hodler

31 Mar 2026, 13:02

Google Says Breaking Bitcoin May Need 80% Fewer Qubits Than Expected and Bitcoin’s Own Upgrade Made It Worse

Google’s quantum computing division just released a research paper that puts Bitcoin’s very own existence into question. The research from the Quantum AI team says that cracking Bitcoin’s elliptic curve cryptography could require less than 500,000 physical qubits. For context, this is roughly 80% less than earlier estimates which were in the millions. The same study also mentions that a sufficiently advanced quantum computer could intercept a live Bitcoin transaction in about nine minutes, which is faster than the network’s average confirmation time of around 10 minutes, succeeding about 41% of the time. At the same time, Google has already indicated that it will complete migration of its own authentication infra to post-quantum cryptography by 2029. This just shows that the company building the hardware recognizes the threat and the urgency needed to act. Source: Google Quantum AI There are roughly one-third of all BTC in circulation today, or 6.9 million BTC, worth around $456 billion that sit in wallets where the public keys are visible on-chain. Part of the reason for that is Bitcoin’s own Taproot upgrade, a protocol improvement that was supposed to enhance privacy but inadvertently defaulted to exposing public keys. Here’s what the research actually says, what Taproot changed, and where Bitcoin’s quantum preparedness actually stands right now. Google Lowered the Qubit Estimate by 80%: Here’s What That Means The quantum threat for Bitcoin has been a narrative for years now. However, this week, researchers from Google quantum AI division released a paper that narrowed the timeline even further. As reported in SpendNode and Crypto Briefing , the study found that breaking Bitcoin’s ECDSA cryptography may require only 500,000 physical qubits, which is far less than previous estimates that ranged into the millions. Approximately 1,200 to 1,450 high-quality logical qubits could be enough for an attack. The paper also mentions that a powerful enough quantum computer could intercept a live Bitcoin transaction within roughly nine minutes and redirect transactions faster than the network can confirm transactions around 41% of the time. It’s important to note that a huge caveat still exists. No quantum computer in 2026 is anywhere close to executing this. Projections for a cryptographically relevant quantum computer vary from being 10 to 15 years away with more conservative outlooks pointing 20 or even 40 years. That, however, is actually besides the point. The resource estimate just dropped by 80% and that means what was seen as a multi-generational threat becomes a problem that we could realistically see within this decade. The shift isn’t that the threat has arrived, it’s that the assumptions underpinning Bitcoin’s security runway just got a lot less comfortable. One Third of All Bitcoin Is Already Exposed and Taproot Made It Worse Data from SpendNode states that roughly 6.9 million BTC, around one-third of all Bitcoins in circulation, sit in wallets where public keys are visible on-chain. At the time of writing, this is around $456 billion worth of Bitcoin that is essentially exposed to a potential quantum attack. The vulnerability comes from how Bitcoin addresses work: when a transaction is sent, the sender’s public key is briefly revealed on-chain. In theory, a sufficiently powerful quantum computer could use that public key to reverse-engineer the corresponding private key and redirect funds before the network finalises anything. That mechanism is the core of what Google’s paper is describing. The number of wallets under threat is large and Bitcoin’s own Taproot upgrade that went live in November 2021, actually inadvertently widened this number. The upgrade was designed to improve privacy and efficiency which it delivered on. However, Taproot, by design, makes public keys visible for Taproot-type transactions. This means, every wallet that has ever sent BTC using a Taproot address has their public keys visible on-chain. That said, wallets that have only received transactions and never sent are safer since the public keys stay hidden behind a hash. There are no quantum computers that can act on this vulnerability at this stage. However, the concern is that the gap between “doesn’t exist” and “does exist” just got measurably narrower. Google Says 2029: Bitcoin Has No Plan On March 25, Google set a hard deadline of 2029 for its own authentication services to migrate to post-quantum cryptography. According to DL News, the company moved from demonstrating below-threshold error correction to setting a firm corporate migration deadline in just 16 months. That signal in itself is very hard to push aside. The organisation actually building the hardware is telling its own engineers to be ready in three years. Bitcoin’s position looks considerably different — no coordinated plan, no funding structure, no agreed timeline. The only formal step on record is BIP 360, a proposal for a quantum-resistant address format recently merged into Bitcoin’s improvement repository per Decrypt. It’s a starting point for a conversation, not a deployment. The deeper issue is structural. Bitcoin’s last major cryptographic upgrade, Taproot, took years of community debate before finally activating in November 2021 — and that was a far less contentious change than a full post-quantum migration would be. Bitcoin’s decentralised, consensus-driven governance has historically been one of its genuine strengths — it has kept bad ideas out just as effectively as it has slowed good ones down. That trade-off works well when threats are abstract and timelines are long. It works less well when the company building the relevant hardware has just put a date on it. Three years is not a lot of runway for a network that takes years just to agree on the shape of a proposal and as Benzinga noted , the timeline just set by google puts Bitcoin developers “on the hot seat”. What This Means for BTC Holders and What to Watch The 2029 deadline is for Google, not Bitcoin. That said, the fact that the company building the hardware has set a date for its own systems to migrate says a lot about the timeline for potential quantum capabilities that could threaten Bitcoin’s cryptography. For now, wallets that have only received and never sent a transaction using Taproot are on the safe side. On the other hand, the most exposed Bitcoin is concentrated in wallets that have actively transacted using Taproot addresses. When we come to the market side, this news has not moved price in any meaningful way just yet. Bitcoin is about to close Q1 at over -24%, making it the weakest first quarter since 2018. This decline, however, has had nothing to do with the quantum fear but is instead a result of the Iran conflict and the broader macro economic headwinds. The timing of this news however is certainly not favourable for Bitcoin. If this narrative starts to pick up steam, it could rattle an already fragile market and cause a further decline in price. Whether proposals like BIP 360 evolve into actual activation discussions, and whether Google’s quantum milestones, especially progress toward the ~1,200 logical qubit threshold identified in its research, begin to materialize are what needs to be monitored at this stage. The threat isn’t immediate, but the timeline is no longer abstract and that’s the shift the market hasn’t priced in yet. If you're reading this, you’re already ahead. Stay there with our newsletter .

31 Mar 2026, 10:17

U.S. Revives Uranium Finance Hack Case With Maryland Charges

Federal prosecutors in New York have charged a Maryland man in connection with the 2021 Uranium Finance hacks, a DeFi case that had gone quiet for years before investigators recovered part of the stolen crypto. The Southern District of New York said Jonathan Spalletta, 36, of Rockville, Maryland, surrendered on March 30, 2026 after an indictment was unsealed. He faces one count of computer fraud and one count of money laundering. Prosecutors said the case centers on two April 2021 attacks against Uranium Finance, a decentralized exchange that operated on BNB Chain. According to the indictment summary, the first exploit took place between April 6 and April 8, 2021 and drained about $1.4 million by abusing the protocol’s reward system. The DOJ said the larger second attack came on April 28, 2021, when a coding error let the attacker siphon about $53.3 million from 26 liquidity pools. The DOJ said the second exploit effectively destroyed the platform. Investigators allege Spalletta then moved and concealed the proceeds through swaps and mixing services, including Tornado Cash. The government also said he later spent part of the money on rare collectibles, including high value trading cards, coins, and other historical items. Those claims remain allegations unless proven in court. Seizure Brought Old DeFi Theft Back to Life The case appears to have regained momentum after a major seizure last year. In February 2025, U.S. authorities seized about $31 million tied to the Uranium Finance exploits. TRM Labs, which assisted the investigation, said law enforcement traced funds that had moved across multiple blockchains and through laundering routes over several years before the seizure took place. That recovery gave the Uranium Finance case new life and showed how old DeFi thefts can still lead to criminal charges. TRM said some of the stolen assets had remained dormant for years before moving again, which helped investigators map the laundering trail. The seizure did not cover the full amount taken, but it marked one of the more notable recoveries tied to an older DeFi exploit. The DOJ has also asked possible victims to contact investigators by email. If convicted, Spalletta faces a maximum sentence of 10 years on the computer fraud charge and 20 years on the money laundering charge, though any sentence would be decided by the court. For now, the case stands as one of the clearest signs that U.S. authorities are still pursuing large crypto thefts long after the original attack.

31 Mar 2026, 02:24

Indictment Against BNB Chain Hacker Spalletta

New York Prosecutor's Office filed an indictment against Jonathan Spalletta, who hacked BNB Chain-based Uranium Finance in 2021. $54M was stolen, funds were spent on collections. Spalletta surrende...

30 Mar 2026, 15:30

IMF Warns War Could Trigger Prolonged Inflation and Devastating Recession

BitcoinWorld IMF Warns War Could Trigger Prolonged Inflation and Devastating Recession WASHINGTON, D.C., March 15, 2025 – The International Monetary Fund issued a stark warning today that ongoing geopolitical conflicts threaten to entrench inflation and trigger a severe global recession. This sobering assessment comes as policymakers worldwide grapple with persistent economic instability. IMF Warns of Prolonged Inflation Spiral The IMF’s latest Global Economic Outlook report delivers concerning projections about inflationary pressures. Consequently, the organization emphasizes that conflict-driven disruptions create persistent price increases. Specifically, supply chain interruptions and energy market volatility sustain these inflationary trends. Moreover, the report notes that inflation expectations are becoming dangerously unanchored. Historical data reveals troubling patterns. For instance, previous conflict periods show similar economic deterioration. The table below illustrates comparative inflation impacts: Conflict Period Average Inflation Increase Duration of Impact Current Conflict Projected 4-6% 24+ months Previous Regional Conflict 3.2% 18 months Historical Benchmark 2.1% 12 months Furthermore, the IMF identifies several transmission channels for inflationary pressure. These channels include: Energy market disruptions affecting production costs Transportation bottlenecks increasing delivery expenses Labor market dislocations pushing wage pressures Currency volatility impacting import prices Asymmetric Shock to Global Economy The IMF analysis highlights how conflicts create uneven economic impacts across regions. Developing nations face particularly severe consequences from this asymmetric shock. Specifically, food and fertilizer price spikes disproportionately affect these vulnerable economies. Agricultural markets demonstrate clear vulnerability. Wheat and corn futures have surged dramatically since hostilities began. Similarly, fertilizer prices have increased by approximately 300% in affected regions. These increases threaten food security for millions globally. Expert Analysis of Financial Conditions Financial market tightening represents another critical concern. Central banks worldwide confront difficult policy decisions as a result. They must balance inflation control against recession prevention. This balancing act becomes increasingly challenging during geopolitical crises. Former IMF Chief Economist Kenneth Rogoff commented on this dilemma recently. He noted, “Monetary policymakers face their most complex environment in decades.” Additionally, current IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva emphasized coordinated responses. She stated that international cooperation remains essential for stabilization. Market reactions have been pronounced. Government bond yields have fluctuated significantly across major economies. Meanwhile, equity markets show increased volatility. Risk premiums have expanded substantially in emerging markets particularly. Recession Risk Assessment and Projections The probability of global recession has increased according to IMF modeling. Their analysis suggests multiple triggering mechanisms could initiate economic contraction. These mechanisms include: Demand destruction from sustained high prices Investment reduction due to uncertainty Trade fragmentation disrupting global commerce Consumer confidence erosion affecting spending Historical precedents provide concerning context. Previous conflict-related recessions typically lasted 12-18 months. Recovery periods often extended beyond 24 months. Employment impacts proved particularly persistent during these episodes. Regional variations will likely characterize any downturn. Europe faces particular vulnerability given energy dependencies. Asia confronts supply chain disruption risks. Africa struggles with food security challenges. The Americas experience financial market transmission effects. Policy Responses and Mitigation Strategies The IMF recommends several policy approaches to address these risks. Targeted fiscal support for vulnerable populations represents one priority. Structural reforms to enhance economic resilience offer another avenue. International coordination on food and energy security provides crucial stabilization. Central bank communication strategies require particular attention. Clear forward guidance can help anchor inflation expectations. Gradual policy normalization may prevent excessive tightening. However, delayed action risks embedding inflationary psychology. Supply-side interventions deserve increased emphasis. Strategic commodity reserves could buffer price spikes. Diversified energy sources would reduce vulnerability. Agricultural productivity investments might enhance food security. Transportation infrastructure improvements would ease bottlenecks. Conclusion The IMF warning about war-driven inflation and recession risks highlights critical global economic vulnerabilities. Prolonged inflationary pressures threaten living standards worldwide. Asymmetric shocks particularly endanger developing economies. Consequently, coordinated international responses become increasingly urgent. Policymakers must balance immediate stabilization with long-term resilience building. The global community faces significant challenges in navigating these complex economic crosscurrents. FAQs Q1: What specific mechanisms connect conflict to inflation? Conflicts disrupt supply chains, increase transportation costs, create energy market volatility, and trigger commodity price spikes. These factors combine to push prices upward across multiple sectors simultaneously. Q2: How does the IMF define “asymmetric shock” in this context? An asymmetric shock affects different economies unevenly based on their exposure and vulnerability. Developing nations dependent on food and fertilizer imports experience disproportionate impacts compared to more diversified advanced economies. Q3: What time frame does the IMF consider “prolonged” for inflation? The IMF typically defines prolonged inflation as price increases persisting beyond 24 months with expectations becoming embedded in wage-setting and pricing behavior, creating self-reinforcing cycles. Q4: Which regions face the greatest recession risk according to the IMF? Europe faces significant risk due to energy dependencies, while Africa confronts food security challenges. Emerging markets with high debt levels and commodity import needs show particular vulnerability to financial tightening. Q5: What policy tools does the IMF recommend to address these risks? The IMF emphasizes targeted fiscal support for vulnerable populations, clear central bank communication, strategic commodity reserves, diversified energy policies, and enhanced international coordination on trade and finance. This post IMF Warns War Could Trigger Prolonged Inflation and Devastating Recession first appeared on BitcoinWorld .

30 Mar 2026, 03:10

EUR/USD Forecast: Critical Consolidation Above One-Week Low Sparks Vulnerability Fears Near 1.1500

BitcoinWorld EUR/USD Forecast: Critical Consolidation Above One-Week Low Sparks Vulnerability Fears Near 1.1500 The EUR/USD currency pair, a cornerstone of the global forex market, is currently navigating a precarious phase of consolidation just above a one-week low. This technical positioning near the psychologically significant 1.1500 level signals potential vulnerability for the Euro against the US Dollar. Market participants globally are scrutinizing this development, as it reflects the ongoing tug-of-war between transatlantic monetary policies and economic resilience. EUR/USD Price Forecast: Analyzing the Current Consolidation Phase Technical charts reveal the EUR/USD pair has entered a phase of compressed price action. This consolidation follows a recent decline that established a fresh one-week low. Consequently, the pair now trades within a narrowing range, with the 1.1500 handle acting as a formidable technical and psychological barrier. Market analysts often view such periods of low volatility as precursors to significant directional moves. Furthermore, the 50-day and 200-day simple moving averages are converging, adding to the technical tension. This convergence typically indicates a potential breakout is imminent. Traders are therefore monitoring volume flows closely for any signs of accumulation or distribution. Key Technical Levels and Market Structure The immediate market structure shows clear support and resistance zones. The recent one-week low provides initial support, while the 1.1500 level presents a strong resistance cluster. A decisive break above 1.1500 could open the path toward 1.1550. Conversely, a failure to hold consolidation could see a retest of lower supports near 1.1450. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) currently hovers near neutral territory, confirming the lack of strong momentum in either direction. This equilibrium, however, appears fragile given the macro-economic backdrop. Fundamental Drivers: Central Bank Policy and Economic Data The fundamental landscape provides critical context for the pair’s technical vulnerability. Primarily, divergent monetary policy trajectories between the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Federal Reserve (Fed) are in focus. The Fed has maintained a data-dependent but vigilant stance on inflation. Recent US employment and Consumer Price Index (CPI) figures have reinforced expectations of a patient approach to rate cuts. In contrast, the ECB faces a more complex growth-inflation trade-off within the Eurozone. Slower growth indicators from major economies like Germany are pressuring the central bank. This policy divergence directly influences capital flows and exchange rate valuations. Key economic indicators influencing the EUR/USD forecast include: US Non-Farm Payrolls and CPI: Strong data supports the US Dollar’s yield advantage. Eurozone GDP and PMI Data: Weak figures undermine the Euro’s fundamental appeal. Central Bank Communication: Speeches from ECB and Fed officials are parsed for policy clues. Geopolitical Risk Premium: Regional instability can drive safe-haven flows into the USD. Expert Analysis on Near-Term Trajectory Financial institutions provide a measured outlook. For instance, analysts at major banks note that while the Euro may find temporary support from oversold conditions, the broader trend favors Dollar strength until Eurozone data improves. The consensus suggests the 1.1500 level will act as a pivotal battleground. A sustained break below could trigger algorithmic selling and shift the medium-term forecast bearishly. Market sentiment, as measured by the CFTC’s Commitments of Traders report, currently shows a net-short positioning on the Euro, underscoring the prevailing cautious stance. Historical Context and Volatility Implications Historically, periods of consolidation near round-number levels like 1.1500 often precede elevated volatility. The current environment mirrors similar phases observed in Q4 2023. Market participants are also watching implied volatility metrics from forex options markets. A sharp rise in volatility expectations would signal growing concern about a potential breakdown. The interplay between technical patterns and scheduled economic events, such as the upcoming ECB meeting minutes, will likely determine the next major move. Recent EUR/USD Key Technical Levels Level Type Significance 1.1550 Resistance Previous swing high & 50-day SMA 1.1500 Pivot Zone Psychological & Technical Resistance 1.1480 (Current) Consolidation One-week low support zone 1.1450 Support Key February low & 200-day SMA Conclusion The EUR/USD forecast hinges on the pair’s ability to sustain its consolidation above the recent one-week low. The technical setup shows clear vulnerability near the 1.1500 resistance level. Ultimately, the resolution of this tension will depend on the evolving fundamental narrative, particularly from central banks. Traders should prepare for increased volatility as this critical technical juncture is tested. The coming sessions will be crucial for determining whether this consolidation represents a pause before a recovery or a precursor to further declines. FAQs Q1: What does consolidation above a one-week low mean for EUR/USD? Consolidation indicates a pause in the recent downward move, where buyers and sellers reach a temporary equilibrium. However, its occurrence just above a key low and near major resistance like 1.1500 often signals indecision and can precede a significant breakout in either direction. Q2: Why is the 1.1500 level so important for the Euro to Dollar exchange rate? The 1.1500 level is a major psychological and technical round number. It has historically acted as both strong support and resistance. A sustained break above or below it can trigger substantial follow-through trading due to stop-loss orders and algorithmic trading models reacting to the level. Q3: What fundamental factors are making EUR/USD vulnerable? The primary vulnerability stems from the monetary policy divergence, where the Federal Reserve is perceived as being more patient on rate cuts compared to the European Central Bank, which faces weaker growth. Stronger US economic data relative to Eurozone data also supports the US Dollar. Q4: How do traders typically react to this kind of technical setup? Traders often adopt a range-bound strategy within the consolidation zone, buying near support and selling near resistance (1.1500). They also prepare for a breakout by setting pending orders above resistance and below support, while closely monitoring upcoming economic calendars for catalysts. Q5: What would signal a change from vulnerability to strength for the EUR/USD pair? A decisive daily close above the 1.1500 resistance, accompanied by strong volume and a fundamental catalyst like unexpectedly hawkish ECB commentary or weak US data, would signal a shift. Such a move would likely target the next resistance levels near 1.1550 and 1.1600. This post EUR/USD Forecast: Critical Consolidation Above One-Week Low Sparks Vulnerability Fears Near 1.1500 first appeared on BitcoinWorld .

29 Mar 2026, 19:53

DeFi Crisis Deepens After One Key Breach Sparks $25M Loss

The Decentralized Finance sector is once again under scrutiny after a rapid security breach drained about $25 million from a major protocol, exposing persistent vulnerabilities and renewing concerns about structural risks across the broader DeFi market. According to details shared by industry participants, the exploit targeted the stablecoin protocol Resolv, which had accumulated more than