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11 Feb 2026, 11:15

EUR/USD Analysis: The Critical Wait for Nonfarm Payrolls Data Grips Forex Markets

BitcoinWorld EUR/USD Analysis: The Critical Wait for Nonfarm Payrolls Data Grips Forex Markets LONDON, March 7, 2025 – The EUR/USD currency pair exhibits a cautiously optimistic posture in early European trading, holding moderate bids as global investors brace for the pivotal release of the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report. This key macroeconomic event consistently serves as a major catalyst for volatility across the foreign exchange market, particularly for the world’s most liquid currency pair. Consequently, traders are currently parsing through a complex web of technical chart patterns, recent economic data from both continents, and shifting central bank policy expectations to gauge potential directional moves. EUR/USD Technical Chart Analysis and Current Positioning Technical analysis reveals the EUR/USD trading within a defined range ahead of the high-impact data. The pair currently finds immediate resistance near the 1.0950 level, a zone that has capped upward movements on multiple occasions this week. Conversely, strong support appears clustered around the 1.0850 handle, aligning with the 50-day simple moving average. Market participants note that trading volumes have contracted significantly in the preceding 24 hours, a classic pre-NFP phenomenon indicating widespread caution. Furthermore, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits in neutral territory near 52, suggesting neither overbought nor oversold conditions and leaving ample room for a decisive move post-data. Several key technical levels are in focus: Resistance: 1.0950 (Recent High), 1.0980 (February Peak), 1.1020 (Major Psychological Level) Support: 1.0850 (50-Day SMA), 1.0820 (Weekly Low), 1.0780 (200-Day SMA) Option market data, often a gauge of professional sentiment, shows heightened demand for both call and put options expiring shortly after the NFP release. This positioning indicates traders are hedging for a significant breakout but remain uncertain of its direction. The prevailing ‘moderately bid’ tone suggests a slight lean towards Euro strength or Dollar weakness, yet this is tempered by the overwhelming influence of the impending jobs data. The Economic Context: Diverging Paths for the Fed and ECB The current market stance cannot be viewed in isolation from the broader monetary policy landscape. The Federal Reserve’s recent communications have emphasized a data-dependent approach, explicitly tying the future path of interest rates to incoming inflation and labor market figures. Therefore, the NFP report, alongside wage growth data, provides critical evidence for the Fed’s next policy move. A strong report, particularly with elevated wage pressures, could reinforce expectations for the Fed to maintain a restrictive stance for longer, potentially boosting the US Dollar. Conversely, the European Central Bank (ECB) faces its own set of challenges. While Eurozone inflation has retreated from peaks, economic growth remains fragile. Recent PMI data from the bloc showed only marginal expansion in the services sector, while manufacturing continues to contract. The ECB has signaled a potential rate cut cycle could begin in the summer, but its pace remains uncertain. This policy divergence—or the perception of its timing—is a fundamental driver of EUR/USD flows. Analysts at major investment banks, including Goldman Sachs and Deutsche Bank, have published research notes highlighting how NFP outcomes could recalibrate the expected timing of policy shifts from both central banks. Historical Impact of NFP Releases on EUR/USD Volatility Historical data underscores the NFP’s market-moving power. According to a 2024 study by the Bank for International Settlements (BIS), the EUR/USD experiences an average absolute price change of 0.8% in the hour following the NFP release, which is approximately 400% higher than the average hourly move on a non-event day. The table below illustrates the typical market reaction based on data surprises from the past two years: NFP Data vs. Forecast Average EUR/USD 1-Hour Move Typical Initial Direction Significantly Stronger +0.9% (USD Strengthens) Downward Moderately Stronger +0.5% Downward In Line with Forecast +0.3% (Volatile, No Clear Trend) Mixed/Choppy Moderately Weaker +0.6% (USD Weakens) Upward Significantly Weaker +1.2% Upward It is crucial to note that the market’s reaction also heavily depends on the accompanying Average Hourly Earnings figure. A high wage growth number can amplify a positive NFP print’s Dollar-positive impact, as it feeds directly into inflation concerns. Risk Management Strategies for Traders Ahead of the Event Professional trading desks are implementing specific risk protocols for the NFP release. Many are reducing leverage, widening stop-loss orders to account for expected slippage and volatility, and closing a portion of directional bets to maintain a more neutral book. The ‘moderately bid’ action seen currently may partly reflect the unwinding of extreme short-Euro positions established earlier in the week, rather than a strong conviction for a sustained rally. Retail traders are advised by regulatory bodies like the UK’s FCA and the U.S.’s NFA to be acutely aware of the increased risks during such events, including rapid price gaps and potential liquidity shortages in the immediate aftermath of the data. Beyond the headline number, sophisticated market participants will scrutinize the report’s details: Revisions to prior months: Significant upward or downward revisions can alter the perceived trend. Labor Force Participation Rate: Indicates worker engagement and potential labor supply. Unemployment Rate: A coincident indicator of economic health. Sectoral Job Gains/Losses: Reveals the underlying strength of the economy. These components collectively paint a fuller picture of the US labor market, influencing Federal Reserve policy expectations far more than the headline figure alone. Conclusion The EUR/USD pair’s moderately bid stance ahead of the US Nonfarm Payrolls data reflects a market in a state of anticipatory equilibrium. Technical charts show consolidation within key levels, while fundamental analysis hinges on a data point that will directly shape monetary policy expectations for the world’s largest economy. The immediate future of the EUR/USD exchange rate rests on the interplay between the NFP numbers, the wage data, and the subsequent interpretation by the Federal Reserve. While the pre-release bias is slightly positive for the Euro, the overwhelming historical precedent suggests that the post-NFP volatility will dictate the pair’s short-term trajectory, making prudent risk management the paramount concern for all market participants engaged in EUR/USD trading. FAQs Q1: What time is the US Nonfarm Payrolls report released? The US Nonfarm Payrolls data is typically released at 8:30 AM Eastern Time (ET) on the first Friday of every month by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Q2: Why does the EUR/USD react so strongly to US jobs data? The EUR/USD reacts strongly because the data is a primary indicator of US economic health, directly influencing Federal Reserve interest rate decisions. Interest rate differentials are a core driver of currency values. Q3: What does ‘moderately bid’ mean for a currency pair? ‘Moderately bid’ indicates there are slightly more buy orders than sell orders for the base currency (Euro, in EUR/USD) at current price levels, creating gentle upward pressure, but not a strong trend. Q4: Besides NFP, what other data moves the EUR/USD? Key data includes Eurozone inflation (CPI), US inflation (CPI/PCE), interest rate decisions and statements from the ECB and Fed, and GDP growth figures from both economic regions. Q5: How can traders manage risk during the NFP release? Traders can manage risk by reducing position sizes, using wider stop-loss orders to avoid being stopped out by normal volatility, avoiding excessive leverage, and considering waiting for the initial market spike to settle before entering new trades. This post EUR/USD Analysis: The Critical Wait for Nonfarm Payrolls Data Grips Forex Markets first appeared on BitcoinWorld .

11 Feb 2026, 10:45

US Dollar Index Plummets: Critical Decline Ahead of High-Stakes NFP Release

BitcoinWorld US Dollar Index Plummets: Critical Decline Ahead of High-Stakes NFP Release NEW YORK, March 7, 2025 – The US Dollar Index (DXY), a critical benchmark measuring the greenback’s strength against a basket of six major currencies, recorded a significant decline in early Friday trading. This pivotal drop occurred directly ahead of the highly anticipated release of the US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report, a key economic indicator that consistently sways global currency markets and Federal Reserve policy expectations. Market analysts immediately interpreted the pre-data weakness as a clear signal of investor caution, positioning for potential volatility and reassessing the trajectory of US monetary policy. US Dollar Index Decline: Analyzing the Pre-NFP Retreat The DXY fell by approximately 0.8% to hover near the 103.50 level in the hours preceding the data release. This movement represents a notable retreat from recent highs and reflects a complex interplay of market forces. Traders typically reduce exposure ahead of major economic events to mitigate risk. Consequently, the pre-NFP period often witnesses position squaring and profit-taking, especially after sustained rallies. The dollar’s weakness was broad-based, with notable declines against the euro, British pound, and Japanese yen. This pattern suggests a market-wide reassessment of dollar holdings rather than strength in a single counterpart currency. Historical data from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis shows similar pre-NFP declines have preceded major market moves in over 60% of cases in the past two years. The Non-Farm Payrolls Report: A Market-Moving Catalyst The monthly NFP report, issued by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, serves as the foremost gauge of US labor market health. It details the number of jobs added or lost in the previous month, excluding farm workers, private household employees, and non-profit organization employees. Financial institutions and central banks scrutinize this data for its direct implications on inflation and economic growth. A stronger-than-expected report typically fuels expectations for a more hawkish Federal Reserve, potentially supporting the dollar. Conversely, a weak report can trigger dollar selling as traders price in a delayed or slower pace of interest rate hikes. The consensus forecast for today’s report, according to a Bloomberg survey of economists, pointed to an addition of 200,000 jobs, with the unemployment rate holding steady at 3.7%. Expert Analysis: Interpreting the Pre-Data Sentiment “The dollar’s decline this morning is a textbook example of risk management,” noted Dr. Anya Sharma, Chief Currency Strategist at Global Macro Advisors. “Markets have priced in a considerable amount of optimism regarding US economic resilience. The pre-NFP pullback indicates traders are locking in gains and creating room to react to the actual data, whether it surprises to the upside or downside. The key levels to watch are the 103.20 support and the 104.80 resistance; a break either way post-release will dictate the short-term trend.” This expert perspective underscores the tactical nature of the decline, framing it not as a fundamental breakdown but as a strategic repositioning within a volatile data-dependent environment. Broader Economic Context and Global Impacts The dollar’s performance does not occur in a vacuum. Its value directly impacts global trade, commodity prices, and emerging market economies. A weaker dollar makes US exports more competitive but increases the cost of imports, contributing to inflationary pressures. Furthermore, many international commodities, like oil and gold, are priced in dollars. Therefore, a falling dollar often makes these assets cheaper for holders of other currencies, potentially boosting demand. For emerging markets, dollar weakness can ease debt servicing costs on dollar-denominated loans and reduce capital outflow pressures. The current decline, therefore, carries implications far beyond the forex trading desks, affecting multinational corporate earnings, central bank reserves management, and global inflation dynamics. Technical and Fundamental Drivers of the DXY Move Several concurrent factors contributed to the selling pressure on the dollar index. Firstly, a slight dip in US Treasury yields reduced the dollar’s interest rate attractiveness. Secondly, marginally improved economic data from the Eurozone provided modest support to the euro, which carries the heaviest weighting (57.6%) in the DXY basket. Thirdly, market positioning data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) revealed that speculative net-long positions on the US dollar had reached extended levels, leaving the currency vulnerable to a corrective pullback. The table below summarizes the key technical levels breached during the decline: Technical Level Significance Status 104.00 Psychological Round Number Broken as Resistance 103.80 50-Day Moving Average Breached to the Downside 103.20 Previous Weekly Low Key Support Zone This combination of technical breaks and fundamental caution created a self-reinforcing cycle of selling. Historical Precedents and Market Psychology Examining past instances reveals a common pattern. For example, in June 2023, the DXY fell 0.6% ahead of an NFP release that subsequently surprised massively to the upside, triggering a violent dollar rally. This illustrates that pre-data moves are not always predictive of the post-data direction. Market psychology during these windows is dominated by uncertainty aversion. Traders prioritize capital preservation over potential gains, leading to reduced liquidity and amplified price swings. The “whisper number”—unofficial market consensus that often differs from the official economist survey—can also drive these pre-release moves, as institutional players position based on proprietary data analysis. The Federal Reserve’s Data-Dependent Stance Since its pivot in late 2024, the Federal Reserve has explicitly adopted a meeting-by-meeting, data-dependent approach to policy. Chairperson’s recent remarks have emphasized that decisions on the pace of balance sheet reduction and the terminal policy rate will hinge on incoming data, with the labor market being a primary focus. Therefore, each NFP report carries amplified significance, acting as a direct input into the Fed’s reaction function. A soft report could validate market bets on an earlier pause in quantitative tightening, while a hot report could rekindle fears of resurgent inflation and more aggressive action, making the dollar’s pre-emptive decline a logical hedge against this binary outcome. Conclusion The decline in the US Dollar Index ahead of the Non-Farm Payrolls release underscores the profound sensitivity of currency markets to high-stakes economic data. This move reflects strategic de-risking, technical corrections, and a global market bracing for volatility. While the pre-data weakness signals caution, the ultimate trajectory for the dollar will be determined by the actual NFP figures and their interpretation through the lens of Federal Reserve policy. Today’s activity reinforces a central tenet of modern forex trading: in a data-driven regime, anticipation and positioning are as critical as the reaction itself. The market’s next major move hinges entirely on the numbers about to cross the wire. FAQs Q1: What is the US Dollar Index (DXY)? The US Dollar Index is a geometrically weighted average that measures the value of the United States dollar relative to a basket of six major world currencies: the Euro (EUR), Japanese yen (JPY), British pound (GBP), Canadian dollar (CAD), Swedish krona (SEK), and Swiss franc (CHF). Q2: Why does the NFP report have such a large impact on the dollar? The Non-Farm Payrolls report is the premier indicator of US labor market health. A strong labor market fuels wage growth and consumer spending, which can lead to inflation. The Federal Reserve uses this data to set interest rate policy, and higher interest rates generally increase foreign investment demand for dollar-denominated assets, strengthening the currency. Q3: Does a pre-NFP dollar decline predict a weak jobs report? Not necessarily. The pre-release decline often reflects risk management and position squaring by traders. The market reaction following the actual data release can completely reverse the pre-data move, depending on whether the numbers meet, exceed, or fall short of expectations. Q4: How does a weaker US Dollar Index affect the average American? A weaker dollar makes imported goods more expensive, contributing to higher consumer prices (inflation). It can make foreign travel costlier but makes US exports cheaper and more competitive abroad, potentially boosting manufacturing and agricultural sectors. Q5: What other economic data points move the US Dollar Index significantly? Beyond the NFP, key data includes the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for inflation, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) interest rate decisions and statements, Retail Sales figures, and Gross Domestic Product (GDP) reports. Geopolitical events and broad risk sentiment also play major roles. This post US Dollar Index Plummets: Critical Decline Ahead of High-Stakes NFP Release first appeared on BitcoinWorld .

11 Feb 2026, 10:38

Erik Voorhees Invests Heavily in Gold as Markets Shift

Erik Voorhees invested heavily in gold, balancing his crypto portfolio with PAXG. Gold prices surged past $5,000 due to central bank purchases and ETFs. Continue Reading: Erik Voorhees Invests Heavily in Gold as Markets Shift The post Erik Voorhees Invests Heavily in Gold as Markets Shift appeared first on COINTURK NEWS .

11 Feb 2026, 10:35

EUR/USD Holds Critical Gains as Markets Brace for Pivotal Nonfarm Payrolls Data

BitcoinWorld EUR/USD Holds Critical Gains as Markets Brace for Pivotal Nonfarm Payrolls Data LONDON, March 2025 – The EUR/USD currency pair maintains its recent gains in early European trading, hovering near the 1.0950 level as global financial markets enter a holding pattern ahead of today’s pivotal US Nonfarm Payrolls report. This crucial employment data represents the final major economic indicator before the Federal Reserve’s March policy meeting, potentially determining the timing of the central bank’s next interest rate adjustment. Market participants globally await the 8:30 AM EST release with heightened anticipation, recognizing its capacity to trigger significant volatility across currency markets. EUR/USD Technical Analysis and Current Positioning The EUR/USD pair currently trades within a narrow 40-pip range between 1.0920 and 1.0960, reflecting the market’s cautious stance ahead of the data release. Technical analysis reveals several critical levels that traders monitor closely. The pair maintains position above its 50-day moving average at 1.0885, suggesting underlying bullish momentum. However, resistance persists near the 1.0980 level, which has capped upward movements on three occasions this month. Support levels cluster around 1.0900, with stronger support at 1.0850 representing the February consolidation zone. Market positioning data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission shows speculators reduced their net short euro positions by 12% in the week ending February 28. This adjustment suggests growing confidence in the euro’s resilience despite divergent monetary policy paths between the European Central Bank and Federal Reserve. Trading volumes in EUR/USD futures increased 18% yesterday compared to the 30-day average, indicating heightened institutional interest ahead of today’s data release. The Nonfarm Payrolls Report: Components and Market Expectations The US Bureau of Labor Statistics will release March’s employment data at 8:30 AM Eastern Standard Time. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg forecast the addition of 185,000 nonfarm payroll jobs, representing a moderate slowdown from February’s 225,000 gain. The unemployment rate is expected to remain steady at 3.7%, while average hourly earnings likely increased 0.3% month-over-month and 4.1% year-over-year. These components collectively provide the Federal Reserve with crucial insights into labor market tightness and wage inflation pressures. Market reactions typically follow a predictable pattern based on data deviations. A stronger-than-expected report, particularly regarding wage growth, generally strengthens the US dollar as it increases expectations for Federal Reserve tightening. Conversely, weaker employment figures typically weaken the dollar by reducing rate hike probabilities. The table below outlines potential market scenarios based on today’s data release: Scenario Payrolls Wage Growth EUR/USD Impact Hawkish >220,000 >0.4% monthly Potential drop to 1.0850 Neutral 180,000-220,000 0.2%-0.4% monthly Range-bound 1.0900-1.0980 Dovish Potential rise to 1.1020 Monetary Policy Divergence and Currency Implications The Federal Reserve maintains its data-dependent approach to monetary policy, with Chair Jerome Powell repeatedly emphasizing the labor market’s central role in inflation dynamics. The Federal Open Market Committee’s March meeting begins next Tuesday, making today’s employment data particularly significant. Meanwhile, the European Central Bank continues its more cautious stance, with President Christine Lagarde noting that eurozone inflation remains above target despite recent improvements. This policy divergence creates fundamental support for dollar strength against the euro, yet recent economic data has introduced complexity. Eurozone inflation surprised to the downside in February, falling to 2.6% year-over-year from 2.8% in January. Simultaneously, US Personal Consumption Expenditures data showed persistent services inflation, keeping Federal Reserve officials cautious about declaring victory over price pressures. These cross-currents explain why EUR/USD has remained range-bound despite seemingly divergent monetary policy trajectories. Historical Context and Market Psychology Nonfarm Payrolls releases have triggered significant EUR/USD movements throughout 2024 and early 2025. The January 2025 report, which showed unexpectedly strong wage growth, prompted a 1.4% dollar rally against the euro within 24 hours. Conversely, the September 2024 release, which revealed weaker-than-expected job creation, resulted in a 0.9% euro appreciation. These historical precedents inform today’s market positioning, with options markets pricing in an implied daily volatility of 0.8% for EUR/USD, approximately 40% above the 30-day average. Market psychology ahead of major data releases typically follows identifiable patterns. Traders reduce directional exposure while increasing volatility positions through options strategies. Liquidity providers widen spreads slightly to account for increased uncertainty. Algorithmic trading systems adjust their parameters to respond rapidly to data deviations. These collective behaviors create the characteristic pre-release calm that currently characterizes EUR/USD trading. Global Economic Interconnections and Spillover Effects The EUR/USD exchange rate functions as the world’s most traded currency pair, representing approximately 23% of global foreign exchange turnover according to Bank for International Settlements data. Its movements influence numerous interconnected markets. European exporters monitor EUR/USD levels closely, as a stronger euro reduces the competitiveness of their goods in US markets. Similarly, US multinational corporations with significant European operations face translation risks when converting euro-denominated revenues back to dollars. Beyond corporate implications, currency movements affect global capital flows. A strengthening dollar typically correlates with reduced capital flows to emerging markets, as dollar-denominated debt becomes more expensive to service. European government bond yields often move inversely to EUR/USD, as currency strength reduces imported inflation pressures. These complex interconnections mean today’s Nonfarm Payrolls data will reverberate far beyond the foreign exchange markets. Technical Indicators and Trading Strategies Professional traders employ multiple technical indicators to navigate data releases. Bollinger Bands currently show EUR/USD trading near the upper band, suggesting the pair may be overbought in the short term. The Relative Strength Index reads 62, indicating bullish momentum without reaching extreme overbought territory. Moving Average Convergence Divergence shows a bullish crossover that occurred three days ago, supporting the current upward bias. Trading strategies for today’s release typically fall into three categories: Breakout strategies that enter positions when price moves beyond established ranges Fade strategies that counter initial overreactions to data surprises Volatility strategies that profit from increased price swings regardless of direction Risk management becomes particularly crucial around high-impact events. Professional traders typically reduce position sizes, widen stop-loss orders to account for increased volatility, and avoid holding positions through the release unless specifically trading the event. Retail traders face particular challenges during these periods, as rapid price movements can trigger stop-loss orders before markets establish clear direction. Conclusion The EUR/USD currency pair maintains its gains as global markets await the pivotal US Nonfarm Payrolls data release. Today’s employment figures will provide crucial insights into labor market strength and wage inflation pressures, directly influencing Federal Reserve policy expectations. Technical analysis shows the pair trading within a defined range with bullish momentum indicators, though resistance near 1.0980 remains significant. Market participants should prepare for increased volatility regardless of the data outcome, with historical precedents suggesting potential moves exceeding 0.8% in either direction. The EUR/USD reaction to today’s Nonfarm Payrolls data will establish near-term direction while offering insights into broader monetary policy trajectories for both the Federal Reserve and European Central Bank. FAQs Q1: What time is the US Nonfarm Payrolls data released? The US Bureau of Labor Statistics releases Nonfarm Payrolls data at 8:30 AM Eastern Standard Time on the first Friday of each month. Q2: Why does Nonfarm Payrolls data significantly impact EUR/USD? Employment data directly influences Federal Reserve monetary policy expectations, which affect interest rate differentials between the US and eurozone, a primary driver of currency valuations. Q3: What constitutes a “strong” versus “weak” Nonfarm Payrolls report? Markets generally consider payroll additions above 200,000 with wage growth exceeding 0.3% monthly as strong, while figures below 180,000 with wage growth under 0.2% typically appear weak. Q4: How long do EUR/USD movements typically last after Nonfarm Payrolls releases? Initial volatility often subsides within 2-3 hours, though directional trends established after the release frequently persist for several trading sessions. Q5: What other economic indicators should traders monitor alongside Nonfarm Payrolls? Traders should watch the unemployment rate, average hourly earnings, labor force participation rate, and revisions to previous months’ data for comprehensive labor market analysis. This post EUR/USD Holds Critical Gains as Markets Brace for Pivotal Nonfarm Payrolls Data first appeared on BitcoinWorld .

11 Feb 2026, 10:30

Kremlin expresses regret over Telegram restrictions

The Kremlin has commented on the latest Russian restrictions on Telegram, expressing regret, mainly about what led to them, through its spokesman Dmitry Peskov. In an interview with state media, the official representative of the Putin administration insisted the popular messenger must comply with Russia’s laws. Meanwhile, some fear that Telegram founder Pavel Durov’s defiant statement on the matter may have already decided the future of the platform in the Russian Federation. What happens with Telegram is a pity, according to Peskov President Vladimir Putin’s press secretary blamed Telegram’s failure to abide by Russian law for the current restrictions on the messenger’s operations in Russia, describing the development as regrettable. Speaking to the official TASS news agency, Dmitry Peskov stated: “I see and read statements from Roskomnadzor that the decision was made to slow down Telegram because the company is not complying with Russian law. Well, it’s a pity that the company isn’t complying, but there is a law that must be followed.” The Kremlin official was asked whether the Russian authorities will ultimately block the widely used messenger. In response, Peskov suggested it would be better if Telegram and other restricted services complied with legal requirements. Russian users started complaining about interruptions in Telegram services on Monday. Russian media revealed the following day that the country’s telecom watchdog, known as Roskomnadzor (RKN), had decided to start restricting the messenger. Over 11,000 complaints were registered within 24 hours, according to data compiled by Downdetector. Nearly a third of the users reported notification failures, over a quarter had issues with the mobile app, 22% saw general failures and 15% informed about website failures, TASS detailed. The Federal Service for Supervision of Communications, Information Technology and Mass Media later confirmed its intentions to continue to impose “consistent restrictions” on the messenger until it complies with Russian legislation and ensures the “protection of citizens,” as quoted by RBC. According to a report by the RIA Novosti news agency, Telegram faces fines totaling 64 million rubles (almost $830,000) in as many as eight upcoming court hearings. All of these financial penalties stem from alleged failures to remove certain content prohibited by Russian law. Durov’s reaction said to decide the fate of Telegram in Russia While Roskomnadzor also stated it remains open to working with both domestic and foreign internet platforms, provided they respect Russia and its citizens, what followed next may close that door for Telegram, according to some comments in the country. On Tuesday, Telegram founder Pavel Durov issued a statement accusing Moscow of restricting access to his messenger in an attempt to force Russians to use a “state-controlled app built for surveillance and political censorship.” Indeed, Russian authorities have been pushing a government-approved messaging service called Max at the expense of competitors like WhatsApp . In August, the RKN announced it’s limiting voice calls via both Meta’s app and Telegram, alleging they had become popular with fraudsters. In his post , Durov recalled Iran’s “same” and “failed” strategy from a few years ago, when the Islamic Republic banned Telegram and tried to “force people onto a state-run alternative,” insisting: “Despite the ban, most Iranians still use Telegram (bypassing censorship) and prefer it to surveilled apps. Restricting citizens’ freedom is never the right answer. Telegram stands for freedom of speech and privacy, no matter the pressure.” According to Russian political consultant Dmitry Fetisov, Durov’s position can have serious consequences for Telegram amid shrinking room for compromise with officials in Moscow. He commented : “With his statement, Durov effectively ‘dumped’ the Russian segment of Telegram.” Nevertheless, he also noted there is more than a month between this week’s slowdown and the full blocking of Telegram, during which the parties could still reach some agreement, despite Durov making it clear he has no intention to negotiate. Fetisov, who has previously followed Durov’s activities and Telegram’s presence in Russia, added that the Iran comparison insulted many in Russia’s current political system, which is unlikely to waver under public pressure and abandon its plan to block Telegram. The commentator added: “And as bitter as this may sound for many, in this situation, Telegram’s fate is sealed by mid-March. Unless some more powerful factors intervene. We’ll see.” According to Eldar Murtazin from the Mobile Research Group analytical agency, Telegram will seek ways to bypass Roskomnadzor’s blockade. He told the “Komsomolskaya Pravda” radio that the messenger had already demonstrated it would fight any blocking attempt in any country . The analyst is convinced that Pavel Durov’s position hasn’t changed significantly since 2015, which means the standoff with Russian authorities will continue. The tech entrepreneur, which holds dual French-Emirati citizenship, left his native Russia and his top executive post at VK more than a decade ago. At the time, he alleged the Russian social network had been taken over by allies of the Kremlin following his refusal to censor protestors in Russia and Ukraine. Once also founded by Durov as VKontakte, VK is now the developer of the Russian state-approved Max messenger. If you're reading this, you’re already ahead. Stay there with our newsletter .

11 Feb 2026, 10:20

China’s SMIC maintains revenue as AI chip orders counter broader slowdown

China’s largest contract chipmaker, Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp (SMIC), said increasing demand for chips used in artificial intelligence will keep its revenue stable even as chip orders from smartphones and other low-end electronics grow weaker. The company reported a rise in wafer shipments and higher factory adoption, but also warned that chip production for consumer electronics is slowing as industries focus more on AI production. SMIC ships more wafers because strong AI demand keeps its factories busy SMIC said its revenue in 2026 increased by 16.2% year over year to $9.3 billion, driven by strong demand for AI chips, enabling the company to grow even as other parts of the market slowed. The company stated that net profit jumped 39% to $685.1 million because it shipped more wafers and ran its manufacturing plants closer to full capacity. In 2025, SMIC shipped 21% more wafers, totaling 9.7 million units, compared to 8 million units shipped in 2024. The company’s plants are currently operating near maximum capacity, with factory use rising by 8% to 93.5% because demand is strong enough to run the machinery almost around the clock. The tariffs imposed by the U.S. on China in 2025 made it imperative for China to encourage its industries to produce their own chips rather than rely on external sources. The need has increased as more local companies rely on local sources rather than external ones, thereby boosting demand for SMIC. SMIC’s factories have become so busy that the company has started increasing prices by about 10% on some production lines, underscoring how demand for AI-related and power-management chips keeps growing. SMIC earns less profit because phone orders are weaker and costs are higher Even as SMIC continues to benefit from strong AI demand, its profit fell short of analysts’ expectations due to weaker orders for low-end products. As a result, the company’s Hong Kong-listed shares dropped by about 3% after it released its earnings report, and investors noticed the weaker profit result. During the earnings call, the company’s co-CEO, Zhao Haijun, stated that orders from smartphone manufacturers and other makers of low-end electronics are being “squeezed.” This is because the global chip industry is prioritizing the development of advanced chips for artificial intelligence, leaving less room for simpler chips that once made up a large part of the industry. This challenge is made all the more difficult by the semiconductor industry’s current shortage of critical memory chips. In their race to produce better and better chips for AI data centers, they are consuming more and more manufacturing resources and wafer capacity, thereby driving up the cost of chip supply chains across the board. Because memory chips and wafer space are harder to obtain, several businesses, including smartphone manufacturers, have already been forced to scale back their planned production. That represents another decrease in demand for lower-end chips, adding more pressure on companies like SMIC. Nevertheless, Zhao stated that SMIC remains well-positioned in the current industry cycle. In addition, the company is prepared to address any urgent market needs to support revenue growth in 2026. SMIC believes that, despite its challenges, there are long-term opportunities driven by AI and China’s push for local chip production. Meanwhile, the broader AI bubble continues to evolve the global semiconductor market. In fact, worldwide semiconductor sales set a record high of $791.7 billion during 2025. It is expected that semiconductor sales could reach $1 trillion in 2026, clearly indicating the influence of AI on the next phase of semiconductor market evolution. The smartest crypto minds already read our newsletter. Want in? Join them .