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29 Jan 2026, 18:00

43% of Wall Street specialists say prediction markets can add value, but only if liquidity improves

A flash survey released this month shows 43% of Wall Street market structure specialists say prediction markets can add value to institutional trading. The same survey also shows deep concern about trading depth and liquidity. The work was produced by Crisil Coalition Greenwich and focuses on how these markets may fit into professional trading over the next two years. The survey covered 53 U.S.-based specialists across the buy side, sell side, exchanges, market data, fintech, and brokerage firms. Only 2% said they had no view. Prediction markets move from campus experiment to market infrastructure Prediction markets began as an academic idea. In 1988, the University of Iowa launched the Iowa Electronic Markets as a teaching and research project. Participants traded contracts linked to political elections and other real events. Crisil Coalition Greenwich notes that these markets gained attention after repeatedly producing election forecasts that matched outcomes more closely than polls. That early experiment has now turned into a live industry. Platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket drove the recent surge in interest. Their contracts cover Federal Reserve decisions, CPI data, employment reports, gas prices, GDP growth, and rare geopolitical outcomes like territorial purchases in the North Atlantic. Trading runs 24 hours a day. Major exchanges are no longer watching from the sidelines. CME, Cboe, and Intercontinental Exchange have all moved toward this space. ICE has already invested in Polymarket. Large brokerages such as Interactive Brokers and Robinhood are also pushing access. Crisil Coalition Greenwich states that exchange groups see these contracts not just as tradeable instruments but also as potential new data products. The logic is straightforward. These markets pool thousands of individual views into one price. Crisil Coalition Greenwich describes this as using crowd behavior to extract forward-looking signals. That logic explains why institutional adoption is increasingly framed as a matter of timing rather than credibility. Wall Street splits on value as liquidity dominates the debate About 43% of the survey’s respondents said they like prediction markets, and 36% took a neutral stance, allegedly mostly because they believe the market is too young to judge. Their hesitation centers on contract depth, volume stability, and consistency across events. 19% held a negative view. They see these markets as encouraging gambling behavior and adding risk without improving decision-making. Liquidity appeared as the most common concern throughout the study. Crisil Coalition Greenwich states that many political and economic contracts remain thinly traded. Low participation leads to wide spreads and weak price discovery. The report also notes that liquidity growth is circular. Volume attracts volume, but early stages are difficult. Despite liquidity concerns, nearly three-quarters of respondents expect prediction markets to introduce new ways to speculate on financial events within 12 months. Crisil Coalition Greenwich reports that professionals see direct exposure to political and economic outcomes as a potential alternative to indirect positioning through rates or equity indices. The survey shows 60% expect these markets to become a new source of market data for speculative trading. 43% see value as alternative data for hedging strategies. 36% expect new hedging approaches that move away from traditional derivatives. Only 15% of respondents expect little or no impact on institutional trading in the near term. Looking out two years, views on data value remain cautious but constructive. 56% believe data from prediction markets will be somewhat valuable as a supplement to existing feeds. 17% consider the data very valuable and capable of delivering insights that are difficult to source elsewhere. Meanwhile, 19% believe prediction market’s overall data will stay niche, 4% see no value at all, and another 4% had no opinion. Don’t just read crypto news. Understand it. Subscribe to our newsletter. It's free .

29 Jan 2026, 17:46

Bitcoin Takes an Unexpected Plunge Amidst US Market Openings

Bitcoin's price plunged below $84,300 during US market openings. Trump spoke about oil and tariffs, projecting positive outcomes. Continue Reading: Bitcoin Takes an Unexpected Plunge Amidst US Market Openings The post Bitcoin Takes an Unexpected Plunge Amidst US Market Openings appeared first on COINTURK NEWS .

29 Jan 2026, 17:30

US trade deficit jumped 94.6% in November to $56.8 billion

The US trade deficit jumped 94.6% in November to $56.8 billion, nearly doubling from the previous month and marking the biggest monthly spike since 1992, according to the Commerce Department. The shortfall blew past every economist’s estimate in Bloomberg’s survey. This sudden surge ended a streak of improvement, where October had shown the smallest deficit since 2009. Behind the spike was a 5% increase in imports, paired with a 3.6% drop in exports. The import surge was led by a rise in shipments of pharmaceuticals, computers, and semiconductors, while the export decline came from a sharp fall in outbound non-monetary gold. These swings came as markets reacted to the Trump administration’s on-again, off-again stance on tariffs. For the second time in recent months, global traders rushed to ship or delay goods based on White House policy noise. Pharma imports and falling gold exports hit trade balance Inbound pharmaceutical shipments soared, while gold exports slid hard. That combination alone dealt a heavy blow to the trade balance. Add in capital goods like chips and machines, and the weight of rising imports was clear. These figures aren’t adjusted for inflation, which means the real volume might be even higher. Meanwhile, total exports slumped by 3.6% across both goods and services. That included falling foreign demand for certain American-made products, and fewer international purchases of gold, which has seen strange swings due to the tariff war. The trade deficit , though worse in November, is still smaller compared to some recent years. Cutting that gap remains one of Donald Trump’s key economic goals, but the latest data show that’s not exactly on track. Economists at Wells Fargo, Shannon Grein and Tim Quinlan, said the manufacturing shift Trump hoped for hasn’t taken off. “There has been little indication yet of a large onshoring of manufacturing operations in the wake of tariffs,” they wrote. “Import growth will likely recover somewhat this year as businesses rebuild some inventory to meet demand.” Deficits with China and Canada grow while Mexico gap shrinks The country’s deficit with China and Canada got worse in November, while the shortfall with Mexico narrowed just a bit. On an inflation-adjusted basis, which affects GDP calculations, the merchandise deficit widened to $87.1 billion, the highest in four months. That measure leaves out most gold trades, unless the metal is used for industrial stuff like jewelry. Economists will use these figures to refine fourth-quarter GDP forecasts. Before the release, the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model predicted net exports would add 1.88 percentage points to Q4 growth. That’s now up for review. Also, jobless claims data came in flat for the week, with continuing claims falling to their lowest level since September 2024. Oil prices climbed more than 2% on the same day as the report, as President Donald Trump weighed military action against Iran, an OPEC member. That added more volatility to markets already reacting to trade data. World Bank, IMF say U.S. economy shows unexpected strength Despite the latest deficit numbers, global experts still see surprising momentum in the U.S. economy. Ayhan Kose, deputy chief economist at the World Bank, said the U.S. is growing faster than many expected after several global shocks. “We need to increasingly think whether the economy’s potential growth has been increasing,” Kose said. The World Bank estimates the U.S. grew 2.1% in 2025, bringing the average growth since 2022 to 2.6%. That’s higher than the 2.2% average from 2010 to 2020. It excludes 2021, when the economy shot up 6.2% after the Covid lockdowns. The current potential growth rate, a rough estimate of how fast the economy can run without heating up inflation, sits at 1.8%, per the Congressional Budget Office. Kose said that may be outdated. With strong investment, rising productivity, and ongoing fiscal support, he suggested the real number might be 2.2% or even 2.4%. The World Bank sees a small pickup in 2026, forecasting 2.2% growth, while BNP Paribas expects 2.9%. “There is a lot of momentum in the U.S. economy,” said Isabelle Mateos y Lago, chief economist at BNP. She warned the productivity jump in 2025 might be short-lived due to slow hiring. But if it lasts, it could be a sign of global trends. The IMF added that new tech, including AI, could lift global growth by 0.1 to 0.8 points per year in the medium term. “It would lift global growth above prepandemic levels if it happens,” said Kristalina Georgieva, head of the IMF. The idea is simple: if the U.S. keeps expanding, it pulls other economies along. More demand from America means more exports for everyone else. That boost, even with high tariffs, would ripple across the world. “That has huge implications for the global economy,” Kose said. “You basically have this largest economy doing very well despite the fact that it has been buffeted by a number of shocks. That also helps the global economy.” Don’t just read crypto news. Understand it. Subscribe to our newsletter. It's free .

29 Jan 2026, 16:00

Spot Gold Price Plummets 5.45% to $5,200, Sparking Market Turbulence

BitcoinWorld Spot Gold Price Plummets 5.45% to $5,200, Sparking Market Turbulence Global financial markets witnessed a sharp correction on Thursday, March 13, 2025, as the spot gold price tumbled a significant 5.45% to trade at the $5,200 per ounce level, according to data verified by Cointelegraph and major financial terminals. This sudden and substantial decline represents one of the most pronounced single-day drops for the precious metal in recent years, immediately raising questions about the stability of traditional safe-haven assets and shifting macroeconomic currents. Spot Gold Price Plunge: Analyzing the Immediate Data The reported 5.45% decline in the spot gold price translates to a loss of approximately $300 per ounce from recent highs. Market data shows trading volume spiked dramatically during the sell-off, indicating broad-based participation rather than isolated transactions. Consequently, this move breached several key technical support levels that analysts had been monitoring. The $5,200 level now serves as a critical focal point for traders. Furthermore, the futures market for gold mirrored this spot price action, with contracts for April and June delivery experiencing similar steep declines. This synchronized drop across different trading venues confirms the move’s legitimacy and depth. Contextualizing the Gold Market Correction To understand this event, one must examine the broader commodity trading landscape. Gold had experienced a sustained bull run throughout late 2024 and early 2025, driven by geopolitical uncertainty and persistent inflation concerns. However, several converging factors likely precipitated this correction. Firstly, a surprisingly strong U.S. jobs report and retail sales data released this week bolstered the U.S. dollar. A stronger dollar typically pressures dollar-denominated commodities like gold, making them more expensive for holders of other currencies. Secondly, rising bond yields offered investors an alternative, income-generating safe-haven asset, diverting capital away from non-yielding gold. Expert Perspectives on Precious Metals Volatility Financial historians often draw parallels to past gold market corrections for insight. For instance, a similar sharp decline occurred in 2013 following signals of quantitative easing tapering. Market analysts cite algorithmic trading as a potential amplifier of this week’s move. High-frequency trading systems, programmed to sell upon breaching certain thresholds, can create cascading effects. Veteran commodity strategists emphasize that while dramatic, such pullbacks are not uncommon in long-term bull markets. They often represent healthy consolidations that shake out speculative positions before the underlying trend potentially resumes, depending on fundamental drivers. The Ripple Effects Across Financial Markets The impact of the spot gold price drop extends far beyond the precious metals sector. Mining stocks, represented by indices like the NYSE Arca Gold BUGS Index, fell precipitously, often declining more than the metal itself due to operational leverage. Conversely, the technology and equity sectors saw a relative influx of capital as investors rotated out of defensive assets. Central bank watchers are now keenly observing whether this volatility affects the gold-buying programs of institutions like the People’s Bank of China, which has been a consistent buyer. The table below summarizes key comparative data for related assets on the day of the drop. Asset Performance Key Driver Spot Gold (XAU/USD) -5.45% Strong USD, Rising Yields Gold Mining ETFs (GDX) -8.2% Leverage to Gold Price U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) +1.8% Robust Economic Data 10-Year Treasury Yield +25 bps Inflation Expectations Bitcoin (BTC) -3.1% Broader Risk-Off Sentiment Additionally, other precious metals like silver and platinum also sold off, though not always to the same degree, demonstrating gold’s role as the benchmark. Retail investors holding physical gold bars or coins are now assessing the paper loss on their holdings, while jewelry markets may see a delayed reaction as the raw material cost adjusts. Fundamental Drivers and Future Trajectory The fundamental question is whether this is a short-term technical correction or the start of a deeper bear market for gold. Analysis hinges on several verifiable facts and economic indicators. Inflation data remains above central bank targets in many major economies, which historically supports gold. However, the market’s reaction suggests a growing belief that central banks might succeed in controlling inflation without triggering a recession, reducing gold’s appeal as a hedge. Geopolitical tensions, while present, have not escalated recently, removing a near-term catalyst for safe-haven demand. The physical market response, including demand from key consuming nations like India and China in the coming weeks, will provide crucial evidence for the price direction. Interest Rate Expectations: The market has pushed forward its timeline for anticipated rate cuts, diminishing gold’s relative attractiveness. Real Yields: The rise in inflation-adjusted Treasury yields directly increases the opportunity cost of holding gold. Market Sentiment: Extreme bullish positioning in gold futures prior to the drop created a vulnerable market ripe for a correction. Technical Breakdown: The breach of the 100-day moving average triggered automated selling programs. Moving forward, traders will monitor the Commitment of Traders reports to see if large speculators are unwinding long positions or viewing this as a buying opportunity. The $5,000 psychological level is now seen as the next major support, while a recovery above $5,400 would be needed to restore bullish confidence. Conclusion The 5.45% collapse in the spot gold price to $5,200 serves as a stark reminder of the volatility inherent in even the most established safe-haven assets. This event was not an anomaly but rather the result of clear, identifiable pressures from a strengthening dollar, shifting interest rate expectations, and technical market dynamics. While the long-term narrative for gold, supported by macroeconomic uncertainty and central bank demand, remains intact, this correction has forcefully reset market expectations and leverage. Investors and analysts alike will now watch to see if this marks a healthy consolidation within a longer-term uptrend or a more significant reversal, with the $5,200 level acting as the immediate battleground for the future direction of the spot gold price. FAQs Q1: What does “spot gold price” mean? The spot gold price refers to the current market price for immediate delivery and settlement of physical gold. It is the benchmark price for one ounce of gold traded on global over-the-counter markets. Q2: Why does a strong U.S. dollar cause gold prices to fall? Gold is priced in U.S. dollars globally. When the dollar strengthens, it takes fewer dollars to buy an ounce of gold, making it more expensive for buyers using other currencies, which typically reduces demand and puts downward pressure on the dollar-denominated price. Q3: Is a 5.45% drop considered a crash for gold? While severe, a 5.45% single-day move is historically a significant correction rather than a full-blown crash. Gold crashes are typically multi-day events with cumulative losses exceeding 20%. However, this is one of the largest single-session declines in the past decade. Q4: How does this drop affect my gold jewelry or coins? The intrinsic market value of your physical gold holdings is directly tied to the spot price. A 5.45% drop means the raw bullion value of your items has decreased by a similar percentage. Retail buy/sell spreads and craftsmanship value may moderate the exact impact. Q5: Should investors buy gold after this drop? Investment decisions depend on individual financial goals and risk tolerance. Some investors view such corrections as potential buying opportunities in a long-term strategy, while others see it as a warning sign. Consulting a qualified financial advisor for personalized advice based on your portfolio is essential. This post Spot Gold Price Plummets 5.45% to $5,200, Sparking Market Turbulence first appeared on BitcoinWorld .

29 Jan 2026, 15:33

Metaplanet Lines up $137M to Continue Bitcoin Acquisitions

Tokyo-listed Metaplanet has wrapped up a new equity and warrant issuance that may bring in as much as $137 million, capital it plans to deploy primarily toward expanding its bitcoin treasury. Japanese Bitcoin Treasury Firm Metaplanet Completes Share Issuance to Fund Bitcoin Strategy The financing involves a third-party allotment of new shares alongside the company’s

29 Jan 2026, 15:32

Canadian Billionaires Says Central Banks Have No Interest in Bitcoin

Mining magnate and Lionsgate founder Frank Giustra has issued a stark warning to Bitcoin (BTC) proponents central bank adoption..