Invest ideasNews
23 Apr 2026, 12:27
BNB Price Prediction: If Crypto Is Dead, why Binance Clears $1.09 Trillion in 112 Days?
BNB price is doing well, and even our prediction model says so. While crypto obituaries keep circulating on social media, Binance quietly processed over $1.09 trillion in volume across 112 days. Binance Trading Volume, Coingecko BNB has been grinding through a “boring zone” at $620-$650. It’s a tight range with subdued headlines, deceptively active accumulation underneath. Recent 48-hour data shows more than $90 million USDT in trading volume, with interests clustering near the $625–$640 resistance band. Bitcoin’s weekly 5% gain is lifting altcoins, giving BNB a tailwind, but the MACD is softening, which complicates the bullish read. As we know, altcoin strength hinges entirely on Bitcoin movement. The technical setup is more nuanced than the current price, with BNB having the most holders across L1 ecosystems. BNB Chain is #1 in Token Holders BNB Chain currently leads all L1 blockchains with 329.5 million token holders, accounting for 18.9% of global market share, surpassing Ethereum at 17.7%. pic.twitter.com/yXC7mmwaxk — MOMO (@momobsc_) April 23, 2026 Discover: The best crypto to diversify your portfolio with BNB Price Prediction: $700 This Week BNB 7-day SMA holds at $632, and the 100-period SMA sits below at $629, acting as a tight floor. The price is coiled between these levels in a classically ambiguous structure, with a finished head-and-shoulders pattern as the price starts to recover. BNB USD, TradingView Key resistance is still sitting at $640 as the daily pivot, with meaningful supply clustered at $627–$660. Immediate support is tight at $620, then $610–$600, and a more significant demand zone at $507 if macro conditions deteriorate sharply, which has a razor-thin chance, but can happen. The MACD weakening while volume rises is an unusual divergence; it either resolves as a false breakdown before a surge or confirms distribution near resistance. Watch the $630 close for directional confirmation. Discover: The best pre-launch token sales Bitcoin Hyper New BNB? BNB at $634 represents a mature, large-cap asset with real utility, but also real ceiling constraints at the current market cap. Capturing another 10x from here requires the kind of macro tailwind that lifts entire cycles. There’s a different risk profile than finding asymmetric exposure earlier in the curve. Some traders are rotating into earlier-stage in frastructure plays while BNB consolidates, looking for leverage that the large-cap can’t provide. Bitcoin Hyper ($HYPER) is one project drawing that capital. It’s positioned as the first Bitcoin Layer 2 with Solana Virtual Machine (SVM) integration. HYPER is a technical combination that aims to deliver faster throughput than Solana while inheriting Bitcoin’s security. The presale has raised $32.5 million at a current token price of just $0.013679 , with 36% APY staking available now, only for presalers. Bitcoin’s $1.8 trillion market cap sits on slow, expensive, non-programmable rails, while BTC Hyper’s decentralized canonical bridge and low-latency execution layer are designed to change that. Explore Bitcoin Hyper here. The post BNB Price Prediction: If Crypto Is Dead, why Binance Clears $1.09 Trillion in 112 Days? appeared first on Cryptonews .
23 Apr 2026, 12:13
Coinbase: Bitcoin's Rising Tide Masks A Retail Moat In Structural Decline
Summary Coinbase has underperformed both IBIT (+59.6%) and the S&P 500 (+51.9%) since January 2024, delivering crypto volatility without the full crypto upside. Retail transaction revenue, its profit engine, faces structural erosion from Hyperliquid's DEX volumes, Binance's dominance, and secular fee compression. The two key subscription growth drivers, USDC and ETH staking, are constrained by USDT's 70% market dominance and declining staking yields of ~2.9%, respectively. At 38x FY2027E P/E versus IBKR's 27.7x and HOOD's 32x, COIN is a hold—tactically supported by rebounding crypto but lacking a re-rating catalyst. Coinbase ( COIN ) has historically been one of the few regulated and publicly listed vehicles through which institutional investors could gain exposure to the crypto space, apart from investing in Bitcoin ( BTC ) itself. Today, there are many other solid ways to get crypto exposure (even in size), so the appeal via scarcity has diminished. By investing in COIN, not only are we looking to gain exposure to crypto but also through a financial infrastructure intermediary company, which may often be an inefficient method to capture alpha in the underlying sector. Below, we can observe that the stock trades with a high correlation to crypto prices—Bitcoin in particular. However, since the inception of iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF ( IBIT ) in January 2024, COIN has in fact underperformed holding BTC via the ETF. Data by YCharts The business model Coinbase operates through two main segments—transaction revenue, and subscription and services revenue. 1. Transaction revenue accounted for $4.1B or ~56%, of total revenue in FY2025. Within this segment, Consumer contributed the vast majority (~82%), while Institutional and other transaction revenue were ~12% and ~6% of segment revenue, respectively. 2. Subscription and services revenue accounted for $2.8B or ~39%, of total revenue in FY2025. Stablecoin revenue made up the bulk of this segment at ~48%, followed by blockchain rewards at ~24%, and the rest, which included interest and finance fee income and other subscription and services revenue, added up to ~28% of segment revenue. Overall, FY 2025 total revenue reached $7.2B, growing 9% Y/Y, while adjusted EPS jumped 24.6% Y/Y to $2.19. Company A two-year lesson in capital misallocation Suppose an investor was seeking crypto exposure and was making an allocation choice in January 2024 when the iShares Bitcoin Trust was launched. Investing in IBIT would have yielded a total return of 59.6% (or 22.83% average annual return), while COIN would only have returned 38.8% (or 15.51% average annual return), losing out to SPY's 51.9% total return. This is a meaningful underperformance as investing in COIN would neither have fully captured equity growth nor the crypto beta cleanly. Instead, the investor would have been exposed to the jarring volatility associated with crypto assets while being in a margin compressed and regulated financial intermediary. The stock jumped on the inclusion into the S&P 500 in May 2025, but it proved to be fleeting as it now trades back to similar levels. Tethered to the cyclicality of crypto volumes As depicted in the chart below, crypto trading volume tends to follow closely with prices—peak volume in October 2025 coincided with peak prices in Bitcoin in the same month. Volume has since faltered, while Bitcoin has corrected nearly 40% from $126K. Coinbase relies mainly on consumer/retail transactions for fee generation, which carry significantly higher fee rates (up to 60bps). We believe fee compression is a general trend in most financial markets, and because competitors overall already have much lower blended fee rates, we see little reason for Coinbase to not lower their charges to match peers in the future. According to data from The Block, Binance still facilitates the lion's share of crypto trading volume, with ~30% of total volume in March being traded there. Bybit is second with ~7% share, while Coinbase is third at ~6% share. Coinbase's monthly market share has been mostly stable around ~5%–~6%, while other smaller platforms in aggregate have eroded Binance's market share from high 30s to 30. The Block The Block The rise in popularity of DEX A notable example would be the arrival of Hyperliquid since launching in 2023. By 2025, it had already surpassed Coinbase in notional trading volume for perpetual contracts. In 2025, it recorded $2.6T in notional trading volume, vastly superior to Coinbase's $1.4T. Total perpetuals volume reached $7.9T in 2025. According to The Block, Hyperliquid handles >6% of total exchange as of April and is on a rising trend. Year-to-date, Hyperliquid has driven $0.77T in cumulative perpetual volume, or $2.56T if annualized. The strategic response from Coinbase was its acquisition of a large centralized options trading platform, Deribit, in August 2025. Deribit processed over 80% of total Bitcoin options volume in October 2025, while the average volume share is around 70%. Deribit competes in the options segment, which is predominantly used by more sophisticated institutional clients as opposed to retail traders who prefer directional, leveraged trading in perpetuals. So, this acquisition is unlikely to resolve the disruption brought by DEX. The Block The Block Stablecoin growth still lacks clarity Coinbase's stablecoin revenue mainly rests on the USDC adoption. While being the largest regulated USD-denominated stablecoin in circulation, USDC has yet to make enough headway to dethrone its much larger brethren, USDT. According to DefiLlama , USDT in circulation is $188.5B (~70% market share) versus USDC's $77.9B (~29% market share), as of April 22. Despite the regulatory tailwind, USDT still has its first-mover and liquidity advantage, particularly driven by demand across Asia and Africa. The recently advanced Digital Asset Market Clarity Act has yet to provide enough clarity on stablecoin law, especially when it comes to yield. As of now, issuers like Circle are prohibited from paying USDC holders any interest. But, providing incentives linked to digital asset activity appears to be the workaround for now. There is still ongoing debate as to whether such rewards should be classified as interest. But for Coinbase, there is meaningful revenue implication. Stablecoin revenue rose 48% Y/Y in FY2025 and relies on USDC adoption to be successful. Without offering interest or incentives for holding or using USDC, adoption could falter and directly impact the company's revenues. Blockchain rewards facing compression Participation in the blockchain often rewards staking yield, which has helped contribute $677M in revenue for Coinbase in FY2025, down 4% Y/Y. Most of the staking yield should come from Ethereum, which has generally offered low to mid single-digit yields post-Merge. Currently, ETH staking yield sits at ~2.9%, according to Staking Rewards . Similarly, the BlackRock ETHB staking ETF offers a 2.8% yield, as of February 18. The yield can fluctuate depending on network activity and, most importantly, the staking participation rate. Liquid restaking introduces enhancements to plain-vanilla ETH staking by offering layered yield strategies. These strategies can carry additional risk but can offer varying degrees of incremental yield. Sophisticated users may opt to move away from Coinbase's staking platform to self-directed LRT protocols in search of higher yield. However, we have observed that yield spreads on LRTs have materially declined to ~1%. Declining operating leverage Total revenue in 4Q25 fell 22.2% Y/Y, while transaction revenue dropped 36.8% Y/Y to $982.7M. But operating expenses rose 41% Y/Y to $1.3B as headcount grew 3% Y/Y on top of surging SG&A and R&D expenses. The market predicts capex to reach $144M in FY2026E and rise to $159M in FY2027E, from virtually zero in FY2024 as a result of the Deribit acquisition and infrastructure investment. This should weigh on FCF in the coming years. Valuation and verdict If we look towards the outer years in FY2027E/FY2028E, both revenue and EPS noticeably improve. The market is discounting FY2026E with modest declines in revenue and a larger drop in EPS due to reverse operating leverage. The year has started lackluster in 2026, correcting from a peak in October 2025. But crypto assets have meaningfully rebounded from March lows, helped by fresh highs in U.S. equities and optimism from a potential resolution of the U.S.-Iran conflict. That said, the stock trades at an FY2027E P/E of 38x and an FY2027E EV/EBITDA of 13.9x. Compared with its broker peers, IBKR trades at 27.7x FY2027E P/E, while HOOD trades at 32x FY2027E P/E. Coinbase is more richly valued, but this is a premium that is increasingly difficult to justify. While COIN has built a strong moat around regulated crypto dealing, its retail business, from which it makes most of its profit, has come under intense competition. On the other hand, we believe its institutional franchise is a bright spot where the company serves as a crypto asset custodian for many institutional products. On balance, we think COIN is a Hold until valuations or fundamentals improve. In the near term, it is likely to benefit from rebounding crypto assets. Metric FY 2024A FY 2025A FY 2026E FY 2027E FY 2028E Revenue (Adj.) $6,564M $7,181M $6,976M $8,394M $8,740M Revenue YoY % +111.2% +9.4% -2.9% +20.3% +4.1% EBITDA (Adj.) $3,348M $2,808M $2,463M $3,466M $3,687M EBITDA Margin 51.0% 39.1% 35.3% 41.3% 42.2% EPS (Adj.) $9.48 $4.45 $3.18 $5.14 $6.05 EPS (GAAP) $9.48 $4.45 $2.92 $5.37 $6.40 Source: Company, market estimates, Himalayas Research estimates
23 Apr 2026, 11:49
Losses from Zondacrypto crash exceed $95M as Polish exchange halts withdrawals
Customers of the troubled digital-asset exchange Zondacrypto may be entitled to financial compensation from the state despite the lack of proper crypto regulation in Poland. Local media highlighted the option in reports that traders have lost access to at least 350 million złoty worth of funds on the platform, which restricted withdrawals amid issues with solvency. Poland launches investigation into Zonda’s crash Polish law enforcement authorities are now looking into the case of Zondacrypto, a major exchange on the local market that stopped processing client transactions amid liquidity issues. Prosecutors unveiled this week they have identified hundreds of potential victims whose losses may exceed 350 million zloty (over $95 million). A spokesman for the prosecutor’s office stated: “We are currently talking about several hundred people, but this number is constantly growing … The scale of the possible fraud is very large.” The news came amid mounting complaints by users unable to reach their holdings, worrying revelations about Zonda’s financial state, employee layoffs and executive resignations. Concerns about its solvency started growing earlier in April when an analysis conducted by the market intelligence firm Recoveris found that the platform had lost over 99% of its reserves. While rejecting media reports quoting the study, and maintaining the exchange remains stable, its CEO Przemysław Kral admitted the company does not have access to a wallet with 4,500 BTC. According to the chief executive, missing founder Sylwester Suszek never handed over the key to the wallet holding over $330 million worth of bitcoins at the time of his announcement . Suszek established the cryptocurrency company as BitBay back in 2014, the Notes from Poland portal recalled in a report on Tuesday. It was sold to a U.S. investor and rebranded as Zondacrypto in 2021, with management transferred to Kral, who expanded the business, including through active advertising and sponsorship in sports. Suszek disappeared in March the following year. Founded in Poland, Zonda now operates under an Estonian license. Zonda ceases operations amid layoffs and resignations While Zondacrypto is yet to formally declare bankruptcy, termination agreements sent to employees cite “complete liquidation” as the reason for their release, Bankier.pl revealed Wednesday. Documents seen by other Polish media outlets, such as the financial news website Money.pl, also indicate the crypto company is ceasing operations. All members of the supervisory board of the platform’s operator, BB Trade Estonia, resigned last week. Their departures were followed by the resignations of its compliance and cybersecurity directors. According to laid-off employees contacted by the press, the exchange is in a state of disarray. Some of their accounts suggest debt to customers may ultimately exceed 500 million zloty. Meanwhile, some media reports alleged that Zonda’s CEO may have disappeared, too. Kral hasn’t commented publicly on the fate of the company he was running since mid-April. Zondacrypto users may apply for compensation, expert says Some 30,000 clients may have been affected by the collapse of the leading Polish crypto exchange amid suspicions of fraud, according to one estimate. While Poland is yet to comprehensively regulate its digital-asset market, provisions in existing Polish law allow customers to seek compensation for their losses from the state. “There will be lawsuits – against the company itself, against members of its governing bodies, but this is also where things get really interesting – against the State Treasury,” a lawyer told Bankier.pl. According to the legal expert, Jan Ziomek, these may be filed in both Poland and Estonia and customers have strong grounds for such claims. He advised users to gather all available data, including balance confirmations, transaction histories as well as any correspondence with customer service. Polish politicians, mainly from the ruling center-left coalition led by Prime Minister Donald Tusk, have been trying to link their losses to the absence of dedicated crypto legislation. A government-proposed bill designed to implement the EU’s MiCA rules has been rejected twice by President Karol Nawrocki and failed to overcome his veto again last week, as reported by Cryptopolitan. Your keys, your card. Spend without giving up custody and earn 8%+ yield on your balance with Ether.fi Cash.
23 Apr 2026, 11:48
Institutions buy 370,000 BTC as exchange supply hits record low
🚨 Institutions snapped up 370,000 BTC as exchange supply fell to a multi-year low. April saw spot ETFs accumulate 1.3 million BTC, about 7% of all BTC. 🧠 Critical development: Institutional demand is outpacing mining, shifting $BTC towards long-term holders. Continue Reading: Institutions buy 370,000 BTC as exchange supply hits record low The post Institutions buy 370,000 BTC as exchange supply hits record low appeared first on COINTURK NEWS .
23 Apr 2026, 11:35
Shiba Inu (SHIB) Sees 86 Billion Removed in 24 Hours: Will Centralized Exchanges Fall?
Shiba Inu exchange outflows are piling up with a potential market rally continuation.
23 Apr 2026, 11:25
Kalshi Cracks Down on Political Insider Trading, Bans Three US Candidates
Prediction market platform Kalshi has suspended three US political candidates after finding they traded on the outcomes of elections in which they were directly involved, describing the cases as “political insider trading.” The actions follow the rollout of new safeguards designed to prevent candidates from betting on their own races. Candidates Caught Betting on Themselves The three individuals identified are Matt Klein, a sitting Minnesota State Senator running in the Democratic primary for the state’s 2nd Congressional District; Ezekiel Enriquez, a Republican primary candidate in Texas’s 21st Congressional District; and Mark Moran, a Democratic candidate in Virginia’s US Senate race. In Klein’s case, Kalshi said its systems flagged that he traded a small amount, less than $100, on contracts tied to his own candidacy. The platform confirmed his identity using internal data and open-source intelligence, and Klein cooperated with the investigation and ultimately agreed to a settlement that included a $539.85 fine and a five-year suspension from the platform. Enriquez was similarly found to have purchased under $100 worth of contracts tied to his own election. Kalshi pre-emptively blocked his trading after detection. He, too, later cooperated with the investigation and accepted a $784.20 penalty in addition to a five-year ban. Moran’s case, on the other hand, involved multiple trades across two markets related to his campaign, including one placed before formally announcing his candidacy and additional trades afterward. Kalshi said Moran initially acknowledged the violations but later stopped responding and refused to settle. As a result, he received a higher penalty of $6,229.30, was ordered to return any profits, and was also banned for five years. Offering his version of events, Moran said that he deliberately placed the bets on himself on Kalshi to test whether the platform would act against him and how it would respond. He claimed he wanted to draw attention to what he described as corruption and manipulation in prediction markets. According to Moran, he initially engaged with Kalshi’s compliance team but refused settlement terms that included a fine, a ban, and a requirement to make a public statement, citing First Amendment protections against compelled speech. He even went on to add that he expected the situation to generate attention. No Exceptions for Low-Value Bets Kalshi said all three cases violated its CFTC-approved Rule 5.17(z), which prohibits individuals with direct or indirect influence over an event’s outcome from trading on related contracts. The platform noted that while the trades were relatively small, any such activity is subject to enforcement. It further added , “Cases like these demonstrate Kalshi’s commitment to policing all types of unfair or improper trading on our platform. Regardless of the size of a trade, political candidates who can influence a market based on whether they stay in or out of a race violate our rules. No matter how small the size of the trade, any trade that is found to have violated our exchange rules will be punished.” These issues are not limited to Kalshi. In fact, concerns around insider activity in prediction markets have grown , particularly on its rival, Polymarket. CryptoPotato has extensively reported on controversial bets being placed on major geopolitical outcomes shortly before they happened. The post Kalshi Cracks Down on Political Insider Trading, Bans Three US Candidates appeared first on CryptoPotato .
