hodler

18 May 2026, 14:00

Why Ethereum Is About To Break The Bear Cycle And Rally To $8,000

Ethereum’s price weakness may be approaching a decisive turning point, according to a new technical analysis comparing the current ETH structure with previous market cycles. The pattern that formed before the 2017 parabolic run and again before the 2020 breakout is now reappearing in 2026, and the long-term chart is showing a structure that could be the start of a phase that pushes its price to as high as $8,000. A Cycle That Has Played Out Twice Before Ethereum has spent the past several months doing what most of the market has chosen to ignore: building. The leading altcoin has largely underperformed compared to Bitcoin, but the weekly chart is assembling the same structural sequence that preceded two of the biggest rallies in its price history. Related Reading: XRP Wave Count Remains Valid: Here Are The Levels To Watch Out For Technical analysis shows that ETH has followed a recognizable four-phase sequence in the previous two cycles: a prolonged downtrend, a compression phase and declining volatility, a breakout from the compression zone, and a vertical rally. In 2017, that cycle produced a gain of approximately 17,581%. The 2020 iteration, beginning from a similar compression structure, produced a rally of about 4,348% during the height of the 2021 bull run. The chart now presents a third instance of this structure. ETH bottomed around $1,800 in February 2026, a low that briefly broke below support before a reclaim brought price back above the structure. That sequence of a fake breakdown followed by a swift recovery and the formation of a higher low is precisely the kind of price behavior that preceded the two prior cycles. The current compression is tighter than those that came before it, with buyers defending support around $2,200 and sellers stopping rallies around $2,400, creating the pressure buildup that should end upin a rally. Ethereum Price Chart. Source: @BladeDefi On X Ethereum Breakout Is Coming The most interesting part of this setup is the difference between sentiment and structure. Right now, sentiment says ETH is weak. Ethereum has been underperforming Bitcoin, especially during periods when it struggled to hold momentum above the $2,000 region. However, if the 2026 compression resolves the same way as 2017 and 2020, the projection is that the expansion phase would produce a percentage gain materially smaller than those prior cycles yet still large enough to carry ETH well into the five-figure range. Related Reading: Ripple CEO Reveals What It Would Mean For XRP Holders If The Company Went Public The prediction is that Ethereum breaks out of its range below $2,400, continues this run to break out of the higher timeframe resistance around $4,900, and then reaches new price highs. This would see the Ethereum price reaching at least $8,000, which, from the current trading range near $2,200 represents a gain of about 264%. On the other hand, many market experts are predicting an Ethereum price rally above $10,000. Major incoming catalysts for such a rally include the Glamsterdam upgrade, which could triple Ethereum’s Layer 1 throughput and the expected passage of the CLARITY Act. Featured image created with Dall.E, chart from Tradingview.com

18 May 2026, 14:00

Zcash (ZEC) hits $550, slips below $530: Key levels before the next move

Zcash (ZEC) briefly pushed into the $550 region before slipping back below $520, leaving traders focused on whether this is a simple cooling phase or the start of a deeper correction. At the time of writing, ZEC was trading around $524.73, with a 24-hour range of $510.70 to $550.10. Resistance builds as ZEC struggles above $550 The $550 level has emerged as an important short-term barrier. Recent price action shows repeated attempts to hold above this region, but each push has been met with selling pressure that forces the price back into the mid-$510 range. This type of movement often signals that the market is still in a consolidation phase rather than a clean breakout trend. Across broader technical projections, the next major resistance zone is positioned near $560, followed by a stronger supply area between $600 and $642. A decisive daily close above $600 is widely viewed as the threshold that would confirm continuation of the broader uptrend. Until that happens, rallies are likely to face rejection as traders take profit near resistance. On the downside, immediate support is forming around the recent consolidation zone near $518, with a deeper support layer sitting at approximately $504, where the 100-day exponential moving average is located. A breakdown below this region would weaken the current bullish structure and expose the market to a broader retracement phase. Indicators show bullish bias, but short-term weakness is visible Despite the recent pullback, the overall technical structure remains tilted to the upside. Out of 23 tracked indicators , 11 are currently bullish, compared to 3 bearish signals and 9 neutral readings. This distribution suggests that the broader trend is still supported, even though momentum is not strongly directional in the short term. The daily chart shows 10 buy signals versus 2 sell signals, with ZEC trading above the 20-day, 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day EMAs. Zcash price analysis The only short-term resistance remains the 10-day EMA, which is currently acting as a ceiling during minor pullbacks. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits at 58.27, placing it firmly in neutral territory. This indicates that ZEC is neither overbought nor oversold, leaving room for movement in either direction depending on volume and market participation. However, there is a notable divergence between price action and momentum. ZEC has recorded a 7-day decline of 12.2%, even as indicator readings remain broadly positive. This type of divergence often reflects a market in transition, where trend strength is still intact but short-term conviction has weakened. Leverage-driven activity and uneven participation Recent data on trading behaviour highlights an important structural shift in Zcash’s market dynamics. Over the past several months, spot trading volume has been trending downward, while perpetual futures volume has continued to increase. This imbalance suggests that a growing share of price movement is being driven by leverage rather than sustained spot demand. This type of structure can create sharper price swings, particularly during periods of sentiment change. In previous cycles, similar conditions were observed near a lower high around $540, after which ZEC experienced a rapid decline toward approximately $185 within six weeks. The key factor in that move was a lack of spot demand strong enough to absorb leveraged positioning when momentum reversed. At present, open interest is showing signs of recovery after a recent pullback, indicating that traders are re-entering positions. However, without corresponding growth in spot volume, the sustainability of the current move remains closely tied to derivatives activity. Key levels defining the Zcash (ZEC) next move Zcash is now trading in a tightly defined range where the next directional move is likely to be decided by volume confirmation and breakout strength. The immediate resistance zone sits at $550 – $560, with the major breakout zone at $600 – $636. A sustained move above $600 would shift focus toward continuation of the broader uptrend. Looking at the current pullback, the altcoin must hold the short-term support zone around $518 – $504 to give the bullish moment a chance of resumption. A drop below $504 would increase the risk of a deeper correction phase. The post Zcash (ZEC) hits $550, slips below $530: Key levels before the next move appeared first on Invezz

18 May 2026, 13:55

Over 7.8 Million Bitcoin Held at a Loss as Price Hovers Near $76,700, Glassnode Reports

BitcoinWorld Over 7.8 Million Bitcoin Held at a Loss as Price Hovers Near $76,700, Glassnode Reports More than 7.8 million Bitcoin (BTC) are currently held at a loss, according to data from on-chain analytics firm Glassnode. With the leading cryptocurrency trading near $76,700, the firm noted that a substantial volume of BTC was acquired near recent short-term price peaks, leaving those positions underwater. Glassnode Data Reveals Extent of Unrealized Losses Glassnode’s analysis highlights that the 7.8 million BTC figure represents a significant portion of the circulating supply. The firm explained that these coins were purchased by investors during periods of higher prices, likely during the market’s recent upward swings. For Bitcoin to mount a sustained structural rally, the market must first absorb the selling pressure emanating from these loss-holding positions. Market Implications and Path to Recovery The data suggests that a large cohort of traders and investors are currently sitting on unrealized losses. This creates a potential overhang of supply, as any price recovery toward the cost basis of these holders could trigger selling. Historically, markets have needed to ‘clear’ such overhead supply before establishing a new uptrend. The current price action around $76,700 is being closely watched by analysts as a key level where this absorption process may play out. What This Means for Bitcoin Investors For market participants, the Glassnode data serves as a reminder that price rallies are often preceded by periods of consolidation where weak hands are shaken out. The presence of a large volume of underwater positions does not guarantee a further decline, but it does indicate that any recovery may face resistance. Investors should monitor on-chain metrics such as spent output profit ratio (SOPR) and exchange inflows for signs that selling pressure is diminishing. Conclusion The on-chain data from Glassnode provides a factual snapshot of the current Bitcoin market structure. While the 7.8 million BTC held at a loss represents a challenge for immediate price appreciation, it also sets the stage for a potential supply squeeze once the overhead resistance is absorbed. The coming weeks will be critical in determining whether the market can digest this supply and lay the groundwork for a new rally. FAQs Q1: What does it mean for Bitcoin to be held at a loss? It means that the current market price of Bitcoin is lower than the price at which those coins were purchased, resulting in an unrealized loss for the holder. Q2: How does Glassnode track Bitcoin held at a loss? Glassnode uses on-chain data to analyze the cost basis of Bitcoin addresses. By comparing the price at which coins last moved to the current market price, the firm estimates the volume of supply in an unrealized loss. Q3: Could this selling pressure push Bitcoin prices lower? It is possible, but not guaranteed. The market may absorb the selling pressure through new demand, or prices could decline further if selling intensifies. The outcome depends on broader market sentiment and macroeconomic factors. This post Over 7.8 Million Bitcoin Held at a Loss as Price Hovers Near $76,700, Glassnode Reports first appeared on BitcoinWorld .

18 May 2026, 13:52

BlackRock accelerates Bitcoin selloff amid bearish sentiment

BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust ( IBIT ) has accelerated its Bitcoin ( BTC ) sell-off on May 18, after ending its six consecutive weeks of cash inflows. On Monday, BlackRock’s IBIT deposited 2,221 BTC, valued at about $170.59 million at press time, to Coinbase Prime, according to on-chain data from Arkham Intelligence , analyzed by Finbold. IBIT’s cash flow on May 18. Source: Arkham IBIT recorded a net cash inflow of $317.21 million last week, as Finbold reported , bringing its six-week buying spree to an end after accumulating nearly $3 billion in BTC. As such, BlackRock’s ETF holds Bitcoin valued at about $64.63 billion at the time of publication. IBIT’s weekly cash flow. Source: SoSoValue Bitcoin price falls amid IBIT sell-off The shift in IBIT accumulation has coincided with Bitcoin price rejection at a crucial supply level around $82,200, as Finbold noted . Notably, BlackRock’s investors could have traded the sell-the-news event for the Clarity Act, a proposed federal regulation aimed at legalizing crypto assets, which advanced the Senate Banking Committee in a 15-9 bipartisan vote. The flagship coin declined 4.61% over the past seven days to trade at about $77,410 at the time of publication. Butcoin’s market cap reduced by. $22.3 billion, over the past 24 hours, to hover about $1.5 trillion. BTC/USD 7-day chart. Source: Finbold What’s next for BTC? As BlackRock’s investors accelerated the Bitcoin sell-off, BTC’s near-term continued to signal bearish sentiment. After a strong rejection at a sell wall around $82,200 in the recent past, BTC price could drop below $72,000 to retest the lower boundary of the multi-week rising channel, based on analysis shared by Aksel Kibar, an ex-fund manager. BTC/USD 1-day chart. Source: TradinView However, if IBIT investors renew their accumulation pace in the near future, Bitcoin price could rebound.​ The post BlackRock accelerates Bitcoin selloff amid bearish sentiment appeared first on Finbold .

18 May 2026, 13:50

USD/CHF Bulls Hold Firm: 0.7850 Support Key to Sustained Uptrend

BitcoinWorld USD/CHF Bulls Hold Firm: 0.7850 Support Key to Sustained Uptrend The USD/CHF pair continues to demonstrate bullish resilience, with the 0.7850 level emerging as a critical floor that buyers have successfully defended in recent trading sessions. This price action suggests that market sentiment remains tilted in favor of the US dollar against the Swiss franc, despite intermittent pressure from risk-off flows and European economic data. Technical Setup: Support Holding Firm From a technical perspective, the 0.7850 mark has acted as a reliable support zone over the past week, coinciding with the 50-day simple moving average (SMA). Each test of this level has attracted buying interest, pushing the pair back toward the 0.7900 resistance area. The repeated defense of this support indicates that bullish momentum is not yet exhausted. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily chart hovers near 55, suggesting room for further upside before entering overbought territory. Meanwhile, the MACD histogram remains positive, though its slope has flattened slightly, hinting at a potential consolidation phase before the next directional move. Fundamental Drivers: Divergent Monetary Policy Outlook The broader bullish case for USD/CHF rests on the diverging monetary policy trajectories between the Federal Reserve and the Swiss National Bank (SNB). The Fed has maintained a cautious stance, signaling that interest rate cuts are not imminent as inflation remains above target. In contrast, the SNB has already begun easing, cutting its policy rate in March and signaling further accommodation if needed. This policy divergence makes the US dollar more attractive on a yield basis, supporting capital flows into USD-denominated assets. Additionally, recent US economic data, including stronger-than-expected retail sales and industrial production figures, have reinforced the narrative of a resilient US economy. Key Levels to Watch Traders should monitor the following price thresholds in the coming sessions: Support: 0.7850 (immediate), 0.7800 (psychological and 100-day SMA) Resistance: 0.7900 (near-term), 0.7950 (February high), 0.8000 (key psychological barrier) A sustained break above 0.7900 would likely accelerate bullish momentum toward the 0.7950 region. Conversely, a daily close below 0.7850 could signal a shift in sentiment, exposing the 0.7800 handle. Why This Matters for Traders For forex traders, the USD/CHF pair offers a unique window into relative economic strength between the US and Switzerland. The pair is often viewed as a barometer of global risk sentiment, with the Swiss franc attracting safe-haven bids during periods of market stress. The current resilience of USD/CHF suggests that risk appetite remains intact, even as geopolitical uncertainties persist. Understanding these technical and fundamental dynamics helps traders position themselves for potential breakout opportunities or manage risk around key support levels. Conclusion The USD/CHF bulls remain in control as long as the 0.7850 support holds. The combination of a supportive technical structure and favorable monetary policy divergence provides a foundation for further gains, though a break below this level would warrant caution. Traders should watch for a decisive move above 0.7900 to confirm the next leg higher. FAQs Q1: What is the significance of the 0.7850 level for USD/CHF? The 0.7850 level is a key technical support zone, aligning with the 50-day SMA. It has been tested multiple times recently and held, indicating strong buyer interest and a potential floor for the pair. Q2: How does SNB policy affect USD/CHF? The Swiss National Bank has adopted a more dovish stance than the Fed, cutting rates in March. This policy divergence makes the US dollar more attractive on a yield basis, supporting USD/CHF upside. Q3: What could cause a breakdown below 0.7850? A daily close below 0.7850 could be triggered by a sudden risk-off event, such as geopolitical tensions or disappointing US economic data, which would boost safe-haven demand for the Swiss franc. This post USD/CHF Bulls Hold Firm: 0.7850 Support Key to Sustained Uptrend first appeared on BitcoinWorld .

18 May 2026, 13:45

Bitcoin (BTC) Recovery Unlikely Until Toxic Supply Is Absorbed: Data

Bitcoin (BTC) plunged below $77,000 on Monday following a fresh round of threats directed at Iran by US President Donald Trump. Panic selling is accelerating across the market as major profitability metrics drop below critical levels. New data now suggests that a rapid V-shaped recovery remains unlikely. Deepening Bitcoin Panic Selling Bitcoin’s latest decline is developing into a broader market crisis rather than a routine short-term correction, as on-chain data points to a cascading sell-off driven by leverage liquidations and growing fear across the spot market. According to CryptoQuant data, long-term holders who accumulated Bitcoin between six and 12 months ago are now under heavy pressure, as their average realized entry price sits near $110,851. Following the recent market drop, many of these investors moved into deep unrealized losses, triggering a wave of exchange inflows since May 14. The crypto analytics platform’s stats reveal that the Spent Output Age Bands (SOAB) ratio for 6-12 month coins surged to 10.54%, which is far above its normal level below 1%, and indicated large-scale capitulation from long-term holders. Such spikes have historically reflected investors realizing large losses and exiting positions, which ends up increasing spot-market selling pressure. The weakness then spread to short-term traders. While most exchange inflows typically come from coins held for less than one day, profitability metrics showed increasing panic-driven selling activity. On May 16, the Short-Term Holder SOPR fell to 0.994 while adjusted SOPR dropped to 0.996, both below the 1.0 level that usually separates profit-taking from loss realization. Even on May 17, STH-SOPR remained weak at 0.999. CryptoQuant said this confirms that many short-term investors are now selling at losses rather than taking profits. The firm warned that a quick V-shaped recovery remains unlikely until “toxic” supply is absorbed and market sentiment stabilizes. Deeper Correction Ahead The growing market stress has also strengthened bearish views among several crypto analysts. Doctor Profit, for one, warned yet again that a major correction may be approaching soon. Mr. Wall Street also said Bitcoin could see a much deeper decline after its recent 10% pullback. The commentator claimed that bullish sentiment has already faded and repeated his view that the crypto asset may eventually drop to the $45,000 level. The post Bitcoin (BTC) Recovery Unlikely Until Toxic Supply Is Absorbed: Data appeared first on CryptoPotato .