hodler

19 Jan 2026, 17:23

6 Distinct Prediction Markets Favor Bitcoin’s $100K Path as Downside Bets Divide

Across Myriad, Kalshi, and Polymarket, prediction traders are converging on a familiar conclusion: bitcoin looks far more likely to flirt with six figures than collapse into deep drawdown territory anytime soon. The $100K-or-Bust Framing Takes Hold On Myriad, the market bluntly titled “ Bitcoin’s next move: Pump to $100K or Dump to $69K?” shows traders

19 Jan 2026, 17:14

If XRP Falls, Here’s the Multi-Year Support Trendline to Watch Next

While XRP has corrected alongside the rest of the crypto market, a crucial multi-year support trendline has emerged should steeper declines play out. XRP has dropped by more than 10% since its $2.19 high on Jan. Visit Website

19 Jan 2026, 17:13

Crypto Surge: Market Turmoil Unravels Bold Projections

Bitcoin's fall has led to significant losses in altcoins. Analyst Sherpa revised his bullish stance on HYPE Coin. Continue Reading: Crypto Surge: Market Turmoil Unravels Bold Projections The post Crypto Surge: Market Turmoil Unravels Bold Projections appeared first on COINTURK NEWS .

19 Jan 2026, 17:11

Strategy's Preferreds: Only One Worth Buying

Summary Strategy's preferred stocks are evaluated, with a focus on STRC, STRK, STRF, and STRD for investment merit. MSTR's business model relies on capital raises to accumulate Bitcoin, lacking operational income to support fixed obligations during BTC downturns. STRD is rated Buy among the preferreds, despite lacking cumulative dividends or conversion features, due to its risk/reward profile and current market pricing. Dividend coverage appears secure in the short-to-medium term, but long-term sustainability is highly dependent on BTC performance and ongoing capital access. It's time for me to discuss Strategy's ( MSTR ) preferred stocks. While I've discussed the common at length, I've not done a proper thesis on these preferred securities. They include: Variable Rate Series A Perpetual Stretch Preferred Stock ( STRC ) - "Stretch" 8.00% Series A Perpetual Strike Preferred Stock ( STRK ) - "Strike" 10.00% Series A Perpetual Strife Preferred Stock ( STRF ) - "Strife" 10.00% Series A Perpetual Stride Preferred Stock ( STRD ) - "Stride" Stream (STRE) is another but trades in Europe and isn't available to retail investors, so I will only make passing mentions without analysis. Otherwise, my goal here is to see which of these four is the most reasonable investment. Summary of the Common - MSTR I think it will help to explain my feelings about the preferreds if I recap how I feel about MSTR first. I last covered it in late October on the heels of their earnings call. I rated it Hold and have never rated it Buy. Q3 2025 Earnings Presentation The reason is simple. Aside from the original software business, Strategy has virtually no operations. It raises capital and accumulates Bitcoin ( BTC-USD ), aiming to accumulate faster than it dilutes. That's even the point of this preferred share issuance. MSTR 6M Returns (Seeking Alpha) Without operating income to support the business on BTC's downside, what we see are magnified losses on MSTR, particularly as it forces them to sell common at an NAV discount (mNAV Seniority and Capitalization The first thing to consider is how these issues rank next to each other in the capitalization and how large they are on the balance sheet. STRF: Most senior STRC STRK STRD: Most junior Size of Capitalization (Q3 2025 Form 10Q) As of Q3 2025 , these preferred series accounted for $5,786M of the capitalization, compared to $15,502M in liabilities and what was, at that time, $73,619M in assets (nearly all BTC). The preferred issues are therefore a small part of the overall balance sheet, being something of a later addition to the financing strategy. We see that each of the issues has about $1B to $2B in redemption value and liquidation preference as well. All of them have ATM capacity that can still be used, with $119M raised earlier this month through STRC specifically. Remaining ATM capacity is largely meant to support shareholders who use a DRIP plan, so Q4's balance and Q1's have likely grown this (in addition to the STRE offering). Liquidation Preference, Redemption Value, and Conversion All four issues were issued at a stated value of $100 per share, and they also contain terms with liquidation preferences and redemption values of $100 per share too. There are some important details that can be found in the latest Form 10Q and their offering documents . All four liquidate at $100 or market price, whichever is higher. Redemptions by the company generally adhere to the liquidation preference, plus any accumulated dividends. In case of a "fundamental change" in Strategy (such as a merger or takeover), shareholders may force a redemption for $100 (officially, $100 plus unpaid but declared dividends). Only STRK contains a provision for conversion into MSTR, at 0.1 per share. Effectively, this is a conversion price of $1,000 per share. Coupons and Yields The preferred issues have the following coupon rates, followed by recent market yields . STRF: 10%, 9.55% STRC: Variable, 11% STRK: 8%, 9.24% STRD: 10%, 12.88% STRC is the only dividend paid monthly instead of quarterly. Similarly, it is the only variable dividend. Its variability is tricky. The company basically raises or cuts its price in response to the market price. The idea is to stabilize its value near $100 by manipulating the yield. They can change this every month, but they are "required" (again, this isn't debt) to cut only by 25 BPS. An exception is allowed if SOFR changed by more than 25 bps in that period. Some might wonder why STRD yields higher, in spite of its equal coupon to STRF. My best guess is that this is a risk premium created by the market, as STRD is the only issue that lacks cumulative dividends. All others accumulate dividends at their regular schedule, which can be received in liquidation or redemption if unpaid. Outlook, Valuation, and Comparison Currently, it seems like Strategy is having a rough go. Nevertheless, the near-term outlook is that their dividend can be covered. I'll just cite the most recent metrics from their website . Share and Dividend Metrics (Strategy Home Page) Following BTC's price decline and new MSTR sales at lower prices to cover their growing dividend obligations, mNAV is barely above 1 right now. Q3 2025 Earnings Presentation This follows what had already been a trend of declines in months prior as BTC declined, creating a magnified effect on MSTR. Technically, the mNAV went below 1x for a brief time, so this is a slight stabilization. In the Q3 earnings call , the plan to pay dividends was described as such: Right now, our dividends and interest on our convertible notes totaled $689 million annually. And our primary strategy when our mNAV is above 1x is to fund that through ATM issuances. And just to remind everybody, in the last 12 months, we've issued about $27 billion of equity, which means that, that's about the $650 million or so is about 2.6% of how much equity we've raised. So we clearly have the ability to raise equity to cover our dividend payments and our interest. I suppose this explains why MSTR still has several months of dividend coverage, at least for now. I suspect they will continue to have the means to cover their dividend in the short-to-medium term. Long-term, I think this remains impossible to say because there are no meaningful operations to sustain cash flows, and it will depend heavily on the future of crypto and BTC by then. Moving along, in addition to the yields that I mentioned before, we can also note the share prices of each. Market Price Comparisons (Seeking Alpha) STRF: $104.75 STRC: $100.01 STRK: $86.59 STRD: $77.62 So taking into account all four of the preferred shares, which do I think is a Buy? The answer is STRD. While it lacks the convertible feature, I haven't rated the common a Buy because its long-term future is speculative and vulnerable to dilution. Conversion in preferred stock isn't very enticing. Similarly, the lack of cumulative dividends isn't a decisive feature either. My guess is that failure to pay dividends hints at systemic failure to raise capital, putting all preferred stock in danger. In that case, I see it being more likely that Strategy closes shop and liquidates. As STRD both yields the most and trades at the sharpest discount to that $100 liquidation preference, it seems to me like the best value and reasonable income security at 12.88%. Risk Factors I feel like they've been sprinkled throughout this piece already, but I can spell the risk factors anyway. Strategy lacks operating cash flow to pay dividends The time between cessation and dividends and liquidation could be long A BTC crash could destroy enough of the balance sheet that the shares don't liquidate at stated value These require a major failure of BTC, and Strategy cannot control the market for BTC. Conclusion I have generally been skeptical of Strategy's use of capital for BTC accumulation. Of all their securities, STRD seems like the best-priced one and is generally capable of paying its dividend. The preferred features give some principal safety if it fails. For these reasons, it's the only one of the preferred I could think of buying.

19 Jan 2026, 17:10

A crypto trader turned $285 into $627,000 in one day, but some say the game was rigged

A wallet linked to a pump.fun memecoin turned $285 into a small fortune on Monday, reviving concerns about insider activity during the latest memecoin surge.

19 Jan 2026, 17:07

Bitcoin Hash Rate Slips Below 1 ZH/s as Miners Face Growing Profitability Pressure

Bitcoin (BTC) mining is facing renewed strain as the hash rate dropped below a crucial threshold not seen since late 2025. One expert believes that AI demand and manufacturer-led expansion are reshaping network participation. StandardHash CEO and founder Leon Lyu warned of a major change unfolding in the Bitcoin mining landscape after the network’s seven-day average hash rate fell below 1 ZH/s for the first time since September last year. Miners Retreat In a post on X, Lyu stated that the decline indicates mounting pressure on miner profitability, while a negative difficulty adjustment of approximately 4.34% is expected in roughly three days. He attributed the drop to several structural factors, including large mining firms reallocating power capacity away from Bitcoin mining toward artificial intelligence compute services in pursuit of higher margins. Lyu also highlighted the growing influence of mining hardware manufacturers, as he noted that Bitdeer is aggressively deploying its own proprietary rigs and is gearing up to become the largest North American miner by hash rate. Additionally, he said Bitmain appears to be expanding its own mining footprint through secondary channels and partnerships, even as the overall network hash rate trends lower. Lyu’s comments come at a time when the competition for energy has intensified between BTC miners and artificial intelligence data centers. In recent years, several publicly listed mining firms have disclosed plans to repurpose or co-locate mining infrastructure for high-performance computing and AI workloads. At the same time, grid operators and regulators in the US and Europe have flagged rising power demand from AI data centers, which often secure long-term electricity contracts. Industry reports have shown that AI facilities typically generate considerably higher revenue per megawatt than Bitcoin mining, which has increased pressure on miners during periods of low hashprice. This trend has accelerated power reallocation decisions across energy-constrained regions. BTC Mining’s Toughest Year These developments follow a difficult year for Bitcoin miners. In December, TheMinerMag observed that the BTC mining industry faced one of its toughest periods last year. The publication said miners were dealing with the “harshest” profit margins in the industry’s 15-year history. In 2025, even large, publicly listed companies struggled to cover costs. Mining revenue fell sharply as hashprice, which measures earnings from computing power, dropped from about $55 per unit to around $35. The report described this level as a long-term low rather than a short-term decline. The situation worsened after BTC’s price fell from its record high of nearly $126,000 in October, which put further pressure on already-strained mining operations. The post Bitcoin Hash Rate Slips Below 1 ZH/s as Miners Face Growing Profitability Pressure appeared first on CryptoPotato .