Invest ideasNews
25 Feb 2026, 12:00
2 Bitcoin Price Levels Could Decide What Happens Next, Coinbase Says
Coinbase says Bitcoin’s near-term path may hinge on two price zones: roughly $82,000 on the upside and $60,000 on the downside. In a new X post outlining its BTC “practical playbook,” the exchange argues that combining structural support/resistance bands with options gamma exposure sharpens the trading map for whether BTC is more likely to mean-revert, break out, or accelerate lower. The core framework starts with Coinbase’s previously shared heatmap of “real supply and demand levels,” built by aggregating market structure pivot points and volume into price bands. In that setup, the densest support cluster sits near $60,000, while the first dense resistance band sits around $82,000. Coinbase describes those areas as zones where market interest has already been established and where “significant pools of resting liquidity typically gather.” Why Bitcoin Gamma Changes The Read This week’s addition is gamma exposure (GEX), which Coinbase frames as a way to map how options dealers’ hedging flows may either absorb volatility or amplify it. The firm calls the options market a “hidden liquidity provider” and says GEX helps investors decide whether conditions favor range trades or breakout trades. Related Reading: Bitcoin Nears Death Cross That Preceded Final Bear Market Legs Coinbase explains the mechanism in practical terms: when dealers are long gamma, their hedging tends to lean against price moves; when they are short gamma, hedging can reinforce the move. “In positive gamma regions, the dominant hedging behavior often looks like a shock absorber because if BTC rises, dealers sell spot (or sell futures) to stay hedged. If BTC falls, they buy to rebalance. That ‘sell strength / buy weakness’ pattern reduces realized volatility and increases the odds of consolidation and ‘pinning’ around nearby strike clusters.” It then contrasts that with the negative-gamma regime. “In negative gamma regions, the dominant hedging behavior can flip into a trend amplifier. Rising BTC prices force hedgers to buy more while falling prices force hedgers to sell more. That ‘buy strength / sell weakness’ loop can turn ordinary breaks into fast repricing and liquidation-style cascades.” After layering GEX onto its pivot map, Coinbase’s conclusion is straightforward but consequential. “$82k remains the first gate to unlock further upside, while $60k appears to be the shelf that must hold to prevent accelerated downside,” the post says. It ties that to a “pronounced negative gamma band” in the $60,000–$70,000 region and “meaningful positive gamma pockets” around $85,000 and $90,000. Related Reading: Bitcoin COT Data: Smart Money Goes Net Long With ‘Urgency’ That combination shapes the regime expectations. Coinbase says downside into $60,000 can accelerate because negative gamma may amplify selling pressure, while upside toward $90,000 may be more prone to grinding and pinning as positive gamma hedging dampens momentum. How Coinbase Frames The Setups The playbook’s scenario analysis reflects that asymmetry. Around $82,000, Coinbase treats first-touch rejection as a credible risk in a dense supply zone, especially without a clear macro catalyst. If BTC fails there, it says mean reversion becomes the higher-probability expression and warns breakout chasers can get trapped. By contrast, a clean break above $82,000 is not defined by a brief spike but by “acceptance” — reclaiming the level, holding it, and using it as support. Coinbase argues that would suggest supply has been absorbed and raise continuation odds into higher liquidity bands, while still acknowledging the positive gamma pocket above could increase chop risk. The $60,000 zone is framed even more carefully. Coinbase says it prefers long exposure only after a reclaim signal if BTC flushes into that area, rather than trying to catch the initial move lower, because negative gamma can make the path “violent and prone to overshooting.” If $60,000 fails and BTC cannot reclaim it, Coinbase says the break could mark another “regime change” where downside extends faster than discretionary dip buyers expect. At press time, Bitcoin traded at $65,026. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
25 Feb 2026, 12:00
Bitcoin Miner Capitulation Ending: Hopeful Signs Point to Imminent BTC Price Bottom
BitcoinWorld Bitcoin Miner Capitulation Ending: Hopeful Signs Point to Imminent BTC Price Bottom Recent on-chain data and market analysis reveal a pivotal shift: the intense Bitcoin miner capitulation phase appears to be concluding, potentially signaling the formation of a major BTC price bottom. This development, reported by industry observers including CoinDesk, suggests the cryptocurrency market may be transitioning from a period of extreme stress to one of potential stabilization. The analysis hinges on key metrics like the Hash Ribbon indicator and Bitcoin’s relationship to its average production cost, drawing parallels to historical bottoming patterns. Understanding the Current Bitcoin Miner Capitulation Phase Bitcoin miner capitulation describes a period when mining operations become unprofitable, forcing less efficient miners to shut down their machines and often sell their Bitcoin holdings to cover costs. This phase typically creates significant selling pressure on the market. The current period of stress began in late 2023 and has lasted approximately three months. During this time, Bitcoin’s price declined from around $90,000 in November to approximately $60,000 in February, according to market data. This price action placed substantial financial strain on mining entities globally. Consequently, the network’s hash rate—the total computational power securing the blockchain—often declines as miners power down. This capitulation phase, while painful for miners, is a historically recognized mechanism that helps wash out excess and rebalance the market. It ultimately paves the way for a healthier foundation before the next growth cycle. The process is a natural economic correction within Bitcoin’s volatile ecosystem. The Hash Ribbon Indicator: A Signal of Changing Tides The Hash Ribbon indicator, created by analyst Charles Edwards, is a crucial tool for identifying miner capitulation. It uses two moving averages of Bitcoin’s hash rate to detect stress and recovery periods. When the 30-day hash rate moving average crosses below the 60-day average, it signals capitulation. The impending signal that this capitulation is ending occurs when the 30-day average recovers and crosses back above the 60-day average. This crossover suggests that the worst of the miner exodus is over and network hash rate is beginning to recover. Historically, buying Bitcoin after this specific Hash Ribbon crossover has been a profitable long-term strategy. For example, similar signals preceded major rallies after the bear market bottoms in 2019 and late 2022. The indicator’s approach towards this bullish crossover in the current cycle provides a data-driven, non-emotional signal that the market’s internal mechanics are healing. It reflects a reduction in forced selling from miners. Expert Analysis and Historical Context Market analysts point to the price falling below the average production cost—estimated near $66,000—as a key characteristic of this undervalued phase. When Bitcoin trades sustainably below the cost to mine it, inefficient operations are squeezed out, reducing the supply of new coins sold on the market. This dynamic creates a supply shock that can precede a price recovery. The current situation bears resemblance to the bottom formation in November 2022, when Bitcoin found a long-term low near $15,500 after an extended period of miner stress. Furthermore, industry experts note that public mining companies have used this period to upgrade equipment, secure cheaper energy contracts, and improve operational efficiency. This preparation positions them for greater profitability during the next upward cycle. The capitulation phase, therefore, acts as a Darwinian filter, strengthening the overall network by weeding out weak participants and incentivizing technological advancement among survivors. Bitcoin Mining Economics and Market Valuation The relationship between Bitcoin’s market price and its production cost is fundamental. Mining is an energy-intensive business with high fixed costs. When revenue from block rewards and transaction fees falls below operational expenses, miners face a cash flow crisis. The average production cost of approximately $66,000 serves as a key psychological and economic benchmark for the industry. Trading below this level for an extended period is unsustainable and triggers the capitulation process. Production Cost Components: The cost is primarily driven by electricity prices, hardware efficiency (hash rate per watt), and global hash rate competition. Market Impact: Sustained prices below cost force inefficient miners to sell accumulated Bitcoin treasuries, adding sell-side pressure. Recovery Signal: A stabilization or reduction in the rate of coin transfers from miner wallets to exchanges often indicates selling pressure is abating. This economic pressure valve helps reset the market to a more sustainable equilibrium. The end of capitulation suggests the market is absorbing this sell-side pressure, a necessary step before any sustained price recovery can begin. Broader Market Context and On-Chain Evidence Beyond miner metrics, other on-chain data supports the bottoming thesis. Analysts examine exchange flows, long-term holder behavior, and realized price models. For instance, the amount of Bitcoin held on exchanges has continued a multi-year decline, suggesting accumulation. Meanwhile, the MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value) Z-Score, which compares market cap to a cost basis, has entered zones historically associated with market bottoms. The macroeconomic environment also plays a role. Potential shifts in monetary policy, such as interest rate cuts, could improve liquidity conditions for risk assets like Bitcoin. Additionally, continued institutional adoption through regulated ETFs provides a new, steady source of demand that did not exist in previous cycles. This demand can help offset miner selling and provide a price floor. Potential Risks and Counterarguments While the data is promising, analysts caution that signals are not guarantees. External black swan events, regulatory crackdowns in major markets, or a severe macroeconomic downturn could prolong the bottoming process. Furthermore, the Hash Ribbon indicator can experience false signals or whipsaws in volatile hash rate environments. The average production cost is also a dynamic figure that changes with energy costs and network difficulty. Therefore, a prudent approach involves monitoring for confirmation through price action. A sustained move above key resistance levels and the production cost average would strengthen the bottoming case. The market requires time to rebuild confidence and for new demand to overcome the residual selling from the capitulation phase. Conclusion The analysis concluding the Bitcoin miner capitulation phase offers a compelling, data-backed narrative that a significant BTC price bottom may be near. The convergence of signals from the Hash Ribbon indicator, production cost economics, and historical parallels provides a framework for understanding the market’s current state. While risks remain, the cessation of miner-driven selling pressure is a critical prerequisite for any sustainable bull market. This phase represents the painful but necessary consolidation that has characterized Bitcoin’s journey before each major ascent, potentially setting the stage for the next chapter of growth. FAQs Q1: What is Bitcoin miner capitulation? Bitcoin miner capitulation is a period when mining becomes unprofitable due to low Bitcoin prices relative to operational costs. This forces inefficient miners to shut down equipment and often sell their Bitcoin holdings, creating significant market selling pressure. Q2: How does the Hash Ribbon indicator work? The Hash Ribbon indicator uses moving averages of Bitcoin’s network hash rate. Capitulation is signaled when the 30-day moving average falls below the 60-day average. The end of capitulation is signaled when the 30-day average crosses back above the 60-day average, indicating hash rate recovery. Q3: Why is Bitcoin’s production cost important? The average cost to produce one Bitcoin is a key economic benchmark. When the market price trades below this cost for an extended period, it triggers miner shutdowns and selling. A return to prices above this cost suggests improved miner economics and reduced forced selling. Q4: Has this happened before in Bitcoin’s history? Yes. Similar miner capitulation phases and Hash Ribbon signals marked major market bottoms in late 2018, March 2020, and November 2022. Each period was followed by a significant price recovery in the subsequent months and years. Q5: Does the end of miner capitulation guarantee a price rally? No single indicator guarantees future price action. The end of capitulation suggests a major source of selling pressure is diminishing, which is a necessary condition for a bottom. However, price recovery also depends on broader macroeconomic factors and the emergence of new buyer demand. This post Bitcoin Miner Capitulation Ending: Hopeful Signs Point to Imminent BTC Price Bottom first appeared on BitcoinWorld .
25 Feb 2026, 11:57
DeepSeek AI predicts XRP price for end of 2026
After hitting cycle highs close to $3.50 in July 2025, XRP has been on a decisive retreat, having lost approximately 60% of its value since, but the DeepSeek artificial intelligence ( AI ) model, nonetheless, forecasts a substantial rally by the end of 2026. Indeed, unlike much of the cryptocurrency market that peaked together with Bitcoin ( BTC ) in October last year, XRP enjoyed an earlier rally driven first by a more amicable SEC and then by the resolution to its long-running legal battle with the regulator. Despite this powerful rally, the token has since been trading much like other digital assets and has seen its prices on a steady downward trajectory since the start of 2026. Still, amidst the broad uncertainty about whether the cryptocurrency market has entered a new ‘winter’ or if it is poised for a rally later this year, Finbold sought new insights from the popular Chinese AI platform, DeepSeek. XRP price 12-month chart. Source: Finbold DeepSeek sets XRP price target for the end of 2026 As it quickly turned out, DeepSeek’s take was akin to the views expressed by banking giants such as Standard Chartered. Indeed, while it acknowledged the deluge of bearish factors, including the price collapse and massive realized losses, the AI also pointed toward the continuously high network activity, large whale positions, and a recent surge in network transactions. DeepSeek also reflected on XRP’s past performance, noting that, following a similar and massive correction in 2021 and 2022, the token entered an eight-month period of recovery that eventually saw it nearly double in value. DeepSeek analyzes XRP market and network performance. Source: Finbold & DeepSeek Under the circumstances and given the severity of the crash that the cryptocurrency had already experienced, the AI estimated a rally through the middle and the second half of 2026 is highly likely. Therefore, it sets its XRP price target for the end of 2026 at $2.80 – 102% above the token’s press time price of $1.38. DeepSeek makes late 2026 XRP price forecast. Source: Finbold & DeepSeek Interestingly, the DeepSeek’s forecast is an exact match to the estimates provided by Standard Chartered. Earlier in 2026, the British banking giant issued downward revisions for its targets for multiple cryptocurrencies, including a downgrade for XRP from an $8 forecast to a $2.80 prediction for the end of the current year. Featured image via Shutterstock The post DeepSeek AI predicts XRP price for end of 2026 appeared first on Finbold .
25 Feb 2026, 11:55
USD/JPY Outlook: Rabobank’s Sobering Analysis Reveals Limited Impact from BoJ’s Reflationist Shift
BitcoinWorld USD/JPY Outlook: Rabobank’s Sobering Analysis Reveals Limited Impact from BoJ’s Reflationist Shift TOKYO, March 2025 – The USD/JPY currency pair faces renewed scrutiny as Rabobank analysts deliver a sobering assessment: recent reflationist shifts within the Bank of Japan’s policy board may exert only limited influence on the yen’s trajectory. This analysis arrives during a critical period for Japan’s economy, where policymakers grapple with persistent deflationary pressures while global central banks maintain divergent monetary paths. Consequently, currency traders must navigate complex crosscurrents that could shape forex markets through 2025 and beyond. USD/JPY Dynamics and the Bank of Japan’s Evolving Stance Rabobank’s foreign exchange strategists recently published detailed research examining potential USD/JPY movements. Their core conclusion suggests market expectations might overestimate the immediate impact of the Bank of Japan’s internal evolution. Specifically, the appointment of more reflation-minded board members has generated speculation about earlier policy normalization. However, structural economic constraints continue to bind the central bank’s options. Japan’s aging population, massive public debt, and prolonged low inflation environment create a unique policy dilemma. These factors collectively limit how aggressively the BoJ can adjust its yield curve control framework or negative interest rate policy. Historical context reveals important patterns. For instance, the USD/JPY pair has demonstrated particular sensitivity to interest rate differentials between the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan. The following table illustrates recent policy rate comparisons: Central Bank Policy Rate (Current) 2024 Average Primary Policy Tool Federal Reserve 4.50-4.75% 5.00-5.25% Federal Funds Rate Bank of Japan -0.10% -0.10% Negative Interest Rate Policy This substantial differential creates persistent carry trade incentives that typically support USD/JPY strength. Meanwhile, Japan’s core consumer price index has shown inconsistent momentum despite global inflationary waves. Therefore, Rabobank analysts emphasize that any policy shift will likely follow a gradual, data-dependent path rather than represent a sudden hawkish pivot. Understanding the Reflationist Shift Within BoJ Governance The Bank of Japan’s policy board composition has gradually incorporated members with stronger reflationist leanings. This evolution reflects growing concern about Japan’s economic stagnation and the limitations of unconventional monetary tools. Key appointments in 2024 brought officials who publicly emphasize achieving sustainable 2% inflation. However, Rabobank’s analysis identifies several practical constraints: Institutional inertia: The BoJ maintains a consensus-driven culture that favors gradual change Fiscal-monetary coordination: Any tightening must align with Japan’s debt management strategy External vulnerabilities: A rapidly strengthening yen could hurt export competitiveness Financial stability risks: Sudden yield spikes might destabilize Japan’s banking sector These constraints suggest that even reflationist board members must operate within established parameters. Market participants sometimes overinterpret individual comments without considering institutional realities. Consequently, Rabobank projects that policy normalization will proceed cautiously, potentially limiting yen appreciation against the dollar. Expert Perspectives on Yen Volatility and Policy Transmission Financial institutions globally monitor BoJ developments because Japan represents the world’s third-largest economy and a major creditor nation. According to Rabobank’s currency strategists, the transmission mechanism between board composition and exchange rates involves multiple channels. First, signaling effects can create short-term volatility as markets interpret speeches and meeting minutes. Second, actual policy changes affect capital flows through interest rate differential adjustments. Third, inflation expectations influence real yields and currency valuations. Recent evidence supports this nuanced view. For example, when the BoJ adjusted its yield curve control band in late 2024, USD/JPY initially dropped 3% but recovered most losses within weeks. This pattern suggests that structural factors ultimately dominate temporary policy shifts. Furthermore, Japan’s Ministry of Finance maintains discretionary authority to intervene in currency markets during disorderly movements. This creates an asymmetric environment where yen weakness faces less resistance than rapid appreciation. Global Macroeconomic Backdrop and USD/JPY Correlations The USD/JPY outlook cannot isolate from broader financial conditions. Several interconnected factors will influence the currency pair through 2025: Federal Reserve policy trajectory: The pace of U.S. rate cuts directly affects interest differentials Global risk sentiment: Safe-haven flows during market stress typically benefit the yen Commodity price movements: Japan’s energy import dependency makes yen sensitive to oil prices Technical levels: Key support and resistance zones historically influence trader behavior Rabobank’s modeling incorporates these variables through regression analysis. Their findings indicate that Fed policy explains approximately 60% of USD/JPY variance over the past decade. Meanwhile, BoJ-specific factors account for only 15-20% of movements. This statistical relationship underscores why board composition changes might have limited standalone impact. Essentially, the Federal Reserve’s decisions create the dominant tide, while BoJ adjustments generate smaller waves within that larger current. Historical Precedents and Structural Economic Realities Japan’s economic history offers valuable lessons about policy transitions. The BoJ has previously attempted to normalize monetary policy, notably in 2000 and 2006. Both instances preceded economic slowdowns that forced renewed easing. Current conditions differ due to global inflation dynamics, but demographic challenges persist. Japan’s working-age population continues declining by approximately 0.5% annually, creating structural headwinds for growth and inflation. Additionally, Japan’s corporate sector maintains substantial foreign currency earnings. Major exporters often hedge currency exposure, muting the exchange rate’s impact on profitability. This corporate behavior reduces feedback loops between yen strength and economic performance. Consequently, the BoJ enjoys somewhat greater tolerance for appreciation than commonly assumed, provided movements remain orderly. Market Implications and Trading Considerations for USD/JPY Rabobank’s analysis carries practical implications for currency market participants. Their research suggests several actionable insights: Expect heightened volatility around BoJ meetings but limited sustained directional moves Monitor U.S. economic data closely as Fed policy remains the primary USD/JPY driver Watch for intervention rhetoric from Japanese officials around key psychological levels Consider option strategies that benefit from range-bound trading rather than directional bets Technical analysis reveals that USD/JPY has traded within a 30-yen range (140-170) for most of the past three years. Breakouts from this range typically require fundamental catalysts beyond incremental BoJ adjustments. Such catalysts might include coordinated G7 currency agreements, dramatic Fed policy shifts, or unexpected geopolitical developments affecting regional stability. Conclusion Rabobank’s USD/JPY analysis provides a crucial reality check for forex markets. While the Bank of Japan’s gradual reflationist shift merits attention, structural constraints likely limit its immediate impact on the currency pair. The USD/JPY outlook through 2025 will predominantly reflect Federal Reserve policy, global risk sentiment, and Japan’s underlying economic fundamentals. Traders should therefore maintain balanced exposure, recognizing that yen appreciation may prove more gradual and limited than some optimistic projections suggest. Ultimately, monetary policy normalization represents a marathon rather than a sprint for Japanese authorities, with exchange rate implications unfolding across years rather than months. FAQs Q1: What does “reflationist shift” mean for the Bank of Japan? Reflationist shift refers to increasing influence among BoJ policymakers who prioritize achieving sustainable 2% inflation, potentially through less accommodative monetary policy over time. Q2: Why does Rabobank believe this shift will have limited USD/JPY impact? Structural factors including Japan’s aging population, high public debt, and institutional conservatism constrain how quickly the BoJ can normalize policy, while Federal Reserve decisions remain the primary USD/JPY driver. Q3: How do interest rate differentials affect USD/JPY? Wider differentials between U.S. and Japanese rates typically support USD/JPY strength as investors seek higher yields in dollar assets, creating persistent carry trade flows. Q4: What key levels should traders watch for USD/JPY? Technical analysts monitor psychological levels at 150 and 160 yen per dollar, along with the 140-170 range that has contained most trading since 2022. Q5: Could Japanese authorities intervene to support the yen? The Ministry of Finance maintains intervention authority and has historically acted during disorderly movements, particularly rapid yen depreciation that threatens economic stability. This post USD/JPY Outlook: Rabobank’s Sobering Analysis Reveals Limited Impact from BoJ’s Reflationist Shift first appeared on BitcoinWorld .
25 Feb 2026, 11:53
Memecoins Shiba Inu, Dogecoin Appear Promising as Key Players Make Bullish Predictions
Memecoin forecasts are resurfacing amid market volatility, with prominent voices outlining bullish cycle targets for Shiba Inu and Dogecoin.
25 Feb 2026, 11:47
Bitcoin Adoption Hits New Record in 2026 Even as BTC Price Falls 50%
Bitcoin adoption by institutions, banks, companies, and governments reached record levels in 2025, even as the asset’s price dropped 50% from its all-time high in October, according to the financial company River Report ( published February 24). No Bear Market in Adoption According to River analysts, while Bitcoin’s price has fallen significantly, adoption among institutions and users continues to rise, indicating that market prices may not fully reflect its growing usage. Institutional investors, including businesses, governments, funds, and ETFs, collectively purchased 829,000 BTC in 2025. Registered investment advisers increased Bitcoin positions for eight consecutive quarters, investing around $1.5 billion in Bitcoin ETFs quarterly over the past two years. River highlights that millions of private investors gained access to Bitcoin through brokerage accounts, pension plans, sovereign wealth funds, and corporate balance sheets. Companies became the largest buyers in 2025, with crypto-corporate entities accounting for most transactions, growing 2.5-fold over the year. Simultaneously, 60% of the largest US banks began developing Bitcoin-based products. ”Thanks to the favorable regulatory environment in the US, banks can now store Bitcoin and offer Bitcoin products to their customers,” the report notes. Payments and Trade Turnover The number of American merchants accepting Bitcoin grew significantly. Bitcoin payments tripled, while global Bitcoin usage in payments increased by 74%. Lightning Network transaction volume surged 300%, with River estimating that the network now processes over $1.1 billion per month. State Players Join Bitcoin Adoption For the first time in 2025, Bitcoin appeared in the reserves of five countries, including Luxembourg, Saudi Arabia, the Czech Republic, Brazil, and Taiwan. River estimates that a total of 23 countries now hold Bitcoin through state mining, confiscations, or central bank deposits. Declining Volatility One key finding from River’s report is the decline in Bitcoin volatility to levels comparable with gold and the S&P 500. Analysts believe this indicates Bitcoin is being seen as a more mature asset. ”As volatility declines, the barrier to entry for more conservative investors also decreases,” the report states. ”Over time, this opens access to larger pools of capital.” Looking Ahead Bitcoin adoption in 2025 expanded across institutional savings, corporate balance sheets, government reserves, banking products, and payment infrastructure. River predicts this growth will continue and accelerate in the coming years. Historical patterns show that adoption and price often move on different timelines, as observed after the 2018 crash and the 2022 FTX collapse. Metcalfe’s Law and Future Potential Metcalfe’s Law suggests that a network’s value is proportional to the square of its users. If River’s adoption data is correct, Bitcoin’s potential value is building rapidly, leaving the question of when and under what macroeconomic conditions this will reflect in its price.
