hodler

10 May 2026, 21:30

Iran sends response to U.S. ceasefire proposal as oil and crypto markets watch closely

Iran has delivered its response to a U.S. ceasefire proposal through Pakistani mediators. This development adds a new layer of uncertainty for global markets. The proposal was designed to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and restart discussions on Iran’s nuclear program, reports The Guardian. After the response was passed to Pakistan, it was forwarded to Washington. Tehran did not reveal the contents of its reply. Investors are on the lookout for interest rates The tensions between Iran, Israel, and U.S.-aligned forces have affected energy markets since February. Oil traders, in turn, have been watching supply risks, inflation pressures, and related interest rates. Higher oil prices trigger inflation concerns, delaying Federal Reserve rate cuts. Lower rates generally support risk assets by improving liquidity. Investors are more drawn to higher-growth trades such as technology stocks and cryptocurrencies. Andrew Slimmon, head of Applied Equity Advisors at Morgan Stanley Investment Management, said markets warn that monetary policy could shift quickly if the conflict cools. “If that’s in the next couple weeks, then it could be by the end of this year,” Slimmon told Business Insider, referring to potential Fed rate cuts. Futures markets may expect the Federal Reserve to have elevated rates with stronger-than-expected U.S. economic data. Bitcoin has increasingly traded like a macro-sensitive risk asset. So, this developing scenario could affect BTC and crypto prices. During the 2023 U.S. regional banking crisis, Bitcoin climbed more than 35% in a month as traders anticipated easier financial conditions. In contrast, Bitcoin lost more than 60% during 2022 as inflation and aggressive rate hikes hit speculative markets worldwide. Research from crypto analytics firms such as Kaiko has also shown Bitcoin maintaining a relatively strong correlation with the Nasdaq during major macro-driven market swings. Tensions remain high across the Gulf Despite the diplomatic developments, signs of instability continue to emerge across the region. The UAE and Kuwait both reported intercepting drones that entered their airspace, according to The Guardian coverage of Gulf incidents. Elsewhere, a drone strike caused a fire aboard a ship near Qatar’s coast, while another attack targeted a camp used by an Iranian Kurdish rebel group near Erbil in northern Iraq. The incidents followed the collapse of President Donald Trump’s “Project Freedom” convoy operation on May 4, an effort aimed at escorting commercial vessels through the Gulf after weeks of disruption near Hormuz. According to The Guardian, the operation was abandoned after attacks targeted U.S. naval assets and oil infrastructure in the UAE. Iranian military officials have also warned that countries enforcing sanctions could face consequences when their vessels move through the Strait of Hormuz. Nuclear tensions still unresolved Benjamin Netanyahu has continued to argue that the conflict cannot fully end while Iran retains its stockpile of highly enriched uranium. The International Atomic Energy Agency estimates Iran possesses roughly 440 kilograms of uranium enriched to 60% purity, according to The Guardian. President Donald Trump struck a more measured tone during an interview on Full Measure. “We have it surveilled,” Trump said. “If anybody got near the place, we will know about it, and we’ll blow them up.” The difference in approach between Trump and Netanyahu affects future negotiations, especially as Iran continues to upgrade its nuclear infrastructure. Why crypto traders are paying attention The core issue with crypto markets is liquidity. As oil prices stabilize, there is less inflation pressure. This could revive future Fed rate cuts and improve conditions for risk assets. On-chain data has shown traders drawn into stablecoins during uncertainty. They move back into Bitcoin and other volatile assets after conditions stabilize. Trump will visit China as Beijing continues to push for de-escalation and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Whether Iran’s response moves negotiations forward or deepens the standoff will likely shape sentiment across oil, equities, and crypto markets heading into the summer. The smartest crypto minds already read our newsletter. Want in? Join them .

10 May 2026, 19:30

Whale's Insight: Will Strategy Sell Bitcoin? Q1 2026 Earnings Highlights

Summary Strategy posted a $12.54B Q1 loss and broke its "never sell" narrative. Q1 AI earnings split into a clear pattern: AMD +16%, Alphabet +10%, SanDisk +500% YTD. Rigid supply meets inelastic demand. April delivered roughly $2B in net spot Bitcoin ETF inflows, the strongest month of 2026. May opened with four consecutive trading days of buying that lifted BTC from the $67K range to above $81K. BTC's break above $80K on May 4 triggered $302M in crypto shorts liquidated, four times the longs. Short positions are stacked above current price. Spot demand must take over from leverage for the rally to extend. Strategy (MSTR) just broke its "never sell" pledge after a $12.54B Q1 loss, while Q1 AI earnings produced one repeatable formula: rigid supply, inelastic demand, +500% returns. April delivered $2B in net Bitcoin ETF inflows, the strongest month of 2026, and May opened with four straight days of buying that pushed BTC from $67K to above $81K. Can spot demand carry BTC past the wall of shorts above $82K? Strategy Breaks "Never Sell," AI Stocks Break Records Strategy: The End of "Never Sell" Strategy's Q1 2026 results show 818,334 BTC holdings and a $12.54 billion net loss driven by $14.46 billion in unrealized BTC markdowns under mark-to-market accounting. The headline that matters: In the earnings call, both Michael Saylor and CEO Phong Le openly acknowledged the company may sell BTC to fund preferred dividends, dismantling the "never sell" narrative the company itself had built. On Polymarket, the probability of "MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026" surged roughly to 48% after the earnings call, with over $23 million in total volume traded. STRC is the catalyst forcing this pivot. Strategy's preferred share, STRC, has scaled to $8.5 billion in nine months, with an 11.5% annualized dividend yield, and the company has proposed moving payments from monthly to semi-monthly. Faith doesn't pay interest. Preferred stock does. These fixed cash obligations force the toolkit to evolve: when MSTR's premium narrows, issuing more common stock dilutes "BTC per share," while selling a small portion of appreciated BTC to fund dividends can actually preserve it. What this means for the industry and for BTC？ Strategy is shifting from a "BTC accumulation machine" to a "BTC-collateralized financial platform," using its bitcoin as base collateral and engineering different yield, volatility, and credit products for different pools of capital. If this model proves out, it changes how institutions hold BTC: not as a passive long-duration asset, but as a productive balance sheet input. A single entity holding 3.9% of the total Bitcoin supply is a market amplifier. When it shifts from "never sell" to "sell when accretive," the implications cut both ways: In a healthy market, Strategy's expanding product suite channels more institutional and retail capital into BTC exposure, reinforcing demand. Its holders are largely Bitcoin believers, and the platform's growth translates into a structural bid for Bitcoin. In a fragile liquidity environment, the moments when Strategy is most likely to sell BTC to meet fixed obligations are precisely the moments when the market can least absorb the selling. That creates a reflexive feedback loop: weakness triggers selling, selling amplifies weakness. AI Earnings: The Supply-Demand Formula Behind +500% The S&P 500 has continued to print record highs into May, supported by Q1 2026 earnings season delivering 27.1% blended EPS growth. But the real outperformance concentrated in a handful of names: AMD (AMD) : +16% the day after earnings. AI chip demand far exceeds supply. Alphabet (GOOG) : +10% on the week. Google Cloud revenue +63% YoY to $20 billion. SanDisk (SNDK) : +500% YTD, +12% post-earnings. EPS $23.41 vs $14.66 expected. NAND contract prices rose roughly 60% in Q1 as AI data centers absorbed supply. Their alpha shares the exact same source: AI demand growth outpacing supply expansion equals pricing power equals earnings elasticity that consensus cannot model fast enough. The pattern is migrating down the supply chain. In 2024, the bottleneck was GPUs. In 2025, it shifted to storage and high-bandwidth memory. In 2026, the same supply-demand imbalance is now spreading to three new layers of AI physical infrastructure: Advanced chip packaging : capacity to assemble chips and memory together is sold out High-speed interconnects: data movement between GPUs cannot keep up with compute growth Power and cooling: data center heat density has outgrown air cooling, forcing structural migration to liquid cooling and dedicated power solutions These segments today carry a fraction of the market attention and valuation that GPUs and memory enjoy, yet the structural logic driving their pricing power is identical. So where is the next +500% YTD? Not in the names already trading at AI-leader multiples. The answer sits in the layer where supply is most rigid, demand is most elastic, and the market has yet to fully reprice. ETF Inflows Lead, Price Follows April was the strongest month for U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF inflows in 2026, with net inflows totaling approximately $2 billion across the month and reversing the persistent outflow pattern that dominated Q1. May opened with four consecutive days of net inflows. The first three sessions set the tone: +$629.73 million on May 1, +$532.21 million on May 4, and +$467.35 million on May 5. IBIT and FBTC continued to dominate, together capturing over 60% of total net inflows. The correlation between ETF flows and BTC price action remains remarkably tight. Through April and early May, BTC rallied from the $67,000 range to above $81,000 in lockstep with sustained inflow streaks, and pulled back when flows reversed. Behind the ETF flow headline, on-chain data points to a structural tightening of supply. Over the past six months, the number of whale addresses holding 1,000 BTC or more has increased by 142. Corporate accumulators continue to absorb supply at scale: Strategy holds 818,334 BTC, while newer entrants like Strive Inc. have pushed past 15,000 BTC. ETF daily inflows average roughly $300 million per session, representing just 1–2% of Bitcoin's $20–40 billion daily spot volume. But the nature of this demand matters more than its size. ETF buying is incremental new capital sourced from outside the crypto-native ecosystem, not recycled volume between existing holders. Each dollar of ETF inflow translates directly into BTC removed from circulating spot supply. Capital is moving in one direction: ETF inflows leading from the front, corporate treasuries accumulating behind them, and available supply compressing from both sides. Shorts Keep Getting Squeezed BTC cleared $80,000 on May 4 for the first time since late January, and the derivatives market paid the price. Over $150 million in shorts were liquidated in a single hour, with 24-hour total crypto liquidations reaching $370 million. Short positions accounted for $302 million of the total, a 4:1 ratio against longs. Entering the session, Binance futures showed a long/short ratio of 37.2% vs 62.8%, one of the most lopsided bearish setups in months. One Hyperliquid trader closed a 700 BTC short at a $1.94 million loss, erasing profits from 11 consecutive winning trades in a single exit. The squeeze did not come out of nowhere. As the OI-weighted funding rate chart shows, funding had been predominantly negative from early April through early May, meaning shorts were paying longs daily to maintain positions. Each time spot demand pushed price through a resistance level, those accumulated short positions became forced exits, turning a directional move into a self-reinforcing cascade. Resistance Ahead: Where the Next Squeeze Could Trigger $82,236: liquidation price for a $20.3 million 40x short on Hyperliquid (250 BTC) $83,600: convergence of the 200-day EMA and a long-term trend line $84,000–$85,000: the upper resistance band. Polymarket prices a 56% probability of BTC reaching $85,000 in May BTC futures open interest has since recovered from its May 1 low of 707K BTC to 763K BTC, with funding rates flipping from negative to slightly positive, suggesting the market is re-entering but not yet overheated. Week Ahead May 11: Senate confirmation vote on Kevin Warsh as 17th Fed Chair May 11–14: Senate Banking Committee CLARITY Act markup (earliest window) May 12: U.S. April CPI May 13: U.S. April PPI Back-to-back CPI and PPI releases will define the inflation narrative Warsh inherits. If core inflation re-accelerates, Warsh starts with zero dovish room on day one, pressuring leveraged crypto positioning directly. The CLARITY Act reached a key milestone when the Tillis-Alsobrooks compromise cleared the bill's biggest remaining sticking point on stablecoin yield provisions, but it still needs 60 votes on the Senate floor to pass. Disclaimer: The information provided herein does not constitute investment advice, financial advice, trading advice, or any other sort of advice, and should not be treated as such. All content set out below is for informational purposes only. Original Post

10 May 2026, 15:51

Bitcoin holds firm above $80,000 ahead of CPI data

🚀 Bitcoin finished the week above $80,000, holding strong despite low weekend activity. Investors are watching whether $BTC will break support or sustain current levels. 📈 Critical data: Upcoming US inflation figures may spark sharp market moves. Continue Reading: Bitcoin holds firm above $80,000 ahead of CPI data The post Bitcoin holds firm above $80,000 ahead of CPI data appeared first on COINTURK NEWS .

10 May 2026, 14:00

Nearly 80% Of Bitcoin Supply Hasn’t Moved As Long-Term Holders Tighten Grip

Bitcoin has climbed above a key price zone that analysts had flagged as a major obstacle — and that move is drawing fresh attention to who actually holds the coin. Related Reading: Swiss Bitcoin Reserve Effort Withdrawn After Resistance From Central Bank Long-Term Holders Absorb More Supply Around 830,000 BTC has left short-term trader wallets in recent months, pushing the share of Bitcoin held by long-term addresses to 78%, up from 74% in the previous cycle. Data from on-chain tracking account Alphractal shows the shift is one of the largest recorded in recent memory. As more supply gets locked away in long-term wallets, the amount available for active trading keeps shrinking. That tightening supply tends to work in favor of prices during periods of steady demand. When fewer coins are circulating, selling pressure during price dips tends to be weaker. Reports indicate that long-term holders have been absorbing supply consistently relative to price movements, which has contributed to thinner liquidity across the market. 𝟳𝟴.𝟯% 𝗼𝗳 𝗕𝗧𝗖 𝘀𝘂𝗽𝗽𝗹𝘆 𝗶𝘀 𝗻𝗼𝘄 𝗳𝗿𝗼𝘇𝗲𝗻 𝗶𝗻 𝗹𝗼𝗻𝗴-𝘁𝗲𝗿𝗺 𝗵𝗮𝗻𝗱𝘀. 𝗨𝗽 𝗳𝗿𝗼𝗺 𝟳𝟰.𝟭%. That 4.2 percentage-point shift = roughly 830,000 BTC migrated from short-term to long-term cohort over the cycle. STH conviction is crumbling, LTH conviction… pic.twitter.com/aL8pTSk3Js — Alphractal (@Alphractal) May 9, 2026 Price Structure Points To A Range With High Stakes Bitcoin recently broke through a resistance zone between $78,000 and $80,000 — a range that had acted as a bearish block. According to an analyst, that zone has now flipped to support, and the next target to the upside sits at $90,000. But the setup carries risk on both sides. If that newly established support level fails to hold, a pullback toward $68,000 — and possibly as low as $60,000 — becomes a real possibility. Reports note that tighter liquidity zones increase the chance of sharp moves at key price levels, making the $78,000 area especially critical for short-term direction. A rejection at $82,000 could also be enough to swing momentum back toward the bears, according to the same analysis. Higher Timeframe Still Shows Caution Zooming out, the picture is less clear. Bitcoin remains in a corrective phase after reaching an all-time high of $120,000, wi th lower highs and lower lows forming despite brief rallies. The price is still trading below resistance at $97,000, a level analysts say would need to be reclaimed to signal a stronger shift in trend. Related Reading: XRP Market Now Controlled By Whales? Dominance Reaches 91% On Binance Two major supply zones between $79,000 and $94,000 continue to sit overhead, acting as a ceiling for the current rally. A support channel has been forming since prices bounced from around $59,000. The data points to a market where long-term conviction is rising but short-term direction remains unsettled. Whether buyers can hold the ground they’ve gained will likely shape the next significant move. Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView

10 May 2026, 12:21

Fed inflation fears spark preemptive BTC sell-off before crucial data

🚨 US inflation data sparks an early wave of selling in $BTC. This week’s figures could push the Fed toward rate hikes, not cuts. 📉 Critical data: Oil shock is fueling persistent US inflation and volatility. Continue Reading: Fed inflation fears spark preemptive BTC sell-off before crucial data The post Fed inflation fears spark preemptive BTC sell-off before crucial data appeared first on COINTURK NEWS .

10 May 2026, 11:59

Bitcoin faces $70,000 risk as inflation forecast rises

🚨 Bitcoin risks a dip toward $70,000 after rising US inflation forecast. Institutional buying in $BTC has weakened just as inflation pressures mount. 🟠 Key point: Technicals show a potential correction if support fails. Continue Reading: Bitcoin faces $70,000 risk as inflation forecast rises The post Bitcoin faces $70,000 risk as inflation forecast rises appeared first on COINTURK NEWS .