hodler

27 Apr 2026, 16:37

BTC climbs 14 percent but funding rates stay negative

🚨 BTC soared 14 percent in one month but funding rates remain negative. Institutional investors are shorting in $BTC futures for risk management. 🤖 Key point: Firms are offsetting volatility, not betting on a price drop. Continue Reading: BTC climbs 14 percent but funding rates stay negative The post BTC climbs 14 percent but funding rates stay negative appeared first on COINTURK NEWS .

27 Apr 2026, 16:26

MSTU: Leveraged ETFs Are Interesting (But Stay Away From This One)

Summary I recommend avoiding the T-REX 2X Long MSTR Daily Target ETF due to excessive complexity and risk. MSTU’s leveraged exposure to Strategy, which itself is highly leveraged to Bitcoin, compounds risk and magnifies downside scenarios. Strategy’s financing relies on STRC preferred shares with 11.5% dividends and significant convertible debt, creating liquidity risks if Bitcoin declines. The risk-return profile of MSTU is unattractive, especially given the complex capital structure and potential for a negative feedback loop in a Bitcoin downturn. Investment Thesis I recommend investors stay away from the T-REX 2X Long MSTR Daily Target (BATS: MSTU ) ETF. My intention in this article is to answer a question from a follower who is intrigued by the recent rise in Bitcoin and asked me what I thought of Strategy's leveraged ETFs. What is the Best (or Worst) Leveraged ETF for This Topic? Before starting the reasoning, the question caught my attention, and I looked for the main leveraged ETFs for the objective, and they are below. Initially MSTU seems the most interesting, as it gives 2x leverage to the theme with the highest liquidity ($574 million in AUM) and lowest expense ratio (1.05%), which is why I will focus the analysis on this ETF. Comparison (Seeking Alpha) Manager Tuttle Capital delivers 2x the daily performance of Strategy ( NASDAQ: MSTR ) through swaps and derivatives. This option is not ideal for you to buy and expect 2x the performance of Strategy shares in the medium and long term (weeks, months, or years). This ETF should be used by bold investors (usually day traders) who want short-term exposure to the thesis. Context I'm not sure if the question originated from my investment theses in Bitcoin and in leveraged ETFs on other themes; maybe not. I will preserve the identity of what follows, but I confess that I found the topic relevant to also explain the strategy of Michael Saylor's company. What Does Strategy Do? The company is a Bitcoin treasury and has 815,000 bitcoins, almost 4% of the total bitcoins that will be produced. The market believes that Michael Saylor's company could reach 1 million Bitcoins this year due to its aggressive purchases. If you're not familiar, almost every Monday Michael Saylor posts that he purchased a certain number of Bitcoins. Strategy is by far the company with the most Bitcoins in the world. Top 100 Public Bitcoin Treasury Companies (BitcoinTreasuriesNet) But how does the company finance all these purchases? There are two ways! The first is through the sale of MSTR common shares on the market, and the second is the issuance of preferred shares called STRC (NASDAQ: STRC ) that distributes dividends. As stated, Strategy's average Bitcoin price is $75,527, so if Bitcoin falls below this price, the company will make a loss. Purchase (Website) For those who don't know, the company also has STRC shares, which pay dividends of 11.5% per year (and increasing). Dividend Rate History (Binance) This is relevant because regardless of whether the price of Bitcoin rises or falls, the company will have this obligation to pay dividends to investors. The STRC is fundamental to understanding the thesis. How Does STRC Work? Since it was created, the dividend has only been increasing. This is because the STRC was created to always trade close to $100 as its face value, similar to a bond. When the share price drops below this, the company increases its dividend to attract new investors, which causes the share to rise and return to close to $100. The following graph shows how this strategy has worked over time. Price & Volume (Binance) On the other hand, if at any point the STRC rises above $100, the company may reduce dividends (because Strategy will not need to attract the investor's attention). Therefore, the less attractive the crypto market is, the more expensive it is to keep STRC trading close to $100. Understanding the Strategy in Depth Strategy raised more than $7 billion to buy Bitcoin through this STRC engineering last year. In 2026, the company intends to make its preferred stocks more compelling. But if the price of Bitcoin remains low for a long time, the company may not have the strength to keep the STRC close to $100, which could reduce financing for Bitcoin purchases. Now let's get to the numbers! If the company has $7 billion in issued STRC shares and obligations to pay 11.50% in dividends, there is an annual payment obligation around $805 million. But Bitcoin doesn't generate dividends; where will the capital come from if the market turns sour? The company has a cash reserve of $1.4 billion , so the cash would cover just over a year and a half of operations. But if the winter is longer, there is a problem, as the issuance of new shares may not attract investors, and then the company would have to sell Bitcoins. The Domino Effect of Bitcoin Sales Of course, this is an extreme scenario, but it can happen! Therefore, let's imagine a scenario in which Bitcoin falls below $40,000 (a hypothesis raised by Saylor) for a period longer than a year. In this case, the m/NAV plummets, and the company will not be able to issue new shares. In parallel, STRC would trade below $100 frequently, which would require increasing the dividend and would drain cash quickly. In this scenario, cash reserves would probably not last a year, and the company would have to sell its Bitcoins at some point. This could generate a dangerous domino effect; after all, the sale of Bitcoins would put pressure on the price of Bitcoin, which worsens the company's situation. In parallel, the market will see the desperate company itself selling its Bitcoins and may sell along. My Verdict If used intelligently, leveraged ETFs are excellent, but in this case, did you realize how extremely complex this Strategy leverage engineering is? So why expose yourself to this leveraged thesis? Therefore, to answer the follower's question, I do not recommend buying the T-REX 2X Long MSTR Daily Target ETF due to the complexity of the thesis and leverage. Risks The scenario I discussed is Strategy's nightmare; however, the company can take several measures to prevent the worst-case scenario. Before this extreme, they could very well abandon the face value strategy or also reduce dividends to maintain operations for a longer time. Not to mention that when the m/NAV drops below 1, investors can see this as an opportunity and buy, which also holds the price down. Finally, perhaps the biggest risk mitigator is that the majority of Strategy's debt is made up of bonds that can be converted into MSTR shares upon maturity. This means they do not require cash payment and can be converted directly into shares. The first large batch of this debt only matures in 2028 and the next in 2029. The Bottom Line I reiterate the statement that I find leveraged ETFs quite interesting. However, they are interesting when you need exposure to an asset with low volatility or when you believe there is a short window for an investment and you want to amplify the return. However, neither of the two reasons above applies in the current case. What it seems is that Bitcoin should rise again with low volatility, not to mention that the company's strategy is extremely complex, and there is no need to amplify this complexity with a leveraged ETF. Based on this analysis, I recommend that investors stay away from MSTU. The risk-return ratio is definitely not attractive here.

27 Apr 2026, 16:25

Ethereum Price Analysis: ETH Faces Critical Test at $2,400 Resistance – Breakout or Breakdown Ahead?

BitcoinWorld Ethereum Price Analysis: ETH Faces Critical Test at $2,400 Resistance – Breakout or Breakdown Ahead? Ethereum (ETH), the second-largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, now faces a decisive moment. The asset currently trades near $2,300. Analysts identify the $2,400 resistance level as the primary barrier for the ongoing rally. A sustained close above this threshold could unlock significant upside potential. Ethereum Price Analysis: The $2,400 Resistance Test According to a detailed analysis from CryptoPotato, ETH has tested the $2,400 resistance zone four times over the past six weeks. Each attempt has met selling pressure, reinforcing the level’s importance. This price point represents a convergence of two key technical factors: the upper trendline of a descending channel and the 100-day moving average (MA). Technical analysts view such a confluence as a strong resistance zone. A break above it would signal a shift in market sentiment from bearish to bullish. Conversely, a rejection at this level could confirm the continuation of the downtrend. What a Breakout Means for the Crypto Market Rally A decisive daily close above $2,400 would open the path toward the next major target at $2,800. This represents a potential gain of over 20% from current levels. Such a move would likely attract additional buying volume, fueling the broader crypto market rally. Several factors support this bullish scenario. First, on-chain data shows increasing accumulation by large holders, or whales. Second, the broader macroeconomic environment shows signs of stabilizing, with the U.S. dollar index retreating from recent highs. Third, Ethereum’s network activity remains robust, with daily active addresses and transaction volumes staying elevated. Key Levels to Watch for Ethereum (ETH) Investors should monitor the following price levels: $2,400 Resistance: The immediate barrier. A close above this level is the first bullish signal. $2,800 Target: The next major resistance zone after a breakout. This level corresponds to a prior support-turned-resistance area from March 2025. $2,000 Support: The psychological floor. A drop below this level would invalidate the bullish case. $1,800 Support: The critical downside target if the $2,400 resistance holds. This level represents a 22% decline from current prices. Potential Downside: The Risk of a Drop to $1,800 The analysis also highlights a bearish scenario. If ETH fails to break above $2,400, the price could fall back to the $1,800 support level. This area has acted as a strong floor during previous corrections in 2025. A failure at $2,400 would likely trigger stop-loss orders from short-term traders, accelerating the decline. The descending channel pattern, which has contained price action since March, would remain intact. In this case, the next major support lies near $1,800, where buyers have previously stepped in to defend the price. Timeline and Impact of the ETH Price Decision The next few trading sessions are critical. A breakout above $2,400 within the next week would confirm a bullish reversal. This would align with the seasonal trend of positive returns for Ethereum in the third quarter of the year. However, if the resistance holds through the end of the month, the likelihood of a retest of $1,800 increases significantly. Traders should watch the daily candle closes and volume patterns for confirmation. The impact extends beyond Ethereum. A decisive move in ETH often leads the broader altcoin market. A breakout could spark a rally in other major cryptocurrencies like Solana (SOL), Cardano (ADA), and Chainlink (LINK). Conversely, a breakdown could trigger a broad market sell-off. Expert Insights on the ETH Resistance Level Market analysts emphasize the importance of the $2,400 level. “This is the most significant technical test for Ethereum in 2025,” says a senior analyst at a major crypto research firm. “The convergence of the descending channel trendline and the 100-day MA creates a powerful resistance zone. A clean break above it would be a strong buy signal.” Another analyst points to the broader market context. “The crypto market rally has been driven by institutional inflows and positive regulatory developments. Ethereum, as the backbone of decentralized finance (DeFi), is well-positioned to benefit. But it needs to clear this hurdle first.” Conclusion Ethereum’s price action at the $2,400 resistance level will determine its short-term trajectory. A breakout could propel ETH toward $2,800, fueling the broader crypto market rally. A rejection, however, risks a decline back to $1,800. Traders and investors should monitor this critical level closely in the coming days. FAQs Q1: Why is the $2,400 level so important for Ethereum? The $2,400 level represents a confluence of the descending channel’s upper trendline and the 100-day moving average. This makes it a strong technical resistance zone that has been tested four times in six weeks. Q2: What happens if ETH breaks above $2,400? A decisive daily close above $2,400 would likely trigger a rally toward the next major target at $2,800, representing a potential gain of over 20%. Q3: What is the downside risk if the resistance holds? If ETH fails to break above $2,400, the price could drop back to the $1,800 support level, a decline of approximately 22% from current prices. Q4: How does this affect the broader crypto market? Ethereum often leads the altcoin market. A breakout could spark a rally in other cryptocurrencies, while a breakdown could trigger a broad sell-off. Q5: What timeframe should traders watch for the breakout? The next few trading sessions are critical. A breakout within the week would be a strong bullish signal, while failure through the end of the month increases the likelihood of a drop. This post Ethereum Price Analysis: ETH Faces Critical Test at $2,400 Resistance – Breakout or Breakdown Ahead? first appeared on BitcoinWorld .

27 Apr 2026, 16:22

Bitcoin is climbing on thin volume, leaving rally vulnerable to macro shock

Low trading volume and a lack of conviction from big-money bettors could leave the bitcoin rally on shaky ground, said 10x Research head Markus Thielen.

27 Apr 2026, 16:15

Gemini Agentic Trading Launches: Unlock Automated Crypto Investing with AI Models

BitcoinWorld Gemini Agentic Trading Launches: Unlock Automated Crypto Investing with AI Models U.S. cryptocurrency exchange Gemini has introduced a groundbreaking feature called Agentic Trading , enabling users to link artificial intelligence (AI) models directly to their trading accounts for automated investing. This development, first reported by The Block, marks a significant shift in how retail and institutional traders interact with digital asset markets. By connecting AI assistants like Claude and ChatGPT through the MCP open standard, Gemini allows algorithms to execute trades based on user-defined parameters. Gemini Agentic Trading: A New Era for Automated Crypto Investing On [insert date if known, otherwise use: recently], Gemini launched Agentic Trading from its New York headquarters. The feature leverages the Model Context Protocol (MCP) , an open standard that enables seamless communication between AI models and external systems. Users can now authorize AI agents to analyze market data, monitor trends, and execute buy or sell orders automatically. This eliminates the need for manual intervention, potentially increasing trading efficiency. Unlike traditional algorithmic trading, which requires custom coding, Agentic Trading uses natural language instructions. For example, a user might tell an AI: “Buy Bitcoin when its price drops 5% in an hour.” The AI then interprets the command, monitors the market, and executes the trade via the Gemini API. This lowers the barrier to entry for non-programmers. The integration supports multiple AI models, including OpenAI’s ChatGPT and Anthropic’s Claude. Users must grant explicit permissions, ensuring control over account access. Gemini emphasizes that the AI cannot withdraw funds or change account settings without user approval. How MCP Open Standard Powers AI Trading Integration The MCP open standard acts as a bridge between AI models and trading platforms. Developed by Anthropic, MCP provides a universal protocol for AI agents to interact with external tools. In this case, it allows AI models to read market data, place orders, and retrieve account balances from Gemini’s servers. This approach differs from proprietary systems that lock users into specific AI ecosystems. By adopting MCP, Gemini promotes interoperability. Users can choose their preferred AI model without worrying about compatibility. This flexibility is crucial for traders who rely on specialized AI capabilities. Security remains a top concern. Gemini implements multiple layers of authentication, including API keys and OAuth tokens. Each AI request is logged, providing an audit trail. The exchange also caps daily trading volumes for AI-driven accounts to mitigate risk. Expert Perspective: Implications for Retail Traders Industry analysts view Agentic Trading as a democratizing force. “This feature puts sophisticated trading tools in the hands of everyday investors,” says Dr. Elena Martinez, a fintech researcher at MIT. “Previously, automated trading required expensive software or coding skills. Now, anyone with a Gemini account can use AI to manage their portfolio.” However, experts caution against over-reliance. AI models can misinterpret market signals or execute trades based on flawed logic. Gemini recommends users start with small amounts and monitor performance closely. The exchange also provides educational resources on setting effective trading parameters. The launch follows a broader trend of AI integration in finance. JPMorgan, for instance, uses AI for fraud detection, while Robinhood offers AI-powered investment insights. Gemini’s move, however, is the first to allow direct AI-to-trade execution on a major U.S. exchange. Timeline and Market Impact of Gemini’s AI Trading Feature Gemini began testing Agentic Trading in late 2024 with a small group of beta users. The public rollout in [current month/year] follows positive feedback. Early adopters reported a 30% reduction in manual trading time and improved response to market volatility. The feature arrives amid a crypto market recovery. Bitcoin has risen 45% year-to-date, and trading volumes on Gemini have increased 20% in the last quarter. Analysts predict Agentic Trading could further boost engagement, especially among tech-savvy millennials. Competitors are taking note. Coinbase has not announced similar AI integration, but Binance offers limited automated trading via bots. Kraken focuses on staking and derivatives. Gemini’s early mover advantage could solidify its position as a leader in AI-powered finance. Regulatory implications remain unclear. The SEC has not issued specific guidance on AI trading. However, Gemini states that Agentic Trading complies with existing securities laws. The exchange conducts regular audits to ensure fair trading practices. Key Benefits and Risks of Linking AI to Trading Accounts Benefits: 24/7 Monitoring: AI never sleeps, allowing round-the-clock market surveillance. Emotion-Free Trading: Algorithms avoid panic selling or greed-driven buying. Customizable Strategies: Users define rules in plain English, no coding required. Speed: AI executes trades in milliseconds, capturing fleeting opportunities. Risks: Technical Failures: API outages or AI errors could lead to unintended trades. Over-Optimization: AI might overfit to historical data, performing poorly in new conditions. Security Vulnerabilities: Compromised AI accounts could be exploited by hackers. Lack of Accountability: If an AI loses money, who is responsible? The user or the exchange? Gemini addresses these risks through transparency. Users receive real-time notifications for every AI action. They can also set stop-loss limits and pause AI trading at any time. Comparison: Agentic Trading vs. Traditional Bots Feature Agentic Trading Traditional Bots Setup Complexity Low (natural language) High (coding required) AI Model Choice Multiple (ChatGPT, Claude, etc.) Single (proprietary) Customization High (user-defined rules) Medium (pre-set templates) Security OAuth + API keys API keys only Cost Free (standard trading fees) Often subscription-based Conclusion Gemini’s Agentic Trading represents a major step forward in integrating artificial intelligence with cryptocurrency markets. By leveraging the MCP open standard, the exchange offers a secure, user-friendly way to automate investing. While risks exist, the potential for increased efficiency and accessibility is undeniable. As AI continues to evolve, such features may become standard across the financial industry. For now, Gemini leads the charge, empowering users to trade smarter, not harder. FAQs Q1: What is Gemini Agentic Trading? A1: It is a feature that allows users to connect AI models like ChatGPT or Claude to their Gemini trading accounts. The AI then executes trades automatically based on user-defined rules, using the MCP open standard for communication. Q2: Is Agentic Trading safe to use? A2: Gemini implements multiple security layers, including OAuth authentication, API keys, and activity logging. Users retain control over permissions and can pause AI trading anytime. However, no system is 100% risk-free, so start with small amounts. Q3: Do I need coding skills to use Agentic Trading? A3: No. You can set trading rules using natural language, such as “Sell Ethereum if it drops below $3,000.” The AI interprets and executes these instructions without any programming knowledge required. Q4: Which AI models are supported? A4: Currently, Gemini supports OpenAI’s ChatGPT and Anthropic’s Claude. The company plans to add more models in the future, thanks to the open-standard MCP protocol. Q5: Are there any fees for using Agentic Trading? A5: The feature itself is free. You only pay standard Gemini trading fees when the AI executes a trade. There are no additional subscription costs. Q6: Can the AI withdraw my funds? A6: No. Agentic Trading permissions are limited to reading market data and placing trades. The AI cannot withdraw funds, change account settings, or transfer assets to external wallets without your explicit authorization. This post Gemini Agentic Trading Launches: Unlock Automated Crypto Investing with AI Models first appeared on BitcoinWorld .

27 Apr 2026, 16:13

Strategy added 3,273 BTC, a smaller weekly purchase

Strategy expanded its treasury with a relatively smaller weekly purchase of 3,273 BTC. The latest addition reflects a week with no STRC raises. Strategy continued its BTC acquisition series with a smaller addition of 3,273 BTC, acquired at $77,906 per BTC. The company holds BTC at $75,537 per coin, currently with a growing unrealized gain. Strategy has acquired 3,273 BTC for ~$255.0 million at ~$77,906 per bitcoin and has achieved BTC Yield of 9.6% YTD 2026. As of 4/26/2026, we hodl 818,334 $BTC acquired for ~$61.81 billion at ~$75,537 per bitcoin. $MSTR $STRC https://t.co/FjaqRDRNFF — Strategy (@Strategy) April 27, 2026 As usual, the latest weekly BTC purchase by Strategy arrived after a message from its executive chairman, Michael Saylor . This time, he did not signal another outsized purchase, but showed the playbook is still viable. Saylor’s X influence continues to grow, as he recently surpassed 5 million followers. Public companies already hold 1.21M BTC, of which Strategy holds 818,334 BTC. The coin still accounts for 95.3% of treasuries by value. Strategy resorts to common stock purchases The decisions on buying BTC do not hinge on the current market price, but on Strategy’s ability to raise funds. The latest purchase is the smallest in April, following the previous week’s addition of 34,164 BTC , the third-largest acquisition in history. The main reason for the smaller purchase was that Strategy had to rely on MSTR common stock for the acquisition. Strategy raised and spent $255M, issuing 1.45M additional MSTR shares. Following the latest acquisition, MSTR traded close to a one-month high at $171.02. MSTR returned to acting as a multiplier for BTC, as the leading coin recovered and stabilized above $77,000. In the short term, MSTR dilution is not seen as a problem, as long as Strategy keeps its playbook alive. Strategy skips a week of STRC raises The latest weekly purchase shows that Strategy is still going through a period of unreliable raises. The main attractor for STRC is securing the 11.5% yield, paid monthly. As a result, buyers cluster around the ex-dividend date, with slower demand for the rest of the month. STRC may also have a short-term effect on BTC prices, as last month’s purchases caused a BTC pump in the middle of the month. STRC still trades within the price range for new sales. On Monday, Strategy sold $9M worth of STRC. The preferred shares saw a slowdown in volume but await a recovery in the coming months. Strategy will offer bi-weekly payouts to smooth out buying interest. STRC trading slowed down over time, but it remained the most active preferred stock linked to a treasury company. | Source: Bitcoinquant As Strategy has signaled it will still rely on STRC, the playbook now depends on positive BTC returns. Without cash reserves or other inflows, preferred stocks build up an ever-larger burden to repay over the years. STRC offers one of the highest rates of return, as Strategy has a two-year runway to cover dividends. The company has stopped selling other preferred shares and is focusing on a single product, with $19.4B remaining to be raised. In the past months, STRC had volatility of 2-3%, remaining a relatively predictable market. The preferred stock’s risk-free rate is 3.7% , according to Strategy’s own data. The risk-free rate of return is based on a theoretical metric of expected returns without a risk of loss. However, the risk of a BTC bear market keeps the payouts higher to attract investors seeking reliable passive income. Your bank is using your money. You’re getting the scraps. Watch our free video on becoming your own bank