hodler

19 Feb 2026, 02:00

Arizona Senate votes ‘Do Pass’ on XRP reserve – Here’s why this matters

Continued fundamental growth and rising state recognition may finally turn the long-debated $589 XRP target from speculation into potential reality.

18 Feb 2026, 23:36

Did Hong Kong-based fund Laurore LTD cause the October 10 crash?

The entire crypto community spent months wondering why Bitcoin crashed in October last year. As such, everyone eagerly waited for major institutional investment managers to file their quarterly 13F reports with the SEC so they could reveal which funds were buying or selling Bitcoin ETFs around the time of the crash. But the answers they got might not be the answers they wanted. From the last filings due on Valentine’s Day and formally reported yesterday due to Monday’s Presidents’ Day holiday, the spotlight immediately fell on Laurore LTD, a relatively unknown Hong Kong-based entity that showed up in BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) holder list with 8.79 million shares (around $436 million). It was Bitwise advisor Jeff Park, who flagged the filing yesterday , February 17, describing Laurore as “the biggest new entrant into IBIT” from “a brand new entity with no website. No press. No footprint.” The news triggered immediate speculation: was this mystery fund the hammer that smashed Bitcoin from $127,000 to $102,000 in 40 minutes back in October last year? Q4 holdings show Laurore built its position after the crash DeFi Development Corporation CIO, Parker White , noted that Laurore’s IBIT stake was built during the fourth quarter of 2025, which began on October 1 and ended December 31. However, Parker did observe that major options market makers “MASSIVELY increased their long vol exposure to IBIT via both CALL and PUT buying,” according to yesterday’s Q4 13F filings. In his post, Parker mentioned what he thought were “comical” position size increases by Jane Street, SIG, IMC, Citadel, and Marex, some of the largest options market makers in the world. “690% increase in calls from JPM (likely tied to their structured product offerings), 102% increase from Barclays, etc.” Parker mentioned. The DeFi Development Corporation claimed that someone is massively short on the other side of these “massive CALL and PUT buying by the dealers.” 13F filings currently do not require funds to report short positions in options, only long positions. Parker ended the post not completely exonerating Laurore: “So then, with this much positioning, if the short positioning was concentrated with just a few funds (or maybe a single HK-based fund as I’ve predicted), then a blow up is completely inevitable.” However, in a later post on the same day, Parker admitted: “I kinda don’t think they are the HK fund that blew up, but nonetheless, interesting,” referring to Laurore. Chinese capital could be rerouting funds to US ETFs Park’s analysis focused more on finding out information about Laurore than the cause of the crash, though. He observed that the filer’s name was Zhang Hui, which he described as the “Chinese equivalent of John Smith”, a name so common it also serves as camouflage, thus drawing more raised eyebrows. From the SEC filings, Laurore listed its address as Suites 2907-8, 29F, Two Exchange Square, 8 Connaught Place, Central, Hong Kong. This is one of the city’s most prestigious financial districts. Park also noted that the Ltd suffix potentially indicates a Cayman Islands or British Virgin Islands shell structure commonly used by wealthy users or institutions with restricted capital to access US securities markets. Based on the similarities in the signatory name and address, Parker White believes that Laurore might be a subsidiary of Hao Advisors Management, although with some skepticism. He also claimed that the setup was done professionally, so it could not have been an amateur operation. What makes Laurore interesting, however, is the capital flow associated with it. Since Chinese citizens cannot legally hold Bitcoin directly, Park suggested that the filing could represent “an early sign of institutional Chinese capital moving into Bitcoin through a regulated US ETF rather than through exchanges or gray-market channels.” The theory makes sense since IBIT offers institutional-grade Bitcoin exposure with BlackRock’s $10 trillion valuation, full SEC oversight, and huge liquidity. This means a Cayman Islands-based organization holding IBIT shares through a Hong Kong address can still maintain plausible deniability. 13F filings rule out institutional conspiracy The Valentine’s Day filing deadline failed to produce concrete evidence tying institutional players to the October incident. Nonetheless, Park’s main point about transparency is still true. Since registered investment advisors managing over $100 million are mandated to disclose all equity holdings per quarter, offshore entities like Laurore that choose US ETF exposure have to voluntarily subject themselves to the public scrutiny that comes with the territory. Don’t just read crypto news. Understand it. Subscribe to our newsletter. It's free .

18 Feb 2026, 23:15

Australia Unemployment Rate Edges Up: Resilient Labor Market Defies Economic Headwinds

BitcoinWorld Australia Unemployment Rate Edges Up: Resilient Labor Market Defies Economic Headwinds SYDNEY, Australia – Recent data indicates the Australian unemployment rate is set for a marginal increase, a development that analysts view within the broader context of a remarkably resilient national labor market. This nuanced shift presents a critical juncture for policymakers and economists monitoring the nation’s economic health in 2025. The underlying strength of employment figures continues to buffer the economy against global inflationary pressures and slowing growth. Australia’s Unemployment Rate in Historical Context The anticipated uptick in the unemployment rate follows a prolonged period of historic tightness in the labor market. For over two years, Australia maintained an unemployment rate near multi-decade lows, consistently below 4%. This tightness fueled significant wage growth and created a candidate-driven market. However, recent months show a gradual cooling. The Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) series of interest rate hikes, designed to curb inflation, have begun to moderate economic activity. Consequently, business hiring intentions have softened slightly, leading to this expected normalization in jobless figures. Economists emphasize that this movement represents a recalibration rather than a downturn. The participation rate—the proportion of people working or seeking work—remains elevated. This high participation suggests underlying confidence in job prospects. Furthermore, job vacancies, while declining from record peaks, still sit significantly above pre-pandemic levels. This indicates persistent demand for workers across several key sectors, creating a floor beneath which the unemployment rate is unlikely to fall rapidly. Structural Strengths of the Australian Labor Market Several structural factors underpin the labor market’s continued robustness despite economic headwinds. The ongoing transition to a net-zero economy drives demand in renewable energy, green construction, and related engineering fields. Simultaneously, chronic skills shortages in healthcare, education, and technology sustain hiring activity. Government infrastructure commitments also provide a pipeline of long-term projects requiring substantial workforces. Key resilient sectors include: Healthcare and Social Assistance: Aging demographics ensure sustained demand. Professional, Scientific & Technical Services: Thrives on innovation and digital transformation. Education and Training: Essential for addressing skills gaps. Construction: Supported by both public infrastructure and housing needs. Regional variations also play a crucial role. Mining states like Western Australia and Queensland often experience lower unemployment due to resource sector demand. In contrast, more diversified economies like New South Wales and Victoria may see slightly higher rates but greater job diversity. This geographic distribution prevents a nationwide employment shock. Expert Analysis on Wage-Price Dynamics Dr. Sarah Chen, a labor economist at the Australian National University, provides critical insight. “The marginal rise in unemployment is a expected outcome of monetary policy transmission,” she states. “The RBA’s goal was to ease labor market tightness to help moderate wage growth and, by extension, inflation. What we are observing is a controlled moderation, not a collapse in demand. The real test will be whether this occurs without triggering a sharper rise in unemployment later in 2025.” This perspective highlights the delicate balance the RBA seeks. The bank aims to cool inflation without causing a recessionary spike in joblessness. Current data suggests this ‘soft landing’ scenario remains plausible. Wage growth data will be the next critical indicator to watch, as it reflects both worker bargaining power and business cost pressures. Comparative International Labor Market Performance Australia’s labor market performance remains strong by international standards. When compared to other advanced economies, its unemployment trajectory is favorable. Comparative Unemployment Rates (Latest Data) Country Unemployment Rate Trend Australia ~4.1% Edging up gradually United States ~4.0% Relatively stable Canada ~5.8% Moderate increase United Kingdom ~4.3% Gradual rise Euro Area ~6.5% Historically low but stable This comparison shows Australia maintaining a competitive position. Its rate remains near the lower end of the spectrum, reflecting the domestic economy’s underlying resilience. The nation has largely avoided the more severe post-pandemic labor force disruptions seen in some Northern Hemisphere countries, partly due to different fiscal and immigration policy responses. Policy Implications and Future Projections The evolving unemployment data carries significant implications for public policy. The federal government faces dual pressures: managing inflation concerns while supporting employment. Treasury’s latest forecasts likely incorporate this mild uptick, adjusting budget estimates for welfare payments and tax receipts. Policymakers will also monitor underemployment—people wanting more work hours—which can rise even as the headline unemployment rate moves slowly. Migration settings represent another critical lever. A skilled migration intake helps address acute labor shortages without exacerbating wage inflation in specific sectors. However, it must be calibrated to avoid adding excessive demand for housing and services. The government’s recent migration strategy aims for this balance, focusing on attracting workers in priority sectors with genuine shortages. Looking forward, most bank and institutional forecasts project the unemployment rate to continue a gentle upward trajectory through 2025, potentially reaching around 4.3-4.5% by year’s end. This projection assumes no further major external shocks. The consensus suggests the labor market will transition from being ‘extremely tight’ to ‘moderately tight,’ a healthier environment for sustainable, non-inflationary growth. Conclusion The anticipated edge upwards in Australia’s unemployment rate signifies a controlled economic adjustment, not a signal of distress. It occurs within a labor market demonstrating remarkable structural strength, characterized by high participation, solid job vacancy levels, and sectoral resilience. This development aligns with the RBA’s objectives for moderating inflation. For job seekers, the environment remains favorable compared to historical standards, though competition may intensify slightly. The key focus for 2025 will be whether this moderation remains gradual, allowing the economy to achieve the coveted soft landing and sustain the overall strong labor market conditions that have defined Australia’s post-pandemic recovery. FAQs Q1: Why is Australia’s unemployment rate increasing if the labor market is strong? The increase is marginal and reflects a deliberate cooling from historically ultra-tight conditions. It results from higher interest rates slowing economic activity slightly. Strength is evidenced by high participation, many job vacancies, and low underemployment, indicating a robust market normalizing, not collapsing. Q2: Which sectors are most likely to see job losses or reduced hiring? Sectors most sensitive to interest rates and consumer discretionary spending may slow hiring first. This includes retail trade, some areas of construction finance, and parts of the hospitality sector. In contrast, healthcare, education, technology, and infrastructure-related industries are expected to remain strong. Q3: How does this affect wage growth for Australian workers? Wage growth is likely to moderate from recent highs but should remain positive. As labor market tightness eases slightly, the intense competition for staff that drove rapid wage increases will soften. However, ongoing skills shortages in critical industries will continue to support above-average wage growth in those fields. Q4: What should job seekers expect in this changing environment? Job seekers may find the market slightly more competitive, but opportunities remain abundant compared to pre-pandemic levels. Emphasizing in-demand skills, particularly in digital, care, and green economies, will be advantageous. Networking and demonstrating adaptability remain key strategies. Q5: Could this trend lead to a recession in Australia? Most economists view the current trend as a moderation, not a precursor to recession. The rise in unemployment is projected to be gradual and from a very low base. The RBA’s goal is to engineer a ‘soft landing’ where inflation returns to target without causing a major economic downturn. Current indicators suggest this remains the most likely scenario. This post Australia Unemployment Rate Edges Up: Resilient Labor Market Defies Economic Headwinds first appeared on BitcoinWorld .

18 Feb 2026, 22:23

Real estate billionaire Barry Sternlicht is ready to tokenize assets, but says U.S. regulation blocks it

The $125 billion real estate firm wants to offer blockchain-based tokens to clients but is stalled by regulation.

18 Feb 2026, 21:00

XRP’s Real Value Will Arrive When Infrastructure Is Ready — Here’s Why

The long-term value of XRP is increasingly tied to the development of the global financial infrastructure it was designed to support. Rather than relying on short-term price speculation or fixed adoption timelines, XRP was designed to operate at the plumbing level of global finance, where adoption depends on regulatory clarity, institutional integration, liquidity depth, and real transaction flow. These systems are built quietly, tested extensively, and activated only when reliability is proven. Why Financial Infrastructure Comes Before XRP Mass Adoption XRP’s journey has never been hitting precise timestamps on the chart, because utility does not operate on a calendar. An analyst known as ChartNerd on X has revealed that the journey to $27 has been a projected path for years, and based on a stack of multiple Fibonacci time maps and extension targets, the road to 2030 is where the vision fully aligns. Related Reading: Ripple’s Next Steps: Where XRP Stops Being Trade And Starts Being Infrastrucutre ChartNerd argues that what the market is witnessing right now is the groundwork for the foundation-building phase led by Ripple, following regulatory clarity from the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). This phase includes expanding institutional infrastructure, banking charters, and ETF inflows, all of which require time to scale before translating into measurable price impact. In that context, the short-term noise might fluctuate about the price action. However, the macro trend for XRP points toward progressive valuation milestones of $8, $13, and ultimately the $27 zone targets as the global settlement adoption scales. This thesis is not about timing individual candles, but about a structural shift towards 2030, where utility-driven value overtakes market speculation. How The XRP Ledger Becomes A Safe Infrastructure To Integrate The passing of the Clarity Act would mark a decisive turning point for XRP. A crypto analyst known as Bird on X has noted that the leading altcoin already has a unique level of legal clarity due to prior court rulings that confirmed it is not inherently a security when traded on secondary markets, an advantage most digital assets are still waiting to acquire. Related Reading: Japan’s XRP Integration Signals A Shift In Global Capital Flows According to Bird, the Clarity Act would move a step further by establishing a defined regulatory framework for digital assets, especially how they are classified and used, removing uncertainty for institutions, payment providers, and large-scale capital allocators. Once the rules are written into law, the biggest barrier, which is regulatory hesitation, will no longer sit in the background of every integration decision. With regulatory hesitation reduced, broader adoption can accelerate, liquidity will deepen, and real utility can finally scale at speed, because companies can now gain the confidence to build on and integrate the XRP Ledger (XRPL) without worrying about sudden rule changes. Featured image from Adobe Stock, chart from Tradingview.com

18 Feb 2026, 20:40

FOMC Minutes Unleash Hawkish Surge: USD Firms as ECB Succession Drama Unfolds

BitcoinWorld FOMC Minutes Unleash Hawkish Surge: USD Firms as ECB Succession Drama Unfolds Global forex markets entered a new phase of volatility this week as the U.S. dollar found renewed vigor following the release of hawkish Federal Open Market Committee minutes. Meanwhile, across the Atlantic, escalating speculation over the European Central Bank’s next president injected fresh uncertainty into the euro’s trajectory. Consequently, traders are now navigating a landscape defined by diverging central bank narratives and shifting political winds. FOMC Minutes Reveal Underlying Hawkish Resolve The Federal Reserve released the minutes from its April-May policy meeting on Wednesday, May 21, 2025. Market participants immediately scrutinized the document for clues about the future path of interest rates. Significantly, the minutes revealed a committee more concerned about persistent inflation than previously communicated. Several members expressed willingness to tighten policy further if incoming data showed insufficient progress on price stability. This stance provided a powerful tailwind for the U.S. dollar. The DXY Dollar Index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of six major currencies, rallied 0.8% in the subsequent 24-hour trading session. Moreover, the USD/JPY pair breached the 158.00 level, a multi-decade high. Analysts point to two key drivers from the minutes: Patience on Rate Cuts: The discussion showed a consensus for maintaining the current restrictive stance for longer, pushing back market expectations for the timing of the first rate cut. Data Dependence: Officials emphasized that their decisions would remain “meeting-by-meeting,” tied closely to inflation reports, jobs data, and broader economic activity. This firm messaging contrasts with a more dovish tilt observed in some other major economies. Therefore, the interest rate differential story, a classic forex driver, has regained prominence. ECB Leadership Vacuum Weighs on the Euro Simultaneously, political maneuvering in Europe is clouding the monetary policy outlook for the Eurozone. The term of the current ECB President, Christine Lagarde, concludes in October 2025. The succession process, always a delicate political ballet, has become particularly contentious this cycle. Currently, no clear consensus candidate has emerged from behind-the-scenes discussions among EU member states. This uncertainty creates a tangible headwind for the euro. Typically, markets prefer continuity and predictability in central bank leadership, especially during periods of economic fragility. The EUR/USD pair fell 0.6% following the FOMC release, but analysts note it underperformed other majors, suggesting an ECB-specific discount. The key concerns for forex traders are: Policy Direction: Will the next president maintain a hawkish stance to combat inflation or pivot toward growth support? Credibility: A politically fraught appointment process could undermine the perceived independence of the institution. Central Bank Policy Stance Comparison (May 2025) Central Bank Current Policy Rate Forward Guidance Market Sentiment U.S. Federal Reserve 5.25% – 5.50% Hawkish Hold USD Positive European Central Bank 4.00% Data-Dependent, Leadership Uncertainty EUR Cautious/Negative Bank of Japan 0.0% – 0.1% Ultra-Accommodative, Watching Yen JPY Negative Expert Analysis on the Forex Crossroads Financial institutions are adjusting their forecasts in response to these developments. For instance, strategists at major investment banks highlight the growing policy divergence. “The Fed’s minutes closed the door on imminent easing,” noted a senior currency analyst. “Conversely, the ECB is now fighting a two-front war: managing inflation and its own internal politics. This dynamic inherently supports a stronger dollar in the near term.” Historical data supports this view. Periods of Federal Reserve policy tightening, especially when coupled with stability or easing elsewhere, have frequently led to broad-based USD appreciation. The current environment echoes elements of the 2014-2015 “Taper Tantrum” period, though with distinct global economic conditions. Furthermore, geopolitical tensions and commodity price fluctuations add additional layers of complexity to currency valuations. Market Impact and Trader Positioning The immediate reaction in the forex market has been pronounced. Beyond the major pairs, emerging market currencies have also felt pressure. Higher U.S. yields and a robust dollar typically increase borrowing costs and capital outflow risks for developing economies. Meanwhile, the CFTC’s Commitments of Traders report will be closely watched next week for signs of extended long positioning on the dollar. Risk sentiment in equity markets has become more cautious. A stronger dollar can negatively impact the earnings of U.S. multinational corporations. Additionally, it tightens global financial conditions. For retail forex traders, volatility presents both opportunity and risk. Key technical levels are being tested, and breakouts could signal sustained trends. Therefore, attention now turns to upcoming data releases, including the U.S. PCE inflation report and Eurozone CPI figures, which will provide the next major catalysts. Conclusion The release of the FOMC minutes has solidified a hawkish narrative for the U.S. Federal Reserve, providing fundamental support for U.S. dollar strength. Concurrently, the unfolding ECB succession drama introduces a unique element of political uncertainty that weighs on the euro. This divergence in central bank clarity and direction is the dominant theme in the current forex market . Traders must now monitor economic data for confirmation of the Fed’s stance and political developments in Europe for clues on future central bank policy . The interplay between these forces will likely dictate currency valuations throughout the second quarter of 2025. FAQs Q1: What was the key takeaway from the latest FOMC minutes? The primary takeaway was a more hawkish-than-expected tone, with Fed officials expressing greater concern about persistent inflation and a willingness to maintain restrictive policy for longer, delaying expectations for interest rate cuts. Q2: Why does ECB succession matter for the euro? The leadership appointment influences future monetary policy direction. Uncertainty over the next president’s stance on inflation versus growth creates volatility and can lead to a “political discount” on the currency until a credible candidate is confirmed. Q3: Which currency pairs are most affected by these developments? EUR/USD is directly impacted by the divergence between Fed and ECB policy. USD/JPY is sensitive to rising U.S. yields. GBP/USD and AUD/USD are also vulnerable to broad USD strength. Q4: How might this affect other financial markets? A stronger dollar can pressure global equity markets, particularly export-oriented and emerging market stocks. It also increases the burden of dollar-denominated debt for foreign entities and can suppress commodity prices. Q5: What data should traders watch next? The U.S. Core PCE Price Index (the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge) and monthly Non-Farm Payrolls reports are critical. For Europe, inflation (CPI) data and any official statements regarding the ECB presidential selection process are key. This post FOMC Minutes Unleash Hawkish Surge: USD Firms as ECB Succession Drama Unfolds first appeared on BitcoinWorld .