hodler

10 Jun 2026, 00:08

Grayscale: Bitcoin is Undervalued, But Not as Cheap as Past

According to Grayscale’s latest research report, on-chain valuation metrics are showing that BTC is trading below its long-term average at $60,000. This indicator is telling that BTC is cheap, but not as much as previous cyclical lows during previous crashes like the FTX bear run in 2022. The company stated that the ongoing regulatory developments around the CLARITY Act and the stability of leveraged BTC holders. On June 9, Grayscale shared a report regarding Bitcoin’s current price movement amid the bearish sentiment in the overall crypto market. Grayscale Research Says, This Bear Market is Shallower Than Previous Cycles According to the research by Grayscale, on-chain data suggests that Bitcoin is currently trading below its long-term average, and it looks undervalued. However, the company mentioned that the price of Bitcoin is not as cheap as it was during the past bear market cycle during the FTX collapse in 2022. The research stated that, “On-chain metrics suggest Bitcoin is undervalued, but not as cheap as previous cycle lows. Whether we have found the market bottom will depend on upcoming catalysts and the CLARITY Act, but we believe this is a buying opportunity for investors with long-term horizons.” To do this research, Grayscale has used a composite on-chain valuation indicator. This is an average of many popular metrics. According to this indicator, Bitcoin is selling at a discount compared to its previous norms. However, the company made it clear that the current bear market has been mild in comparison to the previous cycles. “We believe that this bear market may be shallower than in the past, given a more muted preceding bull market, as well as improvements in market structure from ETP availability, wealth platform deployment, and other types of institutional adoption,” stated the research. In the report, the investors are currently focusing on the regulatory developments around the digital asset sector and how leveraged BTC holders are performing in the short term. Grayscale has mentioned two factors behind BTC’s price movement on the short-term chart. The first one is the progress in the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act (CLARITY) in the Senate. In May, the Senate Banking Committee approved the CLARITY Act after a long delay in the process. Senator Cynthia Lummis stated in the post on X, saying that, “ I’ve spent years building toward this moment. The Clarity Act is the most consequential financial legislation of this generation, and we are going to get it done.” The major factor to watch for investors is whether leveraged Bitcoin holders will be able to stabilize their balance sheet. “ We believe that current price levels offer an opportunity for investors with long-term investment horizons to consider dollar-cost averaging their Bitcoin purchases. More tactical traders may want to consider waiting on CLARITY,” a Grayscale researcher said. Bitcoin Struggles to Recover Amid Major ETF Outflows According to CoinMarketCap , BTC is currently trading at around $61,901 after witnessing a drop of 21% in the last 30 days. This turmoil in the financial world has created intense selling pressure in the crypto market as investors have started pulling out their money. Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) like BlackRock ETFs have witnessed the longest streak of outflow of its history, which lasted for 13 days. In total, investors have withdrawn around $4.4 billion worth of investments. Even BTC ETFs are still witnessing major outflows. On June 5, BTC ETFs recorded an outflow of around $325.7 million, according to Farside . On June 8, it witnessed an outflow of around $91.4 million. This is showing the depleting trust of institutional investors in the crypto market during high volatility periods.

9 Jun 2026, 23:50

Pound Sterling’s Retail Therapy Fades as Rally Hits Familiar Ceiling

BitcoinWorld Pound Sterling’s Retail Therapy Fades as Rally Hits Familiar Ceiling The British Pound attempted a modest recovery this week, buoyed by a surprisingly strong UK retail sales report, but the rally quickly ran out of steam as it approached a well-established technical ceiling. The move highlights the persistent headwinds facing Sterling, even as domestic data provides occasional flashes of resilience. Retail Data Provides Brief Lift Official figures released on Friday showed UK retail sales volumes rose by 0.5% in the latest month, comfortably beating economists’ forecasts of a 0.3% increase. The data offered a rare bright spot for the UK economy, which has been grappling with subdued consumer confidence and elevated living costs. The Pound initially jumped against the US Dollar, climbing towards the 1.2700 mark, as traders interpreted the report as a sign that consumer spending might be stabilizing. The Ceiling That Won’t Break However, the rally stalled almost immediately at the 1.2720 resistance level, a zone that has capped Sterling advances multiple times over the past six weeks. This technical barrier, reinforced by the 200-day moving average, proved too strong for the momentum generated by the retail data alone. Analysts note that while the headline sales figure was positive, underlying details—such as a decline in non-store retailing and persistent price sensitivity among shoppers—tempered the optimism. Why the Rally Fizzled The failure to break higher underscores a broader market reality: positive domestic data is currently insufficient to shift the Pound’s trajectory against a resilient US Dollar. The Federal Reserve’s hawkish stance, coupled with safe-haven demand for the greenback amid global uncertainties, continues to provide a strong counterweight. Furthermore, the Bank of England’s cautious approach to monetary easing, while supportive in the long term, has not yet convinced markets that UK interest rates will remain elevated relative to peers. Conclusion For now, the Pound remains trapped in a familiar range. The retail sales report provided a temporary boost, but it did not change the underlying technical or fundamental dynamics. Traders will now look to upcoming UK inflation and GDP data for a clearer catalyst. Until a decisive break above the 1.2720-1.2750 resistance zone occurs, Sterling’s recovery attempts are likely to remain short-lived. FAQs Q1: What caused the Pound to rise this week? A: The main catalyst was a better-than-expected UK retail sales report for the latest month, which suggested consumer spending was holding up better than many had anticipated. Q2: Why did the Pound’s rally stop? A: The rally hit a strong technical resistance level around 1.2720 against the US Dollar, which has acted as a ceiling for several weeks. Broader US Dollar strength also limited further gains. Q3: What should traders watch next for GBP/USD? A: Key upcoming data includes UK inflation figures and GDP growth numbers. A sustained break above the 1.2720-1.2750 resistance zone would be needed to signal a more significant trend change. This post Pound Sterling’s Retail Therapy Fades as Rally Hits Familiar Ceiling first appeared on BitcoinWorld .

9 Jun 2026, 23:45

How Justin Ernest invested nearly $400M into hot startups without a traditional VC fund

BitcoinWorld How Justin Ernest invested nearly $400M into hot startups without a traditional VC fund Last year, Justin Ernest identified a critical disconnect in the venture capital market: family offices and smaller institutional investors were eager to back the fastest-growing AI companies but found themselves locked out of those cap tables. With over five years of experience at Playground Global investing in deep tech and leading fundraising efforts, Ernest saw an opportunity to bridge that gap using his extensive network of both investors and founders. Building a bridge without a fund Instead of launching a formal VC fund — a process he says can take new managers 12 to 18 months — Ernest leveraged his relationships to secure allocations of stock in high-profile, later-stage companies. He then offers these individual deals to a group of about 30 smaller institutional investors using Special Purpose Vehicles (SPVs), which function as single-deal funds. Over the past 12 months, his firm, Sabertooth VC, has deployed nearly $400 million into 10 companies, including Anthropic, Anduril, Databricks, PsiQuantum, and SpaceX. Each deal is treated as its own separate fund, typically structured as an SPV, where investors buy shares in a vehicle that directly owns the stock. Checks range from $10 million to $275 million, giving Sabertooth significant stakes in official, company-approved funding rounds. Reputation as a differentiator Sabertooth is not the only firm offering family offices access to equity in individual high-profile startups. However, Ernest has quickly raised substantial capital because he has built a reputation for legitimacy in a space sometimes clouded by questionable practices. “Justin is authentically an investor,” said Benjamin Wagner, a CIO for a family office managing wealth for 50 individuals. “He has judgment, he has expertise, he’s very technical. That really distinguishes him from other organizations that tend to, in my opinion, just try to aggregate capital.” Wagner’s confidence was reinforced when he tried to invest directly in PsiQuantum, a quantum computing startup last valued at $7 billion. The company’s CFO suggested he invest through Sabertooth instead. “So, the first time I met him, I knew he was legitimate,” Wagner said. “Justin’s access is definitely different from some of these fly-by-night organizations.” That validation is crucial. At a time when startups like Anthropic and Anduril are cracking down on unauthorized SPVs, investing through Sabertooth gives smaller limited partners peace of mind, knowing their money is entrusted to an investor directly vetted and respected by the companies themselves. From speech impediment to network nucleus Beyond technical knowledge, the Harvard Business School graduate honed his communication skills after largely overcoming a childhood speech impediment. Ernest credits his ability to secure stock allocations in coveted tech companies to his wide network. “I’ve always found that my sort of superpower is being the nucleus of my network, and I like to use that and utilize that in a very strategic way,” he told Bitcoin World. For instance, he can generally raise investor capital for a new SPV from family offices on a tight timeline. “I have a captive set of LPs,” he said. “I can usually make four or five or six phone calls, and I know exactly what my LPs will commit.” Returns and the path to a traditional fund Ernest told Bitcoin World that for now, he wants to continue growing his business of raising funds for specific companies on behalf of his dedicated LP base. However, his ultimate goal is to eventually raise a traditional venture fund. That’s a difficult task, but he believes Sabertooth’s strong returns via these one-off SPVs will prove his track record — something investors care about most when deciding to back a new fund. He is already on his way. Sabertooth has had one major return from chipmaker Groq, which was licensed and acqui-hired by Nvidia for $20 billion late last year. Next up are SpaceX’s highly anticipated IPO this Friday and Anthropic’s expected public listing later this year, both poised to deliver an even greater windfall for his investors. While SPVs do not carry the same street cred as traditional VC funds, Ernest remains confident that starting with them and earning a solid reputation with family offices — rather than launching an emerging venture fund and competing head-on — was the right strategic move. “I wanted to be in the action,” he said. “I think this will end up being one of the best vintages of our lifetime.” Conclusion Justin Ernest’s approach demonstrates a viable alternative to the traditional VC model, particularly for investors seeking access to late-stage, high-growth startups. By focusing on relationships, transparency, and proven returns through SPVs, he has built a bridge for family offices and smaller institutions that might otherwise be left out. Whether this model will ultimately lead to a traditional fund remains to be seen, but his early results suggest a strong foundation for long-term success. FAQs Q1: What is an SPV in venture capital? A Special Purpose Vehicle (SPV) is a legal entity created for a single investment deal. It allows multiple investors to pool their capital to purchase shares in a specific company, rather than committing to a broader fund. SPVs are often used to give smaller investors access to high-demand startups. Q2: Why do family offices use firms like Sabertooth VC? Family offices often lack the direct relationships needed to secure allocations in top-tier, later-stage startups. Firms like Sabertooth VC provide vetted access, due diligence, and a trusted intermediary, reducing the risk of unauthorized or illegitimate deals. Q3: What are the risks of investing through SPVs? SPVs can carry higher fees, less diversification, and limited liquidity compared to traditional VC funds. Additionally, some SPVs may operate without proper company approval, leading to potential legal or reputational risks. Working with a reputable firm like Sabertooth helps mitigate these concerns. This post How Justin Ernest invested nearly $400M into hot startups without a traditional VC fund first appeared on BitcoinWorld .

9 Jun 2026, 23:39

Kalshi adds employer checks for traders participating in sensitive prediction markets to curb insider trading

U.S.-registered trading platform Kalshi said some of its traders would be required to disclose their employers when they speculate on the outcome of market outcomes related to corporate earnings, new product introductions and national security-related topics, among others, spokesman said Tuesday. The new compliance layer follows recommendations from Kalshi’s Independent Surveillance Audit Committee, which identified gaps in the platform’s ability to detect insider trading before it occurs. The employer-check requirement targets markets where traders could profit from material nonpublic information, according to the Wall Street Journal . Kalshi currently collects addresses, dates of birth, phone numbers, identity documents and partial Social Security numbers, but employment data has not previously been part of its verification process. The committee found that the current setup at Kalshi would likely result in manual investigation of possible insider relationships on a case-by-case basis only after illegal trading has been suspected. If employee records were also added, the report noted, market surveillance, initial investigations and deterrence capabilities would likely be enhanced. Kalshi’s Independent Committee pushes stronger surveillance measures In addition to the employment check, Kalshi will also offer upgraded whistle-blower features which allow traders to report suspicious market behavior directly on market pages. The exchange also revealed that over 20 referrals were submitted to regulators and law enforcement authorities by Kalshi in the first quarter of 2026 based on perceived issues of insider trading and market manipulation. One referral reportedly involved former Rep. George Santos (R-N.Y.), who was reported to federal authorities after Kalshi detected suspicious trading activity tied to a market on whether he would attend President Donald Trump’s State of the Union address. Santos has denied wrongdoing. Compliance push comes amid Polymarket insider trading cases Kalshi’s new measures arrive as federal prosecutors pursue insider trading-related cases tied to rival prediction market platform Polymarket. As Cryptopolitan earlier reported , Polymarket updated its market integrity rules earlier this year, extending restrictions on insider trading and market manipulation across its platform. In April, a U.S. Army soldier was charged with allegedly using classified information related to Venezuelan leader Nicolas Maduro’s capture to place profitable trades on Polymarket. In May, a Google employee was charged with allegedly using confidential data from Google’s annual search trends report to generate roughly $1.2 million in trading profits on the platform. Polymarket operates primarily outside the United States after a 2022 settlement with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission required it to wind down noncompliant U.S.-facilitated markets. Kalshi already maintains restrictions on participation in certain event contracts by individuals with direct access to sensitive information. The company recently added facial-recognition verification and said employment information generally will not be verified proactively. Instead, proof of employment may be requested if suspicious trading activity triggers an investigation. Meanwhile, regulators and lawmakers continue debating whether the growing prediction market industry can effectively police insider trading risks. Don’t just read crypto news. Understand it. Subscribe to our newsletter. It's free .

9 Jun 2026, 23:30

Bitcoin Stablecoin Ratio Drops To Extreme Low—What It Means For BTC

On-chain data shows the RSI of the Bitcoin Stablecoin Supply Ratio (SSR) has dropped to a low of 13, a sign that the stablecoin supply is high relative to the BTC market cap. Bitcoin SSR RSI Has Sharply Gone Down Recently In a new post on X, CryptoQuant analyst Maartunn has discussed the latest trend in the RSI of the Bitcoin SSR. The “SSR” is an on-chain indicator that measures the ratio between the market cap of BTC and the combined valuation of all stablecoins. Related Reading: XRP Could Offer Major Buying Opportunity At $0.90, Analyst Says Stablecoins, digital assets that have their price pegged to a fiat currency, serve a different purpose in the sector than volatile assets like BTC. Generally, investors store their capital in the form of stablecoins whenever they want to avoid the volatility associated with other cryptocurrencies. These holders tend to eventually venture back into BTC and other coins, and when they do, they swap their stables in favor of them. Because of this, stablecoins are often looked at as a representation of the potential “dry powder” waiting on the sidelines for the volatile side of the sector. As the SSR tracks the market cap of Bitcoin against these assets, it essentially tells us about how the value of the number one cryptocurrency compares to this dry powder. In the context of the current topic, the SSR itself isn’t directly of relevance, but rather its Relative Strength Index (RSI), a momentum oscillator tracking the magnitude and speed of recent changes in the metric. Now, here is the chart shared by Maartunn that shows the trend in the Bitcoin SSR RSI over the last few years: As displayed in the above graph, the Bitcoin SSR RSI has witnessed a notable drawdown recently and has entered into the “undervalued” zone. This means that the SSR has declined enough that it may be probable to see a rebound. Currently, the indicator is sitting at a value of 13, which is quite low when compared to the past. “There’s a lot of stablecoin liquidity sitting on the sidelines relative to Bitcoin’s market cap,” noted the analyst. This low has arrived as BTC and other assets have observed a steep bearish trajectory. It now remains to be seen whether investors will start deploying the excess stablecoin capital into the market to buy at these lower prices, potentially helping the assets stabilize. Related Reading: Bitcoin Recovery Needs This To Happen, Glassnode Analyst Reveals In some other news, the recent Bitcoin drawdown has meant that a huge amount of supply has entered into a state of loss. As highlighted by Maartunn in another X post, 52% of the cryptocurrency’s supply in circulation is now underwater. BTC Price At the time of writing, Bitcoin is floating around $62,700, down nearly 10% in the last seven days. Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView.com

9 Jun 2026, 23:30

Bitcoin Close To Setting A New Record Despite Price Crash, But Can This Save BTC?

Market experts note that Bitcoin (BTC) is currently showing a strange mix of strength and weakness, with transaction activity climbing toward record levels even as its price continues to fall. At the moment, the market is under severe bearish pressure, yet on-chain data suggests a major shift could be underway. If this bullish trend continues, the key question remains whether it could help support a Bitcoin price recovery and prevent further downtrends. Bitcoin High Transaction Count To Hit Record Levels Soon Bitcoin is seeing an unusual spike in on-chain activity even as its price continues to bleed . Sharing a CryptoQuant chart showcasing the sharp spike, crypto analyst Darkfost highlighted that a historic change of hands is now playing out, with BTC transactions approaching an all-time high based on the 30-day Moving Average (MA). Darkfost noted that Bitcoin’s price decline has accelerated sharply in June, declining by roughly 19% just this week and adding further pressure to its already fragile structure. Despite the downtrend, the analyst noted that the cryptocurrency’s average monthly transaction count is now around 640,000. He noted that this level is close to what was last seen during the 2024 BTC price correction, when the crypto network recorded a whopping 666,000 transactions in September, marking one of its busiest periods. Darkfost noted that the recent surge in BTC on-chain activity is unusual compared to previous cycles, as rising transaction counts typically coincide with bullish phases or market tops . However, the current trend indicates that BTC is firmly in bearish territory and has declined below previously presumed bottom levels. As a result, the analyst described the current surge in transaction activity as a major “capitulation episode” and one of the most significant “change of hands” in Bitcoin’s history. Given the extent of BTC’s bearish trend, it remains unclear whether increased transaction activity alone can lift the cryptocurrency’s price out of its downtrend. Short-Term Sellers See Heavy Losses As BTC Price Drop Continues In a separate analysis, Darkfost noted that short-term Bitcoin holders are facing major losses after reacting strongly to the latest Bitcoin price drop. According to him, holders with positions under six months were hit the hardest when BTC’s price slipped below $60,000 during last week’s correction. Over a 24-hour window, at the height of the decline, Darkfost stated that more than 60,200 BTC were sent to exchanges by short-term holders. Of that total, over 59,000 BTC were moved at a loss, marking the largest negative returns for this group since February. The data showed that emotional selling played a major role in the move, with newer market participants locking in losses under pressure. This trend shows how quickly sentiment can shift during sharp corrections, especially among short-term traders.