hodler

20 Feb 2026, 10:31

Gold at $5K & Silver Rallying: Is Bitcoin ($67K) Set to Follow the Safe-Haven Surge?

As huge uncertainty builds on the world stage with the US/Iran face-off, investors are once more turning to gold and silver to park their wealth. Both of these assets are signalling potential breakouts. Down in the depths of a bear market, could Bitcoin be about to follow? Gold breakout heads for $5,100 Source: TradingView Back above $5,000 again, the gold price has seen a small trend break and is heading back to the $5,100 horizontal resistance level. If the bulls get a head of steam behind them, a 2% daily gain would be the required amount to push the price through this last important resistance level. Given recent price history, 2% is certainly a very doable rise. From there, an ascent back to the $5,600 all-time high is a real possibility. Silver up 3% but stalls at $80,000 resistance Source: TradingView Silver is breaking out in fine fashion on Friday morning. A triangle pattern has broken to the upside and silver is up more than 3% on the day so far. There is horizontal resistance at the current price level, so in order for this rally to continue the bulls will have to provide another good shove to force the price up and through. If Silver can then confirm this level as support, only one more decent resistance remains at $92 to $93 before the silver bulls get the chance to take the price back to the $121 top. If the price gets there, beware of a double top. Bitcoin up, but major resistance awaits Source: TradingView The $BTC price is having its own decent little period of upside. 1.7% up on the day so far, the price is not far from the bottom of the bear pennant pattern it recently fell out of. However, the immediate issue with Bitcoin, and the reason it might struggle compared to gold and silver, is that the price could just be coming back to confirm the breakdown from the pennant. What’s more, just above this area is the major horizontal resistance at $69,000 . It will take a gargantuan effort from the bulls to push the price back above and confirm this level as support once more. That said, options expiry today has max pain at $70,000… Weekly close above $69,000 could be turning point Source: TradingView The weekly chart shows just how important it would be for the bulls to close this candle above that $69,000 horizontal level and keep it as support, which it still is in this higher time frame. We already have the huge wick down to $60,000 which was bought up very strongly. We then had the following weekly candle very slightly slipping below , but with a decent wick down to $65,000, and now for this current week there is the possibility of another similar candle and wick. This does rather look like the major support could be holding. Of course, if the weekend turns red for the $BTC price , that support would be in grave danger once again. However, if one also takes into account that the Stochastic RSI indicators in this time frame are nicely positioned, ready to swing back up, and that these indicators are at the bottom for the 2-week and the monthly time frames, it tells a story that a bottom is very likely forming. Disclaimer: This article is provided for informational purposes only. It is not offered or intended to be used as legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice.

20 Feb 2026, 10:25

Bitcoin Price Correlation Reveals Startling Connection to US Treasury Bill Issuance Cycles

BitcoinWorld Bitcoin Price Correlation Reveals Startling Connection to US Treasury Bill Issuance Cycles New York, March 2025 – A groundbreaking analysis reveals Bitcoin’s price movements maintain a startling 0.8 correlation coefficient with short-term U.S. Treasury bill issuance, fundamentally challenging traditional narratives about cryptocurrency market drivers. This Bitcoin price correlation discovery suggests Treasury instruments may influence digital asset valuations more significantly than Federal Reserve policies or monetary supply metrics, according to recent market research. Bitcoin Price Correlation with Treasury Instruments Financial analysts now identify a compelling relationship between Bitcoin valuation and U.S. government debt instruments. Specifically, the correlation manifests through an eight-month lag period where T-bill issuance changes precede corresponding Bitcoin price adjustments. Consequently, market participants must reconsider their analytical frameworks. Moreover, this relationship demonstrates remarkable consistency across multiple economic cycles. Nic Puckrin, founder of Coin Bureau, recently explained this phenomenon on social media platform X. He presented data showing Treasury bill issuance growth peaked in late 2024 before slowing through early 2026. Subsequently, Bitcoin experienced corresponding weakness during this adjustment period. This pattern suggests institutional capital flows between traditional and digital asset markets create measurable impacts. The Eight-Month Lag Mechanism The temporal relationship between Treasury activity and cryptocurrency markets reveals sophisticated capital migration patterns. Initially, government debt issuance absorbs liquidity from financial systems. Then, approximately eight months later, reduced capital availability affects risk asset valuations including Bitcoin. Therefore, analysts can potentially forecast cryptocurrency trends by monitoring Treasury Department activities. Historical data supports this correlation hypothesis. For instance, during 2023’s debt ceiling resolution period, Treasury flooded markets with short-term bills. Subsequently, Bitcoin experienced downward pressure eight months later despite favorable monetary conditions. This counterintuitive relationship challenges conventional cryptocurrency analysis methodologies. Comparative Analysis with Traditional Indicators Researchers conducted extensive comparisons between various economic indicators and Bitcoin performance. Surprisingly, Treasury bill metrics demonstrated stronger statistical relationships than Federal Reserve policies or M2 money supply measurements. Specifically, the 0.8 correlation coefficient significantly exceeds relationships with other macroeconomic variables. Bitcoin Correlation Coefficients with Economic Indicators Indicator Correlation Coefficient Lag Period US T-bill Issuance 0.8 8 months Federal Funds Rate 0.4 3 months M2 Money Supply 0.3 6 months S&P 500 Index 0.6 1 month This comparative analysis reveals several important insights. First, Treasury operations influence cryptocurrency markets more directly than monetary policy changes. Second, the extended lag period suggests complex intermediary mechanisms. Third, traditional stock market correlations remain weaker than Treasury relationships despite shorter lag times. Institutional Capital Flow Dynamics Market experts propose specific mechanisms explaining this correlation pattern. Primarily, institutional investors reallocate portfolios between Treasury securities and alternative assets like Bitcoin. When Treasury offers attractive short-term yields, capital migrates from risk assets to government debt. Conversely, reduced issuance creates capital seeking higher returns elsewhere. The $3-4 trillion annual refinancing requirement through 2029 establishes persistent market influence. This substantial volume ensures Treasury operations will continue affecting global liquidity conditions. Consequently, Bitcoin investors must monitor debt management strategies alongside conventional cryptocurrency metrics. Historical Context and Market Evolution Bitcoin’s relationship with traditional finance has evolved significantly since its inception. Initially, cryptocurrency markets operated largely independently from conventional financial systems. However, increasing institutional participation created stronger intermarket connections. Today, sophisticated investors treat Bitcoin as part of broader portfolio allocation strategies. The growing correlation with Treasury instruments reflects this maturation process. As regulatory frameworks develop and institutional infrastructure expands, cryptocurrency markets integrate more deeply with traditional finance. This integration creates both opportunities and vulnerabilities for digital asset investors. Several key developments facilitated this correlation emergence: Institutional Adoption: Major financial institutions now offer Bitcoin investment products Regulatory Clarity: Improved regulatory frameworks enable traditional investors to participate Market Infrastructure: Sophisticated trading and custody solutions reduce barriers to entry Macroeconomic Conditions: Recent economic volatility highlighted Bitcoin’s alternative asset characteristics Expert Perspectives on Market Implications Financial analysts offer diverse interpretations of this correlation discovery. Some experts view the relationship as evidence of Bitcoin’s maturation as an institutional asset class. Others caution that strong correlations with traditional instruments may reduce Bitcoin’s diversification benefits. However, most agree this discovery requires revised analytical approaches. Market participants should consider several implications. First, Treasury issuance forecasts may provide valuable Bitcoin price indicators. Second, cryptocurrency volatility could decrease as institutional participation grows. Third, regulatory developments affecting Treasury markets may indirectly influence digital assets. Therefore, comprehensive market analysis must incorporate multiple financial sectors. Future Projections and Market Outlook The Treasury Department’s refinancing requirements create predictable market influences through 2029. Analysts project annual issuance between $3-4 trillion during this period. This substantial volume ensures continued correlation with cryptocurrency valuations. However, relationship strength may fluctuate based on monetary policy adjustments and regulatory changes. Several factors could modify this correlation pattern moving forward. Central bank digital currency developments might alter capital flow dynamics. Similarly, cryptocurrency-specific regulations could decouple digital assets from traditional markets. Nevertheless, current evidence suggests strong intermarket relationships will persist throughout 2025. Investors should monitor several key indicators: Weekly Treasury bill auction results and demand metrics Federal Reserve balance sheet adjustments Institutional Bitcoin fund flow data Global liquidity conditions and dollar strength Conclusion The Bitcoin price correlation with U.S. Treasury bill issuance represents a significant discovery for financial markets. This relationship demonstrates cryptocurrency’s growing integration with traditional finance while providing valuable predictive insights. As Treasury operations continue influencing global liquidity through substantial refinancing requirements, Bitcoin valuations will likely maintain measurable connections to government debt markets. Consequently, investors must expand their analytical frameworks beyond conventional cryptocurrency metrics to include Treasury activities and broader macroeconomic indicators. FAQs Q1: What exactly does the 0.8 correlation coefficient mean for Bitcoin and Treasury bills? The 0.8 coefficient indicates a very strong statistical relationship where changes in T-bill issuance explain approximately 64% of Bitcoin’s price variation eight months later, suggesting Treasury operations significantly influence cryptocurrency valuations through institutional capital allocation patterns. Q2: How does this correlation compare to Bitcoin’s relationship with stock markets? Bitcoin shows stronger correlation with Treasury bills (0.8) than with the S&P 500 (0.6), though stock market relationships manifest with shorter lag periods. This suggests different mechanisms connect Bitcoin to equity versus debt markets. Q3: Can retail investors use this correlation for trading decisions? While institutional investors may incorporate Treasury data into sophisticated models, retail investors should consider multiple factors. The eight-month lag and complex intervening variables make simple trading strategies based solely on this correlation potentially unreliable without comprehensive analysis. Q4: Does this correlation mean Bitcoin is losing its independence from traditional finance? The correlation indicates growing integration rather than complete dependence. Bitcoin maintains unique characteristics including fixed supply and decentralized governance, but institutional participation has created stronger connections with conventional financial markets and instruments. Q5: How might Federal Reserve policy changes affect this correlation pattern? Monetary policy adjustments could modify the relationship’s strength or timing. Interest rate changes particularly influence Treasury bill demand and yields, potentially altering capital flow patterns between government debt and alternative assets like Bitcoin. This post Bitcoin Price Correlation Reveals Startling Connection to US Treasury Bill Issuance Cycles first appeared on BitcoinWorld .

20 Feb 2026, 10:00

SEC Chair Discloses What’s Next For Crypto Regulation At ETH Denver

As momentum in Washington around the proposed CLARITY Act slows, US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) Chair Paul Atkins outlined how the agency intends to proceed with crypto regulation, despite congressional delays, at a public appearance this Wednesday at ETH Denver. Speaking alongside Commissioner Hester Peirce, a longtime advocate for clearer crypto rules, Atkins signaled that the regulator is preparing a broad regulatory push in the months ahead. SEC Details 2026 Crypto Agenda Responding to a question about what the industry can expect this year, Atkins said the SEC will continue coordinating with lawmakers while advancing its own agenda through “Project Crypto,” an initiative that is now being jointly carried out with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). Atkins said the Commission and staff are preparing several initiatives for consideration in the near term. Among them is a formal framework explaining how the SEC determines when a crypto asset involves an investment contract, including how such a contract is created and under what circumstances it may cease to exist. He also previewed an “innovation exemption” designed to allow limited trading of certain tokenized securities on new types of platforms, with the broader goal of shaping a durable regulatory structure over time. The agency is also developing a rule proposal intended to create what Atkins called “common-sense” avenues for raising capital through crypto asset sales. In addition, the SEC plans to issue no-action letters and exemptive orders to provide greater certainty to market participants, including guidance for digital wallets and other user interfaces that may not fall under registration requirements of the Securities Exchange Act. Custody rules are another priority. Atkins said the SEC is working on rulemaking related to how broker-dealers may safeguard non-security crypto assets, including payment stablecoins. The Commission is also preparing updates to transfer agent regulations to reflect the growing role blockchain technology can play in maintaining ownership records. Clear Rules Over Panic The SEC chair also addressed recent declines in crypto prices, pushing back against the idea that regulators should respond to market downturns . He emphasized that it is not the role of the Commission to react to daily price movements. Instead, he said, the agency’s responsibility is to ensure investors receive adequate disclosures so they can make informed decisions. Markets, he noted, fluctuate across asset classes, whether stocks, commodities, or digital assets. Regulators, in his view, should focus on maintaining clear and functional rules that allow investors to decide for themselves whether to buy, sell, or hold. Lastly, Atkins reiterated that the Commission must continue clarifying how tokenized securities fit within the existing regulatory framework and how intermediaries can trade and custody them for clients. He stressed that progress will require collaboration and welcomed input from across the spectrum, including critics of the crypto industry. Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com

20 Feb 2026, 09:53

Ripple CEO Predicts 90% Chance U.S. Crypto Bill Passes by April – What It Means for XRP Price

Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse says there is a 90% chance the US CLARITY Act passes by the end of April. If that happens, years of crypto regulatory gray zone could finally close. Garlinghouse pointed to serious momentum building in Washington after months of Senate delays. Lawmakers are pushing toward a March 1 negotiation deadline set by the White House. If the bill clears, it would give institutions the clear legal definitions they have been waiting for before possibly entering spot markets in size. Key Takeaways The Signal: Garlinghouse raises passage probability to 90% by April, exceeding prediction market estimates. The Timeline: White House targeting March 1 for final deal on stablecoin provisions. The Impact: Defines clear lanes for CFTC and SEC oversight, removing headwinds for utility tokens. Why Is The Clarity Act Happening Now? The Digital Asset Market Clarity Act, H.R. 3633, is at a turning point. The House already passed it in July 2025 with a strong 294 to 134 bipartisan vote. But the Senate hit the brakes over jurisdiction fights. That is where things got stuck. Great to be back on with @MariaBartiromo discussing Ripple’s banner year and accelerating momentum as we start 2026. Already, we are actively seeing Boards and CEOs pushing their CFOs and treasurers to understand how they can leverage and benefit from stablecoins. For… — Brad Garlinghouse (@bgarlinghouse) February 19, 2026 Now momentum looks different. Garlinghouse says fresh meetings with banking leaders and crypto execs helped clear the logjam. Regulators seem ready too. After the Senate Agriculture Committee moved a related draft on January 29, SEC Chairman Paul Atkins said the SEC and CFTC are coordinating through “Project Crypto.” The industry cannot run on enforcement alone anymore. It wants rules. Breaking Down the US Clarity Act Odds Garlinghouse’s 90% odds are even more bullish than the market . Prediction markets are pricing the bill at around 78% by year end, which makes an April finish feel ambitious. Still, he framed it as a necessary move. The main sticking point is stablecoins. Lawmakers are debating whether platforms can offer yield style incentives. That issue already slowed Senate Banking discussions earlier this year. While Washington debates, Ripple is not waiting. Since 2023, it has deployed $3B into acquisitions to strengthen custody and treasury infrastructure. What Does This Mean for XRP Price? For XRP traders, real legislation is the last box to check. Ripple already won a court ruling that XRP is not a security. But a federal law would lock that status in. That kind of clarity could open the door for institutions at scale. Xrp (XRP) 24h 7d 30d 1y All time Garlinghouse said corporate treasurers are looking at stablecoins and cross border payments. The interest is there. What they need is federal guardrails before moving serious capital. If April delivers, we could see a fast rotation back into large caps with real utility, especially if it lines up with the current market pullback. Discover: Here are the crypto likely to explode! The post Ripple CEO Predicts 90% Chance U.S. Crypto Bill Passes by April – What It Means for XRP Price appeared first on Cryptonews .

20 Feb 2026, 09:30

Ripple Advocate Trashes Banks As They Strive to Ban Stablecoin Yields Through Legislation

John Deaton takes a jab at banks as they oppose the crypto industry in the current CLARITY Act White House discussion.

20 Feb 2026, 08:17

New SEC Guidance Allows Security Tokens to Trade Directly With Bitcoin

The U.S. SEC Division of Trading and Markets has issued updated guidance on crypto market activity, providing greater clarity for exchanges, broker-dealers, and alternative trading systems (ATSs). Visit Website