hodler

21 Jan 2026, 00:38

Asset Manager SkyBridge Prepares For Choppy Markets, Keeps Faith In Bitcoin

Alternative asset manager SkyBridge Capital is leaning harder into macro trades as policy uncertainty under President Donald Trump keeps markets jumpy, founder Anthony Scaramucci said in Davos, where investors are again pricing bigger swings across rates, currencies and risk assets. Scaramucci, speaking at the Reuters Global Markets Forum on the sidelines of the World Economic Forum, said the firm has benefited from that churn. “Because of the volatility, the macro traders have done better,” he said. The shift shows up in SkyBridge’s own portfolio mix. The SkyBridge Opportunity Fund moved to a macro weighting of about 69% by Sept. 30, 2025, after sitting at roughly 65% in cryptocurrency and digital assets as of March 31, 2025, filings show. Even so, Scaramucci stuck to his long-running view that Bitcoin’s big picture remains intact, even after a sharp slide from last year’s peak. “This is more of a timing issue than a direction issue. I don’t think the fundamental story for Bitcoin has changed. If anything, you’ve seen a lot of consolidation,” he said. Leverage Unwind Leaves Lasting Scars Across Crypto Bitcoin’s 2025 ride left deep marks on the market’s plumbing. The token surged to an all-time high of more than $126,000 in October, then tumbled in a liquidation-heavy washout that saw more than $19B in forced unwinds across leveraged positions. By Wednesday, Bitcoin last traded around $88k, roughly 30% off that October record, a drawdown that tested the conviction of traders who had positioned for a cleaner policy runway in Washington. Scaramucci said the crypto industry, himself included, got ahead of itself on regulation after last year’s election cycle, expecting a faster reset in how Washington writes the rules for digital assets. SkyBridge Strikes Cautious Tone Amid Policy Delays The US did land a stablecoin framework, the GENIUS Act became law in July 2025, but the broader market structure effort, often framed as the Clarity Act, is still moving through the Senate, leaving exchanges and issuers to navigate a slower timeline than many had expected. That gap is one reason SkyBridge is keeping its stance measured, even while staying constructive on bitcoin’s long-term trajectory. “I’m cautiously optimistic. I think we’ll have an OK year,” Scaramucci said. Away from SkyBridge’s fund positioning, Scaramucci and his son AJ have also put capital to work in the Bitcoin economy itself. Solari Capital, founded by AJ Scaramucci, led a $220M funding round in July in American Bitcoin, the Trump-linked mining and treasury firm, and the Scaramuccis told Fortune they have invested more than $100M in the company. The post Asset Manager SkyBridge Prepares For Choppy Markets, Keeps Faith In Bitcoin appeared first on Cryptonews .

21 Jan 2026, 00:28

Fundstrat’s Lee sees 'painful' start to 2026 before late-year rebound

Fundstrat’s Tom Lee, who is also the chair of Ethereum treasury firm BitMine, still expects Bitcoin to set a new high this year.

21 Jan 2026, 00:25

Crypto Fear & Greed Index Plummets to 24: A Stark Descent into Extreme Fear Territory

BitcoinWorld Crypto Fear & Greed Index Plummets to 24: A Stark Descent into Extreme Fear Territory Global cryptocurrency markets entered a pronounced state of anxiety on March 21, 2025, as the widely monitored Crypto Fear & Greed Index recorded a sharp eight-point drop to a value of 24. This critical shift officially moved overall market sentiment from ‘Fear’ into the ‘Extreme Fear’ zone, a psychological threshold that often precedes significant volatility and heightened investor caution. The index, a composite metric developed by data provider Alternative.me, serves as a crucial barometer for the emotional temperature of the crypto ecosystem. Decoding the Crypto Fear & Greed Index Plunge The Crypto Fear & Greed Index functions as a multifaceted gauge, synthesizing data from six distinct sources to produce a single sentiment score ranging from 0 to 100. A score of 0 represents maximum fear, while 100 indicates extreme greed. The current reading of 24 sits deep within the ‘Extreme Fear’ classification, which the model defines as scores between 0 and 25. The index’s methodology is transparent and weighted as follows: Volatility (25%): Measures current price swings against historical averages. Market Momentum/Volume (25%): Analyzes trading volume and momentum. Social Media (15%): Tracks sentiment and volume on platforms like Twitter and Reddit. Surveys (15%): Incorporates data from periodic market sentiment polls. Dominance (10%): Monitors Bitcoin’s share of the total crypto market cap. Trends (10%): Analyzes Google search volume for cryptocurrency-related terms. The sudden eight-point decline suggests simultaneous negative pressure across several of these metrics. For instance, increased price volatility coupled with a surge in bearish social media commentary and potentially declining search interest can collectively drive the index lower. This data-driven approach moves beyond anecdotal evidence to provide a quantifiable snapshot of market psychology. Contextualizing Extreme Fear in Cryptocurrency Markets Historically, periods of ‘Extreme Fear’ on the index have correlated with market capitulation and potential local price bottoms, though they are not guaranteed predictors. To understand the significance of a 24 reading, it is instructive to examine historical parallels. The index famously hit single-digit levels during the market troughs following the 2018 bear market and the collapse of the Terra-Luna ecosystem in mid-2022. Conversely, it soared above 90 during the peak euphoria of late 2017 and early 2021. The current descent into extreme fear likely stems from a confluence of recent macroeconomic and industry-specific factors. Rising global interest rates, persistent inflation concerns, and regulatory uncertainty in major economies continue to pressure risk assets, including cryptocurrencies. Additionally, network-specific events, such as unexpected selling pressure from large holders or concerns about protocol upgrades, can exacerbate negative sentiment. Market analysts often view extreme fear as a potential contrarian indicator, suggesting that excessive pessimism may have already been priced into asset valuations. Expert Analysis on Sentiment and Market Cycles Seasoned market observers emphasize that sentiment indicators like the Fear & Greed Index are tools for context, not timing. “The index is excellent for identifying the prevailing emotional state of the market,” notes a veteran crypto analyst from a major financial research firm. “A reading of 24 tells us fear is dominant, but it doesn’t tell us if the selling is over. It must be analyzed alongside on-chain data, such as exchange flows and holder behavior, and fundamental macroeconomic trends.” This perspective highlights the importance of a multi-faceted analytical approach. Furthermore, the index’s ‘Extreme Fear’ zone has often preceded periods of accumulation by long-term investors, who view such sentiment extremes as buying opportunities within a broader strategic framework. The Mechanics and Impact of Market Sentiment The psychological state of market participants directly influences trading behavior. During ‘Extreme Fear’ phases, retail investors are more likely to sell assets at a loss, driven by panic and the fear of further declines. This selling pressure can create a self-reinforcing cycle, temporarily depressing prices below levels justified by network fundamentals or adoption metrics. Conversely, institutional players may use these periods to execute strategic accumulation plans, acquiring assets at a perceived discount. The index’s components reveal specific pressure points. A spike in volatility (25% weight) directly lowers the score. Similarly, if Bitcoin’s dominance (10% weight) rises sharply during a market downturn, it signals a ‘flight to safety’ within crypto, where capital exits altcoins for Bitcoin, further depressing the overall sentiment score. Monitoring these sub-components provides a more nuanced understanding than the headline number alone. The table below illustrates the index’s sentiment classifications: Index Value Range Sentiment Classification 0 – 24 Extreme Fear 25 – 49 Fear 50 Neutral 51 – 74 Greed 75 – 100 Extreme Greed This structured framework allows investors to quickly assess the market’s emotional temperature. It is crucial to remember that sentiment is a lagging indicator, reflecting current conditions rather than predicting future ones. However, its extreme readings often mark important psychological inflection points in market cycles. Conclusion The Crypto Fear & Greed Index’s decline to 24 serves as a clear, data-backed signal that extreme fear has gripped the cryptocurrency market. This shift reflects a complex interplay of volatility, social sentiment, and macroeconomic headwinds. While historically such levels have sometimes indicated oversold conditions, they primarily underscore a period of high risk aversion and emotional trading. For market participants, this index provides a valuable, neutral framework for understanding crowd psychology, complementing fundamental and technical analysis. The journey out of ‘Extreme Fear’ territory will depend on evolving market data, regulatory developments, and broader financial stability. FAQs Q1: What does a Crypto Fear & Greed Index score of 24 mean? A score of 24 falls within the ‘Extreme Fear’ range (0-24), indicating that current market data and sentiment metrics reflect a high degree of pessimism, panic, or risk aversion among cryptocurrency investors. Q2: Who creates the Crypto Fear & Greed Index and how is it calculated? The index is created by data provider Alternative.me. It is calculated using a weighted formula incorporating volatility (25%), market volume/momentum (25%), social media sentiment (15%), surveys (15%), Bitcoin dominance (10%), and Google search trends (10%). Q3: Is the Extreme Fear level a good time to buy cryptocurrency? While extreme fear has historically coincided with market bottoms, it is not a standalone buy signal. It suggests potential oversold conditions but must be evaluated alongside fundamental analysis, on-chain data, and personal risk tolerance. It can indicate a period for strategic accumulation for long-term investors. Q4: How often does the Crypto Fear & Greed Index update? The index updates daily, providing a near real-time snapshot of shifting market sentiment based on the previous 24 hours of data from its source components. Q5: Has the index been accurate in predicting market turns in the past? The index is a measure of current sentiment, not a predictive tool. However, its extreme readings (both fear and greed) have often marked emotional peaks and troughs that aligned with significant market reversals, making it a useful contrarian indicator when used with other analyses. This post Crypto Fear & Greed Index Plummets to 24: A Stark Descent into Extreme Fear Territory first appeared on BitcoinWorld .

21 Jan 2026, 00:14

Red Everywhere: Stocks Stumble, Bitcoin Slips Below $88K as Tariff Fears Bite

On Jan. 20, U.S. equities logged one of their roughest single-day pullbacks in three months as selling swept across every major index. The Dow Jones Industrial Average bore the brunt, chalking up the day’s steepest decline with an 870.74-point slide. Crypto assets weren’t spared either, as bitcoin-linked stocks also felt Tuesday’s sting. Dow Suffers Worst

21 Jan 2026, 00:01

U.Today Crypto Review: Can Bitcoin (BTC) Survive $90,000? Shiba Inu (SHIB) Key Support Lost; XRP's Last Defense Line

Geopolitical risks rising here and there are certainly the signal that crypto bears were expecting to keep pushing the market down.

21 Jan 2026, 00:00

Bitcoin Recovers In January: Funding Divergence Points To A Spot-Driven Market

Bitcoin is trying to hold above the $91,000 level as the market searches for support, but demand remains fragile after weeks of volatility. While the recent decline has pressured sentiment, a CryptoQuant report suggests January is still shaping up as a recovery phase rather than a full breakdown. The analysis points to cautious optimism driven by institutional and whale-level accumulation, while retail participation remains hesitant and risk-averse. According to Binance-related data, Bitcoin’s spot price action and funding rates have started to diverge in early 2026, signaling a spot-driven market environment. This setup is often viewed as constructive because it implies the latest move is being supported more by real spot buying than by excessive leverage in derivatives. In practice, a spot-led trend tends to reduce the risk of sudden liquidation cascades, which have recently amplified downside moves across the crypto market. CryptoQuant notes that spot-driven conditions can also create more durable rallies, since they attract organic inflows and allow price to climb without relying on unstable speculative positioning. Historical comparisons to the 2021 and 2024 cycles show similar divergences between spot strength and muted funding rates often preceded extended upside expansions, ranging from 20% to 50%. Is the Four-Year Bitcoin Cycle Breaking Down? The CryptoQuant report raises a bigger question that many investors are now debating: is the traditional four-year Bitcoin cycle starting to fade? As the market matures, analysts argue that the old post-halving pattern may no longer apply in the same way. Since 2024, spot Bitcoin ETFs and corporate treasuries have been absorbing a growing share of supply, potentially creating steadier demand and reducing the boom-and-bust dynamics that defined prior cycles. This argument gained traction in 2025. Despite being a post-halving year, Bitcoin failed to deliver the type of parabolic rally seen in previous cycles, while altcoins also struggled to produce a true “altseason.” That divergence has led some analysts to conclude that halvings are becoming less dominant as a driver, especially now that Bitcoin trades as a $2T+ macro asset. Instead, market direction may be increasingly shaped by global liquidity conditions, including Federal Reserve policy, M2 growth, geopolitical risk, and large-scale institutional flows. Analysts like Raoul Pal have framed this as a shift toward longer liquidity cycles that could last five years or more, reinforcing the idea that the four-year framework may be outdated. The report also highlights Binance as a critical reference point. Historically favored by whales, Binance remains a major leading indicator for broader crypto market positioning and flows. Bitcoin Weekly Chart Signals Fragile Recovery Bitcoin is attempting to stabilize after weeks of heavy selling pressure, but the weekly structure still reflects a market fighting to reclaim lost ground. BTC is trading near $91,075 after printing a sharp weekly pullback, reinforcing that volatility remains elevated even as price tries to base. The recent rebound from the sub-$85,000 region shows buyers stepping in aggressively, yet the recovery still looks fragile while broader macro uncertainty keeps risk appetite limited across crypto. From a technical perspective, Bitcoin is hovering around the zone where previous support has flipped into resistance. Price is currently sitting near the rising 100-week moving average (green), which is acting as a key pivot for bulls. Holding above this level would signal that demand is strong enough to absorb supply during dips. However, the 50-week moving average (blue) has rolled over and remains above price, highlighting that the broader trend has not fully reset bullish momentum. The 200-week moving average (red) continues to trend higher far below current levels, confirming the long-term uptrend remains intact. For now, the market likely needs a clean weekly reclaim above $95,000 to shift sentiment. Until then, this bounce risks being treated as corrective rather than trend-confirming. Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com