Invest ideasNews
29 Apr 2026, 15:52
Bitcoin outlook as Kevin Warsh prepares to take over the Fed
Bitcoin has entered a phase of heightened uncertainty ahead of a leadership change at the Federal Reserve, as traders weigh historical downside patterns against mixed policy signals from incoming chair Kevin Warsh. According to crypto trading account CRYPTOWZRD, Bitcoin has corrected for several months after each new Fed chair has taken office, a pattern now drawing attention as Warsh prepares to replace Jerome Powell next month. “Every time a new FED Chair takes over $BTC has corrected for a few months before the real fun began,” CRYPTOWZRD wrote on X , adding, “Can it break the curse or a final dip?” Data cited by the same source has shown that Fed leadership changes have also pressured equities, though the S&P 500 is trading at all-time highs during the current handover. Warsh’s arrival could carry a more complex meaning for crypto than a standard hawkish Fed transition. During recent testimony, Warsh said digital assets are already part of the American financial system, while his financial disclosures showed household exposure to crypto-linked investments. Market participants have treated those details as signs that his oversight of the sector may be more informed than Powell’s cautious approach. Warsh’s Fed could test Bitcoin’s liquidity thesis Policy expectations have become more politically charged before Warsh’s first Federal Open Market Committee meeting. President Donald Trump told CNBC that he “would” be disappointed if Warsh does not cut rates in June, even as markets tracked by CME Group’s FedWatch Tool have unanimously priced in no change at Powell’s final meeting. Liquidity trends have added a different signal. Bitcoin Opportunity Fund partner James Lavish said the Fed has added roughly $200 billion in US Treasuries back onto its balance sheet in recent months, arguing that quantitative tightening has effectively ended and describing the current backdrop as “QE-light.” Warsh’s policy record has left traders facing competing readings. According to Creative Planning’s chief market strategist, Charlie Bilello , Warsh has been “building the case” for rate cuts, but also noted that Warsh criticised the Fed’s low-rate stance during the 2021 and 2022 inflation surge as a “fatal policy error.” Those contradictions matter for Bitcoin because Warsh has also called for a more disciplined Fed, including a smaller balance sheet and a focus on institutional credibility. Some crypto analysts have noted that such a stance could pressure high-beta risk assets by tightening liquidity, while political pressure for easier money could create a tailwind for digital assets if investors begin to price in dollar debasement risk. Retail CBDC opposition gives private crypto room Warsh’s position on a central bank digital currency has also drawn attention from crypto investors. He has opposed a retail digital dollar, describing it as a poor policy choice that conflicts with American values of privacy and financial independence, while showing more openness toward a wholesale digital dollar for institutional settlement. For private crypto markets, that distinction could matter because a retail CBDC would place the Fed in direct competition with stablecoins and payment networks. A wholesale-only approach would leave more room for private stablecoin issuers and crypto payment infrastructure to develop without a central bank product aimed at everyday users. Warsh has previously described Bitcoin as the “newest and coolest software” while questioning its use as a stable medium of exchange. His more recent comments, disclosures, and CBDC stance suggest a chairmanship that may treat digital assets as part of the existing financial system rather than a fringe market. For Bitcoin, the first test may still come through liquidity . As mentioned before, historical patterns point to a possible downside in the months after Warsh takes office, while balance sheet additions, political pressure for rate cuts, and a less hostile view of private crypto could limit the damage or even support the digital gold narrative later in the cycle. The post Bitcoin outlook as Kevin Warsh prepares to take over the Fed appeared first on Invezz
29 Apr 2026, 15:50
Federal Reserve Holds Rates Steady, Defying Political Pressure to Cut in 2025
BitcoinWorld Federal Reserve Holds Rates Steady, Defying Political Pressure to Cut in 2025 The Federal Reserve has decided to maintain its benchmark interest rate at the current level, signaling a firm commitment to its inflation-fighting mandate despite mounting political pressure to ease monetary policy. This decision, announced at the conclusion of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on [Date], in Washington, D.C., marks a pivotal moment for the U.S. economy in 2025. Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision: A Defiant Stance The central bank’s decision to hold rates steady comes as a direct rebuke to calls from some lawmakers and industry groups who argue that high borrowing costs are stifling economic growth. The Fed, however, remains focused on its dual mandate: maximum employment and stable prices. Recent data shows that core inflation, while easing from its peak, remains stubbornly above the 2% target. This data-driven approach underpins the Fed’s resolve. Why the Fed Chose to Hold the Line Several key factors influenced the FOMC’s decision. First, the labor market remains unexpectedly tight, with wage growth still fueling consumer spending. Second, geopolitical uncertainties continue to inject volatility into global supply chains, posing a risk of renewed price pressures. Third, the Fed is carefully monitoring the lagged effects of its previous rate hikes. By holding steady, the central bank buys time to assess the full impact of its past actions without overcorrecting. Political Pressure vs. Economic Data The tension between the White House and the Federal Reserve has intensified in recent months. Political figures have publicly urged the Fed to cut rates to stimulate the housing market and manufacturing sector. However, Fed Chair Jerome Powell has consistently emphasized the importance of data dependency. This clash highlights a fundamental debate: should monetary policy prioritize short-term political goals or long-term economic stability? The Fed’s current path clearly favors the latter. The Inflation Picture in 2025 Current inflation metrics paint a complex picture. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) has dropped to 3.1% year-over-year, down from its 9.1% peak. However, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, the Fed’s preferred gauge, remains at 2.7%. Services inflation, particularly in housing and healthcare, has proven especially sticky. This data suggests that the final leg of the inflation fight will be the most difficult, requiring patience from policymakers. Market Reaction to the Fed’s Hold Financial markets initially reacted with mild disappointment, as some traders had priced in a small chance of a rate cut. The S&P 500 dipped slightly in afternoon trading, while bond yields rose modestly. The U.S. dollar strengthened against a basket of major currencies. Analysts at major investment banks have revised their forecasts, now predicting the first rate cut may not occur until the fourth quarter of 2025 or early 2026. Stock Market: Modest sell-off in rate-sensitive sectors like real estate and utilities. Bond Market: The 10-year Treasury yield climbed to 4.25%. Housing Market: Mortgage rates remain elevated, near 7%, cooling demand. Impact on Borrowers and Savers For consumers, the decision means continued high costs for credit cards, auto loans, and mortgages. Savers, conversely, continue to benefit from attractive yields on high-yield savings accounts and certificates of deposit. The Fed’s stance creates a clear divergence: borrowers face ongoing strain, while savers enjoy the highest real returns in over a decade. This dynamic is reshaping household financial strategies across the country. Global Implications of the Fed’s Decision The Fed’s decision reverberates globally. A stronger dollar puts pressure on emerging market economies that have borrowed in dollars. Central banks in Europe and Asia are watching closely, as a hawkish Fed limits their own ability to cut rates without triggering capital outflows. The coordinated nature of global monetary policy means that the Fed’s independence has consequences far beyond U.S. borders. Expert Analysis: A Necessary Patience Economists largely support the Fed’s cautious approach. “The risk of cutting rates too early and reigniting inflation is far greater than the risk of holding too long and slowing growth,” explains Dr. Elena Vargas, a former Fed economist now at the Peterson Institute. “The labor market is still strong. There is no emergency that demands immediate action.” This sentiment echoes across the economic community, reinforcing the idea that the Fed is acting responsibly. Timeline of the 2025 Monetary Policy Cycle To understand the current decision, it helps to look at the recent timeline: Date Action Fed Funds Rate July 2023 Final hike of the cycle 5.50% Jan 2024 First hold 5.50% Current (2025) Continued hold 5.50% Conclusion The Federal Reserve’s decision to hold rates steady in the face of political pressure underscores its commitment to data-driven monetary policy. By prioritizing long-term price stability over short-term political gains, the Fed aims to build a more sustainable economic foundation. While the path forward remains uncertain, the central bank’s clear signal is one of patience and vigilance. For investors, businesses, and consumers, the message is clear: the era of easy money is not returning anytime soon. FAQs Q1: Why did the Federal Reserve decide to hold interest rates steady? The Fed held rates steady because core inflation remains above its 2% target, the labor market is still tight, and it needs more time to assess the lagged effects of previous rate hikes. Q2: How does the Fed’s decision affect mortgage rates? Mortgage rates are likely to remain elevated, near 7%, as the Fed’s hold keeps long-term bond yields high. This continues to cool the housing market. Q3: Will the Fed cut rates in 2025? Most economists now predict the first rate cut may not happen until late 2025 or early 2026, depending on inflation data and economic growth. Q4: What is the difference between the CPI and PCE inflation measures? The CPI measures out-of-pocket costs for consumers, while the PCE adjusts for changes in consumer behavior. The Fed prefers the PCE because it provides a broader view of inflation. Q5: How does the Fed’s decision impact the stock market? Rate-sensitive sectors like real estate and utilities typically underperform when rates are held high. However, banks and financials may benefit from wider net interest margins. This post Federal Reserve Holds Rates Steady, Defying Political Pressure to Cut in 2025 first appeared on BitcoinWorld .
29 Apr 2026, 15:49
Czech Central Bank: BTC Reserve Test Increases Returns
Czech CB President Michl announced that the BTC reserve test increased the yield. In the 1M$ test, BTC outperformed gold, but volatility is high. Technical: Support $73K, Resistance $77K. Central b...
29 Apr 2026, 15:41
Canada Moves to Ban Crypto ATMs After Fraud Surge
Canada plans to ban all crypto ATMs after federal officials linked the machines to fraud, money laundering and other financial crimes. The proposal appeared in Canada’s Spring Economic Update 2026. The government said crypto ATMs allow scammers to defraud victims and help criminals move cash into the financial system. The measure is part of a wider plan to fight money laundering, terrorist financing, sanctions evasion and fraud. However, the official update describes the ban as a proposal, not as a rule already in force. Canada Crypto ATM Ban Targets Fraud Risks The Canadian government said crypto ATMs create a direct path between cash and digital assets. That has made the machines a useful tool for fraud schemes, according to federal officials. Scammers often pressure victims to withdraw cash and deposit it into Bitcoin or crypto ATMs. Once victims send the funds, they may not be able to recover the money. Canada’s Financial Consumer Agency has warned that fraudsters may ask for payment through crypto ATMs. These scams can start through online ads, social media posts, fake websites or direct messages. The Canadian Anti-Fraud Centre said Canadians lost more than $704 million to fraud in 2025. It also said reported fraud losses have passed $2.4 billion since 2022. However, the agency says most fraud still goes unreported. It estimates that only 5% to 10% of fraud cases reach official channels. Wider Financial Crime Crackdown Continues The crypto ATM ban sits inside a larger federal effort to tighten financial crime controls. Canada also plans stronger rules for money services businesses and wider enforcement powers. Finance Canada had already flagged crypto-related risks before the budget update. In March 2026, the department said crypto money services businesses and crypto ATMs can help facilitate money laundering and fraud. Canadian police have also reported fresh crypto ATM scam cases. In April 2026, Salmon Arm RCMP said scammers posed as government officials and told victims to deposit cash into Bitcoin ATMs. One victim in that case lost $11,900, according to police. The warning showed how scammers use pressure and official-sounding claims to move victims quickly. FINTRAC, Canada’s financial intelligence agency, has also increased scrutiny of crypto-related businesses. Its public records show a $176.9 million penalty against Xeltox Enterprises Ltd., also known as Cryptomus, for thousands of alleged compliance violations. The company appealed the penalty. The government has not yet confirmed when the crypto ATM ban would begin. It also has not published final penalties, operator rules or a transition period.
29 Apr 2026, 15:25
Bitcoin Rally Predicted by 21Shares CIO: Reclaiming $85K Could Spark Explosive Surge
BitcoinWorld Bitcoin Rally Predicted by 21Shares CIO: Reclaiming $85K Could Spark Explosive Surge Adrian Fritz, the Chief Investment Officer of global exchange-traded product issuer 21Shares, has projected that a Bitcoin rally could push the cryptocurrency past $100,000 by the end of the year. Fritz identifies the reclaiming of the $85,000 level as the critical trigger for this upward movement. This analysis arrives as the broader market watches macroeconomic signals closely. Bitcoin Rally Catalyst: The $85K Moving Average Fritz states that a genuine upward trend will begin only if Bitcoin reclaims its 200-day moving average of $85,000 . This technical level serves as a key support and resistance marker. Many analysts view this average as a proxy for long-term market health. Reclaiming it would signal a shift in momentum. Bitcoin currently trades below this threshold. The journey back to $85,000 requires sustained buying pressure. Fritz believes that breaking through this level would confirm a new bullish phase. This would likely attract more institutional capital. Spot Bitcoin ETFs Create Structural Demand A major driver for a potential Bitcoin rally is the consistent inflow into spot Bitcoin ETFs. Fritz notes that these products have absorbed over $2 billion this year alone. This creates a steady, structural buying pressure that did not exist in previous cycles. Unlike futures-based products, spot ETFs hold actual Bitcoin. This reduces the available supply on exchanges. Consequently, even moderate demand can push prices higher. The ETF structure also provides a regulated entry point for traditional investors. Liquidity Comparable to Major Tech Stocks Fritz highlights that Bitcoin’s daily trading volume now exceeds $50 billion. This liquidity level makes it comparable to large-cap technology stocks. High liquidity reduces the risk of price manipulation. It also allows large institutional orders to execute without major slippage. This stability is a key factor for asset managers. They require deep markets to enter and exit positions. Bitcoin now meets this criterion, further supporting a sustained Bitcoin rally . Institutional Adoption: A Decisive Turning Point The inclusion of Bitcoin in portfolios by major asset managers marks a pivotal moment. Fritz specifically cites Morgan Stanley as an example. These firms now offer Bitcoin exposure to their clients. This legitimizes the asset class for a broader audience. Institutional adoption brings several benefits: Increased capital inflows: Pension funds and endowments can now allocate. Improved market stability: Long-term holders reduce volatility. Regulatory clarity: Mainstream acceptance pressures regulators to create clear frameworks. This shift represents a structural change in the market. It moves Bitcoin from a speculative retail asset to a recognized portfolio component. Macroeconomic Variables: Inflation and Oil Prices Fritz identifies two key macroeconomic variables for the Bitcoin rally : inflation indicators and oil price trends. Bitcoin often trades as a hedge against inflation. Rising consumer prices typically boost its appeal. Oil prices influence global inflation directly. Higher energy costs raise production expenses across economies. This can lead to tighter monetary policy, which may dampen risk assets. Conversely, stable or falling oil prices create a favorable environment for Bitcoin. The interplay between these factors will determine the speed of the recovery. Fritz suggests that supportive macro conditions could accelerate the timeline to $100,000. Impact of Federal Reserve Policy The Federal Reserve’s interest rate decisions remain a critical backdrop. Lower rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like Bitcoin. Rate cuts or pauses often correlate with Bitcoin rally phases. Current market expectations point to potential rate cuts later this year. If realized, this could provide the necessary tailwind for Bitcoin to reclaim $85,000. Fritz’s analysis aligns with this broader macro outlook. Altcoin Market Reorganization: Focus on Fundamentals Fritz also predicts a significant shift in the altcoin market. He expects a move away from indiscriminate rallies. The new focus will be on projects that generate real revenue and cash flow. This represents a maturation of the cryptocurrency space. In previous cycles, hype and narrative drove prices. Now, investors demand tangible business metrics. Projects with sustainable models will outperform. Revenue-generating protocols: Platforms with active user fees. Cash-flow positive projects: Those that do not rely solely on token inflation. Real-world utility: Applications solving actual problems. This reorganization could lead to a more stable and credible altcoin ecosystem. It reduces the risk of speculative bubbles. Timeline and Price Targets for Bitcoin Fritz provides a clear timeline for his Bitcoin rally prediction. He expects Bitcoin to surpass $100,000 by the end of the year. This target depends on the reclaiming of $85,000 first. A phased approach is likely: Phase Price Level Trigger 1 $85,000 Reclaim 200-day moving average 2 $95,000 Breakthrough resistance 3 $100,000+ Macro support and ETF inflows Each phase requires confirmation from volume and market sentiment. Fritz remains cautiously optimistic about the trajectory. Conclusion Adrian Fritz’s analysis provides a clear roadmap for a potential Bitcoin rally . The reclaiming of $85,000 serves as the critical inflection point. Supported by structural ETF demand, institutional adoption, and favorable macro conditions, Bitcoin could reach $100,000 by year-end. The altcoin market also faces a fundamental shift toward revenue-generating projects. Investors should monitor inflation data and oil prices closely. These variables will determine the speed and strength of the next upward move. FAQs Q1: What is the key price level for a Bitcoin rally according to 21Shares CIO? A1: The key level is $85,000, which represents Bitcoin’s 200-day moving average. Reclaiming this level would signal a true upward rally. Q2: How do spot Bitcoin ETFs support a potential rally? A2: Spot ETFs create structural buying pressure by absorbing Bitcoin supply. They have already taken in over $2 billion this year, reducing available coins on exchanges. Q3: What macroeconomic factors influence Bitcoin’s price? A3: Inflation indicators and oil price trends are key variables. Rising inflation can boost Bitcoin’s appeal as a hedge, while stable oil prices create a favorable environment. Q4: How is the altcoin market expected to change? A4: The market will shift away from speculative rallies toward projects that generate real revenue and cash flow. This reorganization focuses on fundamentals over hype. Q5: What is the year-end price target for Bitcoin? A5: Adrian Fritz projects Bitcoin could surpass $100,000 by the end of the year if macroeconomic conditions are supportive and the $85,000 level is reclaimed. This post Bitcoin Rally Predicted by 21Shares CIO: Reclaiming $85K Could Spark Explosive Surge first appeared on BitcoinWorld .
29 Apr 2026, 15:03
Bitcoin Fell After 8 of 9 FOMC Meetings: Can ETF Demand Change That?
Fed funds futures priced a 100% no-change outcome for the April 29 FOMC meeting. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $89.68 million in daily net outflows. Ethereum spot ETFs also remained negative, with $21.80 million in daily net outflows. Fed rate expectations entered the session with no policy surprise priced in. Bitcoin ETFs still recorded heavier outflows, led by BlackRock’s IBIT. Ethereum ETFs also stayed in negative flow territory, despite gains across listed products. The data placed crypto markets between steady macro pricing and weaker ETF demand. FedWatch Prices 100% Rate Hold as Bitcoin Faces Post-FOMC Test Fed funds futures priced a full hold for the 29 April 2026 FOMC meeting . The target range stayed at 350 to 375 basis points across the latest reading. Traders assigned 100% probability to no change, with 0% for an ease and 0% for a hike. The contract used for the meeting was ZQJ6, expiring on 30 April 2026. It carried a mid price of 96.3588, prior volume of 6,411, and prior open interest of 422,968. The one-day and one-week readings also placed no-change odds at 100%. One month earlier, the same range held a 95.9% probability. The higher 375 to 400 basis point range carried 4.1% one month earlier, then fell to zero. That move removed the remaining pricing for a hike before the meeting. The current rate band, therefore, became the only priced outcome. This setup gives Bitcoin traders a cleaner macro event than recent FOMC meetings. Phemex’s primary data found BTC dropped within 48 hours after eight of the last nine FOMC meetings. Those declines came regardless of the policy decision. Today’s pricing creates a different backdrop because futures removed rate uncertainty before the announcement. Markets entered the meeting with no priced path for a hike or cut. Bitcoin’s next move, therefore, depends less on the rate decision and more on the Fed message. A steady-rate outcome already sits fully inside futures pricing. Any market reaction can shift toward guidance, inflation language, and risk appetite after the statement. Crypto markets often react quickly when traders adjust leverage after central bank events. With no-change odds at 100%, BTC faces a positioning test rather than a rate surprise. Spot Bitcoin ETFs See $89.68M Outflow as IBIT Leads Trading Volume According to the most recent update by SoSoValue, the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded a daily total net outflow of $89.68 million on April 28. Total value traded reached $1.35 billion, while total net assets stood at $100.39 billion. That asset base represented 6.56% of Bitcoin’s market capitalization. BlackRock’s IBIT led activity with $1.03 billion in value traded. However, the fund posted the largest daily outflow at $112.25 million. IBIT held $61.76 billion in net assets and controlled 4.03% of Bitcoin supply exposure. Its market price closed at $43.27, down 0.67% on the day. Source: SoSoValue (Bitcoin ETFs) Fidelity’s FBTC also recorded outflows, with $4.98 million leaving the fund. FBTC traded $144.83 million in value and held $14.16 billion in net assets. The fund’s market price fell 0.70% to $66.48. Its Bitcoin share stood at 0.93%, making it the second-largest product by net assets. Bitwise’s BITB added to the negative daily flow with $13.65 million in outflows. The fund traded $30.98 million and held $2.90 billion in net assets. Its market price declined 0.72% to $41.45. BITB carried a 0.20% fee and held a 0.19% Bitcoin share. Ark 21Shares’ ARKB moved against the broader daily outflow trend. The fund recorded $41.20 million in net inflows on April 28. ARKB traded $24.49 million and held $2.86 billion in net assets. Its market price fell 0.76% to $25.32, matching the wider price weakness. Grayscale’s GBTC reported zero daily net inflow and zero Bitcoin inflow. The fund still held $11.53 billion in net assets. GBTC traded $72.93 million, while its market price dropped 0.72% to $59.34. Its 1.50% fee remained the highest among listed products. Grayscale’s BTC product also reported no daily flow. It held $4.05 billion in net assets and traded $28.31 million. Its market price fell 0.68% to $33.77. The fund carried a 0.15% fee and a 0.26% Bitcoin share. Several smaller products recorded no daily net inflow. VanEck’s HODL, Invesco’s BTCO, Valkyrie’s BRRR, Franklin’s EZBC, and WisdomTree’s BTCW all showed zero flows. Their market prices declined between 0.66% and 0.72%. The session ended with broad ETF price losses and concentrated daily outflows from IBIT and BITB. What About Ethereum ETFs? While Bitcoin reported an outflow, Ethereum Spot ETFs remained in the red as they recorded a daily total net outflow of $21.80 million. Total value traded reached $428.61 million across listed products during the session. Total net assets stood at $13.57 billion after the update. That asset base equaled 4.90% of Ethereum’s market cap. BlackRock’s ETHA led trading activity with $325.83 million in value traded. The fund posted the largest daily outflow, with $13.17 million leaving the product. Source: SoSoValue (Ethereum ETFs) ETHA held $7.26 billion in net assets at the close. Its market price rose 0.58% to $17.37 despite the outflow. Grayscale’s ETH product reported no daily net inflow. It held $2.09 billion in net assets and traded $25.60 million. The market price gained 0.55% to $21.84. Its fee stood at 0.15%, below Grayscale’s ETHE fee. Grayscale’s ETHE recorded a $6.91 million daily outflow. The fund held $1.88 billion in net assets and traded $22.72 million. ETHE’s market price rose 0.54% to $18.69. Its 2.50% fee remained the highest among the listed Ethereum products. Fidelity’s FETH added another $1.72 million to daily outflows. The fund traded $18.11 million and held $1.29 billion in net assets. Its market price increased 0.53% to $22.93. FETH carried a 0.25% fee during the session. Several smaller Ethereum ETFs reported no daily net inflow. BlackRock’s ETHB, Bitwise’s ETHW, VanEck’s ETHV, Franklin’s EZET, Invesco’s QETH, and 21Shares’ TETH all showed zero flows. Their market prices continued to rise throughout the session. Daily gains ranged from 0.44% to 0.69%. Bitwise’s ETHW traded $8.73 million and held $242.75 million in net assets. VanEck’s ETHV traded $724,470 and held $116.62 million. Franklin’s EZET traded $441,460 and held $46.11 million. Invesco’s QETH traded $75,340 and held $21.83 million.
