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18 Mar 2026, 11:25

Bitcoin-Gold Correlation Shatters: Divergence Hits Extreme -0.88 Level

BitcoinWorld Bitcoin-Gold Correlation Shatters: Divergence Hits Extreme -0.88 Level Global financial markets witnessed a significant divergence this week as the Bitcoin-gold correlation plunged to -0.88, marking the most extreme negative relationship between these assets since November 2022. According to data analytics firm CryptoQuant, this dramatic shift indicates the two traditional and digital safe-haven assets are moving in starkly opposite directions, challenging conventional portfolio strategies. Currently, Bitcoin trades at $73,940.29 on Binance’s USDT spot market, showing minimal movement while spot gold experiences notable declines. Understanding the Bitcoin-Gold Correlation Breakdown Correlation coefficients measure how two assets move relative to each other, ranging from +1 (perfect positive correlation) to -1 (perfect negative correlation). A reading of -0.88 represents an exceptionally strong inverse relationship. Essentially, when Bitcoin’s value increases, gold’s value tends to decrease significantly, and vice versa. This development contradicts the historical pattern where both assets occasionally moved in tandem during periods of economic uncertainty. Market analysts immediately noted several contributing factors to this divergence. First, Bitcoin continues to benefit from institutional adoption through spot ETF approvals and growing regulatory clarity in major economies. Meanwhile, gold faces pressure from rising real yields and a strengthening US dollar. Additionally, the cryptocurrency’s fixed supply contrasts sharply with gold’s continuous mining production, creating fundamentally different supply dynamics that influence price movements. Historical Context and Market Implications The current -0.88 correlation represents the most negative relationship since November 2022, when markets grappled with the FTX collapse and subsequent crypto winter. During that period, Bitcoin experienced dramatic declines while gold maintained relative stability, creating temporary negative correlations. However, the current divergence occurs under markedly different market conditions, with Bitcoin approaching all-time highs while gold consolidates after its recent rally. This correlation breakdown carries significant implications for portfolio managers and individual investors alike. Traditionally, investors allocated portions of their portfolios to both assets as hedges against inflation and currency devaluation. The strong negative correlation now suggests these assets may no longer provide complementary protection, potentially requiring portfolio rebalancing strategies. Furthermore, the divergence highlights how digital and physical stores of value respond differently to evolving macroeconomic signals. Expert Analysis and Market Reactions Financial analysts emphasize that correlation patterns constantly evolve and rarely remain static for extended periods. The current extreme reading may represent a temporary market anomaly rather than a permanent structural shift. However, the persistence of this divergence over several trading sessions warrants close monitoring. Market participants should consider whether this represents a fundamental reassessment of Bitcoin’s role relative to traditional safe-haven assets or merely short-term technical positioning. Several institutional research desks have published notes analyzing this development. Most agree that Bitcoin’s maturation as an institutional asset class has altered its relationship with traditional markets. The cryptocurrency now responds more directly to technology sector performance and monetary policy expectations, while gold maintains its traditional sensitivity to real interest rates and geopolitical tensions. This divergence in fundamental drivers naturally leads to diverging price movements. Current Market Data and Performance Comparison As of the latest market close, specific price movements highlight this correlation breakdown. Bitcoin trades at $73,940.29 on Binance’s USDT spot market, showing a marginal 0.04% increase from the previous session. Conversely, spot gold trades at $4,969.195, representing a 0.72% decline over the same period. This opposing price action directly illustrates the negative correlation reported by CryptoQuant. The following table summarizes key metrics for both assets: Asset Current Price 24-Hour Change Market Context Bitcoin (BTC) $73,940.29 +0.04% Approaching all-time highs Spot Gold $4,969.195 -0.72% Consolidating after rally Several technical factors contribute to these price movements: Bitcoin momentum continues despite recent volatility Gold faces resistance at key psychological levels Trading volumes show increased activity in both markets Options positioning indicates differing sentiment between assets Macroeconomic Factors Driving the Divergence Multiple macroeconomic developments explain why Bitcoin and gold move in opposite directions. First, inflation expectations have moderated in recent weeks, reducing immediate demand for traditional inflation hedges like gold. Second, technology sector performance remains robust, benefiting Bitcoin through its perceived association with innovation assets. Third, central bank policies continue to diverge globally, creating complex cross-currents that affect digital and physical assets differently. Additionally, specific cryptocurrency market developments influence Bitcoin independently of traditional factors. The sustained inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs demonstrate growing institutional acceptance. Meanwhile, network fundamentals like hash rate and active addresses remain strong. These cryptocurrency-specific factors create price drivers that don’t necessarily affect gold markets, naturally leading to correlation breakdowns during periods of crypto-specific developments. Portfolio Strategy Considerations The extreme negative correlation presents both challenges and opportunities for investors. On one hand, traditional 60/40 portfolios that included both Bitcoin and gold for diversification may require reassessment. On the other hand, the divergence creates potential for tactical allocation strategies that capitalize on the inverse relationship. Some quantitative funds already employ statistical arbitrage strategies based on such correlation breakdowns, though retail investors should approach these sophisticated strategies cautiously. Financial advisors generally recommend maintaining a long-term perspective despite short-term correlation extremes. Both Bitcoin and gold serve different purposes in a diversified portfolio, and their relationship will likely normalize over time. However, the current environment does suggest that automatic rebalancing between these assets might require adjustment to account for the strengthened negative correlation. Conclusion The Bitcoin-gold correlation reaching -0.88 represents a significant market development with implications across multiple asset classes. This extreme negative relationship, the strongest since November 2022, highlights how digital and physical stores of value respond differently to current economic conditions. While correlation patterns inevitably change, the current divergence underscores Bitcoin’s evolving role in global finance. Market participants should monitor this relationship closely as it may signal broader shifts in how investors perceive and utilize alternative assets in their portfolios. The Bitcoin-gold correlation breakdown serves as a reminder that historical relationships between assets can change dramatically as markets evolve and new factors emerge. FAQs Q1: What does a -0.88 correlation between Bitcoin and gold mean? A correlation of -0.88 indicates a very strong inverse relationship. When Bitcoin’s price moves in one direction, gold’s price tends to move in the opposite direction about 88% of the time, making them nearly perfect opposites in current market movements. Q2: How long has this negative correlation persisted? While correlations fluctuate daily, the current extreme reading of -0.88 represents the most negative relationship since November 2022. The trend toward divergence has been developing over several weeks as different factors affect each asset. Q3: Should investors change their portfolio allocation because of this correlation? While the correlation is noteworthy, most financial advisors recommend maintaining long-term investment strategies rather than reacting to short-term statistical anomalies. However, investors might review their rebalancing approaches between these assets. Q4: What factors are driving Bitcoin and gold in opposite directions? Bitcoin benefits from institutional adoption through ETFs and technology sector strength, while gold faces pressure from rising real yields and dollar strength. Different fundamental drivers naturally create diverging price movements. Q5: Could this correlation return to positive territory? Yes, correlations between assets constantly evolve. During periods of market stress or economic uncertainty, Bitcoin and gold have historically shown positive correlation at times. The current extreme negative reading will likely normalize as market conditions change. This post Bitcoin-Gold Correlation Shatters: Divergence Hits Extreme -0.88 Level first appeared on BitcoinWorld .

18 Mar 2026, 11:15

USD/INR Shatters Records: Rupee Plunges to Historic 93.00 High Before Fed Decision

BitcoinWorld USD/INR Shatters Records: Rupee Plunges to Historic 93.00 High Before Fed Decision The Indian rupee plunged to unprecedented levels against the U.S. dollar on Wednesday, with the USD/INR pair breaching the critical 93.00 psychological barrier for the first time in history. This dramatic movement occurred just hours before the Federal Reserve’s highly anticipated policy announcement, sending shockwaves through Asian currency markets and raising concerns about imported inflation pressures. Market analysts immediately flagged the development as a significant milestone in global forex dynamics. USD/INR Exchange Rate Reaches Historic Territory The USD/INR currency pair surged past the 93.00 mark during early Asian trading hours, representing a substantial depreciation of the Indian rupee. This movement follows weeks of gradual pressure on emerging market currencies. Consequently, traders accelerated their dollar purchases ahead of the Federal Open Market Committee meeting. The Reserve Bank of India reportedly intervened in the forex market to stabilize the currency. However, market forces overwhelmed these efforts temporarily. Historical data reveals the significance of this milestone. The rupee has now depreciated approximately 8% against the dollar year-to-date. Furthermore, this represents a 15% decline from levels observed just two years ago. Several factors contributed to this rapid movement. First, widening interest rate differentials between the U.S. and India created dollar demand. Second, elevated crude oil prices increased India’s import bill substantially. Third, foreign portfolio investors continued their exit from Indian equity markets. Federal Reserve Policy Decision Looms Large Market participants universally attribute today’s volatility to the impending Federal Reserve announcement. The U.S. central bank faces mounting pressure to maintain its hawkish stance against persistent inflation. Economists widely expect the Fed to hold interest rates steady at current elevated levels. However, the accompanying statement and economic projections will provide crucial guidance. Specifically, traders will scrutinize the “dot plot” for future rate path signals. Expert Analysis of Currency Market Dynamics Senior currency strategists at major global banks provided immediate commentary. “The 93.00 breach represents a technical breakout with significant psychological implications,” noted Priya Sharma, Chief Asia FX Strategist at Standard Chartered. “Market positioning had become extremely dollar-long ahead of this Fed meeting. Additionally, India’s current account dynamics remain vulnerable to energy price shocks.” Sharma emphasized that the RBI possesses substantial foreign exchange reserves exceeding $600 billion. Therefore, the central bank maintains adequate firepower for currency defense operations. Meanwhile, Rajesh Mehta, Head of Trading at ICICI Bank, highlighted technical factors. “The USD/INR pair broke through multiple resistance levels in quick succession. Stop-loss orders triggered above 92.80 accelerated the move. Now, the market will test whether 93.50 becomes the next target.” Mehta further explained that importers rushed to cover near-term dollar requirements. Conversely, exporters hesitated to sell dollars, anticipating further rupee weakness. Economic Impacts on Indian Economy A weaker rupee presents a complex economic picture with both advantages and disadvantages. On the positive side, Indian exporters gain competitiveness in global markets. Information technology companies, pharmaceutical exporters, and textile manufacturers typically benefit from currency depreciation. Their dollar-denominated revenues convert to more rupees, boosting profitability. However, the negative consequences often outweigh these benefits. Imported Inflation: India imports over 80% of its crude oil requirements. A weaker rupee increases the rupee cost of oil imports, raising fuel prices and transportation costs across the economy. Corporate Debt: Indian companies with substantial foreign currency borrowings face higher repayment burdens. Their interest expenses and principal repayments increase in rupee terms. Foreign Investment: Currency volatility may deter foreign direct investment. International investors seek stable currency environments for long-term capital deployment. Government Finances: Higher fuel import costs can widen the fiscal deficit through increased subsidy requirements. This limits the government’s capacity for developmental spending. The following table illustrates recent USD/INR movements: Date USD/INR Rate Daily Change Today 93.05 +0.78% Yesterday 92.33 +0.42% One Week Ago 91.85 +1.31% One Month Ago 90.20 +3.16% One Year Ago 86.45 +7.63% Global Context and Emerging Market Pressures The rupee’s depreciation forms part of a broader emerging market currency trend. The U.S. dollar index strengthened against most major currencies this week. Asian peers including the Indonesian rupiah and Philippine peso also faced selling pressure. However, the rupee’s decline exceeded regional averages. This relative underperformance reflects India-specific macroeconomic factors. Global risk sentiment deteriorated ahead of the Fed meeting. Equity markets experienced volatility as investors reduced exposure to risk assets. Meanwhile, U.S. Treasury yields remained elevated, maintaining the dollar’s interest rate advantage. Consequently, capital flowed toward dollar-denominated assets. Emerging market central banks face difficult policy choices. They must balance currency stability against growth objectives and inflation control. Reserve Bank of India’s Policy Options The RBI employs multiple tools for currency management. Direct intervention in the spot forex market represents the most immediate response. The central bank sells dollars from its reserves to increase rupee supply. Additionally, the RBI can utilize forward market operations and non-deliverable forwards. Monetary policy adjustments offer another avenue. However, raising interest rates to defend the currency could slow economic growth. Historically, the RBI has demonstrated a preference for gradual currency adjustment. Sudden, sharp movements disrupt economic planning for businesses. Therefore, analysts expect measured intervention around key psychological levels. The central bank also coordinates with the government on macroeconomic policies. Fiscal measures addressing the current account deficit could provide fundamental support for the rupee. Market Outlook and Technical Analysis Technical analysts identify several key levels for the USD/INR pair. The 93.00 level now becomes crucial support-turned-resistance. A sustained break above this level could open the path toward 93.50. Conversely, a pullback below 92.80 might indicate temporary exhaustion. Momentum indicators show the pair in overbought territory. However, strong trends often maintain overbought conditions for extended periods. Options market data reveals increased demand for dollar calls. This indicates traders anticipate further rupee depreciation. Implied volatility spiked ahead of the Fed announcement. Market participants price in continued uncertainty. The one-month risk reversal favors dollar strength. Meanwhile, forward premiums compressed as interest rate differentials narrowed. Conclusion The USD/INR exchange rate reaching 93.00 marks a historic moment for currency markets. This development reflects complex global monetary policy dynamics and domestic economic factors. The Federal Reserve’s impending decision will determine near-term direction. However, structural elements including India’s current account balance and inflation trajectory will influence the rupee’s medium-term path. Market participants must monitor both global developments and domestic policy responses. Currency stability remains crucial for India’s economic growth and financial market confidence. FAQs Q1: What does USD/INR 93.00 mean for the Indian economy? The USD/INR reaching 93.00 indicates significant rupee depreciation. This increases import costs, particularly for oil, potentially raising inflation. Exporters may benefit, but overall, it pressures corporate balance sheets and foreign investment. Q2: Why is the Federal Reserve policy important for the Indian rupee? The Federal Reserve sets U.S. interest rates, influencing global capital flows. Higher U.S. rates typically strengthen the dollar as investors seek better returns, putting pressure on emerging market currencies like the rupee. Q3: How does the Reserve Bank of India respond to currency depreciation? The RBI can intervene directly by selling U.S. dollars from its reserves to support the rupee. It may also use monetary policy tools, though raising interest rates to defend the currency can slow economic growth. Q4: What are the main factors causing the rupee’s decline? Key factors include widening U.S.-India interest rate differentials, high global crude oil prices increasing India’s import bill, foreign investor outflows from Indian markets, and overall dollar strength. Q5: How does a weaker rupee affect common citizens? Citizens face higher prices for imported goods, including fuel, electronics, and some food items. Travel and education abroad become more expensive, while remittances from abroad convert to more rupees. This post USD/INR Shatters Records: Rupee Plunges to Historic 93.00 High Before Fed Decision first appeared on BitcoinWorld .

18 Mar 2026, 11:11

Ethereum Bulls Push Price Toward Critical $2,400 Resistance

Ethereum’s price tests the tough $2,400 resistance after a nearly 19% climb. High trading volumes and short-term activity point to increased market volatility. Continue Reading: Ethereum Bulls Push Price Toward Critical $2,400 Resistance The post Ethereum Bulls Push Price Toward Critical $2,400 Resistance appeared first on COINTURK NEWS .

18 Mar 2026, 11:07

Analyst Warns BTC Dominance Break Will Dictate Whether Alts Explode or Collapse

Bitcoin’s market share is stuck between 58% and 60%, which is a six-month trading range that one expert says will decide whether Ethereum and smaller altcoins enter a bullish season or suffer more losses. As such, the market observer urged keeping an eye on the level at which dominance could break, ushering in the next big move in the crypto market. The Narrow Corridor Controlling Crypto’s Fate Bitcoin dominance (BTC.D), which measures how much of the total cryptocurrency market cap BTC makes up, was stuck between 58% and 60% for the last 6 months. But according to analyst Ash Crypto, this consolidation has created a technical setup where a break above 60% could send dominance up to 63% or 64%. And if that happened, it would mean that institutions are only buying Bitcoin, causing altcoins to bleed further and pushing the value of the ETH/BTC pair to new lows. On the other hand, a break below 58% would mean that capital is leaving Bitcoin and going into Ethereum and other altcoins. The analysts said that this would confirm an ETH/BTC breakout above the 0.0320 level, which would mark the start of a genuine altcoin season. The ETH/BTC pair itself is printing what Ash Crypto described as a bear trap, something it has done twice before. “Break above 0.0320 and ETH starts outperforming Bitcoin,” the expert wrote. “Break below 0.0280 and new lows follow.” At the time of writing, ETH/BTC was trading close to 0.0314, just below the critical threshold Ash Crypto had identified. Ethereum’s Technical Picture Gets Interesting BTC itself has been mostly flat over the past 24 hours, staying just above $74,000 after hitting a six-week high of about $76,000 on Coinbase on Tuesday. However, there’s much more action over longer periods, with the asset up more than 6% in the last seven days and about 8% across 30 days. Ethereum has had a pretty good performance in the last few weeks, going up about 14% in the last seven days and about 18% in both the last 14 and 30 days. At the time of writing, it was trading above the $2,300 level, up 22% from the same time last year, compared to BTC’s nearly 11% drop in the same period. At the same time, ETH’s SuperTrend indicator changed from “Sell” to “Buy” for the first time since September 2025. Recall, the last two times that signal showed up, the cryptocurrency rose by 52% and 174%, respectively, prompting analyst Ali Martinez to identify $2,400 and $2,600 as the next levels to watch. The post Analyst Warns BTC Dominance Break Will Dictate Whether Alts Explode or Collapse appeared first on CryptoPotato .

18 Mar 2026, 11:00

Bitcoin Whale Withdraws a Staggering $37.2M from Binance in Major Hold Signal

BitcoinWorld Bitcoin Whale Withdraws a Staggering $37.2M from Binance in Major Hold Signal A significant cryptocurrency transaction has captured market attention as an anonymous Bitcoin whale withdraws a staggering $37.2 million from the Binance exchange, a move analysts often interpret as a bullish long-term holding signal. According to data from the on-chain analytics platform Onchain Lens, the mysterious address ‘bc1qf…’ moved 500.78 BTC off the exchange on April 2, 2025. Consequently, this single action provides a compelling data point for understanding current institutional and high-net-worth investor sentiment toward Bitcoin. Furthermore, large-scale withdrawals from centralized exchanges typically reduce immediate selling pressure, a fact that market participants watch closely. Bitcoin Whale Activity Signals Accumulation Trend The recent 500.78 BTC withdrawal represents a substantial capital movement. To put this into perspective, the total value of $37.16 million exceeds the market capitalization of many small-cap public companies. The receiving address now boasts a formidable balance of 3,135.54 BTC, valued at approximately $232.5 million. This accumulation pattern suggests a strategic, long-term investment thesis rather than short-term speculation. On-chain analysts consistently monitor such wallets because their behavior often precedes broader market trends. For instance, sustained accumulation from whales can indicate underlying confidence in Bitcoin’s fundamental value proposition, especially during periods of price consolidation or uncertainty. Historically, exchange net flows serve as a critical on-chain metric. Notably, when the exchange balance metric declines, it signals that more coins are moving into private custody. This data point is a cornerstone of blockchain analytics. Key indicators from this event include: Exchange Netflow: A negative value, indicating more BTC leaving than entering Binance. Holder Concentration: An increase in the number of addresses holding 1,000+ BTC. Illiquid Supply Shock: The reduction of immediately tradable supply on exchanges. Analyzing the Impact of Major Crypto Withdrawals Large withdrawals directly impact market dynamics by altering supply and demand mechanics on trading platforms. When a whale removes coins, those specific BTC become unavailable for immediate spot selling or futures trading collateral. This action can subtly reduce sell-side liquidity on the order books. Therefore, even without a corresponding buy order, the market structure becomes slightly more prone to upward price movements if demand remains constant. Market analysts at firms like Glassnode and CryptoQuant have published extensive research correlating exchange outflows with subsequent bullish price phases. For example, similar patterns of accumulation were observed in late 2020 before Bitcoin’s historic rally to its then all-time high. The Psychology Behind the ‘HODL’ Mentality The decision to move assets from an exchange to a private wallet involves clear intent. Primarily, it reflects a preference for self-custody over the convenience of an exchange-hosted wallet. This shift often aligns with the ‘HODL’ philosophy—a long-term holding strategy immune to daily volatility. Experts in behavioral finance note that such moves by large entities can have a psychological impact on retail investors, potentially reinforcing a collective holding mentality. Moreover, in the current regulatory climate, with increasing clarity around digital asset custody, institutional players are more frequently opting for qualified custodians or sophisticated self-custody solutions, a trend this withdrawal may exemplify. Let’s examine the scale of this withdrawal compared to typical activity: Transaction Type Typical BTC Size This Whale’s Move Average Exchange Withdrawal ~0.5 – 5 BTC 500.78 BTC Institutional Transfer 50 – 200 BTC 500.78 BTC Exchange Cold Wallet Move 1,000 – 10,000 BTC 500.78 BTC As the table shows, this transaction sits firmly in the upper echelon of individual investor activity, blurring the line with institutional-scale movement. Broader Context of 2025 Cryptocurrency Markets This event occurs within a specific macroeconomic and regulatory framework. In 2025, many jurisdictions have implemented clearer digital asset regulations, influencing investor behavior. Additionally, the maturation of Bitcoin as a potential macro asset and inflation hedge continues to attract substantial capital. The whale’s action may also be a reaction to specific exchange-related factors, such as the pursuit of enhanced security, participation in off-exchange earning strategies like staking or lending through decentralized finance (DeFi) protocols, or preparation for upcoming network upgrades. It is crucial to analyze such moves not in isolation but as part of a continuum of on-chain data that includes mining activity, network hash rate, and derivative market positioning. Simultaneously, the growth of the Lightning Network and other layer-2 solutions provides more utility for held Bitcoin, potentially increasing the incentive to custody assets personally. The evolving landscape makes whale movements a multifaceted signal. Analysts must consider several concurrent factors: Global monetary policy and interest rate environments. The health and transparency of the specific exchange involved. Technological advancements in wallet security and user experience. The overall risk appetite in traditional financial markets. Conclusion The withdrawal of $37.2 million in Bitcoin from Binance by an anonymous whale is a significant on-chain event that underscores a prevailing accumulation trend among large holders. This Bitcoin whale activity reduces readily available supply on a major exchange, potentially signaling long-term confidence amid the current market landscape. While a single transaction does not dictate market direction, it contributes to a larger mosaic of data that informed investors and analysts use to gauge sentiment. Ultimately, the movement of capital into private custody reflects the ongoing maturation of the cryptocurrency ecosystem, where security and long-term ownership are increasingly prioritized by major stakeholders. FAQs Q1: What does it mean when a Bitcoin whale withdraws coins from an exchange? It typically indicates an intent to hold the assets for the long term (often called ‘HODLing’). Moving coins to a private wallet removes them from the exchange’s immediate sell-side order book, which can be interpreted as a reduction in potential selling pressure. Q2: How do analysts track anonymous whale wallets? Analysts use on-chain analytics platforms like Onchain Lens, Glassnode, and CryptoQuant. These tools cluster addresses, track transaction flows, and monitor exchange net flows to identify patterns and label wallets belonging to large entities, often based on behavioral heuristics. Q3: Is a large withdrawal always a bullish sign for Bitcoin’s price? Not always, but it is generally considered a constructive signal. While it suggests accumulation, broader price action depends on numerous other factors like overall market demand, macroeconomic conditions, and regulatory news. It is one data point among many. Q4: What is the difference between an exchange wallet and a private wallet? An exchange wallet is custodial, meaning the exchange controls the private keys. A private wallet, whether hardware (like a Ledger or Trezor) or software-based, gives the individual user full control and responsibility over their private keys and funds. Q5: Could this withdrawal be related to staking or earning yield elsewhere? Yes, that is a possibility. While moving to cold storage suggests pure holding, the assets could also be transferred to a wallet connected to a decentralized finance (DeFi) protocol or a dedicated staking service to generate yield, a growing trend among institutional crypto investors. This post Bitcoin Whale Withdraws a Staggering $37.2M from Binance in Major Hold Signal first appeared on BitcoinWorld .

18 Mar 2026, 10:53

Bitcoin Holds Steady Near $74K Without Dropping: Can Bulls Break Bear Flag Top? – BTC TA March 18, 2026

When the $BTC price posted a higher high at $76K, arriving at the top of the bear flag as it did so, one might have expected a pull-back with the bears taking back control for a while. Instead, what we have is the price maintaining around $74K. Is Bitcoin setting up for a bullish breakout? A break up or down? Source: TradingView The short-term time frame tells us that the $BTC price is being corralled into an ever-tightening space formed by the top trendline of the bear flag, and the minor ascending trendline. There are perhaps another couple of days before one of these trendlines has to give. Of course, the minor trendline is of very little strength and importance when compared with the top trendline of the bear flag, and the price can fall through it relatively easily. That said, such an occurrence would not necessarily put the bulls off. The price can still continue to chop sideways until the bulls are ready for another breakout attempt. Looking at the Stochastic RSI indicators for this 4-hour time frame, they look as though they are getting close to a bottom and a potential crossover back to the upside. Could a breakout surge be on its way? The probabilities favour a rejection Source: TradingView The daily time frame gives us a bird’s eye view of this bear flag and the previous one. It can be observed that the $BTC price is near the breakout point at the top of the bear flag. That said, wouldn’t this pattern setup, just like the previous one, suggest that the most probable outcome is for a dip back down into the flag? Nevertheless, everyone knows that when the market is expecting a certain outcome, the opposite is very likely to happen. Could the breakout occur, hit the top of the descending channel (and the 100-day SMA)? A rejection from there could see the price come back to the top of the bear flag, followed by a bounce, or a reentry into the bear flag? All pure speculation, but we know that the market will do its utmost to wrongfoot the majority of traders and investors. The two indicators at the bottom of the chart are less about speculation, and they are probably favouring the rejection thesis. Firstly, the Stochastic RSI indicators in the daily time frame have reached their top limit and are starting to roll over, suggesting that momentum could be dropping soon. Secondly, the RSI illustrates another ascending channel . This is much more likely to see a break down than a break to the upside. Therefore, the cold and clinical view is that a rejection is the more likely outcome. Weekly MACD posturing a potential rally Source: TradingView Bringing the MACD indicator into the weekly time frame makes for interesting viewing. The indicator lines are at their lowest point in Bitcoin’s history, and as can be seen, the blue MACD indicator line is bending up to potentially cross above the red signal line - usually the sign of a big rally, as long as the cross does take place of course. It should also be noted that the pink histogram bars are getting ever smaller. Once we get the first green bar that’s also a good sign that a rally is about to get started. Conclusion In conclusion, there is conflicting data which favours the bulls and bears alike. Notwithstanding, if it were easy to forecast a bottom for the $BTC price , we would all be millionaires. Bottoms are normally tortuous and devious. For an asset such as Bitcoin, a DCA strategy is often the best way to go. It’s not necessary to pick the absolute low point of this bear market, it’s more important to have some skin in the game when the next big rally begins. Disclaimer: This article is provided for informational purposes only. It is not offered or intended to be used as legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice.