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20 Mar 2026, 09:47
HYPE Cryptocurrency Surges: Could Reach $150 Amidst Oil Price Volatility and Geopolitical Tensions
BitcoinWorld HYPE Cryptocurrency Surges: Could Reach $150 Amidst Oil Price Volatility and Geopolitical Tensions Global energy market uncertainty and Middle East tensions are creating unexpected opportunities in cryptocurrency markets, with Hyperliquid’s HYPE token showing remarkable resilience and growth potential according to recent analysis. The platform has reportedly attracted significant attention from professional traders seeking exposure to oil-related volatility through digital assets. This development highlights the increasing intersection between traditional commodity markets and decentralized finance infrastructure. HYPE Cryptocurrency Gains Amid Oil Market Turbulence Recent analysis from DL News indicates that Hyperliquid’s HYPE token could benefit significantly from current geopolitical developments. The platform has experienced substantial growth in trading activity, particularly for oil-related trading pairs. According to the report, trading volume for these pairs recently reached $1.5 billion within a 24-hour period. This surge in activity demonstrates how cryptocurrency platforms are increasingly serving as venues for exposure to traditional market movements. Energy market uncertainty has pushed oil prices past $100 per barrel, creating ripple effects across multiple financial sectors. During this period, HYPE has risen approximately 35% over the past month while Bitcoin has largely traded sideways. This divergence suggests that specific cryptocurrency assets can respond differently to macroeconomic factors than major digital currencies. The platform’s architecture apparently enables more direct exposure to commodity market movements through specialized trading pairs. Hyperliquid’s Infrastructure and Market Position Hyun-soo Jeong, CEO of Hyperion DeFi, recently commented on the platform’s current standing in decentralized finance markets. “Hyperliquid is currently the most liquid venue on-chain,” Jeong stated, adding that “its growth is set to accelerate” given current market conditions. The platform’s infrastructure reportedly supports sophisticated trading strategies that professional traders typically employ during periods of heightened volatility. The relationship between oil prices and cryptocurrency performance represents an emerging area of market analysis. Several factors contribute to this connection: Inflation hedging: Rising oil prices often signal broader inflationary pressures Geopolitical risk: Conflict regions frequently impact energy supply chains Market correlation: Traditional and digital assets increasingly influence each other Trading innovation: New financial instruments bridge commodity and crypto markets Professional traders appear to be leveraging these connections through platforms like Hyperliquid. The $1.5 billion daily volume for oil-related pairs suggests substantial institutional or sophisticated retail participation. This activity level indicates growing confidence in cryptocurrency infrastructure for managing exposure to traditional market movements. Analyst Perspectives on Price Projections Some market analysts are now forecasting that HYPE could reach $150 by year’s end, based on current trends and platform adoption rates. These projections consider multiple factors beyond simple price appreciation. Platform growth, increased trading volume, and expanding user base all contribute to token valuation models in decentralized finance ecosystems. The analysis emphasizes that cryptocurrency markets increasingly reflect broader economic conditions. While Bitcoin often serves as a digital gold equivalent, specialized tokens like HYPE can provide more targeted exposure to specific market sectors. This specialization allows traders to implement more nuanced strategies during periods of geopolitical uncertainty or commodity price volatility. Geopolitical Context and Market Implications The conflict in Iran and surrounding regions has created significant uncertainty in global energy markets. Oil prices have responded with notable increases, affecting transportation costs, manufacturing expenses, and overall economic stability. Cryptocurrency markets, traditionally viewed as separate from these developments, are demonstrating increasing sensitivity to such geopolitical events. This connection manifests through several channels. First, energy costs directly impact cryptocurrency mining operations, affecting network security and token issuance. Second, inflationary pressures from rising oil prices can increase interest in alternative stores of value. Third, market volatility often drives trading activity across all financial sectors, including digital assets. The following table illustrates recent market movements: Asset 30-Day Performance Key Influencing Factors HYPE Token +35% Oil volatility, platform growth, trading volume Bitcoin (BTC) ±5% Market sentiment, regulatory developments Oil (Brent Crude) +22% Geopolitical tensions, supply concerns These divergent performances highlight how different assets respond to the same macroeconomic conditions. The HYPE token’s stronger correlation with oil markets suggests its utility as a trading instrument for energy market exposure. This functionality distinguishes it from more general-purpose cryptocurrencies that serve primarily as value storage or payment mechanisms. Platform Fundamentals and Growth Trajectory Hyperliquid’s architecture reportedly supports the sophisticated trading strategies that professional market participants require. The platform’s liquidity, particularly for oil-related pairs, enables large transactions without significant price impact. This characteristic proves especially valuable during periods of market stress when traditional venues might experience liquidity constraints. The platform’s growth trajectory appears supported by several structural factors. Decentralized finance continues expanding its market share in global trading activity. Professional traders increasingly seek venues offering both cryptocurrency and traditional market exposure. Market volatility typically increases trading volume across all platforms, benefiting established venues with proven infrastructure. Hyun-soo Jeong’s comments about accelerating growth reflect these underlying trends. As traditional and digital markets continue converging, platforms facilitating this intersection likely experience increased adoption. The current geopolitical situation merely accelerates existing trends toward integrated financial markets and diversified trading strategies. Risk Considerations and Market Dynamics While current analysis suggests positive momentum for HYPE, several risk factors warrant consideration. Geopolitical situations can change rapidly, potentially reducing oil price volatility. Cryptocurrency markets remain subject to regulatory developments that could impact trading platforms. Platform-specific risks, including technological issues or security concerns, always exist in decentralized finance. Market participants should consider these factors when evaluating investment decisions. The $150 price projection represents analyst opinion based on current conditions, not guaranteed outcomes. All cryptocurrency investments carry inherent volatility and risk, particularly during periods of geopolitical uncertainty. Conclusion The HYPE cryptocurrency demonstrates how digital assets increasingly interact with traditional market forces like oil prices and geopolitical events. Hyperliquid’s platform has gained significant traction among professional traders seeking exposure to energy market volatility through cryptocurrency instruments. While analyst projections suggest potential appreciation to $150, market participants should consider the complex interplay of factors influencing cryptocurrency valuations. The platform’s growth highlights broader trends toward integrated financial markets where traditional and digital assets coexist within sophisticated trading ecosystems. FAQs Q1: What is driving HYPE cryptocurrency’s recent performance? The token’s performance appears connected to oil market volatility and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Hyperliquid’s platform enables trading oil-related pairs, attracting professional traders during periods of market uncertainty. Q2: How does Hyperliquid differ from other cryptocurrency exchanges? The platform reportedly offers sophisticated trading capabilities for professional traders, particularly for commodity-related trading pairs. Its architecture supports complex strategies and maintains liquidity during volatile market conditions. Q3: What risks should investors consider with HYPE? Standard cryptocurrency risks apply, plus platform-specific considerations and exposure to oil market volatility. Geopolitical developments could rapidly change market conditions affecting the token’s performance. Q4: How reliable are the $150 price projections? These represent analyst opinions based on current trends, not guaranteed outcomes. Cryptocurrency markets remain highly volatile, and multiple factors could influence future price movements. Q5: Can retail investors participate in Hyperliquid trading? While the platform attracts professional traders, retail investors can typically access similar services. However, they should understand the risks associated with trading volatile assets and commodity-linked cryptocurrency pairs. This post HYPE Cryptocurrency Surges: Could Reach $150 Amidst Oil Price Volatility and Geopolitical Tensions first appeared on BitcoinWorld .
20 Mar 2026, 09:45
Altcoin Trading Volume Plummets: Major Exchanges See Dramatic 70% Drop in Activity
BitcoinWorld Altcoin Trading Volume Plummets: Major Exchanges See Dramatic 70% Drop in Activity Global cryptocurrency markets are witnessing a significant contraction in altcoin trading activity, with major exchanges reporting dramatic volume declines that signal shifting investor behavior and market dynamics in early 2025. Altcoin Trading Volume Experiences Sharp Decline Recent data reveals a substantial decrease in altcoin trading volume across leading cryptocurrency exchanges. According to market analyst Darkfost’s observations on social media platform X, current altcoin spot trading volume on Binance stands at approximately $7.7 billion. Furthermore, the total volume across major exchanges has reached only $18.8 billion. This represents a remarkable decline from October 2024, when the altcoin market demonstrated significantly higher activity levels. During that previous period, Binance alone recorded $40 billion in altcoin trading volume. Additionally, the collective volume across major exchanges peaked at $63 billion. The current figures therefore represent decreases of approximately 80% on Binance and 70% across the broader exchange landscape. Market analysts attribute this contraction to several interconnected factors affecting cryptocurrency markets globally. Historical Context and Market Cycle Analysis Cryptocurrency markets typically experience cyclical patterns of activity. Historically, periods of rising altcoin volume have coincided with increased retail investor participation. Market observers often describe this phenomenon as FOMO, or fear of missing out. During such phases, traders frequently shift attention from Bitcoin to alternative cryptocurrencies seeking higher percentage gains. The current market environment presents a contrasting scenario. Altcoins continue to underperform against Bitcoin, maintaining a pattern observed throughout previous market cycles. This performance disparity has contributed to reduced trading interest and capital allocation toward alternative digital assets. Several technical and fundamental factors are influencing this market behavior. Exchange-Specific Volume Analysis Major cryptocurrency exchanges provide transparent data about trading activities. The following table illustrates the volume changes across key platforms: Exchange Current Altcoin Volume October 2024 Volume Percentage Change Binance $7.7 billion $40 billion -80.75% Major Exchanges Combined $18.8 billion $63 billion -70.16% This data indicates a broad-based reduction in trading activity rather than platform-specific issues. The contraction affects both spot trading and derivatives markets, though spot volumes show more pronounced declines. Market structure analysis reveals several contributing elements to this trend. Market Dynamics and Investor Behavior Several interconnected factors are driving the reduction in altcoin trading volume. Firstly, regulatory developments in multiple jurisdictions have created uncertainty. Secondly, macroeconomic conditions influence risk appetite across financial markets. Thirdly, the cryptocurrency sector experiences natural cyclicality between Bitcoin dominance and altcoin seasons. Key factors influencing current market conditions: Increased regulatory scrutiny on cryptocurrency exchanges Shifting macroeconomic policies affecting risk assets Bitcoin’s continued outperformance relative to altcoins Reduced retail investor participation in cryptocurrency markets Institutional preference for Bitcoin and established assets Market analysts note that volume contractions often precede significant price movements. Historically, periods of low trading activity have created favorable entry points for long-term investors. However, timing such market turns requires careful analysis of multiple indicators beyond volume alone. Expert Perspectives on Market Opportunities Darkfost’s analysis suggests that current market conditions may present strategic opportunities. He observes that the best buying opportunities frequently emerge when market interest remains low. Additionally, these periods typically occur when most traders stay on the sidelines. This contrarian perspective aligns with historical market cycle patterns observed since Bitcoin’s inception. Other market analysts echo similar sentiments while emphasizing risk management. They note that volume indicators provide important signals about market sentiment. However, these signals must be considered alongside other technical and fundamental factors. The relationship between trading volume and price action remains complex in cryptocurrency markets. Comparative Analysis with Previous Market Cycles Historical data reveals similar volume contractions during previous cryptocurrency market cycles. For instance, the 2018-2019 bear market witnessed comparable declines in altcoin trading activity. Similarly, the 2022 market correction produced volume patterns resembling current conditions. These historical parallels provide context for understanding present market dynamics. Market recovery patterns following volume contractions vary significantly. Some altcoins experience rapid volume recovery during market upturns. Others demonstrate more gradual returns to previous activity levels. This variability depends on multiple factors including project fundamentals, market positioning, and technological developments. Conclusion Altcoin trading volume has experienced a substantial decline across major cryptocurrency exchanges, with current figures representing approximately 30% of October 2024 levels. This contraction reflects broader market dynamics including regulatory developments, macroeconomic conditions, and natural market cyclicality. While current conditions present challenges for active traders, market analysts suggest such periods may create strategic opportunities for patient investors. The relationship between trading volume and market cycles continues to evolve as cryptocurrency markets mature and institutional participation increases. FAQs Q1: What is the current altcoin trading volume on Binance? The current altcoin spot trading volume on Binance is approximately $7.7 billion, representing a significant decrease from October 2024 when volume reached $40 billion. Q2: How does altcoin trading volume affect cryptocurrency prices? Trading volume provides liquidity and indicates market interest. Generally, higher volume supports price stability and facilitates larger transactions, while low volume can increase volatility and make significant price movements more likely. Q3: Why are altcoins underperforming compared to Bitcoin? Altcoins frequently underperform Bitcoin during certain market phases due to Bitcoin’s established position as market leader, greater institutional adoption, and its perception as a relative safe haven within cryptocurrency markets. Q4: What does FOMO mean in cryptocurrency trading? FOMO stands for “fear of missing out” and describes investor behavior driven by anxiety about missing potential gains, often leading to increased buying activity during rising markets. Q5: Can low trading volume indicate buying opportunities? Some analysts believe periods of low trading volume and reduced market interest can present strategic buying opportunities, as assets may be undervalued when most traders are inactive, though this requires careful risk assessment. This post Altcoin Trading Volume Plummets: Major Exchanges See Dramatic 70% Drop in Activity first appeared on BitcoinWorld .
20 Mar 2026, 09:44
Shiba Inu Price Jumps Near 4% as Binance Whales Turn Bullish
Shiba Inu’s native token $SHIB is up by almost 4% today, March 20, 2026. Binance’s long/short ratio hit a 3-week high. SEC/CFTC classify SHIB as a commodity and not a security. Shiba Inu, a well-known memecoin within the crypto world, surged in price today, March 20, 2026. In the last 24 hours, the token has been up by almost 4% as per CoinMarketCap. As per CoinMarketCap , this sharp rally significantly outperformed a broadly flat cryptocurrency market, which edged up just 0.36% to a total capitalization of $2.42 trillion. The Fear & Greed Index climbed to 32 from yesterday’s 30. This indicates that there is budding optimism within the market. Moreover, the Altcoin Season Index hit 47, which indicates a possible altcoin momentum in the future. Even though there have been hurdles such as the US Federal Reserve’s hawkish pause (they have decided to keep the interest rate cuts steady at 3.5-3.75%) and a 1.6% Dow Jones drop, SHIB showcased remarkable resilience. The memecoin’s ascent lacks a singular news catalyst but aligns with strategic accumulation by large traders, pushed by fresh regulatory clarity. At press time, the Shiba Inu price stands at $0.000005962 with an uptick of 3.78% in the last 24-hours as per CoinMarketCap. SHIB 24-hours chart Whale Positioning Shifts Bullishly on Binance The rally’s anchor is a decisive pivot in whale sentiment. Binance data shows that the Top Trader Long/Short Ratio for SHIB accounts soared to 1.11, which was its highest in three weeks, with 57.75% of top accounts positioned long and 52.53% of position volume on the buy side. This marks a qualitative exit from early March’s uncertainty, as informed traders treat the recent pullback as a prime entry point. The logic here is that when more traders go long, they are basically buying or expecting the price to go up. As the number of long positions increases, it creates more buying pressure in the market and that is why the price of the token goes up. Hence, higher long/short ratio usually leads to price increase. SHIB’s surge is because of tactical capital inflows by sophisticated players and not because of retail-driven hype. Sustained volume will be key to confirm if this accumulation goes beyond short-term positioning. For crypto analysts tracking tokenomics and institutional flows, this signals confidence in Shiba Inu’s speculative potential into the second half of 2026. Regulatory Green Light Removes Major Overhang Compounding the bullish case, the SEC and CFTC on March 17 issued a joint rule that explicitly classified SHIB as a digital commodity and not a security. This decision now removes a long-standing legal barrier and enhances institutional appeal and paves the way for regulated products like ETFs or futures. However, as the regulatory risk decreases, strategic holders can gain conviction, and unlock deeper liquidity and yield opportunities in DeFi ecosystems where SHIB thrives. Technical Outlook: Bullish but Overextended The Shiba Inu token is currently hovering around $0.00000596, holding above a key-short term support zone near $0.00000574. The token recently tested resistance around the $0.00000598-$0.00000600 range but is now showing signs of slight cooling after the rally. Momentum indicators suggest caution. The RSI remains in the overbought zone (above 70), indicating that a short-term pullback or consolidation could be likely. If Shiba Inu price manages to stay above $0.00000574, the price could attempt another move toward the $0.00000619 level. However, a drop below this support may lead to a retest of lower levels near $0.00000590. Broader Market Context SHIB’s decoupled strength indicates that there is memecoin resilience amid macro caution. As a financial analyst eyeing blockchain trends, this whale-driven move, paired with commodity status, positions Shiba Inu for sustained interest, particularly if altcoin season accelerates. In summary, strategic buying and regulatory tailwinds provide a solid base, though overbought signals warn of a pause. Also Read: Shiba Inu Price Drops Amid Whale Exit & Crypto Market Gains
20 Mar 2026, 09:42
$1.97B BTC, ETH Options Expiry Puts Focus on Key Market Price Levels
Nearly $2B in BTC and ETH Options expire today, with max pain levels at $70K and $2,150 respectively. $75K emerges as a key resistance for BTC ahead of larger quarterly expiry, while $60K–$65K zones act as support. Low volatility and cooling on-chain activity signal cautious sentiment as traders await next week’s major expiry. A large batch of Bitcoin Options and Ethereum Options is set to expire today, which might be instrumental for the short-term price action in the derivatives market. Data from Greeks.live shows that contracts associated with both BTC and ETH options are nearing settlement, with a combined notional value close to $1.97 billion. BTC and ETH Options Expiries and Its Implications The bulk of this expiry is mostly in Bitcoin options. Around 23,000 BTC contracts are due to settle, i.e., roughly $1.6 billion in value. The put-to-call ratio stands at 0.88, indicating a slightly higher share of bullish positions compared to bearish ones. At the same time, the so-called “max pain” level, the price at which the greatest number of options expire worthless, is estimated near $70,000. 【3月20日期权交割数据】 2.3万张BTC期权到期，Put Call Ratio为0.88，最大痛点70000美元，名义价值16亿美元。 17.6万张ETH期权到期，Put Call Ratio为1.04，最大痛点2150美元，名义价值3.7亿美元。… pic.twitter.com/jdShJJTivR — [email protected] (@BTC__options) March 20, 2026 Ethereum options are also part of the expiry cycle, though on a smaller scale. Roughly 176,000 ETH contracts, valued at about $370 million, are set to expire. Here, the put-to-call ratio sits at 1.04, and suggests a more balanced or slightly cautious positioning among traders. The max pain level for ETH is placed around $2,150. These expiries come at a time when the overall market has already shown signs of fatigue. Bitcoin, after trying to surge in recent sessions, has struggled to maintain momentum above key resistance levels. As per Adam’s analysis: 75K is the price with the most concentrated open interest and represents a significant resistance level. This level has captured a considerable share of open interest – and especially that related to end-of-month payouts. Recent price action points to the pressure. Bitcoin momentarily dipped below the $70,000 level before settling close to it. The inability to sustain a breakout over resistance can lead to a pullback, with traders changing their expectations in the short term. Traders are now looking beyond today’s expiry for quarterly options settlement due on March 27, which is expected to be more important. Quarterly expiries typically involve several times the volume of weekly contracts. They often lead to increased trading activity as positions are rolled forward or closed. Data from the options market suggests that $75,000 remains the most crowded strike price for Bitcoin in the upcoming cycle. On the downside, several price bands between $65,000 and $60,000 show high open interest. These areas may act as support if selling pressure piles up. On the other hand, implied volatility for Bitcoin options has held around 50%, and Ethereum’s sits near 70%. Realised volatility has declined in recent sessions, which narrows the gap between expected and actual price movement. This has led to a rise in the volatility risk premium, which shows a market that is pricing in uncertainty but not yet experiencing sharp swings. Trading activity on-chain has also cooled. Transfer volumes are decreasing, and fee generation is slowing. Long-term holders seem to be trading cryptos at a lower clip, but miners keep selling a steady share of newly minted tokens. These trends indicate an active, but not overheated, market. In derivatives markets, sentiment is turning somewhat more cautious. The skew, which is a measure of the difference between the price of call and put options, has softened. This reflects lower demand for upside exposure and a more balanced take on risk. Today’s expiration may serve as a temporary anchor for prices. Typically, assets tend towards the max pain level as they approach settlement, driven by hedging activity from large market participants. Once the deals go away, that influence usually disappears, and prices run more slackly. Yet the overall picture is still closely connected with positioning and liquidity. Only a small portion of total open interest is expiring in this cycle, which limits the direct effect. On the other hand, due to relatively low trading activity, any sudden inflow or outflow could have an outsized effect. As the market moves toward next week’s quarterly expiry, attention is likely to shift toward how traders reposition. That transition often brings higher volumes and sharper price swings, thus, the options market reflects a cautious stance. Also Read: Chainlink Price Risks $9 Breakdown as Bear Flag Pattern Emerges
20 Mar 2026, 09:41
XRP Bleeds $76M in Weekly Outflows as Capital Rotates Into Ethereum, Solana
The recent CoinShares weekly report revealed that XRP products recorded outflows last week, a stark contrast from Ethereum and Solana.
20 Mar 2026, 09:40
VanEck Mid-March 2026 Bitcoin ChainCheck
Summary The 30-day average bitcoin price fell 19%, but spot prices stabilized as realized volatility dropped from 80 to 50 and futures funding rates declined from 4.1% to 2.7%. The put/call open interest ratio averaged 0.77, its highest since June 2021, while put premiums relative to spot volume hit an all-time high of 4 basis points. Transfer volume fell 31%, daily fees dropped 27%, and long-term holder distribution slowed, while miners sold roughly all newly issued BTC. Bitcoin ( BTC-USD ) stabilized after a 19% drawdown as futures leverage cooled, options demand for downside protection hit cycle highs, and miner selling stayed contained. Please note that VanEck has exposure to bitcoin. Bitcoin ChainCheck Monthly Dashboard and Highlights Source: Artemis XYZ, Glassnode as of 3/13/2026. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Not intended as a recommendation to buy or sell any securities named herein. 1 30-day change & 365-day change are relative to the 30-day avg, not absolute. Price Action and Volatility Bitcoin markets entered a period of consolidation over the past month as volatility declined and derivatives positioning remained subdued. While spot prices stabilized following the earlier drawdown, the 30-day average BTC price remained 19% below the prior period, reflecting weaker prices earlier in the month. Realized volatility fell sharply from roughly 80 to just above 50, suggesting speculative trading activity cooled significantly during the period. Realized volatility measures actual observed price swings over a given period, as opposed to implied volatility, which reflects the market’s forward-looking expectations. Futures markets show a similar dynamic. Funding rates averaged 2.7%, down from 4.1% the prior month, while average BTC futures open interest declined 1% month-over-month, suggesting leverage remains subdued even as market conditions begin to stabilize. The combination of falling volatility and declining leverage is consistent with a post-stress positioning reset, as traders de-risk and funding premiums normalize. Options Positioning Bitcoin options markets suggest investors remain defensive. Total options open interest rose to $33.4B (+3% m/m), indicating derivatives exposure remains elevated even as futures leverage has cooled. The put/call open interest ratio, which compares the volume of bearish options bets to bullish ones, peaked at 0.84 and averaged 0.77, the highest level since June 2021, when China banned bitcoin mining. At current levels, the ratio sits in the 91 st percentile of observations since mid-2019, highlighting unusually strong demand for downside hedging relative to bullish positioning. The put/call open interest ratio averaged 0.77, its highest since June 2021, sitting in the 91st percentile of observations since mid-2019. Demand for Downside Protection Traders continue to pay significant premiums for downside protection. Total premiums paid to purchase puts declined 24% month-over-month, but at $685M over the past 30 days, they remain above 77% of monthly observations since the start of 2025. Relative to spot volume, put premiums reached an all-time high of roughly 4 basis points, roughly 3x the levels seen in mid-2022 following the Terra/Luna stablecoin collapse and the Ethereum ( ETH-USD ) staking liquidity crisis. Meanwhile, premiums paid to purchase calls fell 12% to approximately $562M, extending their recent weakness and highlighting a shift toward defensive positioning. Despite declining volatility, investors continue allocating significant capital toward hedging downside risk. Put Premiums Relative to BTC Spot Volume Reached 2x Previous Cycle All-Time High Source: Glassnode, VanEck Research as of 3/13/2026. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Not intended as a recommendation to buy or sell any securities named herein. Options Skew and Volatility Premium Not only is demand for protection elevated, the cost of that protection is rising. For the 30-day period ending March 3, 2026, the put/call premiums paid ratio reached 2.0, the highest level since summer 2022. Implied volatility on puts averaged ~66, approximately 16 points above realized volatility of ~50 and roughly 17 points above implied call volatility. This differential ranks in the 89 th percentile since August 2019, indicating that puts are substantially more expensive than calls as investors aggressively hedge downside risk. This level of implied volatility skew has historically been associated with positive forward BTC returns over both short and longer time horizons. Over the past 6 years, skew readings in this decile have corresponded to average BTC returns of +13% over the following 90 days and +133% over the subsequent 360 days, compared with average BTC returns of -4.6% and +102%, respectively. The table below divides all historical options skew readings into 10 equal buckets (deciles), from D1 (puts cheapest relative to calls) to D10 (puts most expensive). The current reading falls in D9, the second-highest bucket. For each decile, the table shows the average bitcoin return over the following 90 and 360 days, along with how that return ranks against all other deciles. D9 has produced the strongest average 90-day return (+13.2%, ranked #1) and the 3rd-strongest 360-day return (+133.2%), suggesting that extreme put demand at current levels has historically preceded meaningful price recoveries. Current Skew is in the D9 Decile Decile 90d Mean (%) 90d Rank 360d Mean (%) 360d Rank D1 (Most Negative) -30.50 10 176.30 2 D2 -11.00 7 221.90 1 D3 9.30 2 41.90 10 D4 6.50 3 60.00 7 D5 -4.00 6 45.90 9 D6 -21.80 9 87.80 6 D7 -12.00 8 105.00 4 D8 5.20 4 90.90 5 D9 13.20 1 133.20 3 D10 (Most Positive) -1.10 5 59.80 8 Overall BTC Average -4.6 N/A 102.2 N/A Source: Glassnode as of 3/13/2026. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Not intended as a recommendation to buy or sell any securities named herein. In plain terms: when options markets have been this fearful in the past, bitcoin has tended to recover. The current level of defensiveness, while warranted by recent price action, has historically marked periods closer to market bottoms than tops. Onchain Network Activity Onchain activity, which measures transactions settled directly on the bitcoin blockchain, declined broadly month-over-month across most major network indicators. Over the past 30 days: Transfer volume declined 31% Total daily fees fell 27% Daily active addresses declined 5% Mean transaction fees dropped 40% Total transaction count was the one bright spot, rising modestly during the period. Muted network activity suggests limited speculative participation directly onchain, though this dynamic may also reflect the increasing role of offchain trading venues, derivatives markets, and ETPs. As Bitcoin becomes more financialized, a growing share of trading activity occurs without generating onchain settlement transactions. Traditional network activity metrics may therefore capture a shrinking share of total market activity compared with earlier cycles. Long-Term Holder Distribution Long-term holder selling appears to be slowing, a potentially constructive signal. Transfer volume declined month-over-month across every age cohort, indicating that older coins (which tend to represent long-term investors and early holders) are being spent less frequently. Declining transfer activity among these cohorts typically signals reduced distribution pressure from experienced market participants. This reduction in long-term holder spending coincided with a decline in active long-term Bitcoin supply from 31% to 30%, suggesting that a slightly smaller share of circulating BTC has transacted recently. Transfer Volume Fell for Each Age Band Source: Glassnode as of 3/13/2026. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Not intended as a recommendation to buy or sell any securities named herein. Miner Economics Economic pressure on bitcoin miners intensified during the past month. Total miner revenues declined 11%, while bitcoin mining equities fell roughly 7%, reflecting weaker profitability across the sector. Despite this deterioration in economics, miners did not meaningfully increase selling pressure. Miner outflows to exchanges rose only 1% in BTC terms, suggesting most operators are attempting to preserve their remaining reserves rather than aggressively liquidating holdings. Industry developments highlight growing strategic shifts within the mining sector. Bitdeer has sold its entire BTC treasury, while Core Scientific, MARA, and others have signaled plans to monetize holdings as they pivot toward AI infrastructure businesses. These moves underscore the increasing capital pressures facing miners as the economics of pure-play Bitcoin mining tighten. Total miner balances (excluding wallets attributed to Satoshi Nakamoto, bitcoin’s pseudonymous creator) currently sit at approximately 684,000 BTC, down only ~0.5% year-over-year. Over the same period, roughly 164,000 new BTC were mined, suggesting miners effectively sold the entire newly issued supply. Aggregate miner balances have been gradually declining since late 2023, indicating that the industry has steadily distributed coins to fund operations and capital expenditures. Should Bitcoin prices remain depressed, miners may be forced to accelerate BTC sales to cover recurring dollar-denominated costs, potentially increasing supply pressure. Total Miner BTC Holdings Have Been Falling Since Fall 2023 Source: Glassnode as of 3/13/2026. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Not intended as a recommendation to buy or sell any securities named herein. Trader Profit and Loss Trailing 30-day realized profit and loss, which tracks the net value of coins sold above or below their purchase price, offers an additional lens into investor sentiment. Elevated realized losses typically coincide with capitulation during late-stage drawdowns, while declining realized losses may signal seller exhaustion, a precondition for price stabilization. Monitoring this metric alongside the derivatives signals discussed above may help identify inflection points where selling pressure fades and a floor begins to form. Trailing 30-Day Realized Profit and Loss Source: Glassnode as of 3/13/2026. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Not intended as a recommendation to buy or sell any securities named herein. Market Structure Conclusions Taken together, current market dynamics suggest: Cooling speculative leverage in futures markets Elevated demand for downside hedging in options markets Subdued onchain activity as trading shifts toward ETPs and derivatives Declining distribution from long-term holders Moderate but manageable miner supply pressure While bitcoin prices have stabilized in recent weeks, investor positioning across derivatives and onchain activity remains cautious, suggesting markets may still be consolidating following earlier volatility. Frequently Asked Questions What does the bitcoin put/call ratio indicate about market sentiment? The put/call open interest ratio measures the relative demand for downside protection (puts) versus bullish bets (calls). At 0.77, the current ratio sits in the 91 st percentile of all observations since mid-2019, indicating that investors are unusually defensive. Historically, extreme readings in this metric have preceded meaningful price recoveries, with average 90-day returns of +13% when the ratio reaches this decile. Why is bitcoin onchain activity declining even as prices stabilize? Onchain transaction volume and fees have declined because a growing share of bitcoin trading occurs through offchain venues, including derivatives markets, centralized exchanges, and ETPs. As Bitcoin becomes more financialized, traditional network metrics capture a shrinking portion of total market activity, making them less reliable as standalone sentiment indicators compared to earlier market cycles. Are bitcoin miners selling their holdings? Bitcoin miners have been gradually reducing their holdings since late 2023, with aggregate balances (excluding Satoshi) currently at approximately 684,000 BTC. While miners have effectively sold all newly issued supply over the past year (roughly 164,000 BTC), outflows to exchanges rose only 1% month-over-month, suggesting most operators are managing reserves conservatively rather than aggressively liquidating. Disclosures Definitions Bitcoin ((BTC)) is a decentralized digital currency without a central bank or single administrator. It can be sent from user to user on the peer-to-peer Bitcoin network without intermediaries. S&P 500 Index is a stock market index of 500 of the largest companies listed on stock exchanges in the United States. Risk Considerations This is not an offer to buy or sell, or a recommendation to buy or sell any of the securities, financial instruments or digital assets mentioned herein. The information presented does not involve the rendering of personalized investment, financial, legal, tax advice, or any call to action. Certain statements contained herein may constitute projections, forecasts and other forward-looking statements, which do not reflect actual results, are for illustrative purposes only, are valid as of the date of this communication, and are subject to change without notice. Actual future performance of any assets or industries mentioned are unknown. Information provided by third party sources are believed to be reliable and have not been independently verified for accuracy or completeness and cannot be guaranteed. VanEck does not guarantee the accuracy of third party data. The information herein represents the opinion of the author(s), but not necessarily those of VanEck or its other employees. Index performance is not representative of fund performance. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. Investments in digital assets and Web3 companies are highly speculative and involve a high degree of risk. These risks include, but are not limited to: the technology is new and many of its uses may be untested; intense competition; slow adoption rates and the potential for product obsolescence; volatility and limited liquidity, including but not limited to, inability to liquidate a position; loss or destruction of key(s) to access accounts or the blockchain; reliance on digital wallets; reliance on unregulated markets and exchanges; reliance on the internet; cybersecurity risks; and the lack of regulation and the potential for new laws and regulation that may be difficult to predict. Moreover, the extent to which Web3 companies or digital assets utilize blockchain technology may vary, and it is possible that even widespread adoption of blockchain technology may not result in a material increase in the value of such companies or digital assets. Digital asset prices are highly volatile, and the value of digital assets, and Web3 companies, can rise or fall dramatically and quickly. If their value goes down, there’s no guarantee that it will rise again. As a result, there is a significant risk of loss of your entire principal investment. Digital assets are not generally backed or supported by any government or central bank and are not covered by FDIC or SIPC insurance. Accounts at digital asset custodians and exchanges are not protected by SPIC and are not FDIC insured. Furthermore, markets and exchanges for digital assets are not regulated with the same controls or customer protections available in traditional equity, option, futures, or foreign exchange investing. Digital assets include, but are not limited to, cryptocurrencies, tokens, NFTs, assets stored or created using blockchain technology, and other Web3 products. Web3 companies include but are not limited to, companies that involve the development, innovation, and/or utilization of blockchain, digital assets, or crypto technologies. All investing is subject to risk, including the possible loss of the money you invest. As with any investment strategy, there is no guarantee that investment objectives will be met and investors may lose money. Diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss in a declining market. Past performance is no guarantee of future performance. © Van Eck Associates Corporation Original Post
