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29 May 2026, 19:04

Coinbase: Great Business, But Not Enough Margin Of Safety Yet

Summary Coinbase had a soft Q1, but the long-term platform story remains intact. Coinbase still reached an all-time high in crypto trading volume market share. CLARITY, Deribit, and new futures products could support long-term growth. I rate COIN a Hold because the upside is not enough for the risk. Introduction Coinbase Global, Inc. ( COIN ) has had a rough start to 2026, with the stock peaking around $444 in the 52-week range and currently trading near $175.69, down 60% since its peak. The Q1 2026 results on May 7 didn't really help, although shares briefly moved from roughly $196 to $217 in a couple of days, but they're down by 19% since then. In Q1, total crypto market capitalization and trading volumes both fell more than 20% QoQ, while Bitcoin and Ethereum prices came down, volatility dropped, and retail traders went quiet. SA But Coinbase is not just an exchange anymore, since the company is the largest crypto custodian in the world ( storing more than 12% of all crypto globally ), the distribution engine behind USDC (the second-largest stablecoin), the operator of Base (a blockchain that processed 99% of agentic stablecoin transaction volumes in Q1), and the owner of Deribit (the largest crypto options exchange in the world). It is now expanding into prediction markets, retail derivatives, equities, commodity futures, and U.S. equity index perpetual futures, launching June 8. The company calls this strategy the "Everything Exchange" and I actually believe that this expansion, trying to have different sources of revenue, is very positive for a company in a volatile environment like Coinbase. Operating Snapshot: The Context Behind My Thesis Digging into the earnings results to better understand how the business is doing, Coinbase had a rough Q1 2026. Total revenue came in at $1.41 billion, down 21% QoQ and 31% YoY, with a net loss of $394 million, and adjusted EBITDA dropping to $303 million, down 46% QoQ. But I don't think the earnings release only had bad news, because Coinbase's trading volume market share hit an all-time high in Q1, even while the crypto market collapsed more than 20% QoQ. I am not saying this offsets the weak numbers I said before, but even during a bad cycle, the business was able to grow market share. Coinbase Compared to the estimates, Q1 2026 was disappointing. Total revenue missed estimates by $66 million, and normalized EPS missed by $1.53. According to FactSet, transaction revenue was $755.8 million vs. the expected $805.2 million, while subscription and services revenue was $583.5 million vs. the expected $619.3 million. Adjusted EBITDA was $303 million vs. a consensus near $407 million. In my opinion, revenue and EBITDA missed clearly, but it is important to understand the context. The miss came from weaker crypto prices and lower volatility, which crushed trading activity across the entire industry, and not from Coinbase losing its competitive position. So I believe that the company is well positioned for a recovery in the crypto market. SA Coinbase's crypto trading volume market share hit an all-time high of 8.6% in Q1 2026, up from 8.0% in Q4 2025. Transaction revenue fell 23% QoQ, but total crypto market volumes fell 28% QoQ and spot volumes fell 37% QoQ, so Coinbase outperformed the market, which is a positive sign in my opinion. But I have to be honest about the other side too: assets on the platform fell to $294 billion from $376 billion at year-end, so users and assets did feel the pressure of a down market. But share is the metric I care about the most, because even in a bad environment, customers are still picking Coinbase over the competition. There is also the Subscription & Services line, where revenue was $584 million in Q1, or 44% of net revenue, with stablecoin revenue alone at $305 million, driven by an all-time high of $19 billion in average USDC held in Coinbase Products. S&S still dropped 14% YoY, and parts of it depend on interest rates, crypto prices, and staking reward rates, but it is materially more durable than transaction revenue, and management calls it "a durable buffer to volatility," (see Q1 2026 Update linked above), and I think that is the right way to describe it. If 44% of net revenue is less tied to trading activity, the cycles hurt less. Valuation: Not Enough Margin Of Safety Yet As I usually do in my articles, I built a scenario analysis using the EPS estimates that Seeking Alpha provides. I took the 2026 and 2027 consensus EPS of $1.22 in 2026 and $4.95 in 2027 and applied them to three scenarios: Base case: I assumed a 43x P/E non-GAAP, which is the 5-year average that the company traded at. Bull case: I assumed 50x P/E, which is close to where the stock ended 2025. Bear case: I assumed 26x P/E, close to the number the company closed 2024, and also closer to the median of its peers. Author A 43x multiple on $4.95 of 2027 EPS lands me at $212.85, which is a little bit more conservative than where the average target sits today at Yahoo Finance (around $233). At the current price of $175.69, my base scenario gives an implied upside of roughly 21%. Considering the risks and volatility involved in the stock, I don't think this margin of safety is enough to rate Coinbase a Buy, so I rate Coinbase a Hold. Looking at the Seeking Alpha grades (A for Profitability, D- for Valuation, C- for Growth), I see a business with good margins but very expensive and with some growth issues to work on. I understand crypto is a volatile market, and a soft Q1 was going to drag the trailing numbers down, but the valuation doesn't give me much margin of safety either. The profitability profile is close to a top-tier software company, not a traditional financial, and it is what justifies paying Coinbase's 5-year average multiple of 43x in my base case. But putting all three grades together, I see a high-quality business, full price, and growth that needs to recover before the multiple gets cheaper. The Catalysts That Keep Me Interested At the JP Morgan TMC conference that happened on May 20, President & COO Emilie Choi confirmed that the CLARITY Act advanced out of the Senate Banking Committee on a bipartisan basis, which she called "very, very unusual." Management sees a path for the bill to be signed this summer, and I wouldn't be surprised if that happens. I want to be clear that this is still management's expectation, not a done deal, but I see a meaningful upside if that happens. Emilie also framed stablecoins as just one part of the crypto opportunity, citing last year's GENIUS stablecoin bill as an example, with CLARITY potentially opening the broader market for tokenized assets and clearer rules of the road between the SEC and CFTC. Regulation has been one of the biggest overhangs on this stock since the IPO. If it actually clears this summer, the multiple could get a re-rating, and a lot of institutional money that has been sitting on the sidelines can finally plug in. Another important catalyst, in my opinion, is the Deribit integration. Coinbase closed the deal in 2025 , and at the JP Morgan conference, Emilie Choi said the technical integration should be complete by year-end 2026. For those who don't know, Deribit is the largest crypto options exchange in the world, and the combined platform gives Coinbase a global pool of liquidity that competitors cannot easily match. In my opinion, this integration is very important to consolidate the Everything Exchange. Also, on May 21, Coinbase announced the launch of the first perpetual-style equity index futures listed on a U.S.-regulated exchange, starting June 8. The initial contracts track AI, China, defense, and the top Nasdaq companies. That is a brand-new product category, and Coinbase is the first to bring it to a U.S.-regulated venue. What Keeps Me On The Sidelines On the Q1 outlook slide, management reported roughly $215 million of transaction revenue through May 5, and that covers a little more than the first third of Q2. Even with the company itself warning to be cautious about extrapolating, the math is not great in my opinion. If Coinbase continues to deliver the same results, Q2 transaction revenue could come in well below Q1's $756 million, which could hurt the stock price. The crypto market has been quiet, volatility is low, and these factors hurt transaction revenue. Coinbase has captured about 50% of USDC economics over the past year, and stablecoin revenue is now a large piece of the S&S line. I think there are two risks worth flagging. First, the underlying Circle Agreement is not an unconditional perpetuity, since the initial term is multi-year with renewal conditions, and the structure could be renegotiated over time. Management commentary suggests current terms remain intact, but this is a contract I am keeping an eye on. Second, the revenue is rate-sensitive, since a large portion comes from the yield on USDC reserves. If interest rates drop meaningfully, the yield drops with them, S&S is directly impacted, and the Q4 2025 letter itself flagged this dynamic when reserve rates fell after the October and December cuts. Great Company, Not My Entry Point I believe that Coinbase is in better shape than it appears, with market share at an all-time high, S&S at 44% of net revenue, and the Everything Exchange showing early evidence of working. The catalysts that I mentioned are also becoming real, with CLARITY advancing, Deribit on track, and equity index perpetual futures launching June 8. But my base case puts fair value around $213, only about 21% above today's price, while the bear case would imply meaningful downside. For a stock with this much volatility and a soft Q2 likely on the way, and an EPS estimate for 2027 more than 4x the 2026 estimate, that is not a wide enough margin of safety for me. So I am at Hold. I like the company and the long-term direction; I just do not like the entry point.

29 May 2026, 19:02

Pundit to XRP Holders: Do Not Be Scared of XRP Price Action Right Now

Crypto pundit X Finance Bull (@Xfinancebull) took to X to address XRP’s recent price volatility. He told investors not to be afraid of the asset’s price movements, noting that short-term drawdowns do not change the long-term case. Rather than focusing on charts or daily candles, he broke down the structural forces he believes are reshaping global finance. The result was a detailed argument for why XRP is more relevant now than at any previous point in its history. Do not be scared of $XRP price action right now. HEAR ME OUT Because what I'm about to show you is why this drawdown changes nothing about where this asset is heading. I went deeper than I ever have on camera. Not about charts. Not about daily candles. About the… https://t.co/nxtqjR11uh pic.twitter.com/JaApwFDhkp — X Finance Bull (@Xfinancebull) May 28, 2026 The Infrastructure Argument The core of X Finance Bull’s case rests on what he describes as a failure of legacy financial rails . The current system, built decades ago, was not designed for the speed or complexity of a digital economy. AI is changing how businesses operate. Tokenized assets are moving onto blockchain. Stablecoins are replacing wire transfers. Machine-to-machine payments are becoming real. He argues that none of this can run efficiently on existing infrastructure. “The AI era needs a new financial layer,” he said in the video. “It needs speed. It needs liquidity. It needs interoperability.” His position is that XRP fills that gap because it is a neutral bridge between currencies, settles instantly, and operates at sub-cent costs. According to his post, XRP is already part of institutional conversations with Mastercard, JPMorgan, and seven government CBDC programs. Decentralization as a Requirement The video goes further than a simple investment thesis. X Finance Bull connects the rise of AI directly to the need for decentralized financial systems. As AI becomes more powerful and institutions gain greater control over data, spending, and access, he argues that decentralization becomes essential. He presents XRP as a bridge not just between currencies, but between the old financial system and the emerging digital economy . Stablecoins, tokenized assets, and blockchain-based settlement all require interoperability. XRP, in his view, is built to provide it. We are on X, follow us to connect with us :- @TimesTabloid1 — TimesTabloid (@TimesTabloid1) June 15, 2025 Why the Community Holds XRP X Finance Bull’s post spoke directly to investor sentiment. The XRP community, he wrote, “doesn’t flinch at a red week.” He attributes that conviction to a deeper understanding of infrastructure, partnerships, and the distinction between price and value. The video frames recent price action as noise against a signal that continues to strengthen. X Finance Bull told investors to look past the current market cycle entirely. “This is bigger than crypto. This is the new financial operating system being built in real time.” When global demand for instant settlement and decentralized rails fully arrives, XRP will not appear to have been a speculative bet. It will look like the only logical answer . Disclaimer : This content is meant to inform and should not be considered financial advice. The views expressed in this article may include the author’s personal opinions and do not represent Times Tabloid’s opinion. Readers are advised to conduct thorough research before making any investment decisions. Any action taken by the reader is strictly at their own risk. Times Tabloid is not responsible for any financial losses. Follow us on X , Facebook , Telegram , and Google News The post Pundit to XRP Holders: Do Not Be Scared of XRP Price Action Right Now appeared first on Times Tabloid .

29 May 2026, 19:01

CFTC Clears The Way For Regulated Crypto, Bitcoin Perpetuals—Kalshi Moves Next

The US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) announced Friday that it is allowing CFTC-registered exchanges to list a perpetual contract tied to the market’s leading crypto, Bitcoin (BTC). CFTC Ramps Up Crypto Perpetual Access In its announcement, the CFTC said the move creates a clearer path for liquid Bitcoin perpetual products to operate within US rules. The agency also framed the change as aligned with President Trump’s stated goal of cementing the United States as the world’s crypto capital, calling the availability of true perpetuals within the country a major advance. The announcement also comes alongside a separate regulatory action: the CFTC issued a no-action letter to crypto exchange Coinbase. According to the regulator’s guidance, the letter allows Coinbase’s US customers to access the options and perpetuals the company already offers. Coinbase Chief Legal Officer Paul Grewal called the development a “massive first for the industry” in a post on X (Previously Twitter), saying it reflects an effort to bring “proven global products under American regulation,” which he argued is key to making the US a leading hub for crypto. Kalshi Announces Perpetual Futures In response to the regulatory shift, Kalshi announced Friday that it plans to launch perpetual futures contracts, beginning with crypto perpetuals. The company positioned its entry as providing US traders with a regulated alternative to offshore platforms. Kalshi said the offshore perpetual market expanded sharply, rising from $28 trillion in annual volume in 2023 to more than $90 trillion in 2025. The prediction market platform indicated that regulation will be the differentiator for its crypto product. The firm said funding rates will be charged every eight hours and will be visible in transaction history. It also clarified that agricultural commodity perpetuals will not be included in the initial lineup. Featured image created with OpenArt; chart from TradingView.com

29 May 2026, 19:00

Solana Moves Into New Market With Latest Update, But Can This Move Price Above $100?

Solana’s institutional footprint just got meaningfully larger, though the price action has yet to follow. Forward Industries, the Nasdaq-listed SOL treasury company, is set to join the Russell 2000 and Russell 3000 indexes. The timing makes the update interesting because Solana itself is still fighting to recover stronger momentum . SOL is currently trading around $80, and although the $100 level is not far in percentage terms, the price action still makes that target look difficult . Solana Moves Into New Market Forward Industries, a publicly traded company that transformed from a medical product manufacturer into the world’s largest corporate holder of Solana, has announced it is going to join the Russell 2000 and Russell 3000 indexes when FTSE Russell’s semi-annual reconstitution takes effect on June 29, 2026. Related Reading: What Solana’s 108% Growth Means For Its Price Outlook Forward Industries currently holds 7,013,536 SOL, worth approximately $624 million, making it the largest public corporate SOL holder at about 1.121% of the total supply. The company has positioned itself as a Solana-focused digital asset treasury company, with a strategy built around buying, holding, staking, and investing in SOL and SOL-related assets. That makes the Russell inclusion important for the broader SOL ecosystem. The Russell 3000 tracks the largest US public companies by market capitalization, and the Russell 2000 tracks the top 2000 companies. Once Forward Industries enters these indexes, Solana-linked exposure will sit inside a market structure followed by passive funds, small-cap investors, and institutional portfolio managers. The move is also important because Forward Industries’ strategy as a Solana treasury company depends heavily on the cryptocurrency’s long-term value. If SOL performs well, the company’s treasury model will become more attractive to investors. If demand for Solana-based assets grows as expected, then Forward Industries could become one of the public-market vehicles investors might be interested in for exposure to Solana. Forward is not the only crypto-based company making a move into the Russell indexes. Ethereum treasury firm SharpLink , which holds 874,351 ETH valued at around $1.8 billion, will also be reconstituted into the Russell 2000 and 3000 indexes during the same rebalance, while BitMine and Galaxy Digital are expected to join the Russell 1000. SOL Price Still Has Work To Do Before $100 The Forward Industries development is bullish for Solana in a broad sense, and the price action might react positively when the listings on the indexes go live. However, the problem for SOL is that the price action is not displaying the kind of strength that would make $100 look imminent. SOL is still trading just above $80, which means it needs a rally of more than 20% to move back to $100. Related Reading: Analyst Says Solana And XRP Investors Are In Trouble, What’s Going On? Solana has struggled to sustain upside momentum, and every attempt to push higher has had to deal with resistance, with the most recent example being a rejection around $98 on May 11. Should SOL maintain its footing at $85 and clear $90, a move to $98 to $100 may follow.

29 May 2026, 18:59

XRP rebounds 4.7 percent to $1.33 as ETH faces scrutiny

🚀 $XRP surged 4.7 percent to $1.33 while ETH faced critical debate. XRP’s rapid rebound followed a sharp drop to $1.27. Continue Reading: XRP rebounds 4.7 percent to $1.33 as ETH faces scrutiny The post XRP rebounds 4.7 percent to $1.33 as ETH faces scrutiny appeared first on COINTURK NEWS .

29 May 2026, 18:49

XRP at a Crossroads: Can It Break Out of $1.3 Range and Rally Past $3?

XRP is navigating a critical consolidation phase in late May 2026, trading between $1.35–$1.36 amid bearish market sentiment.