hodler

11 May 2026, 14:30

BNB Consolidation Nears End As Market Braces For Major Move

After months of heavy consolidation, BNB is finally showing signs of expansion as price pushes back into a key resistance zone. The market now sits at a pivotal stage where a successful breakout could ignite a stronger rally, while failure to hold momentum may lead to another rotation within the broader range. BNB Nears Completion Of Key Corrective Structure BNB appears to be in the final stages of a corrective sequence on the daily timeframe. According to Elliott Waves Academy, the market is navigating a connecting wave X, which serves as a bridge between two larger corrective movements. This structure indicates that the broader sideways-to-downward trend remains intact for now. Related Reading: Here’s Why The BNB Price Could Rally To $12,000 Before Ethereum The bearish outlook is defined by a W-X-Y pattern, where the initial wave W decline is already complete. The current wave X acts as a continuation pattern that aligns with the previous trend, suggesting that any recent upward movement is likely a reprieve before the next major corrective leg begins. Investors should monitor key support levels, as a break below the current floor will confirm the start of wave Y. This final bearish component is expected to drive price discovery lower as the market seeks to flush out remaining liquidity. The primary downside target for wave Y is pegged at the 280.87 level, representing a significant macro-corrective milestone. Reaching this coordinate would balance the previous wave W and provide a necessary reset for the pair. Expect increased volatility near this zone as sell-side pressure begins to exhaust and the market searches for a bottom. Completion of wave Y near 280.87 could set the stage for a major trend shift and a new long-term upward cycle. Analysts look for a five-wave impulsive movement to emerge, signaling the transition from correction to growth. BNB Shows Renewed Strength After Long Consolidation Phase Analyst IFreqs stated that BNB is beginning to show renewed strength after spending several months trapped in a heavy consolidation phase. According to the analysis, the prolonged sideways movement may be laying the foundation for a larger breakout attempt as momentum gradually starts to improve. Related Reading: BNB Price To Break $3,000? Crypto Trader Shares Game Plan For 500% Rally Price is now revisiting the important $665–$685 supply zone, an area that has previously acted as a strong resistance barrier. A successful reclaim and sustained move above this region could open the door for a continuation rally toward the next major resistance target around $823. However, the analyst also warned that failure to maintain momentum at the current resistance zone could trigger another rotation back into the lower trading range. In that scenario, BNB may continue consolidating before the market is ready for its next significant directional move. Featured image from Adobe Stock, chart from Tradingview.com

11 May 2026, 14:30

Whale Withdraws $16.9M in Ethereum from Bybit and OKX, Signaling Potential Long-Term Hold

BitcoinWorld Whale Withdraws $16.9M in Ethereum from Bybit and OKX, Signaling Potential Long-Term Hold An anonymous Ethereum whale has withdrawn 7,240 ETH, valued at approximately $16.87 million, from the cryptocurrency exchanges Bybit and OKX over the past 20 minutes. The transaction, reported by on-chain analyst ai_9684xtpa via X (formerly Twitter), occurred at an average price of $2,330 per ETH. What the Withdrawal Signals Large withdrawals from centralized exchanges are often interpreted by market participants as a signal of intent to hold rather than sell. When assets are moved to self-custody wallets, it reduces the available supply on exchanges and typically indicates that the holder does not plan to trade or liquidate in the near term. This behavior is commonly associated with whales, or large-scale investors, who may be accumulating for long-term positions. Context and Market Implications The timing of this withdrawal comes amid a period of relative stability for Ethereum, which has been trading in a range between $2,200 and $2,500 over the past several weeks. While single whale movements are not necessarily indicative of broader market trends, they can influence short-term sentiment, particularly when the volume is significant enough to affect exchange order books. Bybit and OKX are among the largest centralized exchanges by trading volume, and substantial outflows from these platforms are closely monitored by analysts for signs of shifting investor behavior. The wallet address, beginning with 0x46D, has not been publicly linked to any known institution or individual, maintaining the anonymity typical of such transactions. Why This Matters to Crypto Investors For retail investors and traders, whale movements can serve as a data point for gauging market sentiment. However, it is important to note that a single withdrawal does not confirm a bullish or bearish outlook. The broader context of on-chain metrics, exchange reserve data, and macroeconomic factors should be considered before drawing conclusions. Conclusion The withdrawal of 7,240 ETH from Bybit and OKX by an anonymous whale adds to the ongoing narrative of large holders moving assets off exchanges. While the intent remains speculative, the action aligns with a pattern often associated with long-term accumulation. As always, investors are advised to conduct their own research and not rely solely on isolated whale activity for trading decisions. FAQs Q1: Why do whales withdraw large amounts of crypto from exchanges? A: Whales often withdraw assets to self-custody wallets to reduce counterparty risk and signal a long-term holding strategy. It can also be a precautionary move ahead of anticipated market events or exchange security concerns. Q2: Does a whale withdrawal always mean the price will go up? A: Not necessarily. While reduced exchange supply can support prices, a single withdrawal does not guarantee a price increase. Market sentiment, trading volume, and broader economic factors also play significant roles. Q3: How can I track whale movements in real-time? A: Several on-chain analytics platforms and social media accounts monitor large transactions. Tools like Whale Alert, Nansen, and dedicated X accounts provide real-time alerts for significant wallet movements. This post Whale Withdraws $16.9M in Ethereum from Bybit and OKX, Signaling Potential Long-Term Hold first appeared on BitcoinWorld .

11 May 2026, 14:27

American Bitcoin Corp.: A Broken Bitcoin-Per-Share Story

Summary American Bitcoin Corp. is a Sell due to a structurally flawed model reliant on external capital and dilution. ABTC’s dual mining and treasury strategy fails to deliver sustainable Bitcoin per share growth, with only one-third of reserves mined and the rest purchased. Heavy cash burn, rapid share dilution (34% increase in one quarter), and $609M in liabilities amplify downside risk, especially in weak crypto markets. Despite a sharp stock decline, ABTC remains expensive with EV/sales 4-5x and FWD P/E ~83x, while operational performance and earnings quality remain poor. American Bitcoin Corp. ( ABTC ) aims to maximize Bitcoin per share by mining it at a lower overall cost. This is done by being something more than just a miner; ABTC has an active treasury strategy, aiming to acquire Bitcoin more efficiently than simply buying it in the open market. Ideally, this should compound well, converting capital into Bitcoin, that too at a discount. The reality, however, is different. The story sounds good, but the stock has declined sharply in the last 12 months. Recent financials reveal heavy dependence on external capital. The model appears to work in a strong crypto bull market, but it has no defense for the kind of crypto bear market we are currently in. I view ABTC as a Sell, particularly if the broader crypto cycle remains uncertain. Business Overview ABTC operates a dual model: it mines Bitcoin, and it builds and manages a corporate Bitcoin treasury. The clear goal is to maximize Bitcoin per share. In its Q4 2025 earnings call, management indicated Bitcoin production at roughly ~53% of discount to spot. The pitch includes disciplined capital allocation to accumulate additional reserves. So the idea goes: Capital → Mine below spot (~53%) → Accumulate Bitcoin → Increase BTC/share → Higher equity value. Traditional miners focus on production and margins. ETFs focus on pure exposure. ABTC aims to do this a little differently. The company has grown quickly. In Q1 2025, its revenue was $12.3M. One year later, in Q1 2026, its revenue grew 5-fold to $62.1M. The balance sheet now includes roughly $479M of digital assets, reflecting aggressive accumulation. This is a differentiated model—on paper—with a combination of mining and treasury to compound Bitcoin ownership. However, only about one-third of the reserve has been accumulated through mining, and the rest has been purchased. This is the reality—the model isn't primarily driven by low-cost production but by external capital. Where the Model Starts to Break This model starts to break under certain conditions. Mostly, this flywheel is not self-sustaining and needs certain other external conditions to happen to be successful. First, the mining "discount" is not stable. The ~53% cost advantage moves up or down with Bitcoin prices, network difficulty, and energy costs. In weak crypto markets, the advantage narrows quickly. Accounting volatility also drives success/failure—ABTC reported $117M in digital asset losses in Q1 2026, overwhelming operating performance. Second, the model needs external funding. Although revenue growth was strong, the company generated -$42.5M in operating cash flow and -$61.8M in investing cash flow. Both, as you can see, are negative numbers—and the gap was funded through $110.5M of equity issuance, highlighting reliance on external capital (a total of ~$240M has been raised through ABTC's at-the-market program). The goal of increasing Bitcoin per share doesn't work out so well if it is financed by diluting those shares. Share count increased from roughly 243M to 327M in a single quarter, a ~34% rise, which clearly shows how quickly dilution is occurring. Let me explain that mathematically. Bitcoin per share equals total Bitcoin held divided by shares outstanding. Since funding is dilutive, the number of shares outstanding increases. That means the denominator in that equation increases. Therefore, unless there's a disproportionate increase in Bitcoin held through using the dilutive financing, Bitcoin per share does not increase. In other words, the company may own more Bitcoin in absolute terms while shareholders own less Bitcoin per share. Third, the balance sheet brings in leverage to Bitcoin prices. ABTC holds ~$479M in digital assets against ~$609M in liabilities, including about $360.9M in miner purchase obligations and lease obligations. That leverage could amplify the downside quickly. The Market Is Already Voting Against The Story One would think that if the "Bitcoin per share" was working as planned, the stock should at least track Bitcoin directionally. It hasn't, as you can see in the chart below: Seeking Alpha In fact, the divergence here is striking. Whereas BTC has dropped just ~23% in the period under review, ABTC has dropped over 85%. Even when BTC seems to have stabilized a little—say in November—ABTC has dropped sharply. This tells me that ABTC is not behaving like a leveraged proxy of BTC, but rather like a weak equity wrapper around dilution, cash burn, and balance sheet risk—things that are overwhelming the underlying asset exposure. If this were a clean Bitcoin proxy, you would expect strong correlation with the BTC price. You would want to see some operational leverage on the upside, and the downside should be limited beyond BTC itself. Instead, you see a negative convexity. When Bitcoin weakens, losses amplify terribly. When Bitcoin stabilizes, stocks still struggle due to cash burn, dilution, and other factors unrelated to Bitcoin itself. When Bitcoin rises, the stock struggles to keep up—even from a distance. To cut a long story short: the market isn't rejecting Bitcoin; it is rejecting the wrapper—call it the baggage—around it. The Wrapper: Revenue Growth vs. Earnings Quality From a distance, ABTC's financials look strong—rapid scaling and a huge increase in Q1 revenue YoY, reflecting a sharp increase in mining capacity and operational throughput. Up close, when you look at earnings, the story breaks. ABTC reported a net loss of $81.8M for the quarter, driven primarily by a $117.2M loss on digital assets. The key issue that emerges here: the income statement is dominated by mark-to-market movement in Bitcoin holdings, not operations. Even at the operating level, an operating loss of $118.2M, a $29.6M cost of revenue, and a huge $26.6M depreciation indicate weak performance. So we have business with revenue growth but no profitability, volatile earnings heavily dependent on Bitcoin prices, and non-operating items like derivatives, revaluation, etc. materially affecting results. In fact, speaking of derivatives, the only meaningful offset to losses in Q1 came from a $37.3M gain on derivatives. That is not a stable or repeatable source of earnings. What This Means This means that the company may look like it is a scaling operation, but economically, it is loss-making at its core; it depends on favorable Bitcoin price movements, and it has a lot of accounting volatility. This is not just one part of the structure, but it directly corrupts the thesis itself. The "Bitcoin per share" model needs efficient operations to compound. That is not the case here—the engine is being driven by external factors, and it is not generating consistent returns. We can see this even more clearly when we look at the valuation. Valuation: Not Cheap For What You're Getting At current levels, ABTC does not look distressed. If anything, the valuation suggests the market is giving a different opinion here about the growth narrative than the price performance indicated. There is a real contradiction here. The stock has collapsed, but the multiples still remain high. EV/sales ((FWD)) is 4-5x, Forward non-GAAP P/E is a huge ~83x, and EV/EBITDA ((FWD)) is 10x. Don't mistake these multiples as "normative"—that the market is saying this is how it should be. No, these high multiples only indicate that the underlying fundamentals are so weak that even after a sharp decline, the business still looks too expensive. If you want a one-liner, the stock is down but not cheap. Risks To My Thesis A sustained Bitcoin bull market is the biggest risk to my bearish thesis. Since ABTC has high leverage, it would amplify any sharp upward move in Bitcoin prices. That would make the "Bitcoin per share" narrative more credible. Another risk to my bearish thesis is operational execution. Management has done a good job scaling revenue rapidly. If ABTC continues to expand mining while maintaining a discount to spot Bitcoin, operational leverage could improve faster than I currently expect. I have said that dilution is a concern with ABTC; however, if it can help accumulate Bitcoin such that it outpaces growth in shares outstanding, that could help compound Bitcoin per share. Management points to Satoshi's per-share growth as evidence that this is already happening. Finally, Bitcoin moves considerably on sentiment, which could be a risk to my bearish thesis. Bitcoin and related equities can re-rate aggressively during speculative cycles. Sometimes well beyond what the fundamentals justify. If that happens, even a justified bearish thesis may crumble before overwhelming momentum and narrative strength. Conclusion: A Clear Sell ABTC has a great story—compound Bitcoin per share through a mining plus treasury combo model. The financial reality does not support that model, though. ABTC burns cash, most of which comes through dilutive external financing. Operating performance remains weak, and earnings, as we saw, are heavily dependent on volatile mark-to-market movements. The balance sheet is dragged down by heavy leverage, which amplifies the downside risk even more. Most importantly, the model hasn't done what it was supposed to do—it hasn't translated into per-share value creation. This shows up in ABTC's severe underperformance versus BTC. Even that sharp decline hasn't made the valuation compelling. Risks are not fully priced in. If you want clean Bitcoin exposure, this is not it. I consider ABTC a clear Sell.

11 May 2026, 14:25

Solana Whale Moves $2 Million in PENGU From Binance, Signaling Potential Accumulation

BitcoinWorld Solana Whale Moves $2 Million in PENGU From Binance, Signaling Potential Accumulation An anonymous Solana whale address has withdrawn approximately 199 million PENGU tokens, valued at roughly $2.04 million, from the Binance exchange in a series of three transactions that began roughly an hour ago. The wallet, identified by the prefix 8uAXw, executed the transfers in a relatively short window, a pattern often interpreted by market observers as a signal of intent to hold rather than trade. On-Chain Activity and Market Implications Large withdrawals from centralized exchanges to private wallets are commonly viewed as a bullish signal within the cryptocurrency community. The logic is straightforward: when tokens are moved off an exchange, they are less accessible for immediate sale, reducing available supply on the order book. This particular movement of PENGU, the native token of the Pudgy Penguins ecosystem, comes at a time when the broader Solana ecosystem is seeing increased activity and price volatility. While the identity of the wallet owner remains unknown, the size and timing of the withdrawal have drawn attention from on-chain analysts. The three separate transactions, each of a substantial amount, suggest a deliberate accumulation strategy rather than a routine transfer. Such behavior can sometimes precede larger market moves, though it is equally consistent with an investor moving assets to a cold storage solution for long-term safekeeping. PENGU Token and the Pudgy Penguins Ecosystem PENGU is the official token of the Pudgy Penguins NFT project, one of the more recognizable collections on the Solana blockchain. The token has seen significant trading volume since its launch, and its price is closely tied to the overall health and sentiment surrounding the Pudgy Penguins brand and the Solana NFT market. Large movements like this one can influence short-term price action, particularly if other market participants interpret the withdrawal as a signal of confidence from a major holder. Why This Matters for Traders and Investors For traders monitoring on-chain data, this type of activity provides a real-time window into the behavior of large capital participants, often called ‘whales.’ While one withdrawal does not constitute a definitive trend, it adds to the mosaic of signals that inform market sentiment. The PENGU market, like many altcoin markets, is relatively thin compared to major cryptocurrencies, meaning that large holders can have an outsized impact on price. Readers should note that exchange withdrawals are just one data point. They do not guarantee future price appreciation, and the motivations behind any single transaction can vary widely, from strategic accumulation to internal wallet management. As always, market participants are advised to conduct their own research and consider multiple sources of information before making trading decisions. Conclusion The withdrawal of nearly $2.04 million in PENGU from Binance by an anonymous Solana whale represents a notable on-chain event. While the move aligns with a holding or accumulation narrative, the true intent of the wallet owner remains unknown. The event underscores the continued influence of large holders in the cryptocurrency market and the value of on-chain data for understanding market dynamics. FAQs Q1: What does it mean when a whale withdraws tokens from an exchange? A: It is often interpreted as a sign that the holder intends to keep the tokens for the long term, reducing the available supply for trading. However, it could also be for other reasons like moving funds to a different wallet or exchange. Q2: How much PENGU was withdrawn in this transaction? A: Approximately 199 million PENGU tokens, worth about $2.04 million at the time of the transactions. Q3: Is this a guaranteed bullish signal for PENGU? A: No. While large exchange withdrawals are often viewed positively by the market, they are not a guaranteed predictor of future price movements. Many factors influence token prices, and this is just one data point. This post Solana Whale Moves $2 Million in PENGU From Binance, Signaling Potential Accumulation first appeared on BitcoinWorld .

11 May 2026, 14:20

Ondo Finance Bridges 35 Stock and ETF Tokens to Hyperliquid’s HyperEVM

BitcoinWorld Ondo Finance Bridges 35 Stock and ETF Tokens to Hyperliquid’s HyperEVM Ondo Finance has announced a significant expansion of its tokenized asset ecosystem, bridging 35 stock and exchange-traded fund (ETF) tokens to Hyperliquid’s HyperEVM. The move leverages cross-chain messaging protocol LayerZero to enable seamless transfer of these assets, which represent real-world equities and ETFs on the blockchain. Details of the Integration The integration allows users of Hyperliquid’s HyperEVM to trade Ondo Finance’s tokenized stock products directly on the platform. Ondo Global Markets, the division behind the tokenization, currently holds approximately $970 million in total value locked (TVL) and has facilitated a cumulative trading volume of $18 billion. This development marks a step toward deeper interoperability between traditional financial assets and decentralized trading environments. Implications for Tokenized Asset Trading By bridging these assets to HyperEVM, Ondo Finance is expanding the reach of tokenized securities beyond its own ecosystem. Hyperliquid, known for its high-performance perpetuals trading, now gains access to a diversified pool of real-world asset tokens. LayerZero’s technology provides the infrastructure for secure cross-chain transfers, reducing friction for users moving assets between networks. Why This Matters For traders and investors, the bridge opens up new opportunities to engage with tokenized stocks and ETFs in a DeFi context, without leaving the Hyperliquid environment. It also signals growing institutional confidence in tokenized assets, as Ondo Finance’s TVL and volume figures suggest substantial market demand. The integration could set a precedent for other platforms seeking to combine traditional asset exposure with decentralized trading. Conclusion Ondo Finance’s decision to bridge 35 stock and ETF tokens to HyperEVM, powered by LayerZero, represents a practical step in merging traditional finance with blockchain-based trading. With nearly $1 billion in TVL and a strong trading history, the initiative underscores the increasing viability of tokenized real-world assets in the DeFi space. FAQs Q1: What tokens are being bridged? Ondo Finance is bridging 35 stock and ETF tokens, representing real-world equities and exchange-traded funds, to Hyperliquid’s HyperEVM. Q2: How does LayerZero enable this bridge? LayerZero provides a cross-chain messaging protocol that allows secure and efficient transfer of tokens between different blockchain networks, in this case from Ondo Finance’s ecosystem to HyperEVM. Q3: What is the current scale of Ondo Global Markets? Ondo Global Markets holds approximately $970 million in total value locked (TVL) and has recorded a cumulative trading volume of $18 billion. This post Ondo Finance Bridges 35 Stock and ETF Tokens to Hyperliquid’s HyperEVM first appeared on BitcoinWorld .

11 May 2026, 14:15

FBTC And 3 Virtues Of Bitcoin That Today Are Not Expressed By The Price

Summary Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund ETF (FBTC) remains a BUY in my opinion despite an 8% drawdown since December 2026, supported by unexpressed value in Bitcoin. FBTC's high liquidity grade (A+) makes it ideal for speculative trading, though lower-fee ETFs like BTC may suit long-term holders better. Three bullish drivers,political inflationary policy, strong macro/tech sector growth, and accumulating 'unexpressed scarcity',support the Bitcoin thesis. I manage FBTC risk with technical signals (weekly RSI near 30), targeting controlled entries amid high volatility (43% annualized). From the last coverage of FBTC, the price has dropped by 8%. In this market, there doesn't seem to have been room for uncertainty. Yet it's precisely in a market like the one we're going through today, that I think Bitcoin can make room for itself. And personally, despite the price congestion, I continue, stubbornly, to identify 3 potential patterns/virtues that could make demand step on the accelerator, therefore the price. And I talk about it here, but first... A quick TL;DR For new readers I'm happy to leave this TL;DR, to introduce us all better to what is the thesis of my research: FBTC was born with the objective of following the price of BTC-USD, by directly holding bitcoin; it's a spot ETF. To do this it charges costs ( TER ) of about 0.25%; an element, even if not the only one, that has over time contributed to amplifying the tracking error. Let me explain better ... FBTC: 1Y Price Performance (Seeking Alpha) Since BTC-USD is very volatile, and since the fees are paid in Bitcoin, and all the more so since from 2024 BTC has grown by over 74%, the cost of those fees, in absolute terms remains higher than what is actually paid, and the true measure is precisely in the lower total return that you get compared to obtaining Bitcoin directly onchain. FBTC - BTC-USD: tracking (Seeking Alpha) And if one were to introduce a peer comparison, costs become an indispensable yardstick in this sense. And considering that there are ETFs with lower fees, such as for example BTC , why then take FBTC into consideration? It will potentially have a higher tracking error over time? FBTC: Bitcoin ETF Comparison (Seeking Alpha) Yes, partly yes. But it's also true that FBTC has an important merit. An enviable liquidity grade, for SA A+, which makes it interesting for faster operations, and representativeness in the entry and exit price, with the guarantee of the Fidelity brand. And it's an element I appreciate, especially for the thesis and strategy I'm about to introduce you to. FBTC: Liquidity Grade (Seeking Alpha) My view The price clashes clashing with 3 evidences that in my opinion are bullish for Bitcoin. And I love working on divergences, because they allow me to manage the position well. Before showing you how, here are what are the 3 unexpressed virtues in my opinion: Political reasons Trump has interest in my opinion in keeping the value of the dollar low. It happens because in the coming months America will have to repay 7 trillion dollars of debt and that's not little. Federal Debt Trend (FRED) And in this sense, I'm not surprised by Trump's interest in maintaining a positive inflationary tone: He puts pressure on the Fed to cut rates (increases inflation and reduces the cost of debt) He introduces tariffs , despite the DOJ's accusations, today increasing by 25% the prices of the automotive segment, an important key of the industrial sector, a direct component of inflation. He carries forward a war narrative in the direction of key energy centers like Venezuela and the Middle East, making the price of oil skyrocket. He introduces fiscal maneuvers like Trump's "Big Beautiful Bill" which yes.. will increase fiscal deficits, but also pushes up monetary circulation, another important key to reading aggregate inflation. 5Y Inflation Expectations (FRED) And it's natural, because sustained inflation is the key to lightening the weight of debt and transferring it to savers. And in this context an unusual variable is inserted, which moves parallel and silently: the CLARITY Act + GENIUS Act + Strategic Bitcoin Reserve. Macro reasons Partially already explored, but we could go deeper talking about economic growth: with unemployment at 4.3% and a GDP growth expected by the Atlanta Fed at 3.7% , it's not a level that alerts to recession. Trying to also insert a "micro" variable, companies don't seem to be in a situation of economic difficulty, especially the sector closest to Bitcoin: the technological one. Not by chance the Q1 data was excellent, with an earning surprise of 10% for the tech segment, despite there already being very high expectations: for CY 2026 almost 40% earnings growth expected. Sector Earnings growth (FactSet financial data and analytics.) In essence, at these capital costs, we're still talking about economic expansion, and especially widening margins. And considering that BTC-USD is a high beta of the Nasdaq-100, personally I read it as a divergence to keep under control. FBTC: Bitcoin vs Nasdaq Performance (Seeking Alpha) Fundamental reasons In my opinion "unexpressed scarcity" is accumulating on Bitcoin's price. Many complain about the "fall of scarcity models" like stock to flow, in describing Bitcoin's price, because in the last 10 years it described its trend well, while today no. The question I ask my fellow maximalists is: did you really think that an asset could have mathematical growth? Well it's absurd to even write it. As if gold had followed its stock to flow to the letter. Naturally the price action is discontinuous, it follows logics tied to sentiment, and precisely to the market, like simply a much higher cost of capital. But this doesn't mean that Bitcoin has become less "rare". So in these market conditions it's true... Bitcoin doesn't follow stock to flow. But this in my opinion means that "unexpressed scarcity" is accumulating on the price, so read by an analyst as a sort of "discount" compared to fair price. I talked about it in depth here . FBTC: Bitcoin Power Law Projection (Author) Risk Bitcoin is not equal to the Nasdaq for a fundamental reason, for a logical coherence that has characterized recent years: low rates. Both, with growth characteristics benefit from a reduction in the cost of capital, because it becomes more interesting to expose oneself to risk. Read differently, as if the ERP (risk premium) were becoming higher (even if on FBTC you can't talk exactly about risk premium). Anyway this characterized the market of the decades preceding 2022, and the market began to attribute to BTC the connotations of high beta of the Nasdaq-100. Today the capital conditions are different... and I know that behind the push of the Nasdaq there are the hyperscalers , who have expanded CAPEX spent by 70% in 2025, and that this entails in terms of guidance almost a +3% in the companies' operating margins, and therefore an expected growth of almost 40% in 2026. But Bitcoin? Simply Bitcoin doesn't benefit from this, and if rates don't compress, precisely because of the guided inflation, this could in an adverse scenario entail the breaking of the paradigm "the Nasdaq grows, therefore bitcoin will outperform". And it's a risk considering that FBTC's annualized volatility exceeds 43%. FBTC: Risk Grade (Seeking Alpha) How do I manage the risk? Personally I would like to try to capture in the satellite component of my model portfolio this "value" in my opinion unexpressed, but with controlled risk on FBTC considering its ample liquidity. And in this sense, I do it with a technical, graphical strategy. I identify negative imbalances, and personally to do this I look at the RSI, and I wait for 30 points on weekly tf. Then I simply take position with controlled risk below the minimum (not surgical to avoid hunting for bottoms, it may be that Bitcoin returns to seek liquidity near April's lows). In this way however I amplify the possibility of positioning on a mega trend, maintaining controlled risk. FBTC: Bitcoin RSI Reset Signal (Seeking Alpha) Conclusion In conclusion, I'm down 8% from my last coverage, but it doesn't mean that there isn't unexpressed value in Bitcoin's price. At least according to my opinion, there are 3 reasons to think so, respectively political, macro/micro and fundamental. Considering FBTC's liquidity and the possibility of a controlled risk operation, I think that even today the right rating for FBTC is BUY.