hodler

26 Mar 2026, 17:20

Federal Reserve Interest Rates: Crucial Reuters Poll Signals Steady Policy Until September

BitcoinWorld Federal Reserve Interest Rates: Crucial Reuters Poll Signals Steady Policy Until September A pivotal Reuters survey of economists delivers a clear forecast for 2025: the Federal Reserve intends to maintain its benchmark policy rate within the 3.50% to 3.75% range until at least September. This projection underscores a deliberate shift toward a prolonged period of monetary policy stability following several years of aggressive adjustments. Consequently, markets and consumers must now prepare for an extended phase of steady borrowing costs. Federal Reserve Interest Rates Enter a Holding Pattern The latest Reuters poll crystallizes a significant consensus among financial analysts. Specifically, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) appears committed to its current policy stance. This decision directly stems from recent economic data showing inflation moderating toward the Fed’s 2% target, albeit with persistent pressures in services sectors. Furthermore, labor market resilience provides the committee with room to assess incoming data without immediate action. Historically, the Fed has utilized such pauses to evaluate the lagged effects of previous rate hikes. The current cycle, which began in 2022, represents one of the most rapid tightening phases in decades. Therefore, holding steady allows previous policy moves to fully permeate the economy. This cautious approach aims to avoid overtightening, which could trigger an unnecessary recession. Analyzing the Reuters Poll Methodology and Findings Reuters conducted its survey between March 10 and March 15, 2025, polling 100 economists from major banks and research institutions. The results show remarkable alignment. Reuters Poll: Fed Funds Rate Forecast 2025 Period Median Forecast Percentage of Economists in Agreement Q2 2025 (April-June) 3.50%-3.75% 92% Q3 2025 (July-September) 3.50%-3.75% 85% Q4 2025 (October-December) 3.25%-3.50% 65% The data reveals strong conviction for stability through September. However, a minority expects a potential 25-basis-point cut by year’s end. Key drivers for this outlook include: Core PCE Inflation: Sticky around 2.5%, above the 2% target. Unemployment Rate: Holding below 4.0%, indicating a tight labor market. GDP Growth: Projected at a moderate but positive 1.8% for 2025. Global Factors: Stabilizing energy prices and contained geopolitical risks. Expert Analysis on the Fed’s Strategic Patience Senior economists emphasize the Fed’s data-dependent framework. “The committee has clearly entered a watchful waiting phase,” notes Dr. Anya Sharma, Chief Economist at the Global Policy Institute. “Their forward guidance, combined with recent FOMC meeting minutes, prioritizes confidence in the inflation trajectory over calendar-based decisions.” This perspective is widely shared across Wall Street research desks. Market pricing, as reflected in Fed Funds futures, largely corroborates the Reuters poll. Currently, futures assign an 80% probability to unchanged rates at the June, July, and September FOMC meetings. This alignment between survey data and market instruments strengthens the forecast’s credibility. Moreover, the Fed’s own Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) from March 2025 showed a median dot-plot prediction consistent with this holding pattern. Real-World Impacts of Sustained Interest Rates For consumers and businesses, a steady policy rate until September carries significant implications. Mortgage rates, which loosely track the 10-year Treasury yield, will likely remain elevated compared to the pre-2022 era. This stability, however, provides predictability for long-term financial planning. Auto loans and credit card APRs will also plateau, affecting household budgets. Corporate investment decisions may proceed with greater certainty. A known cost of capital reduces one major variable in business planning. Conversely, savers will continue to benefit from higher yields on savings accounts and certificates of deposit. The broader economic impact suggests a continuation of moderated, stable growth without the stimulus of rate cuts or the drag of further hikes. Historical Context and the Path Beyond September The projected pause until September 2025 would mark one of the longest steady periods in the current cycle. To understand this, one must examine the timeline of recent monetary policy. 2022-2024: Aggressive hiking cycle from near-zero to 5.50%. Late 2024: Initial pivot to a hold, followed by two 25-basis-point cuts. Early 2025: Establishment of the current 3.50%-3.75% range. Looking beyond September, the policy path remains contingent on data. The Reuters poll indicates a divergence in views for Q4 2025, with a slight majority expecting a cut. The primary risk to the hold scenario is a unexpected downturn in employment or a sharper-than-expected decline in inflation. Conversely, a resurgence of price pressures could extend the holding period further. Conclusion The Reuters poll provides a crucial data point for understanding the Federal Reserve’s trajectory. The consensus for holding the policy rate at 3.50%-3.75% until at least September 2025 signals a mature phase in the monetary policy cycle. This period of stability offers markets and the economy a chance to adjust to the new interest rate environment. Ultimately, the Fed’s commitment to its data-dependent framework will guide all future decisions, with the Reuters survey serving as a key benchmark for analyst expectations. FAQs Q1: What is the current Federal Reserve policy rate? The Federal Reserve’s target range for the federal funds rate is 3.50% to 3.75%, as of March 2025, according to the latest FOMC statement and Reuters survey data. Q2: Why would the Fed hold rates steady for so long? The Fed is likely holding rates steady to fully assess the impact of previous rapid hikes on inflation and the economy, ensuring it does not cut rates prematurely and risk a resurgence of inflation. Q3: How does this Reuters poll affect mortgage and loan rates? A projected steady Fed policy rate suggests mortgage, auto, and personal loan rates will remain relatively stable in the near term, as they are influenced by longer-term Treasury yields which correlate with Fed policy expectations. Q4: What economic conditions could force the Fed to change course before September? A sudden spike in inflation, a significant weakening of the labor market, or a major financial stability event could prompt the Fed to either hike or cut rates before its projected September hold date. Q5: Where can I find the official source for the Reuters poll data? The poll data is published by Reuters news agency. The findings are typically summarized in their economic news coverage and detailed in reports from their polling team, which surveys a wide panel of economists. This post Federal Reserve Interest Rates: Crucial Reuters Poll Signals Steady Policy Until September first appeared on BitcoinWorld .

26 Mar 2026, 17:09

Historic verdict holds Meta and YouTube accountable for addictive design and harm to young users

A California jury rule d We dnesday that Meta and YouTube are responsible for harming users through how their platforms are designed. Legal experts are calling it historic and drawing comparisons to the tobacco industry battles from the 1990s. The case finished up i n the Lo s Angeles Superior Court after six weeks of proceedings that started back in late January. A young woman identified in court documents as K.G.M., or Kaley, claime d sh e became addicted to Instagram and YouTube as a child. Jurors began deliberatin g on Fr iday, March 13. They spent nearly 44 hours across nine days before reaching their decision. Both companies were found to have played a substantial role in causing mental health damage. Meta’s on the hook for 70 percent of the $3 million in compensatory damages, with YouTube covering the rest. There’s also punitive damages – another $3 million, with Meta paying $2.1 million and YouTube $900,000. Families whose children were allegedly harmed by social media hugged each other outside the courthouse when the verdict came down. Two jurors spoke with reporters. The foreman only gave his first name – Matthew. He sai d th ey worked hard to keep their personal feelings out of their discussions. “We stuck to following the law and how it was presented to us. ” Another juror, Victoria, didn’t mince words. “We wanted them to feel it,” she said. “We wanted them to realize this was unacceptable.” “For years, social media companies have profited from targeting children while concealing the addictive and dangerous design features built into their platforms,” attorney Mark Lanier said. “Today, we finally have accountability.” Tech giants plan appeals Meta says it disagrees with the verdict and plans to appeal, calling teen mental healt h “p rofoundly complex” and insisting you can’t link it to one app. Google’s also planning to appeal. Just a day earlier, on Tuesday, Meta took another hit. A New Mexico jury found the company deliberately violated state consumer protection laws. Attorney General Raúl Torrez accused Meta of failing to protect children from online predators. That case resulted in $375 million in damages. Critics argue whether these fines will actually make a di fference A Fox Business correspondent said in an X post, “If it’s just money that they have to pay in the end, it’s just a speeding ticket as they have deep pockets of cash”. Meta pulls in more than $100 billion every year. So a $375 million penalty? That’s not going to fundamentally change anything. It’s basically a business expense. There’s a similar story with Google. Courts have found the company runs a search monopoly. That’s not speculation – it’s been legally established. But here’s the thing: nobody broke the company up. There was no major overhaul. Instead, some limited fixes were put in place, and Google’s control over search remains pretty much untouched. The Los Angeles case is serving as a bellwether for similar lawsuits throughout California. TikTok and Snap were originally defendants but settled befor e tr ial started. They’re still involved in other legal proceedings though. A federal trial’s scheduled for this summer in Northern California. That one combines claims from school districts and parents nationwide against Meta, YouTube, TikTok, and Snap over alleged mental health harms to young users . Get seen where it counts. Advertise in Cryptopolitan Research and reach crypto’s sharpest investors and builders.

26 Mar 2026, 16:41

Your Crypto Sits Idle in a Sideways Market — Here’s How to Make It Work

Over the past week, crypto markets have moved without direction. Bitcoin fluctuated within a narrow ~2% range, total market cap showed similar stability, and even Ethereum’s ~6% move stayed within typical short-term volatility. There is no clear trend, no breakout, and no strong momentum. This is what a sideways market looks like. For holders, this creates a specific problem. Price appreciation stalls, but exposure remains. Capital sits in wallets, waiting for the next move. In practice, many portfolios become passive by default. Sideways Markets Turn Holding Into Opportunity Cost In a trending market, doing nothing can still produce returns. In a sideways market, it usually doesn’t. If BTC trades within a tight range for weeks, it provides no meaningful gains but continued volatility exposure. This creates an opportunity cost. The asset remains deployed in risk terms, but not in productive terms. At the same time, user behavior has shifted. Instead of chasing high-risk yield strategies, holders increasingly look for: liquidity predictable returns simple mechanisms that do not lock capital This is where structured savings products that make crypto work enter the picture. Making Crypto Work Without Trading There are only a few ways to extract value from a sideways market: trade short-term volatility use assets as collateral generate yield on holdings Trading requires time and precision. Borrowing introduces leverage and risk management. Yield, when structured properly, remains the most straightforward approach. The key variable is not the yield itself, but the conditions attached to it: Is capital locked? Are rates transparent? Can funds be accessed instantly? Most platforms still rely on lock-ups, tiered rates, or token requirements. That structure limits flexibility exactly when flexibility matters most. Clapp Savings: Liquid Yield Instead of Passive Holding Clapp.finance offers two savings formats designed around different holding strategies: flexible and fixed. Flexible Savings: Liquidity First Flexible Savings allows users to earn on crypto balances without committing assets. 5.2% APY on stablecoins and EUR Daily interest payouts with automatic compounding No lock-up period Instant deposits and withdrawals, 24/7 Minimum entry from 10 EUR/USD Funds remain fully accessible at all times, which changes how capital behaves in a sideways market. Instead of choosing between holding and acting, users retain both options. This matters in practice. If the market breaks out, capital can be redeployed immediately. If it doesn’t, the position continues generating yield. Fixed Savings: Predictability Over Flexibility For longer-term positioning, Clapp offers fixed-term savings : Up to 8.2% APR Terms from 1 to 12 months Guaranteed rate locked at entry Optional auto-renewal This format suits holders who do not plan to react to short-term market movements and prefer defined returns over optionality. Why Liquidity Defines the Current Cycle The structure of the current market cycle favors liquidity over maximum yield. Several factors explain this shift: volatility remains high even without trend macro-driven moves can occur abruptly users avoid being locked during market inflections In this environment, daily compounding with instant access becomes more relevant than nominal APY alone. Clapp’s model reflects this shift. Rates are clearly defined, payouts are predictable, and capital is not restricted by complex conditions or hidden tiers. Final Thoughts Sideways markets tend to test patience. They also expose inefficiencies in how portfolios are managed. Crypto does not need to remain idle while prices consolidate. The infrastructure to make it productive already exists. The difference lies in choosing structures that do not restrict access or obscure returns. Clapp’s savings products approach this directly: flexible accounts for liquidity and daily yield fixed accounts for predictable returns In a market without direction, the goal shifts from timing to utilization. Capital that continues to work is easier to hold through uncertainty. Disclaimer: This article is provided for informational purposes only. It is not offered or intended to be used as legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice.

26 Mar 2026, 16:07

Brazil Passes Law to Use Seized Bitcoin, Crypto to Fund Public Security Measures

A new law in Brazil will allow authorities to seize digital assets like Bitcoin to help combat organized crime and fund public security.

26 Mar 2026, 16:04

MARA taps Bitcoin reserves to cut $1B in debt as corporate treasury strategies evolve

MARA sold 15,133 BTC to fund a $1B debt repurchase, signaling a shift toward active Bitcoin treasury management among public companies.

26 Mar 2026, 15:35

Cohere Transcribe: Revolutionary Open-Source Voice Model Shatters Transcription Benchmarks

BitcoinWorld Cohere Transcribe: Revolutionary Open-Source Voice Model Shatters Transcription Benchmarks In a significant move for enterprise AI and accessible speech technology, Cohere has launched Transcribe, its first open-source voice model designed specifically for high-accuracy transcription. This launch, announced on Thursday, introduces a powerful yet efficient tool that challenges established players in the automatic speech recognition (ASR) landscape. The model’s release signals a strategic push by Cohere to democratize advanced AI capabilities for developers and businesses seeking self-hosted solutions. Cohere Transcribe: Technical Specifications and Core Advantages Cohere’s Transcribe model is engineered for practicality and performance. With a relatively lean architecture of 2 billion parameters, the model is specifically designed to run on consumer-grade GPUs. This design choice dramatically lowers the barrier to entry for developers, researchers, and companies who wish to self-host a state-of-the-art transcription engine without requiring massive, expensive computing infrastructure. The model currently supports transcription across 14 major languages: English, French, German, Italian, Spanish, Portuguese, Greek, Dutch, Polish, Chinese, Japanese, Korean, Vietnamese, and Arabic. This multilingual capability positions it as a versatile tool for global applications. Furthermore, Cohere claims impressive processing speed, stating Transcribe can handle 525 minutes of audio in just one minute, a notable throughput for its model class. Benchmark Performance and Competitive Landscape According to Cohere, Transcribe delivers exceptional accuracy. The company reports that the model achieves an average word error rate (WER) of 5.42 on the Hugging Face Open ASR leaderboard. This score reportedly surpasses models like Zoom Scribe v1, IBM Granite 4.0 1B, ElevenLabs Scribe v2, and Qwen3-ASR-1.7B Speech. Word error rate is a critical metric in speech recognition, measuring the number of incorrect words in a transcription relative to a human-generated reference; a lower WER indicates higher accuracy. In human evaluations focused on accuracy, coherence, and usability, Cohere states Transcribe achieved an average win rate of 61% against other models. However, the company candidly notes the model currently lags behind some competitors when transcribing Portuguese, German, and Spanish, indicating areas for future refinement. This transparency about strengths and weaknesses adds credibility to their performance claims. The Strategic Shift Towards Open-Source AI The decision to release Transcribe as an open-source model aligns with a broader industry trend. Companies are increasingly leveraging open-source projects to build developer communities, accelerate adoption, and establish their technology as a standard. For Cohere, which has built its reputation on providing powerful AI through an API, this move expands its reach. It allows users who have data privacy concerns, specific customization needs, or cost constraints related to API calls to implement the technology directly. Cohere plans to integrate Transcribe into its enterprise agent orchestration platform, Command, and will also offer the model via its API for free. Additionally, it will be available on Model Vault, Cohere’s managed inference platform. This multi-channel availability provides flexibility for different user needs, from hands-on developers to enterprises seeking a fully managed service. Market Context and Growing Demand for Speech AI The launch of Transcribe arrives during a period of explosive growth in demand for speech recognition technology. Applications are proliferating across sectors: Productivity Tools: Note-taking and dictation apps like Otter.ai, Descript, and newer entrants are increasingly popular. Enterprise Efficiency: Companies use transcription for meeting summaries, customer service analysis, and content accessibility. Media & Content Creation: Automating subtitles, transcripts for podcasts, and video content is a massive market. Healthcare and Legal: Accurate transcription of patient notes or legal proceedings remains a critical need. This demand is driven by the remote work evolution, the content creation boom, and a universal push for operational efficiency. Cohere’s model, with its balance of performance and accessibility, is well-timed to capture a segment of this expanding market. Cohere’s Trajectory and Financial Backdrop Cohere’s launch of a flagship open-source model comes amid reports of strong financial performance. Earlier this year, the company reportedly informed investors it was generating annual recurring revenue of $240 million in 2025. CEO Aidan Gomez has also been cited suggesting the startup may pursue an initial public offering “soon.” The release of a competitive, open-source product like Transcribe could serve to bolster its valuation narrative by demonstrating technological leadership and a strategy to capture broader market share beyond its core API business. The company, co-founded by Gomez who was a co-author of the seminal “Attention is All You Need” transformer paper, has positioned itself as a leading provider of enterprise-grade AI. Its focus on robustness, security, and customization for business needs differentiates it from more consumer-focused AI labs. Conclusion Cohere’s introduction of the Transcribe model represents a pivotal development in the speech recognition arena. By offering a high-performance, open-source alternative optimized for accessible hardware, Cohere is challenging the status quo and empowering a wider range of users to implement advanced transcription. While it shows some limitations in specific languages, its leading benchmark scores in English and overall high human evaluation win rate make it a formidable new option. As the demand for accurate, efficient, and private speech-to-text solutions continues to surge, tools like Cohere Transcribe will play an increasingly critical role in shaping how businesses and developers interact with voice data. This launch not only strengthens Cohere’s product portfolio but also intensifies competition in the AI transcription market, ultimately driving innovation and better tools for end-users. FAQs Q1: What is Cohere Transcribe? Cohere Transcribe is an open-source automatic speech recognition (ASR) model launched by the AI company Cohere. It is specifically designed for transcription tasks like note-taking and speech analysis and is built to run efficiently on consumer-grade GPUs. Q2: How accurate is the Cohere Transcribe model? According to Cohere, Transcribe achieves an average word error rate (WER) of 5.42 on the Hugging Face Open ASR leaderboard, which it claims is lower than several competing models. In human evaluations for accuracy and coherence, it had an average win rate of 61%. Q3: What languages does Cohere Transcribe support? The model currently supports 14 languages: English, French, German, Italian, Spanish, Portuguese, Greek, Dutch, Polish, Chinese, Japanese, Korean, Vietnamese, and Arabic. Q4: Is Cohere Transcribe free to use? Yes, the model is open-source and can be self-hosted for free. Cohere is also making it available through its public API for free, and it will be on their Model Vault platform. Q5: What are the hardware requirements for running Cohere Transcribe? Cohere designed Transcribe to be relatively lightweight (2 billion parameters) so it can run on consumer-grade GPUs, making it accessible for individuals and organizations without dedicated, high-end AI server infrastructure. This post Cohere Transcribe: Revolutionary Open-Source Voice Model Shatters Transcription Benchmarks first appeared on BitcoinWorld .