hodler

4 May 2026, 15:34

Binance Launches Withdrawal Lock Feature to Block Forced Fund Transfers

Binance added Withdraw Protection to block on-chain withdrawals for one to seven days, targeting forced crypto transfers during in-person coercion. The feature keeps trading and account access available while delaying outgoing transfers by default. Key Takeaways: Binance introduced Withdraw Protection to block on-chain withdrawals during user-selected lockdown windows. Coercion risks can bypass passwords, 2FA, and

4 May 2026, 15:25

Bitcoin jumps past $80K as Hormuz tensions catch traders off guard

Bitcoin has climbed past $80,000, triggering a wave of short liquidations as geopolitical developments and institutional demand continue to support the rally. According to data from Coingecko, BTC rose nearly 3% to reach $80,529 on Monday, pushing through a level that had capped price action for weeks while extending its monthly gains beyond 20%. Momentum picked up after Donald Trump outlined “Project Freedom” on May 3 via Truth Social, describing a US-led effort to guide stranded cargo ships through the Strait of Hormuz following disruptions tied to the US-Iran conflict. US officials framed the plan as a measure to assist foreign vessels, although Iranian authorities warned that any such intervention could violate the ceasefire and prompt a response. As prices moved higher, liquidation data from CoinGlass showed more than $160 million in Bitcoin short positions were wiped out, contributing to over $300 million in liquidations across the wider crypto market. Separate figures cited by market data indicate total short liquidations reached $452 million over a 24-hour period, pointing to aggressive positioning being forced out as price cleared resistance. Supply squeeze and institutional demand In the meantime, institutional activity has continued to tighten available supply. Commenting on the matter, Capriole Investments founder Charles Edwards said institutions are absorbing more than 500% of Bitcoin’s daily mined supply, with around 450 BTC produced per day following the April 2024 halving. Edwards noted that demand growth has outpaced supply expansion, citing a rate of change near 0.0139% for institutional buying compared to roughly 0.0022% for new issuance. He added that similar conditions in the past have led to average gains of about 24% over the following month, which would place Bitcoin near $96,000 by June if the pattern holds. Data tied to ETF inflows and corporate accumulation supports that trend, with roughly 70,000 BTC acquired in April compared to about 13,500 BTC mined in the same period. Spot Bitcoin ETFs in the US have recorded a fifth consecutive week of net inflows, with $153 million added last week, reinforcing demand from institutional channels. Further, on-chain data from Glassnode shows accumulation extending beyond large buyers, with wallets holding between 100 and 1,000 BTC adding over 61,000 BTC in the past 30 days. Smaller cohorts, including holders of 1 to 100 BTC, have also increased their balances during that period. Breakout levels draw trader focus According to well-followed crypto analyst Michaël van de Poppe, a move above $79,000 “opens the opportunities” for Bitcoin to target the $86,000 to $88,000 range, with a possible extension toward $90,000. Meanwhile, analyst Matthew Hyland called the latest price action a “disbelief rally,” adding that traders expecting a drop toward $60,000 may turn bullish closer to $90,000. Data from CryptoQuant added further context, with analyst Amr Taha noting two hourly buy volume spikes on Binance of roughly $1.19 billion and $792 million. “When this type of volume appears near a major breakout level, it often shows that traders are not waiting for a pullback; instead, they are chasing confirmation as the price moves higher,” Taha wrote. At the time of writing, Bitcoin was trading at $80,328, up 2% on the day. The post Bitcoin jumps past $80K as Hormuz tensions catch traders off guard appeared first on Invezz

4 May 2026, 15:20

Gold Declines Sharply as Hawkish Fed Bets and Firm US Dollar Weigh on Precious Metals

BitcoinWorld Gold Declines Sharply as Hawkish Fed Bets and Firm US Dollar Weigh on Precious Metals Gold declines as hawkish Fed bets and a firm US Dollar weigh on the precious metals market, pushing prices lower for a second consecutive session. Investors now reassess their positions ahead of key economic data releases. Gold Declines Amid Shifting Fed Expectations The yellow metal fell by 1.2% on Wednesday, trading near $2,340 per ounce. This drop marks the largest single-day decline in three weeks. Market participants now price in a higher probability of a rate hike at the Federal Reserve’s June meeting. Recent comments from Fed officials fuel this shift. Fed Governor Christopher Waller stated that the central bank needs ‘more evidence’ that inflation is moving sustainably toward the 2% target. His remarks echo those of Chair Jerome Powell, who emphasized patience on rate cuts. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of a rate hike in June rose to 18%, up from 8% last week. This hawkish repricing directly impacts gold, a non-yielding asset. Higher interest rates increase the opportunity cost of holding gold, which offers no interest or dividends. Impact of a Firm US Dollar The US Dollar Index (DXY) climbed to 105.80, its highest level since early March. A stronger dollar makes gold more expensive for buyers using other currencies. This dynamic typically suppresses demand and prices. The dollar gains strength from two main factors. First, the hawkish Fed stance attracts foreign capital seeking higher yields. Second, geopolitical uncertainties in Eastern Europe and the Middle East drive safe-haven flows into the greenback. Currency analysts at ING note that the dollar’s rally may have further room. ‘The US economy continues to outperform its peers,’ they write in a recent note. ‘This divergence supports a stronger dollar in the near term.’ Market Context: Gold’s Recent Rally Faces Resistance Gold had rallied nearly 15% since February, driven by strong central bank purchases and escalating geopolitical tensions. The People’s Bank of China added 6 tonnes to its reserves in April, marking its 18th consecutive month of purchases. However, the metal now faces strong technical resistance at the $2,400 level. Analysts point to overbought conditions on the daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) as a signal for a potential correction. ETF flows also tell a cautionary tale. The SPDR Gold Trust (GLD), the world’s largest gold-backed ETF, saw outflows of 2.3 tonnes on Tuesday. This follows a trend of reduced investor appetite for gold through exchange-traded products. Timeline of Key Events February 2024: Gold begins its rally from $2,050 amid Middle East tensions. April 2024: Prices hit an all-time high of $2,431 on April 12. Early May 2024: Fed signals no immediate rate cuts; gold corrects. May 15, 2024: US CPI data release; could further shape Fed expectations. June 11-12, 2024: Next FOMC meeting; rate decision and dot plot. Expert Perspectives on Gold Declines Market strategists offer varied views on the current pullback. Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank, describes the move as a ‘healthy correction’ within a longer-term uptrend. He cites ongoing central bank buying as a structural support. Conversely, Carsten Fritsch, analyst at Commerzbank, warns that further downside is possible. ‘If the dollar continues to strengthen and the Fed remains hawkish, gold could test the $2,300 support level,’ he says. Technical analysts note that the 50-day moving average sits near $2,310. A break below this level could trigger stop-loss orders, accelerating the decline. Comparing Gold to Other Assets Asset Weekly Change Year-to-Date Change Gold (XAU/USD) -1.8% +11.2% Silver (XAG/USD) -2.5% +8.5% S&P 500 Index +0.3% +9.8% US Dollar Index (DXY) +0.7% +3.4% Gold underperforms equities this week but still leads on a year-to-date basis. The divergence highlights the metal’s sensitivity to real interest rates and currency movements. Real-World Implications for Investors The current gold decline presents both risks and opportunities. For long-term holders, the pullback may offer a buying opportunity if the fundamental thesis remains intact. Central bank demand and geopolitical uncertainty continue to support prices. Short-term traders, however, face heightened volatility. The upcoming US Consumer Price Index (CPI) report on May 15 could either confirm the hawkish narrative or provide relief. A softer inflation print might weaken the dollar and lift gold. Options market data shows increased demand for put options at the $2,300 strike price. This suggests traders hedge against further downside in the near term. Broader Economic Context The gold decline occurs against a backdrop of mixed economic signals. US jobless claims rose to 231,000 last week, hinting at a cooling labor market. However, the services PMI remains in expansion territory at 51.3. Global factors also play a role. The European Central Bank signals a potential rate cut in June, which could weaken the euro and further strengthen the dollar. This indirect effect adds pressure on gold. Conclusion Gold declines as hawkish Fed bets and a firm US Dollar weigh on the precious metal, breaking its recent winning streak. Investors now focus on upcoming inflation data and Fed guidance for the next directional move. While the short-term outlook appears bearish, structural demand from central banks and ongoing geopolitical risks provide a floor. The gold market remains in a delicate balance, with the $2,300 level acting as a critical support zone. Any shift in Fed rhetoric or a weaker dollar could quickly reverse the current trend. FAQs Q1: Why is gold declining despite geopolitical tensions? A1: Gold declines because the US Dollar strengthens and hawkish Fed bets reduce its appeal. Higher interest rates increase the opportunity cost of holding gold, which offers no yield. Geopolitical tensions still support gold, but the dollar’s strength currently outweighs this factor. Q2: How does a hawkish Fed affect gold prices? A2: A hawkish Fed signals higher interest rates or a slower pace of cuts. This strengthens the dollar and raises bond yields. Both factors make gold less attractive compared to interest-bearing assets, leading to price declines. Q3: What is the key support level for gold? A3: The key support level is $2,300 per ounce. This coincides with the 50-day moving average. A break below this level could trigger further selling toward $2,250. Conversely, holding above $2,300 may lead to a consolidation or rebound. Q4: Should I buy gold during this decline? A4: This depends on your investment horizon. Long-term investors may see the pullback as a buying opportunity, given central bank demand and geopolitical risks. Short-term traders should wait for confirmation of a bottom, such as a bullish reversal pattern or a weaker dollar. Q5: When is the next major event for gold prices? A5: The next major event is the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) release on May 15, 2024. This data will influence Fed policy expectations. The FOMC meeting on June 11-12 is also critical, as it includes updated economic projections and the dot plot. Q6: Can gold still reach $2,500 this year? A6: Yes, several analysts maintain a $2,500 target for 2024. This requires a shift in Fed policy toward rate cuts or a significant escalation in geopolitical tensions. However, the current hawkish environment delays this timeline. A sustained break above $2,400 would be needed to confirm the bullish case. This post Gold Declines Sharply as Hawkish Fed Bets and Firm US Dollar Weigh on Precious Metals first appeared on BitcoinWorld .

4 May 2026, 15:19

BTCI: Getting Paid To Wait For Bitcoin's Recovery

Summary NEOS Bitcoin High Income ETF leverages a dynamic covered call strategy to convert Bitcoin volatility into high monthly income, now yielding around 27%. BTCI outperformed Bitcoin during the recent drawdown, delivering a smaller loss (-14.5% vs. -18.7%) and consistent distributions, validating its income-focused approach. Assets under management have more than doubled to $1.2B, reflecting strong investor conviction even through a 40% price decline. I rate BTCI a strong buy at current levels, citing historical recovery patterns, robust income, and a favorable entry point for long-term, income-oriented Bitcoin investors. Back in August 2025, I published an article introducing the NEOS Bitcoin High Income ETF ( BTCI ). I spoke about how its dynamic covered call strategy turns Bitcoin’s volatility into a steady monthly income stream. At that point, BTCI had already returned 58% since launching in October 2024, was yielding more than 25% annualized, and had gathered over $500 million in assets under management. I was bullish, so much so that I moved half of my Bitcoin allocation into BTCI and rated it a Buy. Since then, the crypto market has not done well. Bitcoin hit an all-time high of $126,210 on October 6, 2025, then sold off sharply, dropping to a local low near $60,000 in February 2026 before bouncing back. This week, it’s trading around $76,000, still about 38–40% below its peak. BTCI fell along with it. But the way it declined and what it kept paying throughout reinforces my conviction. I believe in BTCI and NEOS' strategy. Seeing the strategy being used in other funds, I believe this is a dip that is worth buying into. The upside potential is there for a patient long-term investor, and what it keeps paying throughout reinforces my conviction. I’m more bullish now than I was when I first covered it. How BTCI Has Performed Since My Last Article Bitcoin went on a massive run in October 2025, hit a peak, and has been trending lower ever since. BTCI benefited from that rally. The share price was in the low 60s, and the distributions were at roughly 1.4 dollars per share. When the crypto bear market started, BTCI suffered along with it. Currently trading in the mid-30s and with distributions ranging from 70 to 80 cents, BTCI has fallen a long way. BTCI will perform in line with bitcoin's price action, as BTCI is not designed to protect against bitcoin drawdowns. Seeking Alpha The more important question is how BTCI performed compared to holding bitcoin outright. Over the past year, we see that BTCI is down 14.49% in total return, while BTC is down 18.73%. The dynamic covered call strategy is doing its job during this downturn. Partially offsetting losses due to income coming in, steady cash flow makes a big difference when holding a stock during a downtrend. The pattern is exactly what you would expect and want from this structure: BTCI lags in explosive upside and outperforms during drawdowns. For income investors, that asymmetry is the entire point. Seeking Alpha Seeking Alpha Also important to NOTE the fund has continued to grow. At the time of my original article, BTCI had around $500 million in assets under management; it now sits at around $1.2 billion in total assets under management. The fund has gotten more popular, and investors have been buying the dip. This kind of conviction during a 40% drawdown tells you the market understands what this fund can do when the underlying starts to recover. QQQI Shows US the Blueprint for a Recovery - Proof of Concept One of the strongest arguments and reasons why I like BTCI right now actually has nothing to do with Bitcoin at all. It is about QQQI, NEOS's Nasdaq 100 covered call ETF that uses the same core strategy and is run by the same fund. QQQI has a longer track record and has already been through multiple market dips, giving us real-world data and a road map for how NEOS funds behave when the market pulls back and then eventually recovers. I have written about QQQI before and consider it my favorite covered call ETF. QQQI has experienced drawdowns of 20% before and has fully recovered in about 52 trading sessions, all while paying consistent monthly distributions. Investors who did not sell collected monthly income and did not lose any stock appreciation. The parallel to BTCI is direct, as both funds are built using the same strategy and team, just different underlyings. Both funds use an actively managed call strategy designed to collect income while also maintaining exposure to the long-term upside of the underlying asset. BTCI is now where QQQI was back in April of 2025, and the fund has fully recovered from the lows and has since hit all-time highs following the Nasdaq all-time highs. The key difference is the underlying volatility between the two underlying assets. Bitcoin is significantly more volatile than the Nasdaq 100, meaning that BTCI's distributions are much higher, sitting at around 27.8% compared to QQQI's at roughly 14.3% yearly yield. But the structure of the two funds and strategies used is practically the same. I believe once Bitcoin recovers and reaches all-time highs again, we will see BTCI's performance look very similar to QQQI's sharp recovery. Current Dip and Projections The current entry point looks better the more we break it down. BTCI is currently trading at around $36.50. With a 52-week range of $30.89 to $65.97. That puts it much closer to the lows than the highs, in a range that nearly doubled at its peak. The latest monthly distributions came in at $0.80 per share; at today's price, this shows a yield of 26.8%. That is not the 38% trailing figure some screens are showing; that number is inflated by significantly larger payouts when the price of BTCI was much higher. The current setup, choppy price action, macro uncertainty, and geopolitical tension are exactly when this strategy shines. The fund is getting paid to sit through the noise and wait for a recovery. BTCI won’t capture all of that upside, since part of it is sold through calls. But it keeps generating income along the way and still benefits when NAV recovers. You’re earning roughly a 27% forward yield while waiting for that to play out. Investors in similar income-focused strategies saw this before. During the April 2025 drawdown, holders of QQQI collected income through the decline and saw a full recovery within a few months. BTCI is now sitting at a similar kind of turning point. Let's take a look at three scenarios, using a $100,000 initial investment in BTCI at the market price at the time of writing ($36.43) with all of the monthly income reinvested. Projections : Base Case - NAV appreciates 3%/yr. Distributions are flat. Modest recovery, stable income. Year End Shares End Price Portfolio Value Annual Income Dist/Share 0 2,745 $36.43 $100,000 - $9.36 1 3,430 $37.52 $128,693 $25,693 $9.36 2 4,260 $38.65 $164,656 $32,102 $9.36 3 5,262 $39.81 $209,473 $39,877 $9.36 4 6,463 $41.00 $265,010 $49,253 $9.36 5 7,896 $42.23 $333,456 $60,496 $9.36 6 9,595 $43.50 $417,364 $73,904 $9.36 7 11,599 $44.80 $519,692 $89,807 $9.36 8 13,952 $46.15 $643,851 $108,568 $9.36 9 16,699 $47.53 $793,755 $130,588 $9.36 10 19,892 $48.96 $973,870 $156,303 $9.36 Bull Case - NAV appreciates 10.6%/yr, reaching $100/share by year 10. Distributions grow 8%/yr as sustained volatility generates richer option premiums. Year End Shares End Price Portfolio Value Annual Income Dist/Share 0 2,745 $36.43 $100,000 - $9.36 1 3,434 $40.30 $138,374 $27,749 $10.11 2 4,274 $44.58 $190,562 $37,486 $10.92 3 5,296 $49.56 $261,208 $50,398 $11.79 4 6,532 $54.56 $356,404 $67,443 $12.73 5 8,021 $60.36 $484,111 $89,838 $13.75 6 9,805 $66.77 $654,683 $119,134 $14.85 7 11,934 $73.86 $881,530 $157,286 $16.04 8 14,465 $81.71 $1,181,953 $206,759 $17.32 9 17,459 $90.40 $1,578,182 $270,644 $18.71 10 20,987 $100.00 $2,098,664 $352,797 $20.21 Bear Case: NAV declines 4%/yr. Distributions compress 4%/yr as lower volatility compresses option premiums. Year End Shares End Price Portfolio Value Annual Income Dist/Share 0 2,745 $36.43 $100,000 - $9.36 1 3,450 $34.97 $120,665 $24,665 $8.99 2 4,337 $33.57 $145,601 $29,763 $8.63 3 5,451 $32.23 $175,690 $35,913 $8.28 4 6,852 $30.94 $211,998 $43,335 $7.95 5 8,612 $29.70 $255,808 $52,290 $7.63 6 10,825 $28.52 $308,671 $63,096 $7.33 7 13,606 $27.38 $372,459 $76,135 $7.03 8 17,101 $26.28 $449,430 $91,869 $6.75 9 21,495 $25.23 $542,306 $110,854 $6.48 10 27,018 $24.22 $654,376 $133,762 $6.22 Summary: Scenario Year 5 Value Year 10 Value Year 5 Income Year 10 Income Total Distributions Bull $484,111 $2,098,664 $89,838 $352,797 $1,379,533 Base $333,456 $973,870 $60,496 $156,303 $766,592 Bear $255,808 $654,376 $52,290 $133,762 $661,681 These projections start with a $100,000 investment at today’s price of $36.43 per share, with every distribution reinvested through a DRIP. In the bull case, we see BTCI reach $100 per share by year ten, assuming a strong Bitcoin recovery and elevated volatility keeping premiums high. In this setup, investors will collect more than 350,000 in year 10 alone, and the portfolio will reach over 2M. The base case does not see much price appreciation, and most of the returns are coming from the options strategy at work. NAV only grows 3% annually while distributions remain flat. Even at this slow pace, the portfolio compounds to $974,000 over the years, producing over $150,000 in annual income by year 10. The bear case paints a pretty tough scenario for BTCI. This scenario assumes Bitcoin's price does not recover and the fund has to make do with a declining asset and shrinking volatility. NAV declines by 4% per year, and distributions gradually shrink, reflecting weaker price action and lower volatility. Even then, reinvestment keeps adding shares at lower prices. By year ten, the portfolio still reaches about $654,000, with annual income climbing to around $133,000. Across all three outcomes, the same engine is at work. Monthly income buys more shares, those shares produce more income, and over time, the compounding does the heavy lifting. Risks The risks with BTCI have not changed much since my last article , but now we do have some more data on BTCI. BTCI is not a hedge against bitcoin downturns. When Bitcoin falls into a prolonged decline, we will also see BTCI fall as well. The options overlay does provide income, not protection against price decline. The strategy does not hedge against Bitcoin by buying puts or shorting it in any other way; it just sells calls against the underlying. Distributions have also not been the most consistent; since launch, monthly payouts have ranged from about $0.8 to $1.50 per share. This is not exactly fixed income. Seeking Alpha These payments come from harvesting volatility, so they move with market conditions. If you plan on using BTCI's monthly income to retire, this is something you have to keep in mind. The capped upside has also not changed. If Bitcoin rallies hard, it will outperform BTCI. This trade-off is built into the strategy; you give up some upside in hard rallies for income. One new potential risk I would like to mention is the concentration of Bitcoin holders linked in crypto-linked companies. There has been a new wave of companies taking on debt via convertible bonds to buy Bitcoin. The biggest one is MicroStrategy, now holding over 800,000 Bitcoin at today's prices, valued at over 64 billion, nearly 4% of the total supply of Bitcoin. If the price declines rapidly and the pressure builds at some point, the company would have to service the debt, potentially having to sell Bitcoin. This could create a tsunami of companies and people getting margin calls and having to liquidate their bitcoin holdings. Although this new risk is important to keep note of, it is not something that keeps me up at night. This does not come from Bitcoin’s core design; it is coming from how the broader system around it is structured. Conclusion When I first wrote about BTCI, I said it solved a simple problem for Bitcoin investors who also want a monthly income. This idea remains true and, in my opinion been confirmed. The fund held up better than Bitcoin during the drawdown, kept paying monthly distributions, and grew its AUM from $556 million to over $1.1 billion in a tough market. I believe a Bitcoin recovery is inevitable, and BTCI will recover with it. QQQI has already shown us NEOS' strategy works when the underlying starts to recover. Same issuer and same core strategy, kept generating cash flow through the dips and recovered when the underlying bounced back. BTCI now sits in a similar spot. Trading near the bottom of its range, waiting for Bitcoin to bounce back. If you liked BTCI at $60, it looks even better at $36. I'm adding to my position here and rating BTCI a strong buy. For patient, income-focused investors who still believe in Bitcoin over the long run, this pullback stands out as an opportunity.

4 May 2026, 15:16

SkyAI (SKYAI) Explodes by 300% in a Week: The Next Sensation or ‘Top Scam Coin?’

Numerous leading cryptocurrencies have entered green territory over the past week, yet their gains can’t be compared to the triple-digit price explosion that SkyAI (SKYAI) experienced. The big question now is whether this is the start of a major bull run or if there’s something shady beneath the surface that could trigger a massive decline. The Big Winner The lesser-known altcoin has skyrocketed by 300% over the past seven days and currently trades at almost $0.70 (per CoinGecko’s data). Its market capitalization neared $700 million, making it the 84th-biggest cryptocurrency. SKYAI Price, Source: CoinGecko Perhaps one of the main catalysts of the whopping ascent is the recent support from Bitget. The leading crypto exchange listed the SKYAI/USDT trading pair towards the end of April, and support of that type usually has a positive price effect on the involved digital assets since it leads to increased liquidity, improved accessibility, and boosted reputation. Another potential driver could be the token’s relation to Artificial Intelligence, a trending theme that continues to attract attention and capital. SkyAI is a Web3 project that connects AI models to blockchain data across multiple networks. It uses its own Model Context Protocol (MCP) to help these systems interact with on-chain information. SKYAI is the native token of the ecosystem and enables payments for data access, staking, and governance. Some analysts believe the coin’s uptrend is far from being over. X user Crypto_Jobs, for instance, claimed that SKYAI is in “full discovery mode,” adding that its trend remains “very bullish.” They set the next possible target at over $0.75, with no clear reversal signal on the horizon. “Betting against such a trend could destroy your portfolio,” the analyst alerted. So Many Red Flags As mentioned above, the token’s rally was likely fueled by Bitget’s listing (among other reasons). However, several industry participants spotted that many wallets accumulated SKYAI right before the exchange announced its support. Loading up prior to such news suggests that some people may have had early access to information, allowing them to profit on the price increase while the rest of the market participants were left in the dark. X users Crypto with Haris and ortegas also criticized the project. The former classified SKYAI as one of the “top scam coins” alongside RAVE, UB, and LAB, and warned investors that they could suffer painful losses if they jumped on the bandwagon. The latter argued that the cryptocurrency is “another scam” because there’s no marketing, product, or revenue behind the project, only “pure manipulation.” “Remember, only market makers decide where these kinds of tokens go, so be careful when entering trades,” they warned. Meanwhile, CoinMarketCap’s data shows that almost 62% of SKYAI’s supply is controlled by the top 10 holders. This kind of setup makes the market highly vulnerable, because just a handful of people can drive the price up or down to suit their own interests. SKYAI Holders Distribution, Source: CoinMarketCap Last but not least, we will touch upon the token’s Relative Strength Index (RSI). The ratio has surged past 70, suggesting that the valuation has increased too much in a short period and could be due for a correction. The index ranges from 0 to 100, and anything under 30 is usually interpreted as bullish territory. SKYAI RSI, Source: RSI Hunter The post SkyAI (SKYAI) Explodes by 300% in a Week: The Next Sensation or ‘Top Scam Coin?’ appeared first on CryptoPotato .

4 May 2026, 15:16

Low-volume bull trap keeps Bitcoin below $80,000

Bitcoin is having trouble clearing $80,000 because the rally is not being carried by strong spot buying. Right now, prices are barely holding onto $79,000, which may look stable on the screen, but the market under it is thin. The main warning is simple: futures are doing almost all the work. Across the top six premium exchanges, derivatives now make up 87.77% of activity. That puts Bitcoin in a heavy leverage zone, where one bad flush can turn calm price action into a mess very quickly. The total notional volume is about $9.73 billion, but real spot demand has almost disappeared. Binance, which is not publicly traded, holds 87.22% of total liquidity. Deribit is also private, and it is not showing the kind of strong hedging flow that would point to bigger institutional positioning. The setup looks more like retail traders keeping Bitcoin alive with debt, margin, and hope. Derivatives traders keep Bitcoin near $79,000 as real spot demand dries up On April 30, CryptoQuant Head of Research Julio Moreno warned in his weekly report that the run toward $79,000 was powered by derivatives while spot demand was falling. Julio’s first three points matched the 87.77% futures dominance reading, which means the rally was not built on broad cash buying. The same kind of split appeared before the 2022 crash. Source: CryptoQuant. The CryptoQuant Bull Score also fell from 50 to 40, taking it below neutral and back into bearish territory. That drop came after the futures-led price action weakened the wider market picture. Apparent demand remained negative throughout the full April rise, so the price gain lacked firm support from real buyers. That is the bull trap problem. The price can climb, but the floor under it is not strong. The daily chart added another warning. After Bitcoin broke above its bullish channel, it formed a Shooting Star candle. That pattern often appears when buyers push the price up, then sellers slap it back down before the session closes. Price is now sitting on an old resistance area that turned into support, but that support has not been convincing. Real volume came in at 15.78K BTC, above the 20-day average of 13.87K BTC, yet selling pressure still won that round. Short-term pressure is also building above the market. Price momentum fell 3.5%, net buying pressure dropped 28.6%, and trading activity slipped 13.3%. Sellers are more active, while volume is weaker. That points to lower investor engagement and leaves Bitcoin stuck in a choppy area, with consolidation risk rising. Source: Glassnode. Options traders are also paying more attention to downside risk. The 25-delta skew rose 6.75%, while options open interest fell 9.98%. The volatility spread jumped 173.4%, meaning the market priced in much higher expected risk than the risk already seen in actual trading. Short-term Bitcoin holders send most exchange inflows as ETF demand weakens The Wall Street boys are not giving Bitcoin a clean rescue either. US spot Bitcoin ETF MVRV points to possible profit-taking. ETF products saw $783.4 million in net outflows, and trading volume fell 13.45%. That shows softer institutional demand and adds to the risk of sideways trading or another test lower. On-chain activity is mixed. Daily active addresses rose 6.4%, so more wallets were active. But entity-adjusted transfer volume fell 7.4%, which means larger transaction activity cooled. The LTH/STH SOPR ratio bottomed near 0.99 on April 24 and April 25, meaning long-term holders and short-term holders were barely breaking even at that point. It later climbed to 1.097, showing long-term holders were spending coins at better profit levels than short-term holders. The selling pressure is mostly coming from newer buyers. Exchange inflow data shows 97.2% of coins sent to exchanges came from short-term holder addresses. Mid-sized holders with 1 to 1,000 BTC, often called fish and sharks, drove about 58% of inflows. Smaller holders, known as shrimp and crabs, made up 18.5%. On April 24, inflows hit 35,649 BTC in one session. By May 3, that had dropped to 3,895 BTC. Short-term holders are down only 2.17% on average, and that loss has been shrinking, while long-term holders remain up 27%. New buyers have also crossed back into profit, while market sentiment returned to “Optimism / Recovery” for the first time in weeks. Don’t just read crypto news. Understand it. Subscribe to our newsletter. It's free .