hodler

3 Feb 2026, 08:29

Strategy’s Bitcoin Bet Slips Below Key Breakeven Point As Treasury Giant Buys Another $75 Million In BTC

Strategy’s massive Bitcoin stack showed unrealized losses for the first time in years, as the top crypto momentarily dropped.

3 Feb 2026, 08:25

Bitcoin and crypto rally as ISM manufacturing index hits two-year high

An important gauge measuring America’s factory secto r ju st reached its strongest level in more than two years, and some cryptocurrency watchers believe this could mean better days ahead for Bitcoin, which currently sits around $78,000. The Institute for Supply Management released numbers on Monday showing its Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index climbed to 52.6 in January. That number crushed expectations, which had been hovering near 48.5, and marked the first time in over two years that the manufacturing sector showed growth instead of decline. The last 26 months had all registered contraction. Analysts see potentia l Bi tcoin turnaround Investors and the Federal Reserve pay close attention to this measurement when making decisions about the economy’s direction, inflation concerns, and interest rate policies. When the number crosses above 50, it means factories are expanding. Below 50 signals they’re pulling back. The manufacturing index hasn’t been this high since August 2022. ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index Source: Trading Economics . People who follow Bitcoin think this strong factory number might help the digital currency bounce back after it dropped to $75,442 on Monday, its lowest point in 10 months. Looking at past trends, the manufacturing index and Bitcoin’s price moved together quite closely between mid-2020 and 2023. When one went up or down, the other often followed. Joe Burnett, who works as vice president of Bitcoin strategy at Strive, said that “Historically, these PMI reversals mark the shift to risk-on conditions.” He pointed out that Bitcoin jumped higher when the manufacturing index improved in 2013, 2016, and 2020. Another Bitcoin watcher using the name Plan C added: “If you don’t upgrade your understanding of the Bitcoin cycle from the 4-year halving mirage mindset to a business cycle / macro mindset fast… You will miss the boat completely on the second massive leg of this Bitcoin bull market!” However, Benjamin Cowen, who runs Into The Cryptoverse, noted that the connection between Bitcoin and manufacturing doesn’t always hold up , saying that “Bitcoin is not the economy.” Last year provided a clear example of this disconnect. While the manufacturing index stayed weak or flat for several months, Bitcoin kept climbing toward its peak of $126,080. Rough stretch for cryptocurrency markets Bitcoin has gone through a rough patch recently. On Oct. 10, a major shakeout hit cryptocurrency markets when more than $19 billion worth of leveraged positions got wiped out suddenly. Since hitting its October peak, Bitcoin has fallen nearly 38% to its current price. During this same stretch, gold and stocks have mostly moved upward, leaving Bitcoin investors feeling discouraged. Wall Street firms can’t agree on where Bitcoin goes from here in 2026. Dragonfly, a cryptocurrency investment firm, predicted in its yearly outlook that Bitcoin will trade above $150,000 by year’s end. Tom Lee from Fundstrat took a different view on Jan. 20, saying he expects Bitcoin would retrace further before rallying late in the year to set a new record. Galaxy Digital decided not to make any prediction at all. The firm said 2026 would be “too chaotic” to call, suggesting Bitcoin could finish anywhere between $50,000 and $250,000. Claim your free seat in an exclusive crypto trading community - limited to 1,000 members.

3 Feb 2026, 07:30

Crypto Spot Trading Volume Plummets: Market Faces Critical Liquidity Test as Volumes Halve in Three Months

BitcoinWorld Crypto Spot Trading Volume Plummets: Market Faces Critical Liquidity Test as Volumes Halve in Three Months Global cryptocurrency markets are confronting a significant liquidity challenge as new data reveals spot trading volume has halved in just three months. This dramatic contraction, first reported by Cointelegraph in January 2025, signals a profound shift in investor behavior and market structure. The decline centers on a staggering drop in Bitcoin trading activity on major exchanges, prompting analysts to examine the underlying causes and potential paths to recovery. Consequently, the market’s resilience is now under intense scrutiny. Crypto Spot Trading Volume Enters a Sharp Downturn The most telling data point comes from Binance, the world’s largest cryptocurrency exchange. Its Bitcoin trading volume plummeted from approximately $200 billion in October to just $104 billion in January. This 48% drop in a single quarter represents one of the most severe contractions in recent years. Furthermore, this trend is not isolated to a single platform. Aggregate data from other major exchanges confirms a broad-based retreat from spot market activity. Market participants are clearly adopting a more cautious stance, preferring to hold assets or engage in derivative markets rather than active spot trading. Several interconnected factors are driving this decline. Primarily, analysts point to a large-scale forced liquidation event that occurred on October 10 of the previous year. This event triggered a cascade of sell-offs, eroding confidence and capital simultaneously. Additionally, the subsequent months have seen sustained stablecoin outflows from centralized exchanges. Stablecoins, like Tether (USDT) and USD Coin (USDC), are the primary trading pairs for most cryptocurrencies. Their removal from exchange wallets directly reduces the available liquidity for executing trades, creating a thinner and more volatile market environment. Liquidity Drain: Stablecoin Outflows and Market Cap Contraction The depletion of on-exchange liquidity is a multi-faceted problem. First, the total market capitalization of major stablecoins has decreased. This reduction means there is simply less digital dollar-equivalent capital circulating within the crypto ecosystem. Second, a significant portion of the remaining stablecoin supply is moving from exchange-controlled wallets to private, cold storage. This movement indicates that investors are pulling capital off the sidelines, not to buy other cryptocurrencies, but to park it safely away from market risk. The impact is clear: with less capital readily available on trading platforms, the market depth shrinks. Large orders now have a greater potential to move prices, increasing slippage and deterring both institutional and retail participation. This creates a negative feedback loop where lower volume leads to worse trade execution, which in turn discourages further trading. The table below illustrates the contrast in market conditions: Metric October 2024 January 2025 Change Binance BTC Spot Volume ~$200 Billion ~$104 Billion -48% Market Sentiment Neutral/Recovering Risk-Off Deteriorated On-Exchange Liquidity High Depleted Significantly Lower Expert Insight: Macroeconomic Risks and Potential Catalysts Justin d’Anethan, Head of Research at Arctic Digital, provides a crucial forward-looking perspective. He identifies macroeconomic factors as the primary risk for Bitcoin in the coming months. Specifically, a potential hawkish turn by the U.S. Federal Reserve—such as delaying rate cuts or signaling a return to tightening—could strengthen the dollar and drain liquidity from risk assets like cryptocurrency. Higher interest rates traditionally make safe, yield-bearing assets more attractive compared to volatile digital assets. However, d’Anethan also outlines several potential catalysts for a market rebound. A resumption of consistent inflows into U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs would demonstrate renewed institutional confidence and directly increase buying pressure. Furthermore, the enactment of clear, crypto-friendly legislation could reduce regulatory uncertainty, a long-standing barrier to institutional adoption. Finally, slowing U.S. employment data might encourage the Federal Reserve to adopt a more dovish policy, increasing market liquidity and benefiting speculative assets. The market now balances between these opposing forces. The Path Forward for Digital Asset Markets Historical analysis shows that periods of low spot volume often precede major market inflection points. These phases can consolidate gains from previous bull markets or build a foundation for the next cycle. The current environment tests the maturity of market infrastructure. Decentralized exchanges (DEXs) and over-the-counter (OTC) desks may see a relative increase in their share of total volume as participants seek alternative liquidity pools. Moreover, this volume drought pressures exchanges to innovate with new products and fee structures to attract traders back to their platforms. The health of the spot market is fundamental for long-term adoption. It provides the primary price discovery mechanism for assets and is essential for healthy arbitrage between derivative and spot prices. A prolonged slump could delay the development of more sophisticated financial products, such as Bitcoin-based ETFs in other jurisdictions or tokenized real-world asset platforms. Therefore, monitoring volume trends remains a top priority for analysts and investors alike. Conclusion The halving of crypto spot trading volume in three months marks a critical juncture for digital asset markets. Triggered by a major liquidation event and exacerbated by stablecoin outflows, this liquidity contraction presents immediate challenges for traders and long-term questions about market depth. While macroeconomic headwinds pose a significant risk, potential catalysts like ETF inflows and supportive legislation offer a roadmap for recovery. Ultimately, the market’s ability to navigate this period of low activity will demonstrate its evolving resilience and maturity. The coming months will be pivotal. FAQs Q1: What does ‘spot trading volume’ mean in cryptocurrency? A1: Spot trading volume refers to the total value of immediate, settled trades of cryptocurrencies on exchanges. It contrasts with futures or derivatives trading, where contracts are settled at a future date. High spot volume typically indicates strong liquidity and active price discovery. Q2: Why do stablecoin outflows affect trading volume? A2: Stablecoins are the primary ‘cash’ used to buy and sell cryptocurrencies on exchanges. When stablecoins flow out of exchange wallets, there is less readily available capital to execute trades. This reduces market depth, increases price slippage, and discourages trading activity, leading to lower overall volume. Q3: What was the ‘forced liquidation event’ on October 10? A3: While specific details vary, a forced liquidation event typically occurs when a sharp price drop triggers automatic sell orders for leveraged positions. This creates a cascade of selling as positions are closed to meet margin requirements, rapidly driving down prices and volume as liquidity is exhausted. Q4: How could Bitcoin ETF inflows help reverse the trend? A4: Consistent inflows into U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs require the fund issuers to continuously purchase Bitcoin on the open market. This creates a steady source of buy-side demand, which can improve market sentiment, increase liquidity, and encourage other investors to participate, potentially boosting overall spot trading volume. Q5: Is low trading volume always bad for the crypto market? A5: Not necessarily. While extremely low volume can indicate low interest and cause high volatility, periods of consolidation with moderate volume can allow the market to absorb previous gains, shake out weak positions, and build a stronger foundation for sustainable future growth. Context and duration are key factors. This post Crypto Spot Trading Volume Plummets: Market Faces Critical Liquidity Test as Volumes Halve in Three Months first appeared on BitcoinWorld .

3 Feb 2026, 06:31

FUD Takes Over Crypto Social Media in Retail Selloff: Santiment

“FUD has taken over social media,” following Bitcoin’s 16% fall over the past week, said blockchain analytics firm Santiment on Monday. The crash was “a result of retail selling their bags,” it stated before adding that “this is more proof that markets move in the opposite direction of the crowd’s narratives.” “Negative posts about crypto continue to flood in, with social data indicating that this is the most bearish that retail has been since the November 21st crash.” Crypto markets tanked 19% in November, with $680 billion exiting the space. Comparatively, the recent crash has been shallower, with a 14% slide and a $440 billion exodus, but it has sent markets back to April 2025 lows. A Relief Rally In Sight? “In most cases, there is a relief rally following major negative times like this,” said Santiment. “Thus far, this bounce is encouragingly looking like the previous two instances following FUD.” However, there have been few signs of recovery yet, with Bitcoin still trading at nine-month lows around $78,000 and Ether obliterated at bear market lows around $2,300. FUD has taken over social media following Bitcoin’s -16% since January 28th. After falling as low as $74.6K, $BTC has rebounded back up to $78.3K as a result of retail selling their bags. This is more proof that markets move the opposite direction of the crowd’s narratives.… pic.twitter.com/NDffU98ZWM — Santiment (@santimentfeed) February 2, 2026 CryptoQuant analyst ‘Darkfost’ blamed the record October leverage flush, saying that the event “is really the one that pushed BTC into a bear market.” “Liquidity destruction in an already uncertain crypto market environment is not conducive to a return of speculation, which is nonetheless a key component of the crypto market.” Analyst ‘Sykodelic’ was bullish, noting that the expansion in this week’s manufacturing PMI data is a positive sign for the economy. “We are not in a bear market and will not be heading down for 10 months and getting a 75% retrace. The cycle is gearing up for expansion, not at the end of it.” Bitcoin at Big Support Level “Big support level at $74K, which will be the main thing to watch in the week(s) ahead,” said analyst ‘Daan Crypto Trades.’ Sweeps would be okay, but closes below that point would “spell further trouble,” he added. “Overall, it’s easy to see how the market structure has shifted bearish also on the higher timeframe, with the bearish rejection at $98K and this latest leg down.” BTC was trading at $78,500 at the time of writing, down 11% on the week and 10% since the beginning of the year. The post FUD Takes Over Crypto Social Media in Retail Selloff: Santiment appeared first on CryptoPotato .

3 Feb 2026, 06:05

XRP Price Prediction: The Definitive 2026-2030 Outlook and the Realistic Path to $5

BitcoinWorld XRP Price Prediction: The Definitive 2026-2030 Outlook and the Realistic Path to $5 As of early 2025, the cryptocurrency market continues its evolution beyond pure speculation, with Ripple’s XRP standing at a critical juncture defined by regulatory clarity and institutional adoption. This analysis provides a neutral, evidence-based examination of XRP price predictions for 2026 through 2030, specifically evaluating the factors that could influence its journey toward the $5 threshold. Market analysts now emphasize macroeconomic conditions, Ripple’s ongoing legal landscape, and real-world utility as primary price drivers, moving beyond historical hype cycles. XRP Price Prediction: Foundational Market Context and 2024-2025 Baseline Understanding future price trajectories requires a firm grounding in present realities. Consequently, the conclusion of Ripple’s protracted legal dispute with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) in 2023 provided significant, though incomplete, regulatory clarity. This resolution removed a major overhang on the asset, allowing developers and financial institutions to engage with Ripple’s On-Demand Liquidity (ODL) product with reduced legal uncertainty. Market data from 2024 shows XRP’s price action becoming more correlated with announcements regarding central bank digital currency (CBDC) partnerships and cross-border payment volume, rather than solely with broader crypto market sentiment. Furthermore, adoption metrics offer crucial context. Ripple’s quarterly reports, which are publicly verifiable, detail an increase in ODL transactions. Several central banks, including those in Palau and Montenegro, have publicly partnered with Ripple for CBDC development. These real-world use cases establish a tangible utility floor for XRP that differs fundamentally from purely speculative assets. Analysts from firms like Messari and CoinMetrics frequently highlight this utility as a key differentiator in long-term valuation models. Expert Methodology for Long-Term Forecasting Reputable forecasting entities employ distinct methodologies. For instance, some use discounted cash flow models based on projected transaction fee burn, while others apply network value-to-settlement volume (NVT) ratios adapted for payment-focused cryptocurrencies. A third group utilizes comparative analysis against traditional cross-border settlement markets, a multi-trillion-dollar industry. It is critical to note that all long-term cryptocurrency predictions carry inherent uncertainty due to technological disruption, regulatory shifts, and black swan events. Therefore, this analysis synthesizes these methods while highlighting their underlying assumptions. Detailed Year-by-Year XRP Forecast and Analysis (2026-2030) The following table presents a consolidated view of predictions from various analytical perspectives, emphasizing the range of possibilities based on different adoption scenarios. Year Conservative Forecast Moderate Forecast Optimistic Forecast Primary Market Driver 2026 $0.95 – $1.20 $1.30 – $1.80 $2.00 – $2.50 CBDC pilot expansions & SWIFT competition 2027 $1.10 – $1.50 $1.70 – $2.40 $2.60 – $3.50 Institutional treasury adoption as a bridge asset 2028 $1.40 – $1.90 $2.20 – $3.00 $3.50 – $4.25 Mainstream bank integration for remittances 2029 $1.70 – $2.30 $2.80 – $3.80 $4.50 – $5.50 Global regulatory harmonization for crypto-assets 2030 $2.00 – $2.70 $3.50 – $4.50 $5.00 – $7.00+ Total addressable market capture in forex & settlements These ranges are not arbitrary. The conservative model typically assumes linear growth in ODL usage and increased competition. The moderate forecast incorporates accelerated adoption by regional banks and partial displacement of legacy systems. Finally, the optimistic scenario, which includes the potential for XRP to reach $5, predicates on Ripple capturing a low-single-digit percentage of the global cross-border settlement market, a thesis frequently cited in reports by ARK Invest and other institutional research firms. The Path to $5: Critical Factors and Necessary Conditions Reaching a $5 valuation for XRP, which would imply a market capitalization significantly higher than current levels, is not an event but a process dependent on several concurrent factors. First, transaction volume on the RippleNet and related Ledger must see exponential growth, moving from billions to trillions of dollars annually. This volume would validate the asset’s utility and drive demand for the token beyond speculative holding. Second, the regulatory environment for digital assets, particularly in major economies like the United States and the European Union, must evolve to provide clear operational guidelines for financial institutions using XRP. Third, technological execution remains paramount. The XRP Ledger must continue to demonstrate its advantages in speed (settling in 3-5 seconds) and cost (fractions of a cent per transaction) at scale without security compromises. Fourth, macroeconomic conditions play a role. A weaker U.S. dollar or a period of high inflation in key corridors could increase the attractiveness of faster, cheaper settlement alternatives. Finally, network effects are crucial. Each new bank or payment provider using ODL increases the utility and liquidity for all existing participants, creating a potential virtuous cycle. Evidence from Current Traction and Institutional Commentary Evidence for this path exists in current developments. For example, Ripple’s 2024 New Value Report highlighted a 40% year-over-year increase in its global payment network traffic. Furthermore, commentary from banking giants like Santander and SBI Remit references ongoing tests and limited production use of blockchain-based settlements. While not guarantees, these data points provide a foundation for the forecasts discussed. Analysts from Gartner have similarly noted that blockchain-based settlement could reduce related costs by up to 60%, a powerful incentive for adoption in a margin-sensitive industry. Potential Risks and Challenges to the Forecast Any balanced analysis must also address material risks. The competitive landscape is intense. Other blockchain projects, like Stellar, and established players, like SWIFT with its new platform, are pursuing the same market. Central banks may develop their own interconnected CBDC networks, potentially bypassing commercial solutions like RippleNet. Additionally, technological risks persist, including the potential for novel attack vectors or the emergence of a superior technology. Regulatory risk, while diminished, has not vanished; new rules in one jurisdiction could complicate global operations. Market risks are equally significant. Cryptocurrency markets remain volatile and susceptible to liquidity crises. A prolonged bear market could stifle investment and slow adoption regardless of Ripple’s operational success. Moreover, execution risk lies with Ripple Labs itself. The company must continue to innovate, secure partnerships, and manage its substantial XRP holdings in a way the market perceives as responsible. Failure on any of these fronts could negatively impact price irrespective of the broader thesis. Conclusion In conclusion, XRP price predictions for 2026 through 2030 hinge overwhelmingly on real-world adoption and utility, not mere speculation. The possibility of XRP reaching $5 by the end of the decade resides firmly within the optimistic forecast scenario, contingent upon Ripple capturing a meaningful share of the global settlement market and navigating an evolving regulatory landscape. While the conservative and moderate forecasts present more gradual growth, they are still predicated on the continued expansion of a verifiable use case. Ultimately, investors and observers should focus on tangible metrics—ODL volume, new partnership announcements, and regulatory developments—rather than short-term price fluctuations, to gauge the long-term validity of any XRP price prediction. FAQs Q1: What is the most important factor for XRP’s price to increase? The single most important factor is increased transactional utility, specifically the volume of value settled using XRP through Ripple’s On-Demand Liquidity product. Price follows sustained, verifiable usage. Q2: How does the SEC lawsuit resolution affect the long-term price prediction? The resolution removed a major barrier to institutional adoption in the United States, allowing banks and payment providers to engage with the technology with clearer guidelines. This provides a more stable foundation for growth but does not guarantee it. Q3: Can XRP reach $5 before 2030? According to synthesized analyst forecasts, reaching $5 before 2030 is possible but falls into the optimistic scenario. It would require an accelerated adoption curve and favorable macroeconomic conditions. Q4: What are the biggest risks to these price predictions? The primary risks are competitive disruption from other technologies or consortia, adverse global regulatory shifts, a failure to scale the technology securely, and broader cryptocurrency market downturns that delay institutional investment. Q5: How do experts differentiate XRP predictions from other cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin or Ethereum? Experts typically analyze XRP as a bridge asset and utility token for payments, tying its value to settlement volume and fee burn models. This contrasts with Bitcoin’s store-of-value narrative or Ethereum’s smart contract and dApp platform valuation, leading to different fundamental drivers. This post XRP Price Prediction: The Definitive 2026-2030 Outlook and the Realistic Path to $5 first appeared on BitcoinWorld .

3 Feb 2026, 05:51

The Department of Justice is looking into the high renovation costs

President Donald Trump announced that the U.S. Department of Justice will continue its criminal investigation into Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell over the $2.5 billion renovation of the Federal Reserve’s headquarters, a dispute that has become one of the most contentious confrontations between the White House and the nation’s central bank. Speaking to reporters in the Oval Office, Trump said the investigation led by U.S. Attorney Jeanine Pirro in Washington, D.C., “will be taken to the end” and dismissed calls from some Republican lawmakers to drop the case. He reiterated harsh criticism of the renovation project, calling the cost “either gross incompetence or… theft of some kind or kickbacks.” The Department of Justice is looking into the high renovation costs According to recent news, the DOJ is looking into the information top officials at the Federal Reserve provided about the ongoing renovations, which seem to have cost an arm and a leg so far. The agency wants to find out whether what was shared with Congress matches what was actually available. The Fed launched a multi-year project to improve two main buildings in D.C., including the historic Marriner S. Eccles Building. The project focuses on upgrading the structure and safety and modernizing old infrastructure, such as electrical, plumbing, and waterproofing systems. It is an ongoing project while the buildings are still open, and it’s a pretty complex job given their historic status. The estimated renovation cost for the building is approximately $2.5 billion. The renovation cost was increased due to changes in the construction conditions. According to the Federal Reserve, the cost of renovations rose significantly because they needed more materials and labor. They also blamed the sudden inflation and unexpected changes that came up during construction.to the increase in material and labor costs, inflation, and changes encountered during the construction. The renovation of the old building involved more work than was initially evident during the early stages. Powell stated that the project is important because it will help address issues such as maintenance and safety. The buildings have deteriorated over the years due to extensive use. The renovation project aims at making the necessary repairs, not renovations, and ensuring that the facilities are safe, usable, and affordable. The investigations have left leadership at the Federal Reserve unclear Renovations at the Federal Reserve are ongoing, and significant changes in the central bank have raised concerns as key leadership decisions approach. In January, Jerome Powell confirmed he is under criminal investigation. He said, “It’s rare for a Fed chair to be under investigation. It’s put a spotlight on my job and the Fed. The Fed uses its own money for the renovation, not taxpayers’ money. The Fed said the cost of maintaining the building and construction comes out of the Fed’s own income.” The investigation has triggered uncommon backlash across Washington, including within the Republican Party. Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.) has vowed to block confirmation of Trump’s nominee for Fed chair, Kevin Warsh, until the probe is resolved. Tillis warned that continuing the investigation “risks undermining the independence of the central bank.” The timing of these investigations is important because Powell’s term as chair ends in May. Currently, the Justice Department has made no announcement regarding the charges. The department has also made no announcement regarding the timeline for the investigation’s conclusion. The issue remains pending until a decision is made, and Trump is not backing down. Sharpen your strategy with mentorship + daily ideas - 30 days free access to our trading program