analysts note that the USD/CHF pair is highly sensitive to geopolitical developments in the Middle East. Any perceived setback in diplomatic efforts tends to strengthen the dollar at the expense of the franc, as traders reassess risk premiums. The move to 0.7785 represents a notable recovery from recent lows, underscoring the market’s reaction to the fading truce narrative. Market Context and Technical Levels The pair’s climb comes after a period of consolidation, with traders now watching key resistance levels near 0.7800. A sustained break above this level could open the door for further gains, depending on how geopolitical events unfold. On the downside, support is seen around 0.7750, a level that held firm during earlier sessions. Broader market sentiment remains cautious. While the US dollar has gained traction, other safe-haven assets such as gold have also seen mixed flows, indicating that investors are not uniformly bullish on the greenback. The Swiss franc’s decline appears more closely tied to the specific US-Iran dynamic than to a broad shift in risk appetite. Implications for Forex Traders For forex traders, the current environment underscores the importance of monitoring geopolitical headlines. The USD/CHF pair is likely to remain volatile in the near term, with any new developments in US-Iran talks capable of triggering sharp reversals. Traders should also consider the broader macroeconomic backdrop, including interest rate differentials and central bank policy signals from both the Federal Reserve and the Swiss National Bank. Conclusion The USD/CHF pair’s rise to 0.7785 reflects fading optimism for a quick US-Iran truce, reinforcing the dollar’s safe-haven appeal over the Swiss franc. While the move is significant, the pair’s direction remains heavily dependent on diplomatic progress. Investors should stay attuned to official statements and negotiation updates, as the current trend could reverse rapidly if talks resume. For now, the market is pricing in a higher probability of prolonged geopolitical uncertainty. FAQs Q1: Why does the USD/CHF pair rise when US-Iran truce hopes fade? The US dollar is often seen as a safe-haven currency during geopolitical uncertainty. When truce hopes fade, investors favor the dollar over the Swiss franc, driving the USD/CHF pair higher. Q2: What is the key resistance level for USD/CHF right now? The immediate resistance level is near 0.7800. A break above this level could signal further upside momentum, depending on ongoing geopolitical developments. Q3: How should traders approach USD/CHF trading given the current news? Traders should closely monitor US-Iran negotiation updates, as the pair is highly sensitive to geopolitical headlines. Using stop-loss orders and staying informed on diplomatic progress is advisable to manage volatility. This post USD/CHF Rises to 0.7785 as Prospects for US-Iran Truce Diminish first appeared on BitcoinWorld .

11 May 2026, 03:35

China Extends Gold Buying Streak, Hong Kong ETFs Surge to Records

BitcoinWorld China Extends Gold Buying Streak, Hong Kong ETFs Surge to Records China’s central bank has extended its gold purchasing campaign for a ninth consecutive month, a move that has propelled gold exchange-traded funds (ETFs) listed in Hong Kong to record highs. The sustained buying spree underscores Beijing’s strategic push to diversify its foreign exchange reserves away from the US dollar and bolster its financial security amid ongoing geopolitical tensions. PBOC’s Unbroken Buying Streak The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) added another tranche of gold to its reserves in recent weeks, continuing a pattern that began in late 2023. According to official data, China’s gold reserves now stand at approximately 2,280 tonnes, placing it among the world’s largest holders of the precious metal. This steady accumulation has been a key driver behind the broader rally in gold prices, which have climbed over 15% in the past year. The PBOC’s strategy is widely seen as a hedge against currency volatility and a move to reduce reliance on US Treasury securities. As US-China trade and technology competition intensifies, Beijing has increasingly turned to gold as a ‘safe haven’ asset that is not subject to Western sanctions or political pressure. Hong Kong Gold ETFs Hit New Peaks The impact of China’s buying spree has been most visible in Hong Kong’s financial markets. Several gold-backed ETFs listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange have hit all-time highs in recent trading sessions, reflecting surging investor demand. The largest of these funds, the Hang Seng Gold ETF, has seen net inflows of over $500 million in the last quarter alone. Analysts attribute the record-breaking performance to a combination of factors: the PBOC’s persistent purchases, a weakening US dollar, and rising global uncertainty. ‘Hong Kong serves as a gateway for Chinese capital to access gold markets, and the current rally is a direct reflection of both official and retail demand,’ said a senior commodities strategist at a Hong Kong-based investment bank. What This Means for Investors For individual investors, the continued rally in gold ETFs presents both opportunity and caution. While the trend remains bullish, driven by central bank buying and macroeconomic uncertainty, some analysts warn that gold prices may be entering overbought territory. The metal’s price has risen sharply in a short period, and a short-term correction is possible if the PBOC signals a slowdown in its purchases. However, the long-term outlook remains positive. Central banks globally, not just China, have been net buyers of gold for the past two years, a trend that provides a solid floor under prices. For investors in Hong Kong, gold ETFs offer a liquid and regulated way to gain exposure to the precious metal without the need for physical storage. Conclusion China’s unbroken gold buying spree is reshaping the global gold market and sending Hong Kong-listed ETFs to record levels. The PBOC’s strategy reflects a broader geopolitical shift toward de-dollarization and financial self-reliance. For now, the momentum shows no signs of slowing, and gold remains a central pillar of China’s reserve management strategy. FAQs Q1: Why is China buying so much gold? China is diversifying its foreign exchange reserves away from the US dollar to reduce exposure to geopolitical risks and sanctions. Gold provides a stable, non-political store of value that enhances financial security. Q2: How does China’s gold buying affect Hong Kong ETFs? The PBOC’s purchases drive up global gold prices, which directly increases the net asset value of gold-backed ETFs. Additionally, Chinese investors often use Hong Kong markets to access gold investments, boosting demand for these funds. Q3: Is it a good time to invest in gold ETFs? Gold has strong fundamental support from central bank buying and global uncertainty, but prices are at elevated levels. Investors should consider their risk tolerance and time horizon. Long-term holders may benefit, but short-term volatility is possible. This post China Extends Gold Buying Streak, Hong Kong ETFs Surge to Records first appeared on BitcoinWorld .