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17 Feb 2026, 22:55
Bitwise ETF Application Sparks Revolutionary Shift with PredictionShares Fund
BitcoinWorld Bitwise ETF Application Sparks Revolutionary Shift with PredictionShares Fund In a landmark move for the financial sector, asset manager Bitwise has officially filed for a first-of-its-kind prediction market-based Exchange-Traded Fund (ETF), a development confirmed by Bloomberg Intelligence’s renowned ETF analyst James Seyffart on March 21, 2025. This pioneering application for a fund branded ‘PredictionShares’ represents a bold attempt to bridge the traditionally speculative world of event forecasting with the regulated, mainstream accessibility of the public securities markets. Consequently, this filing could fundamentally alter how both retail and institutional investors gain exposure to the predictive insights generated by global markets. Bitwise ETF Filing Targets Uncharted Prediction Market Territory Bitwise Asset Management, a firm with established expertise in cryptocurrency index funds, has submitted its application to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). The proposed ETF aims to track an index composed of companies operating within or enabling prediction markets. According to the filing details, these markets allow participants to trade contracts based on the outcome of future events, ranging from election results and economic indicators to technological milestones and entertainment awards. Therefore, the ‘PredictionShares’ ETF would not directly hold prediction contracts but would invest in the public equities of firms that provide the underlying infrastructure, technology, and platforms for these markets. This strategic move by Bitwise follows a broader trend of financial innovation, particularly from firms with roots in digital assets seeking new, compliant avenues for growth. The application arrives amidst a complex regulatory landscape where the SEC has recently approved several spot Bitcoin ETFs while maintaining a cautious stance on other crypto-related products. Importantly, a prediction market ETF differs significantly from a cryptocurrency ETF. Instead of holding digital tokens, it focuses on the equity of companies in a nascent but growing fintech subsector. Analysts suggest this structure may face a different, though still rigorous, regulatory scrutiny process. Expert Analysis and Market Context James Seyffart, the Bloomberg ETF analyst who first reported the filing, is a widely cited authority on fund launches and regulatory processes. His identification of this application adds immediate credibility and draws significant attention from the investment community. Seyffart’s reporting typically involves meticulous tracking of SEC filings and direct communication with regulatory bodies. The news quickly circulated among financial media, prompting discussions about the viability and potential impact of such a product. Prediction markets themselves are not new; platforms like PredictIt and Polymarket have operated for years, often facing regulatory challenges. However, packaging exposure to this industry into a daily-traded, transparent ETF is a novel concept. It provides several potential advantages: Accessibility: Investors can gain diversified exposure through a standard brokerage account without engaging directly with often-unregulated prediction platforms. Liquidity: ETF shares trade on major exchanges like the NYSE or Nasdaq, offering high liquidity compared to individual prediction market contracts. Transparency: The ETF structure requires daily disclosure of holdings, providing clarity not always present in the underlying markets. The following table outlines key distinctions between this proposed ETF and other recent financial innovations: Product Type Underlying Asset Primary Regulatory Hurdle Investor Access Model Bitwise PredictionShares ETF Equities of prediction market firms Securities laws, market manipulation concerns Public stock exchange Spot Bitcoin ETF (e.g., Bitwise BITB) Physical Bitcoin Custody, market surveillance Public stock exchange Direct Prediction Market (e.g., Polymarket) Event-based contracts Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) rules Direct platform registration Potential Impacts and Industry Ramifications of a Prediction Market ETF The successful launch of a prediction market-based ETF could have profound ripple effects across multiple industries. Firstly, it would likely confer a new level of legitimacy and institutional interest on the prediction market sector. Publicly traded companies within the ETF’s index might experience increased analyst coverage and capital inflows. Furthermore, it could accelerate research into the informational efficiency of prediction markets as aggregators of collective intelligence, often cited as more accurate than polls or individual experts for certain event types. For the asset management industry, a successful PredictionShares fund would demonstrate continued demand for highly specialized, thematic ETFs that tap into unique data streams and alternative beta. It could pave the way for other funds based on non-traditional data sources, such as sentiment analysis or geospatial intelligence. However, significant challenges remain. The SEC’s Division of Corporation Finance and Division of Trading and Markets will meticulously review the application, focusing on: Index Methodology: How the index selects and weights constituent companies must be rules-based, transparent, and replicable. Liquidity of Underlying Holdings: The public equities held must be sufficiently liquid to support ETF creation and redemption. Market Integrity: The regulator will assess potential risks, including whether the ETF’s performance could be influenced by manipulation in the underlying prediction markets. Bitwise’s own experience navigating the SEC’s lengthy review process for its Bitcoin ETF products may prove invaluable. The firm has developed a reputation for engaging proactively with regulators, emphasizing robust market surveillance partnerships and transparent custody solutions. Applying this same rigorous framework to a prediction market ETF could be a key factor in its potential approval. The Road to Approval and Future Outlook The standard review period for a new ETF is up to 240 days, though this can be extended. The process involves multiple rounds of comments and questions from SEC staff. Given the novel nature of the asset class, analysts like Seyffart anticipate a thorough and potentially prolonged review. The outcome will hinge not just on Bitwise’s application but also on the broader regulatory stance toward prediction markets, which has historically been cautious due to concerns over their proximity to gambling. Approval would signal a major policy evolution. It could encourage more traditional financial data providers to integrate prediction market data into their offerings. Conversely, a rejection would highlight the enduring regulatory boundaries for certain types of alternative data investment vehicles. Regardless of the outcome, Bitwise’s application has already succeeded in sparking a serious conversation about the future of forecasting, investment, and the democratization of specialized market insights. Conclusion Bitwise’s application for a prediction market-based ETF, branded PredictionShares, marks a significant moment in financial innovation. By seeking to offer regulated, exchange-traded exposure to the companies powering event forecasting markets, Bitwise is testing the boundaries of the traditional ETF wrapper. The filing, confirmed by expert analyst James Seyffart, introduces both substantial opportunities for investor access and complex regulatory questions. The SEC’s forthcoming review will be closely watched, as its decision will not only determine the fate of PredictionShares but also set a precedent for how predictive analytics and collective intelligence are harnessed within the mainstream financial system. The journey of this Bitwise ETF application will undoubtedly provide critical insights into the evolving intersection of finance, technology, and information markets. FAQs Q1: What exactly is a prediction market-based ETF? A prediction market-based ETF is an exchange-traded fund that invests in a basket of publicly traded companies involved in the operation, technology, or infrastructure of prediction markets. It does not directly hold prediction contracts but offers equity exposure to the sector. Q2: Who reported on the Bitwise ETF application first? Bloomberg Intelligence’s senior ETF analyst, James Seyffart, was the first to report and confirm the filing with regulatory authorities, lending significant credibility to the news. Q3: How is this different from a Bitcoin ETF? A Bitcoin ETF holds the digital currency Bitcoin as its primary asset. The proposed Bitwise PredictionShares ETF holds shares of companies, making it an equity fund focused on a specific thematic sector, not a direct digital asset fund. Q4: What are the main regulatory hurdles for this ETF? The SEC will focus on the liquidity of the underlying stocks, the transparency and robustness of the index methodology, and overarching concerns about market integrity and the potential for manipulation in the prediction markets that the constituent companies serve. Q5: When could the Bitwise PredictionShares ETF launch? The SEC has a standard review period of up to 240 days from the filing date, which can be extended. An approval and subsequent launch, therefore, would likely not occur until late 2025 or 2026, depending on the complexity of the regulatory dialogue. This post Bitwise ETF Application Sparks Revolutionary Shift with PredictionShares Fund first appeared on BitcoinWorld .
17 Feb 2026, 22:47
Trump-led American Bitcoin crosses 6,000 BTC mark as treasury firms ramp activity
Eric Trump announced today that American Bitcoin Corp, the Trump family-backed mining and treasury firm, now formally holds 6,000 Bitcoin in its reserves, becoming one of the world’s largest corporate Bitcoin holders in less than 6 months of public trading . The firm’s co-founder and chief strategy officer (CSO) Eric Trump ma de the announcement on February 17, 2026, on his X account, stating that American Bitcoin had reached “an incredible milestone” by surpassing 6,000 BTC “in under 6 months since our Nasdaq debut.” According to blockchain data from Arkham Intelligence, American Bitcoin now holds 6,072 BTC , go od enough to be among the top-20 publicly traded Bitcoin treasury holders globally. Source: Arkham Intelligence Mining-to-treasury model delivers rapid accumulation in under 6 months American Bitcoin’s growth trajectory has been moving with some record velocity, growing by approximately 217 BTC in January alone. This accumulation strategy was a mix of mining output and direct market purchases, which the firm called a “mining to treasury” pipeline designed to outperform traditional mining operations that sell their production to cover costs. According to industry analysts, American Bitcoin’s partnership with Hut 8 Corp (who owns an 80% stake in the venture) currently delivers between 8 and 10 BTC daily through a mining facility that’s the size of five football fields. Eric Trump, who also serves as the Chief Strategy Officer and co-founder of ABTC, visited the facility recently and emphasized the company’s mission to build a “strategic bitcoin reserve” by retaining mined Bitcoin rather than liquidating it to cover operational costs. ABTC also reported a Bitcoin yield of approximately 116% from its September 2025 Nasdaq debut till late January 2026. Bitcoin yield measures growth in holdings from mined or purchased coins (calculated separately from capital raising activity), meaning that the growth of ABTC’s holdings reflects actual Bitcoin accumulation as opposed to dilutive equity financing. Hyperscale Data crosses 600 BTC American Bitcoin’s milestone achievement is part of a broader wave of corporate treasury Bitcoin accumulation. Hyperscale Data, based in Las Vegas, announced today as well that its Bitcoin treasury had reached 600.5299 Bitcoin (valued at approximately $41.3 million). Speaking on this achievement, Hyperscale Data’s Executive Chairman, Milton “Todd” Ault III, stated that “Surpassing 600 Bitcoin is a significant milestone that underscores our commitment to our Bitcoin treasury strategy.” The AI data center company’s assets are split between subsidiaries Sentinum (554.4002 BTC) and Ault Capital Group (46.1711 BTC), with the latter acquiring 4.6024 BTC in the open market just last week. However, there is something unusual about Hyperscale Data’s position. Apparently, the company’s combined cash, restricted cash, and Bitcoin holdings (worth approximately $87.6 million combined) represented 135.82% of the company’s market cap based on its February 13th closing stock price. This suggests that the firm’s liquid assets alone are more than the entire equity valuation, a disconnect that the management attributed to the market failing to reflect balance sheet strength in the share price. The company targets deploying at least 5% of allocated cash each week into Bitcoin purchases through a dollar-cost-averaging strategy. Hyperscale Data has stated its goal is to reach $100 million in Bitcoin on its balance sheet, meaning current holdings represent roughly 41% of that target, with significant accumulation still planned. DDC surpasses 2,000 BTC with 74.8% growth since January Global Asian food platform DDC Enterprise also announced today that it had acquired an additional 80 Bitcoin, bringing its corporate treasury up to 2,068 BTC. This latest purchase marked DDC’s sixth consecutive week of Bitcoin accumulation and represented a 74.8% increase in holdings since the year started. “This milestone is not about a single trade – it reflects disciplined execution and long-term treasury strategy,” stated Norma Chu, the founder, chairwoman and CEO of DDC. The company revealed that its average acquisition cost for the Bitcoin reserve now stands at $84,944 per coin, providing context for its cost basis since the market trades around $70,000. According to analysts, DDC opted for gradual accumulation instead of costly one-off acquisitions, thus allowing it to broaden exposure while managing its risk and liquidity. This approach contrasts with other treasury firms that reported large unrealized losses due to the volatility of the market. For example, mining firm Hive Digital Technologies posted an impressive 219% year-on-year revenue growth but recorded a $91.3 million net loss due to revaluation and adjustments. The increase in corporate Bitcoin treasury activity in early 2026 highlights a maturing market dynamic where public companies are starting to view Bitcoin more as a strategic reserve asset than a speculative one. While stock prices for a lot of treasury firms remain volatile, the speed of accumulation continues to increase, with American Bitcoin’s 6,000 BTC milestone, Hyperscale’s 600 BTC, and DDC’s 2,000 BTC milestones all happening within days of each other this month as Bitcoin tries to stabilize above $70,000. Claim your free seat in an exclusive crypto trading community - limited to 1,000 members.
17 Feb 2026, 22:30
Nakamoto Inc. to Acquire BTC Inc. and UTXO in $107M All-Stock Deal
Nakamoto Inc. says it will acquire BTC Inc. and UTXO Management in a $107.3 million all-stock transaction aimed at building an integrated Bitcoin-focused operating company. Bitcoin Treasury Firm Nakamoto Strikes $107M Deal Nakamoto Inc. (Nasdaq: NAKA) announced Feb. 17, 2026, that it has entered into definitive merger agreements to acquire BTC Inc., a bitcoin media
17 Feb 2026, 22:00
Why Kraken Is Backing Wyoming ‘Trump Accounts’, A Crypto Policy Gamble?
Crypto exchange Kraken has pledged to sponsor so-called “Trump Accounts” for every child born in Wyoming in 2026, tying its name to a federal savings program closely associated with U.S. President Donald Trump. Related Reading: Kraken Backs Trump Accounts, Points To Shared Crypto Vision The advancement positions the exchange at the center of a politically branded financial initiative while also reinforcing its long-standing alignment with Wyoming’s crypto-friendly regulatory framework. The decision arrives at a moment when crypto firms are recalibrating their relationships with policymakers after years of regulatory pressure. For Kraken, which is headquartered in Wyoming, the move blends community investment with a clear policy signal to a state that has positioned itself as a testing ground for regulation. How The Trump Accounts Work Trump Accounts are tax-advantaged savings accounts that parents or legal guardians can open for children under 18. Under a federal pilot program, every U.S. citizen newborn born between Jan. 1, 2025, and Dec. 31, 2028, is eligible for a one-time $1,000 contribution from the U.S. Treasury. The funds are invested in approved market index funds and grow on a tax-deferred basis until the child reaches adulthood. Kraken said it will make an additional contribution to each eligible account opened for Wyoming newborns in 2026, though it has not disclosed the amount or clarified whether its funding will be held in cash or digital assets. The exchange framed the decision as support for families in the state where it operates and is regulated as a Special Purpose Depository Institution. Wyoming’s Role in the Decision Wyoming has spent years building a legal framework tailored to digital assets, offering custody rules and banking charters that few other states had adopted earlier. Senator Cynthia Lummis, a long-time supporter of crypto policy, welcomed Kraken’s pledge, saying it would give children in the state an early financial foundation. Kraken executives have repeatedly pointed to Wyoming’s regulatory clarity as a reason for deeper, long-term investment. That clarity helped the exchange operate under state oversight even as federal regulators pursued enforcement actions against parts of the industry. A Policy Bet With Broader Implications By backing a program branded with a sitting president’s name, Kraken is taking on political risk alongside potential goodwill. Some analysts view the move less as philanthropy and more as a strategic effort to cement its standing in Wyoming and signal alignment with current federal policy direction. The exchange now joins traditional financial institutions such as JPMorgan Chase that have voiced support for the initiative, underscoring how a once-niche crypto firm is increasingly operating within mainstream policy debates. Related Reading: Zashi Becomes Zodl: Zcash Wallet Rebrands Following Internal Split Whether this approach pays off may depend on how durable Wyoming’s crypto experiment, and the Trump Accounts program itself, proves to be. Cover image from ChatGPT, ETHUSD chart from Tradingview
17 Feb 2026, 21:30
Tokenized US Treasuries Sector Nears $11B as Inflows Continue in 2026
Even as the broader crypto market nurses its bruises in a stubborn bear cycle, the real-world asset ( RWA) corner keeps stacking wins, with tokenized U.S. Treasury products pulling in $1.9 billion in inflows since the start of 2026. Digital Treasury Products Added $1.9 Billion Year-to-Date This week, rwa.xyz data shows the tokenized U.S. Treasuries
17 Feb 2026, 21:25
Iran has partially closed the Strait of Hormuz
Iran has partially closed the Strait of Hormuz, and state media said the action was taken under “security precautions” while the Revolutionary Guard carried out military drills inside the waterway. The Strait sits between Oman and Iran, and it is the most critical oil route on Earth. This is the first time Iran has shut parts of the Strait of Hormuz since U.S. President Donald Trump threatened Tehran with military action in January. The waterway links crude producers in the Middle East to buyers across Asia, Europe, and the United States. In 2025, about 13 million barrels per day passed through it, which is roughly 31% of global seaborne crude flows, based on data from Kpler. Even a partial restriction of Hormuz raises risk premiums. Shipping insurance costs will surge, and global oil markets will spike too, making life hard for average people all around the world. Iran conducts drills as nuclear talks continue At the same time, the United States and Iran held talks in Geneva over Tehran’s nuclear program. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi spoke after the meeting. Abbas said both sides reached an understanding of the “guiding principles.” He also said progress does not mean a final agreement is close and that more work is still needed. The International Energy Agency released its monthly oil report on Monday. The agency said world oil demand will grow more slowly than expected this year. It also warned that the global market still faces a sizeable surplus despite supply outages in January. The IEA projected that global supply will exceed demand by 3.73 million barrels per day in 2026. That equals almost 4% of world demand. It is larger than other forecasts. The IEA said, “Escalating geopolitical tensions, snowstorms and extreme temperatures in North America, and Kazakh supply disruptions sparked the reversal to a bullish market.” At the same time, the agency stated that “economic uncertainties and higher oil prices” are weighing on consumption. World oil demand is now expected to rise by 850,000 barrels per day this year. That figure is 80,000 barrels per day lower than last month’s estimate. It is also below the projection from OPEC. Supply has grown faster than demand. OPEC+, which includes Russia and other allies, began increasing output in April 2025 after years of cuts. Producers such as the United States, Guyana, and Brazil also lifted production. OPEC+ paused output hikes for the first quarter of 2026. Eight members will meet on March 1 to decide whether to resume increases in April. In January, global oil supply fell by 1.2 million barrels per day to 106.6 million barrels per day due to outages in Kazakhstan and other areas. The IEA lowered its 2026 supply growth forecast to 2.4 million barrels per day from 2.5 million. OPEC+ pumped 43.3 million barrels per day in January, down 160,000 from December. That level remains well above the IEA estimate for demand for OPEC+ crude, which stands at 39.7 million barrels per day in the first quarter and 39.6 million in the second. Data published by OPEC on Wednesday showed a much smaller surplus in the second quarter and a supply deficit in 2026 overall if output stays at January levels, based on Reuters calculations. If you're reading this, you’re already ahead. Stay there with our newsletter .
