Invest ideasNews
21 Jan 2026, 19:00
Bitcoin Pain May Come First, But Tom Lee Says They’d Still Buy The Dip
Fundstrat’s head of research, Tom Lee, has told investors to prepare for a rough opening to 2026 before conditions improve later in the year. He warned that political friction and tariff talk could trigger meaningful setbacks for both stocks and Bitcoin, even as blockchain and AI remain long-term strengths. Tom Lee’s Call And The Near-Term Picture Lee said a more dovish stance from the US Federal Reserve and the end of quantitative tightening set the stage for gains later on. He put a possible market correction in the mid-teens range, estimating a pullback of about 15% to 20% at one stage. He pointed to geopolitics — including renewed tariff threats — and rising political divides as brakes on an immediate, broad rally. Reports note he still expects a late-year rebound if policy eases and liquidity returns. Reports say the White House’s selective support for certain industries could tilt which sectors lead the recovery. 2026 is shaping up to be similar to 2025: – good fundamentals – tariff escalations and White House picking “winners and losers”– political divisiveness– tailwinds from AI and blockchainBUT: dovish Fed now and QT over And so a painful decline may lie ahead but we would… https://t.co/7Mp3rcOcP1 — Thomas (Tom) Lee (not drummer) FSInsight.com (@fundstrat) January 20, 2026 Deleveraging Still Hitting Crypto Liquidity Lee argued that recent squeezes have left crypto markets fragile. Market makers have been weakened by repeated forced exits, and that has made price moves jumpier. He also noted that a fresh Bitcoin all-time high would be an important signal that the market has worked through those stresses, though he didn’t repeat earlier extreme price targets in his latest remarks. Reports stress the difference between a technical bounce and a move backed by wider adoption and deeper institutional flows. Heavy Bitcoin Selloff Despite warnings that a painful decline may still unfold, some investors are not backing away entirely. Reports say parts of the market continue to view sharp pullbacks as buying chances rather than exit signals. Even with uncertainty around tariffs and global politics, Lee and his camp believes disciplined dip buying — spread out over time — offers better odds than trying to time a perfect bottom while fear dominates headlines. “And so a painful decline may lie ahead but we would ‘buy the dip'”, Lee said in an X post. Reports indicate that more than $1.8 billion was liquidated over a 48-hour stretch as bitcoin lost ground. Bitcoin sank to roughly $88,500 during the slide, and Coinglass data showed the bulk of wiped positions were longs — a sign that traders had been positioned for higher prices. The selloff erased gains made earlier in the year and pulled crypto capitalization sharply lower, in one of the biggest drops since mid-November. Featured image from Allrecipes, chart from TradingView
21 Jan 2026, 18:41
Evening digest: Bitcoin bleeds below $88K, Trump’s Davos speech, JPMorgan’s big warning
Wednesday came with a a fast-spreading shockwave across geopolitics, markets, and human rights. Donald Trump ignited transatlantic tensions by declaring the US Greenland’s sole guardian, triggering EU retaliation. At Davos, Jamie Dimon torched a proposed credit-card rate cap as economically ruinous. Meanwhile, Amnesty International detailed Iran’s lethal crackdown on bystanders, and global risk aversion sent Bitcoin sharply lower. Trump declares US sole guardian of Greenland US President Trump doubled down on Greenland acquisition at Davos on Wednesday, insisting America alone can secure the Arctic territory. The remarks triggered the EU Parliament’s nuclear option: freezing the $1 trillion US-EU trade deal indefinitely. Though Trump claimed he won’t use military force, his framing painted Washington as Greenland’s only viable steward against Chinese and Russian threats. The ultimatum backfired spectacularly. Bernd Lange, chair of Parliament’s trade committee, suspended ratification of the Turnberry agreement, vowing no progress until Trump abandons coercion. Britain’s Keir Starmer flatly rejected acquiescence under tariff threats. France’s Macron proposed NATO military exercises in Greenland as a riposte. JPMorgan’s Dimon fires back at credit card cap JPMorgan’s Jamie Dimon unloaded on Trump’s proposed 10% credit card interest rate cap at Davos on Wednesday, calling it an “economic disaster” that would strip access for 80% of Americans. The banking kingpin argued the administration has it backwards: price caps don’t lower costs, they shrink supply. Banks would slash credit lines rather than absorb margin compression, hitting mom-and-pop retailers, restaurants, and municipalities hardest when families miss utility payments. Dimon’s surgical strike carried a sharp edge of mockery. He suggested piloting the cap in Vermont and Massachusetts, home to progressive senators Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren, knowing full well that leftists “will learn a real lesson” once credit markets seize up. Iran’s killing spree extends to bystanders Iran’s security forces have massacred thousands beyond protest lines, shooting art students heading home, 16-year-old girls observing demonstrations from sidewalks, and shopkeepers sheltering teenagers. Twenty-two-year-old art student Arash collapsed lifeless after a shotgun blast in Tehran despite being a bystander on January 8; his friend watched security personnel in dark uniforms open fire indiscriminately at crowds. Amnesty International documented unlawful use of lethal force coordinated nationwide: snipers positioned on rooftops, armed vehicles, metal-pellet ammunition targeting heads and torsos. An Iranian official confirmed at least 5,000 deaths, including 500 security personnel, though doctors inside Iran cite 16,500-18,000 killed with 330,000 injured. Bitcoin bleeds below $88K amid geopolitical chaos Bitcoin crashed below $88,000 Wednesday , erasing a $10,000 rally from the year’s opening as traders bailed on overleveraged long positions amid geopolitical uncertainty. The worldʼs largest crypto tumbled 4% to intraday lows near $87,800 after briefly flirting with $90,000, triggering a cascade of forced liquidations totaling $1.8 billion across crypto markets in 48 hours. The sell-off came after a brutal day across Wall Street with S&P 500 and Nasdaq tanking 2%+ (worst session since October), while gold surged 2.18% as capital stampeded toward havens. QCP Capital pegged Bitcoin as a “high-beta risk asset,” vulnerable to Trump’s tariff escalation and the EU’s frozen trade talks with Washington. The post Evening digest: Bitcoin bleeds below $88K, Trump's Davos speech, JPMorgan's big warning appeared first on Invezz
21 Jan 2026, 18:00
Wall Street pulls back from Bitcoin arbitrage as returns sink to multi-year lows
The cash-and-carry arbitrage that used to be a goldmine for big desks is now barely hanging on. This was the play where companies would buy Bitcoin on the spot market and short it on the futures side, locking in the price difference as profit. For a while, it was the go-to move. But that’s not the case anymore. The trade is getting crushed by low yields, tighter spreads, and shrinking interest from U.S. institutions. Bitcoin futures open interest on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) has dropped below Binance for the first time since 2023. Wall Street used to favor CME for this trade, especially after spot Bitcoin ETFs got approved in early 2024. But the more they jumped in, the worse the returns got. Everyone crowding into the same trade killed it. Now it barely covers basic costs like funding and execution. CME volumes slump while Binance holds firm in futures The returns that once hit double digits have now crashed. One-month annualized yield from the strategy sits around 5%, which is one of the lowest points in years. “It was 17% this time last year,” said Greg Magadini, who tracks derivatives at Amberdata, adding that it’s now closer to 4.7%. That barely beats one-year Treasuries, which offer about 3.5%. It’s not worth the risk anymore, especially for funds that aren’t here for crypto gains, just stable returns. CME’s Bitcoin futures open interest has fallen hard, from more than $21 billion at its peak to just under $10 billion. Meanwhile, Binance is sitting steady at around $11 billion, based on Coinglass data. It’s not that institutions have totally dumped crypto. It’s that U.S. hedge funds and big accounts are stepping back from this specific trade after Bitcoin prices topped out in October 2025. Instead of regular futures, traders are now leaning toward perpetual futures, or perps. These are contracts with no expiry, and they settle and price continuously throughout the day. Binance dominates this space. They pull the largest volumes in the crypto world. CME tried to catch up in 2025 by launching smaller and longer-term futures contracts, some that can even be held up to five years, but the volumes still don’t compare. “CME has historically been the venue of choice for institutions and cash and carry arbitrage,” said James Harris, CEO of Tesseract, a digital asset firm. But now that Binance is overtaking it, he sees it as a “tactical reset.” Not a full exit from crypto, but a reaction to thin profits and low liquidity. A note from CME Group said 2025 marked a key turning point. As regulation got clearer, big investors started looking beyond Bitcoin, into Ether, XRP, and Solana. “We averaged around $1 billion in daily notional OI for Ether in 2024, and in 2025 that number increased to almost $5 billion,” CME noted. Even though Federal Reserve rate cuts have lowered borrowing costs, they haven’t sparked any big bounce in crypto. Since the October 10 crash, demand for borrowing is weak. DeFi yields are low. Traders are hedging more and using less leverage. Le Shi from Auros, a Hong Kong market maker, said the market now gives players more tools, like ETFs and direct exchange access, to bet on price direction. That competition cuts into price gaps between venues, which kills arbitrage. “There’s a self-balancing effect,” Le said. As traders look for the cheapest place to trade, spreads close up, and cash-and-carry trades stop making sense. That’s pushed firms like 319 Capital to ditch the easy profits and start hunting for more complicated strategies. Their CIO, Bohumil Vosalik, said the party’s over. The market now belongs to those ready to dig deeper. Don’t just read crypto news. Understand it. Subscribe to our newsletter. It's free .
21 Jan 2026, 17:50
Iran’s crypto market hits $7.78 billion as central bank and Revolutionary Guards expand usage
Iran’s central bank purchased more than $500 million worth of digital currency last year as it struggles to handle a worsening money crisis and get around American sanctions, according to a report from blockchain research firm Elliptic. The bank made two separate purchases of Tether’s USDT in April and May 2025, Elliptic announced on Wednesday. The company based its findings on leaked papers and its own investigation. Through June 2025, most of the money went to an Iranian digital currency exchange where people could keep their USDT, swap it for other digital currencies, or exchange it for Iranian rials, Elliptic reported. Things changed after hackers who support Israel broke into that exchange in June. Following the attack, USDT was converted into various crypto assets and moved across various blockchain networks. Iran has been mostly locked out of worldwide money markets and banks since 2018. That was when President Donald Trump walked away from a major nuclear agreement and put strict penalties on the country. Limits on Iran’s oil sales have hurt the country’s ability to get foreign money. Oil exports are Iran’s biggest way of earning money from other countries. Iran also cannot bring home money from its exports and has been kicked out of the SWIFT banking system. These problems have made it hard for the central bank to protect the value of the rial and fight rising prices. Elliptic report, seen by The Guardian, said the central bank appears to be using the digital currency to stop the rial from losing more value and to handle payments for trade with other countries. This method lets Iran build what Elliptic called a “sanctions-proof banking system” and “a shadow money layer that can hold US dollar value where US officials cannot reach it.” Iran’s digital currency market reaches $7.78 billion Another blockchain research company called Chainalysis put out a report last week saying Iran’s crypto sector was worth $7.78 billion in 2025. Growing numbers of Iranians are trying to protect their money from runaway inflation and looking for options besides increasingly expensive dollars and euros. The Iranian rial has dropped about 90 percent in value since 2018, and the decline has gotten worse as conflicts in the region have grown. Iranian citizens are dealing with inflation rates between 40 and 50 percent. Iran’s digital currency activity reached over $7.78 billion in 2025, growin g fa ste r th an the previous year. The activity shows big jumps that line up with major events in the country and the region. A smaller increase happened during a 12-day conflict in June 2025 between Iran and Israel. That conflict saw joint American and Israeli attacks against Iran’s nuclear weapons and missile programs. Hackers also attacked Nobitex, Iran’s biggest digital currency exchange, and Bank Sepah, Iran’s oldest bank that the Revolutionary Guards use heavily. Hackers broke into Iranian state television too, showing footage of women’s protests and telling Iranians to go into the streets. Revolutionary Guard dominates crypto activity Addresses connected to the Revolutionary Guards have grown over time as a portion of Iran’s overall crypto activity. They made up more than 50 percent of the total values received in the last three months of 2025. In 2024, the amount of money received by Revolutionary Guards’ addresses reached over $2 billion, jumping to more than $3 billion in 2025. Recent information shows a big change in digital currency behavior during the current mass protests. Comparing late 2025 with late December 2025 to early January 2026, there were major increases in both the average daily dollar amount moved and the number of daily transfers to personal wallets. The biggest sign is the jump in withdrawals from Iranian exchanges to personal Bitcoin wallets. This increase suggest s Ir anians are taking control of Bitcoin at a much higher rate during protests. Many see Bitcoin’s ability to resist censorship and stay under personal control as valuable when people might need to leave quickly or work outside government money channels. Get seen where it counts. Advertise in Cryptopolitan Research and reach crypto’s sharpest investors and builders.
21 Jan 2026, 17:30
Bitcoin’s Sharp Reversal Leaves Over $800 Million Liquidated In 1 Day
Bitcoin tumbled sharply this week and erased the gains it had made in 2026. Reports from CoinGlass show that over the past 24 hours, 167,513 traders were forced out of their positions, with total liquidations reaching $857 million, with most of those losses coming from long bets. The price slid below the key $88,000 area on major exchanges as traders were forced out of leveraged positions. Related Reading: Bitcoin Senses Risk As Trump Balks At Europe With Major Tariffs Liquidations And Quick Drop According to CoinGlass and market trackers, the liquidations were concentrated in long positions, which amplified the fall and made the move faster than a simple sell-off would have been. Crypto market value fell by hundreds of millions over the same short span. Markets Turned Risk-Averse As Tariff Threats Spread Reports note that renewed tariff threats from US President Donald Trump toward some European countries set off a fresh “Sell America” trade, which pushed investors away from US assets and toward safer bets. Stocks fell and the dollar weakened. At the same time, traders were watching big moves in Japan’s bond market, where yields jumped sharply, increasing pressure on global liquidity. Those bond moves are important because they can force carry trades to unwind, pulling money out of risk assets — including crypto. A Tug Between Liquidity And Safe Havens The sell-off did not happen for only one reason. Reports point to a mix of political shocks, bond-market stress, and a wave of forced liquidations as the main drivers. As cash flowed into safe havens, gold surged to fresh highs while crypto lost ground. Many investors treated Bitcoin like a risky asset in this episode, selling it to cover losses or margin calls elsewhere. Different trackers gave slightly different figures on total market losses and exact liquidations over 24 and 48 hours. That is normal when markets move fast and data is pulled from different exchanges and windows. Still, the broad picture was clear: a fast, leveraged unwind sent prices lower and erased the year’s gains for Bitcoin. Related Reading: Trove’s New Token Craters 95%, Sparking Investor Revolt Markets Will Watch Liquidity And Diplomacy Looking ahead, investors will likely watch three things closely: moves in global bond markets, any escalation or de-escalation around the tariff threats tied to Greenland, and whether forced selling slows. If liquidity conditions calm, risk assets can recover more easily. If they keep tightening, the pressure on crypto and stocks could persist. Featured image from Pexels, chart from TradingView
21 Jan 2026, 17:26
Davos shifts tone as Brian Armstrong pushes Bitcoin into global policy debate
Coinbase’s top executive made waves at the World Economic Forum in Davos on Wednesday by bringing Bitcoin directly into policy discussions with global financial leaders. Attendees were waiting for US President Donald Trump to speak at the event, and many were anticipating his usual spontaneous remarks about foreign relations and trade policies when Brian Armstrong showed up. French central banker clashes with crypto CEO The head of Coinbase got into a direct debate with François Villeroy de Galhau, who leads France’s central bank, about who really controls money. “I trust more independent central banks with a democratic mandate than private issuers of Bitcoin,” the French banking official said during the Davos talk, as reported by Gareth Jenkinson. His statement reflected what many central bankers have said for years, that government institutions have more legitimacy than systems nobody controls. Armstrong retaliated by reframing the debate. He asserted that political power is not as significant as who actually controls the money supply. “Bitcoin is a decentralized protocol. There’s actually no issuer of it. So, in the sense that central banks have independence, Bitcoin is even more independent. No country, company, or individual controls it in the world,” Armstrong explained. The back-and-forth represented something unusual at the World Economic Forum. For the first time in years, Bitcoin itself became the topic of serious debate, not just general discussion about blockchain or digital currencies. In previous years, WEF discussions largely centered on financial systems that governments and banks could regulate, including central bank digital currencies. Bitcoin’s challenge to state control over money was usually left out of the conversation. That began to change at WEF 2026, in part because journalists on the ground pressed leaders with more direct questions. During the “Crypto at a Crossroads” panel, reporters questioned Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong on whether the U.S. would actually move forward with a strategic Bitcoin reserve , an idea some officials have recently floated. In response, Armstrong presented Bitcoin as a worldwide monetary network that operates on its own rules and that governments can no longer afford to ignore or avoid, rather than as a speculative wager for rapid riches. The Coinbase executive later pointed out on social media that people assume today’s financial system is the only option. However, he noted that the current setup only started in 1971 when President Nixon ended the gold standard. However, Trump’s expected speech remained the main event that many attendees looked forward to, given his track record of making unexpected statements about tariffs, trade deals, and foreign policy. Trump arrived in Switzerland for Davos after his plane experienced some issues, according to reports on social media. Banking lobby accused of blocking crypto competition through regulation Away from the main conference, Armstrong kept criticizing traditional finance. In a CNBC interview, he accused American banking groups of using regulations to crush competition, especially regarding stablecoin rules. He talked about the CLARITY Act, which has stalled in Congress. Armstrong claimed that banks were lobbying to prevent crypto companies from offering interest payments to customers, not because it creates financial risks, but because it threatens their business. “Their lobbying groups and their trade arms are coming in and trying to ban the competition,” Armstrong told the network. He argued that crypto businesses should get fair treatment under regulations instead of being blocked by established banks. Later, Armstrong said on social media that as worries about the global financial system continue to grow, all parties are now searching for broadly applicable answers, particularly for Americans. Hedge fund veteran Ray Dalio expressed similar concerns during Davos Week, warning CNBC that “the monetary order is collapsing” due to changes in central banks’ reserve management practices and growing debt. According to Dalio, investors are increasingly turning to digital assets like Bitcoin and gold due to their mistrust of conventional currencies. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stated in 2025 that confiscated Bitcoin will be transferred to the U.S. strategic reserve, suggesting that Bitcoin is gradually making its way into official thinking. This suggests that officials are starting to view Bitcoin as a long-term financial asset, even though it does not equate to full government backing. When considered collectively, the discussions at Davos indicate a distinct change. Bitcoin is no longer only an outsider disregarded by influential organizations. It is currently being discussed in the same systems that previously opted to ignore it in an uncomfortable but important way. If you're reading this, you’re already ahead. Stay there with our newsletter .
