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21 Jan 2026, 12:30
Dutch investors ramp up indirect crypto exposure to $1.4B
Dutch indirect crypto investments have surged to record levels, buoyed by households, pension funds, and a small number of high-profile securities, according to new data from the Netherlands’ central bank. The Dutch central bank said total indirect crypto securities holdings in all sectors reached about $1.4 billion by October, an uptick from just $94 million in 2020. Despite the growth, the bank reiterated that indirect crypto investments account for only 0.03% of the Netherlands’ total securities holdings. The analysis focused on three categories of instruments: exchange-traded funds, exchange-traded notes, and so-called crypto treasury shares. ETFs and ETNs track the price of crypto-assets, while treasury shares represent equity in companies that hold crypto-assets on their balance sheets. Dutch household and pension funds buy DAT stocks The central bank’s report examined only investments in securities linked to crypto-assets, not direct ownership of tokens. It also explained that the increase over the past five years came from the uptrend in valuations of the underlying assets. Bitcoin’s price rose by 72% over the five-year period covered by the analysis, before falling to a year-on-year low towards the end of 2025. That volatility inflated the value of existing holdings, even as issuance of new crypto securities also increased, the bank said. By the end of October 2025, Dutch households held about €182 million in crypto ETFs and €213 million in ETNs. Investment funds also had notable exposure to crypto ETFs, holding around €40 million worth. Pension funds acquired €287 million in such shares to become the single largest institutional group in that category. Households also held €243 million in digital asset treasury company stocks. Dutch crypto treasuries provide investment opportunities for households Although the number of crypto-linked securities available to Dutch investors has grown in recent years, just seven specific securities account for about 70% of all indirect crypto holdings in the Netherlands. Last year, Dutch crypto firm Amdax raised €30 million, or about $35 million, to launch the Amsterdam Bitcoin Treasury Strategy, known as AMBTS. AMBTS is a Bitcoin treasury company with ambitions to accumulate up to 1% of the total Bitcoin supply. The firm has said it plans to use capital markets to steadily increase Bitcoin per share, with a long-term valuation target of around $26 billion at current prices. Another DAT is Treasury BV, which raised $147 million in a private funding round led by Winklevoss Capital and Nakamoto Holdings last September. The funding allowed the company to acquire more than 1,000 Bitcoins in pursuit of becoming the largest publicly traded European bitcoin treasury, Cryptopolitan reported . The company, led by chief executive Khing Oei, entered into a binding agreement with investment firm MKB Nedsense NV to execute a reverse listing on Euronext Amsterdam. As part of the transaction, MKB Nedsense transferred all its assets and liabilities to its largest shareholder, Value8 NV, before issuing new shares to the treasury’s investors. December inflation slumps to 2.8% The expansion of indirect crypto holdings has taken place against an economic backdrop of easing inflation pressures in the Netherlands. Statistics Netherlands reported that consumer goods and services were 2.8% more expensive last December than a year earlier. That compares with a year-on-year inflation rate of 2.9% in November. The December inflation figure matched a flash estimate published earlier in January. Month-on-month, consumer prices were virtually unchanged in December compared with November, according to the data. Petrol prices ended the year 2.4% lower overall, but rose by 5.6 cents on January 1 after tax relief introduced following Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine was partially withdrawn. Diesel prices also increased, climbing by 3.6 cents as the government subsidies were rolled back. With December figures available, Statistics Netherlands calculated average inflation for 2025 at 3.3%, meaning consumer prices were, on average, 3.3% higher than in 2024. The data were based on the consumer price index, which tracks both year-on-year and month-on-month price changes. Using the harmonized index of consumer prices, inflation in the Netherlands stood at 2.5% year-on-year in December, down slightly from 2.6% in November. In the euro area, inflation eased from 2.1% in November to 2.0% in December. Claim your free seat in an exclusive crypto trading community - limited to 1,000 members.
21 Jan 2026, 12:27
Polygon price prediction 2026-2032: Will POL recover its ATH soon?
Key Takeaways : POL price faces bearish pressure toward $0.133. Polygon price prediction for 2026 expects the price of POL to surge toward $0.28. By 2032, we expect the POL price to record a maximum price of $1.19. Polygon, an Ethereum side chain and layer two scaling solution, has experienced substantial uptake by enterprises and industries in the last year. Consequently, numerous analysts eagerly anticipate the future valuation of its native cryptocurrency, POL. This raises the question: Can POL’s price reach $1? This forecast for Polygon’s price examines factors such as ecosystem trends, adoption rates, underlying technology, and technical analysis to project the POL price prediction from 2026 to 2032. Overview Cryptocurrency Polygon Ticker Symbol POL Rank 58 Current Price $0.133 Price change 24H -0.1% Market cap $1.27 Billion Circulating supply 10.56 Billion POL Trading volume 24h $72.25 Million (+26.4%) All-time high $1.29, March 14, 2024 All-time low $0.098, January 1, 2026 POL price prediction: Technical analysis Metric Value Current Price $0.133 Price Prediction $ 0.1248 (-1.07%) Fear & Greed Index 26 (Fear) Sentiment Bearish Volatility 6.60% (High) Green Days 13/30 (43%) 50-Day SMA $ 0.1242 200-Day SMA $ 0.2038 14-Day RSI 57.59 (Neutral) Polygon technical analysis: POL price faces bearish pressure toward $0.133 POL price analysis shows bearish trend toward $0.133 Resistance for POL is present at $0.1504 Support for POL/USD is present at $0.1252 The POL price analysis for 21 January confirms that POL faces decreasing volatility as it declines toward $0.133. However, buyers are aiming for a recovery rally POL price analysis 1-day chart: Polygon faces selling pressure around $0.133 POL price is facing a surge as sellers pushed the price toward $0.133. POL price is aiming for a hold around the immediate support channels. The 24-hour volume dropped toward $24.19 million, showing declining interest in trading activity. The POL price is trading at $0.133, declining over 0.1% in the last 24 hours. POLUSDT chart by TradingView The RSI-14 trend line has dropped from its previous level and hovers below the midline at around 48, showing that sellers are aiming to control price momentum. The SMA-14 level suggests volatility in the next few hours. POL/USD 4-hour price chart: Bears aim for a hold below EMA trend lines The 4-hour POL price chart suggests POL continues to experience bearish activity around EMA lines, creating a negative sentiment on the price chart. As the price continues to face resistance near the Fib level, bears prepare for a domination by holding the price below the EMA20 trend line. POLUSDT chart by TradingView The BoP indicator trades in a positive region at 0.46, hinting that buyers are trying to build pressure near resistance levels and boost an upward correction. Additionally, the MACD trend line has formed green candles above the signal line, and the indicator aims for a positive momentum, strengthening bullish positions. POL technical indicators: Levels and action Daily Simple Moving Average (SMA) Period Value Action SMA 3 $ 0.1582 SELL SMA 5 $ 0.1318 SELL SMA 10 $ 0.1203 BUY SMA 21 $ 0.1161 BUY SMA 50 $ 0.1242 SELL SMA 100 $ 0.1615 SELL SMA 200 $ 0.2038 SELL Daily Exponential Moving Average (EMA) Period Value Action EMA 3 $ 0.1153 BUY EMA 5 $ 0.1268 SELL EMA 10 $ 0.1547 SELL EMA 21 $ 0.1881 SELL EMA 50 $ 0.2111 SELL EMA 100 $ 0.2201 SELL EMA 200 $ 0.2504 SELL What to expect from POL price analysis next? The hourly price chart confirms that bears are making efforts to prevent the POL price from an immediate surge. However, if POL’s price successfully breaks above $0.1504, it may surge higher and touch the resistance at $0.1677. POLUSDT chart by TradingView If bulls cannot initiate a surge, POL’s price may drop below the immediate support line at $0.1252, resulting in a correction to $0.0984. Is POL a good investment? POL token can be a good investment option in the long run as the project develops a roadmap for its Polygon 2.0 version. Polygon collaborates with diverse industries to enhance adoption, focusing on NFT solutions and Ethereum scalability. Partnerships include Starbucks for an NFT loyalty program and collaborations with Adidas, Prada, and Disney to develop NFT offerings. Why is the POL price down today? Following overall volatility in the market, POL price faced increased selling pressure around the $0.133 level. As a result, sellers are aiming for a breakdown. What is the POL price prediction for 2026? The Polygon price prediction for 2026 expects the POL price to record a maximum level of $0.28. Will POL price touch $1? Yes, POL price might touch the $1 milestone by the end of 2032. However, this depends on the future market sentiment and buying demand. Will POL Price Reach $10? If everything remains good and POL gains regulatory recognition, its price might surpass $10 by 2040. Is POL a good long-term investment? As Polygon continues to expand its offerings, it gains a significant position in the altcoin market. Hence, POL can be a good long-term investment option. Recent news/ Opinions on POL Telcoin’s Nebraska-chartered bank issued $10M eUSD on Polygon, marking the first U.S.-regulated stablecoin natively on a public chain. POL price prediction January 2026 Analysts expect a steady surge in crypto market prices in January. We expect POL to record a minimum price of $0.1 and a maximum price of $0.17, with an average of $0.15 in January. POL Price Prediction Potential low Potential average Potential high POL Price Prediction January 2026 $0.1 $0.15 $0.17 POL price prediction 2026 Ethereum fees increase dramatically during a bull market, making it too expensive for regular cryptocurrency users. That’s why Polygon became popular during the last bull market. But this time, in 2026, Polygon has tougher competition from Arbitrum, Optimism, and Starknet. However, Polygon’s Proof of Stake (PoS) chain can handle up to 65,000 transactions per second (TPS) and is cheaper than chains like Arbitrum and Optimism. Hence, increasing adoption might drive up its price in 2026. In 2026, the price of Polygon is forecasted to reach a minimum level of $0.1. It’s anticipated to achieve a maximum level of $0.28, with an average price of $0.22 throughout the year. POL Price Prediction Potential low Potential average Potential high POL Price Prediction 2026 $0.1 $0.22 $0.28 POL Price Predictions 2027-2032 Year Minimum Price Average Price Maximum Price 2027 0.23 0.25 0.3 2028 0.32 0.37 0.42 2029 0.43 0.49 0.56 2030 0.57 0.64 0.72 2031 0.72 0.81 0.96 2032 0.96 1.07 1.19 Pol price forecast for 2027 Polygon has made Polygon zkEVM available to everyone, making it one of the first ZK Rollups to do so. This is a big step forward for Polygon and gives it an advantage. With its growing use by businesses, innovative technology, and past success, Polygon could reach a new all-time high in 2027. According to the forecast and technical analysis, Polygon’s price is expected to hit a minimum of $0.23 in 2027. The maximum price projection is $0.30, with an average value of $0.25. Polygon (POL) price prediction 2028 In 2028, one Polygon is anticipated to reach a minimum price of $0.32. The maximum projection for POL price is $0.42, with an average price of $0.37 for the year. Polygon price prediction 2029 For 2029, the price of Polygon is predicted to attain a minimum value of $0.43. The maximum value could rise to $0.56, with an average trading price of $0.49 throughout the year. Polygon price prediction 2030 In 2030, Polygon’s price is forecasted to bottom out at $0.57. The maximum possible level for POL price could hit $0.72, with an average forecast price of $0.64. Polygon (POL) price prediction 2031 Looking ahead to 2031, Polygon’s price is expected to reach a minimum of $0.72. The maximum projection is $0.96, with an average trading price of $0.81. Polygon price prediction 2032 For 2032, the price of Polygon is predicted to attain a minimum value of $0.96. The maximum value could rise to $1.19, with an average trading price of $1.07 throughout the year. POL price prediction 2026-2032 POL price prediction by experts Firm Name 2026 2027 Coincodex $0.3294 $0.2629 CoinDCX $0.42 $0.5 Cryptopolitan’s POL price prediction Cryptopolitan is bullish on POL’s future market potential. In 2026, the price of Polygon is forecasted to reach a minimum level of $0.1. It’s anticipated to achieve a maximum level of $0.28, with an average price of $0.22 throughout the year. By the end of 2032, the price of POL is anticipated to surge toward the high of $1.19, with an average trading price of $1.07 POL historic price sentiment POL price history | Coinmarketcap POL debuted in 2019, initially valued below a cent. Maintained a steady level of around $0.02 for the following two years. POL’s rebranding to Polygon in 2021 fueled growth, surpassing $1 in May and peaking at an all-time high of $2.92 on December 27. In 2022, POL struggled, falling below $1 in May, under $0.50 in June, briefly rebounding above $1 in August, and ending the year at $0.7585, down 70%. In the following year, 2023, Polygon saw mixed performance, breaking $1 in February but dropping to $0.5593 in June after Crypto.com news. It peaked at $0.8775 in July, fell to $0.4946 in September, and recovered to $0.9789 by November. POL rose from $0.8514 in January to $1.4 in March but declined below $0.8 by May and hit lows near $0.4 in June and July. It consolidated between $0.4 and $0.6 in August and September, briefly surging above $0.45. In October, it dipped to $0.39 but surged to $0.63 in November following Donald Trump’s victory, ending December bearish at $0.477. At the start of January 2025, POL opened the market at $0.4511; in February, it hovered between $0.3068 – $0.3455. However, by the end of February, the price of POL dropped toward $0.25. In March, the price of POL declined heavily as it dropped below the crucial $0.2 level. In April, the POL price continued to hover below $0.2. However, as the trade war between the US and China eased, POL price jumped above resistance levels and made a high at $0.26 near the end of April. In early May, the price of Polygon declined slightly, reaching the ground at $0.21. However, it later surged toward the high of $0.27 in mid May. In early June, the price of POL sharply dropped toward the $0.2 low. By the end of June, POL declined toward $0.17. In July, POL surged toward $0.26 but declined sharply toward $0.19 in early August. The price of POL surged toward $0.26 in August. But it later consolidated around $0.25 in September. In early October, the price of Polygon surged toward the high of $0.25. POL price ended the month on a bearish note at around $0.17. By the end of November, the price of POL declined toward $0.12. POL price ended 2025 on a bearish note as it declined toward $0.1.
21 Jan 2026, 12:20
BYD defies tariffs to dominate Mexico’s EV and plug-in hybrid sales
Chinese carmakers are swarming Mexico, and BYD is right at the front. While the Mexican government just rolled out steep new tariffs on Chinese imports, those barriers haven’t stopped BYD from tightening its grip on Mexico’s electric vehicle market. Mexico City streets are now packed with battery-powered BYD compacts. Seven out of every ten EVs or plug-in hybrids sold in the country now carry a BYD badge, according to Bloomberg. EVs and plug-ins already make up 9% of all new-car sales in Mexico. But most big automakers still don’t bother with this space. BYD , meanwhile, doubled its Mexican sales last year. Its small, cheap EVs are drawing in middle-class drivers who are tired of paying for gas and want a decent car that works. BYD dealers push ahead despite new 50% import tariffs President Claudia Sheinbaum didn’t hide her frustration. In September, she pushed for new tariffs as high as 50% on cars from countries without free trade deals, and that includes China. Lawmakers approved it in December. It kicked in on January 1. Still, it’s not clear if it’s doing anything. BYD dealers aren’t sweating. One of them, David González, said they ran year-end discounts to push sales before the tariffs hit. But even now, he said BYD probably won’t raise prices more than 15,000 pesos. Most of the cost will be absorbed. That confidence isn’t just marketing. Roberto Rocha, the CEO of Vemo, a taxi and EV charging company that works with Uber, said BYD and JAC, another Chinese brand, can survive even if tariffs stay at 50%. “We believe the big players are going to continue betting on the market and they’re going to have to absorb some of those increases,’’ he said. There’s no real sign that demand will slow down. Eugenio Grandio, who runs Mexico’s electromobility association and used to work at Tesla , said legacy carmakers have themselves to blame. “Non-Chinese manufacturers have invested very little in bringing these technologies to Mexico,” he said. “They say there’s no demand, and then they complain that the Chinese are selling them. So is there demand, or isn’t there?” EV incentives, cheap loans, and lack of rivals give BYD the upper hand Mexican buyers aren’t just driven by price tags. The government is giving EV buyers all kinds of breaks. No federal tax at the time of purchase. Lower income taxes. Annual fees waived in some states. No emissions tests. Plus, EVs can drive every day, even during air quality restrictions that block other vehicles. Between 2025 and 2030, buyers can get an immediate tax deduction of up to 86% of the car’s value under “Plan Mexico.” It’s not just tax perks. Loans are easy to get. Nearly 63% of Chinese cars bought in Mexico in 2025 were financed, up from 56% the year before. That’s even higher than the national average. BYD loans come from BBVA and Banorte with rates between 8.5% and 12.9%. That’s lower than the market average of 13% to 14%. Some loans even go as low as 7.9%, according to a BYD statement. And yes, these cars are everywhere now. The BYD Dolphin Mini, their most popular model, is already outselling Chevrolet’s Spark EUV, and it’s $2,000 cheaper. You’ll find BYD showrooms in business districts, ads at Mexico City’s airport, and their cars zipping around neighborhoods like Condesa and Polanco. Even people from rural states are reportedly checking them out. None of the legacy brands are even close. GM sold only 1,540 EVs in Mexico last year. Ford’s Mach E sells for $10,000 more than it does in the U.S. Nissan gave up selling the Leaf three years ago. Tesla barely sold 4,000 cars in 2024, which is about one-quarter of BYD’s volume for that year alone. It’s not just EVs either. Gas-powered Chinese models are also flooding the market. China now holds a 20% share of Mexico’s overall new-car market, up big from five years ago. That’s partly thanks to overcapacity at home, plus Chinese subsidies and export incentives. BYD will start bringing its fast-charging system to Mexico in April. It gives 400 kilometers of range in five minutes. “If you go to any city in Mexico, you can see that BYD is the darling,” said Stella Li, president of BYD Americas, during a press conference in Zhengzhou. “Every time we have a weekend event, it’s full of people. They dream about their own BYD car.” Sharpen your strategy with mentorship + daily ideas - 30 days free access to our trading program
21 Jan 2026, 12:10
Scott Bessent dismisses Denmark’s $100 million Treasury selloff as irrelevant
U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent looked dead at the cameras today and said, “Denmark’s investment in U.S. Treasury bonds, like Denmark itself, is irrelevant.” Scott is of course in Davos and was asked about AkademikerPension, a Danish pension fund, dumping $100 million worth of Treasurys. His answer made it clear he couldn’t care less. This happened as markets were already going haywire. President Donald Trump, now in his second term, had just threatened tariffs on eight European countries. He said 10% duties would start February 1, and could rise to 25%. His reason? Europe won’t back off Greenland . Stocks dropped, bond prices fell, and yields spiked. Everyone scrambled. And then Denmark made its little bond sale. Bessent downplays Europe’s bond threats and hits Deutsche Bank AkademikerPension’s chief investor, Anders Schelde, said they sold the Treasurys because of “poor government finances” in the U.S. But Scott wasn’t having it.“That is less than $100 million,” he said. “They’ve been selling Treasuries for years. I’m not concerned at all.” Scott reminded reporters that the U.S. is still seeing “record foreign investment” in its Treasurys. He also pointed to Japan’s snap election. That news triggered a bond sell-off in Tokyo, and Scott said that “spilled over to other markets,” possibly explaining some of the panic selling outside the U.S. too. As for the theory that European governments might start dumping U.S. assets , Scott had a name: Deutsche Bank. “The notion that Europeans would be selling U.S. assets came from a single analyst at Deutsche Bank,” he said, adding that “the fake news media” made it sound bigger than it is. That analyst was George Saravelos, head of FX research at the bank. His January 18 note warned that the U.S. has one big weakness: “it relies on others to pay its bills via large external deficits.” He wrote that European governments had $8 trillion in U.S. bonds and stocks. His point was that if Europe’s faith in U.S. stability broke, they could start pulling money fast. Saravelos also mentioned that Danish funds were “one of the first” to cut back on dollar exposure last year. With the way things have gone over the last few days, he said the chances of more of that happening are “high.” But Scott had more ammo. He said Deutsche Bank’s CEO called him personally and said the firm didn’t stand by that research. Trump’s Greenland tariffs, security push spark global reaction This whole thing is about Greenland. Trump wants it. Europe doesn’t. And Denmark technically owns it.“We are asking our allies to understand that Greenland needs to be part of the United States,” Scott said. The Arctic is warming. Russia and China are circling. New trade routes are opening. Trump wants to stop them. But Greenlanders aren’t thrilled. Their business minister, Naaja Nathanielsen, told CNBC they are “bewildered” by Trump’s push. “We have always considered ourselves as an ally of the U.S. and have tried to accommodate the needs from the U.S. over the years and done so happily,” she said. She added that Trump’s actions feel like “acquiring us like a product or a property.” She didn’t stop there. She mentioned actual “threats of military action and an occupation of our country.” Leaders on the island say Greenland is open for business, but it’s not for sale. Scott brought up history. He said the U.S. had already bought the Virgin Islands from Denmark during the First World War because they “understood” their value. He also said this is about America’s position in the world. “President Trump has made it clear that we will not outsource our national security or our hemispheric security to any other countries,” he said. Then he called out the U.K. “Our partner, the U.K., is letting us down with the base on Diego Garcia,” he said. “They want to turn it over to Mauritius.” That, he said, is proof that America needs to act alone. He ended with this: “Take a deep breath. Do not have this reflexive anger we’ve seen. Why don’t they sit down and wait for President Trump to get here and listen to his argument, because I think they are going to be persuaded.” Join a premium crypto trading community free for 30 days - normally $100/mo.
21 Jan 2026, 12:00
China condemns U.S. trade deal draining Taiwan’s economy
China is pissed off over the new trade deal between Taiwan and the United States. Officials in Beijing say Donald Trump’s team is draining Taiwan’s economy while pretending it’s some big win for both sides. They’re not buying it. The deal , signed last week, cuts U.S. tariffs on Taiwanese exports down to 15%. In return, Taiwan is throwing in half a trillion dollars. That’s $250 billion in direct investment into U.S. tech and chip factories, and another $250 billion in credit support for its own companies expanding in America. Peng Qingen from China’s Taiwan Affairs Office didn’t hold back. On Wednesday, he said the deal would “only drain Taiwan’s economic interests,” and slammed Taiwan’s ruling Democratic Progressive Party, or DPP, for letting the U.S. “hollow out” the island’s most important industries. That was his exact quote . Peng also said the DPP was selling out local jobs just to help the U.S. boost its tech sector. Taiwan funds chip expansion as U.S. slashes tariffs The deal gives Taiwan a few perks. It gets higher quotas to ship chips to the U.S. without tariffs. It also gets full waivers on generic drugs, airplane parts, and raw materials that the U.S. doesn’t produce itself. In return, the DPP promised $250 billion in new projects inside the U.S., from chip fabrication to artificial intelligence labs. Another $250 billion in credit is being handed out by Taiwan’s government to help companies expand production abroad. Howard Lutnick, Trump’s Commerce Secretary, told CNBC on Thursday the U.S. wants 40% of Taiwan’s chip supply chain to be built out in America. He didn’t say how fast or which parts, but that was the target. It’s a massive goal. TSMC, the world’s largest contract chipmaker, is already building in Arizona. They’ve pledged $165 billion to build fabs and an R&D center. That’s just the start. Reports say they might add another four to six plants, which would take the total above ten. Taiwan’s vice premier, Cheng Li-chiun, responded to Lutnick’s comment by saying the U.S. chip plan isn’t just about Taiwan. “Other countries and American firms are part of this too,” she said. She made it clear Taiwan isn’t giving away its top tech. The most advanced nodes will stay in Taiwan. China warns of economic sabotage and blasts DPP Beijing says this whole thing is a trap. They accuse the U.S. of trying to use Taiwan as a tool to hold back China. Peng said labor costs for TSMC’s U.S. factories are more than double what they are at home. He said pushing Taiwanese companies to build expensive plants in America just to create “so-called high-paying jobs for Americans” is a strategy that will destroy Taiwan’s own tech foundation. Last week, Beijing said it “firmly opposed” any agreement between Taiwan and countries that have diplomatic ties with China. They also told Washington to stick to the one-China principle. Xi Jinping still says unification with Taiwan is “a historical inevitability.” Taiwan isn’t having it. The government there has always rejected China’s claim. Right now, Taiwan still dominates global chip manufacturing. TSMC alone makes most of the world’s advanced chips. Almost one-third of the world’s new computing power is estimated to come from Taiwan. That’s why Trump’s team is going all-in. They want to lock Taiwan deeper into the U.S. economy while China steps up political and military pressure on the island. Sharpen your strategy with mentorship + daily ideas - 30 days free access to our trading program
21 Jan 2026, 11:52
Bitcoin Advocate Urges Federal Reserve to Add BTC to Stress Tests
Pierre Rochard, CEO of The Bitcoin Bond Company, has formally requested that the Federal Reserve include Bitcoin as an explicit variable in its 2026 supervisory stress tests, arguing the asset’s extreme volatility and growing institutional adoption warrant standalone treatment in banking risk assessments. The letter , submitted January 20 to the Federal Reserve Board, challenges the practice of grouping Bitcoin with other cryptocurrencies and proposes quantitative calibration based on the asset’s historical behavior dating back to 2015. Rochard’s submission arrives as the US government navigates conflicting policies on Bitcoin holdings, amid recent confusion over whether forfeited assets from the Samourai Wallet case violated Executive Order 14233, which requires seized Bitcoin to be transferred to the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve rather than liquidated. However, the Department of Justice later confirmed , through White House crypto advisor Patrick Witt, that the 57.5 BTC had “ not been liquidated and will not be liquidated, ” resolving speculation after blockchain analysts flagged a November transfer to a Coinbase Prime address. It is in the United States national interest to become the Bitcoin Superpower. To that end, the Federal Reserve should begin integrating bitcoin into its stress tests and scenarios. I've sent in a comment letter explaining what I believe to be reasonable path forward. ( 1/3) pic.twitter.com/rDILZMpFv5 — Pierre Rochard (@BitcoinPierre) January 20, 2026 Extreme Volatility Demands Separate Treatment Rochard’s letter presents a detailed analysis showing Bitcoin’s 73.3% annualized realized volatility over the 2015-2026 sample period, compared to just 18.1% for the S&P 500 over the same timeframe. The analysis documents a maximum drawdown of 83.8% from peak to trough, with daily return tails ranging from -10.0% at the 1st percentile to 10.7% at the 99th percentile, far exceeding typical asset behavior. Source: X/@BitcoinPierre “ Bitcoin’s risk profile is unusually idiosyncratic and materially non-linear: it has experienced repeated, deep peak-to-trough drawdowns and sustained periods of very high realized volatility ,” Rochard wrote. He argued these properties affect valuations, margin requirements, counterparty exposures, and liquidity demands “ in ways that cannot be reliably inferred from other scenario variables. “ The submission includes rolling correlation analysis demonstrating Bitcoin’s unstable dependence structure with macro-financial variables, with correlation between Bitcoin and S&P 500 returns ranging from negative to strongly positive across 90-observation windows. Source: X/@BitcoinPierre Rochard warned that “ a fixed ‘beta’ mapping from equities (or risk sentiment) to bitcoin will understate risk in some regimes and overstate it in others, ” making explicit scenario variables essential for consistent stress testing across banks. Implementation Would Reduce Model Divergence Rochard recommends that the Federal Reserve provide quarterly Bitcoin price paths for baseline, adverse, and severely adverse scenarios, with optional daily paths for global-market-shock datasets. He suggests three calibration methods: Historical feature matching tied to peak-to-trough drawdowns and realized-volatility percentiles Regime-switching time-series models with different volatilities for bull and bear markets Jump-diffusion frameworks with stochastic volatility explicitly representing tail risk “ The calibration goal is not to forecast bitcoin, but to supply a consistent and severe, but plausible, path that stress tests can translate into market and counterparty outcomes, ” Rochard explained. He emphasized that firms without Bitcoin exposure could simply ignore the variable, while those with direct or indirect exposure would gain “ transparency, reproducibility, and consistent scenario translation ” rather than relying on inconsistent proxy assumptions. The timing coincides with broader market stress, as Bitcoin plunged to $88,000 amid $1.07 billion in liquidations over 24 hours while gold surged past $4,800 per ounce . The divergence has renewed debate over Bitcoin’s role as either a risk asset or a strategic reserve, particularly after President Trump’s threats to impose tariffs on Greenland triggered a flight from US assets. CEO of Galaxy, Mike Novogratz, noted “ the gold price is telling us we are losing reserve currency status at an accelerating rate, ” adding that Bitcoin “ is disappointing as it is still being met with selling .” The gold price is telling us we are losing reserve currency status at an accelerating rate. The long bond selling off is not a good sign either. $BTC is disappointing as it is still being met with selling. I will reiterate it has to take out 100-103k to regain its upward… — Mike Novogratz (@novogratz) January 20, 2026 The Federal Reserve’s comment period for the 2026 stress test scenarios closes February 21. Senator Cynthia Lummis, who previously criticized potential government Bitcoin sales as squandering “ strategic assets while other nations are accumulating bitcoin, ” has proposed legislation to acquire up to 1 million Bitcoin over five years through budget-neutral methods, including tariff revenue and revalued gold reserves. The post Bitcoin Advocate Urges Federal Reserve to Add BTC to Stress Tests appeared first on Cryptonews .
