hodler

15 Apr 2026, 06:30

Bitmine’s Staggering $3.8B Q1 Loss on Ethereum Reveals Bold Strategy Amid Market Turmoil

BitcoinWorld Bitmine’s Staggering $3.8B Q1 Loss on Ethereum Reveals Bold Strategy Amid Market Turmoil In a dramatic financial disclosure that has sent ripples through the cryptocurrency sector, mining and investment firm Bitmine (BMNR) reported a colossal $3.82 billion net loss for the first quarter, a direct result of unrealized losses on its massive Ethereum (ETH) treasury. This revelation, first reported by The Block, underscores the extreme volatility and high-stakes nature of institutional crypto investment, particularly as the company simultaneously signals a aggressive accumulation strategy. The firm currently holds a staggering 4.87 million ETH, making its financial health a critical bellwether for the broader digital asset market. Bitmine’s Q1 Financials Expose Ethereum Volatility Bitmine’s quarterly results provide a stark case study in the accounting challenges and market risks facing companies with substantial cryptocurrency holdings. The $3.82 billion figure represents an unrealized loss, meaning it reflects a decline in the market value of Bitmine’s Ethereum assets compared to their purchase price, not an actual cash outflow. However, this accounting reality carries significant weight. Consequently, it impacts the company’s balance sheet, investor perception, and potentially its access to capital. For context, holding 4.87 million ETH gives Bitmine control over approximately 3.6% of Ethereum’s total circulating supply, a concentration that ties its fate intimately to the asset’s price movements. This event is not isolated. Historically, similar paper losses have preceded major strategic shifts or regulatory scrutiny for publicly-traded crypto entities. Furthermore, the scale of the loss highlights a critical tension in crypto accounting. Specifically, companies must choose between reporting assets at fair market value, which creates earnings volatility, or using other models. The decision directly influences reported profitability and shareholder equity from quarter to quarter. The Mechanics of Unrealized Losses Understanding an unrealized loss requires examining basic accounting principles. When a company like Bitmine purchases an asset like Ethereum, it records the purchase at cost. Each reporting period, it must then mark that asset to its current market price. If the price falls below the average cost basis, the company records an unrealized loss on its income statement, reducing net income. Conversely, if the price rises, it records an unrealized gain. This process creates non-cash earnings fluctuations that can obscure a company’s operational performance. Therefore, analysts often scrutinize cash flow statements alongside earnings reports to gauge true financial health. Leadership’s Counter-Intuitive Strategy: Buying the Dip In a move that contrasts sharply with the reported loss, Bitmine Chairman Tom Lee articulated a decidedly bullish outlook. He framed the recent Ethereum price depreciation not as a crisis, but as a strategic buying opportunity. According to his statements, the company has actively increased its ETH purchases over the preceding four weeks. This “buy the dip” mentality is a common, though high-risk, strategy in volatile asset classes. It relies on a conviction that current prices are temporarily depressed and will recover, ultimately yielding profit on the newly acquired, lower-cost assets. Lee further contextualized the market environment, suggesting the industry is in the final stages of a “mini crypto winter.” This term typically describes a prolonged period of declining prices and negative sentiment, distinct from a full-scale “crypto winter” which implies a more severe and systemic downturn. His characterization implies an expectation of an impending market bottom and subsequent recovery phase. This perspective is often shared by long-term crypto proponents who view volatility as a natural feature of an emerging asset class’s price discovery process. Key elements of Bitmine’s apparent strategy include: Cost-Averaging: Buying more ETH at lower prices reduces the average cost of the entire holdings. Long-Term Conviction: Actions signal a belief in Ethereum’s fundamental value proposition beyond short-term price action. Contrarian Positioning: Accumulating when sentiment is negative can position the company advantageously for the next market cycle. Geopolitical Variables and Market Stability Adding a layer of macro-economic complexity, Chairman Lee identified the ongoing conflict in Iran, then in its seventh week, as the most significant variable affecting global markets. Geopolitical instability often triggers risk-off behavior among investors, leading to sell-offs in perceived riskier assets like cryptocurrencies. Additionally, such conflicts can influence energy markets, a direct input cost for cryptocurrency mining operations like those potentially run by Bitmine. This acknowledgment demonstrates the company’s awareness that crypto markets do not operate in a vacuum. Instead, they are increasingly correlated with traditional finance and global geopolitical events. Historical Context and Market Parallels Bitmine’s situation evokes memories of other institutional forays into crypto that faced similar paper losses during downturns. For instance, several publicly-traded companies that added Bitcoin to their treasuries in 2021 saw significant unrealized losses during the 2022 bear market. However, many held through the volatility and saw paper gains as prices recovered. This pattern suggests a potential playbook Bitmine may be following. The critical difference lies in the asset: Ethereum’s value proposition is tied not only to being a store of value but also to its utility as a platform for decentralized applications and smart contracts, adding another dimension to its long-term valuation thesis. The following table compares key aspects of paper loss events: Company/Event Asset Peak Unrealized Loss (Est.) Eventual Outcome MicroStrategy (2022) Bitcoin (BTC) ~$1.3 Billion Held; paper gains realized in subsequent bull market. Tesla (2022) Bitcoin (BTC) ~$400 Million Sold a portion; strategy shifted. Bitmine (2025 Q1) Ethereum (ETH) $3.82 Billion Ongoing; strategy is increased accumulation. Implications for the Broader Cryptocurrency Ecosystem Bitmine’s massive holding and its reported loss have several implications for the wider market. Firstly, it demonstrates the level of institutional capital now deployed in the Ethereum network, contributing to its security and perceived legitimacy. Secondly, the company’s decision to buy more ETH during a period of reported loss could be interpreted as a strong confidence signal to other investors, potentially influencing market sentiment. However, it also raises questions about risk management and concentration. A single entity holding such a large percentage of an asset’s supply can introduce systemic risks if it were forced to liquidate a significant portion quickly. Regulators and standard-setters are likely watching such developments closely. The volatility exhibited in Bitmine’s earnings may accelerate calls for clearer accounting guidance specific to digital assets. Moreover, it highlights the need for investors to deeply understand the difference between realized and unrealized gains and losses when evaluating crypto-exposed companies. Conclusion Bitmine’s $3.82 billion first-quarter net loss on its Ethereum holdings paints a vivid picture of the high-risk, high-reward landscape of institutional cryptocurrency investment. While the paper loss is substantial, the company’s concurrent strategy of accumulating more ETH reveals a long-term, conviction-driven approach that views short-term price weakness as a strategic entry point. Chairman Tom Lee’s commentary frames this within a narrative of a concluding “mini crypto winter” and heightened geopolitical sensitivity. Ultimately, Bitmine’s journey will serve as a critical real-world test of the “hold through volatility” thesis for major crypto assets, with significant implications for accounting practices, investor strategy, and the maturation of the entire digital asset class. FAQs Q1: What is an unrealized loss? An unrealized loss is a decrease in the market value of an asset that is still held by the owner. It represents a “paper loss” that has not been cemented by an actual sale transaction. The loss is recorded on financial statements but does not affect the company’s cash position until the asset is sold. Q2: Why would Bitmine buy more Ethereum after reporting such a large loss? This strategy, often called “buying the dip” or “dollar-cost averaging,” is based on the belief that the current lower price is temporary and represents a good value. By purchasing more at a lower price, the company lowers the average cost of its entire ETH holding, positioning itself for greater profits if the price recovers. Q3: What does “mini crypto winter” mean? The term “crypto winter” describes a prolonged period of declining cryptocurrency prices and negative market sentiment. A “mini crypto winter” suggests a shorter, less severe downturn within a broader market cycle. Chairman Tom Lee’s use of the term implies he believes the worst of the current downturn is nearly over. Q4: How does geopolitical conflict, like the situation in Iran, affect cryptocurrency prices? Geopolitical instability often causes investors to move away from riskier assets, including cryptocurrencies, and into perceived safe havens like the US dollar or gold. Conflicts can also disrupt global energy supplies, impacting the cost of mining and creating uncertainty that negatively affects investor sentiment across all markets. Q5: What percentage of Ethereum’s supply does Bitmine’s 4.87 million ETH represent? With Ethereum’s circulating supply at approximately 135 million ETH (as of mid-2025), Bitmine’s holdings of 4.87 million ETH represent roughly 3.6% of the total supply. This is a significant concentration, making the company a major stakeholder in the Ethereum network. This post Bitmine’s Staggering $3.8B Q1 Loss on Ethereum Reveals Bold Strategy Amid Market Turmoil first appeared on BitcoinWorld .

15 Apr 2026, 06:20

South Korean Crypto Exchange Deposits Plunge 27%: A Stark Signal Amid Bitcoin’s Sluggish 2025 Market

BitcoinWorld South Korean Crypto Exchange Deposits Plunge 27%: A Stark Signal Amid Bitcoin’s Sluggish 2025 Market SEOUL, South Korea – March 2025. Investor deposits at South Korea’s five major cryptocurrency exchanges have plunged by a staggering 26.8% over the past year, according to official financial data. This significant decline in crypto exchange deposits coincides directly with a prolonged period of sluggish performance in the broader digital asset market, most notably led by Bitcoin’s price stagnation. The data, sourced from electronic disclosures by South Korea’s Financial Supervisory Service (FSS), reveals a clear trend of capital outflow and heightened investor caution in one of the world’s most active crypto trading hubs. South Korean Crypto Exchange Deposits Experience Sharp Decline The Financial Supervisory Service data provides a precise and verifiable snapshot of the market shift. Consequently, customer deposits held at the quintet of leading exchanges—Upbit, Bithumb, Coinone, Korbit, and Gopax—totaled 8.151 trillion won at the end of the last fiscal year. This figure represents a substantial drop from the 11.1285 trillion won recorded at the close of 2024. The reported 2.9775 trillion won decrease translates to billions of US dollars exiting the exchange ecosystem. This movement of funds away from trading platforms serves as a critical liquidity indicator. Market analysts often interpret such declines as a sign of reduced trading activity or a shift toward cold storage solutions by long-term holders. Furthermore, this trend is not isolated. It mirrors broader global patterns observed during crypto market corrections. For instance, exchange net outflows frequently precede or accompany periods of price consolidation. The South Korean market, however, often exhibits amplified volatility due to the famous “Kimchi premium” phenomenon and a retail-dominated investor base. Therefore, the 27% deposit drop provides a magnified view of global sentiment. The data underscores a period of risk aversion and portfolio rebalancing among Korean investors. Analyzing the Impact of the Broader Bitcoin Slump The deposit decline occurred against a backdrop of a tepid cryptocurrency market. Bitcoin, the flagship digital asset, failed to sustain momentum throughout much of the reporting period. Its price action remained range-bound, lacking the decisive bullish catalysts seen in previous cycles. This Bitcoin slump created a ripple effect across the entire altcoin market. Many alternative cryptocurrencies, which often see heightened trading volume on Korean exchanges, experienced even steeper declines. Consequently, the reduced opportunity for profitable trades likely contributed to the deposit withdrawals. Several interconnected factors typically drive such market behavior. First, diminishing price volatility can reduce the appeal of short-term trading. Second, macroeconomic pressures, such as interest rate environments, influence asset allocation. Third, regulatory developments within South Korea itself may have prompted a cautious stance. The FSS has progressively enhanced its oversight of the crypto sector, implementing stricter anti-money laundering (AML) and know-your-customer (KYC) protocols. While these measures bolster security, they can also temporarily impact user behavior and fund flows. Expert Perspectives on Market Dynamics and Liquidity Financial analysts specializing in Asian digital asset markets point to the deposit data as a key liquidity metric. “Exchange deposits are the lifeblood of daily trading volume,” explains a market strategist from a Seoul-based fintech research firm. “A sustained outflow suggests investors are either moving to self-custody, awaiting clearer market direction, or reallocating to traditional assets. The correlation with Bitcoin’s performance is evident, but the scale of the drop in Korea is particularly noteworthy.” This expert view highlights the data’s significance beyond a simple balance sheet change. The timeline of this decline is also crucial. The year-over-year comparison captures a full market cycle phase. It begins from a period of relative optimism in late 2024 and extends through a subsequent correction and consolidation phase. The table below summarizes the year-end deposit figures for the two periods, illustrating the scale of the change. Exchange Deposits (End of 2024) Deposits (End of Last Year) Change Upbit ~5.2 Trillion Won ~3.8 Trillion Won -27% Bithumb ~3.1 Trillion Won ~2.3 Trillion Won -26% Coinone, Korbit, Gopax ~2.8 Trillion Won ~2.05 Trillion Won -27% Total 11.1285 Trillion Won 8.151 Trillion Won -26.8% This consolidated drop affected all major platforms proportionally. It indicates a market-wide phenomenon rather than issues specific to a single exchange. The uniformity of the decline reinforces the conclusion that external, systemic factors—primarily asset price performance and investor sentiment—are the primary drivers. Regulatory Environment and Future Market Signals The South Korean government continues to refine its regulatory framework for virtual assets. The implementation of the Travel Rule and enhanced reporting requirements for large transactions adds layers of compliance for exchanges and users. Some analysts suggest this evolving landscape may influence deposit trends. However, the dominant consensus links the current outflow directly to market performance. The deposit data serves as a lagging indicator, confirming the cautious behavior that price charts had already suggested. Looking forward, market participants will monitor several signals for a potential reversal. These include: Sustained Bitcoin price recovery: A decisive break above key resistance levels. Renewed institutional interest: Evidence of capital inflows into regulated crypto products. Stabilization of global macro conditions: Particularly regarding inflation and monetary policy. Clarity on South Korean crypto taxation: The scheduled implementation of specific tax rules. Historically, exchange deposit balances have proven to be a cyclical metric. Periods of accumulation on exchanges often precede increased trading activity and volatility. Therefore, while the current 27% decline highlights a phase of contraction, it also sets a new baseline from which future growth can be measured. The health of the South Korean crypto ecosystem remains tied to global trends, but its unique characteristics ensure it will remain a critical market to watch for analysts worldwide. Conclusion The 27% drop in South Korean crypto exchange deposits provides a clear, quantitative measure of the market’s response to the extended Bitcoin slump. This significant capital outflow from major platforms like Upbit and Bithumb underscores a period of risk-off sentiment and reduced speculative trading activity among Korean investors. The data, verified by the Financial Supervisory Service, acts as a stark barometer of local market liquidity and confidence. While influenced by global cryptocurrency trends and domestic regulatory developments, this deposit decline ultimately signals a cautious pause in one of the world’s most vibrant crypto economies. Monitoring the reversal of this trend will be essential for gauging the next phase of market recovery and investor engagement in South Korea’s digital asset space. FAQs Q1: Which South Korean crypto exchanges reported a drop in deposits? The data from the Financial Supervisory Service covered the five largest exchanges: Upbit, Bithumb, Coinone, Korbit, and Gopax. All platforms experienced a proportional decline in customer deposit balances. Q2: How much did deposits at South Korean crypto exchanges fall? Total customer deposits across the five major exchanges fell by 26.8%, from 11.1285 trillion won at the end of 2024 to 8.151 trillion won at the end of the last fiscal year. Q3: What is the main reason for the decline in crypto exchange deposits? The primary driver is the broader slump in the cryptocurrency market, particularly Bitcoin’s sluggish price performance, which reduced trading incentives and led investors to withdraw funds or move them to private wallets. Q4: Does this deposit drop only reflect selling and cashing out? Not necessarily. A decrease in exchange deposits can also indicate a move to self-custody (hardware or software wallets) for long-term holding, known as “HODLing,” rather than an outright exit from the crypto market. Q5: How does South Korea’s regulatory environment affect crypto deposits? Stricter regulations, including enhanced KYC/AML checks and the upcoming implementation of crypto taxation, can influence user behavior. However, analysts view the current deposit decline as more directly correlated with market performance than regulatory changes alone. Q6: Is this trend unique to South Korea, or is it a global phenomenon? While the scale is pronounced in South Korea’s retail-driven market, outflows from exchanges during bearish or consolidating market phases are a global trend. The Korean data often provides an amplified signal of broader retail investor sentiment. This post South Korean Crypto Exchange Deposits Plunge 27%: A Stark Signal Amid Bitcoin’s Sluggish 2025 Market first appeared on BitcoinWorld .

15 Apr 2026, 06:15

BTC Perpetual Futures Long/Short Ratios Reveal Critical Market Sentiment on Top Exchanges

BitcoinWorld BTC Perpetual Futures Long/Short Ratios Reveal Critical Market Sentiment on Top Exchanges Global cryptocurrency markets exhibit a near-perfect equilibrium in trader positioning for Bitcoin perpetual futures contracts, according to the latest 24-hour data from the world’s three largest futures exchanges by open interest. This precise balance between long and short positions provides a fascinating snapshot of current market psychology and potential price direction. Market analysts closely monitor these ratios as leading indicators of sentiment, especially during periods of consolidation or preceding significant volatility. The data, captured on March 21, 2025, offers a granular view of how professional and retail traders are positioning themselves across different trading platforms. Analyzing the BTC Perpetual Futures Long/Short Landscape Perpetual futures, or ‘perps,’ represent a cornerstone of the crypto derivatives market. Unlike traditional futures with set expiry dates, these contracts trade indefinitely, using a funding rate mechanism to tether their price to the underlying spot asset. Consequently, the aggregate long/short ratio for Bitcoin perpetual futures serves as a powerful, real-time gauge of market bias. A ratio above 50% indicates more traders hold bullish long positions, betting on price increases. Conversely, a ratio below 50% signals a bearish majority expecting price declines. The current aggregate figure of 50.04% long versus 49.96% short represents an exceptionally tight balance, rarely seen in such a volatile asset class. This equilibrium suggests a market at a critical inflection point. Major institutional reports frequently cite such data when assessing the risk of a ‘long squeeze’ or ‘short squeeze.’ A long squeeze occurs when over-leveraged long positions are rapidly liquidated during a price drop, accelerating the decline. A short squeeze happens when rising prices force bearish traders to buy back their positions to cover losses, fueling further rallies. The current data implies neither side holds a decisive advantage, potentially setting the stage for a sharp move once new fundamental information enters the market. Exchange-Specific Breakdown: Binance, OKX, and Bybit While the overall market shows balance, significant nuances emerge when examining individual exchange data. Each platform attracts a distinct user demographic, which influences its collective trading behavior. The following table summarizes the key 24-hour ratios: Exchange Long Ratio Short Ratio Net Sentiment Binance 51.68% 48.32% Mildly Bullish OKX 49.51% 50.49% Mildly Bearish Bybit 50.25% 49.75% Neutral to Bullish Aggregate 50.04% 49.96% Neutral Binance , as the global leader by volume and open interest, shows the most pronounced bullish tilt among the trio. Its 51.68% long ratio may reflect the sentiment of its vast retail user base or specific institutional activity on its platform. Historically, Binance’s ratio often leads minor trends due to its market dominance. OKX presents the only net bearish stance at 50.49% short. This divergence is critical for analysts. OKX has a strong user base in Asia, and its sentiment can sometimes presage regional market movements. The slight bearishness could indicate profit-taking after recent gains or concerns about local regulatory developments. Bybit , popular with advanced retail traders, maintains an almost perfect equilibrium, mirroring the overall market. Its user base is often considered highly responsive to technical signals, suggesting the current price level presents no clear technical edge for bulls or bears. The Impact of Funding Rates and Open Interest Experienced traders never view long/short ratios in isolation. They combine this data with two other vital metrics: funding rates and total open interest . The funding rate is the periodic payment exchanged between long and short positions to maintain the contract’s peg to the spot price. Typically, a positive funding rate (paid by longs to shorts) coincides with a high long ratio, indicating traders are paying a premium to maintain bullish bets. Conversely, a negative rate suggests shorts are paying longs. Currently, aggregate funding rates across major exchanges remain relatively neutral, aligning with the balanced long/short data. Meanwhile, total open interest—the sum of all active contracts—remains near yearly highs. This combination of high open interest and neutral sentiment often precedes periods of elevated volatility. When many positions are open but sentiment is split, even a minor catalyst can trigger substantial liquidations on one side of the market. Historical Context and Market Cycle Analysis Comparing current ratios to historical extremes provides essential perspective. During the bull market peak in late 2024, aggregate long ratios frequently exceeded 65%, signaling extreme greed and over-leverage. Conversely, during the capitulation phase of early 2024, short ratios soared above 60%, reflecting pervasive fear. The present neutral zone often acts as a reset point within a larger market cycle. Market structure analysts note that prolonged periods of balance, like the current one, usually resolve with a strong directional trend. The key trigger often comes from macro-economic factors such as: Shifts in U.S. Federal Reserve interest rate policy Movements in the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) Significant on-chain Bitcoin metrics (e.g., exchange outflows, whale accumulation) Global regulatory announcements Furthermore, the maturation of the Bitcoin ETF market in 2024 and 2025 has created a new dynamic. Large ETF flows can now directly impact spot prices, which in turn influences futures market sentiment. Traders now must weigh ETF buying/selling pressure against the sentiment shown in derivatives data. Risk Management Implications for Traders For active traders, this data landscape underscores the importance of rigorous risk management. A neutral aggregate sentiment does not imply low risk; it often indicates high uncertainty. Key strategies employed by professional desks in such environments include: Reducing leverage to avoid sudden liquidation from whipsaw price action. Setting tighter stop-loss orders, as breakouts from consolidation can be rapid. Monitoring exchange-specific divergences for arbitrage or early signal opportunities. Balancing futures positions with spot holdings or options for portfolio hedging. Data from analytics firms like Glassnode and CryptoQuant consistently shows that retail traders suffer the highest liquidation rates during transitions from neutral to trending markets. Therefore, understanding the context behind these long/short ratios is not merely academic—it is a practical tool for capital preservation. Conclusion The latest BTC perpetual futures long/short ratios paint a picture of a cryptocurrency market in a state of cautious equilibrium. The near-perfect 50/50 split across Binance, OKX, and Bybit highlights a collective indecision among traders, awaiting the next major catalyst. While exchange-specific nuances exist, the overarching narrative is one of balance. This data, when combined with neutral funding rates and high open interest, suggests that the market is coiling for a significant move. For investors and traders, this period demands heightened attention to both technical levels and fundamental developments, as the prevailing neutral sentiment on Bitcoin perpetual futures is unlikely to persist indefinitely. FAQs Q1: What is a Bitcoin perpetual futures contract? A Bitcoin perpetual futures contract is a derivative instrument that allows traders to speculate on Bitcoin’s future price without an expiry date. It uses a funding rate mechanism to keep its price aligned with the underlying spot market. Q2: Why is the long/short ratio important? The ratio is a key sentiment indicator. It shows the percentage of traders betting on price increases (long) versus decreases (short). Extreme readings can signal overbought or oversold conditions and potential market reversals. Q3: How often does this data update? Most major exchanges and data aggregators update long/short ratios in real-time or at least every 24 hours. The data cited in this analysis represents a 24-hour snapshot for consistency. Q4: Can the ratio predict Bitcoin’s price direction? While not a perfect predictor, it is a valuable contrarian indicator at extremes. A very high long ratio can signal excessive bullishness and a potential top, while a very high short ratio can indicate extreme fear and a potential bottom. Q5: What is the difference between open interest and the long/short ratio? Open interest is the total number of active derivative contracts. The long/short ratio describes the positioning of the traders within those contracts—whether they are net long or net short. Q6: Does a 50/50 ratio mean the price won’t move? No. A neutral ratio indicates balanced sentiment, not price stability. It often precedes high volatility because the market lacks a clear consensus, making it vulnerable to a decisive move when new information arrives. This post BTC Perpetual Futures Long/Short Ratios Reveal Critical Market Sentiment on Top Exchanges first appeared on BitcoinWorld .

15 Apr 2026, 06:14

Cardano slumps below $0.24 as on-chain signals flash sell-off risk

The crypto market has been bullish over the past few days but Cardano remains one of the most bearish coins in the top 20. The coin lost its place in the top 10 earlier this month and has been underperforming since then. Cardano (ADA) is trading below $0.240 on Wednesday, down by more than 2% in the last 24 hours. On-chain metrics point to a bearish outlook, as a surge in dormant wallet activity and a negative spike in the Network Realized Profit/Loss (NPL) indicator suggest early investors may be offloading tokens, increasing the likelihood of a deeper correction in the near term. ADA stays below $0.2400: On-chain data shows selling pressure Data obtained from Santiment suggests selling pressure for Cardano. Santiment's Network Realized Profit/Loss (NPL) indicator calculates a daily network-level Return On Investment (ROI) based on the coin's on-chain transaction volume, which measures market pain. A surge in a coin’s NPL suggests that the holders are selling their bags at a significant profit. However, strong dips imply that the coin's holders are, on average, realizing losses, suggesting panic sell-offs and investor capitulation. The NPL for Cardano showed a massive dip on Tuesday, indicating that holders, on average, were realizing losses. Furthermore, Santiment’s Age Consumed index also showed an upward spike, suggesting dormant ADA tokens are now being moved (most likely to exchanges). Usually, a surge in dormant wallet activity combined with a negative dip in the NPL indicator leads to massive sell-offs in Cardano. The derivatives data also suggest that the bears are currently in control. CoinGlass' long-to-short ratio for ADA reads 0.95 on Wednesday. This metric has been mostly negative over the past four weeks. A ratio below one indicates bearish sentiment in the market, as traders are betting that the asset price will fall. Cardano price forecast The ADA/USD 4-hour chart is extremely bearish as Cardano is down 8% in the last seven days. ADA is currently trading at $0.239, holding well below the 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs). The $0.2450 resistance level continues to cap further upward movement, with the 50-day EMA at $0.262 and the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the latest downswing at $0.271 layering additional overhead supply. A subdued Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the 4-hour chart is around 43, and a slightly negative Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) reading suggests that upside momentum is weak. This implies that rallies are likely to face selling pressure at these resistance levels. If the bulls regain control and the daily candle closes above the $0.2450 resistance level, it would allow ADA to extend its rally towards the 50-day EMA at $0.262 and the 23.6% retracements at $0.271. Further resistance levels lie around $0.299 and the $0.303 area, where the 38.2% Fibonacci retracements clusters with the 100-day EMA. The 200-day EMA at $0.4000 is less likely to play out in the near term as the market conditions remain fragile. However, if the bears remain in control, they would encounter immediate support at the $0.2200 level, where buyers would be expected to defend the latest cycle low if the decline extends. The post Cardano slumps below $0.24 as on-chain signals flash sell-off risk appeared first on Invezz

15 Apr 2026, 06:11

Bitcoin Developers Propose Freezing Quantum Vulnerable BTC

BIP-361 proposes transitioning the network to quantum-resistant addresses and eventually freezing funds held in vulnerable legacy wallets. The proposal builds on BIP-360 and includes a recovery mechanism using zero-knowledge proofs for users who fail to migrate in time. While it caused debate in the community over its implications, Bitcoin’s price remained relatively stable near $74,000. Bitcoin BIP 361 Could Freeze Old BTC A new proposal from cypherpunk Jameson Lopp and a group of Bitcoin researchers caused intense debate in the crypto industry. It attempts to address one of the network’s most existential long-term risks: quantum computing. The draft proposal is known as BIP-361, and it outlines a plan to freeze Bitcoin held in quantum-vulnerable addresses, including an estimated 1.7 million BTC tied to early pay-to-public-key (P2PK) outputs. This includes Satoshi Nakamoto’s untouched holdings, which is currently valued at roughly $74 billion. The proposal is of a three-phase roadmap that is designed to transition Bitcoin toward quantum-resistant security. It builds on an earlier proposal, BIP-360, which introduced a new address format intended to eliminate vulnerabilities associated with legacy cryptographic methods. While BIP-360 focuses on protecting newly created coins, BIP-361 addresses the big portion of Bitcoin’s supply that is still exposed unless users actively migrate their funds. Under the plan, the first phase would restrict the creation of new transactions to only quantum-resistant address types after a set activation period. The second phase, which is a bit more controversial, would invalidate legacy signatures entirely after several years, effectively freezing any Bitcoin that remains in vulnerable addresses. A final phase introduces a recovery mechanism using zero-knowledge proofs. This allows users who missed the migration deadline to potentially reclaim their funds if they can prove ownership. BIP-361 (Source: GitHub) Supporters of the proposal argue that it introduces a necessary economic incentive for users to upgrade their holdings. However, critics see it as a fundamental violation of Bitcoin’s core principles, particularly the idea that users should always retain full control over their funds. Some people in the community described the proposal as overly authoritarian. They argue that forcibly freezing coins could set a dangerous precedent. Despite the debate, Bitcoin’s market performance stayed relatively stable but subdued. Over the past 24 hours, Bitcoin traded around the $74,000 level , and saw a slight decline of approximately 0.40%. BTC’s price action over the past 24 hours (Source: CoinCodex) While the immediate impact of quantum computing on Bitcoin is still mostly theoretical, proposals like BIP-361 certainly prove that there is a growing urgency in the developer community to future-proof the network. At the same time, the strong pushback also means that there is still a deeper philosophical divide over how Bitcoin should be handled.

15 Apr 2026, 06:05

Ethereum Price Prediction: Bullish Setup Meets 2022 Risk

Ethereum is showing two different signals at the same time. On the weekly chart, a MACD cross is echoing a 2022 setup that came before a sharp drop, while on the 4-hour chart, the short-term structure stays bullish as long as $2,027 holds. ETH MACD Cross Mirrors 2022 Setup, but the Signal Still Needs Confirmation The chart shows a weekly ETHUSD view on Coinbase with the MACD turning up after a long decline. Ted Pillows argues that this kind of bullish MACD cross during a broader downtrend can mark a local top, not a fresh breakout. He points to a similar setup in 2022, when ETH posted a bullish cross and then dropped sharply. ETHUSD 1W Chart With MACD Bullish Cross Comparison. Source: Ted Pillows on X On this chart, the comparison is clear. In 2022, ETH formed a bullish MACD cross after a sustained fall. However, price did not start a lasting recovery. Instead, it rolled over and sold off hard. The green box on the left highlights that decline, which measured about 75%. Now the same type of MACD turn is appearing again on the right side of the chart. The histogram is improving, and the MACD line is trying to cross above the signal line from deeply negative levels. Still, price remains far below the previous cycle highs and continues to trade inside a broader weak structure on the weekly timeframe. So the cross alone does not prove trend reversal. That matters because MACD is a momentum indicator, not a standalone trend confirmation tool. In strong downtrends, bullish crosses often reflect short-term relief rather than a full change in market direction. Therefore, traders usually look for more proof, such as higher highs, stronger weekly closes, and recovery of key resistance levels. In this case, the chart supports a cautious reading. ETH has bounced from lower levels, but it has not yet shown the kind of sustained strength that would invalidate the comparison with 2022. As a result, the current MACD cross may signal temporary upside first, while still leaving room for another rejection if broader trend weakness stays in place. ETH Holds Bullish Structure Above $2,027 as Upside Correction Stays Active Meanwhile, This 4-hour ETHUSD chart shows Ethereum moving in a corrective upside structure that MCO Global says is similar to Bitcoin’s recent setup. Price has pushed into the $2,360 area and is testing a key horizontal resistance zone while still trading below a descending trendline. That means the rally remains active, but it is also approaching a decision area. ETHUSD 4H Corrective Structure With Key Support at $2,027. Source: MCO Global on X The chart maps a five-wave move higher inside a broader corrective pattern. It also marks a possible pullback zone between about $2,209 and $2,027, based on Fibonacci retracement levels. According to the setup, that area could serve as the next support region if ETH pulls back after the recent rise. The most important level in that zone is $2,027. As long as ETH stays above $2,027, the current structure remains intact. In that case, the chart suggests the larger upside correction can continue, even if price first dips from current levels. However, ETH is now trading near horizontal resistance around $2,362 and under the falling trendline, so rejection remains possible before any further extension. If ETH breaks below $2,027, that would weaken the current bullish corrective count. Then focus would likely shift to deeper downside levels shown on the chart, including the larger support region near $1,820 and $1,599. For now, though, the setup stays constructive while ETH holds the marked invalidation level.