Invest ideasNews
25 Mar 2026, 06:00
Bitcoin Deeply Undervalued? ‘Yardstick’ Metric Hits Off-The-Chart Lows
Charles Edwards has highlighted how the Bitcoin Yardstick valuation indicator is “off the chart” in deep value at the moment. Bitcoin Yardstick Is Deep Inside Undervalued Zone In a new post on X, Capriole Investments founder Charles Edwards has talked about the latest trend in the Bitcoin Yardstick. The “Yardstick” is a valuation tool for the cryptocurrency devised by Edwards that is similar to a Price-to-Earnings (PE) Ratio, but in place of “earnings,” the metric instead uses the energy work done to secure the BTC network. The stand in for this work done is the “ Hashrate ,” a measure of the total amount of computing power connected to the Bitcoin blockchain by miners as a whole. The Yardstick takes the ratio between the market cap and this metric to represent BTC’s value. Now, here is the chart shared by Edwards that shows how the Bitcoin Yardstick has changed over the last few years: As displayed in the above graph, the Bitcoin Yardstick has plummeted over the last few months as the cryptocurrency’s price has gone through a bearish shift. This suggests that the asset’s value has dropped relative to the network Hashrate. The indicator has recently been floating in the zone below -1 standard deviation (SD) from the mean, which is a region that the analyst’s model describes as pertaining to a “cheap value.” From the chart, it’s visible that the 2022 bear market also saw the Yardstick plummet into this region, but the recent lows in the metric have actually been lower than any level from back then. “Bitcoin yardstick is literally off the chart in deep value,” noted Edwards. While the cryptocurrency has been severely undervalued from the perspective of the indicator, it may not necessarily mean a bottom is here. In the previous bear market, the indicator was in the undervalued region for months before a turnaround appeared. An interesting feature in the graph is that the Yardstick saw a sudden spike to a normal-value zone in the final week of January. The BTC price was moving sideways while this happened, so the culprit must have been the Hashrate. And indeed, this spike coincided with a major snow storm in the United States that disrupted the power grid, forcing miners to curtail their electricity usage. The resulting drop in the Hashrate was very significant, but it lasted only temporarily. Though, before the computing power even returned, the Yardstick plummeted anyway, owing to the sharp price crash that Bitcoin saw to kick off February. BTC Price Bitcoin has returned to the $71,000 level following its quick rebound over the past day.
25 Mar 2026, 06:00
Dogecoin Supply Barrier: This Level Holds Cost Basis Of 28 Billion DOGE
A cryptocurrency analyst has pointed out how a Dogecoin price level holds the cost basis of a notable amount of the memecoin, potentially making it a major support line. Dogecoin Traders Last Moved 28 Billion Tokens At $0.074 In a new post on X, analyst Ali Martinez has talked about the latest UTXO Realized Price Distribution (URPD) of Dogecoin. This indicator tells us about the amount of the asset that was last purchased at the various levels visited by it in its history. Related Reading: Ethereum Rebounds 6%, But Coinbase Demand Remains Weak Below is the chart for the metric shared by Martinez. As displayed in the graph, Dogecoin is currently trading around levels where little supply last changed hands. The nearest major cost basis center lies at $0.074, where 28 billion tokens of the cryptocurrency last became involved in transactions. In recent months, the memecoin has been in a downtrend and if the bearish momentum continues, it’s possible that it could end up retesting this huge supply zone. Currently, these investors are in a state of net unrealized profit, but when the retest will occur, they will drop back to their break even. It’s hard to say for sure how these holders would react to their cost basis being threatened, but often, traders try to protect their break-even level by participating in more accumulation. Though, this is usually the case when the market mood is positive. Given the sheer scale of the $0.074 supply barrier, however, any buying reaction could be of a significant degree. This is why the analyst has called it “one of the most important support zones” for Dogecoin. In some other news, DOGE has recently appeared to be following a Descending Triangle pattern, as Martinez has highlighted in another X post. The “Descending Triangle” forms whenever an asset observes consolidation between two converging trendlines, with a chief feature being that the lower of these lines is parallel to the time-axis. As is visible in the below chart, Dogecoin has been moving down this pattern on the 4-hour timeframe. Earlier this month, the coin retested the resistance level of the channel, but it ended up finding rejection. Currently, DOGE is trading about midway between the upper and lower levels, so it’s uncertain which level it might end up visiting next. Related Reading: Bitcoin HODLers Quietly Add 332,000 BTC Amid Market Chaos In the scenario that an escape from the triangle occurs during the next retest, it’s possible that Dogecoin could see a sustained move in the direction of the breakout. Based on the height of the Descending Triangle, Martinez has noted that a 29% move could be on the horizon for the asset. DOGE Price At the time of writing, Dogecoin is floating around $0.095, down over 7% in the last seven days. Featured image from Kanchanara at Unsplash.com, chart from TradingView.com
25 Mar 2026, 06:00
AUD/JPY Price Forecast: Resilient Pair Softens Below 111.00 Amidst Prevailing Bullish Momentum
BitcoinWorld AUD/JPY Price Forecast: Resilient Pair Softens Below 111.00 Amidst Prevailing Bullish Momentum The AUD/JPY currency pair demonstrates notable resilience in early 2025 trading sessions, currently softening below the psychological 111.00 threshold while maintaining an underlying bullish technical structure that continues to attract market attention. This AUD/JPY price forecast examines the complex interplay between Australian economic fundamentals and Japanese monetary policy developments that shape this important Asia-Pacific currency cross. Market participants globally monitor this pair closely as it reflects both commodity currency dynamics and safe-haven flows, creating unique trading opportunities throughout volatile periods. AUD/JPY Technical Analysis and Current Price Action Technical analysts observe the AUD/JPY pair trading within a defined range between 110.50 and 111.50 during recent sessions. The currency cross currently tests support levels following its retreat from weekly highs above 111.20. Importantly, the 50-day exponential moving average provides dynamic support around 110.75, while the 200-day moving average establishes a stronger foundation near 109.80. Furthermore, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) registers at 58, indicating moderate bullish momentum without reaching overbought conditions. Additionally, trading volume patterns show increased activity during Asian and European sessions, reflecting the pair’s significance across multiple time zones. Chart patterns reveal several critical observations for traders. First, the pair maintains higher lows since the December 2024 reversal from 108.50. Second, resistance near 111.50 represents the October 2024 peak that requires significant momentum to breach. Third, Fibonacci retracement levels from the 2024 swing high to low provide additional context. The 61.8% retracement level aligns with current resistance, creating a confluence zone that demands attention. Consequently, technical signals suggest consolidation before potential directional movement. Key Technical Levels for AUD/JPY Market technicians identify several crucial price zones for the Australian dollar against Japanese yen. Immediate resistance emerges at 111.20, followed by stronger barriers at 111.50 and 112.00. Support levels materialize at 110.50, 110.00, and critically at 109.50. The Ichimoku Cloud shows price action above the cloud formation, traditionally indicating bullish bias. However, the Chikou Span’s position requires monitoring for potential bearish divergence signals. Bollinger Bands currently expand slightly, suggesting increasing volatility that may precede significant price movements in coming sessions. Fundamental Drivers Impacting the Currency Pair Multiple fundamental factors influence AUD/JPY price dynamics as global markets navigate 2025 economic conditions. The Reserve Bank of Australia maintains a cautiously hawkish stance amid persistent services inflation, supporting Australian dollar strength. Meanwhile, the Bank of Japan continues its gradual normalization path, creating yen volatility that directly affects this currency cross. Commodity prices, particularly iron ore and coal exports, provide underlying support for the Australian dollar. China’s economic recovery pace significantly impacts Australian export projections, creating indirect pressure on AUD valuation. Risk sentiment represents another crucial driver for this currency pair. During risk-on periods, traders typically favor the Australian dollar as a growth-linked currency. Conversely, risk-off environments strengthen the Japanese yen’s safe-haven appeal. Global equity performance, particularly in Asian markets, correlates strongly with AUD/JPY movements. Geopolitical developments in the Asia-Pacific region also generate notable impacts, as both currencies respond to regional stability concerns. Central bank policy divergence remains the primary macro theme, with interest rate differentials continuing to favor Australian yields. Economic Calendar Events to Monitor Several upcoming economic releases warrant attention for AUD/JPY traders. Australian employment data for January 2025 will provide crucial labor market insights. Japanese inflation figures, particularly the core CPI excluding fresh food, may influence Bank of Japan policy expectations. Additionally, China’s PMI manufacturing data directly affects Australian dollar sentiment through trade linkage channels. Global risk events, including Federal Reserve communications and geopolitical developments, create secondary impacts through broader market sentiment channels. Historical Context and Seasonal Patterns The AUD/JPY pair exhibits identifiable seasonal tendencies that inform current analysis. Historically, the first quarter demonstrates strength for commodity currencies against the yen, supported by Chinese industrial activity following Lunar New Year celebrations. However, Japanese fiscal year-end flows in March typically generate yen demand that pressures the cross lower. The 2024 trading range between 108.50 and 112.50 establishes important context for current price action. Volatility patterns show increased activity during Asian session overlaps, particularly during Australian and Japanese economic releases. Longer-term charts reveal significant structural developments. The pair recovered substantially from 2023 lows near 85.00, reflecting both Australian economic resilience and shifting Japanese monetary policy. Correlation analysis indicates strengthening relationship with copper prices and weakening correlation with traditional risk proxies like the S&P 500. This evolution suggests changing market perceptions of both currencies’ fundamental drivers. Institutional positioning data reveals net long Australian dollar positions against the yen, though at reduced levels compared to 2024 peaks. Expert Analysis and Market Sentiment Financial institutions provide mixed but generally constructive outlooks for AUD/JPY. Major bank research departments highlight the pair’s attractive carry characteristics amid relatively stable volatility. However, concerns regarding China’s property sector and Japanese intervention risks create balanced risk assessments. Technical analysts note the importance of the 109.50 support level, which represents both the 200-day moving average and psychological round number. A sustained break below this level would challenge the prevailing bullish narrative, potentially targeting 108.00 support. Options market pricing reveals interesting sentiment indicators. Risk reversals show modest premium for AUD calls over puts, suggesting slightly bullish bias among sophisticated participants. Implied volatility remains elevated compared to historical averages, reflecting uncertainty around central bank policies. The volatility smile indicates particular concern about downside moves, potentially related to unexpected Bank of Japan policy shifts. These derivatives market signals complement spot price analysis for comprehensive market assessment. Risk Factors and Alternative Scenarios Several risk scenarios could alter the AUD/JPY outlook significantly. Accelerated Bank of Japan tightening represents the primary downside risk, potentially strengthening the yen across all pairs. Conversely, stronger-than-expected Australian inflation might force more aggressive RBA action, supporting Australian dollar appreciation. Geopolitical tensions in the Asia-Pacific region typically benefit the Japanese yen’s safe-haven status, creating headwinds for the pair. Commodity price volatility, particularly in iron ore markets, introduces additional uncertainty for Australian dollar valuation. Technical breakdown scenarios warrant consideration despite the prevailing bullish structure. A sustained break below 109.50 would invalidate the higher lows pattern, potentially targeting 108.00 support. Such a move would likely coincide with broader risk-off sentiment and Japanese yen strength across multiple currency pairs. Alternatively, a decisive break above 112.00 resistance would confirm bullish momentum continuation, potentially targeting 113.50 based on measured move projections from recent consolidation patterns. Conclusion The AUD/JPY price forecast acknowledges current softening below 111.00 while recognizing the underlying bullish technical structure that prevails. This currency pair represents a compelling study in contrasting monetary policies and economic fundamentals. Traders should monitor key technical levels at 110.50 support and 111.50 resistance for directional clues. Fundamental developments, particularly from the Bank of Japan and Reserve Bank of Australia, will ultimately determine medium-term trajectory. The AUD/JPY outlook remains cautiously constructive, supported by yield differentials and commodity tailwinds, though sensitive to risk sentiment shifts and regional developments. FAQs Q1: What does AUD/JPY softening below 111.00 indicate? The AUD/JPY pair softening below 111.00 suggests near-term profit-taking or mild dollar yen strength, but doesn’t necessarily invalidate the broader bullish structure if key support levels hold. Q2: Why is AUD/JPY considered a risk-sensitive currency pair? AUD/JPY reflects risk sentiment because the Australian dollar often strengthens during risk-on periods while the Japanese yen typically appreciates during risk-off environments, creating amplified movements. Q3: What are the main fundamental drivers for AUD/JPY? Primary drivers include interest rate differentials between Australia and Japan, commodity prices (especially iron ore), Chinese economic data, and broader risk sentiment in global markets. Q4: How does Bank of Japan policy affect AUD/JPY? Bank of Japan policy normalization tends to strengthen the yen, creating downward pressure on AUD/JPY, while maintained accommodative policies typically support the pair’s upward movement. Q5: What technical levels are most important for AUD/JPY traders? Key levels include 111.50 resistance, 110.50 immediate support, and the critical 109.50 level representing the 200-day moving average and major psychological support. This post AUD/JPY Price Forecast: Resilient Pair Softens Below 111.00 Amidst Prevailing Bullish Momentum first appeared on BitcoinWorld .
25 Mar 2026, 05:50
Bitcoin exchange outflows show ‘genuine accumulation by investors’: Analyst
Ongoing accumulation of Bitcoin is likely one of the factors behind why the cryptocurrency is trading in a tight range, say crypto analysts.
25 Mar 2026, 05:45
Cardano ADA Poised for Explosive Rebound Amid Record Short Positions and Deep Holder Losses
BitcoinWorld Cardano ADA Poised for Explosive Rebound Amid Record Short Positions and Deep Holder Losses Global cryptocurrency markets are closely watching Cardano (ADA) as technical indicators suggest the digital asset may be positioned for a significant rebound. According to recent market data analyzed by CoinDesk, ADA is exhibiting conditions strikingly similar to those that preceded a historical rally exceeding 300%. The convergence of record short positions and substantial holder losses creates a potentially volatile setup for the eighth-largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization. Cardano ADA Faces Critical Juncture with Negative MVRV Ratio The 365-day Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio for Cardano currently stands at -43%, indicating substantial losses for investors who purchased ADA within the past year. This metric, which compares the current market value of all circulating ADA to the aggregate cost basis of all coins last moved, serves as a crucial indicator of market sentiment and potential turning points. Historically, deeply negative MVRV readings have often preceded significant price recoveries across various cryptocurrency assets. Market analysts frequently monitor the MVRV ratio because it provides insight into the average profit or loss position of market participants. When the ratio falls significantly below zero, as it currently does for ADA, it typically suggests that many holders are experiencing paper losses. This situation can create selling exhaustion, potentially setting the stage for a reversal. Furthermore, the current -43% reading represents one of the most substantial negative deviations in Cardano’s recent history. Historical Context of ADA’s MVRV Movements Cardano has experienced similar MVRV conditions during previous market cycles. In late 2020, for instance, ADA’s MVRV ratio dipped to comparable negative territory before the asset embarked on a multi-month rally that saw gains exceeding 1,500%. While past performance never guarantees future results, the historical pattern provides important context for current market conditions. Analysts emphasize that extreme readings in either direction often precede mean reversion events in financial markets. Record Short Positions Signal Potential for ADA Short Squeeze Simultaneously, the weekly average funding rate for ADA perpetual contracts on Binance has dropped to its lowest level since June 2023. This metric reflects the cost to hold leveraged positions and serves as a reliable indicator of market positioning. The current depressed funding rate signals the most significant buildup of short positions against ADA in approximately three years, creating what technical analysts describe as a “crowded trade.” When short positions become excessively concentrated, they create conditions ripe for a short squeeze. This phenomenon occurs when the price begins to rise, forcing traders with short positions to buy back ADA to cover their trades, thereby creating additional upward pressure on the price. The potential for such a squeeze adds a layer of technical complexity to ADA’s current market setup. Market mechanics suggest that even modest buying pressure could trigger disproportionate upward movement under these conditions. Understanding Funding Rate Dynamics The funding rate mechanism in perpetual futures contracts serves to tether contract prices to spot market prices. When this rate becomes significantly negative, as it currently is for ADA, it indicates that traders are paying to maintain short positions. This situation typically occurs when the majority of leveraged traders anticipate further price declines. However, market history demonstrates that extreme positioning often precedes sharp reversals, as the market exhausts one directional bias. Technical Analysis Reveals Similarities to Past ADA Rally Technical analysts are drawing parallels between current market structure and conditions that preceded ADA’s 2021 rally. Several key indicators beyond the MVRV ratio and funding rates show similarities, including: Relative Strength Index (RSI) positioning in oversold territory on weekly charts Volume profile analysis showing accumulation at current price levels On-chain activity metrics indicating sustained network usage despite price weakness Exchange netflow data suggesting decreasing selling pressure These technical factors, when combined with the fundamental developments within the Cardano ecosystem, create a multifaceted picture of potential recovery. The Cardano network continues to demonstrate robust development activity, with regular protocol upgrades and expanding decentralized application deployment. This fundamental strength provides underlying support that may not be fully reflected in current price action. Network Fundamentals Provide Underlying Support Despite price weakness, the Cardano blockchain maintains strong fundamental metrics. The network has processed over 90 million transactions since its inception and currently supports more than 150 projects building on its platform. Additionally, Cardano’s unique proof-of-stake consensus mechanism, Ouroboros, continues to operate with high efficiency and security. These fundamental strengths provide a foundation that may support price recovery when combined with favorable technical conditions. Market Psychology and Sentiment Indicators Current market sentiment toward ADA reflects the extreme positioning indicated by technical metrics. Social media analysis shows declining discussion volume and generally negative sentiment, which contrarian investors often interpret as a potential bottoming signal. Furthermore, derivatives market data reveals that put option premiums have expanded relative to call options, indicating heightened demand for downside protection. This combination of technical indicators and sentiment extremes creates what experienced traders describe as a “maximum pain” setup. When multiple indicators reach extremes simultaneously, the probability of a reversal often increases. However, market participants should note that timing such reversals remains exceptionally challenging, and conditions can persist longer than anticipated. Risk Factors and Considerations While the setup appears promising for ADA bulls, several risk factors warrant consideration. Broader cryptocurrency market conditions remain influenced by macroeconomic factors including interest rate policies and regulatory developments. Additionally, the crowded short trade could unwind gradually rather than through a dramatic squeeze event. Market participants should also monitor Bitcoin’s dominance, as major moves in the leading cryptocurrency often influence altcoin markets including Cardano. Comparative Analysis with Other Cryptocurrency Assets ADA’s current technical setup shows both similarities and differences compared to other major cryptocurrencies. The following table illustrates key metrics across several assets: Asset 30-Day MVRV Funding Rate RSI (Weekly) Cardano (ADA) -43% Strongly Negative 38 Ethereum (ETH) -28% Slightly Negative 42 Solana (SOL) -19% Neutral 45 Polkadot (DOT) -37% Negative 40 This comparative analysis reveals that ADA exhibits some of the most extreme readings among major cryptocurrencies, particularly regarding the MVRV ratio. This relative extremity may suggest greater potential for mean reversion, though it also indicates deeper current losses for recent purchasers. Conclusion Cardano ADA presents a compelling technical setup as record short positions converge with deeply negative holder profitability metrics. The -43% MVRV ratio and depressed funding rates create conditions reminiscent of past reversal points, including the period preceding ADA’s historical 300% rally. While market dynamics remain complex and influenced by numerous external factors, the convergence of these technical indicators suggests increased potential for a significant Cardano rebound. Market participants will monitor whether current conditions precipitate the anticipated short squeeze or whether the extreme positioning persists. The coming weeks will provide crucial data points regarding ADA’s ability to capitalize on this technical setup and initiate a sustainable recovery phase. FAQs Q1: What does the -43% MVRV ratio mean for Cardano ADA? The -43% 365-day MVRV ratio indicates that investors who purchased ADA within the past year are currently sitting on average losses of 43%. This metric suggests widespread selling exhaustion and often precedes market reversals when reaching extreme levels. Q2: How does a short squeeze potentially affect ADA’s price? A short squeeze occurs when traders who have bet against ADA (shorted it) are forced to buy back their positions as the price rises. This buying pressure can accelerate upward price movement, potentially creating a rapid and significant rally. Q3: What time frame does the 365-day MVRV ratio cover? The 365-day MVRV ratio specifically analyzes coins that last moved within the past year. This provides insight into the profitability position of recent market participants, as opposed to long-term holders who may have purchased at significantly lower prices. Q4: How reliable are funding rates as indicators of market positioning? Funding rates serve as reliable indicators of leveraged market positioning because they directly reflect the cost traders are willing to pay to maintain their positions. Extremely negative rates typically indicate crowded short positioning, while extremely positive rates suggest crowded long positioning. Q5: What other factors should investors consider alongside these technical indicators? Investors should consider broader market conditions, Cardano network fundamentals, regulatory developments, macroeconomic factors, and Bitcoin’s market dominance. Technical indicators provide valuable insights but should be considered alongside these broader contextual factors. This post Cardano ADA Poised for Explosive Rebound Amid Record Short Positions and Deep Holder Losses first appeared on BitcoinWorld .
25 Mar 2026, 05:31
Cardano Faces Steep Losses as Short Positions Hit All-Time Highs
Cardano holders have seen average losses of 43 percent over the past year. Short positions and negative funding rates signal potential for a price reversal. Continue Reading: Cardano Faces Steep Losses as Short Positions Hit All-Time Highs The post Cardano Faces Steep Losses as Short Positions Hit All-Time Highs appeared first on COINTURK NEWS .
