hodler

31 Jan 2026, 04:52

Strategy: Bitcoin As A Treasury Model Faces Stress Test

Summary MicroStrategy (MSTR) has seen its Bitcoin-as-a-Treasury strategy falter, eroding the premium that has fueled rapid BTC accumulation via equity issuance. MSTR's market-adjusted net asset value (mNAV) has declined to 1.07, making further equity issuance more dilutive and less accretive for BTC purchases. The 10% Series A Perpetual Stride Preferred (STRD) offers substantial income with clearly defined risks, though coupon suspension remains a remote concern. Strategy's ( MSTR ) Bitcoin-as-a-Treasury ("BaaT") business model has dramatically imploded on the back of a 58% decline over the last 1-year. This has broadly eliminated an inherent tentpole premium that has formed a currency for MSTR's rapid accumulation of BTC since a sleepy enterprise software company operating out of Tyson's Corner, Virginia, decided to buy and hold BTC on its balance sheet in the summer of 2020. This new zeitgeist represents MSTR's most intense stress test. It could really come to represent a permanent step change in the company's prospects, a rollback of the highly lucrative BTC accumulation strategy that allowed the constant issuance of new common equity to buy BTC. This strategy has been ruthlessly effective, allowing MSTR to increase its BTC holdings to 712,647 as of its most recent dashboard update. Strategy Business Wire Strategy This is valued at $63.64 billion with BTC currently trading for roughly $89,294. Critically, with MSTR's enterprise value at $68.21 billion, the company's market-adjusted net asset value ("mNAV") has dipped to 1.07. This captures MSTR's enterprise value in relation to the value of its BTC holdings. A figure greater than 1x means the company can sell its common shares through its at-the-market offering program at a cadence that optimises its BTC yield. This yield is a measure of the percentage change in BTC owned per share in comparison to the ramp-up in shareholder dilution. MSTR's BTC yield since the start of 2026 is currently running at 0.4% , just 40 basis points above zero. This is markedly lower than a BTC yield through 2025 that came in at 22.8%. The company closed out 2024 with a BTC yield of 74.3% . I last covered MSTR with a hold rating. Strategy Beyond A Future Crypto Winter And The Non-Cumulative Perpetual Stride Preferreds Data by YCharts Data by YCharts MSTR's weighted average common shares outstanding have increased by 148.8% over the last three years, an annual pace of dilution of just under 50% per year. Critically, the company's strategy made sense when this pace of dilution was completed at a BTC yield of 74.3%. The impact of diminishing mNAV is one where MSTR's core investment proposition is fundamentally eroded. The worst-case scenario for the company centers on a possible prolonged BTC winter being paired with an mNAV that's below 1x. MSTR is planning for this scenario, and in December, updated the market that it had built a $2.2 billion cash buffer to support the continued payment of the coupon payments on its preferreds. MSTR faces annual dividend payments of at least $880 million on its universe of preferreds. QuantumOnline Seeking Alpha This sets up the company's 10.00% Series A Perpetual Stride Preferred Stock ( STRD ) as a possible investment at its current level. These are currently swapping hands for $72.83 per share, an 27% discount to their $100 per share liquidation value. However, this discount does not matter as much. They're perpetual and not callable. Hence, the probability of MSTR redeeming these at their liquidation value is near-zero. The uncertainty is whether the company can continue to meet the annual $10 per share coupon payments. The cash reserves mean MSTR has at least two and a half years of coupon payments, which places its 13.7% current dividend yield in focus. However, they're non-cumulative and were sold at $85 per share when they IPOed, a discount of 15% to their liquidation price. I considered these versus ( STRK ), which pays out an $8 per share annual coupon for a 9.4% current yield. They're also cumulative and trade higher at $85 per share due to this feature. However, I view the risk of a coupon suspension on the non-cumulative STRD as extremely low. Seeking Alpha STRD is the only one of MSTR's outstanding preferreds that are non-cumulative, which does amp up their risk profile. This is compounded by the company's lack of cash flow, with MSTR's currency lying entirely with the value of its commons and preferreds. The company needs to be able to continue to issue these to maintain a going concern with its BaaT strategy. This strategy would fall apart if, after 2.5 years of a BTC winter, MSTR suspends STRD's coupon. I'd view such a move as triggering significant cross-selling, spiking yields across its capital stack, and tanking demand for its preferreds. This would limit the company's access to the depth of institutional capital needed to maintain BTC purchases. Conclusion MSTR's ongoing selloff is either a more permanent reorientation of capital away from the ticker or a transient disallocation that could represent a buying opportunity for BTC bulls. I keep my rating as a hold. Bears would be right to state that even if BTC does expand, the company's mNAV could still trade on the narrower premium it currently does versus its historical average. This would limit overall upside on the commons. STRD provides bulls a way to earn an income with limited risk of a suspension through to 2028. MSTR has also stated that it will liquidate its BTC holdings to maintain its coupon payments in the event its mNAV dips below 1x. This cash reserve, BTC holdings, and continued access to liquidity keep MSTR rated as a hold.

31 Jan 2026, 04:20

Physical Silver prices in Shanghai remain at ATHs despite recent correction

Reports allege that the Silver market is being heavily manipulated worldwide. A recent price analysis of silver revealed that the metal is trading at two different prices simultaneously. The report highlighted that the precious metal is trading at around $92 in the U.S. (COMEX), while physical Silver in Shanghai, China, costs $130, a 40% premium in the Asian country. In the U.S., silver trading is dominated by paper contracts that track the metal’s price, and most of the volume is not real silver being bought or sold. The paper-to-physical ratio of America is estimated at around 350:1, meaning that for every real ounce traded, there are more than 350 paper claims. Since paper trading accounts for a large share of Silver’s trading volume in the U.S., large institutions can sell large contracts of Silver, significantly lowering its floor price even though physical Silver is still tight and does not need to be sold. Physical Silver prices in Shanghai remain at ATHs despite recent correction In Shanghai, where SMM prices reflect actual physical transactions inside China, Silver is currently trading at $120, with Shanghai spot prices bursting to $130. The prices reflect growing demand for physical Silver, but paper trading prices in the U.S. have been massively discounted. The widening gap between Silver prices on the U.S. COMEX and the Shanghai market shows that negative prices are influencing Silver prices in paper trading despite the underlying value of physical silver rising. 🚨JUST IN: Silver has fallen 34% in the last 24 hours, hitting $74 and marking its largest single-day decline on record. pic.twitter.com/eMPZK9tMSP — SolanaFloor (@SolanaFloor) January 30, 2026 In January alone, Silver has risen by more than 60% and logged a 140% gain in 2025. The price of Silver futures contracts has plummeted by a staggering 34% over 24 hours, hitting a $74 low last seen in early January as the market was going higher. The significant drop in Silver futures prices marked the largest single-day decline the metal has ever experienced. Gold also suffered the same fate. The precious metal had nearly doubled over the past 12 months, breaking a record above $5,000 per ounce for the first time and briefly trading near $5,600. After successfully racing to all-time highs, Gold dropped significantly from a high of $5,597.04 to a low of $4,686.12 in less than 24 hours. The dramatic drop experienced by the two metals wiped out over $3 trillion in less than 24 hours. Many investors and retail traders were left disoriented by the speed and scale of the price decline. Experts believe a correction in precious metals was inevitable The metals have been haven assets for investors and traders as geopolitical tensions, currency weakness, record government debt, and trade wars in the U.S., China, and Europe escalated. Which begs the question, why the significant drop? Was it market manipulation? Well, gold and silver had been used by long-term investors as a hedge against inflation. However, by January, the precious metals were no longer simply reflecting geopolitical risk or inflation hedging. They had become part of a broader “risk-off but momentum-on” trade, sitting alongside crowded, leveraged, and flow-driven positioning. Experts highlight that when markets reach this stage, a correction is due any moment, and the market is a ticking time bomb. After the collapse, Ole S Hansen, Saxo Bank’s head of commodity strategy, wrote on X that Silver “can rally but only for so long without eventually killing demand and causing a rush of supply from scrap sellers.” He then said that Gold will remain the ultimate haven. In another X post, Hansen cited COT on Silver and wrote that Hedge Funds and large financial institutions are concerned by worsening trading conditions on Silver. He added that these large market participants reduced their net long positions by one-third in the week to last Tuesday. While some argue that the precious metals market is currently under deep manipulation, others say it was a normal, classic crowded-trade correction. Precious metal prices had risen too far, too fast, triggering profit-taking and forced selling. Similar occurrences have played out repeatedly across various asset classes such as tech stocks, cryptocurrencies, and commodities. Precious metals are not immune to market dynamics. Don’t just read crypto news. Understand it. Subscribe to our newsletter. It's free .

31 Jan 2026, 03:58

Tether US treasury holdings reach record highs, profits fall 23% year-on-year

Tether CEO Paolo Ardoino said the “structure behind” the company’s growth mattered more than its “scale” in 2025, as US Treasury holdings surpassed $122 billion.

31 Jan 2026, 03:50

The Senate has officially approved a bill to prevent a potential US government shutdown

In a late-Friday vote, the US Senate approved a bipartisan government funding package aimed at averting a full federal government shutdown, but lawmakers warned that a short funding lapse this weekend could still occur before the legislation is finalized. Under this agreement, a significant portion of funds was dedicated to Homeland Security. Moreover, the Congress was granted permission to hold talks on new restrictions on federal immigration raids countrywide. Meanwhile, in the event of the approaching potential shutdown , sources with knowledge of the matter mentioned that Trump struck this unusual deal with Senate Democrats in response to the two protesters’ deaths that resulted from federal agents’ action in Minneapolis. Individuals express tension regarding a potential government shutdown Reports from reliable sources indicated that the Trump-Democrats’ deal mandates that funds allocated to Homeland Security remain at their current level for two weeks while lawmakers examine the Democrats’ requests. These requests include: identifying agents, requiring more warrants, and allowing local authorities to assist in investigating incidents. Regarding the bill that was recently approved, sources revealed that it passed 71-29 and has now qualified for presentation to the House, which is scheduled to return on Monday next week. This situation indicates a high likelihood that a temporary partial shutdown will be implemented over the weekend until approval is granted. The news sparked tension among individuals who outlined several impacts of the government shutdown. In an attempt to calm their fears, Trump made clear his intention to prevent a shutdown and encouraged members of both parties to embrace the idea of a much-needed bipartisan ‘YES’ vote. Nonetheless, some Senate Republicans criticized the president’s concessions, consequently postponing the final vote. Their criticism also suggested that debates would occur over the next two weeks On the other hand, several Republicans expressed their belief that amendments to the US Immigration and Customs Enforcement’s operations are essential, even if they may not reach agreement on all Democratic suggestions. Meanwhile, amid uncertainties about the fate of a potential government shutdown, Rand Paul, an American politician serving as the junior US senator from Kentucky, commented on the topic . He asserted that, “I think the last few days have shown some improvement,” further adding that, “I feel like the tone has calmed down a bit in Minnesota.” Democrats raise concerns about the DHS’s funding Despite Paul’s remarks, furious Democrats have strongly opposed allocating funds to the Department of Homeland Security until new restrictions from Congress are in place. Notably, this limitation is set to be imposed on ICE and other federal agencies participating in enforcement actions. Concerning this condition raised, Chuck Schumer, the Senate Minority Leader in the United States Congress, argued that, “These are not extreme demands. They represent basic standards that the American people expect from law enforcement.” In the meantime, Democrats have urged the White House to halt city roving patrols and effectively join forces with local police on immigration arrests. This move involves establishing stricter guidelines for warrants. They also requested a comprehensive set of conduct guidelines to hold agents accountable for violating the rules. To elaborate on this point for better understanding, Schumer mentioned that agents should remove their masks, wear body cameras, and display proper identification, in accordance with standard law enforcement protocols. Don’t just read crypto news. Understand it. Subscribe to our newsletter. It's free .

31 Jan 2026, 03:00

Bitcoin Options Market Plunges into Extreme Fear as Delta Skew Signals Deepening Anxiety

BitcoinWorld Bitcoin Options Market Plunges into Extreme Fear as Delta Skew Signals Deepening Anxiety Global cryptocurrency markets witnessed a stark shift in trader psychology on January 30, 2025, as the Bitcoin options market flashed its most severe fear signal in over a year. This development, occurring against a backdrop of notable price weakness, suggests a rapid reassessment of risk among sophisticated derivatives traders. Consequently, the market’s internal gauges now point toward heightened uncertainty and potential for continued volatility. Bitcoin Options Market Signals a Critical Shift Analysts identified a pivotal change in the Bitcoin options landscape. Specifically, the one-month 25-delta skew, a key metric for measuring market sentiment, surged to 17%. This level represents the highest reading observed in the past twelve months. To provide essential context, a neutral market environment typically sees put options trading at a modest premium of around 6% over comparable call options. Therefore, the current 17% skew indicates a pronounced and expensive demand for downside protection. Market participants are actively paying a significant premium for puts, which profit from price declines, revealing a collective mindset bracing for further weakness. Understanding the Delta Skew Gauge The delta skew serves as a critical fear and greed indicator for institutional and professional traders. Unlike simple price charts, it measures the relative cost of bearish versus bullish bets in the options market. A rising positive skew, as seen currently, signals that traders are prioritizing insurance against a drop. This behavior often precedes or accompanies periods of elevated selling pressure and market stress. Historical data shows that sustained high skew levels can correlate with capitulation events or significant trend reversals. The Mechanics Behind the Market Anxiety This surge in fear did not occur in a vacuum. It coincided with a forceful deleveraging event across cryptocurrency exchanges. Data from derivatives tracking platforms confirms that approximately $860 million in leveraged Bitcoin long positions faced liquidation between January 29 and 30. These liquidations occur when over-leveraged bullish bets get forcibly closed by exchanges due to insufficient collateral, amplifying downward price moves. The scale of this event suggests the recent price correction exceeded the expectations and risk models of a substantial number of traders, triggering a cascade of automated selling. Forced Selling Pressure: Liquidations create immediate, non-discretionary sell orders in the spot and perpetual swap markets. Funding Rate Reset: Extreme moves often normalize excessively high funding rates paid by perpetual swap longs, reducing speculative excess. Margin Call Domino Effect: Large liquidations can trigger volatility that leads to further liquidations in a chain reaction. Historical Context and Comparative Analysis Placing the current 17% skew into a historical framework offers valuable perspective. Similar spikes in the options fear gauge have materialized during past moments of market turmoil. For instance, notable increases occurred during the LUNA/UST collapse in May 2022 and following the FTX exchange failure in November 2022. However, it is crucial to note that a high skew is a sentiment indicator, not a direct price predictor. It reflects prevailing fear, which can sometimes mark localized extremes in pessimism. Analysts often watch for a subsequent normalization of the skew as a potential sign of fear exhaustion and market stabilization. Recent Notable Bitcoin Options Skew Events Date/Period Skew Level Market Context May 2022 ~20%+ LUNA/UST Depeg Crisis Nov 2022 ~18%+ FTX Contagion & Liquidity Crunch Jan 2023 ~15% Post-FTX Low Retest Jan 30, 2025 17% Leverage Unwind & Macro Uncertainty The Role of Macroeconomic Factors Beyond internal market mechanics, external macroeconomic forces are contributing to the cautious stance. Traders are currently evaluating the impact of shifting central bank policies, particularly the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet normalization and interest rate trajectory. Furthermore, traditional equity market volatility and geopolitical tensions influence capital allocation decisions across all risk assets, including cryptocurrencies. The Bitcoin options market, therefore, is not only pricing in crypto-specific risks but also broader financial system uncertainty. Implications for Traders and the Market Structure The convergence of extreme options skew and massive liquidations has several immediate implications. Firstly, the cost of hedging a portfolio against further Bitcoin downside remains elevated, increasing the carrying cost for institutional holders. Secondly, the market structure may have been cleansed of excessive leverage, potentially creating a more stable foundation for any future price recovery. However, the high fear level also indicates that confidence is fragile, and any negative news could trigger an outsized reaction. Market makers and options writers are likely adjusting their risk models, which can lead to wider bid-ask spreads and reduced liquidity for complex options strategies. Pathways Forward from Extreme Fear Market technicians and behavioral analysts outline two primary scenarios following such a sentiment extreme. In the first scenario, the fear proves prescient, and further fundamental or technical deterioration validates the options market’s defensive positioning, leading to additional price discovery to the downside. Alternatively, the extreme fear itself can become a contrarian indicator. If the underlying cause for the sell-off is resolved or if sustained buying pressure emerges, the crowded bearish bet expressed through expensive puts could unwind rapidly. This unwind would involve buying back sold puts, potentially fueling a sharp, short-covering rally. The market’s direction will likely hinge on the flow of spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs), regulatory developments, and broader risk asset performance. Conclusion The Bitcoin options market has delivered a clear and quantifiable signal of extreme fear, marked by a one-year high in the delta skew metric. This sentiment shift, compounded by nearly a billion dollars in long position liquidations, paints a picture of a market undergoing a sharp risk reassessment. While historical parallels exist, each event possesses unique drivers. Moving forward, market participants will monitor whether this fear gauge sustains its elevated level or begins to recede, offering clues about the next phase for Bitcoin’s price action. The current environment underscores the critical importance of derivatives data in understanding the complex psychological undercurrents of the modern cryptocurrency market. FAQs Q1: What does a high Bitcoin options delta skew mean? A1: A high positive delta skew indicates that put options (bearish bets) are trading at a significant premium to call options (bullish bets). This shows traders are willing to pay more for downside protection, signaling widespread fear or expectation of further price declines in the market. Q2: How do leveraged liquidations affect Bitcoin’s price? A2: Leveraged liquidations force-sell an asset when its price drops below a certain threshold, triggering automatic sell orders. This creates concentrated selling pressure in a short time, often accelerating a price decline and increasing market volatility, as seen with the $860 million in liquidations. Q3: Is extreme fear in the options market always a bad sign for price? A3: Not necessarily. While it indicates current pessimism, extreme fear can sometimes signal a potential sentiment capitulation point. Historically, such extremes have occasionally preceded market bottoms when the fearful positioning is unwound, but it is not a guaranteed timing indicator. Q4: What is the difference between the options market and the spot market for Bitcoin? A4: The spot market involves the immediate buying and selling of actual Bitcoin. The options market deals in contracts that give the right, but not the obligation, to buy or sell Bitcoin at a set price in the future. It is primarily used for hedging, speculation, and gauging market sentiment. Q5: What should traders watch following this fear signal? A5: Traders should monitor for a normalization of the delta skew back toward neutral levels, signs of accumulation in the spot market, and stability in funding rates for perpetual swaps. Additionally, broader macroeconomic indicators and traditional market performance will be key factors influencing Bitcoin’s next major trend. This post Bitcoin Options Market Plunges into Extreme Fear as Delta Skew Signals Deepening Anxiety first appeared on BitcoinWorld .

31 Jan 2026, 00:00

Bitcoin’s Digital Gold Thesis Faces Reality As Gold Surges Ahead

Bitcoin was designed to function as digital gold, a decentralised store of value that protects wealth from inflation, currency debasement, and the long-term dominance of the dollar. Currently, the market behaviour is telling a different story as de-dollarisation accelerates and investors seek safety from geopolitical risk and inflation pressures, with gold capturing the bulk of that capital. Is Bitcoin Still A Store Of Value Or A Risk Asset? Crypto investor Himanshu Sinha has stated on X that Bitcoin was supposed to be digital gold because it was built for de-dollarisation, but gold and silver are winning the trade and fulfilling that role. Over the past year, gold has risen by roughly 55%, silver has surged around 150%, while BTC has remained flat. Related Reading: What’s Going On With Bitcoin And The Stock Market? Analyst Breaks It Down The Central banks are the drivers; they don’t want volatility that they can’t manage, and they don’t want an asset that moves in lockstep with the Nasdaq. Instead, they want a controllable monetary infrastructure, and they’re buying gold at the highest rate in history. Just hours ago, gold hit $5,600, then collapsed by 8.21% in a straight vertical drop to $5,140, which is a textbook margin liquidation. At the same time, Microsoft dropped 11.7% as tech sold their gold because it was their only profitable asset, and the investors needed cash fast. This is the same liquidity contagion that used to be seen in the crypto market. According to Sinha, gold cannot be sanctioned in a bar. As the West weaponizes the dollar through sanctions and financial controls, the rest of the world needs a neutral exit. In the end, BTC still proved it is a speculative tool, while gold is proving to be the replacement. Why Gold Is Likely To Keep Outperforming Bitcoin A crypto trader known as Doctor Profit pointed out that nearly a year ago, he shared a Gold versus Bitcoin chart, highlighting that once 0.02 BTC equals 1 ounce of gold, it should mark the top for BTC. Meanwhile, when 0.11 BTC equals 1 ounce of gold, it marks the bottom for BTC. This happened in 2021 during the BTC top and during the BTC bottom in 2022. Related Reading: Expert Who Nailed The Bitcoin Top Now Says Buy At These Levels According to Doctor Profit, the analysis was later proven right this year by calling the BTC top at $125,000 at 0.02 for 1 ounce of gold. Calculating this move, if 1 BTC is $5,500 in gold price and divided by 0.11, it should be $50,000 BTC, which matches the analysis of BTC bottom for this cycle between $50,000 and $60,000 BTC. However, the analysis played out as expected. If calculated with a gold price of $7,000, the equivalent of BTC bottom should be around $63,000, which also aligns with the bottom target. In the Doctor Profit view, gold might continue to outperform BTC in the coming months. Featured image from Getty Images, chart from Tradingview.com