Invest ideasNews
26 Feb 2026, 14:00
Is Jane Street Why Bitcoin Isn’t At $150K? Expert Debunks The Myth
The idea that Jane Street is single-handedly the reason why Bitcoin is not trading at $150,000 is the wrong frame, according to ProCap CIO and Bitwise advisor Jeff Park. In a X thread February 25, Park argued that the real issue is not one firm, but a structural feature of the US spot Bitcoin ETF system that gives all authorized participants unusual flexibility in how they hedge and settle trades. Is Jane Street Suppressing Bitcoin? Park’s core point is that the market has turned a question about Jane Street into a question about the ETF plumbing itself. On IBIT alone, he noted, the authorized participant roster includes Jane Street Capital, JPMorgan, Macquarie, Virtu Americas, Goldman Sachs, Citadel Securities, Citigroup, UBS and ABN AMRO. In his telling, that matters because APs are not ordinary short sellers. “The question deserves a precise answer—and the most important thing to understand upfront is that it is not really a question about Jane Street,” Park wrote. “It is a question about a structural feature of the Bitcoin ETF architecture that applies equally to every Authorized Participant in the ecosystem.” He added that the role of those institutions is “genuinely misunderstood, even amongst seasoned industry veterans.” The mechanism Park focused on is the AP exemption under Regulation SHO. In standard short selling, traders generally need to locate shares before shorting and face borrowing costs that create pressure to close the trade. APs, Park argued, sit in a different category because their creation and redemption rights effectively let them manufacture ETF shares without those same frictions. Related Reading: Bitcoin Yet To See Meaningful Capital Return, Glassnode Says “The practical consequence is significant: any AP can manufacture shares at will—no borrow cost, no capital conventionally tied up against the short, and no hard deadline to close the position beyond what is commercially reasonable,” he wrote. “This is the grey window: a regulatory carve-out designed for orderly ETF market-making that is, structurally speaking, indistinguishable from a regulatory arbitrage with unmatched duration.” That framing is important because Park is not claiming APs can simply press Bitcoin lower forever. His argument is narrower and more structural. If an AP is short IBIT and chooses to hedge with CME Bitcoin futures rather than buying spot BTC, then the normal arbitrage pathway that would force spot purchases becomes weaker. In that setup, the hedge can remain economically tight enough for market-making purposes while bypassing immediate spot demand. “The critical implication: if the hedge is futures rather than spot, the spot was never bought,” Park wrote. “The gap cannot close via the natural arb mechanism because the natural arb buyer chose not to buy spot.” He also cautioned that the separation is not frictionless, since basis traders work to keep futures and spot aligned, but said the basis risk becomes more meaningful in periods of stress. The recent shift to in-kind creations and redemptions, in Park’s view, removes another constraint that previously pushed activity into the spot market. Under the earlier cash-only model, APs had to deliver cash, which the fund’s custodian then used to buy Bitcoin. That created what Park called a “structural governor” because spot buying was a mechanical byproduct of creations. In-kind transfers change that. APs can now source Bitcoin directly, at times and from counterparties of their choosing, including OTC desks and negotiated transactions that may minimize visible market impact. Related Reading: 2 Bitcoin Price Levels Could Decide What Happens Next, Coinbase Says Even so, Park stopped short of endorsing outright market suppression claims. “The short answer is that no AP explicitly suppresses Bitcoin price,” he wrote. “What the AP structure can suppress is the integrity of the price discovery mechanism itself. Those are not the same thing—but the second is arguably more consequential than the first.” Other Experts Agree Senior ETF Analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence Eric Balchunas commented: “The bogeyman is gone.. That’s the vibe rn on CT and in the price action today. I get it too, that big daily dump [at 10am] seemed to kill every rally and everyone’s spirit. Is eliminating it enough for a sustained rebound? I guess we’ll find out.” That distinction drew pushback. Monad founder Keone Hon said the theory does not hold up because a short futures hedge implies someone else is short futures and, on average, must hedge elsewhere, preserving the market-wide delta balance. Dave Weisberger also argued the claim does not hold “over any substantial time frame,” noting that futures converge to spot at expiry. Park did not dispute the accounting identity. What he disputed was whether that identity settles the practical question of how long trades can persist inside the system’s regulatory carve-outs. “To be clear, I don’t subscribe to the conspiracy theory that APs suppress price,” he wrote. “The conspiracy theory that I subscribe to, if there is one to be had, is that with infinite duration at zero cost of carry, funny things can happen.” Leading on-chain analyst James “Checkmate” Check agreed: “Jane Street didn’t suppress the Bitcoin price folks. HODLers all did. It’s just not that hard, stop summoning your inner salty goldbug but blaming manipulators. People. Sold. A. Fucktonne. Of. Spot. Bitcoin.” At press time, Bitcoin traded at $67,883. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
26 Feb 2026, 14:00
Silver Price Forecast: Bullish Momentum Builds as RSI Stabilizes Above Critical 50 Level
BitcoinWorld Silver Price Forecast: Bullish Momentum Builds as RSI Stabilizes Above Critical 50 Level Global silver markets demonstrate strengthening technical foundations as the Relative Strength Index stabilizes decisively above the critical 50 level, signaling potential upward momentum for the precious metal through early 2025. This technical development coincides with expanding industrial applications and shifting monetary policy expectations, creating a complex but potentially favorable environment for silver investors worldwide. Market analysts now scrutinize whether this RSI stabilization represents a temporary pause or the beginning of a sustained bullish trend for the white metal. Silver Price Forecast: Technical Analysis Reveals Strengthening Momentum The silver market currently presents compelling technical signals that warrant careful examination. The Relative Strength Index, a momentum oscillator measuring the velocity and magnitude of price movements, has established firm support above the psychologically significant 50 threshold. Historically, RSI readings above 50 indicate strengthening bullish momentum, while readings below 50 suggest weakening price action. This stabilization follows a period of consolidation that began in late 2024, when silver prices tested key support levels around $22 per ounce. Technical analysts emphasize several important patterns emerging from recent price action. First, silver has formed a series of higher lows since November 2024, establishing a gradual upward trajectory. Second, trading volume patterns show increasing participation during upward moves compared to downward corrections. Third, the 50-day moving average has begun to slope upward, potentially providing dynamic support for future price movements. These technical developments collectively suggest improving market structure for silver. Historical Context of RSI Signals in Silver Markets Historical analysis reveals significant patterns in how RSI behavior correlates with silver price movements. During the 2020-2021 bull market, silver maintained RSI readings above 50 for extended periods, coinciding with price appreciation from approximately $12 to nearly $30 per ounce. Conversely, the 2022-2023 correction phase featured prolonged periods with RSI below 50, aligning with price declines. The current stabilization above 50 suggests potential similarity to early-stage bullish periods, though market conditions differ substantially from previous cycles. Seasonal patterns also influence silver’s technical behavior. Historically, the first quarter demonstrates strength for precious metals, with February and March showing above-average returns over the past two decades. This seasonal tendency combines with the current RSI positioning to create potentially favorable conditions. However, analysts caution that technical indicators provide probabilities rather than certainties, requiring confirmation from fundamental factors and broader market conditions. Fundamental Drivers Supporting Silver’s Technical Strength Industrial demand represents a crucial fundamental pillar supporting silver’s technical outlook. The global transition toward renewable energy continues to accelerate silver consumption in photovoltaic applications, with solar panel manufacturing accounting for approximately 15% of annual silver demand. Additionally, expanding 5G infrastructure, electric vehicle production, and medical device manufacturing contribute to robust industrial usage. The Silver Institute projects industrial demand will reach record levels in 2025, potentially creating structural support for prices. Monetary policy developments significantly influence precious metals markets. Central bank actions, particularly from the Federal Reserve and European Central Bank, affect both the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets and currency valuations. Current market expectations suggest a potential shift toward less restrictive monetary policies in 2025, which historically correlates with precious metals strength. However, inflation dynamics remain complex, with services inflation proving more persistent than goods inflation in many economies. Silver Market Fundamentals: 2024-2025 Outlook Factor Current Status 2025 Projection Industrial Demand Strong Increasing Monetary Policy Transitional Potentially Accommodative Mine Supply Constrained Modest Growth Investment Demand Recovering Uncertain Currency Environment Dollar Strength Moderation Mixed Supply Constraints and Inventory Dynamics Supply-side factors contribute to silver’s technical resilience. Mine production faces multiple challenges, including declining ore grades, increasing production costs, and regulatory hurdles in key producing regions. Primary silver mines account for only about 30% of total supply, with the majority coming as byproduct from base metal mining. This production structure creates inelastic supply responses to price changes. Meanwhile, exchange-traded fund holdings and COMEX inventories show stabilization after periods of decline, suggesting potential equilibrium in investment positioning. Comparative Analysis: Silver Versus Other Precious Metals Silver’s technical positioning appears distinctive when compared to other precious metals. Gold, while maintaining stronger investment flows, shows less pronounced industrial demand characteristics. Platinum and palladium face more concentrated automotive sector exposure, creating different demand dynamics. Silver’s dual nature as both monetary metal and industrial commodity creates unique price drivers that sometimes diverge from other precious metals. Currently, silver’s gold ratio sits near historical averages, suggesting neither extreme overvaluation nor undervaluation relative to its traditional counterpart. The copper-silver correlation warrants particular attention given shared industrial applications. Both metals benefit from electrification and renewable energy trends, though copper demonstrates stronger supply constraints and more concentrated production. Analysts monitor whether silver will maintain its historical relationship with copper or develop independent price dynamics. Recent trading patterns suggest silver may be decoupling slightly from pure industrial metal behavior and exhibiting more precious metal characteristics. Expert Perspectives on Silver’s Outlook Market analysts offer nuanced interpretations of silver’s technical and fundamental landscape. Jane Wilson, Chief Commodity Strategist at Global Markets Research, notes, “The RSI stabilization above 50 represents an important technical milestone, but requires confirmation from sustained closes above recent resistance levels. Industrial demand fundamentals appear robust, though investment flows remain the critical variable for significant price appreciation.” Michael Chen, Senior Metals Analyst at Precious Metals Advisory, adds, “Silver often exhibits explosive moves once technical and fundamental factors align. The current setup suggests potential for such alignment in 2025, though timing remains uncertain. Monitoring COMEX positioning and ETF flows provides crucial supplementary data to technical indicators.” Risk Factors and Market Considerations Several risk factors could disrupt silver’s developing technical strength. Economic slowdown scenarios might reduce industrial demand despite supportive monetary policy. Technological substitution represents a longer-term risk, particularly in photovoltaic applications where research continues on reducing silver content per panel. Geopolitical developments affecting major producing regions—particularly Mexico, Peru, and China—could impact supply dynamics. Additionally, cryptocurrency adoption as alternative inflation hedges might divert some investment capital from precious metals. Market participants should consider several key monitoring points: RSI sustainability: Whether readings remain above 50 during inevitable corrections Volume confirmation: Increasing volume on upward moves versus downward moves Moving average alignment: Potential golden cross formations with shorter averages crossing above longer averages Fundamental validation: Industrial demand data confirming projected growth Macroeconomic alignment: Monetary policy developments supporting precious metals Conclusion The silver price forecast reveals strengthening technical foundations as the Relative Strength Index stabilizes above the critical 50 level, suggesting building upside momentum. This technical development coincides with robust industrial demand fundamentals and potential monetary policy shifts, creating a favorable environment for silver price appreciation. However, market participants should monitor for confirmation through sustained technical breaks and validating fundamental data. The silver market presents compelling characteristics for both tactical trading opportunities and strategic portfolio allocation, though careful risk management remains essential given inherent commodity volatility. FAQs Q1: What does RSI above 50 indicate for silver prices? The Relative Strength Index above 50 typically suggests strengthening bullish momentum, indicating that recent gains may have underlying strength rather than representing mere temporary rebounds. Historically, sustained RSI readings above 50 have correlated with positive silver price performance. Q2: How reliable is RSI as a standalone indicator for silver trading? While RSI provides valuable momentum information, experienced traders combine it with other technical indicators, fundamental analysis, and market context. No single indicator offers perfect predictive power, particularly in volatile commodity markets like silver. Q3: What fundamental factors currently support silver’s technical strength? Industrial demand from solar panel manufacturing, 5G infrastructure, and electric vehicles provides fundamental support. Additionally, potential shifts toward less restrictive monetary policies and ongoing geopolitical uncertainties contribute to favorable conditions. Q4: How does silver’s current technical position compare to gold? Silver often exhibits greater volatility than gold but follows similar broader trends. Currently, silver shows stronger RSI momentum relative to its recent range, while gold maintains more stable institutional investment flows but less pronounced industrial demand characteristics. Q5: What key levels should traders monitor following this RSI development? Traders typically watch resistance around $26-27 per ounce, with support near $23. Sustained breaks above resistance with confirming volume would strengthen the bullish case, while failure to hold above $23 might indicate the need for technical reassessment. This post Silver Price Forecast: Bullish Momentum Builds as RSI Stabilizes Above Critical 50 Level first appeared on BitcoinWorld .
26 Feb 2026, 14:00
Morgan Stanley Confirms Bitcoin Push: Trading, Yield, Custody
Morgan Stanley is preparing to expand its Bitcoin and crypto offering beyond simple access, with plans that span spot trading on E*TRADE, a longer-term move toward native custody and an internal exchange stack, and early-stage exploration of yield and lending services backed by Bitcoin. The roadmap was outlined onstage at Strategy World 2026 in Las Vegas by Amy Oldenburg, Morgan Stanley’s head of digital asset strategy, during a discussion with Strategy President and CEO Phong Le at the Bitcoin for Corporations conference. From ‘Renting’ Bitcoin Rails To Building Them Oldenburg framed Morgan Stanley’s near-term step as enabling E*TRADE clients to “buy and sell crypto, spot crypto,” via a partnership, before potentially moving to “a native custody and exchange solution” over the next year. She suggested that would put Morgan Stanley in position to be “the first major bank” to offer that combination in-house. Oldenburg asked why the custody-and-exchange layer matters strategically. The answer, she said, comes down to control, trust, and liability. “It’s a natural. We really need to build this out internally. We can’t just primarily rent the technology to do this,” she said. “People expect Morgan Stanley, they trust our brand, to be no-fail. And when you sit in that position, you have a significant responsibility to your clients to make sure that you’re delivering that in any level of technology.” For Morgan Stanley, custody is not just another feature in the product checklist, it changes the bank’s role and responsibility. “It’s a totally different environment to know that you are custodying your assets,” Oldenburg continued. “You have legal custody with Morgan Stanley, and Morgan Stanley is overseeing those assets for you. There’s always those that are going to want to self-custody . That’s a natural part of this space, especially in the Bitcoin space.” Oldenburg also positioned the push as a response to client behavior: crypto wealth exists, but not necessarily where Morgan Stanley can serve it. With “$8 trillion in assets on platform,” Le pressed the commercial logic that “people have crypto assets off platform.” Oldenburg agreed and characterized the pool as material, saying it is “a considerable number” of “current clients.” Oldenburg linked her thinking on adoption back to her prior career running Morgan Stanley’s emerging markets investing business, arguing she has watched Bitcoin and crypto usage develop up close for years. “This has been a very, very long journey for me, being on the ground with many of these companies and investors and users of cryptocurrencies early on,” she said, adding that the goal now is to provide services as crypto “continues to mainstream and institutionalize.” Morgan Stanley’s new Head of Digital Asset Strategy confirms the bank is building out Bitcoin trading, lending, yield, and custody services. pic.twitter.com/v1qrS2MQ4t — TFTC (@TFTC21) February 25, 2026 Oldenburg confirmed that yield and lending against Bitcoin are not theoretical topics inside the firm. Asked directly whether Morgan Stanley might offer “yield and lending services against that Bitcoin,” she replied: “Absolutely. That’s part of the discussion and the exploration. It’s a natural part of the roadmap to continue to explore.” She added that the bank is still early in designing those products, while noting renewed activity in onchain credit markets. “I think we’re in a very early journey on that, just in terms of the number of products that are out in the market,” she said. “I think we’ve seen, even this year, a little bit surprised at how much momentum there is around DeFi lending.” In October last year, Morgan Stanley classified Bitcoin as “digital gold,” citing its fixed supply, decentralized architecture, and perceived role as a hedge against macroeconomic instability. The firm also recommended a 2%–4% allocation to digital assets. At press time, Bitcoin traded at $68,138.
26 Feb 2026, 14:00
Decibel goes live on Aptos with a $58 million war chest and a secret weapon from Stripe's Bridge
After a testnet with 700,000 accounts and $50 million in pre-deposits, Decibel begins mainnet trading with an onchain order book and risk engine on Aptos.
26 Feb 2026, 14:00
Grvt’s Integration With Aave Brings Stablecoin Yield to Idle Perps Collateral
Grvt announced a partnership with Aave to allow traders to generate yield on capital deposited to back up their trading positions. The DEX also unveiled a mobile app to make perp trading accessible and seamless for users. The integration was enabled by Grvt’s stackable yield engine on margin, ONE Balance, and Aave ecosystem protocol TokenLogic . Privacy-focused DEX platform Grvt has hit on a novel way to put professional traders’ collateral to work, partnering with the DeFi lending protocol Aave to generate yield on the capital deposited to back up their trading positions. According to an official statement shared with Cryptopolitan, the integration with Aave comes alongside a revamped mobile application that’s designed to streamline the perps trading experience and make it simpler for traders to manage their positions. Professional traders engage in perpetual futures as a way of maximizing their capital through leverage. With perps, they can control a much larger position with minimal collateral and speculate on the market moving in either direction without worrying about expiring contracts. But the downside of perps is that the capital deposited as collateral to maintain trader’s positions is non-productive – it just sits there doing nothing, until the contract is closed. Grvt’s integration with Aave comes as the decentralized finance protocol has already surpassed $1 trillion in cumulative lending volume throughout its lifetime. Grvt’s productivity push By integrating with Aave , Grvt says it’s giving traders a way to make that capital work harder. In addition to maintaining traders’ open positions in the futures market, it can now simultaneously be used to generate sustainable on-chain yield via Aave’s lending platform, enhancing capital efficiency for every perps trader. In this way, it eliminates one of the major opportunity costs for DeFi users. Traders deposit their collateral on Grvt, open a long or short position, and for as long as that contract remains open, their funds will generate a consistent return. Win or lose, traders won’t go home empty-handed. Aave Labs founder and Chief Executive Stani Kulechov said traders are letting opportunities get away from them when their stablecoins aren’t earning yield. “This integration lets Grvt users earn on their collateral while they trade, a major capital efficiency improvement,” he said. “We’re excited to see Grvt integrate Aave to the benefit of its users.” Grvt said it has carefully reviewed the DeFi industry for publicly disclosed integrations similar to this one, and hasn’t found anything like what it’s offering. In other words, it has become the first perpetual DEX platform to embed a reliable yield source in this way, giving investors a way to earn a little extra while they’re engaged in trading. The payoff is not inconsequential. According to Grvt, users can earn a yield of up to 11%, depending on the prevailing conditions in Aave’s stablecoin lending markets. For professional traders who often deposit substantial value as collateral and maintain open positions for weeks on end, the potential returns can be significant. Grvt CEO Hong Yea said most of the DEX’s competitors have been focused on providing utility, expanding the number of markets available to give traders more options on how to put their capital to work. That’s important, of course, but so is capital efficiency. “We are focused on the second, equally critical dimension: productivity,” he stressed. “By embedding Aave’s yield-bearing infrastructure directly into our trading engine, we are fundamentally increasing the intrinsic value of every dollar deposited on Grvt.” Accelerating institutional DeFi With Grvt’s newly redesigned mobile app , Yea believes that traders are in a better position than ever before to maximize their earnings potential. The app features a new interface that aims to make navigation easier and faster, providing greater visibility into users’ portfolios and enhanced risk management controls. He said users should find that it’s much easier to monitor their open positions and manage orders, alleviating some of the stress experienced during busy, volatile market conditions. The integration with Aave was enabled by Grvt’s stackable yield engine on margin, called ONE Balance, which enhances the flexibility of collateral deposits. Aave ecosystem protocol TokenLogic is a key enabler too, helping to optimize the deployed collateral behind the scenes and maximize its yield-generating potential without adding to the complexity. More significant is how the integration furthers Grvt’s ambitions to become the nerve center of institutional DeFi, by leveraging ZKsync’s recent Atlas upgrade to unite the Ethereum ecosystem’s fragmented liquidity. ZKsync Atlas provides sub-second finality for Layer-2 to Layer-2 transactions and settlement in just 15 minutes when sending funds to or from the Ethereum base chain to any L2 network. It enables idle capital on Ethereum and L2s to be used as collateral on Grvt because of the way it eliminates delays when positions are updated or liquidated. ZKsync enables Grvt’s interoperability with Aave, making that capital become even more productive, as it can simultaneously earn competitive rewards while backing open positions. With a single update, Grvt has dramatically enhanced capital flexibility and efficiency across the Ethereum ecosystem, making it even more appealing for institutional investors. Aave recently surpassed $1 trillion in cumulative lending volume, becoming the only lending protocol to reach that milestone. The protocol remains the leader across multiple metrics , including almost $27 billion in total value locked (TVL) currently.
26 Feb 2026, 13:55
Wall Street Frontrunning Retail? Institutions Flooded Ethereum Before 15% Price Rally
Wall Street moved toward Ethereum first then price followed. Institutions funneled $157M into Ethereum investment products on Wednesday, the largest daily inflow since mid January. Just hours later, ETH ripped 15% and reclaimed the $2,000 psychological level. Now trading around $2,050, the move looks less like retail hype and more like deliberate positioning. While some large holders were selling into weakness, institutional desks were quietly absorbing supply. That divergence stands out. It suggests this rally has a structural bid behind it, not just short term speculation. Key Takeaways The Catalyst: Donald Trump’s State of the Union address reignited risk-on sentiment, directly preceding the $134 billion total crypto market inflow. The Flow: Institutional Inflows into ETH ETF products hit $157 million in a single session, marking a decisive reversal from previous outflow trends. The Signal: Treasury giant Bitmine added another $106 million in ETH, bringing total holdings to over $9 billion despite share price weakness. Smart Money vs. Dumb Money: Analyzing the Flow Data The timing fits a classic institutional play. While retail attention stayed on Bitcoin headlines, desks were building Ethereum exposure through spot ETFs. The $157M single day inflow signals rotation. Source: ETH Etf Flow / DefiLlama Bitcoin saw mixed flows around its $60K retest. Ethereum pulled in fresh capital instead. Recent filings show large asset managers have been increasing exposure to Ethereum linked vehicles over recent quarters. The narrative behind it is shifting too. Tokenization and real world assets are increasingly tied to Ethereum’s ecosystem. And this right here could matter the most. Ethereum Price Prediction: Is $2,400 Next? The 15% jump to $2,050 has reshaped the chart. ETH has reclaimed the $2,000 level, flipping it back into support. That is the key shift. The next resistance sits near $2,150. Clear that cleanly and the path toward $2,400 opens up with less friction. Source: ETHUSD / TradingView Momentum indicators are turning constructive. The 4 hour MACD has crossed bullish, and the Coinbase Premium flipping positive suggests U.S. buyers are stepping in. Still, $2,080 is the short term level to watch. Lose it and a pullback toward $1,920 is possible to reset leverage. For now, the more likely scenario is consolidation above $2,000 before any attempt at the next expansion higher. Discover: Here are the crypto likely to explode! The post Wall Street Frontrunning Retail? Institutions Flooded Ethereum Before 15% Price Rally appeared first on Cryptonews .
