hodler

11 Mar 2026, 17:01

Strive allocates $50M of treasury to Strategy’s STRC preferred stock

The investment makes Strive the latest corporate to add the yield-generating security to its balance sheet as companies explore Bitcoin-linked treasury instruments.

11 Mar 2026, 17:00

Arthur Hayes Says He Wouldn’t Buy Bitcoin Yet: Wait For This

Arthur Hayes is still structurally bullish on Bitcoin. He just does not think now is the moment to buy. Speaking on the Coin Stories podcast on March 10, the BitMEX co-founder and Maelstrom CIO said he would stay patient until a more familiar macro catalyst arrives: central bank liquidity. In Hayes’ telling, a prolonged Iran war and the credit stress that could follow from AI-driven economic disruption may ultimately force the Federal Reserve back into money printing, and that, rather than the conflict itself, is the signal he is waiting for. “If I had $1 to invest right now, would I be putting it into Bitcoin? No. I would wait,” Hayes said near the end of the interview. “I think that the longer that this conflict goes on, the higher the likelihood that the Fed has to print money to support the American war machine and that’s when I’m going to buy Bitcoin when the central banks start printing money.” That distinction mattered throughout the conversation. Hayes pushed back on the idea that war is automatically bullish for Bitcoin, arguing that the real transmission mechanism is liquidity expansion. “If you’re saying, ‘Okay, war is good for Bitcoin,’ what you’re really saying is war means money printing. Money printing is good for Bitcoin,” he said. “So wait for the money printing. Don’t try to time it because you could get it wrong.” Related Reading: Bitcoin Short Bets Surge—Will Bears Get Squeezed? Arthur Hayes Sees More Bitcoin Pain Ahead The argument fits a broader framework Hayes laid out across the interview: Bitcoin is less a clean debasement trade than a “liquidity alarm,” one that is already reacting to tightening conditions, credit stress and a lack of fresh dollar creation. He tied that view to the rise of AI, which he said could accelerate white-collar job losses, pressure private credit and banking exposures, and force markets to price in a much sharper economic break than many currently expect. “I think it’s going to happen faster than people think just because of the exponential nature of how fast AI is improving,” Hayes said. “It only takes 10 to 20% [job displacement]. And then the leverage in the banking system will do the rest. At some point the market goes, ‘Oh, this is worth zero.’” In that scenario, he said, the market’s recognition of the problem could come well before the full economic damage is visible in the data. Regional banks, private credit and broader financial equities could reprice violently, with deposit flight and emergency Fed support following close behind. That is the moment Hayes sees as far more constructive for Bitcoin than the current backdrop. Related Reading: Bitcoin Stabilizes, But Glassnode Warns Spot Demand Is Still Weak Still, his near-term caution did not extend to Bitcoin’s long-run role. Hayes described himself as “structurally very very long” crypto and argued that the case for non-state money is stronger now than it was at Bitcoin’s launch. He also warned against shaping the industry around institutional preferences, saying crypto should not reduce itself to a more complicated version of traditional finance. “Bitcoin got from zero to whatever $66,000 whatever the price is today with no government support, unclear regulations, hostile banking infrastructure and regulators,” Hayes said. “So why are we bending over backwards to try to gain acceptance from these folks who don’t have our best interest at heart?” He was equally dismissive of conspiracy-driven explanations for weak market performance, including claims that market makers are deliberately suppressing Bitcoin’s price. More often, he said, losses come down to poor positioning, bad timing or leverage used by traders who are not equipped for crypto’s pace. For investors frustrated that Bitcoin has not delivered instant life-changing returns, Hayes’ answer was blunt: adjust expectations. “The market’s job is not to make you money. The market’s job is to take your money,” he said, arguing that long-term compounding still matters far more than trying to force a six-month windfall. At press time, BTC traded at $69,538. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

11 Mar 2026, 16:37

Middle East Conflict Shakes Prediction Markets as Rubio and Newsom Gain in 2028 Election Odds

Prediction markets tracking U.S. politics are heating up as traders wager millions on the 2026 midterms and the 2028 presidential race, with activity on Polymarket and Kalshi revealing how bettors think Washington’s next political chapter might unfold. Traders Rotate Bets as Democrats Lead Midterm Odds and Rubio, Newsom Rise in 2028 Race The “Balance of

11 Mar 2026, 16:30

GBP/USD Defies Gravity: Steady at 1.34 Amidst Oil Shock and Scorching US Inflation

BitcoinWorld GBP/USD Defies Gravity: Steady at 1.34 Amidst Oil Shock and Scorching US Inflation LONDON, March 2025 – The GBP/USD currency pair demonstrates remarkable resilience, holding firm near the 1.34 level despite facing a dual assault from volatile oil markets and persistently high US inflation data. This unexpected stability in the forex market captures the attention of traders and analysts globally, prompting a deeper examination of the underlying forces at play. The British pound’s ability to weather these significant economic headwinds against the US dollar signals a complex interplay of monetary policy expectations, commodity dynamics, and shifting investor sentiment. GBP/USD Stability Amidst Macroeconomic Turbulence Foreign exchange markets typically react sharply to inflationary pressures and commodity price shocks. Consequently, the steady performance of the GBP/USD pair presents a notable anomaly. Recent weeks witnessed a significant spike in global oil prices, triggered by renewed geopolitical tensions in key production regions. Simultaneously, the latest US Consumer Price Index (CPI) report confirmed inflation remains stubbornly above the Federal Reserve’s target. Historically, such conditions would bolster the US dollar as a safe-haven asset and pressure risk-sensitive currencies like the pound. However, current price action tells a different story, suggesting other fundamental factors are providing substantial support for sterling. Market analysts point to several key reasons for this divergence. Firstly, the Bank of England has maintained a notably hawkish rhetoric, signaling its commitment to tackling domestic inflation even as growth concerns linger. Secondly, relative economic performance plays a crucial role. While US inflation is hot, recent UK GDP data has surprised to the upside, reducing the perceived growth differential. Thirdly, positioning data reveals that speculative markets were heavily short the pound entering this period, limiting further downside momentum. This combination creates a floor for the currency pair. Decoding the Oil Shock’s Asymmetric Impact The recent oil price shock creates complex crosscurrents for both the UK and US economies. For the United States, a net energy exporter, higher prices can translate to trade benefits but also exacerbate domestic inflationary pressures, complicating the Fed’s policy path. Conversely, the United Kingdom remains a net energy importer, making it more vulnerable to imported inflation and potential trade balance deterioration. Despite this inherent vulnerability, the pound has not capitulated. Experts cite two primary mitigating factors. Structurally, the UK’s transition to renewable energy sources has gradually reduced its economic sensitivity to fossil fuel price swings over the past decade. Tactically, markets may be viewing the oil spike as potentially transient, linked to specific geopolitical events rather than a sustained structural deficit. Furthermore, the shock has global ramifications, affecting all major currencies and thus muting its relative impact on specific pairs like GBP/USD. The market’s focus appears to have shifted more intently towards central bank policy responses as the primary driver. Central Bank Policy Divergence as the Key Driver The core narrative supporting GBP/USD revolves around anticipated central bank actions. The Federal Reserve faces a delicate balancing act. It must combat inflation without triggering a significant economic slowdown. Recent communications suggest a cautious, data-dependent approach, with potential rate cuts being pushed further into the future. Across the Atlantic, the Bank of England confronts its own persistent inflation problem, particularly in services and wage growth. Its latest meeting minutes revealed a committee increasingly concerned about embedded inflation, leaving the door open for maintaining restrictive policy for longer. This creates a scenario where the interest rate differential—a fundamental driver of currency values—may not narrow as quickly as previously forecast. Forward rate agreements (FRAs) in money markets now price in a slower easing cycle from the BOE compared to the Fed for the latter half of 2025. This recalibration of expectations provides direct support for sterling. The table below summarizes the key policy stances influencing the pair: Factor Impact on USD Impact on GBP Net Effect on GBP/USD High US Inflation Mixed (Hawkish Fed vs. Growth Risk) Neutral/Indirect Muted Oil Price Shock Moderate Negative (Inflationary) Moderate Negative (Import Cost) Neutral Central Bank Stance Cautiously Hawkish Firmly Hawkish Supportive Economic Growth Solid but Moderating Resilient Supportive Technical and Sentiment Analysis of the Currency Pair From a chart perspective, the 1.34 level has emerged as a critical technical battleground. This zone represents: A key psychological round number for traders. The 200-day moving average , a widely watched long-term trend indicator. A previous resistance area from Q4 2024 that has now turned into support. Repeated defense of this level signals strong buying interest and suggests a foundation is being built for a potential upward move if macro conditions align. Market sentiment, as measured by the CFTC’s Commitments of Traders report, shows a reduction in extreme net short positions on the pound, removing a source of downward pressure. Volatility, measured by indicators like the GBP/USD one-month implied volatility, has actually declined slightly during this period of macro stress, indicating options markets are not pricing in a major breakout. Broader Market Implications and Future Risks The stability of GBP/USD has ripple effects across other asset classes. It provides a semblance of calm for UK-focused equity investors concerned about currency-driven earnings volatility. For global macro funds, the pair’s behavior challenges conventional correlation models that link the dollar solely to risk-off sentiment and commodity prices. Looking ahead, several risks could disrupt the current equilibrium. A significant escalation in the Middle East, driving oil prices sustainably higher, could eventually overwhelm sterling’s resilience. Alternatively, a sudden dovish pivot from the Bank of England, prompted by weak upcoming employment or retail sales data, would undermine its key supportive pillar. Furthermore, the US economic trajectory remains paramount. Should upcoming data show inflation accelerating once more, it could force the Fed to adopt a more aggressively hawkish stance than currently anticipated, reigniting dollar strength. Conversely, signs of a rapid US economic cooling could see the dollar weaken across the board, potentially propelling GBP/USD through key resistance levels above 1.35. Traders will closely monitor upcoming data releases from both economies, particularly inflation prints, employment figures, and purchasing managers’ indices (PMIs), for the next directional catalyst. Conclusion The GBP/USD pair’s steadfast position near 1.34 amidst significant oil and inflation shocks underscores the complex, multi-factor nature of modern forex markets. While traditional drivers exert pressure, the dominant narrative has shifted towards central bank policy divergence, with the Bank of England’s firm stance providing crucial support for sterling. Technical factors and improved market sentiment further bolster the pair. This scenario highlights that currency valuation in 2025 requires a nuanced analysis that weighs relative policy paths, structural economic shifts, and real-time risk sentiment. The resilience of GBP/USD serves as a powerful reminder that in interconnected global markets, stability often emerges from the balance of opposing forces. FAQs Q1: Why is GBP/USD not falling despite high US inflation? High US inflation typically supports the USD, but GBP/USD is holding firm due to equally hawkish signals from the Bank of England and resilient UK economic data, which keep the interest rate differential supportive for the pound. Q2: How does an oil price shock affect the British pound? As a net energy importer, the UK faces higher import costs from an oil shock, which can hurt its trade balance and fuel inflation. However, the market impact is muted if the shock is seen as temporary or if other factors, like central bank policy, are deemed more important. Q3: What is the key technical level for GBP/USD mentioned in the analysis? The 1.34 level is critically important. It acts as a major psychological level, coincides with the 200-day moving average, and has served as both previous resistance and current support. Q4: Could this stability in GBP/USD be a sign of a new trend? While stability can precede a new trend, it is not a confirmation. A sustained move above 1.35 would signal a bullish breakout, while a break below 1.33 could indicate a bearish reversal. The next directional move likely depends on upcoming inflation and growth data from both the US and UK. Q5: What are the biggest risks to the current GBP/USD stability? The primary risks are a significant further surge in oil prices, a dovish shift in Bank of England policy due to weak UK data, or an unexpectedly aggressive hawkish turn from the Federal Reserve if US inflation re-accelerates. This post GBP/USD Defies Gravity: Steady at 1.34 Amidst Oil Shock and Scorching US Inflation first appeared on BitcoinWorld .

11 Mar 2026, 16:28

Ethereum flat near $2K as February U.S. CPI comes in neutral

More on Ethereum USD Whale's Insight: From Conflict Shock To Liquidity Return - Is Crypto Forming A Base? Ethereum Price Tests Support Near $1,940 As Risk Sentiment Turns Defensive Whale's Insight: Surface Weakness Masks Whale Accumulation In ETH Bitcoin starts week volatile above $67,000 as Iran conflict, oil surge rattle markets BlockFills preparing for restructuring amid crypto downturn - report

11 Mar 2026, 16:22

Shiba Inu Price Holds Steady as Shytoshi Kusama's X Silence and Bio Update Fuel Speculation

The Shiba Inu price remains steady as the community monitors activity from Shytoshi Kusama. Traders continue tracking SHIB price movement alongside signals from the ecosystem’s leadership. Kusama’s silence on X has drawn attention across the Shiba Inu community. Meanwhile, broader crypto market developments and macroeconomic data continue shaping market sentiment. Kusama’s X bio change sparks speculation about development work The Shiba Inu community continues to watch Shytoshi Kusama’s activity on X closely. His last interaction on the platform occurred on Feb. 21. During that moment, Kusama responded to a post from Shiba Inu team member Lucie. Since then, he has not posted further updates. However, Kusama updated his X bio location to “UI bug fixes.” Community members often interpret such bio changes as subtle hints about ongoing work. Kusama has previously used his bio to communicate development progress without direct announcements. Because of this pattern, the latest change quickly sparked speculation among community members. Some observers suggested the message might point to ongoing updates or technical improvements. However, Kusama has not confirmed the exact meaning behind the update. At the end of January, Kusama revealed he had been working on an independent artificial intelligence project. He said the project had entered alpha testing and polishing stages. It remains uncertain whether the “UI bug fixes” message connects to that AI project. For now, the Shiba Inu community continues watching for Kusama’s return to active posting on X. Many expect further updates about ongoing development efforts in the ecosystem. Shiba Inu price rebounds slightly as crypto market liquidations increase At the time of writing, the Shiba Inu price has dropped 2.45% in the past 24 hours. SHIB currently trades at $0.00000582. The recent movement follows a broader decline across the cryptocurrency market. According to CoinGlass data , more than $233 million in crypto futures bets were liquidated during the last 24 hours. Long positions accounted for the majority of those liquidations. Despite the volatility, SHIB recorded two consecutive days of price increases earlier this week. The Shiba Inu price surged to $0.00000608 on March 10 before meeting resistance. After failing to hold that level, the token moved lower. On Wednesday, SHIB opened trading at $0.00000567. The price later showed a slight rebound as trading continued. At the same time, overall crypto sentiment has shown gradual improvement. The Fear and Greed Index currently stands at 24 out of 100. That level signals “fear,” although sentiment recently moved out of the “extreme fear” zone after more than a month. Investors are also watching upcoming economic data. The consumer price index report for February will be released on Wednesday morning. Analysts expect the Federal Reserve to hold interest rates steady at next week’s policy meeting. However, the CPI report may influence expectations for future monetary decisions.