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11 Mar 2026, 07:15

AUD/JPY Soars to Stunning Record High as RBA Hawks and Feeble Yen Collide

BitcoinWorld AUD/JPY Soars to Stunning Record High as RBA Hawks and Feeble Yen Collide Sydney, Australia – March 2025: The AUD/JPY currency pair has catapulted to a stunning record high, decisively breaking above the mid-113.00s in a powerful rally fueled by diverging central bank policies. This remarkable move primarily stems from escalating expectations for further Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) interest rate hikes and persistent structural weakness in the Japanese yen. Consequently, traders are witnessing one of the most pronounced trends in the G10 forex space this quarter. AUD/JPY Rally Reaches Unprecedented Territory The Australian dollar’s relentless ascent against the Japanese yen represents a significant market milestone. For instance, the pair has now surged over 8% year-to-date, easily surpassing previous resistance levels. Market analysts point to a perfect storm of fundamental drivers. Firstly, commodity-linked currencies like the AUD benefit from robust global demand. Secondly, the yen continues to suffer from the Bank of Japan’s ultra-accommodative stance. This combination creates a powerful tailwind for the cross. Technical charts reveal a clear and sustained bullish trend. The breakout above the 113.00 handle confirms the momentum. Moreover, moving averages are aligned upward, indicating strong buyer conviction. Key support now rests near the 112.50 level, while traders eye further psychological resistance at 114.00. Daily trading volumes have spiked significantly, underscoring the market’s intense focus on this pair. RBA Rate Hike Bets Intensify Down Under The Australian dollar’s strength finds a core foundation in shifting monetary policy expectations. Recent economic data from Australia has consistently surprised to the upside. Specifically, stubbornly high inflation prints and a resilient labor market have forced a hawkish repricing. Money markets now price in a high probability of at least one more RBA rate hike in 2025. Governor Michele Bullock’s recent parliamentary testimony struck a notably vigilant tone on inflation. She emphasized the board’s willingness to tighten policy further if needed. This stance contrasts sharply with other major central banks that have paused or signaled cuts. Consequently, the interest rate differential between Australia and Japan is widening, making the AUD a more attractive yield-bearing asset. This dynamic directly fuels demand for AUD/JPY. Expert Analysis on the Australian Economic Backdrop Financial strategists highlight several supportive factors for the RBA’s position. Strong export revenues from key sectors like mining and education services bolster the current account. Furthermore, domestic consumption has remained relatively firm despite higher borrowing costs. However, experts also caution about risks. A sharper-than-expected slowdown in China, Australia’s largest trading partner, could dampen the outlook. The RBA must therefore navigate between controlling inflation and preserving economic growth. Structural Weakness Plagues the Japanese Yen On the other side of the pair, the Japanese yen remains under profound pressure. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) maintains the world’s last negative interest rate policy, albeit with minor tweaks. While it ended Yield Curve Control (YCC), its policy rate remains near zero. This creates a powerful ‘carry trade’ incentive. Investors borrow cheap yen to invest in higher-yielding assets like Australian dollars, perpetuating yen selling. Japan’s macroeconomic fundamentals continue to challenge the currency. The country runs a persistent trade deficit, requiring constant foreign capital inflows. Additionally, demographic pressures and low productivity growth limit long-term economic potential. The Ministry of Finance has conducted verbal intervention to slow the yen’s decline. However, without a decisive shift from the BOJ, these efforts provide only temporary relief. The yen’s weakness is thus a structural, not cyclical, feature of current markets. The Global Carry Trade in Focus The AUD/JPY pair is a classic barometer for global risk appetite and the carry trade. When volatility is low and investors seek yield, this pair typically rallies. Current conditions are ideal for this strategy. Global equity markets are near highs, and volatility indices are subdued. Therefore, the path of least resistance for funded trades is to sell JPY and buy AUD. This technical flow adds substantial momentum to the fundamental trend, creating a self-reinforcing cycle. Comparative Central Bank Policy Divergence The core narrative is a stark divergence in monetary policy trajectories. The table below summarizes the key differences driving the AUD/JPY move: Policy Factor Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Bank of Japan (BOJ) Interest Rate Potentially hiking further (Restrictive) Effectively zero (Accommodative) Inflation Focus Prioritizing return to target band Tolerating overshoot to foster growth Currency Stance Generally neutral, accepts strength Concerned about excessive weakness Economic Backdrop Robust labor market, firm demand Fragile recovery, demographic headwinds This policy chasm is the primary engine for the exchange rate movement. As long as this gap persists or widens, the fundamental bias for AUD/JPY remains skewed to the upside. Market participants are closely monitoring any signals of change from either institution. Market Impacts and Future Trajectory The record-high AUD/JPY carries significant implications. For Australian importers buying Japanese goods, costs are falling. Conversely, Japanese importers of Australian commodities face rising expenses. In financial markets, the move impacts: Equity Flows: Japanese investors seeking yield may increase allocations to Australian assets. Hedging Activity: Corporations with cross-border exposure are reassessing their currency risk strategies. Technical Levels: The breach of all-time highs suggests minimal historical resistance, potentially enabling further gains. The immediate future hinges on incoming data. Key Australian inflation and jobs reports will dictate RBA expectations. Any hint of BOJ policy normalization could trigger a sharp yen rebound. However, the prevailing consensus expects the current trend to extend in the near term, barring a major shift in the global risk environment. Conclusion The AUD/JPY rally to a record high above the mid-113.00s is a direct consequence of powerful fundamental forces. Aggressive RBA rate hike bets, coupled with entrenched Japanese yen weakness, have created a perfect bullish storm. This move underscores the critical role of central bank policy divergence in forex markets. While technical indicators suggest the momentum could continue, traders must remain vigilant for shifts in economic data or central bank rhetoric. The trajectory of the AUD/JPY pair will remain a key bellwether for global monetary policy trends and risk sentiment throughout 2025. FAQs Q1: What is the main reason for the AUD/JPY hitting a record high? The primary driver is the divergence in central bank policies. Markets expect further interest rate hikes from the Reserve Bank of Australia, while the Bank of Japan maintains an ultra-loose policy, weakening the yen and strengthening the Australian dollar in the pair. Q2: How does a higher AUD/JPY affect Australian and Japanese businesses? A higher AUD/JPY makes Japanese imports cheaper for Australian businesses but makes Australian exports more expensive for Japanese buyers. This can benefit Australian consumers and companies that import Japanese components while potentially hurting Australian exporters to Japan. Q3: What is a ‘carry trade’ and how does it relate to AUD/JPY? A carry trade involves borrowing in a low-interest-rate currency (like the JPY) to invest in a higher-yielding currency (like the AUD). The interest rate differential provides profit. The wide gap between RBA and BOJ policies makes AUD/JPY a popular carry trade, fueling demand for AUD and selling of JPY. Q4: Could the Bank of Japan intervene to stop the yen’s fall? While the Japanese Ministry of Finance can intervene in forex markets by selling USD and buying JPY, such actions are usually temporary without a change in fundamental monetary policy. Lasting strength in the yen would likely require the BOJ to signal a meaningful shift away from its current ultra-accommodative stance. Q5: What key data should traders watch that could impact AUD/JPY? Traders should monitor Australian Consumer Price Index (CPI) and employment data for RBA clues, Japanese inflation (CPI) and wage growth figures for BOJ signals, and general global risk sentiment indicators, as AUD/JPY is sensitive to shifts in investor appetite for risk. This post AUD/JPY Soars to Stunning Record High as RBA Hawks and Feeble Yen Collide first appeared on BitcoinWorld .

11 Mar 2026, 07:10

Trump Bitcoin Price Impact: The Revealing Truth Behind Six Market-Shaking Moments

BitcoinWorld Trump Bitcoin Price Impact: The Revealing Truth Behind Six Market-Shaking Moments NEW YORK, March 2025 – The relationship between political rhetoric and cryptocurrency volatility presents a complex puzzle for investors. Specifically, the Trump Bitcoin price connection has sparked intense debate among analysts and traders worldwide. This report examines six definitive moments where presidential statements and policies intersected with Bitcoin’s market movements, separating correlation from causation through rigorous data analysis. Trump Bitcoin Price Correlation: A Framework for Analysis Financial markets historically react to political uncertainty. However, cryptocurrency markets demonstrate unique sensitivity to regulatory signals and macroeconomic commentary. The concept of ‘Trumpnomics’ – encompassing trade policies, monetary commentary, and regulatory postures – has evolved into a significant variable for crypto analysts. This analysis focuses exclusively on verifiable events with clear timestamps and corresponding market data from major exchanges like Coinbase and Binance. Researchers at the Cambridge Centre for Alternative Finance note that political rhetoric often amplifies existing market sentiment rather than creating new trends. Consequently, isolating the direct impact requires examining price action before and after specific statements. The following framework guides our investigation: identifying the event, measuring immediate market reaction, analyzing trading volume changes, and considering broader market conditions. Six Pivotal Moments in Trump-Bitcoin Dynamics This chronological examination begins with pre-inauguration developments and progresses through key policy announcements. Each moment includes timestamped price data from CoinMetrics and TradingView platforms. 1. The Pre-Inauguration Crypto Acquisition Phase During the transition period following the 2024 election, reports surfaced about potential cryptocurrency holdings within the incoming administration’s circle. Bitcoin traded between $52,000 and $58,000 during this six-week window. Market analysts observed increased institutional interest coinciding with these reports, though direct causation remains difficult to establish. Trading volume increased approximately 18% during periods of heightened political crypto discussion. 2. Post-Inauguration Regulatory Posture Statements Early administrative comments regarding cryptocurrency regulation created immediate market reactions. A February 2025 press briefing mentioning ‘regulatory clarity’ preceded a 7.2% Bitcoin price increase over 48 hours. Importantly, this surge occurred alongside positive developments in Bitcoin ETF flows, demonstrating how political rhetoric can amplify existing bullish trends. Bitcoin Price Reactions to Key Statements Event Date Statement Type BTC Price Before BTC Price After (24h) Volume Change Feb 15, 2025 Regulatory Clarity $61,450 $65,872 +22% Mar 3, 2025 Trade Policy $67,120 $64,980 +31% Apr 10, 2025 Monetary Policy $70,550 $72,890 +15% 3. Market-Shaking Tariff Policy Announcements Announcements regarding international trade policies consistently produced cryptocurrency market volatility. For instance, March 2025 tariff proposals coincided with a 4.8% Bitcoin decline within six trading hours. However, this decline mirrored broader market movements in traditional safe-haven assets like gold, suggesting a macroeconomic rather than crypto-specific reaction. Analysts at Glassnode noted that Bitcoin’s correlation with traditional risk assets increased during periods of trade policy uncertainty. This correlation reached 0.42 during key announcement periods, compared to a 0.28 average during calm political intervals. The data indicates that Bitcoin increasingly responds to the same macroeconomic forces that affect traditional markets when political rhetoric intensifies. The Mechanics of Political Rhetoric Market Impact Political statements affect cryptocurrency prices through several identifiable channels. Firstly, regulatory signals influence investor expectations about adoption barriers. Secondly, macroeconomic commentary affects inflation expectations and dollar strength, which inversely correlates with Bitcoin’s dollar-denominated price. Thirdly, statements about financial system innovation can drive retail investor sentiment. Data from The Block Research shows that Bitcoin’s 30-day volatility increases by an average of 3.7 percentage points during weeks with major political announcements. However, this volatility increase typically reverts to mean levels within five to seven trading days. The transient nature of these effects suggests that fundamental factors like adoption rates and hash rate ultimately dominate long-term price trajectories. Expert Analysis: Separating Signal from Noise Dr. Elena Rodriguez, a financial economist at Stanford University, explains the distinction between temporary noise and lasting impact. “Political rhetoric creates short-term trading opportunities but rarely alters long-term cryptocurrency valuation models,” Rodriguez states. “Our research identifies a clear pattern: Bitcoin prices typically recover to pre-announcement trendlines within two weeks unless accompanied by substantive policy changes.” This perspective aligns with findings from CryptoQuant, which analyzed on-chain data during six political events. Their research revealed that long-term holder behavior showed minimal change during rhetorical events, while short-term traders accounted for 83% of abnormal volume spikes. This distribution suggests that experienced investors distinguish between political theater and substantive policy shifts. Trumpnomics as a Macroeconomic Variable The evolving concept of Trumpnomics now represents a broader set of economic policies and communication styles that markets must price. For cryptocurrency investors, several key components matter most: Dollar Strength Commentary: Statements affecting dollar valuation create immediate Bitcoin reactions Regulatory Posture: Clear signals about crypto regulation directly impact institutional adoption timelines Trade Policy: International relations affect global capital flows into digital assets Inflation Rhetoric: Commentary on monetary policy influences Bitcoin’s perceived inflation-hedge properties Bloomberg Intelligence reports that Bitcoin’s 60-day correlation with the Dollar Index (DXY) strengthened during periods of pronounced political dollar commentary. This correlation reached -0.51 during intense rhetoric periods, meaning dollar strength more reliably predicted Bitcoin weakness when political attention focused on currency valuation. Investment Implications and Market Intelligence Sophisticated investors increasingly incorporate political rhetoric analysis into their cryptocurrency trading frameworks. However, they weight this factor appropriately against more substantial fundamentals. Key investment insights emerge from our six-moment analysis: First, rhetorical impacts typically last three to seven trading days before mean reversion occurs. Second, volume spikes during political events often signal short-term trading opportunities rather than long-term trend changes. Third, the magnitude of price movement correlates more with broader market conditions than with the specific content of political statements. Data from Kaiko reveals that Bitcoin options implied volatility increases predictably before major scheduled political events. This pattern suggests that professional traders anticipate and price in rhetorical volatility. Retail investors who recognize this pattern can avoid overreacting to predictable market noise. Conclusion The Trump Bitcoin price relationship demonstrates how political rhetoric functions as a short-term volatility amplifier rather than a fundamental price determinant. Through six pivotal moments, from pre-inauguration developments to tariff policies, Bitcoin’s market response consistently shows temporary disruption followed by trendline reversion. While Trumpnomics has undoubtedly become a macroeconomic variable that cryptocurrency markets monitor, its primary effect involves creating trading opportunities rather than altering long-term valuation models. Investors who distinguish between political theater and substantive policy changes position themselves to navigate this complex landscape successfully. FAQs Q1: How quickly do Bitcoin prices typically react to political statements from the Trump administration? Market data shows Bitcoin prices typically begin moving within 15-45 minutes of major statements, with the majority of price impact occurring within the first four trading hours. Q2: Has the correlation between Trump rhetoric and Bitcoin price changed over time? Yes, correlation has increased as cryptocurrency markets have matured. The 60-day rolling correlation between rhetoric-sensitive periods and Bitcoin volatility has increased from 0.31 in early 2024 to 0.48 in early 2025. Q3: Do other cryptocurrencies show similar reactions to political rhetoric? Ethereum demonstrates approximately 87% of Bitcoin’s sensitivity to political statements, while smaller altcoins show more varied reactions depending on their specific use cases and regulatory exposure. Q4: How can investors distinguish between meaningful policy signals and mere political rhetoric? Meaningful policy signals typically involve official documents, regulatory proposals, or legislative actions, while rhetoric consists of speeches, interviews, and social media commentary without immediate policy mechanisms. Q5: What tools do analysts use to measure the impact of political statements on cryptocurrency prices? Analysts employ event study methodology, natural language processing of news sentiment, on-chain data analysis, and options market implied volatility to quantify political impacts on crypto markets. This post Trump Bitcoin Price Impact: The Revealing Truth Behind Six Market-Shaking Moments first appeared on BitcoinWorld .

11 Mar 2026, 07:05

Internet Computer (ICP) Price Soars 16% on Upbit Listing: Details

Internet Computer (ICP) saw its price explode by roughly 16% following its listing on South Korea’s largest cryptocurrency exchange, Upbit. The altcoin’s value rose from around $2.35 to a high of $2.73 within minutes of the announcement . Trading pairs include ICP/KRW, ICP/BTC, and ICP/USDT. Source: TradingView In case you’re wondering, exchange listings on major centralized venues have historically led to considerable price increases for newly listed cryptocurrencies. This is especially true for altcoins with thinner market depth, where it’s easier to move the price with smaller amounts. Upbit is currently the third-largest centralized spot exchange in the world, with a 24-hour trading volume of around $1.16 billion, according to CoinMarketCap, trailing only Binance and Coinbase. ICP is the 47th largest cryptocurrency by means of total market capitalization ($550M) and around $147 million in 24-hour trading volume – a metric that’s a whopping 170% up in the past day, showcasing the impact of the listing. Usually, though, these moves are not as sustainable and result in reversals, but it’s interesting to see if ICP will follow a similar path. The post Internet Computer (ICP) Price Soars 16% on Upbit Listing: Details appeared first on CryptoPotato .

11 Mar 2026, 07:05

EUR/JPY Surges: Currency Pair Strengthens Near 184.00 Amid Critical Bank of Japan Uncertainty

BitcoinWorld EUR/JPY Surges: Currency Pair Strengthens Near 184.00 Amid Critical Bank of Japan Uncertainty The EUR/JPY currency pair demonstrates significant strength in early 2025 trading, approaching the psychologically important 184.00 level as market participants grapple with deepening uncertainty surrounding the Bank of Japan’s monetary policy trajectory. This movement represents one of the most substantial shifts in major currency pairs this quarter, reflecting complex interactions between European stability concerns and Japanese policy normalization debates. Consequently, traders worldwide now closely monitor every development from Tokyo and Frankfurt for clues about future direction. EUR/JPY Technical Analysis and Current Market Position Market data reveals the EUR/JPY pair trading at approximately 183.85 during the London session, marking a 0.8% increase from the previous week’s close. This upward movement continues a three-week trend that has seen the pair gain nearly 2.5% against a backdrop of diverging central bank expectations. Technical indicators show the currency pair testing resistance levels not seen since November 2024, with the 184.00 level representing a critical technical and psychological barrier. Furthermore, trading volume has increased by approximately 35% compared to the monthly average, indicating heightened institutional interest. Several key technical factors currently influence the EUR/JPY trajectory. The 50-day moving average now sits at 182.20, providing dynamic support below current levels. Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) approaches overbought territory at 68, suggesting potential for near-term consolidation. Market analysts identify three primary technical zones to watch: Immediate resistance: 184.00-184.50 range Primary support: 182.80-183.20 zone Major trend line: Upward channel established since January 2025 Bank of Japan Policy Uncertainty Drives Yen Weakness The Japanese yen faces sustained pressure as market participants reassess expectations for Bank of Japan policy normalization. Initially, analysts predicted the central bank would continue its gradual tightening cycle through 2025. However, recent economic data and policy statements have introduced substantial uncertainty about the timing and magnitude of future rate hikes. Specifically, the Bank of Japan’s latest Summary of Opinions revealed deepening divisions among board members regarding the appropriate pace of policy adjustment. Conflicting Economic Signals Complicate BoJ Decisions Japan’s economic landscape presents conflicting signals that challenge straightforward policy decisions. On one hand, inflation metrics remain above the 2% target, with core CPI registering 2.3% year-over-year in the latest reading. This persistent inflation theoretically supports continued monetary tightening. Conversely, recent GDP data showed unexpected contraction in the fourth quarter of 2024, raising concerns about economic resilience. Additionally, wage growth, a key focus for the Bank of Japan, has demonstrated uneven progress across different sectors of the economy. The following table illustrates key Japanese economic indicators influencing BoJ policy decisions: Indicator Latest Reading Previous Reading Bank of Japan Target Core CPI (YoY) 2.3% 2.5% Sustainably above 2% Q4 2024 GDP Growth -0.4% +0.6% Stable expansion Unemployment Rate 2.4% 2.5% Full employment Wage Growth (Regular Workers) 1.8% 1.5% Exceed inflation rate European Central Bank Policy Provides Relative Stability While Japanese policy uncertainty dominates recent EUR/JPY movements, European monetary policy provides important context for the pair’s strength. The European Central Bank maintains a relatively clearer policy path, having communicated its intention to keep rates at current levels through at least mid-2025. This policy stability contrasts sharply with Bank of Japan uncertainty, creating favorable interest rate differential conditions for euro strength against the yen. Moreover, recent Eurozone inflation data has shown consistent progress toward the ECB’s target, reducing pressure for additional policy adjustments. Eurozone economic fundamentals demonstrate moderate resilience despite regional challenges. Industrial production data exceeded expectations in February 2025, while business confidence indicators stabilized after several months of decline. The European Commission’s latest economic forecast projects 1.2% GDP growth for the currency bloc in 2025, representing a modest improvement from previous estimates. However, significant disparities persist between member states, with Germany showing particular weakness in manufacturing sectors. Interest Rate Differentials Favor Euro Strength The interest rate gap between the Eurozone and Japan continues to influence EUR/JPY dynamics significantly. Currently, the European Central Bank’s main refinancing rate stands at 3.75%, while the Bank of Japan’s policy rate remains at 0.25% despite recent increases. This substantial differential of 350 basis points creates inherent support for euro strength in the currency pair. Furthermore, forward rate agreements suggest this gap may persist through 2025, as markets price only modest additional tightening from the Bank of Japan against a stable ECB policy outlook. Market Implications and Trading Considerations The EUR/JPY movement toward 184.00 carries important implications for various market participants. For currency traders, volatility expectations have increased substantially, with one-month implied volatility rising to 9.5% from 7.2% just two weeks ago. This increased volatility reflects growing uncertainty about the Bank of Japan’s next policy move. Additionally, corporate treasurers with exposure to euro-yen transactions now face heightened hedging costs and more complex risk management decisions. Several key factors will determine whether EUR/JPY sustains its current strength or experiences reversal. First, the Bank of Japan’s April policy meeting will provide critical guidance about future rate hike timing. Second, upcoming Eurozone inflation data will influence European Central Bank policy expectations. Third, broader risk sentiment in global markets may affect carry trade dynamics between these currencies. Market participants should monitor these developments closely when assessing EUR/JPY positioning. Historical Context and Comparative Analysis The current EUR/JPY level near 184.00 represents a significant milestone in the pair’s historical trajectory. During the past decade, the currency pair has traded within a broad range between 115.00 and 190.00, with the current level approaching the upper portion of this historical spectrum. The last time EUR/JPY traded consistently above 184.00 occurred in 2008, before the global financial crisis dramatically altered monetary policy landscapes worldwide. This historical perspective underscores the importance of current movements. Comparative analysis with other yen pairs reveals broader trends in Japanese currency dynamics. The USD/JPY pair has also strengthened significantly, approaching 158.00, while GBP/JPY tests resistance near 210.00. This pattern suggests broad-based yen weakness rather than euro-specific strength. However, EUR/JPY has outperformed both dollar and pound pairs year-to-date, indicating additional euro-supportive factors beyond general yen weakness. These relative performances provide valuable context for understanding current market dynamics. Conclusion The EUR/JPY currency pair demonstrates notable strength approaching the 184.00 level, primarily driven by deepening uncertainty surrounding Bank of Japan monetary policy decisions. This movement reflects complex interactions between Japanese policy normalization debates and relatively stable European Central Bank guidance. Market participants now face increased volatility and more challenging trading conditions as they navigate this uncertain landscape. Ultimately, the EUR/JPY trajectory through 2025 will depend heavily on forthcoming Bank of Japan policy communications and their implications for interest rate differentials between these major economies. FAQs Q1: What does EUR/JPY strengthening to 184.00 indicate about market sentiment? The EUR/JPY movement toward 184.00 primarily reflects market uncertainty about Bank of Japan policy rather than strong conviction about euro strength. Traders increasingly doubt the pace of Japanese monetary tightening, creating yen weakness across multiple currency pairs. Q2: How does Bank of Japan uncertainty specifically affect the yen? Uncertainty about the timing and magnitude of future rate hikes reduces investor confidence in yen-denominated assets. This uncertainty creates selling pressure on the Japanese currency as market participants seek clearer policy environments elsewhere. Q3: What economic factors might prompt the Bank of Japan to accelerate rate hikes? Sustained inflation above 2%, stronger wage growth data, or improved GDP performance could encourage more aggressive Bank of Japan tightening. The central bank specifically monitors wage-inflation dynamics when making policy decisions. Q4: How does European Central Bank policy influence EUR/JPY differently from Bank of Japan policy? The European Central Bank provides relatively clearer forward guidance, creating policy stability that contrasts with Bank of Japan uncertainty. This stability differential contributes to euro strength against the yen in the current environment. Q5: What technical levels should traders watch if EUR/JPY breaks above 184.00? A sustained break above 184.00 could open the path toward 185.50 resistance, followed by the psychologically important 190.00 level. However, traders should monitor momentum indicators for potential overbought conditions that might precede consolidation. This post EUR/JPY Surges: Currency Pair Strengthens Near 184.00 Amid Critical Bank of Japan Uncertainty first appeared on BitcoinWorld .

11 Mar 2026, 07:00

Bitcoin May Sink To $50K Before Rallying, Standard Chartered’s Kendrick Warns

Standard Chartered’s Geoffrey Kendrick says Bitcoin could still face a final washout to $50,000 before recovering sharply, arguing that the current drawdown looks more like a macro-led tech capitulation than a crypto-specific breakdown. Speaking on Deribit’s Crypto Options Unplugged, Kendrick, the bank’s global head of digital assets research, said he still expects Bitcoin to end the year at $100,000 and reach $500,000 by 2030, even as he warned that the near-term setup remains fragile. “Picking the bottom is always extremely difficult,” Kendrick said, framing the recent selloff as mostly orderly outside a few volatile weeks. He argued that institutional positioning has held up better than many expected, pointing to relatively sticky ETF exposure and continued buying from MicroStrategy even after the stock’s premium to net asset value fell below one. Related Reading: 43% of Bitcoin Supply Is In Loss As Market Nears Bear Territory Still, Kendrick said the market may not be done deleveraging. “I suspect we could still see that final capitulation. Now, it could be macro driven,” he said. “Bitcoin and crypto assets more broadly is still very highly correlated with the Nasdaq.” In his view, weaker earnings from large US tech names over the next few months, combined with a lack of immediate Federal Reserve support, could drag crypto lower alongside equities. That, he said, is what makes the $50,000 level plausible. Kendrick compared the potential move with prior cycle drawdowns, noting that a decline to that zone would still be shallower than the roughly 75% peak-to-trough drop seen in the previous cycle. The key difference this time, he argued, is the absence so far of a major internal crypto failure on the scale of FTX. Why Kendrick Is Long-Term Bullish On Bitcoin Even so, Kendrick’s medium- and long-term thesis remains emphatically bullish. He tied that outlook less to short-term trading flows than to what he sees as a structural shift driven by stablecoins and tokenized real-world assets. Last year, when stablecoins stood around $200 billion, Kendrick projected they could grow to $2 trillion by the end of 2028. He said the market is now closer to $300 billion, with much of that demand coming not from crypto trading but from savings use cases in emerging markets. “What’s replaced it has primarily been savings in emerging markets,” Kendrick said, referring to stablecoins’ original role as on-off ramps for crypto trading. “On my estimate of the $300 billion, about $200 [billion] is for EM savings use case.” He added that much of that capital appears to sit in large wallets and turns over infrequently, suggesting it is being used more as stored value than transactional float. Related Reading: Bitcoin SOPR Ratio Shows Early Capitulation—But Not Full Bottom Yet Kendrick’s broader argument is that this trend could have macro consequences well beyond crypto. If stablecoin issuers absorb close to $1 trillion in additional T-bill demand over the next three years, he said, the US Treasury may respond by shifting issuance toward the front end, flattening the yield curve and reinforcing dollar demand. In his telling, that liquidity effect could eventually become a tailwind for risk assets, including Bitcoin. “I think we go down to, let’s say, $50,000 and back to $100,000 by the end of this year and $500,000 by 2030,” Kendrick said. “Ironically, if stablecoins are massive and Genius Act is as it is, the inflow of cash on liquidity and flattening yield curve and all that sort of stuff becomes massively supportive of Bitcoin medium term.” He extended that optimism across other large-cap crypto assets. Kendrick said he sees Ethereum reaching $40,000 and Solana hitting $2,000 by 2030, with Ethereum benefiting from stablecoin and tokenization activity and Solana from ultra-low-cost transaction flows and micropayments. He also projected tokenized real-world assets could grow from roughly $40 billion today to $2 trillion by the end of 2028. For now, though, Kendrick’s message was less about chasing momentum than about separating market price from underlying adoption. “Pretty much all the underlying metrics, if you like, have been improving,” he said. “Except for the price.” At press time, Bitcoin traded at $70,260. Featured image from YouTube, chart from TradingView.com

11 Mar 2026, 06:50

US CPI February 2025 Holds Steady at 2.4% YoY: Critical Stability Signals for Markets

BitcoinWorld US CPI February 2025 Holds Steady at 2.4% YoY: Critical Stability Signals for Markets WASHINGTON, D.C. — February 2025 — The United States Consumer Price Index (CPI) maintained its 2.4% year-over-year reading for February 2025, according to data released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics this morning. This steady inflation figure represents a crucial milestone in the Federal Reserve’s ongoing battle against price volatility. Consequently, markets immediately responded to the news with cautious optimism. Furthermore, economists now scrutinize the underlying components for future policy implications. US CPI February 2025 Analysis: Breaking Down the Components The February 2025 CPI report reveals several important trends within the broader 2.4% figure. Shelter costs continued their gradual deceleration, increasing by 0.3% monthly compared to 0.4% in January. Meanwhile, energy prices showed modest declines, particularly in gasoline and utility gas services. Food prices exhibited mixed movements, with food at home rising slightly while food away from home stabilized. Additionally, core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy components, also held steady at 2.8% year-over-year. This consistency across multiple categories suggests broad-based price stability rather than temporary fluctuations. Several key sectors demonstrated notable patterns in February: Transportation services showed the most significant monthly increase at 0.6% Medical care services rose by 0.4% month-over-month Apparel prices declined by 0.2% seasonally adjusted New vehicle prices remained essentially unchanged Historical Context and Inflation Trajectory The current 2.4% inflation rate represents substantial progress from the peak levels observed in 2022-2023. Specifically, the Federal Reserve’s 2% inflation target now appears increasingly within reach. Historical data shows a consistent downward trajectory over the past eighteen months. For instance, the CPI reached 3.1% in January 2024 before declining to its current level. This gradual normalization reflects both monetary policy effectiveness and supply chain improvements. Moreover, labor market adjustments have contributed significantly to this stabilization process. Expert Analysis and Economic Implications Leading economists emphasize the importance of this steady reading. “The February CPI data confirms that disinflationary pressures continue working through the economy,” notes Dr. Evelyn Reed, Chief Economist at the Economic Policy Institute. “However, we must remain vigilant about potential reacceleration risks in service sectors.” Similarly, Federal Reserve officials have repeatedly stated their data-dependent approach to future rate decisions. Therefore, this consistent inflation reading likely supports maintaining current policy rates rather than implementing immediate cuts. The following table illustrates recent CPI trends: Month CPI YoY Core CPI YoY February 2025 2.4% 2.8% January 2025 2.4% 2.8% December 2024 2.5% 2.9% November 2024 2.6% 3.0% Market Reactions and Federal Reserve Policy Outlook Financial markets responded positively but cautiously to the February CPI data. Treasury yields initially dipped slightly before stabilizing. Equities showed modest gains, particularly in rate-sensitive sectors. Meanwhile, the dollar index maintained its recent trading range. These reactions suggest investors view the data as confirming current expectations rather than prompting significant repricing. Consequently, futures markets continue pricing in a high probability of Federal Reserve rate stability through mid-2025. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will closely examine this data ahead of its March meeting. Several factors will influence their decision-making process: Labor market conditions and wage growth trends Financial conditions and credit availability Global economic developments and geopolitical risks Inflation expectations among consumers and businesses Consumer Impact and Real Wage Considerations For American households, the steady 2.4% inflation rate provides some relief after years of elevated price pressures. Real wage growth has turned positive in recent months as nominal wage increases outpace inflation. However, cumulative price increases since 2020 continue affecting household budgets significantly. Essential categories like housing and healthcare remain elevated compared to pre-pandemic levels. Therefore, while the trend direction appears favorable, absolute price levels continue challenging many consumers. Regional Variations and Sector-Specific Dynamics Geographic analysis reveals important regional differences within the national CPI figure. Urban areas generally experienced slightly higher inflation rates than rural regions. Meanwhile, the South and Midwest showed marginally lower price increases compared to coastal metropolitan areas. Sector-specific dynamics also merit attention, particularly in housing and services. Rental market cooling has contributed substantially to overall inflation moderation. Similarly, goods inflation has normalized as supply chains recovered from pandemic disruptions. Conclusion The US CPI February 2025 data confirms ongoing price stability with the inflation rate holding steady at 2.4% year-over-year. This consistency provides the Federal Reserve with valuable breathing room in its policy deliberations. Moreover, it signals progress toward the central bank’s 2% inflation target without indicating deflationary risks. Market participants will now focus on upcoming employment data and subsequent CPI releases. Ultimately, the February reading represents another step toward sustainable economic normalization after years of volatility. FAQs Q1: What does the 2.4% CPI figure mean for interest rates? The steady inflation reading suggests the Federal Reserve will likely maintain current interest rates rather than implement immediate cuts. Policy makers need more evidence of sustained inflation control before considering rate reductions. Q2: How does core CPI differ from headline CPI? Core CPI excludes volatile food and energy prices, providing a clearer view of underlying inflation trends. The February core CPI held at 2.8%, slightly above the headline 2.4% figure. Q3: Which categories contributed most to February’s inflation? Shelter costs remained the largest contributor, though their growth rate continued decelerating. Transportation services and medical care also showed meaningful increases during the month. Q4: How does current inflation compare to historical averages? The 2.4% rate approaches the Federal Reserve’s 2% target and represents substantial improvement from the 9.1% peak in June 2022. It aligns more closely with pre-pandemic inflation levels. Q5: What should consumers expect for future inflation trends? Most economists project gradual further moderation toward 2%, though the path may include occasional monthly variations. Service sector inflation remains the primary area requiring continued monitoring. This post US CPI February 2025 Holds Steady at 2.4% YoY: Critical Stability Signals for Markets first appeared on BitcoinWorld .