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20 May 2026, 17:00
British Pound Rebounds as Iran Deal Optimism Weakens the US Dollar
BitcoinWorld British Pound Rebounds as Iran Deal Optimism Weakens the US Dollar The British Pound staged a notable recovery against the US Dollar on Tuesday, as renewed diplomatic efforts surrounding a potential Iran nuclear deal dampened safe-haven demand for the greenback. Market participants shifted their focus toward risk-on assets, providing a tailwind for the Sterling. Market Sentiment Shifts on Iran Deal Hopes Reports indicating progress in negotiations between Iran and Western powers have increased the likelihood of a new nuclear agreement. Such a deal could lead to the lifting of sanctions on Iranian oil exports, potentially increasing global supply and easing geopolitical tensions. This development prompted a sell-off in the US Dollar, which had recently strengthened on safe-haven flows amid broader market uncertainty. The GBP/USD pair climbed back above the 1.2700 level, recovering from earlier losses. Traders noted that the move was largely driven by USD weakness rather than specific strength in the British economy, though the Pound benefited from the broader risk-on mood. Impact on Currency Markets The US Dollar Index (DXY) fell sharply as the news broke, retreating from multi-week highs. The British Pound was among the best-performing major currencies against the greenback, alongside commodity-linked currencies like the Australian and Canadian Dollars. Analysts suggest that if a deal is finalized, the USD could face further downward pressure in the near term. However, some strategists caution that the rally may be short-lived. The fundamental outlook for the UK economy remains mixed, with persistent inflation and sluggish growth data weighing on the Pound’s long-term prospects. The currency’s rebound is largely tied to external factors, making it vulnerable to sudden shifts in sentiment. What This Means for Traders and Investors For forex traders, the Iran deal narrative introduces a new variable that could disrupt recent trends. A sustained USD decline would benefit exporters in the UK but could also import inflationary pressures if the Pound remains weak against other major currencies. Investors are advised to monitor diplomatic developments closely, as any breakdown in talks could quickly reverse the current move. Conclusion The British Pound’s rebound against the US Dollar reflects a broader market reaction to optimism surrounding a potential Iran nuclear deal. While the move has provided short-term relief for Sterling bulls, the sustainability of the rally depends on concrete diplomatic progress and the resilience of the UK’s domestic economy. Traders should remain cautious and watch for official statements from negotiating parties. FAQs Q1: Why did the British Pound rebound against the US Dollar? The rebound was primarily driven by renewed hopes for an Iran nuclear deal, which reduced safe-haven demand for the US Dollar and boosted risk appetite in the market. Q2: How does an Iran nuclear deal affect currency markets? A deal could lead to the lifting of sanctions on Iranian oil exports, increasing global supply and lowering geopolitical tensions. This typically weakens the US Dollar as a safe-haven asset and supports currencies like the British Pound. Q3: Is the Pound’s rally likely to continue? The rally’s sustainability depends on the outcome of negotiations and broader economic data. While near-term momentum is positive, the Pound remains sensitive to UK economic fundamentals and any setbacks in diplomatic talks. This post British Pound Rebounds as Iran Deal Optimism Weakens the US Dollar first appeared on BitcoinWorld .
20 May 2026, 16:57
How Exposed Is Bitcoin to Quantum Computing Risk?
Almost one-third of all mined Bitcoin now has publicly visible keys on-chain, which means that exposure can be measured if quantum computers are able to break current cryptography. Approximately 6.04 million BTC are in the “exposed” category, and almost 13.99 million BTC are “protected” as their public keys are still hidden. Bitcoin’s exposure to quantum is dynamic, and varies significantly based on how large custodians address quantum wallet hygiene before quantum technology becomes mature. According to a new report from on-chain analytics firm Glassnode , nearly a third of all Bitcoin ever minted is held in wallet structures where the underlying public key is now on display on the blockchain—exactly the condition that would make them vulnerable if a powerful quantum computer ever emerged. The figure breaks down into two distinct problems with very different remedies. The 30% Number and What It Actually Means The first and foremost issue is technical. Each Bitcoin address has a private key that ultimately controls it. The public key is the counterpart of this cryptographic element; it enables the network to validate transactions without the secret key. Given the current assumptions in computing, it would be of no use to know somebody’s public key. It is impossible to practically reconstruct the private key from it. That changes all that with quantum computing. In theory, Shor’s algorithm can be used to work backwards from a public key to its private key if it is run on a quantum machine with enough processing power. So the crucial question in Glassnode’s analysis is a simple one: has the public key already appeared on-chain? If so, the coin is subject to measurable exposure in this context. If no, it isn’t — at least not yet. Bitcoin Supply By Quantum Safety Using the same criteria, the number of BTC that are exposed is now 6.04 million. There are also 13.99 million BTC remaining, which represents almost 70% of the total supply, that have no public key visibility at rest. Not All Exposure Is Equal These 6.04M are divided into two categories: structural exposure and operational exposure, and the two will have entirely different means of resolution or, in some cases, no means of resolution at all. Structural exposure represents 1.92 million BTC or 9.6% of the total issuance. These are coins held in output types where the public key is revealed by design, regardless of how carefully the owner manages their wallet. The oldest layer here is Satoshi-era P2PK outputs, the earliest type of transactions that Bitcoin used, in which the public key is just in the output script. These are coins believed to be minted by Satoshi Nakamoto and early miners. If those coins are lost or permanently inactive, they cannot be migrated to safer address types. Until these issues are solved by Bitcoin’s protocol, they will be exposed forever. Taproot is the latest wrinkle in this category, which was added to Bitcoin in 2021. Taproot is a major technical advancement that enhanced Bitcoin’s privacy and scripting features and is generally viewed as a positive advancement. But in Glassnode’s model, the Taproot output key is structurally exposed since it appears on-chain by default. A new proposed standard, BIP-360, which adds Pay-to-Merkle-Root outputs, is being developed in part to solve this — but it doesn’t automatically protect existing Taproot balances and is not a complete solution to the post-quantum problem. Structurally Unsafe Bitcoin3 Operational exposure represents the bigger part at 4.12 million BTC or 20.6% of supply, more than twice the structural number. Wallet behavior, not script design is the vulnerability. Other output types, such as P2PKH and P2WPKH, still hide the public keys behind cryptographic hashes, but coins remain untouched. The issue is that if an address is used after spending. When signing a transaction, the public key becomes public. If any balance is still linked to that address after that — or if that key is used again in any subsequent transactions — then the public key is now visible forever. The coin enters the category of exposed coins and remains in this category. Operationally Unsafe Bitcoin by Entity Exchanges Are the Largest Identifiable Source Exchange held balances make up the largest labeled subset in the operational exposure bucket. According to the data from Glassnode, the exchange-related BTC is at 1.66 million coins, which is around 8.3% of total supply, or about 40% of all operationally exposed Bitcoin. More striking is the relative figure: roughly half of all labeled exchange-held BTC falls into the exposed category, compared to under 30% for non-exchange supply. This breakdown by exchange is highly variable. Coinbase’s labeled balances sit at just 5% exposed, suggesting systematic address management practices. Binance comes in at 85% exposed. Bitfinex shows 100% exposure across its labeled balances under this methodology. Other companies include bitFlyer at 2% and Robinhood and WisdomTree both at 100%. Grayscale is around 50%. BTC Exchange Supply That’s a different situation for holders of the sovereign. It serves as a stark reminder of the differences between the hygiene of the wallet in the U.S. government and commercial exchange facilities, given that the U.K. government and El Salvador have also demonstrated an effective zero quantum exposure on labeled holdings. The direction of exchanges is visible from the trend line. The percentage of exchanges reporting operating in safe structures is around 55% in 2018. That’s now dropped to approximately 45% by 2026. The direction has been consistent and gradual, driven by the compounding effect of address reuse across years of high transaction volume. Operationally Unsafe Bitcoin by Entity Bitcoin Quantum Exposure Remains a Dynamic Metric Glassnode is clear that this research is not calculating the likelihood of attack, setting a timeline for the quantum breakthrough, or stating what the security stance of any custodian would be. It puts a map of what the public keys are visible today. The numbers should also be interpreted with the knowledge of the difference between at-rest and on-spend exposure. This dataset includes only coins which are present in already-exposed outputs. It doesn’t address the distinct issue of public key visibility when broadcasting a transaction, which falls into another class of risk and in another class of mitigation requirements. The data does enable entity level comparison and trend monitoring. The exposure category is not set in stone – it can be reduced. Exchanges and custodians that adopt stricter address rotation, key changes, and migrate assets to less exposed output types can minimize their measurable exposure without any change at the protocol level. The structural category is more challenging. They are Satoshi-era coins that have no owner to act on their behalf, and there is no mechanism on the network to move these coins. The 6.04 million figure will be dynamic. Structural exposure gradually increases with each new Taproot adoption. Any address reuse on an active exchange wallet increases operating risk. Whether that number is increasing or decreasing over time hinges largely on the largest custodians in the industry’s approach to address hygiene: as an infrastructure maintenance or as a secondary priority. Conclusion The data does not forecast a quantum attack: it represents an attack surface that already exists. Almost one-third of all Bitcoin supply is exposed with its public key visible, and a majority of this exposure has come from easily avoidable wallet practices by active, identifiable institutions. There is no definitive resolution on the structural piece (satoshis and keys that have been put to sleep). The operational piece does. The question is yet to be answered whether exchanges will respond to it before quantum computing makes such an action a must.
20 May 2026, 16:45
Circle Mints 250 Million USDC on Ethereum, Adding to Stablecoin Supply
BitcoinWorld Circle Mints 250 Million USDC on Ethereum, Adding to Stablecoin Supply Circle, the issuer of the USDC stablecoin, has minted an additional 250 million USDC tokens on the Ethereum blockchain, according to a report from blockchain tracking service Whale Alert. The transaction, executed at the USDC Treasury, adds to the circulating supply of the second-largest stablecoin by market capitalization. Details of the Minting Transaction Whale Alert flagged the transaction on [Date of event – if known, else remove this bracketed phrase], noting that the newly created tokens originated from the official USDC Treasury address. The minting of stablecoins like USDC typically occurs in response to market demand, often from institutional investors or trading platforms looking to facilitate on-chain transactions, trading, or decentralized finance (DeFi) activities. The exact recipient of the minted tokens has not been publicly specified, but such operations are standard practice for Circle to manage supply and liquidity. Market Context and Implications This injection of 250 million USDC comes at a time when the broader cryptocurrency market is showing [insert current market trend: e.g., renewed volatility, sideways movement, or bullish momentum]. Stablecoin supply metrics are closely watched by analysts as indicators of potential buying pressure and market liquidity. An increase in USDC supply often signals that capital is flowing into the crypto ecosystem, ready to be deployed. However, it can also simply reflect operational needs for settlement or cross-border transfers. The total market capitalization of USDC stands at over [insert current market cap if available] billion, maintaining its position behind Tether’s USDT. Impact on Ethereum Network and DeFi As an ERC-20 token, USDC is a cornerstone of the Ethereum-based DeFi ecosystem. Additional supply can improve liquidity on decentralized exchanges, lending protocols, and money markets. This minting event may also be tied to Circle’s ongoing efforts to expand USDC’s utility across various blockchains, including Solana, Avalanche, and Polygon, through its Cross-Chain Transfer Protocol (CCTP). Conclusion The minting of 250 million USDC by Circle is a routine but notable event that underscores the ongoing demand for regulated stablecoins in the digital asset market. While not inherently bullish or bearish, the move provides additional liquidity that could support trading and DeFi activity in the near term. Market participants will continue to monitor on-chain data for further movements from the Treasury address. FAQs Q1: Why does Circle mint new USDC tokens? Circle mints USDC in response to demand from users and institutions who deposit fiat currency (USD) into the system. Each minted token is backed by equivalent reserves, ensuring a 1:1 peg to the US dollar. Q2: Does minting USDC affect its price? No. USDC is designed to maintain a stable value of $1. Minting increases supply but is matched by an equal amount of fiat reserves held by Circle, so it does not directly impact the stablecoin’s price peg. Q3: How can I track USDC minting and burning? Blockchain explorers like Etherscan and tracking services like Whale Alert provide real-time data on USDC Treasury transactions. Circle also publishes monthly attestation reports on its reserve holdings. This post Circle Mints 250 Million USDC on Ethereum, Adding to Stablecoin Supply first appeared on BitcoinWorld .
20 May 2026, 16:30
Bitcoin Whales Are Accumulating Again: Are They Preparing for a Rally?
20 May 2026, 16:22
Galaxy Digital: The Most Interesting Identity Crisis In Crypto
Summary Galaxy Digital (GLXY) is at an inflection point, pivoting from a crypto platform to a data center infrastructure play anchored by the Helios campus. I assign a Hold rating, as my probability-weighted fair value of $22-26 per share implies 15-28% downside from the recent ~$30 price. The bull case hinges on flawless execution at Helios and CoreWeave's 15-year lease, but tenant concentration and credit risk are substantial. Galaxy's $61B headline revenue is misleading; true economic value is in the $426M adjusted gross profit, making SOTP analysis essential. Investment Thesis Rating: Hold On paper, Galaxy Digital is one of the more appealing names in the digital asset world. They've recently pivoted from a pure crypto platform into data center infrastructure business with a 1.4 Gigawatt "Helios" campus in West Texas. This data center is anchored by CoreWeave on a 15 year triple-net lease estimated at $16billion+ in contract revenue (both Phases). This long term vision resembles the early chapters of Equinix or Digital Realty by starting with one anchor tenant, proving the economics, and eventually evolving into a multi-tenant infrastructure platform trading at 20-25x EBITDA. The bull case does deserve some acknowledgment here. As of now CoreWeave has made payments on time and Galaxy has delivered the first 133 MW on budget and schedule in Q1 2026 . If you eliminate the CoreWeave credit risk and view the $900M EBITDA at face value, a modest 12x multiple on Helios by itself produces $7.8B of segment value. This covers most of Galaxy's current EV before considering anything related to the digital assets segment. This is a legitimate argument that should not be dismissed. However, the main challenge stems from the gap between vision and execution. Out of Galaxy's $61 billion in headline revenue, only $426 million of adjusted gross profit is from its digital assets platform. They carry $3.1 billion in debt against $911 million of hard cash and another $1.69 billion held in stablecoins with crypto correlations that are arguably not true cash or cash equivalents. Their sole infrastructure tenant (CoreWeave) holds an Altman Z-Score of 0.52. This places it firmly in the distress zone with $21 billion of debt and a $7.5 billion maturity wall coming up over the next few years. Although management may have experience in the digital asset space, they are yet to build or operate a data center of this scale. The result of this is what I view as one of the more interesting identity crises in crypto. Galaxy is currently being priced between an infrastructure compounder and a speculative crypto play, while the sum-of-the-parts analysis suggests neither valuation is quite right. My probability weighted fair value of ~$22-26 per share implies 15-28% downside from their recent closing price (May 8th) of ~$30. The downside is too steep to place Galaxy at a buy, but the bull case probability including a potential Phase 2 tenant, broader infrastructure re-rating, and CoreWeave performing on their 15 year lease is too real for a Sell. I see Galaxy Digital as a Hold. Galaxy Digital YTD price movement (Seeking Alpha) Business Overview Galaxy Digital was founded and is led by Mike Novogratz (CEO). The company operates across two segments, including digital assets and data center infrastructure. Understanding what each segment does is essential to avoiding some of the value traps that headline numbers can create. Novogratz is a former macro hedge fund manager at Fortress as well as a previous Goldman Sachs partner. He has been an extremely prominent voice regarding institutional adoption of cryptocurrency. However, his background in trading and capital markets, and not infrastructure development, is relevant when evaluating the Helios thesis. Digital Assets Platform Galaxy's core business is a diversified digital assets platform which spans trading, asset management, and investment banking. They have recently partnered with State Street to create the "SWEEP" tokenized money market fund platformed on the Solana blockchain. This is a recognizable institutional endorsement which validates their position in the tokenization space. The key detail regarding the digital assets segment is the revenue figure. Galaxy reported $61 billion of revenue in FY 2025 . However, in my opinion this number is less relevant when it comes to valuation. The vast majority of the $61 billion includes principal trading revenue, representing gross proceeds from buying and selling crypto positions. This includes mark-to-market swings on Galaxy's own book. The correct metric to look at here is adjusted gross profit, which strips the cost of digital assets sold and purely reflects their actual earnings. This figure is $426 million . Galaxy appears to be a top tier financial institution with the $61 billion headline while in reality the $426 million adjusted gross profit displays a mid cap platform with heavy crypto market cycle exposure. So why does this matter for Comps? Comparing Galaxy to Coinbase on revenue of $61B vs $6.6B highlights a misleading picture. Adjusted gross profit displays a more apples to apples metric and creates a more substantial gap in the opposite direction of $426M vs $4.9B. The valuation framework for Galaxy's digital assets segment should be initiated from the adjusted gross profit and not Revenue. Helios Data Center Infrastructure Now on to the transformational bet. Galaxy acquired the Helios site in West Texas and repositioned it from a pure crypto mining infrastructure play into an AI/HPC data center. Phase 1 consists of 800 MW leased to CoreWeave under a 15 year triple net agreement. This structure requires the tenant to be responsible for operating expenses, maintenance, and property taxes while Galaxy collects rent. Galaxy is projecting an annualized EBITDA of approximately $900 million from Phase 1 . This projection is a 90% margin when fully ramped. The initial 133 MW data hall was delivered on schedule to CoreWeave in Q1 2026, while revenue recognition began April 2026. The Q2 2026 earnings will represent the first quarter with meaningful infrastructure revenue contribution making it a key proof point for their capex thesis. Phase 2 would add an additional 830 MW of capacity. The company has ERCOT approval for the entire 1.4GW but has still not announced a second tenant making Phase 2 purely speculative. It is however worth noting that Galaxy is not the only company undergoing this pivot. The mining to data center conversion has become somewhat of a trend across the crypto space with companies like Marathon Digital, Hut 8, and Bitdeer exploring/executing similar transitions as they search for stable cash flows. The common thesis across the industry is that miners already have established power capacity, land, and power grid interconnection agreements which are some of the hardest aspects to secure for new data center buildouts. Galaxy's 1.4 GW Helios campus is one of the largest and most advanced of these conversions. CoreWeave: The Elephant in the Room Since CoreWeave is the sole tenant they require increased attention as one of the most important variables in the Galaxy thesis. They make up 100% of Helios Phase 1 projected revenue, 100% of the $900M annual EBITDA, and a majority if not the entirety of the infrastructure bull case as it relies on CoreWeave honoring the 15-year lease. If CoreWeave falters and Galaxy is unable to secure a second tenant, the infrastructure thesis deteriorates. The debt load is substantial. CoreWeave held approximately $21 billion of total debt as of its most recent filings along with a $7.5 billion maturity wall coming up over the next few years. S&P rates CoreWeave a B+ , which is very speculative territory in the same rating band as multiple stressed high-yield issuers. The Altman Z-Score (a metric of predicting bankruptcy risk) sits at approximately 0.52 and scores that fall below 1.81 are generally considered the distress zone. This highlights a meaningful probability of financial distress within two years. A median Z score is typically above 3.0 for investment grade companies. CDS spreads affirm concerns. Credit default swap spreads have significantly widened, reflecting the deteriorating credit trajectory view despite aggressive revenue growth. The bond market tends to serve as a the more reliable signal when there is a structural disagreement between bond and equity markets. The bull argument has footing but is still incomplete. Nvidia has backed CoreWeave as both an investor and GPU supplier. Contracts with hyperscalers do provide revenue visibility however, visibility of revenue and creditworthiness are not the same thing. The main question at hand is if CoreWeave is able to generate enough FCF to service the $21B of debt while simultaneously building out GPU capacity. The Altman Z-score discussed above suggests the math is tight. What's the impact of CoreWeave restructuring? Lease contracts are typically renegotiated to a lower rate or are entirely rejected. This could have an impact on Galaxy's $900M EBITDA projection by dropping it to ~$400M or less. Applying an 8x multiple to Restructured EBITDA, Helios Phase 1 would be worth roughly $3.2B instead of $7.8B. This represents an overall $4-7B of value destruction applied directly to Galaxy's equity. On approximately 410M diluted shares this would amount to roughly $10-17 per share of total value lost. The current stock price is implying a near-zero probability of this happening, which I believe is aggressive. Balance Sheet: The Cash Isn't What You Think Galaxy's balance sheet requires a careful review. They report approximately $2.6 billion of cash and liquid assets. This sounds comfortable against $3.1 billion of total debt however, only $911 million of this is "hard cash" in USD. the remaining $1.69B is in stablecoins like USDC and USDT as well as other digital asset positions including Bitcoin and Ethereum, adding to overall volatility and furthering the ties of Galaxy's financial health to crypto market conditions. Stablecoins are designed to maintain a 1:1 parity with the US dollar and typically do in normal markets. They are not insured by the FDIC and carry issuer risk. In a severe crypto downturn when Galaxy would need the most liquidity, stablecoin redemption pressure could create temporary price dislocation to USD or redemption delays. The loss of dollar linkage of USDT in May '22 is a reminder that stable is only a description and not a guarantee. Net debt varies depending on stablecoin inclusion (Excel) approximately $433M in exchangeable notes on the other hand is manageable in isolation. Galaxy is able to retire these notes outright with the hard cash they hold. However, this would cut their hard cash reserves roughly in half to $478M and leaving a smaller cushion regarding hard cash liquidity against $2.7B in debt remaining in the Helios ramp. The alternative here would be to refinance with the current unfavorable position of high yield credit spreads, ultimately increasing interest expense. They could also convert to equity but this would dilute beyond the existing 410M diluted shares used in our analysis. The $61 Billion Revenue Illusion This was briefly touched on above but deserves a deeper dive as it is a source of confusion in coverage on Galaxy. Galaxy Digital has a reported $61.3 billion of net revenue in FY 2025. By this measure, it would be a F100 sized company and even larger than Goldman Sachs's trading division. It is obviously not. The $61 billion overwhelmingly consists of principal trading activity. Their digital assets platform buys and sells crypto and reports the gross proceeds as revenue. The real economic value created is actually the adjusted gross profit of $426 million. Consider the analogy of a house flipper that buys a property for $400,000 and sells for $420,000. This could be reflected as $420K in revenue but only $20k in gross profit. No one would value this flipping business on the $420k. Applying this framework to Galaxy the $61B is the $420k from our house flipping scenario. Galaxy can't realistically be valued on $61B of revenue. This is worth the emphasis as any sell side notes that calculate EV/Revenue multiples using the $61B figure will produce extremely low multiples that synthetically make Galaxy appear very undervalued. This "undervalued" conclusion is based solely on an accounting artifact and not economic reality. Throughout this analysis, adjusted gross profit will serve as the top-line metric for the digital assets segment. Valuation: The Identity Crisis Galaxy doesn't fit into a single peer set, which is the core problem surrounding valuation. Comparing against crypto peers like Marathon Digital, Bitdeer , and Coinbase makes Galaxy look expensive due to the digital assets platform being small relative to the EV the market assigns. Comparing against data center infrastructure peers like Digital Realty , CoreWeave, and Equinix makes it look cheap, only if you accept Helios EBITDA materializes on schedule without tenant impairment. A sum of the parts analysis is the appropriate framework as it values each segment independently using multiples informed by its natural peer set. Against its crypto peers Galaxy appears to be expensive. Coinbase, the closest profitable comparison, trades at 7.7x EV/Adjusted Gross Profit while Bitdeer and Marathon Digital trade at 8.2x and 3.5x EV/Revenue respectively (both have negative EBITDA). Galaxy trades at 15x EV/Adjusted Gross Profit however, this multiple is slightly misleading as the numerator incorporates the EV attributed to Helios while the denominator captures only digital assets earnings. The crypto peer set applies a penalty for carrying infrastructure value that is not reflected in the earnings metric. Against their data center peers, the picture is inverted. Digital Realty sits at $21M/MW and 24x EBITDA while Equinix trades at roughly $44 million per MW of capacity and approximately 27x EBITDA. Even CoreWeave (which carries previously discussed credit concerns) trades at $36M/MW. The Helios campus at roughly $9M/MW is trading at a fraction of these benchmarks. Now this discount is partly warranted given the pre revenue status, unproven track record, and single tenant concentration, but it also implies there is very little credit assigned by the market to the infrastructure transformation. Neither peer set captures the full picture of Galaxy which is why analyzing each segment independently is necessary. Sum of the Parts SOTP framework focused on 3 scenarios (Excel) *Digital assets multiple is EV/AGP while Helios multiple is EV/EBITDA Scenario Analysis Bull Case: $47-51 In this scenario CoreWeave performs on the lease and the entire 800 MW is able to ramp on schedule. Helios EBITDA of $900 million flows through Galaxy's financials by late 2026. A secondary hyperscaler commits to Phase 2, ultimately transforming the infrastructure play into a multi tenant campus while unlocking over $5B of additional untapped value. The crypto market also has to cooperate with Bitcoin above $100k, lifting trading volumes and mark to market gains, while pushing adjusted gross profit toward $400M or greater on a quarterly basis. The market overall begins to valuate Galaxy on infrastructure multiples as the Helios campus EBITDA starts to dominate P&L. SOTP gives us $21.4B in EV minus $0.5B net debt bringing us to $20.9B in equity. $20.9B in equity divided by the 410M outstanding shares produces approximately $51 per share. Base Case: $20-24 Helios Phase 1 is behind schedule but still delivers. There is full deployment of the 800 MW but stretches into late 2026 or early 2027. CoreWeave still pays on time but the market begins to apply a discount given the B+ rating and heightened CDS spreads. Digital assets segment remains steady with adjusted gross profit in the $300-400M annual range and Phase 2 remains a speculative investment with no announced second tenant through 2026. Galaxy is forced to refinance the $433M December 2026 notes at unfavorable rates increasing interest expense but avoids a dilutive equity raise. Valuation purgatory essentially remains with too much infrastructure optionality to sell but too much speculative execution risk to buy. SOTP analysis displays roughly $10.2B EV minus $0.5-2.2B net debt, giving us $8.0-9.7B in equity over 410M shares, producing approximately $20-24 per share. Bear Case: $6-10 This scenario requires a restructuring or default from CoreWeave as the $7.5B maturity wall and $21B+ debt burden prove to be unstable. The $900M EBITDA projection breaks down to $400M or less with a renegotiation of the lease. At the same time, a crypto bear market extends with Bitcoin well below current levels and digital assets AGP turns flat or even negative. Galaxy's $911M of hard cash is not enough to comfortably service $3.1B of debt, forcing equity dilution with share count expansion. The stock is repriced closer to book value of $7.18 per share. SOTP on impaired basis gives us $4.5B EV minus $0.5-2.2B net debt, producing $2.3-4.0B of equity over 410M+ outstanding shares. This would bring us to an approximate price per share of $6-10. Probability-Weighted Fair Value Probability weighted value of share price (excel) Across these scenarios Galaxy's expected value sits well below the current stock price regardless of hard cash vs Stablecoin inclusion. The market is currently pricing near perfect execution on their infrastructure play with Helios along with a stable crypto backdrop. I believe this combination holds more risk than the current price is taking into account. Risks CoreWeave sole tenant risk. The entire infrastructure thesis for Galaxy depends on a single tenant that has a B+ credit rating , $21B of debt, and an Altman Z score of 0.52. A restructuring impairs a large bulk of Galaxy's enterprise value. Certain provisions in the event of a lease default may offer some level of protection however, in a true restructuring scenario, lessors normally recover cents on the dollar compared to the originally contracted terms Crypto market cycles. Any sustained compress in crypto trading volumes could result in mark to market losses along with a negative impact on adjusted gross profit. The digital assets segment also provides no floor in a down term, essentially meaning Galaxy has no pure diversification hedge during the ramp of Helios. Balance sheet leverage. $3.1B of total debt against $911M of cash (not including stable coins) is fairly aggressive. However, the $433M December 2026 Maturity of exchangeable notes can be retired from existing cash. The main problem here is doing so would reduce hard cash to roughly $478 million against ~$2.7B of debt remaining going into the Helios ramp. This obviously creates a way thinner buffer heading into a capital intensive infrastructure play, ultimately limiting financial flexibility especially if their other business segment softens simultaneously. Management's lack of infrastructure experience. Galaxy's leadership holds deep expertise in capital markets, digital assets, and financial services. The C-suite have come from firms like Goldman Sachs, Point72, and Oppenheimer professionals with strong track records in trading, strategic advisory, and asset management. Their main infrastructure hire has been an internal promotion to Head of Power who has previous experience as a power systems engineer at ERCOT, which is fairly relevant to managing a 1.4 GW grid connected campus. The main cause for concern here is that evaluating infrastructure companies from a banking or investment perspective is a completely different game from building and operating them at the scale of Helios. There is limited public visibility into whether Galaxy has put together a data center operations team beneath the executive level that can execute. Stablecoin liquidity risk. $1.69B of their cash position is focused in Stablecoins. With severe crypto dislocation, redemption pressures could result in a temporary impairment of Galaxy's access to liquidity especially in a moment they may need it the most. What changes the Rating Excel Summary Galaxy Digital is a very interesting company at a very real inflection point. Helios could be a transformative investment for the company with $900M of annualized EBITDA at 90% margins from just a single asset. Their recent State Street partnership also validates institutional credibility for their digital assets business segment. Although it's small relative to EV, their digital assets platform is still profitable and well diversified across asset management, trading, and advisory. On the other hand, there is definitely a gap between "is transformative" and "could be transformative" which will be measured in execution. I believe the current stock price is most likely sitting on the wrong side of this gap with the market currently pricing Galaxy somewhere between a crypto platform and an infrastructure compounder. The sum of the parts analysis applies a probability weighted fair value of roughly $22-26 per share which implies around 16-29% downside from current pricing. Galaxy should be seen as a "show me" story. Two quarters of on track infrastructure revenue, CoreWeave maintaining or improving financial stability, and a second tenant for Phase 2 could change my rating to a buy. Until then I view Galaxy as a hold, acknowledging the optionality, respecting the execution risk, and waiting for future data.
20 May 2026, 16:20
Australian Dollar Gains Ground Ahead of Crucial Employment Report
BitcoinWorld Australian Dollar Gains Ground Ahead of Crucial Employment Report The Australian Dollar edged higher against its major counterparts on Tuesday, as currency markets turned their focus to the upcoming release of domestic employment data. Traders are positioning cautiously ahead of the figures, which are expected to provide fresh clues on the trajectory of the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) monetary policy. Market Focus Shifts to Labor Market Strength The AUD/USD pair saw modest gains during the Asian and early European sessions, recovering from recent lows. The move reflects a wait-and-see approach among investors, who are assessing whether the Australian labor market remains tight enough to keep inflation pressures alive. A stronger-than-expected jobs report could reinforce the RBA’s cautious stance on rate cuts, lending support to the currency. Economists surveyed by major news agencies forecast the economy to have added around 20,000 new positions in the latest month, with the unemployment rate expected to hold steady near 4.1%. However, the range of estimates is wide, reflecting uncertainty about the pace of hiring in sectors such as services and construction. Implications for RBA Policy and the AUD The RBA has held its cash rate steady at 4.35% since November 2023, as it balances stubbornly high services inflation against a slowing economy. The central bank has repeatedly stated that it remains data-dependent, with the labor market a key variable in its decision-making. If employment growth surprises to the upside, markets may pare back expectations for a rate cut in the first half of the year, which would be supportive for the Australian Dollar. Conversely, a weak print could reignite bets on earlier easing, potentially dragging the currency lower. Broader Market Context The Australian Dollar’s move also comes against a backdrop of mixed global risk sentiment. Commodity prices, particularly iron ore and copper, have shown some stability, providing a floor for the resource-linked currency. Meanwhile, the US Dollar has been consolidating as traders await Federal Reserve commentary and key US inflation data later in the week. Technical analysts note that the AUD/USD pair is testing a key resistance zone near the 0.6500 level. A sustained break above this area could open the door for further gains, but much will depend on the employment data and its implications for interest rate differentials. Conclusion The Australian Dollar’s pre-data rally underscores the importance of the upcoming employment report as a near-term catalyst. For traders and investors, the numbers will not only shape the currency’s direction but also offer a critical read on the health of the Australian economy and the likely path of RBA policy. All eyes will be on the release scheduled for Thursday morning local time. FAQs Q1: Why is the Australian Dollar moving ahead of employment data? Currency markets often price in expectations before major economic releases. Traders adjust positions based on forecasts and risk appetite, which can cause the AUD to move in anticipation of the actual data. Q2: How does Australian employment data affect the RBA’s interest rate decisions? The RBA closely monitors the labor market for signs of overheating or weakness. Strong employment can fuel wage growth and inflation, making the central bank less likely to cut rates. Weak employment can increase the case for easing. Q3: What other factors are influencing the Australian Dollar right now? Beyond domestic data, the AUD is sensitive to commodity prices (especially iron ore), global risk sentiment, and the relative strength of the US Dollar. Federal Reserve policy expectations also play a significant role. This post Australian Dollar Gains Ground Ahead of Crucial Employment Report first appeared on BitcoinWorld .
