hodler

25 Feb 2026, 21:43

XRP Climbs 10% In Bullish Trade

25 Feb 2026, 21:41

Solana Fakeout Flip Shocks Bears as Bullish Divergence Builds

Solana flipped a downside range break back into support after a quick sweep on both sides of the range. Meanwhile, traders pointed to bullish divergence signals that could grow across higher timeframes if support holds. Solana reclaims breakdown after range sweeps, analyst flags bullish divergence Solana traded near $78 on Coinbase’s 4 hour SOLUSD chart after price swept both sides of a recent range and then reclaimed a break to the downside, according to crypto trader Bluntz Capital, who posts on X as @Bluntz_Capital. The latest candle in the screenshot showed SOL at about $78.27, up roughly 1.25% on the session, after earlier trading between about $77.23 and $78.56. Solana U.S. Dollar 4 hour chart (SOLUSD, Coinbase). Source: TradingView / X The chart showed Solana still below key moving averages, with the 50 period simple moving average near $82.67 and the 100 period near $83.50, while the 200 period sat much higher around $96.88. Inside the marked range box, price pushed below the lower boundary before snapping back, a move the analyst described as a reclaimed breakdown following a liquidity sweep. Bluntz said the setup includes a bullish divergence on the 4 hour timeframe and argued it could extend into a daily bullish divergence and later a 3 day signal. He added that sentiment on “crypto TL” has turned gloomy during the pullback, while he described the sharper capitulation move as occurring a little more than two weeks earlier. Solana holds $75 support as analyst maps rebound toward $100 A 12 hour SOL/USDT chart on Binance showed Solana trading inside a defined accumulation range, with repeated defenses near the $75 area and capped moves below a resistance band just under $90, according to analyst CryptoCurb, who posts on X as @CryptoCurb. The chart marked several downside probes that held near the lower boundary, followed by rebounds back into the range, a structure the analyst framed as sustained support. Solana Tether 12 hour chart (SOLUSDT, Binance). Source: TradingView / X The visual also showed two failed pushes near the upper boundary of the range, where price rolled over after testing the same resistance zone. Inside the boxed area, price oscillated between the range low near the mid $70s and the upper band just below $90, signaling compression after a broader downtrend that unfolded earlier in the month. The setup highlighted a pause in directional momentum after the prior selloff. CryptoCurb wrote that holding the $75 area keeps the path open for a move back toward the $100 region. The chart overlaid a projected path that curves higher after a final dip inside the range, then accelerates once price clears the upper boundary. The projection reflects the analyst’s roadmap rather than confirmed price action and shows how a breakout from the accumulation zone could develop if support continues to hold.

25 Feb 2026, 21:33

Vitalik’s $800K ETH Swaps Hit as Ethereum Jumps Toward $2K

Vitalik Buterin’s wallet activity drew attention after Arkham tracked nearly $800,000 in ETH swaps into stablecoins via CoW Protocol. Meanwhile, ETH bounced to about $1,915 after tapping higher time frame support, with the chart showing a double bottom setup. Vitalik Buterin Executes Series of ETH Swaps via CoW Protocol Vitalik Buterin moved large amounts of ether through CoW Protocol settlement contracts on Ethereum today, with onchain records showing repeated swaps between WETH and stablecoins. Arkham flagged the activity after tracking transfers tied to a Gnosis Safe Proxy wallet labeled to Buterin. The transactions appeared in short intervals over several hours, with each leg routed through CoW Protocol’s settlement address. Vitalik Buterin ETH Swaps. Source: Arkham / X The onchain data shows multiple WETH outflows paired with inbound stablecoins, including USDTB, GHO, and PYUSD. Individual trades ranged from roughly 23 to 45 WETH per swap, with dollar values around $43,000 to $84,000 at the time of execution. Taken together, the series of swaps added up to nearly $800,000 worth of ETH exchanged for stablecoins across the session, based on Arkham’s tracking and the USD values displayed on the ledger. The pattern suggests a batch of routed trades rather than a single market order. CoW Protocol aggregates orders and settles them through its solver network, which can split large swaps into smaller legs to reduce price impact. The use of a Gnosis Safe also indicates treasury-style wallet management rather than retail behavior, since multisig safes often serve operational or custody purposes. The transfers do not, by themselves, indicate where the proceeds will move next. However, the choice of stablecoins points to a conversion into dollar-pegged assets rather than movement to another volatile token. The activity occurred as ETH traded in a tight intraday range, with no immediate, visible price reaction tied to the individual settlements on public charts. Ethereum Tests Support as Price Rebounds Toward $1,915 Ethereum traded near $1,915 on the ETH/USDT chart as price rebounded from a higher time frame support zone marked near the lower end of the recent range. The chart shared by K A L E O on X shows ETH falling into a descending channel before pushing back toward the upper boundary. The latest candles show a sharp bounce from the local lows, with price recovering into the mid-$1,900 area after briefly dipping closer to the high-$1,700s to low-$1,800s zone. Ethereum Double Bottom at HTF Support. Source: CryptoKaleo The structure on the chart highlights two recent lows near the same support band, forming a double bottom at higher time frame support. After the second test, price reversed and moved higher, breaking above the short-term downtrend line inside the channel. That rebound places ETH back near prior consolidation levels, where price spent time trading sideways earlier in the session. The broader context on the chart shows ETH moving in a wide, choppy range since the prior selloff from above $2,000. Lower highs formed across recent swings, while buyers defended the lower boundary near the marked support. The latest rebound reduces immediate downside pressure near that zone, although price still trades below the earlier range highs closer to $2,000.

25 Feb 2026, 21:29

Bitcoin Flirts With Historic Oversold Signal as Analyst Flags Cycle Reset

Bitcoin’s weekly RSI is sliding toward levels last seen in the harshest bear market phases. Meanwhile, another analyst says the pre halving record high shifted the entire cycle clock. Bitcoin Nears Rare Weekly RSI Lows as Price Holds Above 200 Week Average Bitcoin traded near the $68,000–$69,000 area on weekly charts as a key momentum gauge slid toward levels seen only during past bear market stress. Alex Thorn (@intangiblecoins) said Bitcoin is nearing all time oversold territory, with the weekly relative strength index, or RSI, dropping to about 15.6 on his chart. Bitcoin Weekly RSI and Moving Averages Chart. Source: Alex Thorn on X (@intangiblecoins) The chart shows the weekly RSI sitting lower than almost any reading since 2016. Thorn pointed to only two lower periods: November and December 2018, when Bitcoin fell from about $6,000 to roughly $3,000, and June and July 2022, when Three Arrows Capital collapsed and Genesis later turned out to be insolvent, he said. At the same time, the price panel in the chart places Bitcoin above its 200 week moving average, marked near $58,500, while trading below shorter weekly moving averages. As a result, the chart frames a market with extreme weak momentum on the RSI, while longer term support remains nearby on the 200 week line. Analyst Says Bitcoin Cycle Timing Shifted After Pre Halving High Meanwhile, Rekt Fencer (@rektfencer) argued that Bitcoin’s market cycle no longer matches the usual halving based pattern after the asset printed a record high before the halving. He said that move “breaks the whole model” and shifts the timing window traders typically use to map tops and bottoms. Bitcoin U.S. Dollar Two Week Chart (BTCUSD, Bitstamp). Source: Rekt Fencer on X (@rektfencer) The chart tracks Bitcoin versus the U.S. dollar on a two week timeframe using Bitstamp data. It marks prior cycle durations with green labels, including 1,183 days, 1,085 days, and 847 days across earlier runs. Those brackets highlight how long each upswing lasted before momentum faded and price rolled over. Rekt Fencer said the next phase should compress into a 700 to 800 day window instead of repeating the longer timelines shown on the left side of the chart. He linked that shift to the earlier record high, which moved the cycle’s peak and pullback sequence forward on the calendar. Based on that timing change, he placed the potential cycle low in July or August. He also compared buying during the current stretch to buying around the deeper pullback zone in the prior cycle, framing it as an equivalent stage rather than a direct price match.

25 Feb 2026, 21:22

POL Price Prediction as Brazil's Largest FX Bank Expands BBRL Stablecoin to Polygon

POL price has climbed nearly 5% to $0.1166 after Brazil’s largest foreign exchange bank expanded its BBRL stablecoin to Polygon. The move connects the Brazilian real to one of the most active stablecoin networks. Market participants reacted as on-chain data also showed rising liquidity. The token now trades with a market cap of $1.23 billion and daily volume above $109 million. Brazil’s FX Bank Expands BBRL to Polygon Grupo Braza announced that BBRL will now operate on the Polygon network. The stablecoin is fully backed by Brazilian reais and is audited. It is issued by an institution regulated by the Central Bank of Brazil. The company said the expansion increases liquidity and lowers transaction costs. BBRL has been available to individuals and businesses since 2025. With Polygon integration, users gain near-instant transfers and lower fees. According to Grupo Braza, the strategy aims to integrate the digitized real with major blockchain networks. The firm stated that the expansion supports payments, transfers, and international off-chain operations. Polygon Labs CEO Marc Boiron noted that regulated stablecoins backed by fiat currencies support global commerce adoption. Polygon Stablecoin Supply and Revenue Rise On-chain data shows strengthening activity across Polygon . Data from DeFiLlama indicates total stablecoin supply on the network reached $3.26 billion. This marks a sharp increase from $2.4 billion at the beginning of February. Weekly revenue generated by decentralized applications on Polygon also rose nearly 70% in recent weeks. Rising stablecoin liquidity often supports higher transaction activity. Increased network usage can contribute to improved fee generation and ecosystem growth. Source: Defillama The addition of BBRL adds another regulated asset to Polygon’s infrastructure. A broader stablecoin base supports cross-border payments and tokenized finance use cases. The network continues positioning itself as a hub for global digital payments. POL Price Prediction as Support Holds POL price previously peaked near $0.18 before entering a prolonged correction. The price formed lower highs and lower lows before finding support near $0.09. Since then, the token has established a higher low above $0.10. The token is now compressing below the $0.12 resistance zone. Technical indicators show strengthening momentum. The Relative Strength Index stands near 58 and remains above 50. This level suggests that the bulls' control may continue further, hence a more uptrend. Concurrently, the MACD indicator has crossed above its signal line, and the histogram is expanding, indicating a rising buying pressure, which is good for POL. Source: TradingView The Money Flow Index is near 65, which indicates capital inflows without overbought conditions. As a result, the immediate resistance for POL sits around $0.12, followed by $0.125 to $0.13 however, if bearish momentum seizes the market, support levels remain near $0.105 and the $0.09 base. If POL price closes decisively above $0.12, traders may watch the $0.13 and $0.15 levels. A sustained move could open a path toward the prior range near $0.17.

25 Feb 2026, 21:05

Circle: Big Revenue Beat And Encouraging 2026 Guidance

Summary Circle Internet Group, Inc. earns a Buy rating after a strong Q4 beat and encouraging 2026 guidance, despite high volatility and recent underperformance. CRCL delivered Q4 GAAP EPS of $0.43 (vs. $0.16 consensus) and 77% YoY revenue growth, with USDC circulation up 72% and robust margin expansion. Management reiterated a medium-term 40% USDC CAGR, 38–40% RLDC margins, and $570–585M in 2026 adjusted operating expenses, supporting a bullish outlook. Technicals show CRCL breaking above its 50-day moving average, with high short interest and momentum suggesting potential for further upside. Circle Internet Group, Inc. (CRCL) shares ran laps around the bears after the embattled 2025 IPO stock soared following Q4 results. Now down 36% from six months ago, it has matched the dismal performance of the bitcoin ETF (IBIT), while sharply lagging both the Information Technology sector ETF (XLK) and the now-notorious software ETF (IGV). With Q4 numbers and 2026 guidance in hand, I have a Buy rating on the stock. The growth trajectory is uncertain, but the valuation is somewhat encouraging today—even after the 30% post-earnings jump. Technically, CRCL is above its 50-day moving average for the first time since October, with the best momentum since last summer. Of course, with very high volatility, a low position size is prudent. I'll outline my valuation and a look at the technicals. Circle Trading with Bitcoin Since Last Summer StockCharts.com In February, Circle reported a solid set of quarterly results. Q4 GAAP EPS of $0.43 beat the Wall Street consensus target of $0.16, while revenue of $770 million, an impressive 77% from the same period a year earlier, was a material $25 million beat. Its USDC in circulation rose 72% YoY to $75.3 billion , while on-chain transaction volume summed to $11.9 trillion over the October-December period (+247% YoY). Shares rocketed 32% by the following afternoon, a sharp bullish reversal from the 12.2% post-reporting plunge in November. Implied volatility remains intense, near 75%, according to data from Option Research & Technology Services. The $19 billion market cap Information Technology sector company with ties to the banking sector has a high 10.5% short interest, likely contributing to the post-earnings surge. There were also macro implications, as the broader fintech space finally caught a notable bid after Circle’s numbers were absorbed. Looking closer at the quarter that was, Circle delivered a clean beat in Q4, posting adjusted EPS of $0.52 (above the GAAP aforementioned number), while its adjusted EBITDA ex‑stock comp of $167 million was above street estimates. Really, it was the big top-line figure and margins that got the street stirring. Specifically, net other revenue, higher net reserve income, and a roughly 3‑point better net reserve margin supported a 54% adjusted EBITDA margin. Circle executives noted “meaningful” wallets increasing by 59% to 6.8 million, boosted by integrations across 30 blockchains and a growing Circle Payments Network footprint. Along with strong domestic volume and user growth, there are international upside catalysts. Namely, Circle is expanding beyond USDC with growth in its euro stablecoin, EURC, and tokenized money market fund, US Yield Coin. Moreover, the firm detailed that it's building out its Arc blockchain and developer tools, AI‑driven “agentic” payments capabilities, and new products like StableFX and xReserve. Circle: Color on Quarter Circle Also key to the bullish market response was 2026 guidance. The management team reiterated a medium‑term 40% USDC circulation CAGR, possibly assuaging investors’ concerns, along with expectations of other revenue of $150–170 million and RLDC (Revenue Less Distribution Costs) margins of 38–40%. The company set 2026 adjusted operating expense guidance of $570–585 million, shown below. Circle: 2026 Outlook Circle On the earnings outlook, there’s admittedly high uncertainty on the EPS growth trajectory . Still, even before this week’s encouraging Q4 report and 2026 forecast, operating EPS is seen rising from $1.20 this year to $2.25 in FY 2027. By FY 2028, the firm could achieve more than $3 in per-share earnings. Revenue is expected to tick up by about $1 billion year-by-year. Thus, much will depend on operating leverage. As it stands, there were 7 sell-side EPS downgrades in the three months leading into the Q4 print, with just 2 upgrades. What may surprise investors is that Circle is free cash flow positive, with $2.89 in FCF per share over the past 12 months, according to Seeking Alpha. Circle: Revenue & Earnings Forecasts, EPS Revision Trends Seeking Alpha On valuation , if we assume $3 of FY 2028 EPS and apply a 30x P/E, then shares should trade near $90. Keep in mind that the growth rate is still very high, likely above 30% through 2028, so a 30x P/E is not aggressive. Rather, it incorporates a significant margin of safety, given the high volatility and uncertainty in the crypto market. Circle Trades About 4-5x Forward Sales Seeking Alpha Key risks for CRCL include unfavorable regulations in the crypto space, perhaps prompted by U.S. Congressional changes come January 2026 and after the next general election. Of course, high volatility and more downside price action in crypto itself (bitcoin, ether, and the like) are possible perils. It’s clear that CRLC has moved in tandem with broader token prices, so more bitcoin (BTC-USD) weakness would be a tough headwind to overcome. A macro concern for Circle is the risk of rising interest rates, given its modest debt. Seeking Alpha Looking ahead, corporate event data provided by Wall Street Horizon show a projected Q1 2026 earnings date of Wednesday, May 13 BMO. No other volatility catalysts are seen on the calendar. Corporate Event Risk Calendar Wall Street Horizon The Technical Take With shares about 10-15% below what I consider to be a fair stock price, the technical situation may be on the verge of a breakout. Notice in the chart below that the stock is poised to close above its falling 50-day moving average for the first time since October. It’s also on the verge of breaking the major downtrend line dating back to the all-time high from June. The stock never sniffed testing the IPO price, which some investors were expecting. Couple that with the high short interest, and I would not be surprised to see further upside on a covering rally. Also take a look at the RSI momentum oscillator at the top of the graph. It’s now at the best mark since July, helping to confirm the price ascent. Resistance remains just above the $91 mark, while downside price action could come about now that there’s a big gap down to the low $60s from before the earnings reaction. A breakout through $91 could lead to the next stop at $108. Watch for support in the $71-$73 range (the earnings day low and where the 50dma comes into play). CRCL: Breakout Through the 50 DMA on Strong RSI Momentum, $91 Target StockCharts.com The Bottom Line I have a Buy rating on CRCL. I see fair value about $10 higher than today’s price, while the chart and short interest augur for more significant upside on this highly volatile crypto-anchored tech stock.